BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

With Xander Schauffele winning the Travelers we have seen a remarkable run of golf.  Going back to the Valero Texas Open, 12 weeks ago everyone that has won an event was in the top 90 in the Official World Rankings.  When J.J. Spaun teed off in the first round at San Antonio, he was 204th in the rankings.  It’s been quite a run as seven of the top ten have won in this period, showing how really hard it is to win on the PGA Tour.

For the first time since the Zurich team event back in April, the tour has an event that is easy to miss with the John Deere.  For the first time since 2016 and only because it was an Olympic year, the John Deere is not the week before the British Open.  Since 2004 this event (other than in 2016) was the lead-in for the British.  With the advent of the tour co-sanctioning the Genesis Scottish Open, the John Deere is played this week and a lot of those playing in Scotland are taking the week off.

The Deere was created over 50 years ago by local businessmen in Davenport, Iowa, to have a community sponsor event bring on professional golf.  It started small but gained in stature thanks to the communities that supported it. The towns of Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa, lie on the Iowa side of the Mississippi River, while the city of Moline and Rock Island are on the Illinois side.  Down the road is Silvis, the home of TPC Deere Run, which sits along the Rock River.  Many don’t realize that John Deere has its world headquarters in Moline, Illinois, and has been a sponsor of the tournament since 1999.

Since 2000 TPC Deere Run has been the home of the tournament, and the venue is one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters.  Those that hit it long have no real advantage, a matter of fact, those that hit it long have to throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway.  The course plays at 7,289 yards, but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of roll.  In an era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has three par 4s over 450 yards.  On top of that, all three par 5s are accessible in two even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners’ ranks of the last decade have short hitters like Lucas Glover, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, and Michael Kim winning.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

History of the John Deere

The John Deere Classic was created in 1971. Founded by a businessman in Davenport, Iowa, it began as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. It stayed in Davenport through 1974, where it subsequently moved to the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic remained in Coal Valley until 2000 when the move to Silvis coincided with the opening of the TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After an opening-round 1-under, Wie found herself in a prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day and 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on #15 as she proceeded to pull her drive severely, then from their chip into a bunker, and eventually, made a double bogey. Wie ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Since 2004, the event has been the week before the British Open (except for 2016), making it always a struggle to get a good field of players.  In 2008 tournament organizers came up with a plan to help attract players.  They made a charter flight available in which players would be able to leave the Sunday after play.  It was a comfortable journey as players enjoy big business class seats with minimal hassle in getting to the British Islands since the plane landed at an airport near the venue of the championship.  But that is no more as the John Deere is just another PGA Tour event.

TPC Deere Run

• Silvis, Ill.
• 7,289 yards     Par 35-36–71

The course rating is 75.6 rating with a slope rating of 145 from the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play.  It also sells local memberships.

Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River, and the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.

In more recent times, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near-perfect setting for the property’s destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over a 100 years.

TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of ancient philosophy and feels to the golf course, it’s an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 76 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape.  Those bunkers just got a fresh renovation so they should come more into play this week. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.

The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised, and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property, with its dramatic pitches and rolls, intact. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.

• In 2021 the TPC Deere Run was the 41st hardest course (out of 51) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.51 average.
• The event in 2020 due to COVID-19
• In 2019 the TPC Deere Run was the 35th hardest course (out of 49) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.51 average.
• In 2018 the TPC Deere Run was the 46th hardest course (out of 51) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.38 average.
• In 2017 the TPC Deere Run was the 38th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.75 average.
• In 2016 the TPC Deere Run was the 39th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.90 average.
• In 2015 the TPC Deere Run was the 43rd hardest course (out of 52) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.648 average.
• In 2014 the TPC Deere Run was the 42nd hardest course (out of 48) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.764 average.
• In 2013 the TPC Deere Run was the 36th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 69,397.

So the course is easy, in 2015 1,803 birdies (along with 32 eagles) were made during the week, the 3rd most birdies made on any course on the PGA Tour.  Last year 1,802 birdies and 47 eagles were made.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Deere Run.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Deere Run, based on data from last year’s John Deere, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
The most important thing to realize about TPC Deere Run is that it’s one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters and those that hit it long have no real advantage. Matter of fact, those that hit it long have to throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway. The course plays at 7,289 yards but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of role. In an era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has three par 4s over 450 yards. On top of that, all three par 5s are accessible in two even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners’ ranks of late have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, Michael Kim, and last year’s champions Lucas Glover who ranked 130th in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2021. I know that the longest player in golf Bryson DeChambeau won in 2017, but that was an anomaly.
Lots of birdies are always made on the course, last year 1,802 were made with only four courses seeing more birdies, Sedgefield, Silverado Resort, TPC Summerlin, and TPC Craig Ranch.

The greens are easy to read and do well on them so this course also caters to players who don’t putt very well. Now the tournament is being played the week before the British Open so the course should be firm and fast. Now TPC Deere Run went through a major renovation since last year’s event. In the renovation, all 80 bunkers were completely rebuilt, with four being eliminated. Some other changes stretched the course 21 yards, but the bunker work will make the course a notch tougher.
So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving makes a difference. But instead of looking for those that hit it long, those that hit it short will at least have as much of a chance as the longer hitter. So it’s a perfect time to look at these strokes gained stats as our first three categories, first Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and then Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. After that Strokes Gained Putting is important because this is a course that is easy to putt, not much undulation in the greens so poor putters have a good chance this week. We saw that last year in Lucas Glover winning, in 2021 Glover ranked 137th in Strokes Gained Putting, but for the week at John Deere Glover was 19th. So you can see the combination, short hitters that are poor putters have a great chance this week. Last is birdie average, those at the top of the list will make a lot of them and it’s a requirement to win. The course is pretty easy, last year it played to an average of 69.51 so a shot and a half under par making it one of the easiest courses on tour. Last year it ranked 41st hardest in a field of 51, so you can see that the winner does need to go low. Normally we would say that a non-marquee name will win, but that isn’t the case. In the last 12 years, we have seen Steve Stricker win three times, Jordan Spieth win twice along with Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, and Kenny Perry so the event has seen some marquee champions. On top of that, defending champion Lucas Glover isn’t a slouch, he won the 2009 U.S. Open.
So after weeks of playing on tough courses in the U.S. Open, Canadian Open, Memorial and the PGA Championship players get a break and this week is all about making the most birdies and eagles.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Measurements off the tee to see who saves the most strokes with perfect drives on the course compared to the field

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: See who saves the most strokes with the shots into the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with a stroke figure.

*Birdie average: Calculates how many birdies a player makes per round

Of the 156 players in the field, 108 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2022.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to see all the stats for the John Deere

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Webb Simpson – $10,600
• Adam Hadwin – $10,400
• Sahith Theegala – $10,100
• Jason Day – $10,000
• Dennis McCarthy – $9,900
• Maverick McNealy – $9,500
• Charles Howell III – $9,300
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout – $9,100
• Scott Stallings – $8,900

Another hard week, these events in which the top players really haven’t done much make havoc on picks.  Last week Webb Simpson was $8,500, this week $10,600.  Sahith Theegala was $7,300 last week, he is now $10,100 this week.  Even Jason Day was $8,100 last week, this week $10,000.  The point I am making, you aren’t going to find many bargains in the over $9,000 category.  Of those that are in the top echelon, the best is Adam Hadwin at $10,400.  He has had five top-ten finishes in 2021/22 with a best finish of T-4th at the Valero Texas Open.  He has only played twice at TPC Deere Run, the last in 2016 he was T-8th.  Two weeks ago he was T-7th at the U.S. Open and really played well so we can recommend him.  As for Webb Simpson at $10,600, he was injured and missed from mid-January to mid-April.  I realize his game is coming around, he opened up the Travelers with a 64, adding a 69-66 before finishing up with a 71.  Normally I would say ok with Simpson, but little do people know that he is coming back from injury and is still a few weeks back before he is normal.  I say no, even with his good play at Travelers.  Sahith Theegala at $10,100 will have a few takers after his T-2nd at the Travelers, but despite that and he finished T-5th at the Memorial I say to take a pass on him this year.  Jason Day is at $10,000, but that is still way too expensive considering he was T-3rd at the Farmers and T-10th at the Zurich with partner Jason Scrivener.  Day has a pair of T-15th finishes in the John Deere Classic, but this isn’t going to be Day’s week.  Dennis McCarthy at $9,900 had a T-5th at Memorial and T-7th at the U.S. Open.  But he missed the cut at the Travelers and in three starts at the John Deere missed the cut twice and was T-34th so nothing to give you a sense that you’re getting your money’s worth.  Maverick McNealy at $9,500 is a possibility, in two John Deere starts was T-18th last year.  Statistically speaking he is the best off of 2022 starts, is 20th in birdie average, 40th in Strokes Gained Putting, and ok off the tee and hitting to the greens.  Realistically he hasn’t played well since the Genesis and he really isn’t the kind of player to do well in this event.  He also has missed the cut in his last two starts, but who knows maybe Tinkerbell will splash some pixie dust on him.  Now Charles Howell III at $9,300 may be a good choice, in 13 John Deere starts has made 12 cuts with three top-ten finishes.  Was T-6th in 2019 and T-23rd last year.  In 2022 he has just one top-ten a T-4th at the Valero Texas Open, a course similar to Deere Run.  Hey, he is 43 years old, Glover was 41 last year when he won so of anyone in this category, I am the most comfortable with Howell.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $9,100 is a possibility, he has never played at the John Deere but has a few good finishes of late, T-12th at Byron Nelson and T-15th at Colonial.  The biggest problem with him is his lack of making birdies which is a problem.  Scott Stallings at $8,900 is one of those players that seems to make a splash once a year.  Stallings has played well at TPC Deere Run finishing T-5th in 2017 and he was T-4th at Colonial and T-8th last week at the Travelers so maybe he is hinting that he is ready to win again.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Patrick Rodgers at $8,800 is a possibility, he was runner-up at the Deere in 2017 and has made a lot of cuts of late.  I like Nick Hardy a lot at $8,700.  He has played twice at the John Deere, and was T-43rd in 2018 but I like his good play of late, was T-14th at the U.S. Open and T-8th at the Travelers.  So he is a great pick, maybe the best of anyone in the field.  Cam Davis at $8,400 is a thought, like that on courses that favor short hitters, Colonial and Hilton Head he has top-tens in those events.  Also, think that last year’s winner Lucas Glover at $8,300 is still a good choice.  He hasn’t been great in 2022 but steady making 16 cuts in 21 starts.  Now I also like Chez Reavie at $7,900,  His record at TPC Deere Run is solid including a T-5th in 2011 and T-18th last year, but he has been solid lately, including a T-8th last week at the Travelers.  Also like Adam Schenk at $7,700, he was T-4th last year and T-6th in 2019.  He has been up and down in 2022 but has had enough good finishes to make me want to pick him.

Some of the “bargains” this week at John Deere

Ok, we have to dig for players from this group, first like Martin Laird at $7,500.  He has played ok in his three Deere starts finishing T-28th last year.  He was T-13th last week at Travelers, think he will be ok and make the cut.  Talking about another oldie but goodie how about Zach Johnson at $7,200.  He has played at the Deere 19 times and missed only three cuts the last time in 2007.  He was T-34th last year but like that he has won this and finished 2nd, three times.  Again the reason you are taking him is to make the cut.  Ryan Moore at $7,200 is another great choice, in 12 Deere starts has only missed one cut, and was T-2nd last year.  I also like that he hasn’t played that bad lately, think he will make the cut.  Another oldie, but goodie pick is Scott Brown at $7,000.  He has three top-tens in nine starts, was T-4th last year, and was T-10th last week on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

• Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Gossett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007, Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th in 2013, but Brian Harman was T-1st in 2014 with Jordan Spieth finishing T-33rd in 2015.  In 2016 Ryan Moore was T-1st in greens hit with 60 of 72 while Bryson Dechambeau was T-11th in greens hit with 57 of 72 in 2018 Michael Kim was 3rd hitting 60 greens and in 2019 Dylan Frittelli was T-10th hitting 56 greens.  Last year Lucas Glover hit56 of 72 greens and ranked T-15th.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• A stat that nobody will believe: You would be hard press to know how many top-20 world rank players have won the last 12 John Deere’s?  It’s 6; the only ones not in the top-20 of the world rankings was Jordan Spieth (120th) in 2013, Brian Harman (115) in 2014, Ryan Moore in 2016 who was 59th the week of the Deere and in 2017 with DeChambeau who was 144th, in 2018 Michael Kim (473) and in 2019 with Dylan Frittelli (133).  Last year Lucas Glover entered the John Deere 115th in the World Rankings.
• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002), Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in their victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997, they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways. Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56 while in 2013 Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.  In 2014 Brian Harman was T-8th hitting 45 of 56 fairways, in 2015 Jordan Spieth was 39th of 56 and ranked T-60th. In 2016 Ryan Moore was T-10th hitting 46 of 56 fairways while in 2017 Bryson DeChambeau was T-32nd hitting 42 of 56, in 2018 Michael Kim was T-2nd hitting 46 of 56 and in 2019 Dylan Frittelli was T-7th hitting 44 of 56.  Last year Lucas Glover was T-24th hitting 41 of 56.
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only ten players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006, Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010/2011, Brian Harman in 2014, Spieth in 2015, Moore in 2016 and Michael Kim in 2018.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third-round leader Daniel Summerhays in 2013.  In 2017 DeChambeau was T-5th, 4 shots back, Michael Kim was the leader by five in 2018 and Dylan Frittelli was T-5th and two back of the leader.  Last year Lucas Glover was T-12th, four shots back of third-round leader Sebastian Munoz. So don’t count on the third-round leader to win.
• The myth of the John Deere was to think about an underdog, or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth winning and in 2017 with Bryson DeChambeau.  Last year former U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover won.  With no British Open charter, we will see what happens.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first-time winners.  Since 1973, 23 rookie winners including eleven of the last 21 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006, Jordan Spieth in 2013, Brian Harman in 2014 and Bryson DeChambeau in 2017.  Michael Kim continued the streak in 2018 as did Dylan Frittelli in 2019.  But the streak ended with Lucas Glover.
• One last essential element, the winner this week will be making lots of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012), 1,930 in 2013 and 1,844 in 2014, the most of any course on the PGA Tour in ’14 while in 2015 the course gave up 1,803 birdies.  In 2016 1,747 birdies were made while in 2017 there were 1,805.  In 2018 there were 1,865, in 2019 1.885, and in 2021 1802 were made so look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
• The weather has been off and it shouldn’t be that bad all week except for on Friday with afternoon thunderstorms.