BlogRocket Mortgage Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So we are in the middle of a three-event swing between the British Open and the FedExCup playoffs.  Unfortunately, these are great events played on good courses with terrible fields.  But the marquee players need some time off, which is a good time for the rest.  Still, we have some good players on the field, better than last week.  Patrick Cantlay is playing, this course is perfect for him, so I can see why he is playing.  The same with Will Zalatoris, his game is perfect for Detroit Golf Club, and the only question is if his putter could be half deceit so he can finally get that first win.  Tony Finau broke out for his first win in a year, we have seen Finau knocking on the door since he played well since Mexico.  Will Tony win again in the next five weeks?  Possibly, he is playing well enough.  Talking about a player that could win in the next five weeks, Max Homa is in the field, and Detroit Golf Club is a lot like Riviera so we could see him contending.  Everyone should watch out for Kevin Kisner, he too is good for this course and could win.  Looking for a long shot, Joohyung Kim is your man.  He is the best player out of Asia since Hideki Matsuyama, and he was given a special exemption to be a temporary member of the PGA Tour for the next two weeks.  He has 327 FedExCup points, which would place him 130th on the FedExCup list.  So in the next two weeks, Kim will be looking for a top-ten finish or two top-30 finishes.  I bet he gets his card for 2023, so for those wondering, it may be worthwhile to put a few dollars on him this week.

The last time this event was played was in between the U.S. Open and the British Open.  It has moved back about a month, and now the importance of this event is for those looking to get inside the top 125 of the FedExCup.  In the scheme of golf, this week won’t be that important, but for those struggling to keep their cards, it’s very important.  So in looking for those that could play well, look for those on the cusp of the top 125, and you can find your winner.  A couple to watch are Chesson Hadley who is 130th, Kramer Hickok who is 131st, Rickie Fowler who is 132nd, Austin Smotherman who is 134th, Nick Hardy who is 138th, and Doc Redman at 145th.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic

This was a tournament that had been in the making for over a decade.  Between 1958 and 2009, the Detroit area had the Buick Open, which was played at Warwick Hills Golf and Country Club in Grand Blanc, about an hour from Detroit.  It was a great event that was well supported but was in the wrong place at the wrong time with sponsors that had major problems.  With the auto industry caving in with the global financial meltdown in 2008, the area was dying quickly.  Not only was the auto industry in need of a federal bailout, but those associated with the auto industry was also struggling, and the community was struggling with tens of thousands losing their job.  So corporate dollars disappeared as Michigan was trying to just survive.

So the Buick Open died on the vine, the last one was played in 2009 with Tiger Woods winning, but a couple of folks associated with Detroit Golf Club saw the dream of having the PGA Tour return and play at Detroit Golf Club.

Those folks worked hard to find a sponsor and get the PGA Tour interested in returning to Michigan.  While this was happening, Detroit Golf Club went through several renovation projects to modernize the course and make it worthy of hosting the best professionals in golf.  While they were working on the club, the PGA Tour checked in and liked what they were doing, and around 2016, said that the course and the area were worthy of a PGA Tour event.  But just getting the PGA Tour to approve it didn’t mean they would get a tournament.  They needed two things first, a heavy-duty sponsor willing to commit over $12 million to the cause, and they had to find an open date, which was just as hard to obtain as a sponsor.  The folks from Detroit weren’t the only ones looking for a date, there were groups from Minnesota, St. Louis, Denver, and the Seattle area also looking for the same thing.

What happened was a stroke of luck for the folks at Detroit Golf club.  Quicken Loans was sponsoring Tiger Woods Washington D.C. event, but since Quicken Loans was based in Detroit, they were looking to move to a tournament into their home base.  So the PGA Tour did some match-making and put the folks of Detroit Golf Club with the folks of Quicken Loans, and the decision was made two years ago to utilize the date of the Washington D.C. tournament to Detroit.  When the Woods folks couldn’t secure a sponsor, the event was dead in D.C. and basically moved to Detroit.

Now when people think about Detroit, they don’t associate having a golf tournament in a city that has been ravished with problems.  But the area is improving, more non-auto industry money is moving in, and Detroit is improving.  And they do love their golf, and last year they sold out all days of the Rocket Mortgage and ran a very successful tournament.

To show how solid this event is, in 2020, when the tour was shut down for two months, this event was in danger of not happening.  But in May of 2020, as the tour could get started again in June, the Tour got together with the folks that ran the Rocket Mortgage.  Tournament officials didn’t want to lose the momentum that was built in the first year, but at the same time realized the problems of having a tournament with no fans, which meant less for their charity.  The PGA Tour gave them the choice of holding the tournament or taking the year off, and they decided to hold the event.  At the same time, they decided to change the charity structure to one in which Detroit residents gained access to technology, internet, and digital-literacy resources, something that the city needed.  With the new plan, Rocket Mortgage kicked in more money, and they had a worthwhile project.

So even with the pandemic and the event not having any paying customers, the second Rocket Mortgage Classic was able to raise more than $2.7 million for local charities.  So we can see this event will be around for a while.

Course information:

• Detroit Golf Club
• Detroit, Mich.
• 7,370 yards     Par 36-36–72

The Detroit Golf Club started in 1899 when a six-hole course was built.  In 1914 the club bought a large parcel of land and hired Donald Ross, at the time an up-and-coming golf architect, to build two 18-hole courses.  In 1916 the new courses were open for play.  At the time of opening, the club hired Albert Kahn to build them a clubhouse, and he built one of the grandness buildings that opened in 1918 and today is a landmark building.

In the beginning, it was the place to play, Henry Ford became a member in 1915, his son joined, and other dignitaries of Detroit joined.  Ross’ brother Alec who won the 1907 U.S. Open, was the club’s first head professional and was at the club between 1918 and 1945.  He was replaced by Horton Smith, who won the first two Masters and was the club’s pro until his death in 1963.  He was replaced by another PGA tour player, Detroit native Walter Burkemo.  After him, George Bayer was the pro, in the 50s and 60s, Bayer won on the PGA Tour and was considered the longest hitter of the day.

When it was determined in 2006 that the Detroit Golf Club wanted a PGA Tour event, they accessed the course and realized the course needed to be updated to create a challenge for the best players in the world.  So the club approved changes to be made in four stages in 2006, 2010, 2012, and 2014.  They decided not to change the character of the two Donald Ross courses but hired Bruce Hepner to update the course.  At the end of the day, very little was needed on the North Course, which will use 17 of its holes for the Rocket Mortgage.  The 3rd hole will use the 1st hole of the South course so technically, it will be a composite course.

The course is famous for its tree-lined fairways, but the greens are what get most of the attention.  They average 5,500 square feet, so they are small by PGA Tour standards and have 41 of the courses and 87 bunkers protecting them.  What makes the greens hard is the undulations, along with the fact that many of the greens are tiered with different levels making it important the put your shot to the green in the right position.  Another problem for the players, a lot of the greens are raised, so if a green is missed, it means a pitch is in order instead of chipping the ball, again another skill set that isn’t practiced very much.  The course is tree-lined but, for the most part, has generous fairways to hit.  The Detroit area has had an abundance of rain in the last month, so not only is the course very lush, but the rough has had time to grow and become very lush, making it hard to get some shots to the green.  The course did go through an upgrade in the last decade to make it harder for PGA Tour caliber players, but with straight holes, most of the long-hitters have a chance to overpower the course.

The course will be in its fourth year, and players now know a lot about it.  Tournament officials in 2020 decided to make the course tougher by letting the rough grow. Hopefully, this will make it tougher this year.  Still, in the minds of half the field, the course will be fresh and new, this will continue to help those players whose game may not be sharp coming into the tournament

Many wondered after the first year if the course would be perfect for the long hitters, probably since its length at 7,340 is a bit short, but with straight fairways that had limited rough, the only true hazard was the 30 fairway bunkers, and in most cases, they are shallow and will be easy to get out of.  Still just like last year when Cam Davis surprised the golf world by winning and in 2020 when Bryson DeChambeau overpowered the course.  But there is always that mystic in which the winner could be the player you least expect who is on the cusp of finding their game-winning, as Nate Lashley did in 2019.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Detroit Golf Club.

This is based on the most vital stats from Detroit Golf Club, data from last year’s Rocket Mortgage, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
In all three years that the Rocket Mortgage Classic has been played at Detroit Golf Club, the PGA Tour has been very careful in setting up the tournament. In the three years the course played overly fair, in 2019, it had a scoring average of 70.11 and was the 42nd hardest (out of 49th) course on tour. In 2020 Detroit Golf Club played just about identically to a 70.05 average and was the 38th hardest (out of 41 courses). Last year it played a bit tougher, at 70.55, as it ranked 40th toughest course out of the 51 ranked courses. So in some respects, the tour has allowed the scoring, but it’s not like they are ripping up the course, yes in the three years, the lowest score is 63, shot twice in 2019 and in 2021. Last year 63 was shot by Davis Thompson, who was the first-round leader but went on to finish T-58th. In 1,367 total rounds, 65 or less has only been shot 39 times, so the course has some bite. The rough has inched up higher each year, again for the third year in a row, the weather was perfect with high temperatures and low wind. Last year the course played harder as the fans and grandstands were back, making it harder. This year will be harder due to weather conditions. Each day will be in the mid-8-s, with winds in the 11 to 15 mph range. But things will be bone dry, greens will be hard to hold, and fairways will have a lot of run as drives could seem to be perfect but bounce into the rough. So the conditions could make the course tougher.

The big question will there be another birdie fest? In 2019 1,895 birdies were made on the course, in 2020, 1,887 birdies were made. Last year 1,740 birdies were made, a bit less, but still, only seven courses on the tour had more birdies, the most were 2,007 at TPC Craig Ranch.

In looking at our four categories, we have to think very differently because the nature of Detroit Golf Club is an old, tested venue. First, we will use Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee and accuracy. Last year the average drive was 287.2 yards and ranked 15th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 41st with 68.43% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner Cam Davis, he ranked 28th in driving distance and T-29th in accuracy and was 34th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. The year before, Bryson DeChambeau ranked 1st in driving distance and T-58th in accuracy and was 1st in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. In 2019 Nate Lashley ranked 44th in Driving Distance and T-11th in Accuracy, so he ranked T-29th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee.
Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a Donald Ross course, so we know that Ross greens are always hard to hit. On top of that, the greens are also small at 5,100 and are raised, so they are tough to get on. So for last year, Detroit Golf Club was ranked 45th in Greens hit with a 72.29% average. As for the 2021 champion Cam Davis, he hit 55 of 72 greens and ranked T-24th. The previous year the course ranked 35th, and the winner, DeChambeau hit 56 of the 72 greens and ranked T-13th. In 2019 the course was 40th on tour, with 72.52% of the greens hit. The winner Lashley hit 59 of 72 for 84.94%, which ranked T-4th. Ted Potter, Jr. hit the most greens, 61 of the 72, and finished T-5th.
Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting which is an important part of the game. Last year, the putting average at Detroit Golf Club was 1.639, ranking T-12th. It averaged 29.50 putts per round, ranking 13th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 21st. Our 2021 champion Cam Davis took 112 putts which ranked T-12th, and in strokes Gained Putting was 22nd. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, Davis made 65 of 73 putts and ranked 38th. In 2020 the putting average at Detroit Golf Club was 1.631, which ranked 13th. It averaged 29.36 putts per round, ranking 13th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 7th. DeChambeau took 111 puts which ranked T-7th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 1st. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, DeChambeau made 63 of 68 and ranked T-4th. In 2019 the course was 1.629 in putting, which ranked T-17th. It averaged 29.33 putts per round, ranking it T-15th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 17th. Lashley took 106 putts, ranked 2nd, and Strokes Gained Putting was also 2nd. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, Lashley made 64 of 68 and ranked 4th.
The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,740 birdies were made last year, in 2020, 1,887 were made, and in 2019, 1,895 birdies were made on the course. It had a total of 23 eagles last year, 42 eagles the year before, and 40 eagles in 2019. So for last year, the course ranked 25th in Par Breakers, 35th the year before that, and 38th in 2019. Last year Davis had 23 birdies, T-2nd, and was T-1st in Par Breakers. In 2020 DeChambeau had 27 birdies, the 2nd best of the field, and was 2nd in Par Breakers. In 2019 Lashley made the most birdies of anyone in the field, 28, so his Par Breakers rank is 1st. In a way, we can see that Par Breakers was important in the winner’s stats at the Rocket Mortgage.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Combination of distance off the tee and accuracy.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 132 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2022.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

He is the link to get all the stats for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Patrick Cantlay – $10,700
• Tony Finau – $10,600
• Will Zalatoris – $10,400
• Cameron Young – $10,100
• Max Homa – $9,900
• Cam Davis – $9,700
• Adam Scott – $9,300
• Keegan Bradley – $9,200
• Kevin Kisner – $9,100

Patrick Cantlay at $10,700 is a fair price, even though he has never played an event at Detroit Golf Club.  If you look at the history of Cantlay, he is great on these old fashion golf courses.  Last year he won at East Lake, Caves Valley, Muirfield Village, and Sherwood Country Club courses like Detroit Golf Club.  There is a reason he is playing here, and it’s because he knows the course is perfect for him.  So yes, the price is high but worth it.  Tony Finau at $10,600 is a no for me, sorry but he is coming off a great win last week in Minnesota, and I just don’t think he will be on his game.  So pass on him.  Will Zalatoris at $10,400 is worth the price, yes he played last year and finished 77th.  But feel his tee-to-green game is good, stat wise his 2022 figures make him very desirable, so yes, a good bet.  Cameron Young at $10,100 is also worth the price, he showed us a lot at St. Andrews, and despite him being weak in hitting greens, his putter will be good.  He is playing this event for the first time.  Max Homa at $9,900 is a toss-up for me, he has played the course twice, finishing T-42nd in 2019 and T-25th last year.  He missed the cut at the British Open, but don’t read anything into it.  His stats are good, but yes a bit weak in hitting greens.  So even though I am passing on him, doesn’t mean he is a bad choice.  Cam Davis at $9,700 is a very good pick, yes his game is sharp, he has been in the top-16 in his last three starts, including a 6th place finish at the Barracuda.  I see him in contention again this week.  Adam Scott at $9,300 is a no for me.  Has never played here, and even though his game is built for Detroit Golf Club, I don’t see him contending much lately.  Yes, he was T-14th at the U.S. Open and T-15th at the British Open, but he hasn’t really contended in a long time.  Keegan Bradley at $9,200 is another toss-up for me, he was T-14th last year and played ok this summer, again I can go either way on Bradley.  The person I really like is Kevin Kisner at $9,100, he was T-8th last year and 3rd in 2020.  The course sets up perfectly for him, and he showed it finishing T-6th last month at the Travelers.  Yes, he is my top pick this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Maverick McNealy at $8,800 is a bit high, but I like him.  In two starts in this event were T-21st last year and T-8th in 2020.  He has the tools and length to do well, and has played well over the summer.  I like Davis Riley at $8,600 even though he let me down last week by missing the cut.  Has never played in this event, but still think he will play well.  Cameron Tringale at $8,500 is a good choice, he has played this event three times and was T-5th in 2019, T-30th in 2020, and T-14th last year.  He missed the cut last week in the 3M but don’t worry about him, he is solid.  Still high on Adam Hadwin at $8,400 he missed the cut last year but was T-4th in 2021, so I think he will be a good pick.  Kevin Streelman, at $7,700, is worth a look at, was T-35th in 2019 but like that in his last start, was 2nd at the Barbasol.  As I said in my opening, the player I am going to watch this week is JooHyung Kim.  He is $7,600 and despite not playing in this event in the past, think he will have a great week.  Jason Day at $7,500 is worth a look at.  Was T-14th last year in this event, he has played solidly since the Masters, and I can see him making the cut and getting you a lot of points.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Rocket Mortgage

I like Matt Kuchar at $7,500, he has never played in this event but plays well on courses like this.  The year has been solid since missing the cut at the Players has been flawless with a lot of top-25 finishes.  Also, like C.T. Pan at $7,300, he missed the cut in his only Rocket Mortgage start in 2020 but has been solid over the spring and summer, so he will give you 72 holes for a great price.  Rickie Fowler at $7,300 is another good buy, he has played this event three times his best was T-12th in 2020, so he likes the course.  He hasn’t been great this year, but I think he will make the cut.  The person I am all over is Nick Hardy at $7,300.  Never played the course but still, he is a good player, has some great stats to show him playing well, and he will make you a lot of points at a cheap price.  Another player to think about is Greyson Sigg at $7,100, he has never played at Detroit Golf Club but has had a solid summer, and should be able to go 72 holes.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Rocket Mortgage:

The key stat for the winner:

• Like every other Donald Ross course, a shotmaker will rule.  Those that hit it long and straight will have an advantage, but for a player to win, he has to have pinpoint accuracy in shots to the green to put the ball in the right place for that right putt.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• To find that hidden gem, look at those who have played well in the three events since the break and did well last year at the Rocket Mortgage.
• The player with the least amount of putts in the 3 to 12-foot range will win.  So look for those who are the best on tour making putts inside ten feet.
• In most cases, it will be hard to hit all of the greens, so scrambling will come into play and could save those that aren’t that precise with shots to the green.
• Don’t automatically pick one of the marquee names like Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, or Adam Scott, look for those players whose games have improved the last couple of weeks, just like Sahith Theegala or Kevin Kisner
• The four par 5s are between 552 and 635 yards in length, but only one of the greens is guarded by a lake (14), and since all of them are straightaway, I can see players doing well on them.  Last year’s winner Cam Davis was 12 under on them as 4 players were in double digits as the field played the par 5s 535 under par.  In 2020 Bryson DeChambeau won and was 11 under on the par 5s as 8 players were in double digits. In 2019 Nate Lashley was 10 under on them as 15 players were in double digits as the field was 4.61 on the par 5s, which ranked 26th on tour
• The weather is going to be good this week