BlogWyndham Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

For some, the Wyndham could be the last rodeo this year.

Yes, it’s come to this, the Wyndham Championship is the last regular event before the FedExCup Playoffs, which start next week. In past years it spelled do or die, if you weren’t in the top 125 after this week, you would be banished to the Korn Ferry Finals to play for your PGA Tour life for the following year. For those that left the Wyndham outside the top 200, you were out of luck, not a chance of redemption other than waiting for December and trying to earn a spot on the Korn Ferry Tour in their qualifying tournament.

But things are about to change. Next year this event will be the last regular event before the FedExCup Playoffs, but the big change is that only 70 players will go onto the playoffs. So this event next year will have more players in the 65 and up FedExcup points list. It’s still unclear what will happen to the top 125, looks like that list will continue into the fall as the tour next year will dump the starting the year in September. So things will change next year, but for now, we are under the old system.

The most important thing…

… is to maintain your PGA Tour card, either winning events or being in the top 125 of the FedEx Cup points list. If you fall out of the top 125, you’re in danger of not playing in 2023.

Showing the importance of that, of the 156 in the field so far, 26 of the players between 120 and 150 on the FedEx point list are playing at the Wyndham (Those not playing are #121 Pat Perez, LIV – #135 Paul Casey, LIV – 142 Francesco Molinari, exempt next year and #143 Erik Van Rooyen, injured). The man on the bubble in the 125th spot is Webb Simpson, and he doesn’t have to worry because he has other status, so the man on the bubble is 126 Callum Tarren. These are the people that this week is about, guys like Lucas Glover, who is 124th and looking to get into the playoffs, something he has done the last three years. Glover’s future is not in danger. He will play on the PGA Tour next year no matter what happens. Still, it’s a prideful achievement to say you have played in so many FedExCup Playoffs.

One claim that will be made next week at the first playoff spot in Memphis, only one player will tee it up and play in every FedExCup Playoffs, and that is Matt Kuchar. He is the only player that has been in the top-125 for every FedExCup playoff.

For those on the bubble, this week is about what happens to them next year, they are playing for their existence. If they don’t happen to make it into the top 125, they will find themselves without a PGA Tour card and being forced into a three-week living hell at the Korn Ferry Finals starting in two weeks. The Korn Ferry Finals is the modern equivalent of the old PGA Tour qualifying tournament. Players who finish 126-200 on the PGA Tour’s FedExCup points list after the Wyndham will have to play in three Korn Ferry finals and contend for 25 spots to regain their PGA Tour cards for 2023. Making it even harder, there will be about 75 players off the Korn Ferry Tour looking to earn one of those 25 spots on the PGA Tour for 2023.

Here is a look at some of those on the bubble with their current rankings. #120 Patton Kizzire, #123 Tyler Duncan, #126 Callum Tarren, #128 Kevin Tway, #129 Nick Taylor, #130 Chesson Hadley, #131 Kramer Hickok, and #132 Rickie Fowler..

For those that don’t make it into the top 125, there is one safety net they have to maintain, being 126 to 150 on the FedEx Point list. They will keep limited playing privileges for 2022, and just in case they don’t make the Korn Ferry finals top-25, they aren’t out of luck like those that finish below 151.

One thing that is different this year is the 20 to 25 players in the top 140 of the FedExCup list that is now playing in the LIV Golf series. With that happening, it frees up 20 to 25 slots for more players, so in a normal year, a player that was 140th was out of luck, now he could be inside the top-125 list.

In gambling terms, this brings in a different variable. In figuring the correct equation, you have to consider some of the players’ nerves, what this week means for a player, and the pressure it places on them. Some examples of this, 2020, Jim Herman came to the Wyndham 192nd on the points list. He was going to maintain his PGA Tour card in 2021 due to his win at the Barbasol Championship. He wanted to play in the FedEx Cup playoffs because for each, there is bonus money for those in the top 120. Those in last place earn $101,000, which is a nice bonus. So Herman was a great pick despite being 192nd on the points list because playing the Wyndham was about money, not his future. Herman won the Wyndham, climbed up to 54, and played in the first two playoff events, finishing 64th and earning a $150,000 bonus. So, could lightning strike twice? You never know Herman comes into this week’s 209th in the point standings, so he has to win to make it back to the playoffs. A couple of others to watch, Cameron Champ is 149th on the list, and after his T-16th at the 3M and T-20th finish at the Rocket Mortgage, could be primed to win this week. Same with Stephan Jaeger, who was also 5th at the Rocket Mortgage and is 133rd on the FedEx Cup list. One other to watch this week is Charley Hoffman, he finished T-10th at Rocket Mortgage and is 159th in the FedEx Cup.

Joohyung Kim

We have talked about this player, I really think he is a star of the future. As we discussed last week, Kim got a special temporary membership after the British Open and had three weeks to get into the top 125. Kim shot a final round 63 at the Rocket Mortgage and finished 7th. With that finish, he has earned a PGA Tour card for 2023 as he now has 417 FedExCup points, which puts him between 96th and 97th on the eligibility list. As a non-member, he needs to equal or better the points earned by the 125th-ranked player, with the Wyndham Championship this week being the final tournament of the Regular Season. That will happen, so the good news is he will be a PGA Tour member in September when the first event in Napa happens.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Tournament information:

Created in 1938, the 2021 edition of the Wyndham Championship will be the 83rd tournament. Initially known as the Greater Greensboro Open, the tournament has blossomed from its small roots. The event was the vision of the Greensboro Jaycee’s Chapter, which was but a year old when the idea was conceived. Many were in favor of the creation of a golf tournament; however, no one took steps to create an event until, at a meeting in the summer of 1937, Joseph Bryan put up capital to back the event. The PGA Tour placed the tournament on the 1938 schedule.

If Joseph Bryan is credited with being the backer, then Sam Snead is the owner of the event. His eight victories at Greensboro, including the inaugural event, were a record for most wins by a player at one tournament until Tiger tied him in several events. The Greensboro-based tournament had been played every year except for 1943 and 1944 when the event paused because of World War II.

The tournament name held until 1988 when Kmart became the title sponsor, and the event became known as the Kmart Greater Greensboro Open. After an eight-year run, Chrysler took over in 1996, and in 2003 the Greater was dropped in favor of Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. That name held until 2006 when Daimler Chrysler pulled out as title sponsor, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over. Starting with the 2014 Wyndham Championship, it became the last event before the playoffs, so it has ramifications for the FedEx Cup Championship. The Wyndham Championship is the last event in which golfers, vying for position in the playoff system, can earn points.

For 31 years between 1977 and 2007, Forest Oaks Country Club hosted the event, but it wasn’t considered “fan-friendly,” and the course wasn’t very memorable. One of the reasons that Forest Oaks got the event in 1977 from Sedgefield was because the course was too short and didn’t have the room and parking to handle big crowds. It was a big disappointment for the members when they lost the event, and many had been lobbying to get it back. With Wyndham taking over the sponsorship and having its offices nearby, and the membership invested $3 million in renovating the course and opened the doors for the return. When the course was reopened in 2007 to rave reviews, it was decided to change venues for 2008 and has held the event ever since.

Course information:

• Sedgefield Country Club
• Greensboro, N.C.
• 7,127 yards     Par 35-35–70

Between 1938 and 1976 Sedgefield held the Wyndham Championship 26 times and was considered a tremendous old Donald Ross course. Unfortunately, the course was short and small for galleries, so the event moved on. Still, the course was considered a gem, and for years membership tried to lure it back.

Sedgefield founded in 1925, is located in the rolling hills of Greensboro’s Sedgefield neighborhood. The club has hosted many amateur golf tournaments as well as 32 years of the Wyndham Championship. In addition to its Donald Ross-designed golf course, Sedgefield is perhaps best known for its signature clubhouse, a Tudor-style building housed in the framework of the original Sedgefield Inn built in 1925, the Atlantic Coast Conference was founded in this building in 1953.

A couple of years ago the club entrusted North Carolina course architect Kris Spence with the job of restoring the course back to its original Donald Ross design while making adjustments to bring the course in line with the modern game. Spence’s renovation added another 400 yards to Sedgefield, bringing its length to 7,130 yards. Par was 70 as the 18th hole was converted into a par 4.

Emphasis must be put on ball placement in the fairway to get the appropriate angle to the green. The greens at Sedgefield are very undulating and slope from back to front, with many falling off the edges into collection areas. In 2013 Sedgefield played to a 69.383 scoring average, more than a shot under par for the field. It ranked as the 23rd hardest of 43 courses for 2013. In 2016 it played to a scoring average of 69.209 and ranked 38th out of the 48 courses for the year. In 2017 the course played very easy to a 68.18 average and ranked 41st hardest course. In 2018 it played to a 68.69 average and ranked 40th. In 2019 it played to an average of 68.18 and was 41st. in 2021 it played to a 68.78 average and was 29th hardest, last year it played to a 68.88 average and was the 35th hardest.

So the course is challenging, but scores will be low.

It will be an exciting scenario for the players that a Donald Ross course will be used to get players ready for next month’s Tour Championship that will be played on another Ross course at Eastlake, outside of Atlanta.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Sedgefield

This is based on the most vital stats from Sedgefield C.C., data from last year’s Wyndham Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
For the second week in a row, the tour plays a course where driving it straight matters a lot, the key to playing well at Sedgefield is to hit it straight and position your drives for the shot into the green. Just like last week at the Rocket Mortgage at Detroit Golf Club, hitting fairways and greens is important. A look at the list of champions at the Wyndham since the event went back to Sedgefield in 2008 shows that the list of winners are guys that either hit is short and straight or, in the case of hitting it long, players like Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Si Woo Kim, and 2017 winner Henrik Stenson. Last year’s winner Kevin Kisner doesn’t hit it that far and has been one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour. The same with 2020 winner Jim Herman, who not only doesn’t hit it that far, he has a reputation of only playing well once or twice a year, and in most cases, he seems to win. Last year Kisner came into the Wyndham as one of the favorites as he was T-3rd in 2020 and had two other top-ten finishes. So it was no surprise to see Kisner win. At the other end of the spectrum, 2020 winner Herman was the biggest longshot winner of 2020, strolling into Sedgefield 192nd on the FedExCup point list. He only made seven cuts in his previous 18 starts, and his best finish was T-27th in the winners-only Sentry Tournament of Champions. He hadn’t played in the Wyndham since 2015 but strolled in like he owned the joint. He not only led the field in greens hit with 63, but he was also straight off the tee finishing 4th in driving accuracy. So, of course, there is no rhyme or reason for how this happened. Just like the clock striking midnight and turning the Princess into a pumpkin, the same happened to Herman as he missed the cut at his next stop at the Northern Trust and finished T-40th at the BMW. Since winning the Wyndham two years ago, Herman has played in 42 PGA Tour events and has had only two top-20 finishes, a T-20th at the 2021 Barbasol and T-7th in March at the second-tier Puerto Rico Open. Another incredible story was 2019 winner J.T. Poston. He is a very short hitter, coming into the week T-165th in driving distance. But when he is playing well, he hits it straight.
Another important aspect of driving for the long hitters the holes that dogleg needs players to lay it up to avoid going through the fairway, and it’s always best to be in the fairways. The course is tree line, and that is more of a hazard than the rough, which is not as penal as it could be. This year it has been pretty dry, but on three days, it did rain a total of four inches, the last time on Sunday the 31st. Despite that, I don’t think it will have any bearing on the rough, and the course will be dry and fast with the ball running down the fairways.
Like any other great Donald Ross course, the greens are tough, first in hitting them, but if you miss them, it’s a hard up and down. The greens are also pretty flat, and lots of putts are made by good and bad putters. So it’s a course that favors short hitters, those that do scramble well, and average putters. Last week was a perfect example, winner Tony Finau was able to hit 66 of 72 greens which ranked first, and scramble well, getting it up and down on all six greens he missed to rank 1st. He also putted well, ranking 15th in Strokes Gained Putting. All of this added up to Finau making 27 birdies, 2nd best for the week.
Last year at the Wyndham, Kisner wasn’t as good as Finau last week, but Kisner was ok. He hit 58 of the 72 greens to rank T-8th. In scrambling, he got it up and down on 9 of the 14 greens he missed, which ranked T-20th, and he was 8th in Strokes Gained putting. All of this helped Kisner make 23 birdies for the week, 4th best.
The same will have to happen this week for someone to win. One thing about Sedgefield, it’s a fun course to play, and yes, it’s challenging. It’s not going to be taxing like other courses on Tour, last year, Sedgefield was the 17th easiest course on tour in 2021 with a 68.88 average, just a bit more than a shot under par. Historically Sedgefield has played at the 69.99 average. This year mother nature is going to play a part in this. The forecast is for hot, muggy days with temperatures in the low 90s and afternoon Thunderstorms on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and each day will have just about a 50% chance of rain.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because putting the ball in play off the tee at Sedgefield is probably one of the most important items on this Donald Ross course. Last year’s winner Kevin Kisner was 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, as he was 31st in Driving Accuracy and T-8th in Greens in Regulation. Then getting the ball on the greens is important, and we all know how hard it is to hit a Donald Ross green. That is why next up is scrambling, because the greens are hard to hit, when you miss the green, you have to get it up and down to win. Last year Sedgefield ranked 14th in Scrambling, and our winner Kisner ranked T-20th in scrambling. Our next stat is Strokes Gained Putting, which is important. Last year Sedgefield was 12th in putting average while Kisner was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, so to play well, it’s important to putt well on this course. Last year 1,825 birdies were made, and only three other courses on the PGA Tour last year saw more birdies made. So we are using the Birdie average for our final category.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green, so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Look who picks up the most strokes on the greens.

*Birdie average: Players who average the most birdies made per round.

Here are the 133 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the stats for the Wyndham Championship

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Will Zalatoris – $10,900
• Webb Simpson – $10,700
• Shane Lowry – $10,600
• Sungjae Im – $10,500
• Billy Horschel – $10,3000
• Russell Henley – $9,800
• Corey Conners – $9,600
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,400
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Harold Varner III – $9,000

It’s the dog days of summer, the last event that means nothing other than a way to gamble this week.  Honestly wish I could just roll up on a hammock overlooking an ocean and just enjoy the laziness of doing nothing this week.  After a year of majors and now on the cusp of the FedExCup playoffs, this would be a good week to take off.  That is why the field is not great this week, honestly the week is more about saving players future in 2023 than playing golf this week. So here we go making a run on the players to look for.  But remember this, for guys like Zalatoris on down, it’s getting ready for the big FedExCup push.  On paper Will Zalatoris at $10,900 should be a very good pick.  This is a ball striker type of course that poor putters are able to win on.  So that fits Will perfectly, right?  I wonder if he is a July/August type of player.  Sure he was hot in 2020 on the Korn Ferry Tour, but last year and this year haven’t been great in July and August, so I say take a pass on Will.  Webb Simpson at $10,700 is a sure thing, he has finished in the top-ten in his last five Wyndham’s and six of his last seven starts.  The course is perfect for him, he has won it in 2011 so he is the Natural pick for this week.  Shane Lowry at $10,600 is a yes for me, played ok at Sedgefield and played well most of the year.  Sungjae Im at $10,500 is my favorite, in 12 rounds at Sedgefield has been in the 60s 11 times, he is 43 under on the course.  He also was T-2nd at the 3M, yes he is my favorite.  The course also suits Billy Horschel at $10,3000, he has three top-six finishes in his last five Wyndham starts, this is a course perfect for him.  The same with Russell Henley at $9,800, he plays well at Sedgefield and has played ok this year, he is a yes from me.  Corey Conners at $9,600 is a no, just don’t see him fitting well at Sedgefield so not interested in him.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,400 is a tossup, don’t think the course suits him but has played well of late.  Still, he is a no for me.  Adam Scott – $9,200 is a person to think about, yes he hasn’t done great this year, but he also is very consistent.  He was T-2nd, losing in the playoff last year, so he could be great this week.  Harold Varner III at $9,000 is a player to consider, has played good at Sedgefield and could do great.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Denny McCarthy is priced high at $8,900 but has played well in this event and was T-6th last month at John Deere.  I say no based on better players, but still have to think about him.  Look at Si Woo Kim at $8,800, he was T-2nd last year, T-3rd in 2020, 5th in 2019 and won in 2016.  Has played well of late, so take him he is great.  Kevin Kisner at $8,700 is a good pick, plays well at Sedgefield winning last year and finishing T-3rd in 2020.  Yes, he missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage but still think that won’t happen this week.  I have said how much I like Joohyung Kim the last couple of weeks, now he is $8,600 and I still say yes on this kid.  J.T. Poston at $8,200 is a very savvy pick.  He has won at Sedgefield and played great in the summer, great pick.  Justin Rose at $8,000 is a great pick for the course, you never know when he will put things together.  Kevin Streelman at $7,600 is a very safe bet, makes a lot of cuts and played well including a runner-up at Barbasol last month.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Wyndham

C.T. Pan at $7,400 is ok on this course and should make the cut and get you points.  Harris English at $7,300 is a safe bet based on him always making the cut at the Wyndham and despite being injured, has played ok this year.  Rory Sabbatini at $6,900 is good for making cuts and making some points.  Scott Piercy at $6,800 is a great pick, has made his last seven cuts at the Wyndham and this year been good, was 3rd at Barracuda.  Zach Johnson at $6,600 is a very good pick, does well at Sedgefield, and has done ok in making cuts this year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wyndham Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Sedgefield is a very versatile course. Length is not critical because the course plays at about 7,127 yards, just a notch below average for a PGA Tour event. With length not being a factor, players are afforded the opportunity to use either driver or long iron off the tee. The most critical thing for the field is managing the course’s slope. To do that, ball control and accuracy are essential.
• Now this tournament was made famous by Sam Snead, who won it eight times, the PGA Tour record for the most victories by a player in a single event. Snead captured the inaugural event in 1938, and when he won it for the eighth time in 1965, he became the oldest winner in PGA Tour history at 52 years, 10 months, and eight days.
• Between 1949 and 1965, Snead was never higher than 8th and won $37,827 or about the same amount that the player in 28th place will win this week.  For the record, if Snead had played all 17 events at the present purse of $6.4 million, his Greensboro earnings would have been around $8 million.  Oh, Snead is the only winner in Greensboro history to defend his championship, but Kevin Kisner could join Snead as back-to-back Wyndham winners, but I wouldn’t put much money on this happening.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Length is not an issue so that open’s things up quite a bit. Look for the winner to be someone who doesn’t like to muscle up with the driver, and settles for using a long iron for control. Past winners of the event are some of the best iron players on tour. The likes of Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Mark O’Meara, Davis Love III, and Steve Elkington have hoisted the trophy. Look for the winner to be able to manage the surroundings, as the undulations are the most challenging part of the golf course. There is a reason that 2015 winner Davis Love III won at age 51, which is experience.  The past winners from Sedgefield, except for 2019, J.T. Poston and Arjun Atwal in 2010, are all experience players so look for someone like that to win.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium at this Donald Ross gem, just like it was last week at Detroit Golf Club.   Hitting lots of greens goes a long way at the Wyndham Championship.  Look for the winner to hit greens in bunches.
• In the summertime, North Carolina and the Greensboro area are rife with heat and humidity, primarily since it was hot last week. This will be important because the bermudagrass greens will bake, making the undulated greens even more challenging.
• Talking about the weather, this could be a problem for this week.  It will be hot and humid all week at Greensboro, but the major problem is thunderstorms which will be a threat each day.