BlogPGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So the PGA Championship returns to Southern Hills in Tulsa this week’s PGA Championship. This will be the fifth time the PGA Championship is held at Southern Hills, making the venue the most used by any course in the PGA Championship. Along with the five PGA’s held on this course, Southern Hills was also the site of three U.S. Opens and two Tour Championship.

The course was high up the PGA of America pecking order but was moved up when the organization needed to replace Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey. Southern Hills has a lot of folklore to it. Augusta National, Oakmont, and Oakland Hills are the only American courses to hold more majors. The club is located in the oil-rich Tulsa area, on top of a hill with an iconic view of downtown Tulsa from the first tee.

Now making this week unique is that so many marquee names are in top form right now. For the last nine weeks going back to the Players Championship, six of the previous 11 winners are ranked in the top ten of the Official World Rankings. Since the Masters, every top-ten player except Viktor Hovland has had a finish of 5th place or better finish. So when the Tour gathers this week in Tulsa for the PGA Championship, most of the top players are coming with their game in top form. Since the Masters, we haven’t seen such a spurt of key players doing well simultaneously. Yes, K.H. Lee may have won, but finishing in the top seven was Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele, all in the top-11 of the World Rankings. This, along with all the anticipation of Tiger playing and being in much better shape than he was at the Masters, has made this week tough to pick.

Now we have to discuss the absence of Phil Mickelson, who had not played competitive golf since February 6th, when he finished T-18th at the Saudi International. He hadn’t played on the PGA Tour since January, when he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. Mickelson missed the Masters for the first time since 1994, but he has not missed a PGA Championship since 1992. This week was supposed to celebrate Mickelson’s win at Kiawah Island when he became the oldest winner of a major championship.

There is a lot to digest, and frankly, many of us are growing old over this. The truth in all of this has not been revealed, but it’s becoming a good guess to say that despite all of the money Phil has won in his three-decade golf career, he may be in severe money straits, mostly from gambling. According to a book by Alan Shipnuck, Mickelson lost $40 million between 2010 and ’14, and things in his life of late have not been good. He has sickened many folks with his money grab to join Greg Norman’s LIV tour, and frankly, as much as Phil will be missed this week, it’s probably good he isn’t playing because he would have taken the excitement of playing in the PGA Championship away. We don’t know what the future lies for Phil, but with the first LIV event being played in London in four weeks, everything will focus on what Phil’s future is.

But let’s get back to our main story, the high anticipation that many marquee names will be in the running this week. I think this is possible because Southern Hills itself has a reputation for having great champions. Of the seven winners at Southern Hills, the only one who isn’t a member of the World Golf Hall of Fame is 1970 PGA Champion Dave Stockton, who is a whisper away from getting a membership. This shows that there are no weak winners and that Southern Hills is the type of course that demands a hall of fame champion. So this, along with all of the great players in fine form, makes us think this will be a good battle. Last week at the Byron Nelson, we saw that over a dozen players were in the running on the final day. We may see the same happening this week.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Tournament information:

This is the 103rd edition of this event, one of golf’s four major championships. It’s the third oldest behind the British Open and U.S. Open. The plans for the PGA Championship were created on January 16, 1916, at a meeting of a group of PGA Tour professionals, including Walter Hagen. Their vision was to create a national championship that would rival the U.S. Open in terms of importance. Their dream came to reality just months later as the first PGA Championship Match Play event was played at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, NY, that year. Englishman Jim Barnes took home the inaugural crown.

After the inaugural tournament, the event took a two-year break from 1917 to 1918 because of World War I. The break-in action didn’t phase Jim Barnes, as he went on to win the PGA Championship in its return to the Tour in 1919. Since the two-year hiatus, The PGA Championship has only seen one other break in 1943 due to World War II. The most significant change in the event’s history occurred in 1958 when the format changed from Match Play to 72-hole stroke play.

The famed Wanamaker trophy, awarded to the winner of the PGA Championship, can trace its routes back to the beginning of golf equipment. In the early part of the 20th Century, A.G. Spalding & Bros. was the predominant maker of golf equipment; however, Rodman Wanamaker sought to create a company that would rival Spalding in the golf industry. Though his plan ultimately failed, his dream will always be remembered as he was the one that first sponsored the PGA Championship and the trophy which today bears his name.

The PGA Championship returns to Southern Hills, 15 years after Tiger Woods won by two shots.

Course information:

Southern Hills C.C.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

7,556 yards     Par 35-35–70

Cecil Canary and Bill Warren first envisioned Southern Hills Country Club; unfortunately, due to financial problems the pair had to look for Financial help. Initially, they approached Waite Phillips, a successful oilman, in an effort to convince him to help defray some of the costs. At the height of the depression Phillips, who lost millions in the stock market, could not give them money. Instead, he agreed to donate a 150-acre parcel of land, with the stipulation that Warren and Canary had to raise $150,000 in two weeks.

Canary and Warren raised the money with time to spare. The next step was to select a golf course designer. Perry Maxwell, a native Oklahoman who designed courses such as Prairie Dunes and Colonial, was selected as the designer.

The course opened in 1936 and with the support of Ben Hogan, who thought the course was one of the best in the country, was awarded the 1958 U.S. Open.  With temperatures hovering close to 100 all week the Open was named the “Blast Furnace Open.”  Since then another two more Opens have been played in 1977 and 2001.  Also, four PGA Championships have been contested and with the fifth being played this week it will be the course used the most in PGA Championship history.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Southern Hills:

The PGA Championship returns to Southern Hills in Tulsa, 15 years after Tiger Woods won by two shots.
Located in Tulsa, Oklahoma, Southern Hills has a lot of history, hosting its fifth PGA Championship along with three U.S. Opens and two Tour Championships. Of the seven champions that have won at Southern Hills, the only one who isn’t a member of the World Golf Hall of Fame is 1970 PGA Champion Dave Stockton, who is a whisper away from getting a membership. This shows that there are no weak winners and that Southern Hills is the type of course that demands a hall of fame winner.

The course was high up the PGA of America pecking order but was moved up when the organization needed to replace Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey. Southern Hills has a lot of folklore to it. Augusta National, Oakmont, and Oakland Hills are the only American courses to hold more majors. The club is located in the oil-rich Tulsa area, on top of a hill with an iconic view of downtown Tulsa from the first tee.

The course was built at the height of the depression, and they selected Oklahoman native Perry Maxwell who had just finished Colonial and Prairie Dunes, two of the best courses in the country. The course opened in 1936 and, with the support of Ben Hogan, who thought the course was one of the best in the country, was awarded the 1958 U.S. Open.
With temperatures hovering close to 100 all week, the Open was named the “Blast Furnace Open” in 1959. Since then, another two more Opens have been played in 1977 and 2001, along with four PGA Championships. After this week, the club will have hosted the most in PGA Championship history.

The course’s key to winning is of the tradition of most courses built in the 1920s, parkland courses on rolling terrain with a stream roaming through. The course is tree-lined, well-bunkered, and rough, so driving the ball is essential. You have to find the fairways because the greens are small targets to hit, with sand guarding the front part of them. The greens are 6,300 square feet in size with a lot of undulation and will be hard to putt. Making things even more brutal, if you miss the green, it’s hard to get up and down to save par like any other traditional course.

The Maxwell layout got a significant makeover in 2018 by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner. Working with course superintendent Russ Myers they completely revamped each hole by removing trees working on the bunkers and on some holes, adding them, and restoring the fairway widths to when the course first opened. At the same time, they added 425 yards to the course that Tiger Woods won in 2007, so the course will play at 7,556 yards and a par 70. In this era of hitting the ball long-only, it’s hard to believe that this course has not had much yardage added. In the 1958 U.S. Open, the course played at 6,907. 49 years and six majors later, the 2007 PGA Championship was at 7,131, only 224 yards more. With the new makeover, Southern Hills will play to 7,556 yards, 425 yards more than when Tiger won in 2007, 95 of those yards added to the par 5, 13th hole. The par 4, 7th hole saw a drastic increase of 105 yards from 384 to 489. Also, the par 4, 10th hole went from 366 to 441, so these three holes amount to 275 of the added 425 yards.

Since we have very little data to base our conclusions on for our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed at Southern Hills this week. The things to watch for, Accuracy will be the key to winning this week, not only in driving accuracy but precious iron play into the greens. This is a course that will demand a great shotmaker, and when you miss a green, you will have to show the skill of handling both sand play and pitch shots from gnarly rough around the green. If that isn’t enough, a poor putter won’t cut it on this course. The greens have a lot of undulations and mounds, so good lag putting is required along with the nerves to be able to make most of those nasty five and six-footers. When Southern Hills held the 2007 PGA Championship, it played to a 73.02 scoring average, the 3rd hardest course on tour in 2007. The first round was played at 74.29, which shows how hard the course could play if the greens get baked and are sped up. I don’t expect that to happen. Still, an average of close to par would be acceptable for the week.

So this is based on the most important stats for the Southern Hills, based on what I feel is essential, and using data from all the players in this week’s field with stats from 2022. Of course, weather plays a factor in scoring, and with the course having a good amount of rain the last two weeks, it was ok as of Sunday, with rain falling on Monday night. But after that, there won’t be any rain, and it will be hot and dry with winds which will dry things out. Over the weekend, a cold front will bring temperatures down to between 67 and 74 for the weekend. So with little rain in the forecast along with wind, the course will dry out each day, and by the weekend, it could be substantial and the greens very quick.
Since it’s essential to not only keep it in the fairway but also drive it far, I use a stat that is a bit old and not used much, but I feel crucial Total Driving which adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two necessary items for the week. In 2007 Tiger Woods won the PGA Championship, and he did it with his ball-striking skills from tee to green. He was the 14th longest driver of the week and was T-9th in Driving Accuracy, so a total of 23, which ranked 5th in total driving for the week.
Our second category is Greens in Regulation, the number of greens hit from the fairway. To score and score well on this course, hitting greens is key. Tiger showed that as a key in his victory as he hit 50 of the 72 greens and was T-4th in that stat for the week.
Our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and from the bunkers around the greens, which have close to 50 of them around them. Those stats weren’t available in 2007, but Tiger was 12th in scrambling and T-33rd in Sand Save Percentage.
Our last category is strokes Gained Putting. This is an excellent way of determining how a player does overall on the greens and since putting is a key to winning at Southern Hills, I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Total Driving: It adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from not only the short grass but from the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with a stroke figure.

The 100 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2022 (Tiger Woods hasn’t played enough rounds for official stats, plus the 20 club pros in the field and foreign players won’t have yearly stats):

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to get the stats for 100 players in the PGA Championship

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,400
• Jon Rahm – $11,200
• Justin Thomas – $10,700
• Collin Morikawa – $10,400
• Rory McIlroy – $10,000
• Viktor Hovland – $9,900
• Cameron Smith – $9,700
• Jordan Spieth – $9,600
• Dustin Johnson – $9,500
• Xander Schauffele – $9,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,200
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,100
• Brooks Koepka – $9,000

There is no surprise with Scottie Scheffler at $11,400 being our top guy. He has been on a tear the last three months with four victories, one of them coming at the Masters. Scheffler says that he loves the course. He played well at Southern Hills in the 2015 Big 12 Championship as his Texas team was the champion, and Scheffler was the individual champion. His wins on tough courses like TPC Scottsdale and Bay Hill show he can play well on tough courses. His victory at the WGC-Match Play showed he has the patience to keep sharp at all times and not let up. And his divisive victory at the Masters shows that his game is major ready. The key to Scheffler’s game is that he is not a superstar in one category and struggles in others. His game is sharp in every phase, which is hard to find in a player. No matter what, you know he will be sharp and will find a way to be in contention on Sunday. Also, Jon Rahm at $11,200 is another great pick. Yes, 2022 has not been his best, but he showed in Mexico that you couldn’t disregard him. He will be in contention. There is no better player than Rahm from tee-to-green, so that Southern Hills will be perfect for him. If he can putt half-decent, he will be hard to beat. Yes, Southern Hills sets up the best for Rahm. It’s tough to judge Justin Thomas at $10,700. He has been a major disappointment since winning the 2017 PGA Championship, 15 majors ago. We list him in such high regard because the whole golfing world knows how good he is, and you know he will surprise the golfing world with another major win. He needs to putt better for that to happen, and he did that at the Masters. Southern Hills sets up perfectly for his game. He will surprise us if he putts as well as he did at the Masters. Now I have mixed emotions about Collin Morikawa at $10,400. He has been in the top ten in his last four majors, including winning the British Open. He has played in nine majors in his short career, winning twice and being in the top-five five times. You know that he will find a way to get into contention on Sunday. The only weakness in his game is when he misses greens. He will be in the driver’s seat if he can do well at Southern Hills on the greens. Boy, the person I like is Rory McIlroy at $10,000. Yes, he is golf’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You never know which player will show up this week. On paper, he has been the best overall player for the last decade, but the big gorilla in the room is that he hasn’t won a major in 27 tries now. If he could break out of his major funk and play consistently, he will win. His problem is how different his game is from day today. Yes, he was runner-up at the Masters, but it took a final round of 64 for that to happen. He needs to figure out how to play four great rounds instead of just two or three. Southern Hills should be in his wheelhouse. As much as I like McIlroy, the complete opposite on Viktor Hovland is $9,900. He is still looking for his first top ten in the majors, this is his tenth start, and his game is too good for that not happening. He is a classic ball-striker, and Southern Hills rewards ball-strikers. His Achilles heel is around the greens. That is one of the reasons he has played poorly the last couple of months. Cameron Smith at $9,700 is someone that many will take, but I say buyer beware. Yes, he has won the Players and the Sentry Tournament of Champions and was in contention, finishing T-3rd at the Masters. He is one of the best putters on tour, but I don’t see him doing well this week. Smith struggles on old fashion, ball-striking types of courses. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year at Torrey, and he was T-38th at Winged Foot in 2020, T-64th at Bethpage in 2019, and he missed the cut at Shinnecock Hills and Quail Hollow. I don’t think Southern Hills will suit his eye. Now have to say that everyone will be rooting for Jordan Spieth, who is priced at $9,600. I think missing the cut at the Masters may have woken Spieth up. He has been working hard on his tee-to-green game, which has improved, but now putting is his problem. I feel he can find that at Southern Hills, and if he does, he could win. We have to also remember the big gorilla in the room. Yes has the added pressure of winning a PGA to complete the Slam and hasn’t played well in the PGA since 2019, but I can see him breaking out if his putting is back to normal this week. Now I wouldn’t say I like Dustin Johnson at $9,500. Normally he is considered a favorite at a major, but Johnson has been suffering from the driving yips. He has no idea where the driver will send him, but it’s not the fairway of late. Those with flawed drivers will not win at Southern Hills, and even with his great history on tough courses, I can’t see Johnson finding any magic this week. The guy I like more and more daily is Xander Schauffele at $9,300. Talk about how the best can turn it around in a heartbeat. Schauffele has shown that in his last three starts. The first turnaround came when he missed the cut at the Masters. But when he won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he had a partner and Patrick Cantlay, who is one of the best. We all thought that Schauffele needed a partner when Schauffele played his first 12 holes in 3 over par at the Byron Nelson and was destined to miss the cut. But he made eight birdies in his last 13 holes, got it to 5 under, and just made the cut. Over the weekend, he showed that he had found the magic, making 16 birdies and one eagle to shoot 65-61 and finish T-5th. He is in a good place right now, and I can see that good play continuing and him winning this week. Another favorite of mine is Hideki Matsuyama, at $9,200. Southern Hills is a course that shot-makers love. One of the best shotmakers in golf is Hideki Matsuyama, one of the best players from tee-to-Green. Matsuyama is the right person to win at Southern Hills, and it looks like his game is back in form after some back issues the last couple of months. The key for Hideki to win is putting. If he could be an average putter this week, he would contend and could win. So the gamble in picking Hideki is if the putter is not letting him down. I also like Patrick Cantlay at $9,100. Talking about a player coming into a major peaking, that is Cantlay. He played great at the RBC Heritage but was beaten in a playoff by Jordan Spieth. He played great with Xander Schauffele at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and the partnership jelled into a victory for the pair. Cantlay is one of those players that aren’t strong in one phase of the game, but all parts of his game are as good as he has no weaknesses. So he could easily stroll into Southern Hills and do what he did last Augusta at the BMW Championship, stroll out with a victory. We don’t know what kind of player Brooks Koepka will be this week.    He is priced at $9,000, but I won’t touch that, and he is a big no for me. Normally Southern Hills is a course that fits his wheelhouse, but he was ugly on other demanding courses this year, missing the cut at Torrey Pines, Riviera, and the Masters last month. I am afraid that we will get more of the same, but who knows, he may find Tinker Bell on route to Tulsa, and she could spread some pixie dust on him and revert him to the player we remember him being, but I doubt that will happen.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

To win this week, we have to pick a couple of winners in this price category. First up is Will Zalatoris, at $8,900. On the surface, there is no better tee-to-Green player for Southern Hills than Zalatoris. He is 11th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and 1st in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, but after that, his game is a nightmare. He is 185th in Strokes Gained Putting and is especially weak inputting for 4 to 8 feet. He ranks 207th in that stat. Can he find a putting game in a matter of days? Now Tommy Bolt and Nick Price weren’t very good putters either, and they found the secret in winning at Southern Hills, so there is a ray of hope for Zalatoris.  But the right choice is to take a pass on him. The same with Sam Burns at $8,800. He has shown us that he can play well with the best but let’s be a bit realistic, Burns can win on the PGA Tour, but his game is, how do we say it diplomatically, average. Maybe that is why he still hasn’t broken into the top-25 in seven major starts. The good news is that Burns is making strides every time he plays, and he is a birdie machine. Of course, anything is possible, and Burns is a likely candidate to contend at majors, but Southern Hills could be a bit overwhelming for him. Now Shane Lowry at $8,700 has to be one of your six picks. Since the Honda Classic, Lowry has been one of the most consistent players in golf. He was 2nd at the Honda, T-3rd at the Masters and Heritage, and been out of the top-13th just once in his last seven starts. The key to Lowry’s game is from tee-to-green, and he can putt well. The worst that happens if you pick him is he makes the cut, but there are so many reasons to pick him, one of them winning. Tiger Woods at $8,200 is a bit of a gamble. He is priced too high for him to be a bargain. The fact is he will not win. At best, he could give you a top ten. At the same time think he will make the cut. So he is a sentimental pick, one I am not going to do. Now a couple of folks that may seem appealing, I say no. Both Max Homa at $8,100 and Corey Conners at $8,000 will be taken, but I feel they both don’t have the experience and talent to do nothing but make the cut this week. Another player to worry about is Louis Oosthuizen at $8,000. Last year, he was phenomenal in the majors finishing T-2nd at the PGA, 2nd at the U.S. Open, and T-3rd at the British Open. He is the type of player who should play well at Southern Hills. But like Tiger Woods, Oosthuizen’s health is one to question. The last we saw him was at the Masters, and he had to withdraw after the first round due to a neck injury. He hasn’t played since, and I worry that this problem could still be lingering, so he is a no for me. One player I am going to take is Adam Scott at $7,700. He was T-12th at Southern Hills in 2007. His game suits Southern Hills, but the most important reason I like him is that he will make the cut and get you a lot of points.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the PGA Championship:

We also have to find a couple of cheap players that will make the cut and give you some points. Off the bat-like Keegan Bradley at $7,500. He has played well of last, including a T-2nd in his previous start at the Wells Fargo. More importantly, I think he will make the cut. Jason Day at $7,500 is another good pick. His game looks sharp lately, so I feel he will make the cut. The only thing that worries me is that he has this one poor round per event. Hopefully, that won’t happen. Now Billy Horschel, at $7,400 is another cheap player who will make the cut and win you many points. Justin Rose, at $7,200, is another player to look at. He will not win or finish in the top ten, but he will make the cut and again give you some points. He was T-12th at Southern Hills in 2007, another reason to choose him this week. Now it’s not every day that I am going to recommend a player who has missed the cut in his last seven major starts. But I feel things will be different for Matt Kuchar at $6,800 this week. He has played great in his previous five starts, including a T-2nd at Valero Texas Open and T-3rd at Heritage. Last week he was T-12th at the Nelson, so I can see him making the cut at a cheap price. One last player to think about is Stewart Cink at $6,700. He has been terrific the previous year and a half. He finished T-9th at Wells Fargo two weeks ago. But at Southern Hills, he finished T-32nd in the 2007 PGA and 3rd at the U.S. Open in 2001.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Southern Hills:

• Long hitters don’t have an advantage at Southern Hills.  First of all the course will play at 7,556 yards, with the wind the fairways will have a lot of rolls so length shouldn’t be a factor.  What makes the course hard, is all of the doglegs.  Every par 4 and par 5 bends in some manner and there isn’t a straight hole among them.  What happens is longer hitter sometimes runs it through the fairway.  So shot placement is very important.  Look at the list of major champions at Southern Hills, all of them Tommy Bolt, Dave Stockton, Ray Floyd, Hubert Green, Nick Price, Retief Goosen, and Tiger Woods have been controlled drivers of the ball and that is the key.  So that is the reason many feel that Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, or Scottie Scheffler could win this week.
• Look at the top-ten of the Total Driving stat of the PGA Tour,
• I think that the winner is in the top-15 on this list.
• Since the greens are very small they will also be tough to not only hit but hold.  Sharp iron play will also help along with the imagination when you do get in trouble.  But as we have seen in the last five PGA’s with winners as diverse as Phil Mickelson, Colin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Thomas anything can happen. The key is to be peaking about Wednesday right before the start of the championship. That’s what happens to the winners.
• Scrambling will be at a premium, look for good chippers like Shane Lowry or a Jordan Spieth to have a great advantage here.
• Putting is always a key to winning but this year with greens that are smaller than average the longest putt will be from 40 feet, thus giving players more chances to make putts.
• There is also the unknown factor in which the course could yield low scores to an unknown player. In 8 of the last 13 PGA’s, the winner has claimed his first major in the PGA Championship so this could be a good omen for a Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, or a Billy Horschel. As we said, both Jimmy Walker and Jason Dufner weren’t household names when they won so you never know if that will get repeated.
• Weather will play a factor like in past majors played at Southern Hills with three-digit heat and high humidity.  But with winds in the 17 to 20 mph range will dry out the course and make it very challenging.
• Of course, at the end of the day, a player that drives the ball long and straight and will make almost all of his putts inside 8 feet is going to win.  That is very easy to say, is there a human being that can do that?  Yes, there will be a few but we won’t know until the weekend.