BlogRBC Canadian Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

On Golfstats, we try to stick to news related to how players do, what they will do that week, and any accurate gambling-related information. We try not to get involved in the politics of playing golf. But now we have to talk about it because the reality of it happening is with us.

When the news of the new LIV league came up last summer, many folks dismissed it. That’s because the PGA Tour and the European Tour have gone to a lot to protect their tours to a certain extent. Many don’t remember 30 years ago, but the PGA Tour season ended at the start of October, and the game pretty much shut down for three months. But when agencies like IMG started tournaments like the Skins Game and then events expanded to regular 72-hole events like the Kapalua Invitational, the tour realized that the only way to avoid this was to expand the season to Thanksgiving. The European Tour reached out to the South African, Asian, and Australian Tours and added some of their events to their schedule, co-sanctioning them and increasing the season to 50 weeks a year, with a couple of weeks off at Christmas.

In 1995 when Greg Norman tried to start a “World Tour,” the PGA Tour stepped in to stop players from getting interested. They also gave golf a more “Global View,” the PGA Tour and other tours worldwide started the World Golf Championship series in 1999.

Since then, there has been peace on the tours, but things changed a year ago when groups backed with a lot of Saudi-backed money came about. When Greg Norman was named the commissioner of the LIV, a lot of momentum brought a lot of player interest. The premise of the LIV Golf Series is having a tour of ten events that would be different than the run-of-the-mill event. It would only have a field of 48 that would play 54 holes with no cuts. Purses would be $20 million per week, and along with a 54-hole event, there would be a team component with big money. The nine-figure total to commit to eight to ten events sparked players’ interest, especially marquee stars like Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Dustin Johnson. Around the first of the year, figures ran to unbelievable peaks in which some reports said that players like Johnson and DeChambeau were offered over $100 million to play in these eight to ten events. The money provided to players to participate in the series became monumental. Some players over 40 said they were offered $10 million to commit to the series, and frankly, how can you stop a player like Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell, or Lee Westwood from such a big payday. Their careers are just about over, and for a player like Ian Poulter, who in the last 25 years has earned $50 million, the thought at age 46 of making $10 million for just ten events is very appealing. In 2022 he has worked hard, playing in 16 events and earning just over $700,000. For a player like Lee Westwood, who turns 50 next year, playing eight events for $10 million is better than the 12 starts he has made in 2022 for just under $500,000.

Things took a turn in February when a report that Phil Mickelson wanted to play on the LIV series to teach a lesson to the PGA Tour on not being fair to the players. This and the fact that Saudi Arabia has had a reputation for human rights issues brought the core of golfers against the LIV and gave their backing to both the PGA and European Tours. In February, it was thought that the LIV series was dead in the water, that they would not get any marquee names.

Greg Norman and the LIV series pushed on with their plans, and more offers for higher fees were made to players. For a player like Richard Bland, who has played on the European Tour for the last 25 years and earned just over $9 million at the age of 49, it sounded good to get a plum appearance fee plus the ability to play in the event that only has 48 players and a purse of $20.

The first LIV event is this week in London, and when the list of the field was announced last week, a lot of names on the list were players that many figured would go. Players over 40 like Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell, Martin Kaymer, Richard Bland, Charl Schwartzel, and Louis Oosthuizen were on the list. But what caught people’s interest was the name Dustin Johnson, who committed to the PGA Tour back in February, changed his mind, and will play in London this week. On top of that, some other PGA Tour members decided to play in London, players like Hudson Swafford, Kevin Na, Branden Grace, Matt Jones, and Talor Gooch. It was a big surprise for Gooch, who is just 30 and has a very bright future on the PGA Tour ahead of him. Now the PGA Tour has promised penalties against players who participate, including a possible lifetime ban, which brought many people saying this is illegal. Some like Greg Norman say since a player is an “independent contractor,” he can’t receive these penalties. But the PGA Tour state that in taking a PGA Tour card, the bylaws say they can sanction a player via the agreement to take a PGA Tour card. So it looks like this will be fought in a courtroom in the future.

The fact that Dustin Johnson is going and has now resigned from the PGA Tour to focus on LIV Golf is shocking but understandable. The same with Kevin Na, who also gave back his PGA Tour card this week. But all of this does make sense. For a player like Na, it makes perfect sense.  He has played on the PGA Tour for 20 years and has made nearly $38 million. Each year he averages playing in 25 and 26 events. He lives in Las Vegas and has four kids.

At 38-year-old Na would like to spend more time with his family. The LIV Series will only ask him to play in eight events, and with his game at the level it is, with purses of $25 million, he will probably make the same that he has averaged on the PGA Tour, about $2 million a year. If he plays in all four majors, he will only play in half the events he usually plays in, giving him more time at home. We don’t know what he will be getting as an “appearance fee” for committing to the whole series, but it’s in the neighborhood of $2 to $10 million for a player like Na. So yes, it makes sense, Na will never be a superstar on the PGA Tour, but if he can make more and play in fewer events, it makes sense.

The same with players like Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson. Again, we don’t know their appearance fees, but they could be as much as $100 million to play in just 8 events. For Mickelson, who is 51, this is stupid money, the kind you can’t say no to. As for Johnson, who is just 37 and can win a lot more, I don’t think that it matters that he doesn’t play on the PGA Tour. Of course, Johnson is still very interested in playing and winning more majors, but we can see that Johnson only wants to play in 15 events a year in the last couple of years. So if he can play in just 8 LIV events and make at least $100 million, it makes sense

Is it right or wrong to discard his lifetime Association with the PGA Tour?

It reminds us of the 1993 movie “Indecent Proposal” starring Robert Redford, Demi Moore, and Woody Harrelson. The movie’s premise is a couple with financial problems. They meet up with a billionaire one night in Las Vegas. Redford, who plays the billionaire, likes Moore and has a solution to the couple’s money problems. He would pay the couple $1 million if he could sleep for just one night with Moore. At first, it seems easy for the couple to take the money, but over time the stigma of what they did is challenging for them to live with.  In a way that is what is happening in the LIV series.  Morning Read Bob Harig who is in England covering the LIV event is reporting that Dustin Johnson could be getting as much as $125 million to play in the LIV series for five years.  So just like in the movie “Indecent Proposal” this is more about the money than the love of the game and playing in the best competition in golf.  Again I know we are all greedy in some way or another, but is this “greed” really good for the overall health of the game?

The same with all of this on the LIV series. Yes, they are offering a boatload of money to players, and the concept is sound, a 54-hole event with a team event for a lot of money. But how old will the series be, the same 48 players on an excellent course someplace in the world? Right now, there are no world rankings given out as this is not a sanctioned tour and, in the eyes of the world rankings, just an exhibition event. So for players, how will they qualify for a major if there is no way the LIV series can gain exempts? Another big problem is that with Dustin Johnson playing in the LIV series, he won’t be able to qualify for the Ryder Cup and will have to bypass the Ryder Cup and the President Cup.  I guess just like in the movie “Indecent Proposal” Johnson would rather make the $125 million instead of playing in the Ryder Cup. No matter how big the LIV series gets, there is no way that the PGA Tour and the PGA of America will allow LIV players access to these team events. Of course, it’s no big deal for players in their late 40s or even a player like Kevin Na, who has never experienced these team events. But how would Dustin Johnson feel in September when he can’t play in the Presidents Cup. Or even more, for Phil Mickelson, who was destined to be a Ryder Cup or President Cup captain, that will never happen.  Is it really worth the money they are getting?  These guys are richer than they can image and in three lifetimes can’t spend the money they have made, so is making more money better than playing or being a captain at the Ryder or Presidents Cup?

Yes, those that decide to play in the LIV series will be generously rewarded and will play less golf, but will this slow down the competitive juices? Playing on the PGA or European Tour, the money you earn is based on how well you play. After a few LIV events, will it be just an old hat in which nobody cares who wins, but despite that, you can play poorly and still make an insane amount of money? Will this get old?  Will the Saudi’s still willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars a year if the general public doesn’t give a damn about this?

At the end of the movie Indecent Proposal, the couple realizes that their love is more important, it is more critical for them to be together, and that no amount of money is worth a night of sin. I think that the competition is more acute and that fans and players will grow old to this, despite the big money the players earn. We won’t see any answers in the next week, but let’s see if the well will run dry on the stupid amount of money the Saudis are throwing at this. Will it help the game? Absolutely not. In baseball, we can see that fans are growing old at the big salaries they have to pay. The golf fan will never see this increase, but will the players like Johnson, who earns $125 million in appearance fees, still be motivated to play their best?  Maybe I am old fashion and like to see the best win in important events like the Masters, British Open, U.S. Open, PGA Championship, and Players Championship along with each week’s event on the PGA Tour, not some exhibition match I have to watch on YouTube.

One thing, for golf fans in London, the LIV Golf Invitational-London is turning into a great bargain.  They are only allowing fans on the course during the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday rounds, and since they weren’t able to sell tickets at about $80 a round, they are now giving them away for free.

So time will tell on what happens to the LIV Series.

What are your thought about all this, tell us below.

RBC Canadian Open

First played in 1904, only the British Open, U.S. Open, and BMW (old Western Open) are older.  To think that 109 have been played, the good news with a great sponsor of RBC, along with a list of great courses that will hold the tournament, this will turn into a more important tournament in future years.

Course information:

• St. George’s G&CC
• Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• 7,014 yards     Par 34-36–70

The golf course was built as a public golf course owned by Canadian Pacific Railways Hotel and was converted into a private club in 1934. The course played host to the Canadian Open in 1933, 1949, 1960, 1968, and 2010.  This year will be the six-time the course has hosted this event and it probably won’t be the last.

One of the hidden gems of Canadian golf, it was designed by Stanley Thompson and opened in 1929 as a public golf course owned by the Canadian Pacific Railways hotel.  It was originally called the Royal York Golf Club and was a weekend retreat for clients of the Royal York Hotel. In 1946 it left the Royal York connection behind and was renamed St. George’s Golf and Country Club. The club is consistently rated in the top three in Canada and the top 100 in the world, a fact which generates a great deal of pride among St. George’s members.

Despite all of that, the club has only hosted five Canadian Opens. In 1968 when Bob Charles waged a mano-a-mano battle with Jack Nicklaus, beating him by two shots in one of the classic tales of how great putting can win over a great tee to green game.  For Nicklaus, it would be his second of nine runner-up finishes in one of the only tournaments that Jack never won.  The event went back to St. George’s in 2010 when despite a final hole bogey Carl Pettersson shot a final round 67 to win over Dean Wilson.

So if the course is so great why did it take 42 years to return in 2010?  Just like with Riviera Country Club, the site of the Northern Trust, it’s in a neighborhood in which the neighbors don’t really want the event and all of the road closers.  Also, a problem is the property doesn’t have much room and a lot of hospitality tents and such are off grounds on one of the major roads for the area.  With those main roads closed, buses and traffic are being rerouted causing some problems.  Lastly, the course doesn’t have a suitable range for practice so players have to use a field off grounds and transport players back and forth, another hassle.

After years of work by the members to get the Canadian Open, the course will play to a par 70 and will be at 7,014 yards this week.  The course is very old fashion, with mature trees lining the sloping fairways as undulating greens demand precise iron shots.  It’s on rolling terrain and Thompson put the holes through valleys.

One of the main characteristics of the course is the bunkers, 103 of them that are not only tough to play from, but many of them give you a challenge of playing down to the greens, because the sand is higher than the greens, making the shot even tougher the slope of the greens away from the bunkers making it hard to stop them.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at St. George’s this week.

This is based on the most vital stats from St. George’s Golf & C.C., based on data from the 2010 RBC Canadian Open, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
The RBC Canadian Open is the only North American event on the schedule not to have been contested in both 2020 and 2021 because of COVID-19. The membership of St. George’s Golf and Country Club voted in favor of keeping the event at its course after the cancellation of 2020 and again in 2021, and the championship will return to the club for the sixth time. The last time it was played was in 2010, and of those in the field this week, there are 29 that played in 2010 (Luke Donald-3rd, Greg Chalmers-T4th, Charley Hoffman-T4th, Adam Hadwin-T37th, Ricky Barnes-T37th, Mark Hensby-T48th. Camilo Villegas-T65th and Brian Stuard-T69th. The following players missed the cut in 2010; Nick Taylor, David Hearn, Bill Haas, Cameron Percy, D.A. Points, Johnson Wagner, Sean O’Hair, Jonathan Byrd, Mike Weir, Danny Lee, Brandt Snedeker, Pat Perez and Robert Garrigus, who withdrew). The odds of these 29 being in contention, let alone winning, are very slim.
The golf course was built as a public golf course owned by Canadian Pacific Railways Hotel and was converted into a private club in 1934. The Stanley Thompson gem, first constructed in 1929, is consistently ranked as one of Canada’s top courses. The course played host to the Canadian Open in 1933, 1949, 1960, 1968, and 2010. It’s considered one of the hidden gems of Canadian Golf. For many, they may say if it’s a great course, why has it been used just three times in 62 years? Its location in a crowded neighborhood with many homes and a tiny practice area was why the course wasn’t used. They have worked out the problem of fans not having to park by shuttling them in from remote parking lots. For the driving range, there is a makeshift practice range at the Islington Golf Club, and the players take an eight-minute shuttle down Islington Ave just over a mile, and it works well to take care of the problem. Another issue, the club is so tight with homes that there isn’t room for hospitality tents. Still, that problem has been taken care of as the course has many hospitality tents, and all of the logistics and catering are done with the closure of Islington Avenue. The same with all of the T.V. facilities, which are located on Islington Avenue.
The course is very old-fashioned, with mature trees lining the sloping fairways as undulating greens demand precise iron shots. It’s on rolling terrain, and Thompson put the holes through valleys. After a decade of work by the members to get the Canadian Open back, it’s just about the same course as it was in 2010, but the course will play 32 yards shorter than it played in 2010, something rarely seen. The course will play 42 yards more than it did in 1968, showing the greatest of the layout.
Rain will play a significant factor in things despite all of the work and time the club has waited two extra years to hold the tournament. On Tuesday, a storm will drop an inch of rain, and even with drizzle on Wednesday, showers on Thursday will bring a very soft course. The weekend will also see scattered rain.
Generally, with a dry and fast St. George’s, every game phase would have been examined, so will the wet conditions make the course any easier? In 2010, a wicked storm dropped close to two inches of rain, and the course played the last three days very softly. Despite that, the course played to a 69.64 average in 2010, just a bit under par. It was the 29th hardest course out of 51 courses in 2010.

In looking at our four categories, our first is Fairway Accuracy. It’s what makes this course challenging, and in 2010 St. George’s ranked 24th hardest on tour, so you have to be straight to play well. Next up is Greens in Regulation. St. George’s has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour at 4,000 square feet, so hitting the greens, especially from rough is hard. In 2010 the course ranked 31st. So with small greens that are set up on a crown, if you miss the greens, it’s essential to save par. In 2010 the course ranked 17th in scrambling, so it’s a necessary element if a person is going to win. Our last stat is putting inside ten feet. In 2010 it ranked 12th. There are a lot of putts in that range, so you need to make them.
I wish I could tell you the kind of player that wins at Royal St. Georges. Honestly, nobody even remembers the 2010 winner Carl Pettersson, so maybe with the U.S. Open a week away, a person that hasn’t won before wins this week. Now the field is not very deep. Yes, you have Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, and Matt Fitzpatrick, but it’s not that solid after that. Still, this tournament has a lot of history and is played on an excellent course so that we will have a great finish.

*Fairway Accuracy: The percentage of time a tee shot comes to rest in the fairway

*Greens in Regulation: The percent of the time a player was able to hit the green in regulation

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

Here are the 106 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all 106 player stats for the RBC Canadian Open

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,100
• Justin Thomas – $10,900
• Rory McIlroy – $10,500
• Cameron Smith – $10,300
• Shane Lowry – $10,100
• Sam Burns – $10,000
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,900
• Harold Varner III – $9,700
• Corey Conners – $9,600
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,500
• Tony Finau – $9,400
• Adam Hadwin – $9,300
• Sebastian Munoz – $9,200
• Chris Kirk – $9,100
• Keith Mitchell – $9,000

An important week for Scottie Scheffler at $11,100.  A week before the U.S. Open and we will see how he does on an old fashion, Northeast golf course with lot’s of trees, rough, blind shots and small greens.  The kid from Dallas hasn’t had much experience on these type of courses, so we will see this week a preview on how he will do next week at Brookline.  After the debacle of Southern Hills and the PGA Championship, Scheffler regained some of his mojo at Colonial, which is an old fashion course that you have to play differently.  Yes his cost is high but he does earn a lot of points, two weeks ago at the Charles Schwab he earned 89 points in finishing second.  Just like Scheffler crashing at the PGA Championship by missing the cut, Justin Thomas who is at $10,900 wins the PGA Championship and then misses the cut at the Charles Schwab.  I think this is a hint that he may have a tough time this week and next.  He doesn’t have much of a track record on old fashion, northeastern type of courses other than finishing T-8th at Winged Foot in 2020.  He missed the cut at The Country Club in the 2013 Amateur so I think it’s best to sit out on him at such a high price.  I am at the point of frustration on Rory McIlroy at $10,500.  After the Masters I thought he would be great, but he was 5th at the Wells Fargo, 8th at the PGA Championship and T-18th at the Memorial again not being able to put together four rounds.  I hope he doesn’t win this week, want him to save up that energy for Brookline.  But for some odd reason, just like he did in this event in 2019 he likes to win before a major and then falls flat.  So I guess we will see how he does this week, but I bet he will get a top-ten.  Cameron Smith at $10,300 is another of those players to worry about.  As I said last week before the Memorial, he struggles on old fashion, northeastern courses and what did he do?  Shot 67-68 to lead on Friday.  But he showed us the struggle he has on these courses shotting 72-77 over the weekend.  Still, he is working hard on this part of his game and will do good this week.  Another frustration for me is Shane Lowry at $10,100.  Felt he was long overdue to win and in his last two starts has struggled finishing T-23rd at the PGA Championship and T-32nd at the Memorial.  So can he come back and play well like he did at the Masters and Honda?  Think he will be good this week and next.  Sam Burns at $10,000 has been inconsistent of late, but along with missing the cut at the Masters and Byron Nelson won Valspar and Charles Schwab.  Burns was born, raised and lives in Louisiana and I don’t think his game sets up very well for old fashion, northeastern courses so Burns is a no for me.  Now Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,900 is a yes.  He was T-5th at the PGA, T-2nd at the Wells Fargo and was 3rd at the Memorial in 2020.  Fitzpatrick won the U.S. Amateur in 2013 at Brookline so I think this week and next is right up his alley.  After what happened at the Charles Schwab in which he was tied for the lead with seven holes left and played them in 10 over, Harold Varner III at $9,700 is a big no for me.  Corey Conners at $9,600 is a Canadian that many will root for this week, but his record in Canada is terrible, in six starts only made one cut finishing 80th, so take a pass on him this week.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,500 is a good bet, he has been consistent and feel he will do well this week at St. George’s.  Tony Finau at $9,400 has been up and down this year, but he see his game improving and him doing very well this week.  Have no idea how Sebastian Munoz is priced so high at $9,200.  Sorry but I just don’t think they is worth the money, yes he was T-3rd at the Byron Nelson but that course is drastically different than St. George’s.  Chris Kirk at $9,100 is someone to think about, has a good record at the Canadian Open and has played well of late.  Keith Mitchell at $9,000 is a not, he is great on Bermuda but think he will struggle in Canada.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Jhonattan Vegas at $8,500 is worth the money, he has won twice in this event at Glen Abbey, think he will be fine at St. George’s due to hitting a lot of greens and ok putting.  The same with Mackenzie Hughes at $8,400, he has the game to play well this week and has played well at Glen Abbey.  Brendon Todd at $8,200 is also a good choice, he stats of being 5th in Accuracy, 12th in scrambling and 11th in putts inside ten feet tell me he has the game to play well this week.  He was 3rd in his last start at Colonial.  Aaron Rai at $7,900 is not a household name, but has been very consistent in 2022 and will play well in his first Canadian Open start.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the RBC Canadian Open

Hard to find any bargains, first one that I like is Ryan Armour at $7,300.  He hits the ball accurately off the tee, can hit greens and make putts.  At this point your are just looking for guys that can make cuts, Rory Sabbatini at $7,200 is a safe bet to do that.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  There are 10 of them and they range from 370 to 486.  The 1st, 10th and the 11th are the only ones under 400 yards.  So that means five holes over 465 yards with the 486 17th and 465 18th hole.  So if you can manage the par 4s, you will do well this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The course does favor long hitters because there are not many doglegs.  So for the player that hit it long and straight, that is a big advantage.  So yes look for bombers to do well.
• Greens are contoured and well-bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.
• Putting will be the key to success at St. Georges.  Look at the stats from 2010, the course ranked 17th in putting average, 12th in putts inside 10 feet and first in putting from 10 to 15 feet. Those that putt well will get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.
• With a field that isn’t loaded with marquee names, I would say a first-time winner is very probable.  That tends to be the trend on the PGA Tour when a new course is used, a rookie tends to win.
• Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it.  You have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.   Now Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event, and this will be his 29th start in this event, but a win won’t happen.  Along with Weir, there are 20 other Canadians in the field with PGA Tour players  Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, Adam Svensson, Michael Gligic, Taylor Pendrith, and Roger Sloan in the field.  Other Canadians competing on exemption include David Hearn, Aaron Cockerill, Stuart MacDonald, Albin Choi, Myles Creighton, Jared du Toit, Brendan Leonard, Wes Heffernan, Callum Davison, and Max Sekulic along with Team Canada amateurs AJ Ewart and Johnny Travale.
• The biggest tip I can give you with this tournament going to a course that many haven’t seen.  Check the who’s hot list, if a player is doing well over the last six weeks, he will probably play well this week.