BlogU.S. Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It seems that this is the new direction of the USGA.  The USGA is a totally different organization than it was a few years back with Michael Whan taking over.  We are now seeing a new direction for the USGA, over the last few years the USGA has tried new courses like Chamber Bay, Erin Hills, and Torrey Pines.  In the case of Erin Hills and Torrey Pines the decision was motivated by money, they could pack in more people and hospitality tents on the grounds.  But if you look at future venues all of them are all, established U.S. Open venues.  The only one holding the Open for the first time is Los Angeles Country Club in California and it won’t have the same problems that Chambers Bay, Erin Hills, or Torrey Pines has.  L.A. Country is an old fashion gem of a course that has never allowed any events played on it since the 30s.  But they are now ready to open the course up and that is the reason it’s going to be played on it next year.  Trust me when I say, it’s a great course and players will love it.

This week will be a bit strange due to the LIV news, but once balls are in the air on Thursday it will be all about the golf.  The course is perfect and we should see a really good tournament.

So who will win is the million-dollar question.  I can unofficially say this when the course is easy you seem to get more marquee names winning.  Just look at Congressional, Rory McIlroy won, Tiger won at Torrey, Jordan won at Chamber Bay.  Then on the hard courses like Bethpage in 2009, Lucas Glover, Pebble in 2010 Graeme McDowell and Webb Simpson in 2012 at Olympic.  Again no rhyme or reason but you get what I mean.

One last thing about this week that shows more parity. This year there are 47 U.S. Open rookies. Last year at Torrey there were 43. In 2019 39 played Pebble but we have seen more. In 2018, 50 of the 156 players were U.S. Open rookies.  This number seems remarkable until you realize it’s par for the U.S. Open.  In 2017 there were 52 U.S. Open rookies, in 2016 there were 51, and in 2014 there were 53 rookies. All of these are extraordinary numbers.  In the history of the U.S. Open, the year with the most first-timers was 86 in 1919.  That was the first Open played after World War I and the field increased in size.  If you look at the most first-timers since World War II, it was 75 in 1948.

Looking at the U.S. Opens since 1970 the most first-timers were 53 in 1977, 1980, and 2011.  Why the change is a mystery but one thing is for sure, there are more players with a chance of winning this year.

Championship information:

The inaugural U.S. Open was slated for September of 1895. However, the Open and the inaugural U.S. Amateur were delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the more popular sporting event, America’s Cup yacht races. Finally, the first U.S. Open was played on Oct. 4, 1895, on a nine-hole course at the Newport Golf and Country Club in Newport, Rhode Island. The first U.S. Open was somewhat overshadowed by the first U.S. Amateur tournament, played concurrently at the Newport Golf and Country Club. The small field consisted of just 10 professionals and one amateur. Horace Rawlins, the assistant at Newport Golf and Country Club, captured the first U.S. Open. The format for the tournament was 36 holes squeezed into one day, with four trips around the nine-hole course in Newport.

In 1898, the U.S. Open switched to a 72-hole format, two days of 36-holes. For the first few years, the field was routinely riddled with amateurs as well as British and Scottish professionals. The popularity of the event dwindled until Americans began to dominate, starting with John McDermott in 1911. The U.S. Open experienced a dramatic jump in popularity in 1913 when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old American amateur, defeated famed British professionals Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in a playoff. Popularity for the U.S. Open began to soar even higher in the early 1920s. In 1922, the U.S. Open sold tickets to the event for the first time. A year later, Bobby Jones, an amateur golfer from Georgia, won his first of four U.S. Opens. By 1924, an enormous influx of applicants to compete in the U.S. Open forced the USGA to hold sectional qualifying to determine who would receive an entry into the field.

In 1926, the format for the tournament was again switched. Players would play 72 holes, 18 holes on each of the first two days, followed by 36 holes on the third and final day. The changes to the U.S. Open format were paralleled by an almost systematic phase-out of the amateur player. Though amateurs still compete annually, John Goodman was the last amateur to win the U.S. Open, taking the 1933 crown at the North Shore Country Club in Glenview, Illinois. Jack Nicklaus’s second-place finish at the 1960 U.S. Open is the best finish by an amateur since Goodman’s victory in 1933.

The U.S. Open saw relatively few changes between 1935 and 1954. In 1954, the course was roped off from tee to green for the first time and broadcast on national television. Arnold Palmer’s historic comeback victory in 1960 further boosted the tournament’s popularity. But it was the 1962 U.S. Open, in which Jack Nicklaus defeated Arnold Palmer in a Monday playoff, that would catapult “America’s Championship” to the forefront of the golf world.

Over the next 18 years, from 1962 to 1980, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win four U.S. Opens. Fans flocked to the U.S. Open in droves to see the budding rivalry. In 1965, to accommodate the growing fan base, the U.S. Open switched from the three-day, 72-hole format to the current, four-day, 72-hole format.

In 1971, Lee Trevino’s victory at the U.S. Open was the catalyst as he went on to play, arguably, the three most significant weeks of golf. After winning the U.S. Open, Trevino captured the Canadian Open crown, followed by the British Open crown. A feat that to this day has not been matched. Trevino and the already well-established Nicklaus and Palmer created a trio that further launched the event into the American limelight. In 1977, ABC began live coverage of the final two rounds of U.S. Open play. By 1982, upstart cable channel ESPN was broadcasting the Thursday and Friday rounds.

In 1994, the U.S. Open at Oakmont was the venue for Ernie Els’ first victory in America. Els and Loren Roberts both shot 74, while Colin Montgomerie shot a 78. Els claimed the title by defeating Loren Roberts on the second sudden-death playoff hole.  Els and a slew of other foreign champions paved the way for the first qualifying tournaments held outside the United States.

But for the masses, nothing will compare to Tiger Woods’s victory in 2000 at Pebble Beach.  First of all, it was the 100th U.S. Open. Secondly, it was held on one of the great courses in the world that comprised the beauty of an oceanside course that stunned the viewers and fans but on a tough course in which wind played an important factor. It was also perfect timing for Tiger Woods to win his first Open title in a dominating way. At 12 under, he finished 15 strokes ahead of Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez to become the first double-digit winner relative to par.  The win brought the U.S. Open into a different focus as it began its second decade of play.

Course information:

• The Country Club’s Open Course
• Brookline, Mass.
• 7,254 yards
• Par will be 35 – 35  = 70

Based on the course setup for the championship, the Course Rating is 76.1. Its Slope Rating is 150.

USGA Championships held at The Country Club

• 1902 U.S. Women’s Amateur: Genevieve Hecker def. Louisa A. Wells, 4 and 3
• 1910 U.S. Amateur: William C. Fownes Jr. def. Warren K. Wood, 4 and 3
• 1913 U.S. Open: Francis Ouimet def. Harry Vardon and Ted Ray, 304 (72) – 304 (77) – 304 (78)
• 1922 U.S. Amateur: Jess Sweetser def. Charles “Chick” Evans Jr., 3 and 2
• 1934 U.S. Amateur: W. Lawson Little Jr. def. David Goldman, 8 and 7
• 1941 U.S. Women’s Amateur: Elizabeth Hicks def. Helen Sigel, 5 and 3
• 1953 U.S. Girls’ Junior: Mildred Meyerson def. Holly Jean Roth, 4 and 2
• 1957 U.S. Amateur: Hillman Robbins Jr. def. Dr. Frank M. Taylor, 5 and 4
• 1963 U.S. Open: Julius Boros def. Jacky Cupit and Arnold Palmer, 293 (70) – 293 (73) – 293 (76)
• 1968 U.S. Junior Amateur: Eddie Pearce def. W.B. Harman Jr., 6 and 5
• 1982 U.S. Amateur: Jay Sigel def. David Tolley, 8 and 7
• 1988 U.S. Open: Curtis Strange def. Nick Faldo, 278 (71) – 278 (75)
• 1995 U.S. Women’s Amateur: Kelli Kuehne def. Anne-Marie Knight, 4 and 3
• 2013 U.S. Amateur: Matthew Fitzpatrick def. Oliver Goss, 4 and 3

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at The Country Club.

The U.S. Open is returning to The Country Club, a course that held the Open in 1913, 1963, and 1988. The course also held the Ryder Cup in 1999. The course also has held in 1910, 1922, 1934, 1957, 1982, and 2013 U.S. Amateur.

This is the 122nd edition of this event, on a course that has changed every year the Open goes to it. How much the course has changed over the years makes it so flexible. When the club opened in 1882, golf was a game played over in Scotland, despite a very few tiny golf courses in Charleston, Savannah, and then the famous St. Andrew’s course in New York. As for The Country Club, when it opened in 1882, it focused more on outdoor activities like equestrian and other outdoor games. In 1893 six holes were laid out with the course overlapping a pre-existing race track. In 1894 The Country Club became one of the five charter clubs which founded the USGA. At the same time, the course was expanded to nine holes and then 18 holes in 1899.
In 1902 the club held the U.S. Women’s Amateur and then the U.S. Amateur in 1910. In 1913 the U.S. Open was played at The Country Club, and a 20-year-old amateur Francis Ouimet, who lived across the street from the 17th hole, surprised the world by winning an 18-hole playoff against two of the best players in the world, Harry Vardon and Ted Ray. The win sparked the golfing world by capturing the imagination of the American public. It showed that golf was not the elite sport that many thought it was, and the number of golfers in America tripled a year after Ouimet won.
The club expanded to 27 holes in the 1920s when William Flynn built a third nine holes. The course was built in an era before heavy machinery could cut through the natural terrain. Instead of cutting valleys for the fairways, the fairways go up and down the hills, blocking your target from view. In the nearly 130-year history of golf at Brookline, many architects have had a hand in the evolution of the three nines. In the beginning, many of the holes were laid out not by experienced designers but by a trio of club members, primarily with the assistance of the second club professional, Alex Campbell, who joined the club in 1896. As I said, each U.S. Open after 1913 saw changes to the course. For the 1963 U.S. Open, a composite of the 27 holes was used to make up the 18-hole course. The Main Course is composed of the Clyde and Squirrel nines. The other nine holes are the Primrose Course, an executive course built-in 1927 by Flynn.
For major competitions, the course picked parts of all three nine holes. In this configuration, three and a half holes from the Primrose Course (1st, 2nd, 8th, and 9th) are used to replace three holes of the Clyde. This layout has been used for major competitions since the Primrose Course was built. For the 2022 U.S. Open, the Championship Course will be altered from the course used in prior championships, with the par 4 4th hole of the main course removed and the par 3 12th hole of the main course added, resulting in a 7,254-yard par 70 layout. Geoffrey Cornish made changes before the 1963 U.S. Open. Rees Jones supervised revisions to the course before the 1988 U.S. Open. Gil Hanse oversaw a course restoration leading up to the 2013 U.S. Amateur.
One of the oddities of the previous three U.S. Opens at The Country Club, all three were won in playoffs. The last time the U.S. Open was at The Country Club was in 1988, when Curtis Strange shot 71 in an 18-hole playoff to defeat Nick Faldo by four shots. Besides the win by Quimet, the second most prominent moment in Country Club history has to be the 1999 Ryder Cup when on the final day, the Americans won 8 and a half of the possible 12 points to cap the largest come-from-behind victory in the history of the Ryder Cup.
The first thing folks will wonder about is the shortness of the course. At 7,254, it will be 431 yards shorter than Torrey Pines from last year. It will be 215 yards shorter than Winged Foot in 2020. Three holes under 400 yards have the possibility of being driven. The first is the 5th hole, at 310 yards, it plays uphill to a small green ringed by rough and bunkers. But at the yardage and on days that the USGA moves up the tees, the question will be taking a stab at the green or laying up with a 7-iron. Two holes later, at the 7th is a 375-yard hole. Again, the longest hitters in the game could get it either on or just short of the green, giving them a little chip. Again the USGA has tightened the fairway in front of the green, so if you miss the fairway, you could have a tough pitch to a small, fast green. The last short par-4 is the 17th, at 375 yards, dogleg left, which if you cut off the fairway is drivable. In the 1913 playoff, Harry Vardon found himself a shot back of Ouimet and gambled by taking the shortcut, and even though he hit what he thought was a perfect drive found a greenside bunker, and he had a tough shot left. He made a bogey while Ouimet played the hole by laying up in the fairway and pitching to the green, making a birdie to wrap up the victory.
One of the keys that will make the course play tough is the rough. Since the course is over 100 years old, there are between 50 to 80 different strains of grass, so if you hit it in the rough on one hole, you may have to maneuver fescue rough, which is hard to thrash out of. On another hole, the round could be Blue grass or even ryegrass, while on another hole, you may have to get it out of poa annua. The point is that each strain of rough has different characteristics in getting the ball out, making each shot an adventure.
Along with the narrow fairways bordered by thick USGA rough, the greens will make things even more formidable. Even though Gil Hanse has spent the last six years making the greens about 20% bigger, today’s greens average just under 4,400 square feet. This makes them the second smallest greens in the majors behind Pebble Beach’s 3,900 square feet. So they are tough to hit from the fairway and close to impossible to hit when playing out of the rough. Some greens tilt from back to front, while others have ridges and humps making them very demanding. On top of the speed, look for the greens to be bone dry. On top of that, since the greens are poa-annua, they will be even more challenging, especially in the late afternoon.
But the biggest challenge for the players is one that they don’t experience much. It’s something that will drive players crazy because it’s been primarily eliminated in today’s golf: the blind shot. Either off the tee or from the fairway to the greens, there will be at least 12 times in which players will have to play to totally or partially blind shots to their target. This will create a different mental test that most players under 35 have not encountered. They will have to clear their minds of the feeling of it being unfair. Yes, they will have a tough time judging the proper distance and putting a shot in the right direction to pull off the shot.

Since we have very little data to base our conclusions on for our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed this week at Brookline for the U.S. Open. Like any challenging U.S. Open course, the importance is to keep the ball in the fairway and hit as many greens as possible. If you miss the fairway just a little and have a good lie in the first cut of rough, getting it on the green is possible. But from the second cut to the third cut of rough the going is hard. For those with poor lies in the rough, it’s best to gauge it back into the fairway and try to scramble for a par. But what gets players in trouble is trying to muscle it onto the green, and most of the time, they advance the ball back into the rough by the green, making the next shot impossible and then bringing the possibility of double bogey in play. So keeping it on the short grass is the key to a good week. There will be more bogeys than birdies, in the 1988 U.S. Open, only 1,057 birdies were made, while there were 11,815 bogeys and 251 double bogies.

The things to watch for, Accuracy off the tee will be the key to winning at The Country Club, also length will help get it down the fairways. Of course, the rough is dreadful and should be avoided since, in most cases, the rough is five inches high. So our first category is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. Again remember there will be a lot of blind tee-shots that players will have to contend with, so getting the right line and distance is essential. Also, remember, for the very long hitters, three par 4s could be driven, and the par 5, 8th hole could be hit in two.
Our second category is Greens in Regulation. Remember, hitting the narrow fairways off the tee is crucial, and the small greens will be hard to hit. Most of the greens are raised so a shot to the green could bounce over the green, missing it and making it tough to get par.
Our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. We use this over scrambling since the 18 greens are protected by 60 bunkers, so players will get up and down from bunkers about as often as off the green.
Our last category is Strokes Gained Putting. This is an excellent way to determine how a player does overall on the greens and since putting is a key to winning at Winged Foot, I don’t see any better stat to end this stat look with.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: This determines how many strokes are saved or wasted in driving off the tee, figuring hitting the fairway, and hitting it far.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This stat figures out who gets it up and down the most when green is missed.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with a stroke figure.

Of the 156 players in the field, 85 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to all stats for players in the U.S. Open

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,300
• Justin Thomas – $10,900
• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Rory McIlroy – $10,500
• Cameron Smith – $10,200
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Viktor Hovland – $9,700
• Xander Schauffele – $9,600
• Jordan Spieth – $9,500
• Dustin Johnson – $9,400
• Will Zalatoris – $9,300
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,200
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,100
• Shane Lowry – $9,000

Powerful field with a lot of guys to choose from.  Now the difference with this week is the course.  The Country Club is a big mystery for most of these players since it hasn’t had a U.S. Open since 1988.  They will find a course that is really tough, because of the thick rough in the fairways, and the postage-stamp greens that are rock hard.  But players have had the last two weeks practicing on some courses like Brookline at the Memorial and RBC Canadian Open at St. George’s.  So look seriously at how a player did the last two weeks on these courses to see how they will play this week.

The DraftKings favorite is Scottie Scheffler at $11,300.  Now he was hot as a pistol two months ago with his four wins culminating with his Masters win.  It seems he has found some form of kryptonite and other than his runner-up finish at the Charles Schwab has been lukewarm at best.  He will get some points but his price is too high and best to pass on him this week.  Justin Thomas at $10,900 is a very good choice, his game has been great and it should suit Brookline.  I think he will be in the running so despite the high cost is worth the price.  Jon Rahm at $10,800 is like Scheffler, best to take a pass on him.  His driver is perfect for Brookline, he is also great at hitting greens.  But he may not be good for the course, he has a tendency to be a hot head when things don’t go his way and there are a million ways for things not to go Rahm’s way.  Best to take a pass on him.  Can’t say that for Rory McIlroy at $10,500.  I realize he won just last week in Canada and could be spent for this week.  That was a problem when he won the Canadian Open in 2019 and the next week was not sharp at the U.S. Open.  But I think Rory is playing so well that not much will stop him.  Cameron Smith at $10,200 is a no, just don’t think the course will suit his game, which he struggles on old fashion, ball-striking type of courses.  So save him for St. Andrews where he will be a superstar.  Collin Morikawa at $10,000 is a no, just don’t think the putter is sharp now and he hasn’t played well since the Masters.  Viktor Hovland at $9,700 is a big no, he still hasn’t finished in the top ten in a major and it won’t be this week.  Xander Schauffele at $9,600 has a reputation to play well on tough courses like Brookline.  His game has come around after a slow start to the season and feels he is someone that will play well.  Jordan Spieth at $9,500, is a good choice for this week.  He has won three majors, including a British Open, and in last year’s British at Royal St. George’s he handled the blind shots well finishing T-2nd. Think that Brookline will remind him a lot of Chambers Bay, site of his U.S. Open victory.  I can’t say no fast enough on Dustin Johnson at $9,400.  He is so shaky right now that even if he was just $7,000 I would have to think hard to pick him. Will Zalatoris at $9,300 is a yes, he is good on tough courses and should do well like he did at the PGA Championship.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,200 is a toss-up.  2022 hasn’t been the best and blind shots may not be his cup of tea, he missed the cut last year in the British Open at Royal St. George.  But he could surprise us, just don’t think it will be this week.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,100 has the game to play well, but you never know when he will do well.  Could Brookline be a lot like Augusta and stir up his tee to green game and do well, I think he will.  Shane Lowry at $9,000 is a yes, he has the game to play well, and maybe the blind shots of Brookline will remind him how well he played winning the Open at Portrush, a course with a lot of blind shots.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Joaquin Niemann at $8,900 is someone to consider especially when you see he finished T-3rd at the Memorial.  But now we are getting to the three best buys of this week.  First is Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,500, he has played great all year and has knocked on the door of victory.  He does know how to win, he was the victor at the 2013 U.S. Amateur at Brookline, so that should get your attention.  Next up is Sam Burns at $8,300, yes has no real U.S. Open record, but has played great all year and I don’t see that stopping him this week.  Also, like Tony Finau at $8,200, he has played well the last few weeks and is hot coming into Brookline.  Max Homa at $8,100 is also a good choice, he plays well on tough courses and this could be up his alley.  Aaron Wise at $7,800 could be a wise choice since he was 2nd at the Memorial and played well this year.  The U.S. Open always seems to find some player like Wise, who does well.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the U.S. Open

Hard to find “bargains” at the U.S. Open but here is a couple.  The most important thing to look for is a player that will make it 72 hole, Talor Gooch at $7,500 fits the bill.  He was T-14th at the Masters and T-20th at the PGA Championship and despite deciding to play on the LIV Tour, he is still good for this week.  Webb Simpson at $7,400 is also a great choice, his U.S. Open record his good and again he should make the cut.  Now the biggest bargain of the week could be Davis Riley at $7,300.  He has finished in the top-13 in seven of his last nine starts and is the most consistent player in golf right now.  He will not only make the cut but make you a lot of points, great choice.  Harold Varner III at $7,300 is also a good pick, he has had a good year and should make the cut and earn a lot of money.  Justin Rose at $7,100 is another great pick for the money, he was T-4th last week in Canada.  Stewart Cink at $6,700 is another choice getting for a low price someone that will make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the U.S. Open:

Since 1960 only nine players have made the U.S. Open their first PGA Tour victory; Jack Nicklaus, 1962; Lee Trevino, 1968; Orville Moody, 1969; Jerry Pate, 1976; Ernie Els, 1993, Retief Goosen, 2001, Michael Campbell in 2005, Angel Cabrera in 2007 and Graeme McDowell in 2010.  But take a look at that list. Jack Nicklaus and Jerry Pate were U.S. Amateur champions, Retief Goosen, and Ernie Els had almost a dozen wins around the world before they won the U.S. Open and Lee Trevino became one of the greatest players in the world.  Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell won a lot around the world, especially in Europe.   So of these first-time winners, you have Orville Moody, who went on to win the Senior Open but still wasn’t that great of a player.  The point here is to look for a big name to win the U.S. Open.

So could that open the door for another first-time winner?  Probably not, of the 47 first-timers, I don’t see one that could win, lots of good players and prospects for the future but not today.

12 years ago the 41-year streak of not having a European Tour player winner was finally broken by Graeme McDowell.  Since then the floodgates have opened as other Europeans like Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose in 2013, Martin Kaymer in 2014, and Jon Rahm in 2021.  With the course being so hard, don’t be surprised if another European wins this year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

So what will it take to win at The Country Club?

• Major key is being great with the driver, combination of driving it straight and long.  Success is hitting off of fairway grass, if you’re in the rough your asking for trouble.
• If you are in the rough and your ball is deep, forget the ego trip, grab a wedge and gauge it back into the fairway.  Those that gamble from the rough bring double bogey or worst into play.
• Not only is it important to put your next shot from the fairway on, but also make sure to putting it on the right side of the hole.  The greens have lots of undulation and if your on the wrong side, the putt is near impossible.  Keeping it on the right side makes life a lot easier.
• For this week par is the players best friend.  Brookline is a not long, but a tedious battle in which boredom can spell disaster, so make sure to play for par and even though birdies are hard to come by, you can still make them.
• The players that manage the weather will have the advantage.  It will start out on Thursday to be perfect, in the low 80s with very little rain.  But a front moves in on Friday with temperatures in the mid-80s but with rain on Friday and Saturday.  Good news, not much in the way of wind.
• Experience and getting to know the course is very important.  Caddies always are important for players, but this week will be more important in helping players judge not only the shots into the green but helping with breaks on the greens.
• Another important this to remember about The Country Club is having a lot of patience.  Each week these players compete in an environment in which you make a birdie every fourth hole or a total of five to six times a round. There is only one easy par 5 at The Country Club (The 8th).  But the course does have three par 4s under 375 so birdies could be made and who knows, maybe with good conditions that hole could be drivable. Still it will be hard to make birdies and the players will just have to be happy with a bunch of pars.

Hitting to the greens, how tough?

A lot will depend on if the pin is tucked away close to a bunker or hard to get close.  It’s always important to remember the undulations of the greens and players will have to take that into account when preparing for a shot.  Another problem is you will have several blind shots to greens making them even harder  A player has to be smart; there is a lot of danger around the greens, so you have to make sure a shot is to the right part of the fairway to give you proper access.  The greens will also be hard (unless rain makes them too soft), so lots of shots won’t hold the greens and roll off into a hard situation.  Sometimes getting it up and down from rough off the grass will be hard, the same with greenside bunkers, they won’t be easy to get up and down from.  I think that a person that scrambles well will be the winner this week.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player winning the U.S. Open?

No.

In the past 30 years, it’s been won by grinders like Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera and Graeme McDowell, who may not look pretty but knows how to place shots in the right spots.  There have been your off the wall winners like Bryson DeChambeau and also been superstars like Tiger Woods, who were expected to win.  It’s been won by great tour players like Tom Kite and Corey Pavin, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major.  It’s been won by up and coming stars like South African’s Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy, who won it in 2006.

Who can forget the stars that many thought were past their prime, like Payne Stewart and Hale Irwin?  It’s also been won by tour grinders like Lee Janzen and Webb Simpson. Last but not least the stray qualifier like Steve Jones, who surprised the golfing world with his victory in 1996, plus Michael Campbell in 2005, who was contemplating not going to U.S. Open qualifying the night before.  How about 2009 winner Lucas Glover, you show me a person that had a winning Lucas Glover ticket, and I will show you my winning Irish sweepstake ticket.  In past Opens, we said that it was a wide-open field.  But I feel that only the best will contend this week.