BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Will gets off the schneid

So in the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Will Zalatoris finally got off the schneid to get his first PGA Tour victory. He did it in dramatic fashion after a first-round 71 found his groove to shoot 63-65-66. It was only a matter of time before a win would drop onto his resume. He had won more money and had the best world ranking of anyone without a PGA Tour win. Over the year, he had a remarkable record with nine top 10 in 23 starts and was runner-up three times, twice in playoff losses. In his young career in majors, he has six top-10 finishes in 10 starts, including runner-up finishes in the Masters, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open. So it was easy to see that it was only a matter of time before the “W” came his way.

One of the reasons for Zalatoris not winning was his inability to make clutch putts. Going into the week, Zalatoris was 120th in strokes gained/putting, and in that critic inside 10 feet range, Will ranked 186th out of 202 players. So it’s not unkind to say Zalatoris was not a very good putter. Putting was not his only problem, before the St. Jude Zalatoris was 135th in scrambling and 108th in sand saves, another source of why he isn’t a superstar. On Sunday, all of that changed. On the third hole in the final round, Zalatoris made a 15-footer for birdie, and on the 10th hole, he made a 7-footer for birdie. He made an important 5-footer on 13 for par, and on 18, he made a 10-footer that got him in the playoff. On the second playoff hole, he made a 13-footer which continued the playoff with Sepp Straka, and then on the third playoff hole made a 7-footer to claim victory. For the week, he was 25th in strokes gained/putting and was T-36th in putting inside 10 feet, making 63 of 71 putts in that range. These aren’t career-altering numbers, but it shows that he can win if he could have a half-decent putting week. Now many will note a big change Zalatoris made when he fired his longtime caddie after the second round at the Wyndham. His new caddie Joel Stock was not allowed to read any putts the first two days, but when he started to ask Stock on Saturday, things started to jive. So does that mean that we can give him the FedEx Cup? No, but he has a lot of momentum going into the BMW, and the two courses he will be playing in the next two weeks really favor his sharp tee-to-green game. As we have been saying all year, if Zalatoris could find a little magic on the greens, he would be tough to beat, and he proved all that over the weekend at the FedEx St. Jude.

Disaster for other top players in Memphis

At the Northern Trust, there was this weird vibe of top players missing the cut. Even with the change from the New York/Boston area to Memphis, the vibe continued as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Billy Horschel, and Jordan Spieth all missed the cut. For Scheffler, the timing sucked, just like it did when he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Scheffler was at the top of the FedEx Cup point list and now falls to second. It’s not a done deal, and the odds are in his favor to win not only the FedEx Cup but the player of the year honors, but for many who bet for Scheffler, it was a terrible week. The good news for Scheffler fans, the week after he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, Scheffler was runner-up at the Charles Schwab.

Another shock was Rory McIlroy also missing the cut. He had a pretty good record at TPC Southwind, so the last thing we thought about was him missing the cut. Especially when we see that since his runner-up finishes at the Masters, he hadn’t finished worse than T-19th in his last eight starts as he was eighth at the PGA Championship, T-5 at the U.S. Open, third at the British Open, and won at Canada. It’s not like he played terribly with rounds of 70-69, but with bogeys on 6 and 9 on Friday (started on 10) he missed the cut by a shot. It was easy to see why he missed the cut, he hit only 11 of 28 fairways and 19 of 36 greens, his worst tee-to-green performance in 2022. Now the big question will be, was this an anomaly or will it carry over to the BMW this week? Probably not when you consider the last time McIlroy missed back-to-back cuts was at the 2017 Irish and Scottish Opens. The only time he missed back-to-back cuts on the U.S. Open was in 2012, when he missed both the Players and Memorial. But two months later, McIlroy went on a tear and won four events, including the PGA Championship, Deutsche Bank, and BMW Championship, which led to him winning the FedEx Cup that year and finishing the year winning the DP World. So I don’t see McIlroy playing poorly this week.

As for Spieth, can’t see him playing badly at the BMW since he was playing well coming into the Memphis. But his season has seen many lows and highs, so don’t expect much from him. As for Horschel has struggled since winning the Memorial, missed three cuts in six starts, and hasn’t finished better than T-21 at St. Andrews.

Player of the Year

Have to think that with Cameron Smith withdrawing from the BMW due to a hip injury, the odds of Scottie Scheffler winning MVP honors has seriously increased. He was considered a shoo-in for the award after winning the Masters, but with Smith winning at the Players and British gave credence to him being player of the year if he won the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Smith was in great shape on Sunday morning before everyone found out that he was being penalized for an infraction on Saturday. With the bad news, Smith shot even par 70 and dropped from being just two back (on Saturday after the round) to finishing T-13. But on Monday morning, when Smith’s manager announced he was withdrawing from the BMW with hip problems, it was a bit of a shock. First, not many people knew he had hip problems. According to Smith’s trainer Nic Catterall, he told Golf Digest that he has had a sciatic nerve problem for most of the year, and they have done a good job managing it. But on the wet grounds at Memphis, it inflamed and created problems on the weekend. So to play it safe, he went home to Florida for some rest and to rehab the hip ailment with the goal of coming back and playing well at East Lake for the final playoff event. Still, the big question will be if he wins the Tour Championship will it be enough for Player of the year honors? That will be a tough sale on players to vote for him, especially since he hasn’t quelled the rumors that he is going to play LIV Golf.

Now I can see Scheffler not winning player of the year if he plays poorly the next two weeks and Zalatoris runs the tables and wins the BMW and Tour Championship. Now in the history of the playoffs, there have been 11 times in which a player won twice in the playoffs, including last year with Patrick Cantlay. But it has never been done three times, so that would be a very good accomplishment and could be enough to make Zealotris player of the year.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Getting to East Lake

Going into this week, the big news will be getting into the top 30 and playing at the Tour Championship. We talked about the importance of it, first of all, the money and the potential money to be earned next week at the Tour Championship. But the second big perk, and to some, the biggest perk of all, is those playing in the Tour Championship get into just about any event in 2023, including the four majors. If you look at the list of those on the bubble, for most of them, playing at East Lake is very important. In looking at J.J. Spaun on the bubble, you have to wonder if he isn’t kicking himself. Going into the final round in Memphis, he was the leader but shot 78 on Sunday and went from first to a T-42. Anything in the top 10 would have sealed the deal, but now Spaun will have to play well to protect his place.

Another person who will kick himself is Seamus Power, who after finished T-9 at the ATYT Pebble Beach, was eighth in the rankings. He struggled to miss his next three cuts, but after finishing T-9 at the PGA Championship was 22nd. But since then has missed three cuts in his last five starts, and after missing the cut at St. Andrews and at the FedEx St. Jude, he is now 36th with very little chance of getting back into the top 30.

• 25 – Joohyung Kim
• 26 – Davis Riley
• 27 – Sahith Theegala
• 28 – Kevin Kisner
• 29 – Corey Conners
• 30 – J.J. Spaun
• 31 – Aaron Wise
• 32 – Maverick McNealy
• 33 – K.H. Lee
• 34 – Lucas Glover
• 35 – Denny McCarthy
• 36 – Seamus Power
• 37 – Shane Lowry

Tournament information:

The Western Open was originally founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, this will be the 117th edition of the event

From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations, including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco, to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.

In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.

This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name changed to the BMW Championship. Along with the change, it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962, the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, in 2013, it went for the first time to Conway Farms. In 2014 it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver, going back to Conway Farms in 2015, Crooked Stick in 2016, and Conway Farms for the 2017 BMW Championship. In 2018 it was played at Aronimink, in 2019 at Medinah, and in 2020 at Olympia Fields. Last year it was played in Caves Valley, outside of Baltimore. Next year the event returns to Olympia Fields, while in 2024, it will be played at Castle Pines in Colorado. That course was the site of The International between 1986 and 2006.

Course information:

• Wilmington Country Club (South Course)
• Wilmington, De.
• 7,534 yards     Par 35-36–71

Since the advent of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the Western Open is now the BMW Championship. Between 1974 and 2007 the event was played in the Chicago area, but since 2008 it has moved around the country. This week the PGA Tour is going to another great gem of a course that has never seen a professional event. The South Course at Wilmington Country Club, a private course 8 miles northwest of downtown Wilmington will hold the BMW Championship this week.

The club’s history goes back 120 years when a nine-hole course was first opened. The course expanded and held the 1913 U.S. Women’s Amateur. In the 1950s, the club bought a new piece of land to expand to 36 holes. They got the preeminent architect at the time, Robert Trent Jones, to build them a course, and in 1959 the South Course was opened, followed a year later by a shorter version which became the North Course, designed by Dick Wilson. Over the years, the course held several USGA events, including the 1965 and 1978 U.S. Junior Amateur, the 1971 U.S. Amateur, the 1978 U.S. Girls’ Junior Amateur, and the 2003 U.S. Mid-Amateur. In 2013 the club hosted the Palmer Cup, a match that pitted amateurs from the United States against European amateurs. The American team had Justin Thomas, who did win the 2019 BMW Championship and is probably the only pro in the field this year with competitive experience at Wilmington C.C. Before that event, the South Course went through a significant alternation in both 2008 and 2013, and afterward, its members decided they wanted to hold a professional event on the course. They spent most of 2020 thinking about what alternations they needed to make the course PGA Tour worthy. They looked to having Keith Foster, who did the 2008 renovations, to make the changes. But on August 10th of 2020, things changed when the course was in the line of an EF-1 tornado. The high winds and rain downed 300 trees and destroyed every bunker on the North and South courses. This changed the renovations that were about to be done, and a new plan was implemented. Architect Andrew Green was renovating Oak Hill, which will hold next year’s PGA Championship, along with renovations at Congressional, Inverness, and Scioto Country Club. Green quickly assessed what needed to be done to the South Course and was hired. Based on his plans in November of 2020, the club was awarded the BMW Championship.

Green didn’t change the routing of the holes but made drastic changes to holes 3, 5, and 14 (holes used for BMW) to help protect the strategic integrity of the holes. Six new tees were built with 250,000 square feet of construction, and close to 300 yards were added. He changed fairways bunkers to make them come into play for PGA Tour professionals, along with bunkers around the greens. With his changes, the course will play to a par of 71 and 7,534 yards.

It will be a new adventure for the 68 players on the field. Wilmington isn’t a spot that most of the pros go to. It’s safe to say that not many of the players have seen Wilmington Country Club. The only one that has played the course in competition is Justin Thomas, who in 2013 played in the Palmer Cup and in his four matches, won three times and halved one match. The good news is the weather is going to be perfect Monday through Wednesday. so players and caddies will have plenty of time to prep themselves for the course. Historically when a new course comes to the PGA Tour, the winner is a person you least expect to win. That didn’t happen last year at Caves Valley as Patrick Cantlay won. But there are a lot of examples of this happening. In June of last year, Garrick Higgo won the Palmetto Championship, and a month previously, K.H. Lee won the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Rance. Even back in 2020 and the C.J. Cup at Shadow Creek, Jason Kokrak collected his first PGA Tour victory. This is not a given rule; Collin Morikawa won the WGC-Workday Concession in February, and he was a proven winner. The point is anybody can win this week. As for the course itself, the South Course rating is 75.9, with a slope rating of 142. So what does all of this mean?

We feel that the South Course will be set up for scoring opportunities. Two of the eleven par 4s are under 400 yards and five under 430. There will be three holes 490 yards and longer, so the par 4s will be accessible. The par 5s will be hard. Two of the three will be 634 yards (12) and 649 yards (14). The last one, #3, will play at 582 yards, so birdies will be hard to come from. As for the par 3s, three will play over 205 yards, with the 13th the shortest at 170 yards. The fairways will be generous, but rough does come into play along with 32 fairway bunkers. As for the rough, the weather has been dry the last month, so we don’t expect high, tough rough on the combination of tall fescue and bluegrass rough. In looking at the configuration of the holes, there are only four severe doglegs (1, 3, 11, and 18), so this may turn out to be a long hitter haven who don’t have to worry about keeping it the fairway or running through the fairways. Six lakes spread around the course with water coming into play on 5 (2nd shot to 5, 3rd shot to 12, the tee shot on 13, the tee shot on 15 & tee shot at 18) holes.

Now the greens will be a different story. They are classic Robert Trent Jones big greens, they average 8,100 square feet. So hitting the greens will be a bit easier, but getting it close will be the key. So there is a possibility of putts in the 50 to 70-foot range. So look for the players to have second putts in the five to eight-foot range, mainly for parts.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at the South Course of Wilmington Country Club:

Since we have no data to base our conclusions on for our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats are needed to succeed this week. The first will be accuracy and length off the tee. Will the course put any fear of the players off the tee? I doubt it. zif players can hit it far and straight, they will have an advantage. Driving it on the South Course will be much like last week at TPC Southwind. So our first category is strokes gained/tee-to-green. Now, if players can take advantage of length off the tee, hitting greens will be easier. So hitting greens in regulation won’t be that important, but proximity to the hole is essential for those that hit it in the fairway. Those that get it close to the pin will have an advantage. Yes, hitting greens is a chore, but getting them close to the pin is another battle on good iron play. I feel getting it close this week and having the best birdie tries will be very important.
Of course, when you miss a green, you will have to scramble to make your par. All 18 greens are well guarded with 50 bunkers, and you know that mistakes will be made, which puts many skills in getting it up and down from just off the greens. So our third category is strokes gained/around the green. This combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and bunkers around the greens will be complex.
Our last category is strokes gained/putting. Remember, the greens are big with some undulations, so they will be tricky in a different way. So good putters will have a fun week. So strokes gained/putting is an excellent way of determining how a player does overall on the greens, and putting will be a key to winning at Wilmington. I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Strokes gained/tee-to-green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green, so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to hole: Those that hit the fairway and hit it the closest to the hole.

*Strokes gained/around the green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes gained/putting: This is an excellent way of determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt, calculating the percentage the player should make the putt, and coming up with a stroke figure.

The 67 of the 68 players from this year’s field with stats from 2022 (no stats for Joohyung Kim).

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Link to stats for all  68 players

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $10,500
• Jon Rahm – $10,300
• Justin Thomas – $10,100
• Will Zalatoris – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,900
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,800
• Tony Finau – $9,700
• Xander Schauffele – $9,600
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,500
• Collin Morikawa – $9,400
• Sam Burns – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $9,200
• Sungjae Im – $9,100
• Joohyung Kim – $9,000

The good news for this week is no cut.  In a way, I will miss it since I have been solid in getting six players through 72 holes.  Still, last week I took a bath on Billy Horschel and Scott Stallings along with Rory, who was one of my main picks and didn’t make the cut.  The one disadvantage of not having a cut is that it brings more folks into the weekend, preventing you from climbing up the leaderboard.

I can’t see why Rory McIlroy is the top pick at $10,500.  Yes, he missed the cut last week in Memphis and didn’t play that badly.  I think he will contend this week, but his price is way too high, have to look for lower-price players.  The same with Jon Rahm at $10,300, I know he was T-5 last week, and that was after taking four weeks off to stay at home for the birth of his second child.  So he played well in Memphis and should play well this week. Still aren’t that interested in him because of the high price.  I do like Justin Thomas at $10,100, and I like him for the worst reason in the world, a hunch.  I am part of a very expensive pick-your-pro game, and I have been bitten by picking a player the wrong week, only to see him do great weeks after.  It started at the Sentry Tournament of Champions when I picked Hideki Matsuyama.  Unfortunately, he finished T-13 and won the next week at the Sony.  At Farmers Insurance, I picked Joaquin Niemann, and he finished T-6. But in his next start, he won the Genesis.  I picked Sam Burns at the Players, and he finished T-26th, his next start at Valspar, and he won.  I picked Jordan Spieth at the Masters, he missed the cut and won the next week at the Heritage.  I picked Scottie Scheffler at the PGA Championship, and he missed the cut, but the next week was runner-up at the Charles Schwab.  I picked Tony Finau at the Travelers, and he did OK, finishing T-13.  But a month later, Tony won back-to-back tournaments.  To end this saga, guess who I picked in Memphis?  Yes, Justin Thomas, who finished T-13, so we know what is going to happen this week.  Hey, on a more serious note, Thomas put a new driver from Titleist in Memphis in play and was impressed with it.  Driving is going to be important, and I feel that Thomas will be a better player with the new driver.  The big question is whether last week was a fluke, or is Will Zalatoris be worth the price of $10,000?  I think he will play great and contend.  Can he win, yes.  Defending champion Patrick Cantlay is $9,900 and, despite finishing T-57 in Memphis last week, feels he will be better this week.  Caves Valley is a lot like Wilmington Country Club from tee to green.  The big difference is the greens are a lot larger than Caves Valley and will be harder to putt.  So Wilmington C.C. will be good for Cantlay, look for another good week from a guy that had eight top-fives in 18 starts.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,800 is a hard choice.  He hasn’t played well since the U.S. Open and missed the cut last week.  Can he bounce back, yes but I don’t think he will be as strong the next two weeks as he has been earlier in the year.  So it will be a struggle getting over the finish line for him to win Player of the year this season.  Tony Finau at $9,700 is worth the money, he played well in Memphis and could have won.  So look for him to contend this week.  Xander Schauffele is $9,600, and he is my pick for next week at East Lake.  As for this week think Xander will be good this week and will be a good choice.  The same with Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,500, he has been the most solid player this year.  He has 19 starts this year and has been in the top ten, 10 times, so yes, he will be in contention this week.  Can’t say the same with Collin Morikawa at $9,400.  After a tough trip to Scotland, missing two cuts, he returned and was T-5th in Memphis, still, he isn’t putting that great, and think that will catch up with him this week.  Sam Burns at $9,300 is not worth the price, he has played ok, but when you spend $9,300, you are looking for someone to play a bit better, not just make the cut as he has done since finishing T-4th in Canada back in June.  Viktor Hovland at $9,200, and I continue to say no on him, other than his T-4th at the British has not been that sharp over the summer.  Sungjae Im at $9,100 is a good price for what you are getting a guy that finds a way to get that top-15 finish.  Joohyung Kim is $9,000 and has been worth the money, think he will continue to play well this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Cameron Young is $8,900, and if Will Zalatoris can win, so can Young, look for him to have a good week.  Joaquin Niemann at $8,600 is a good price for him, he loves long, tight courses and will do great this week.  One person to avoid big time is Hideki Matsuyama at $8,400, he has had back problems again and frankly, don’t think he can make it 72 holes.  Tyrrell Hatton is $8,200 and has played solidly not only of late but all year.  Look for him to get you a top-ten this week.  Adam Scott at $8,000 is a very good price, he played well last week in Memphis and should continue the good play.  Cam Davis at $7,600 is also good and worth the price.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the BMW Championship:

Remember this is a bombers type of course and with no cut, look for those that make a lot of birdies and hit it long, remember, no fear of missing the cut.  J.T. Poston at $7,300 probably doesn’t fit the bill as a long hitter that makes a lot of birdies, but he has played well of late and will make you points.  Maverick McNealy at $7,200 is one to think about, he is long off the tee and makes a lot of birdies, he is one of my bargain picks.  The same with Sepp Straka at $6,700, this course is good for him, and he played well last week.  Taylor Moore at $6,400 is another of those that will get you a lot of points and has played well, was T-5th at the Wyndham and T-6th at Rocket Mortgage.  One last player to look at is Lucas Glover at $6,100, he was great in Memphis last week, and I can see that carryover since he will be looking to try and get into the top 30.

Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the BMW Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Remember that very few have seen the course, and this tends to help those long-shot players. Lots of patience in learning the course also will take a lot of patience in which birdies will be the norm this week.  It’s a very enjoyable course, and the players will fall in love with it
• Emphasis must be made on making many birdies because those whose games are good will be able to score low.
• Length and the lack of accuracy will give bombers a significant advantage.  Still, we can’t say the course is a layup, it’s not.  For those that are too greedy and get in trouble, they can make bogeys and higher
• Sharp iron play will also help, along with some imagination when you do get in trouble.  The key is to be peaking about Wednesday, right before the start of the championship.
• Look for good lag putters to have a significant advantage because Wilmington greens are large and will be fast and give good putters a field day.