BlogAT&T Byron Nelson Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The AT&T Bryon Nelson field has more marquee players than last year, but I have to wonder if Craig Ranch is hurting them.

This is a tournament that had a unique niche on the PGA Tour. Since 1968 it has been the most financially successful charity event on the PGA Tour, raising $172.5 million for its charity, the Salesmanship Club. Between 1983 and 2017, it was played at TPC Las Colinas, a course that many PGA Tour players may not have loved but was an excellent spot for those that attended the tournament. For the fans, they loved all of the locations they could watch golf in comfort, either under shady trees or in stands around the course. They also loved the big party pavilion located off the 2nd hole, So for years, the AT&T Byron Nelson was the in-place for fans to watch golf. The course also had excellent infrastructure with a Four Seasons hotel behind the 18th green and the Las Colinas Sports Club. These tended to erase the fact that the course wasn’t the gem-like Colonial Golf Club, 40 miles down the road in Ft. Worth and the home to the Charles Schwab Challenge was.

For years between 1990 and 2006, the year Byron Nelson died, this event every year always attracted a great field with a lot of marquee names. That’s because Byron Nelson spent a lot of time recruiting players, always being a part of the tournament, and sitting behind the 18th green to thank all of the players for coming. So for players, even though they didn’t like the course, they felt that they owed Byron Nelson with their support each year. Hey, even Tiger Woods showed up year after year. But in 2007, after Byron Nelson passed away, that all changed. Players started skipping the Nelson, and even though the lack of marquee names didn’t affect the bottom line of the tournament, fans still sold the week out the course just became a dirty secret for organizers.

So for years, the Salesmanship Club were always looking for a better facility, and the opportunity came knocking on their door when a new course was built in Dallas, Trinity Forest. For years they watched the development of this course and finally worked out a deal to move the Byron Nelson to the new home in 2018. The last year that the Nelson was played at TPC Las Colinas, they raised $6.8 million for charities. So when they moved, they expected to roll along and not only be loved by those that attended the tournament, but they were hoping that players would love the course and, in future years, gain more marquee names. But that never happened. Despite the course being better than TPC Las Colinas, the tournament got a lousy slot in the schedule, and players avoided it. On top of that, poor weather and the lack of a party atmosphere for those that attended the tournament created lower attendance. Trinity Forest may have been a good course, but it had very few trees to shade the fans from the 95+ days in the first year. So this event which was a money tree for its charities, struggled, in 2018, it netted $4.8 million and then $3 million in 2019. So when COVID canceled the Byron Nelson in 2020, tournament officials gave up on Trinity Forest. They first looked into going back to TPC Las Colinas, but they lost the tournament’s parking. So they decided on a new course, TPC Craig Ranch, which had held two Korn Ferry Tour events and had some excellent infrastructure and many shady trees. Not only did the club, which is very private, want to hold the event, but the town of McKinney, Texas, has stepped up to help this tournament be a success. The first year was ok as more people attended even though officials put limits on COVID-19 protocols. But its charity profit went up as $5.5 million was raised. So with no limitations to the gallery, the event is hoping for a more significant take for its charity.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic:

This will be the 68th edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic, formerly called the Dallas Open. The TPC at Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas was the primary site of the tournament between 1983 and 2017, when it moved to Trinity Forest Club.

Byron Nelson won the inaugural Dallas Open in 1944 by a whopping 12 strokes. Three annual tournaments were staged, with Nelson winning the first, then Snead winning the next, followed by Hogan winning in 1946. After that, the city couldn’t find a sponsor for the tournament, and after a lapse of 10 years, James Ling sponsored the event beginning in 1956. Since then, the tournament has been played every year except for 1963, when the PGA Championship was played in Dallas, and 1965 when the tournament was switched from September to the spring. In 1967 the Salesmanship club took over sponsorship, and the following year the tournament was renamed after Byron Nelson, who was born just outside of Dallas and had a 630-acre ranch in Roanoke, Texas. The tournament is the 9th oldest active event on the PGA Tour and along with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is the only event named after former players.

So this is another drastic change for fans of this event. They enjoyed everything about TPC Four Seasons but didn’t like Trinity Forest. So with the change now to TPC Craig Ranch, tournament organizers are making sure that TPC Craig Rance will be even bigger and better for the fans and their charities.

Course information:

• TPC Craig Ranch
• McKinney, Texas
• 7,468 yards  Par 36-36–72

This is the second year of the AT&T Byron Nelson being changed to its new home TPC Craig Ranch. Tom Weiskopf designed the course, which opened in 2004. In the years of planning and constructing it, the PGA Tour gave input on what the course needed to hold a tournament. Frankly, that is what the original owners wanted, to have a regular PGA Tour on it. The property is massive and large enough to handle big crowds. Each hole is framed with lots of trees down its side and, despite being under 20 years old, looks very mature. The Rowlett Creek runs through the property, which creates more challenging shots. The greens are average size at 6,800 feet and are fair with not many undulations. The greens are bent, which will give players a more appealing feel. 83 bunkers dot the course, and for the players, if the weather is good, they can have their way with this course. Last year in the weeks before the tournament, the growing season suffered from a hard freeze which stopped the rough growth which helped make the course a layup. So in looking at the stats, 70.55% of the greens were hit by the field as it ranked 13th in most greens hit. One of the reasons that happened was the lack of rough, which won’t be the case this year. The course will play to a par 72 and at 7,468 will be classified as a “Bombers Delight.” So we see a lot of long-hitters in the field as they think this course will be perfect for their game. I still believe that the secret to TPC Craig Ranch will be hitting fairways and greens. In looking at the stats for those last year, seven of the top-12 players were in the top-10 in greens hit. Another important stat is those that scramble well and find a way to get it up and down on greens missed. 65.67% of the field got it up and down on greens missed, and it was the 4th highest on tour. Another reason that long hitters had an advantage last year 2,007 birdies were made at TPC Craig Ranch, the most of any course on the PGA Tour. So this translates to those that are the best in Par Breakers do well last year 25.30% of the course had eagles and birdies made on the course, on four other courses had a higher average.

The one thing that many agree on is that the winner will have to use a lot of imagination to get around the course. The course is a par 72 and will play at 7,468, and Weiskopf has put a gambling aspect to the design. All four par 5s are accessible in two, giving players a chance for eagles as last year the par 5s played to a 4.53 average, and eight courses saw easier par 5s. All the top three in the standings last year took advantage of this. Winner K.H. Lee was 11 under on this, and runner-up Sam burns played them in 15 under. Along with the par 5s, there are three par 4s #3, #6, and #14 that could lead to birdies or even eagles. If the PGA Tour moves up the tee’s on holes 6 & 14, they could be drivable, but in the case of the 14th hole with water down the left side, it could lead to double bogeys or more. So you can see why we are calling this a bombers delight, there could be some great excitement with this course.

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $10,900
• Justin Thomas – $10,600
• Dustin Johnson – $10,200
• Jordan Spieth – $10,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900
• Xander Schauffele – $9,700
• Sam Burns – $9,500
• Will Zalatoris – $9,400
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,300
• Brooks Koepka – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,000

Have to say DraftKings has done a good job with the pricing this week, yes no argument of Scottie Scheffler being $10,900.  Two ways of looking at this, first is the negative and that Scheffler hasn’t played in a month and has lost his luster.  On top of that Scheffler finished T-47th last year at TPC Craig Ranch so maybe the course doesn’t suit him  That has happened in the past with players like Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas.  I don’t buy it, think that Scheffler will contend and that his price is fair.  Justin Thomas at $10,600 is playing at TPC Craig Ranch for the first time.  His year has been up and down, I am not going to take him just because I think he is more interested in getting ready for the PGA Championship.  I am passing on him this week.  The same with Dustin Johnson at $10,200, he is not driving well.  But we know what a great talent he is and since the course suits his game yes you have to take a chance on him.  Jordan Spieth at $10,100 is a good buy, he was T-9th last year at TPC Craig Ranch and won in his start at Heritage.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,900 is hard to judge.  He played last year at TPC Craig Ranch and finished T-39th but the big question is if his back is Ok.  He played well at the Masters finishing T-14th and the back should be well rested, but again you risk the possibility that he could withdraw which is a bad loss at his cost.  Xander Schauffele at $9,700 is a person that will go under the radar screen.  His year hasn’t been great and he missed the cut at the Masters.  but he did win the Zurich Classic with partner Patrick Cantlay, so maybe he has turned the corner for this year.  I really like Sam Burns at $9,500.  He was 2nd last year at TPC Craig Ranch and was 2nd with partner Billy Horschel at New Orleans.  Yes he is a great pick for this week.  So is Will Zalatoris at $9,400, he was T-17th last year at TPC Craig Ranch and has played great golf.  Now the key for Zalatoris is putting and I see this course good for poor putters, he could be your main choice this week.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,300 is a person to consider, didn’t play at TPC Craig Ranch last year and has had some good moments.  If he could win at the Genesis, he can win the Byron Nelson.  Brooks Koepka at $9,200 is a no for me, was burned with him missing the cut at the Masters, he missed the cut last year at TPC Craig Ranch.  SO it’s best to forget about Koepka.  Sorry but I can’t pick Tommy Fleetwood at $9,000.  He has not played the course and despite finishing T-14th at the Masters and T-10th at the Heritage his year has not been the best.  So pass on him.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Boy the money tails off fast which is rare for DraftKings, Adam Scott is $8,700, and Talor Gooch is $8,600.  It’s a no for me on Scott but Gooch is a good possibility.  He was T-39th last year at TPC Craig Ranch but like that he has won on the PGA Tour this year at RSM and was T-14th at the Masters.  Aaron Wise at $8,100 is a great choice, he was a winner in this event in 2018 and T-55th last year.  Like that he was T-6th at the Mexico Open, the course they us is a lot like Craig Ranch, so look for good things from Wise.  Talking about Mexico, Cameron Champ who is $8,000 and after playing well in Mexico should be good this week.  Last year he was T-55th at TPC Craig Ranch.  Seamus Power at $7,900 is also good choice, he was T-9th last year and despite missing his last two cuts think he will be good this week.  Alex Noren at $7,900 is another to think about.  He was T-21st last year at TPC Craig Ranch and has been very consistent in 2022.  Davis Riley is just $7,700 and looks ready to win.  He was 5th at Mexico and T-4th at Zurich, he was 2nd at Valspar so he will be a great pick this week.  Matt Kuchar at $7,700 is another great pick, he was T-17th last year at TPC Craig Ranch and has played week of late, was T-2nd at Valero Texas and T-3rd at Heritage.

Are there any bargains out there?

I like Kurt Kitayama at $7,400.  Has not played TPC Craig Ranch but was T-2nd at Mexico Open and T-15th at the Wells Fargo.   He is ready to bust open and win soon on the PGA Tour.  Boy very surprised at Luke List being just $7,300, he was 61st in this event last year and with his length should do well this week.  On this golf course Matthew Wolff at $7,200 is a great price, the course is good for his game and he is good on a hitters course.  Patton Kizzire is a great price at $7,100, he was T-3rd last year and has had his moments this year.  Lee Westwood at $7,000 is a good price for a guy that can break things open at any time.  He was T-21st at TPC Craig Ranch and has had a few moments this year.

So what will it take to play well at TPC  Craig Ranch?

• The ability to it it long and leave yourself with a wedge into the greens.  Once you get them onto the green, make some putts.  This is a course that will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, look for some really low scoring.

Weather, will be the key.

• Look for some good weather this week, every day will be in the low 90s with no rain and not much wind.  So look for some low scores