BlogGenesis Scottish Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So for the first time, this event along with the Barbasol Championship are co-sanctioned events, in this case of the Scottish Open which means that 75 players from the PGA Tour can play this week.  As you can see by the strength of the field, this has created a very big field of marquee names, just about every big start except for Rory McIlroy are in this year’s field.  There are also a fair amount of marquee players of the DP World Tour competing this week.  As we have seen with the defection of players to the LIVgolf, both the PGA Tour and the European Tour are thinking outside the box.  Now this partnership this week and next happened way before LIVgolf became what it is now, but both tours realize they need to stick together or lose a lot to LIVgolf.

Now because of the merger the field this week will be the strongest non-major, non-WGC event in DP World Tour history.  It’s a win-win for all, for the American players this is a great way to get used to playing on a links course as most of them get ready for the British Open next week

Course information:

• The Renaissance Club
• North Berwick, Scotland
• 7,293 yards     Par 36-35–71

The Scottish Open returns to The Renaissance Club for a fourth straight year.  The property sits on a bluff overlooking Blackness Bay to the west and the North Sea.  The club sits next to Muirfield on the west, which has been the site of 16 British Opens.  On the east is the 36-hole Archerfield Links.  At one time the land that the Renaissance Club is on was a portion of the 1000 acres of Archerfield Estate.  Even though the property that Renaissance is on natural windswept dunes, the land has a lot of trees on it.  Britain’s Forestry Commission planted pine and sycamore trees on 300 acres of land and when it was decided to build the club, they hired famous architect Tom Doak to design the course.  He was tasked with building a course with very little earth moving to showcase the natural features.  The property was completely filled with trees and Doak cleared a portion of them, but still kept a good number and made them part of the design of the course.  In the initial design stage, Muirfield owned the land where the 9th through 13th holes are located.  But the property that the Renaissance Club owned was dense walls of trees next to Muirfield.  In order to gain more protection and protect their boundary, Muirfield traded the dunes for a bigger boundary of tree-lined area.  It was a good trade for both clubs but made it possible for Doaks to design some great holes on the dunes near the sea. The course was built in 2008 but was revised in 2014.  Two-time British Open champion Padraig Harrington helped out as a player consultant, to help make the course playable for the Scottish Open.

Now the charm of the course is that it is very playable when the wind doesn’t blow, but when it does, it’s tough.  Example of that, in windless years the winners played the course in 22 under in 2018 and 18 under last year.  But in windy, cold conditions in 2020 (the event was played in October because of COVID) Aaron Rai’s winning score was 11 under par.  But that is the nature of links golf, in no wind very attainable, but in windy conditions a really tough test.

The key stat for the winner:

A modern links course, the winner will have to be able to play all the shots in any conditions.  In looking at the stats from 2019, ’20, and ’21 the most important stat is not hitting lot’s of fairways or hitting lots of greens but putting.  In fairways hit 2019 champion Bernd Wiesberger ranked T-22, 2020 winner Aaron Rai ranked T-17th, while last years winner Min Woo Lee ranked T-56th.  Greens hit was the shame, nothing spectacular.  In hitting greens again not impressive numbers In 2019 winner Bernd Wiesberger ranked T-21st in greens hit.  In 2020 winner Aaron Rai ranked T-3rd while Min Woo Lee was T-31st last year.  So how did these three win?  Putting.  In 2019  Wiesberger ranked T-31st in number of putts.  In 2020 Rai ranked T-31st while last year Lee was 2nd.  So the point is, The Renaissance isn’t a course for shotmakers or even bombers.  It’s a course that the average player can do well on, probably the reason it’s three winners were Bernd Wiesberger, Aaron Rai and Min Woo Lee.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

This is a course that you can overpower, you have to make sure to keep it in the fairway but they are wide and generous.  The greens are average length and have undulation in them, but they are very fair and aren’t as fast as many American courses.  The fairways at Oakmont could be almost as fast as the greens at The Renaissance, but this isn’t to detract the course, with the weather conditions sometimes having fast greens could be unfair.

As of each week, it’s important to look and see who is hot and playing well in the weeks leading to the Scottish Open.

The weather looks like it’s going to be a lot like San Diego, but a bit colder.  Looking at the forecast for not only this week but for the week of the British Open shows that every day will be perfect with partly cloudy skies, with no rain, and between 66 and 69 each day.  But look for windy conditions, an average of 14 to 18 mph that could be higher on the dunes.  So with near-perfect conditions, we could see some low scores this week unless the wind plays more of a factor.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,200
• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Justin Thomas – $10,600
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,100
• Xander Schauffele – $9,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,600
• Collin Morikawa – $9,400
• Will Zalatoris – $9,300
• Sam Burns – $9,200
• Cameron Smith – $9,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,000
• Jordan Spieth – $8,900

A great event played under different conditions, look for those that have done well at Renaissance and are playing well.  Remember this, we are seeing links golf which is totally different than what we have seen in the last couple of months.  Scottie Scheffler at $11,200 is a good choice, we know how well he is playing plus he was T-12th last year in this event.  Jon Rahm at $11,000 is also a good choice, was T-7th last year, but be aware his game isn’t as crisp as it was last year because of sub-par putting.  Justin Thomas at $10,600 is also a great pick, he was T-8th last year and T-9th in 2019 at Renaissance and his game has been sharp of late.  The same with Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,100, he was T-2nd last year at Renaissance and won the U.S. Open three weeks ago.  He has not played since so should be well-rested, but he will be bombarded by media and fans, just part of winning a major.  Xander Schauffele at $9,900 is a great pick, won the Travelers and has found that maybe dad needs to spend more time helping him.  Schauffele played well last year at Renaissance finishing T-10th.  Now we can see a lot of great choices in the top five, but we have our first no in Patrick Cantlay at $9,600.  He hasn’t played in Scotland since finishing T-12th at the British at Carnoustie.  Now his game has been sharp since missing the cut at the PGA Championship but I still am a bit worried, just don’t think his game is great for links golf.  Collin Morikawa at $9,400 is a possibility, he didn’t play well at Renaissance last year but won the British the next week. but I worry that his game isn’t there.  Yes he finished T-5th at the U.S. Open but had a 77 so he is not 100%, I am taking a pass on him.  Will Zalatoris at $9,300 is always a danger, yes you have to consider him but with so many other great choices a lot of folks will take a pass at him.  Sam Burns at $9,200 I wonder about.  We have not seen many players from Louisiana embrace links golf and I just don’t think Burns game is a match for links golf, so taking a pass on him.  Cameron Smith at $9,100 seems like a stretch, he missed the cut in his last start at the U.S. Open.  But I feel he will be a threat this week and at St. Andrews.  He is a great wind player and look at the places he won this year, Kapalua and the Players, both courses have links feel with wind so this week could play up to Smith’s liking.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,000 is a no for me, just feel he is a fish out of water on links courses and this is not his fit.  Jordan Spieth at $8,900 is someone to think about, he has never played in the Scottish Open but has played well on links courses over the years.  I think he will be a pleasant surprise not only this week but at St. Andrews.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Ryan Fox at $8,500 is a thought, yes has not played well at Renaissance, but did finish T-6th in 2018 and T-4th in 2017.  But what I really like the most out of him is his good play of late, was 3rd at the BMW International and 2nd last week in Ireland.  Another good pick is Justin Rose at $7,900, he has played well in the Scottish Open winning it in 2014 at Royal Aberdeen a course like Renaissance.  His game has been steady of late including a T-4th at the RBC Canadian.  Lucas Herbert at $7,600 is a good buy, he finished T-4th at Renaissance last year and in 2020.  He won at Bermuda in windy conditions and thinks this course is great for him.

Some of the “bargains” this week at John Deere

Alex Noren at $7,500 is someone to think about, has won the Scottish Open and played well in the British, he is going to make the cut and he is cheap.  Aaron Rai at $7,400 is another good pick, he won at Renaissance in 2000, and his game is good right now, and feels he will make the cut and get you points.  Matt Kucher at $7,400 is another person that you can count will make the cut.  Edoardo Molinari at $7,000 is also worth the money, has been ok making the cut in his three starts at Renaissance, and has been good this year.  Henrik Stenson at $7,000 is also worth the gamble.  He won the British in 2016 but also has been ok at Renaissance and in his last start was T-2nd at the Volvo Car Scandinavian.  One really good pick is Rickie Fowler at $6,900.  Yes, he has played poorly the last couple of years, but he has done well in this event and was impressed in his first-round today at J.P McManus shooting a first-round 67.  Also, like Padraig Harrington at $6,700.  He has played ok at Renaissance, and knows the course well since he was a player consultant