BlogFedEx St. Jude Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s the home stretch of the PGA Tour season. After 44 events spread over the last 11 months, their season is over for many. Guys like Matt Wallace (126), Danny Willett (130), Nick Hardy (132), Cameron Champ (133), Francesco Molinari (137), Zach Johnson (140), Rory Sabbatini (141), Garrick Higgo (146), Charley Hoffman (150), Bubba Watson (151), Satoshi Kodaira (153), Andrew Landry (155), Luke Donald (159), Vaughn Taylor (164) Sean O’Hair (169), Brandt Snedeker (171), Kevin Chappell (172), Ryan Moore (174), Camilo Villegas (176), Aaron Baddeley (184), Harris English (186), Brian Gay (187), Jim Herman (197), Jason Dufner (200), Fabian Gomez (209) and Tiger Woods (214) are finished for this year.

For many that finish worse than 126th, they won’t have the month off because they will have to attend the Korn Ferry Tour finale, many will be a grind just like Q-School used to be.

But for those going into the playoffs, it’s about making as much money as possible. For each level or playoff event they play in, the bonus money gets even more significant, and for one fortunate guy, there is a $15 million award awaiting him (out of a total bonus pool of $70 million).

Last year we saw the end of an iconic event as the Northern Trust was played for the last time in the New York/Boston area. Since 1967 when it started as the Westchester Classic, it was a very popular event being played at Westchester CC. With the advent of the FedExCup playoffs, it became the first leg of the playoffs. It was played on iconic Northern Eastern courses like Ridgewood CC, Plainfield CC, Bethpage State Park, Glen Oaks Club, TPC Boston and Liberty National.

But with the sponsor Northern Trust bowing out last year, FedEx stepped in but asked that the tournament would be moved to its home base, Memphis. The change leaves a significant void as the PGA Tour will only play once a year in the North East at the Travelers in Hartford, Ct. The same thing has happened to the Chicago area, which for decades had the Western Open only to see it change to the BMW Championship. It has continued with its historical roots in Chicago, but in the last 9 years has only been played in Chicago four times. The good news is it will return to Chicago next year when Olympia Fields holds the BMW for 2023.

So for the Northeast part of the country, this week will be sad. But for Memphis, they get a great event.

Big changes to the World Rankings

Starting this week, the Official World Golf Rankings will change to a field rating-based system. The new ranking will create field ratings for each event that are based on each player’s strokes gained/world rating, which is determined by round-by-round stroke-play scores that are adjusted for the relative difficulty of each round. The sum of the performance points, calculated using strokes gained world rating, for every player in the field will determine the field rating, which effectively replaces the strength of field. Previously, only players in the top 200 determined field strengths.

But the OWGR plans to place a premium on winning and major performance. At the same time, it eliminates minimum point levels, so what is going to happen is that many events outside of the PGA Tour will not be giving more points. So in the future, playing on some tours like the DP World Tour, Asian Tour, and Japan Tour will find it harder to have players in the top 100.

So it will be interesting to see what happens in the future. One thing that we saw last week, in the future, we may not see another JooHyung Kim pull off the accomplishment of being able to earn a PGA Tour card. Kim earned his tour card by winning the Wyndham Championship. But if the new system was in effect in January, instead of this week, there is a chance that Kim wouldn’t have been in the position to get to the PGA Tour. Because he would not get as many points for events in Asia at the beginning of the year, he may not have gotten into the top 100 after winning the Singapore International. He may not have been given the opportunity to finish 17th at the Byron Nelson, 23rd at the U.S. Open, 3rd at the Scottish, and 47th at the British Open. So for all we know, Kim is a perfect example that these new changes are not in the best interest of players not on the PGA Tour. Many players on the DP Tour have already voiced their concerns, but the system is now in place, and nothing can be done about it.

Joo Hyung Kim

For the last couple of weeks, I have been saying what a great player Kim is, and he showed it with his victory at the Wyndham. At age 20 years, 1 month, and 17 days, Kim became the second-youngest winner since World War II (youngest: Jordan Spieth, 2013 John Deere Classic) and the firstborn in the 2000s to win on the PGA Tour after he closed with a stunning final round of 9-under 61 for a 20-under winning total. Hard to believe that he made a quadruple-bogey 8 on his first hole of the tournament. With the win, he not only earned his PGA Tour card for next year (He would have gotten that anyway without the win), but because of the victory, he became a full-time member and eligible to play in the FedExCup playoffs. He also climbed to 34th in the rankings, so he has a good chance of making it to the Tour Championship. If that happens, he would also receive invites to play in all four majors, so his accomplishments are pretty significant.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Tournament information:

This is the 56th annual event for the recently changed FedEx St. Jude Championship. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in thrilling fashion back in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.

Three years later, in 1979, American Express pulled out as title sponsor, and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990, when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event for 12 years.  Northern Trust took over sponsorship in 2017 and gave it up last year.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship, which used to be played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

In the first year of the playoffs,  Westchester was used, and Steve Stricker won.  Since then, the FedEx St. Jude has moved away from Westchester and never went back. Many reasons for not going back, but most of them were because of the logistics and not the course itself.

The future of the FedEx St. Jude changed a bit with the new schedule coming out for 2019.  With the Dell Technology leaving, that left the Boston market with no PGA Tour events.  But the FedEx St. Jude stepped up and said they would put TPC Boston into its rota, and the course held the event in 2020.  After that, it was supposed to move around the New York and New Jersey area, but it was played for the last time in the New York, New Jersey area at Liberty National Golf Club.

Course information:

• TPC Southwind
• Germantown, Tenn.
• 7,243 yards     Par 35-35–70

The TPC at Southwind opened in 1988 and became the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic in 1989. The course was designed by Ron Prichard, with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. The course opened as a small, tight course with lots of trees, bunkers, and water hazards. Originally, Southwind featured zoysia grass on the fairways and bent grass on the greens. The course stayed this way until after the 2004 FedEx St. Jude Classic. Following the tournament’s conclusion, the course closed for renovation.

All of the greens were redone during the renovation, and the grass was switched from bentgrass to Champion Bermuda Grass. Many of the fairways were narrowed and re-contoured to make an already tight course. Additionally, 15 new bunkers were added, bringing the total number of sand traps to 96, three of the 10 water hazards were enlarged, and more than 125 trees were planted on the course. Overall, the course yardage increased by more than 200 yards to its current length of 7,244 yards. After the renovation, the course’s rating went up to 75.9 with a slope rating of 138.

Last year when it held the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational,  TPC Southwind played to an average of 69.05 and was ranked 33rd on the PGA Tour.  In 2020 TPC Southwind played to an average of 69.55 and ranked 14th hardest on the PGA Tour.  It was the second time since they kept course stats that TPC Southwind played under par.  In 2019 it played under par for the first year at 69.50.  Still, the holes are tough, as seven of the last ten holes were played over par last year. four of the holes were in the toughest 300 holes on the PGA Tour in 2021, with the par 4 fifth hole being the 102nd hardest with a 4.217 average.

Before last year’s WGC event, the course saw all of the bunkers completely overhauled, with several eliminated while a couple added. But overall, the course played about the same as it played in 2020.  For most of the field, the course is delightful to play.  If there is a key to winning at TPC Southwind, it’s hitting lots of greens.  The last seven and 11 out of the last eleven winners finished in the top-ten in Greens in Regulation, in 2016 Daniel Berger was 1st in that stat.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Southwind.

This is based on the most important stats for the TPC Southwind, based on data from last year’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
TPC Southwind has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1989. Between then and 2018, it was the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Between 2019 and 2021, it hosted the World Golf Championship FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Now the first event of the FedExCup playoffs, which last year was the Northern Trust, will now make TPC Southwind it’s new home.
The one surprising aspect of TPC Southwind was that many felt it would be a tougher test. The last year the FedEx St. Jude Classic was played at TPC Southwind in 2018, the course played to a 70.52 scoring average and was ranked 11th on the PGA Tour. Since course stats were kept in 2003, the oddity of TPC Southwind was that it always played over par. So when the WGC-FedEx was moved to the course in 2019, it played to a 69.50 average many wondered what had happened to the course. The course played again under par with a 69.55 average in 2020 and was ranked 14th hardest. Last year the average went down to 69.05, and it ranked 33rd on the PGA Tour. A couple of reasons for the drop first, with the event played at the end of July and August, it didn’t rain as much, so the rough wasn’t as high and lush as it was when the old FedEx St. Jude Classic was played in mid-June. Another reason for the lower scores, the old FedEx St. Jude had fields of 156, while the field for the World Golf Championship is under 80 players.

Memphis has been pretty dry of late. It had about two inches of rain in June, but most of it fell earlier in June. In July, rainfall was down to under an inch for the month, so the rough will not be the way they like it. Now it’s rainy at TPC Southwind on Monday, and they expect rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, but with the high temperatures, it won’t be enough to affect the course.

In looking at our four categories, our first for TPC Southwind are strokes gained tee-to-green. Last year, the course ranked 25th in driving accuracy and 20th in Greens in Regulation, while Abraham Ancer, who won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude last year, was T-10th in driving accuracy and T-5th in greens in regulation, so he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. During the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude, the course ranked 22nd in driving accuracy and 9th in greens in regulation, while winner Justin Thomas was T-12th in driving accuracy and T-7th in greens in regulation, so he was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Over the years, this has been an essential stat for the champions. In 2019, Brooks Koepka won and was 6th. In 2018 Dustin Johnson won and was 1st in this stat. The same with the winner Daniel Berger in 2017 and 2016, he was first in both years. In 2015, champion Fabian Gomez ranked 1st, so that is pretty consistent, and the reason that strokes gained tee-to-green is essential.
The next significant stat is one-putt percentage, TPC Southwind Ranked 49th last year, it ranked 36th in 2020, 47th in 2019, and 45th in 2018. This means that many players had many one-putts, probably since the greens at TPC Southwind are large at 12,276 Square feet. Last year’s winner Abraham Ancer was T-18th in this stat with 34 one-putts. In 2020 Justin Thomas didn’t do well in this stat, he ranked T-51st with only 29 one-putts. The previous year Brooks Koepka was T-1st as he had 42 one-putts. In 2018 Johnson ranked T-30th, while in 2016, he was T-52nd, while Gomez ranked T-2nd in that stat in 2015. Still, the norm is for the best players to have a lot of one-putt greens.
Our third important stat is scrambling; players will miss greens and get it up and down. The course ranked 34th last year and was 31st in 2020. In 2019 it ranked 37th, and 31st in 2018. Last year’s winner
Ancer ranked 1st, Justin Thomas was 6th in 2020, while in the previous year, Koepka was 1st while Johnson was 4th in 2018, T-24th in 2016, and Gomez was 8th in 2015.
Our final category was birdie average, last year, it ranked T-32nd, while in 2020, it ranked 16th, while in 2019, it ranked T-24th. In 2018 it ranked 10th, in 2017, it ranked T-10th, it was 14th in 2016, and 2015 was 11th which means it was hard to make birdies as the field average was 3.93 last year, 3.70 in 2020, 3.73 in 2019, 3.27 in 2018, 3.11 in 2017, 3.16 in 2016 and 3.15 in 2015. For Ancer last year, he made 20 birdies with ranked T-6th. In 2020 Thomas made 19 birdies, ranking T-8th, while in 2019, Koepka averaged 5.25 birdies per round and was 3rd. Johnson also averaged 5.25 in 2018 and ranked 1st, in 2016, was 5.00 and was T-1st, while Gamez averaged 5.00 and was T-2nd in 2015.
So yes, TPC Southwind can be considered a shotmaker type, of course, and we will probably get a shotmaker winner.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: The course may have only been the 33rd hardest course on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens, as it ranked 20th in this category last year. So this is important to find a player that will do well in this stat.

*One-Putt Percentage: The figure that shows how many times a player one-putts a green.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

The 119 of the 121 players from this year’s FedEx St. Jude field with stats from 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to get all 119 stats for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,000
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,800
• Xander Schauffele – $10,600
• Cameron Smith – $10,500
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,300
• Justin Thomas – $10,200
• Jon Rahm – $10,000
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,800
• Tony Finau – $9,700
• Will Zalatoris – $9,500
• Cameron Young – $9,300
• Jordan Spieth – $9,100
• Viktor Hovland – $9,000

A week in which we will have to work hard to find some good picks.  Most weeks, we can find some marquee name or good player under $9,000, but we have to search hard for one this week.  The first 13 are all good choices yes, a few are problematic in my mind, but most of them are viable players we would like to pick.  The only problem, the first six are $10,000 and over, so you will only get a chance to pick one of them.  So our strategy has to be a bit different, and we will have to pick from the bottom of the pool.

Out of the gate, we have Rory McIlroy at $11,000.  He has had a great year, he was 3rd at the British Open, and I can see picking him this week.  He has played ok in the past at TPC Southwind, was T-4th in 2019, and T-12th last year.  Still, I will pass on him mainly because of his high price tag.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,800 is also a fortune; frankly, I will pass on him because of that.  He also has played well at TPC Southwind, finishing 14th last year and T-15th in 2020.  He also has struggled since finishing T-2nd at the U.S. Open, he was T-21st at St Andrews.  Some will disagree with me, considering Scottie is first on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation, a key stat in playing well.  Xander Schauffele at $10,600 is also a no, yes he was T-6th at TPC Southwind in 2020 but was T-46th last year and T-27th in 2019.  He is 11th in Greens in Regulation, but just don’t think the course is a good fit for him.  Cameron Smith at $10,500 is my first person to think yes about.  He was T-5th last year at TPC Southwind, yes he is 51st in Greens in Regulation, but he is one of the best putters on tour, plus he is first in Birdie average, an important stat for this week.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,300 is also a no for me, in three starts, his best is T-12th in 2019, and he is 27th in Greens in Regulation.  Sorry just don’t like him on this course.  Now Justin Thomas at $10,200 is another story, he won at TPC Southwind in 2020, and I think he will bust out.  HE is 31st in hitting greens, but if you look at other key stats, he is 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 5th in One-putt percentage, 14th in Scrambling, and 2nd in Birdie Average.  One choice that is hard is saying no to Jon Rahm at $10,000,  It’s hard to say no because he is 2nd in Greens in Regulation, but the rest of his stats show a bad fit for him at TPC Southwind.  He has played twice on the course, was 7th in 2019 and T-52nd in 2020.  Didn’t play last year, so like I say, don’t pick him this week.   Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,800 is a yes, he was T-4th at TPC Southwind in 2019, T-6th in 2020, and T-57th last year.  Yes, his greens in regulation are not good at 73rd, but he won the U.S. Open and is doing good in other stats like 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 2nd in Scrambling, the big reason to take him.  Tony Finau at $9,700 is a no, TPC Southwind has not been kind to him in four starts his best finish is T-27th, so pass on him.  The same with Will Zalatoris at $9,500, I know he was T-8th last year on this course and is 9th in Greens in Regulation, but he fired his caddie midway through the Wyndham, so he just is not doing well right now.  Now Cameron Young at $9,300 is a good pick even though he is 155th in Greens in Regulation.  He has been playing so well, and his last two starts are a 2nd at the British and T-2nd at the Rocket Mortgage.  Jordan Spieth at $9,100 is priced ok, he does have a pair of T-12th on the course, and honestly, I think he is going to finish in the top ten.  I think he will be a factor this year in the playoffs, so yes worth taking him.  Viktor Hovland at $9,000 is a no, he just hasn’t done anything in his previous visits to TPC Southwind and hasn’t played that great in the last five months other than a T-4th at the British.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I like Sam Burns at $8,600, he was T-2nd last year at Southwind, and we know what a great year he has had.  He is 19th in Greens in Regulation, this week will be his week. Hideki Matsuyama at $8,400 is a thought, he was T-2nd last year at TPC Southwind but he also WD from his last start at the 3M Open, so buyer beware (He has withdrawn, due to injury).  Shane Lowry at $8,300 is good, he is a great ball striker and is 21st in Greens in Regulation.  Last year Lowry finished T-23rd at Southwind but was T-6th in 2020.  Billy Horschel at $8,200 is another good pick, 23rd in Greens in Regulation, plus he was T-9th at Southwind in 2019, T-25th in 2020, and T-17th last year.  But he also played the course 8 times in the FedEx St. Jude Classic, including a T-4th in 2017, T-8th in 2015, and T-6th in 2014.  He is a great dark horse this week.  Now, will JooHyung Kim, who is $8,000, still be fresh and playing well this week?  I think he will, he has been getting better on each start, and I can see him finishing in the top ten this week.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Northern Trust

Gave you a lot of choices in the $7,500 to $8,900 category.  Good news, cheap bargains like Adam Scott at $7,500, he was T-10th on this course in 2017 and always hits lots of greens.  At worst, he is going to make the cut which is good.  Webb Simpson, at $7,300, has some good and bad news.  First, his record on this course is great, was T-15th last year, T-12th in 2020, 2nd in 2019, and T-3rd in 2014.  The bad news is he hasn’t played that great since rejoining the tour in March after surgery and withdrew after the first round last week.  So on paper, he seems good for the course, but his game could be in trouble.  J.T. Poston is a better pick at $7,300, he has played well over the summer, including the win at the John Deere, and he was T-30th at Southwind in 2020.  Stewart Cink, at $6,600, is good at Southwind, including a T-4th in 2018, he is good at making cuts which makes money.  Then we have Rickie Fowler at $6,400.  Hard to believe he is this low, think he will make the cut which is what you want.  He also comes to this event with a new caddy, firing Joe Skovron, who has been on the bag since he turned pro in 2009, the change may do him good.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• In picking a winner, it should be more feel than strategy.  The most important stat to look for is players high up in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  It’s no surprise to see that 13 of the last 18 winners have been in the top ten in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, with eight of them leading that stat, including 2020 winner Justin Thomas, 2018 winner Dustin Johnson, and 2017 champion Daniel Berger.  So for this week, Jon Rahm is 1st on this year’s list, followed by #2 Cameron Young, #3 Rory McIlroy, #4 Keith Mitchell, #5 Brendan Steele, #6 Corey Conners, and #7 Matt Fitzpatrick.
• In trying to pick a winner, look at those that seem to be just starting to play well.  Maybe this means those that have had a good finish in the British Open, 3M Open Rocket Mortgage, and Wyndham.  Also, look for a player that has had tournaments ruined by one poor round like Taylor Pendrith.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium. Just like in a U.S. Open, hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  In the last 23 years, six champions led the greens hit category, and 19 of the 24 were in the top 11 of this category.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
• Look for a winning score of 266 this week, that’s the average winning total since TPC Southwind was first used in 1989.  Last year Abraham Ancer won with a 264 total.
• Since 1989, only eight champions (Dicky Pride in 1994, Notah Begay III in 2000, Dustin Johnson in 2012, Harris English in 2013, Daniel Berger in 2016 & ’17, Brooks Koepka in 2019, and Justin Thomas last year) were younger than 30.  Six of them were over 40, the oldest being Woody Austin in 2007 at 43 years, 4 months, Greg Norman in 1997 at 42 years, 4 months, and 2006 winner Maggert who was 42 years, 3 months.  Last year’s winner Abraham Ancer was 30 years, 5 months, and 17 days old.  In 2019 Brooks Koepka was 29 years, 2 months, 25 days, while in 2016 (also won in 2017) Daniel Berger was 23 years, 2 months, and 5 days old, making him the tied for the youngest winner in Memphis.  Bob Lunn in 1968, was also 23 years, 2 months, and 5 days old.  Another oldie was in 2011 when Harrison Frazar was 40 days short of his 40th birthday while Brian Gay in 2010 was 37 years, one month old.

Last but not least is the weather.

• It’s Memphis, and it’s August, so of course, it’s going to be hot, muggy, and stormy.  Each day will be in the low-90s, but it will feel more with very high humidity.  No real rain is in the forecast, but this time of year, Memphis gets afternoon thunderstorms.  Making it hotter, there is very little wind in the forecast, which will make the scores lower.  The course will be a bit wet from rain on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.