Blog3M Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We finally ended the majors season kind of the way it started, with another 20s stud looking impressive with his win. It’s the first time in major history that all four majors were won by players in their 20s. But one of the most exciting majors this year was Cameron Smith, who had one of those epic final rounds, shooting 64 to win by a shot over Cameron Young. The bogey-free final round will go down in the annals of major championship golf as one of the best, at least in the top 10. Smith made eight birdies, including a stretch from the 10th to the 15th hole with five birdies. But what will be remembered the most was his finish.

On the 10th tee, Smith was four back of Rory McIlroy, and his odds of winning were down to 6%. By the end of his five birdie romp, he was a shot up on McIlroy, who played his first nine in one under and then birdied the 10th. The clutch shot of the day came at, of course, the 17th, the hardest hole in golf. He hit his second shot to the side of the road bunker and was faced with a difficult decision, either lob a wedge over the road bunker with the potential of a not perfect shot either going into the bunker or over the green onto the road. After careful consideration, knowing how confident he was with his putter and the thought that anything inside 15 feet was a “sure” thing. So Smith took out the putter from way off the green, putted to the side of the bunker to within 10 feet, and made the putt to save par. After that, he hit a big drive on 18 just short of the valley of sin and got it up and day for his eighth birdie of the day. His closing back-nine score of 30 is the lowest by any British Open champion in history and two off the Open record of 28 shot by Denis Durian in the second round back at Birkdale in 1983. His score of 20 under par tied the lowest in the history of men’s major championships (Henrik Stenson, Royal Troon, 2016), and was a mark reached on three previous occasions but never before at St. Andrews.

The win gives him three victories in 2022, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Players Championship. As of right now, that puts him in a tie with Masters champion Scottie Scheffler for PGA Tour Player of the Year honors. Even though Scheffler has four wins, have to think that Smith’s Players title gives him a slight lead. So the three tournament FedEx Cup Playoffs will determine that winner.

With the win, Smith is just the seventh player in men’s major history to win with a final round of 64 or lower. He became the third Australian player to win at St. Andrews, joining Peter Thomson (1955) and Kel Nagle (1960), and the first Aussie to win any Open since Greg Norman in 1993. This being the 150th playing of the Open, it’s only striking the fact that an Australian won the 150th playing, along with Nagle winning the 100th version.

But while Smith’s win is so incredible, Rory McIlroy’s loss was just as incredible. I personally had a lot of money on Smith, but I also had a fair amount on Rory also. It’s the first time in a long time that I rooted for someone, even though I knew I would make a much bigger payday with Smith. I followed Rory for his first couple of holes and could see he was the sentimental favorite. By the time I got back to the press room when Rory was making the turn, the same in that building, Rory was the big favorite. In a way, it reminded me of 2009 when Tom Watson had the lead, only to bogey the last hole and then lose a playoff to Stewart Cink.

McIlroy put on a great show on Sunday, he hit all 18 of St. Andrews’ gigantic greens, but had 36 putts, too, which was seven more than Smith. I saw in The Athletic someone wrote that it was the first time since stats have been kept at the majors that the 54-hole leader or co-leader would hit all 18 greens and not win the major.

With the Masters set to begin in 262 days, the big question will be what golf will be by then. With LIV Golf making an effort to become relevant, there is a chance that Smith will join that circuit. Rumors ran rampant at the British Open that Smith, along with Henrik Stenson and Hideki Matsuyama, are considering big payoffs to join that tour, and you have to wonder if someone offers to pay you $100 million to play 10 events a year, you would seriously consider such an offer.

So what is this week really about?

So after the excitement of the British Open, things will get pretty thin this week at the 3M Open. Have to think that the marquee names will take the next three weeks off, avoiding the 3M, the Rocket Mortgage, and the Wyndham, and play in the three-week FedEx Cup Playoffs, which start this year in Memphis. Unfortunately, the field is so weak this week, as the folks in Minnesota love their new event, but because of the schedule wedged between the British and the playoffs, they have no marquee names to embrace.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Course information:

• TPC Twin Cities
• Blaine, Minnesota.
• 7,431 yards     Par 35-36–71

2019 was the first year of the 3M Open and the first time TPC Twin Cities was used in a PGA Tour tournament. It had been a popular venue for a Champions Tour event and remained successful when switched to the PGA Tour in 2019. The one thing about the course every time it’s played, it seems to get tougher. In the first year 2019, the course played to a 69.45 scoring average, which is a shot and a half below its par. Ranking-wise, it’s T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier. What happened in the events first year was a very easy course that catered to long hitters. But the course was a bit different last year. Rough was up, and the PGA Tour tucked away the pins. So more traditional players that didn’t hit is long did well. The scoring average was up 69.95, and the rank of the course also went up as the course ranked 23rd hardest. Last year saw a combination of rough, tucking of pins, and a lot of wind blowing over 10 mph with gusts of up to 20 mph on Thursday as the course played to a 70.44 average, the 24th hardest for the year.

Last year the weather made things harder, but because of the summertime, the course is dry and fast, along with the low humidity offered in Minnesota this time of year, and temperatures in the 90s could make the course easier. Despite the course having five holes with sharp doglegs meaning players have to be careful off the tee, the course is still considered a bombers haven. The greens are a bit small at 6,500 square feet but very manageable. On the whole good putters will love TPC Twin Cities. Again look for players to find the greens in regulation and have deceit putts at birdies. Last year, 1,687 birdies were made, but I could see that go seriously up and match the 1,976 made in 2019. I can also see the 52 eagles made in 2019 matched, good for a course with only three par 5s.

Off the tee, the course will rely on a combination of lakes (10 in total will be in play off the tee), bunkers (14 in total), and rough. Five of the holes have sharp doglegs, which players will have to lay back so that they don’t run out of the fairway, but still, long hitters will have their way with the course since the bluegrass fescue won’t be a problem for players. There are a total of 72 bunkers on the course, with 39 guarding the greens.

The big question that needs to be answered will be if the fans come back and are happy again to have a PGA Tour event. In the 12 years that the seniors played the course, the average winning score was 19.5 under par, which was in tournaments with only 54 holes. In 2010 David Frost won with scores of 64-66-61 for a 25 under par total. Now the Arnold Palmer design course played at 7,114 yards and a par 72 for the seniors, but tournament officials made some serious changes in 2018. Not only has 354 yards been added to the course so that it will play at 7,431 yards, but par has been reduced to 71. Still, this won’t present any problems for the longest hitters in the world. Another thing that tournament officials are doing on holes 7, 10, and 16 is moving the tees so that the holes could play between 280 and 315 yards, making them drivable, but the holes are well guarded by water so they won’t be automatic birdie holes. The three par 5s will play over 590 yards, so they will not be automatic birdie holes.

Despite the poor field, it’s still a PGA Tour event with great players, so the home folks will be happy with it like those at other popular events like the John Deere Classic.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Twin Cities.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Twin Cities, data from last year’s 3M Open, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.

Last year was the third year of the 3M Open. It was a popular venue Champions Tour event before making the switch for 2019. The switch proved very successful as the community got in the back of the tournament and made it a mainstay for the Minnesota area. Now the heart and soul of the event is the course, TPC Twin Cities. It’s a course most players like because they can produce a low score on it. Last year the scoring average was 70.44, half a shot under par, and it was the 24th hardest course on Tour. Winner Cameron Champ scored 15 under par and had 21 birdies for the week. The previous year it played to a 69.95 scoring average, which is a shot below its par. Ranking-wise, it was 23d hardest on the PGA Tour.

With the course playing this easy, it’s not surprising that the course had more birdies made on it (1,976) than any other course in 2019. In 2020 the course had 1,769 birdies, placing it 36th out of 41 courses, and last year 1,687 birdies were made, placing it 42nd out of 51 courses. So it’s important to note that making birdies could be one of the essential parts of playing well at TPC Twin Cities.

So the stats make the point that this is a bombers course. The same with eagles, last year 38 were made, and that is good for a course that only has three par 5s.

In our four categories, we have picked four needed to win. First, we will use strokes gained/tee to green, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens. Last year the average drive was 300.3 yards for measured drives and ranked 37th, meaning that only 14 other courses on the tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 28th with 62.66% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner Cameron Champ, he ranked eighth in driving distance and T-49th in accuracy, so he ranked 27th in strokes gained/tee to green. In 2020, winner Michael Thompson ranked 46th in driving distance and T-22nd in accuracy, so he ranked 17th in strokes gained/tee to green. As for 2019 winner Matthew Wolff, he ranked 36th in driving distance and T-31st in accuracy, so he ranked first in strokes gained/tee to green.

Our second category is greens in regulation. This is a type of course where greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation, so TPC Twin Cities was ranked 38th on tour with 70.38% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner last year, Champ, hit 54 of 72 greens for a 75.00%, ranking T-22nd. In 2020 Thompson hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, ranking T-third. In 2019, winner Wolff hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, which ranked T-6th. Runner-up Louis Oosthuizen hit the most greens, 62 of the 72.

Our third category is strokes gained/putting which is an integral part of the game. Last year the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.775 as the course ranked 22nd. It averaged 29.49 putts per round, ranking it 14th, and in the important inside 10 feet, it ranked 37th. As for last year’s winner Champ, he took 109 putts which ranked first, and in strokes gained/putting, was ranked first. In 2020 Thompson took 115 putts, ranking first, and strokes gained/putting was first. In putts inside 10 feet, he ranked third, making 61 of 64 putts. In 2019 Wolff took 115 putts which ranked T-25th, and in strokes gained/putting, he was 39th. In the critical putts made inside 10 feet, Wolff made 65 of 71 and ranked T-27th.

The last category is par breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,687 birdies were made on the course, with only nine other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. Last year’s winner Cameron Champ made 21 birdies, ranked T-2nd, and didn’t make an eagle. So Champ was T-2nd in par breakers. In 2020 Michael Thompson made 22 birdies, ranked T-7th, and didn’t make an eagle. So Thompson was T-12th in par breakers. In 2019 TPC Twin Cities had a total of 52 eagles, which ranked 43rd and 39th in par breakers. Now Wolff made 26 birdies and one eagle as he was first in par breakers.
Wolff had an epic battle with Bryson DeChambeau, and his eagle on the 72nd hole was the reason he won the tournament by a shot. Thompson played great and cruised to a two-shot victory, the same with Champ last year.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee, and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 105 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2021.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all player stats for the 3M.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $10,500
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,300
• Sungjae Im – $10,000
• Sahith Theegala – $9,800
• Adam Hadwin – 9,600
• Maverick McNealy – $9,300
• Davis Riley – $9,000
• Cam Davis – $8,900
• Cameron Tringale – $8,800

This week will be hard to play Draftkings. It’s always hard in events that don’t have many marquee names because then you have a lot of players that were priced as middle tier are now the favorites. So don’t take one of the high price players even though the feeling is good about Finau, Matsuyama, Im, Theegala, and Hadwin. One of the great things about this week, players don’t cost a lot if you avoid these five players at the top, you can pick a lot more of those in the $8,000 to $9,300 range. Now Tony Finau at $10,500 is the top pick, have no idea why. Yes, he was T-3rd in 2020 but hasn’t played that great on the course. His game has improved since the Masters, but I saw him play a couple of holes at St. Andrews and wasn’t very impressed. Just think you can do better, he is a big no for me. The same with Hideki Matsuyama at $10,300, in one TPC Twin Cities visit in 2019 was T-7th. Still has a lot on his shoulders with the decision he is making on whether to stay the course with the PGA Tour or take a lot of money to play in LIV Golf. So best to say no to him. Don’t understand the high valuation of Sungjae Im at $10,000. He played once in 2019 and finished T-15th, has not played well of late and is a big no for me. Sahith Theegala at $9,800 is another no for me, he played the event once and missed the cut. He has played deceit of late with his T-2nd at the Travelers and T-34th at St. Andrews, but that will not persuade me to pick him this week. Now Adam Hadwin at 9,600 is my first maybe, he has played well at TPC Twin Cities, finishing T-6th last year and 4th in 2019. He was T-7th at the U.S. Open but missed the cut at the John Deere. For me, he is a toss-up pick. I kind of like Maverick McNealy at $9,300. He was T-16th in his only Twin Cities start last year and, of late, has played well, was T-9th last week at the Barracuda. The player I really like is Davis Riley at $9,000. Has never played the course, but his style of play sets up great for it, plus has been on a tear since missing the cut at Heritage. Cam Davis at $8,900 is a yes for me, his record isn’t great at TPC Twin Cities, in three starts best finish was T-12th in 2021. But was 6th last week at the Barracuda and T-8th at the Deere, so yes, he is a person to think about. Last is Cameron Tringale at $8,800, he will be the favorite for his years of good play, in 2020 was T-3rd, and like that, he has played ok on the PGA Tour in 2022.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,700 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Chez Reavie at $8,700 will get a lot of support. He was T-11 in his only start last year and won last week in the Barracuda. I am glad to see him in the winner’s circle, and Twin Cities is a course in his wheelhouse. The same with Adam Long at $8,600, in three Twin Cities starts, was 2nd in 2020 and has played consistently all year. Brendan Steele at $8,300, is also a player to watch, he is long off the tee and has only played once at Twin Cities in 2019 and finished T-53rd. But has a lot of good finishes in 2022, and you know he will make the cut and gain some points. Same with Martin Laird at $8,200, who was T-42 in 2019 but has been consistent this year and was 3rd last week at the Barracuda. Then we have Nick Hardy at $8,000. Has never played this event, but his game sets up perfectly for Twin Cities. A top of that has played well since May was T-13th at the Barracuda and T-8th at the Travelers. Ryan Palmer at $7,900 is another “rookie” at Twin Cities, he has been up and down in 2022, last start was T-16h at Scottish Open. The defending champion Cameron Champ is at $7,800 and a good bet. Yes, he has missed his last five cuts, but the course is perfect for him, and he tends to miss a lot of cuts, so he is a year for this week. Rickie Fowler is at $7,700 and despite finishing T34th in his only Twin Cities start, I think he is very close to contending. Adam Svensson at $7,600 is a thought, was T-15 in his only Twin Cities starting in 2019 and has played good of late, including a sixth in his last start at the Barbasol.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the 3M

Slim pickings, basically we are looking at someone that can make the cut. Some that fit the bill are C.T. Pan at $7,500, Lucas Glover at $7,400, 2020 champion Michael Thompson at $7,300, and Nick Taylor at $7,200. I really like Joohyung Kim at $7,300, he just secured temporary membership to the PGA Tour, and looking for his card, he will be a great pick. Watch for Bo Hoag at $6,800, he was T-16th last year and T-12th in 2020. Also, like Brice Garnett at $6,900 because of his solid record of making three of three cuts at Twin Cities. Also, Brian Stuard is at $6,600 he was T-6th last year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the 3M Open:

The key stat for the winner:

In 2020 we told you that looking at the seniors that played well at TPC Twin Cities during the 3M Championship, the one stat that jumped out was how those that won and finished in the top-five were high up in hitting greens. In 2021 not only did winner Matthew Wolff hit it long, but he hit 60 of the 72 greens, ranking T-6th. The same with last year’s winner Cameron Champ, who was eighth in driving and 22nd in greens hit.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Good putters will do very well with the greens not having many undulations. In 2019 runner-up Bryson DeChambeau had only 107 putts, the least of anyone in the field. Last year Cameron Champ won thanks to his putter, he took just 109 putts and was co-leader. So look for those at the top of the strokes gained/putting to play well. Here are those in the top-10 of that list that is playing this week: Brian Gay (first), Brendon Todd (third), and Beau Hossler (sixth).

Another important item that we saw in 2020 and within the seniors playing TPC Twin Cities was making lots of birdies and eagles. Look for those players that make a lot of birdies and eagles.

As we have stressed, this event won’t see many marquee names on top of the leaderboard. For most of them, the players you least expect to be at the top, just like Matthew Wolff did in 2019, Michael Thompson did in 2020, and Cameron Champ last year.

The weather should be good this week, with temperatures going into the low 90s with just a little bit of humidity. Possibility of Thunderstorms in the afternoon, Other than that, it’s a good week on tap.