BlogTour Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So we have gotten to the last event of the 2021-22 season. Hard to believe the year has gone by so fast, and it’s been challenging for the players. LIV Golf has created a rift between players who took the money and leftover those who feel the PGA Tour is the best and most challenging tour. As for regulars on tour, this year was not as demanding as last year, which had an Olympics in Japan on the schedule, and the WGC event that was played in Memphis was dropped. As for the majors, we saw for the first time all the winners in their 20s. Going young is becoming a big deal on the PGA Tour. Of the 46 events during the season, 18 players in their 20s won 28 events. Of those in their 30s, 14 players won 18 events, but the really impressive stat is that only one player in the 40s won. Chez Reavie was 40 years, 8 months, and 5 days old when he won the Barracuda Championship. As a comparison, last year five players in their 40s won six events, and you also had Phil Mickelson win at 50 years old. Last year 18 players in their 20s won 22 events, so the trend is growing.

Another big deal is the number of Tour Championship rookies in the field this year. Nine of the 29 players have never played at East Lake, compared to only two rookies last year. A year ago, when the Tour started in Napa for the Fortinet Championship, who would have said that Tom Hoge, K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka, Sahith Theegala, and Cameron Young would have been in the field for this year’s Tour Championship?

In looking at the field for this year’s Tour Championship, it’s hard to spot any marquee players that didn’t make the field. Sure Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Jason Kokrak, Bryson DeChambeau, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Na, and Patrick Reed played in the Tour Championship last year and won’t be in the field this year due to playing on the LIV tour. But none of these players have made much of a splash in the first three LIV events, and frankly, other than Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and possibly Bryson DeChambeau, they are the only ones that will be missed.

So as we end this year, we look forward to next year and all of the changes that will be put into play. The biggest change will be the scheduling of the season. For 2023 the season begins in Napa for the Fortinet Championship, but the season won’t end at the Tour Championship. The plan right now is for only 70 players making the FedExCup Playoffs; the season will not end for those over that. The tour will not start in Napa next year but in Maui in January of 2024. So after the Tour Championship, there will still be fall golf, but it will end the 2023 season. So players over 70 in the FedExCup points list that won’t play in the playoffs will have to protect their postilion in fall events. For the top 50 players on the PGA Tour, they will have the opportunity to play in a series of international events. We are still waiting for the announcement of what that will be, news may come out in Wednesday’s press conference with Commissioner Jay Monahan. So after this week, there will be a lot of change on the PGA Tour for next year.

New format, that really isn’t new anymore

After the 2018 Tour Championship, the PGA Tour started a new format to combine the Tour Championship with the FedExCup points list. We explained it in our East Lake key fantasy stats. Still, the bottom line is that come Thursday, Scottie Scheffler, who leads the FedExCup points list, will begin the week at 10 under, with Patrick Cantlay at 8 under, (Will Zalatoris was supposed to start at 7 under before his WD) Xander Schauffele will start at 6 under, and Sam Burns at 5 under par. The next five (Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im) will begin at 4 under, regressing by one stroke per five players until those ranked Nos. 26-30 start at even par.

The format has created a lot of buzz, and players and fans like the new system. In a way, it’s like a team winning the first three games of the World Series. All they have to do is play well in the remaining games to win the World Series. But if they do what Justin Thomas did in 2019 and play poorly, they will be like the New York Yankees, who won the first three games of the 2004 American League Championship Series only to lose the next four games to the Boston Red Sox.

For those that have to start at one under or event par, it will be a hard task to cover ten shots over any player, but to do it at the same time, having to jump over 20 of the best players in the world is an impossible task, sure mathematically feasible but not realistic. The reward is very high, the winner this week will get $18 million. Second place pays off $6.5 million, with $5 million going to 3rd and $4 million going to 4th. The player in 10th place gets $1 million dollars so a lot will be at stake. The player in the 30th spot (which now is guaranteed to be Will Zalatoris) will get $500,000, so there will be a lot of money on the table. Once we get over the staggered start and get to the final round, it will seem like a regular tournament, but with the difference of $11.5 million between first and second, we could see one of the most expensive putts ever seen on the 72nd green.

What’s great about this format?

We have seen that the format created a lot of excitement and got rid of the confusion of trying to see who would win the FedExCup. Of course, Federal Express, which foots the bill, will get top billing and get more for their buck with this format. The hope is to elevate the FedExCup Playoffs and standings and crown just one champion on Sunday. More important, the PGA Tour has given the leading players a better chance at winning, but at the same time, didn’t forget that player like K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, and Aaron Wise, who starts on Thursday 10 shots back of Scottie Scheffler, if they put on a record four days of golf there is a possibility of winning the FedExCup Playoffs. So it’s just what the PGA Tour and Federal Express want, just one World Series or Super Bowl for golf to end the season and crown a FedExCup champion.

The importance of making it into the Tour Championship, why?

The PGA Tour has made getting into the top 30 a critical feat in the last couple of years.

Money isn’t the only prize for playing at the Tour Championship. Being in the top 30 brings on a lot of other great things. You get to play in any tournament you want to play in 2023 (except for the Sentry TofC), plus getting a pass to the World Golf Championships-Match Play and all four majors. They also get to play in invitationals, like the Genesis Invitational, Arnold Palmer Invitational, Charles Schwab, and the Memorial. Also, a top-30 will be invited to the CJ Cup in South Carolina and the Zozo Championship in October. Both events have a field of only 78, and last place money pays about $17,000. So you can see that, at the minimum, the importance of making it to East Lake. But for every winner, we can find others that came close but won’t get in.

An example of this was Sunday at the BMW Championship when J.J. Spaun made bogeys at 15 and the final hole to drop out of the top 30. Same thing with Trey Mullinax, who made bogey on 15 and then finished with four pars. Both of them were on the cusp of making it into the top 30, Stallings finished second, and Spaun finished 33rd. Joohyung Kim shot 74 in the third round and finished bogey-birdie-bogey to 34th on the FedExCup list. All three PGA Tour seasons are finished, for Kim, it was a disappointment, but since he is 19th in the World Ranking, it doesn’t matter, he will be in the majors next year because of his high rankings. But for Spaun, 97th in the rankings, and Mullinax, 130th, the miss is costly because their path to the majors became a lot tougher.

As for Shane Lowry, who will play in all the majors in 2023, his bogey at 17 could spell a lot of money loss. He finishes 31st in the FedExCup Playoffs and will receive $250,000. But his check could have been a lot more if he could have made it to Atlanta. Even if he went to Atlanta 30th on the list and finished 30th, he would have won $500,000. But a really great week, say he finished 15th, he would have gotten $760,000. One player who finished strong was Adam Scott. After the Wyndham Championship, Scott was 82nd on the points list. He lived another week when he finished T-5 at the FedEx St. Jude, finishing 46th in the rankings. With his T-5 at the BMW, he climbed to 29th and going to a course where he won the 2006 Tour Championship and has played well. In looking at the field for the Tour Championship, 26 of the 30 are inside the top 43 in the World Ranking, so they would have gotten invites to the majors for next year. But for Tom Hoge, who is 46th in the rankings, J.T. Poston, who is 56th, Sahith Theegala, who is 58th, and Scott Stallings, who is 61st, playing at East Lake will make next year a lot easier.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Course information:

• East Lake Golf Club
• Atlanta, Ga.
• 7,346 yards     Par 35-35–70

Tom Bendelow, around 1905, designed East Lake, and in 1913, Donald Ross completely reworked the course, and even though the layout is the same today, it was altered by George Cobb before the 1963 Ryder Cup matches.

East Lake has had a somewhat tumultuous existence. From its inception until the early 1960s, East Lake was one of the top courses in the entire country. It was Bobby Jones’s home golf course, he learned to play the game on this course. The Ryder Cup was held at East Lake in 1963. However, problems began to arise at the Atlanta Country Club as the area got seedy. Higher-income people started emigrating to the suburbs, leaving only lower-income households to inhabit the once-storied Country Club area. In the ’60s, the membership decided to abandon the site and move to Atlanta Athletic Club, with East Lake becoming a public course.

For the next 30 years, the golf course and the community itself floundered as the area became the most dangerous part of Atlanta. Police often referred to the site in the 70s & 80s surrounding East Lake as “Little Vietnam.”

In 1993, Tom Cousins, an esteemed real-estate developer and East Lake resident joined a charitable foundation to restore the East Lake Golf Club and the surrounding community to its previously leviathan stature. The two-phase plan included restoring all housing and overhauling the old golf course. Rees Jones was hired to do the restoration in 1994.

Jones revamped the grass, changed many tees, and completely changed the landscaping. Unfortunately, when Jones did all of the work, it wasn’t thought that the event would be played in September, weeks after the hot summer season. Everyone was caught by surprise in 2007 when the greens were stressed by a combination of drought and 28 days in August of heat over 90 degrees. With these conditions, there was not enough time for the bentgrass greens to adequately recover from Atlanta’s hottest summer on record amid a drought. And it was determined that in the best interest that the Crenshaw creep bentgrass would be replaced with Bermudagrass. In making the changes to the greens, Jones also changed some of the contours of the greens and created some roll-off areas on greens.

Also, the green on No. 7 was changed and pushed back 43 yards, extending the par-4 hole to 394 yards. The fairway and green on No. 17 were repositioned left, closer to East Lake’s shoreline, and new tees were added on No. 13, 15, and 16. New fairways bunkers were added on the left side of No. 3, 7, and 16 and to the right side of No. 15. Bunkers were reconfigured on the green at No. 16 and expanded on the right side of the green on No. 14 and the left side of No. 4 green. New hole locations were created on various greens, and low-cut, roll-off areas were installed off of greens on No. 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, and 17.

Today, the course plays as a 7,346 yard, par 70. It features Meyer Zoysia grass on both the tees and fairways, while the rough is Tifway Bermuda Grass. The greens are also Bermudagrass. Thus it can tolerate the hot days of August/September and be in great shape for this week.

The signature hole at East Lake is the Par 3, 15th. The hole plays at around 211 yards, but the downhill shot eliminates some of the distance. The tee was expanded, and if officials want, they can stretch the hole to 225 yards. The green itself provides the challenge of the hole. Golfers must attack a peninsula green with water left, right, and in front of the green and part of the backside. Adding to the difficulty is a small bunker on the front left and the green, making this an island green. Another change: the tee at 8 was expanded, and the hole can play to 470 yards even though the “official” yardage on the hole is 455. Since the 2019 Tour Championship, trees have been removed on 15, and a new tee makes that hole seem more significant.

In 2015 the course played to a 70.38 average and was the 17th hardest course on tour. For years the course played with a par 3 finish. The hole was very hard, and this created terrible finishes. So for 2016, the nines at East Lake were reversed as the PGA Tour was hoping to create a more exciting finish. They got that as the new par 5 18th hole began a lot more drama as the par 3, the ninth hole was, who in previous 15 years was the final hole. In 2016 Rory McIlroy birdied the 72nd hole to get into a playoff. It was the first time in the history of East Lake at the Tour Championship that the winner birdied the 72nd hole. That year the course played a lot easier, to a 69.61 average, and was the 27th hardest course on Tour. In 2017 the course played to a 69.38 average and was the 31st hardest course on tour. In 2018 it played to a 69.62 average and was the 24th hardest course on tour that year.  n 2019, East Lake played to a 70.03 average and was ranked 14th hardest course on tour. In 2020 East Lake played to a 68.92 average and was ranked 24th hardest course on tour. Last year the scoring average was 68.81, and was T-36th hardest course on tour.

Let’s look at important stats for those playing at East Lake this week.

This is based on the most vital stats from East Lake, based on data from last year’s Tour Championship and using data from all the players with stats from 2022.

This is a classic Tom Bendelow design that Donald Ross reworked, a course that favors the shot maker and one that hits lots of greens. The course was considered one of the best in America in the 20s and 30s, but things turned around with changes in the community in the 50s and 60s. The course held the 1963 Ryder Cup, and George Cobb made some changes. The club fell into some tough times in the 60s and 70s, with members deciding to move to a new site. With the move, the course became a public course and was in serious shape. It took Tom Cousins, an important real estate developer in Atlanta, to bring the course back from its low point. Ross Jones did the restoration in 1994, but the goal was to get it back to Donald Ross’s changes, which he did correctly.
The course is a gem because each hole is tree-lined, so you have to drive it reasonably straight. The most crucial aspect is hitting greens, in the 21 times the course has held the Tour Championship, only two champions have been out of the top-10 in greens hit (Bill Haas in 2011 and Tiger Woods in 2018), and eight of the winners including last year’s winner Patrick Cantlay led that stat. The greens are also hard to putt, and since most of the greens are built up, you miss a green, so scrambling becomes key. The bottom line is this isn’t a course for the power hitter, short hitters have as much chance of doing well as long hitters.

We have to spend a moment talking about the new format that went into effect in 2019. In previous years it seemed as if there were two events in one, which created confusion. In the 12 years of the FedExCup between 2007 and 2018, eight times the FedExCup winner and the Tour Championship winner were the same. When Xander Schauffele in 2017 and Tiger Woods in 2018 won the Tour Championship but didn’t win the FedExCup, it became noticed. Just the excitement of Tiger winning the Tour Championship drowned out any excitement of Justin Rose winning the FedExCup Playoffs. So the PGA Tour decided to try a new format for the 2019 Tour Championship. With the new format, the winner of the Tour Championship was also the winner of the FedExCup Playoffs. They did that by taking the points after the BMW Championship and giving the players a point advantage based on their finish to start the Tour Championship. The winner would start the Tour Championship at 10 under, the person second in the FedExCup standings would begin at 8 under, and the player in third starts the Tour Championship at 7 under par. They staggered the start in a way that if you are sixth in the FedExCup list, you started the Tour Championship at 4 under and worked down the list that those players between 26th and 30th on the points list started at even par, ten shots back of the leader of the FedExCup points race. So statically speaking, the person 30th in the FedExCup race could still win but to cover 10 shots and slip past 29 players is a tall order.

In 2019 the first year the format was used, Justin Thomas started at 10 under but was caught and passed by three other players. The winner was Rory McIlroy, who shot 267, which was 10 shots better than Thomas. So despite having a 5-shot lead over McIlroy, he only was 3 under par, so he finished 13 under par. McIlroy, who shot 13 under, started the week at 5 under, so he was 18 under. Xander Schauffele began the week at 4 under par, and with his 270 score was 14 under and took second. Brooks Koepka started the week at 7 under and, with his 274 total, ended at 13 under to T-3 with Thomas.
2020 was different as Dustin Johnson was the leader of the FedExCup and thus started out at 10 under. He shot 11 under 269 and won by three shots over Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Schauffele was remarkable as he started at 3 under but with his 265 total was able to take 2nd place, but he wasn’t good enough to catch Johnson. Last year Patrick Cantlay, who led the FedExCup point list, started the week at 10 under. He shot 269 (-11), and the score was T-4 for the week. Since he started the week at 10 under, with his 10 under reward finished at 21 under, a shot better than Jon Rahm, who started the week at 6 under, and with his 14 under performance for the week finished at 20 under and 2nd place. Kevin Na also shot 14 under par but started the week at 2 under, so his 16 under total got him third place. Xander Schauffele was 12 under for the week, but since he started at 2 under, finished at 14 under and was T-5. Cantlay was a bit lucky because Tony Finau, who started at 8 under shot even par, so his 8 under total finished T-11. The same with Bryson DeChambeau, who started the week at 7 under but shot a 6 under 274 to finish the week 13 under and seventh. So Cantlay wasn’t the best for the week but did do good enough and with some luck of those close to him at the start, was able to win.
When the new format came about, many people weren’t happy. Some said it was taking away from the Tour Championship, and no money was won. It was OK in the first year when Rory McIlroy not only won the tournament after making up the five shots over Justin Thomas, but he was the low score of 267. In 2020 Xander Schauffele was the low scorer at 265, but Dustin Johnson shot 269 to hold onto the tournament and become the first leader on Thursday morning to lead after 72 holes. Last year Jon Rahm and Kevin Na shot 266 but started too far back of Patrick Cantlay, who won by a shot.
After three years, everyone agrees that the new format is good and does bring out both the Tour Championship and the FedExCup race. Even playing on DraftKings, it’s weird that some players have an advantage, but that is reflected in the price of the player. One hint for those in DraftKings, look at the birdie average and par breakers list to help make picks.

So, in our four categories for this week, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick strokes gained/tee-to-green because putting the ball in play off the tee at East Lake is very important, probably one of the essential items on this Donald Ross course. Last year East Lake was 15th in driving accuracy. In looking at Patrick Cantlay, who won last year, he was second in strokes gained/tee-to-green, while he was T-10 (out of 30 players) in driving accuracy. The year before, the winner Dustin Johnson, was third in strokes gained/tee-to-green while he was 28th (out of 30 players) in driving accuracy. Rory McIlroy, who won in 2019, was first in strokes gained/tee-to-green, while he was T-3 in driving accuracy. The year before, Tiger Woods won, and he was T-3 in driving accuracy, and seventh in strokes gained/tee-to-green. Then getting the ball on the greens is essential, and we all know how hard it is to hit Donald Ross greens. Last year East Lake ranked 26th in greens in regulation, and Patrick Cantlay was T-1 in hitting greens. The previous year Dustin Johnson was T-5. The year before in 2019, McIlroy was T-5 in greens in regulation. In 2018 Tiger Woods won and was T-14 in greens in regulation, which was the worst finish in any East Lake champion stat. Still, it shows that anything can happen. That is why next up is scrambling because the greens are hard to hit when you miss the green, you have to get it up and down to win. Last year East Lake was ranked 33rd in scrambling, and in winning, Patrick Cantlay was 16th, getting it up and down 58.82%, 10 of 17 greens missed. In 2020 the winner, Dustin Johnson, was T-13, getting it up and down 14 of 22 times. In 2019, McIlroy was fifth as he got it up and down 68.18% of the time. The previous year Tiger was first in scrambling, getting it up and down 70.83% of the time.
Last and vital stat for those playing a Donald Ross golf course is putting, last year, the course ranked 46th on the PGA Tour. In strokes gained/putting, last year, Patrick Cantlay was 14th, in 2020, Johnson was 12th while in 2019 McIlroy was 11th, and in 2018 Tiger Woods was second.

One last thing, this week’s format will make it hard to judge who could win as half the field has been eliminated. But if Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele falter early, it will open up many more players’ chances and make the event very interesting. The one thing about this format, on paper, it looks great, and many think that we can put either Scottie Scheffler or Patrick Cantlay’s name on the trophy. But after seeing what happened to Justin Thomas in 2019, having the lead for 72 holes is a challenging proposition. Weather is also going to play a part as it’s going to rain on Wednesday with showers all four days. So, this poor forecast it will change the characteristics of East Lake. With the course soft in which more players hit fairways and greens, it opens up the possibilities for those that aren’t great shotmakers to win.

*Strokes gained/tee-to-green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then gets the ball on the green, so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Greens in regulation: Players that hit the most greens in regulation

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes gained/putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

Of the 30 players in the field, 30 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to the 30 players

DraftKings tips

The field is only 30, and with staggered to-par totals, it’s going to make Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele very popular picks.  But in DraftKings, making birdies and eagles, plus playing low, plays an essential role in earning points.  So here is a cheat sheet to help you find a player with the most production value this week.

First up is birdie’s average

As you can see, Cameron Smith is first, Scottie Scheffler is 2nd, and Patrick Cantlay is third.

But we need to find a player that is more manageable cost-wise.  Cameron Young is 6th and costs $9,000.  Viktor Hovland is 8th and costs $8,500.  Hideki Matsuyama is 14th and costs $8,100.  Joaquin Niemann is 16th and is $8,300.

Our second stat is Par Breakers

The same problem exists, Cameron Smith is 1st, Scottie Scheffler is 2nd, Just Thomas is 3rd, Patrick Cantlay is 5th and Rory McIlroy is 5th.  All of these players are very expensive, so we have to look for players with a better price.  Cameron Young is 6th and is $9,000.  Viktor Hovland is 8th on the Par Breaker list and only $8,500.  Now there are some cheap players that are high in Par Breakers, Jordan Spieth is 21st and costs $7,800.  Aaron Wise is 23rd and cost just $5,400.  Adam Scott is 25th and cost only $6,600

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $13,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $13,000
• Xander Schauffele – $12,300
• Jon Rahm – $10,900
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Cameron Smith – $10,400
• Sam Burns – $9,900
• Tony Finau – $9,600
• Justin Thomas – $9,400

Just remember this week is not an ordinary PGA Tour event.  There are only 30 players in the field, and with Scottie Scheffler starting at 10-under it’s supposed to give him an advantage for leading the FedExCup rankings.  So that is why figures seem out of wack as the top three players are over $12,000, while on the other side, there are eight players under $7,000.  But before you get suckered in on picking one of those over $12,000, remember this. If you pick Scheffler at $13,600, that leaves you $36,400 to make five other picks or an average of $7,280.  Most of the eight players under $7,000 are not worth considering.  So think about who has the most firepower, who makes the most birdies and eagles, those are the players that will give you the most points.  Another thing to remember, yes, winning is important because you gain 30 points.  But let’s say you take Scheffler at $13,600, and he wins but has very little offense of making birdies and eagles, that 30 points honestly means very little.  Try to find that person who has the best shot at making eagles, which earns 8 points.  Looking at East Lake’s history, in the last seven years, going back to 2015, 50 eagles have been made by those in the field this year, here is the list of those that have made the most eagles:

• Xander Schauffele – 4
• Justin Thomas – 3
• Rory McIlroy – 2
• Jon Rahm – 2
• Adam Scott – 1
• Hideki Matsuyama – 1
• Jordan Spieth – 1
• Tony Finau – 1
• Viktor Hovland – 1

Now making birdies is also important, a birdie gets you 3 points, so if you make 20 birdies, that’s 60 points.  Since 2015 at East Lake, 3,007 birdies have been made, with the most being Rory McIlroy with 115.  Next best is Hideki Matsuyama with 106, Justin Thomas with 103, Xander Schauffele with 85, and Jon Rahm with 81.  Now, what about Scottie Scheffler, who has played twice at East Lake and made 31 birdies (15.5 per event).  Also, Patrick Cantlay, has only played in four Tour Championships and made 51 birdies, so that is a 12.75 per event average.

Here are some others to think about:

• Tony Finau, with 78 birdies in 5 starts
• Jordan Spieth, with 63 birdies in 4 starts
• Cameron Smith, with 50 birdies in 3 starts
• Sungjae Im, with 49 birdies in 3 starts
• Billy Horschel, with 48 birdies in 3 starts
• Adam Scott, with 35 birdies in 2 starts
• Collin Morikawa, with 35 birdies in 2 starts

So let’s get down to the chase on all this for Draftkings, I cannot endorse Scottie Scheffler at $13,600.  Sure he has a big advantage to start, he was T-3rd at the BMW Championship but at the end of the day just think it’s too much of an ask for him to play well this week.   just don’t think he is playing well enough to keep it going.  Now Patrick Cantlay at $13,000 is a tough choice, he won this last year after winning the BMW Championship.  He won the BMW Championship last week, and he is 4th in Par Breakers, yes can say he is a good bet but a lot of money.  Now we are only going to get one pick in these high price ranges, and I will use my pick on Xander Schauffele at $12,300.  His record at East Lake is impeccable, in five starts, he has a win, two runner-ups, and the worst being a T-7th.  Xander is not a birdie machine like Scheffler and Cantlay, but he is no slouch, ranking 7th in Par Breakers.  He has done so much good at East Lake you can’t go wrong with him, and his game has been great, with three wins in his last ten starts.  Yes, he is worth the money.  Jon Rahm at $10,900 is also a no, I realize he was 4th at East Lake in 2020 and 2nd last year, again his year hasn’t been that great, and I can’t see him doing well.  Rory McIlroy at $10,800, I have mixed emotions, he has two wins at East Lake but was T-14th last year.  Despite him making a lot of eagles and birdies, his game hasn’t been sharp after the disappointing British Open finish.  He missed the cut at the FedEx St. Jude and was T-8th last week, hate to say it but with him starting at 4 under, six back just think he will be out of it if he doesn’t get red hot early.  The same with Cameron Smith at $10,400, he has never played well at East Lake and admitted to having a tough time playing in wet conditions, and it’s supposed to rain a lot at East Lake, so take a pass on him.  Sam Burns at $9,900 is not a tough call, he hasn’t played well since the Canadian Open in June so take a pass on him.  Tony Finau at $9,600 is priced right and is the hottest player in the field, but despite all that, he in the past, hasn’t played well at East Lake.  Now I can see Justin Thomas at $9,400 being a great pick, his record is solid at East Lake with six top-seven finishes in six starts.  Think he is looking for a little redemption from what happened in 2019, and despite playing badly at the end of the BMW Championship think he is ready to play well again.

*Players in that $7,000 to $9,100 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I really like Cameron Young at $9,000, yes he has never played at East Lake, but there have been a lot of places he never played before, like at the Genesis, and he finished T-2nd, at the Heritage, and he finished T-3rd, at the Wells Fargo were he finished T2nd, the PGA Championship were he finished T-3rd and the British Open at St. Andrews, and he finished 2nd.  Yes, think Young is a good bet.   Viktor Hovland at $8,500 could be a good bet, he was T-5th at East Lake last year.  Also, like Hideki Matsuyama at $8,100, yes, his back has been barking most of the summer, but he makes a lot of birdies and has three top-ten finishes at East Lake.  Jordan Spieth at $7,800 is a very good pick this week, he won at East Lake in 2015 and liked that he finished T-19th last week at BMW.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Tour Championship, those under $7,000

Billy Horschel at $6,900, he has a good record at East Lake, including a win in 2014, and is 58th in Par Breakers this year. Also, like Sahith Theegala at $6,700, he has had a solid year and has played well in the playoffs, he also is in the top third in birdied and par breakers for the year. By best longshot pick has to be Adam Scott at $6,600.  Can’t see with his great record at East Lake, including a win in 2006, and his good play of late, him being so cheap, jump all over that.  Also, like Aaron Wise at $5,400, he has experience playing at East Lake, but like that, he is 23rd in Par Breakers

Here are some of the secrets to playing well at East Lake:

The key stat for the winner:

• Let’s be frank on this, of the 30 players in the field, only about 8 of them have a chance of winning.  If your at 4 under, you have a chance of winning if you play well.  But even those guys have a long uphill slush as they need to go low.  So frankly, I see this as a three-man race between Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele.  These players have done great things in 2022, and I can see them doing well.  But at the same time, we must be cautious with Scheffler and Zalatoris because there is a good chance they fold, and if that happens, it lets a lot of players in.  It brings Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, and Tony Finau into play if that happens.  I also feel you need to watch Xander Schauffele because of his great record in this event.  That’s a lot of shots to make up, but if the leaders stumble, anything could happen.  Both Scheffler and Cantlay play well on the course.  Remember this, in 2020, Schauffele started at 3 under par and worked his way up to finishing T-2nd.  Even last year, Schauffele started at 2 under par and worked his way up to finish T-5th, so anything is possible.
• As was proven in past Tour Championships played at East Lake, it favors those that hit lots of greens.  Just look at the 21 winners of previous Tour Championships at East Lake. Hal Sutton in 1998 was 1st while in 2000 Phil Mickelson was T4th in greens hit, Vijay Singh was T8th in 2002, Retief Goosen was first in 2004 and Bart Bryant first in 2005, Adam Scott was T6th in 2006 while in 2007 Tiger Woods led, in 2008 Camilo Villegas was T3rd while in 2009 Phil Mickelson was T8th.  in 2010 Jim Furyk led the greens hit, but Bill Haas slacked off to T-11th in ’11, Brandt Snedeker was T-7th in 2012. In 2013 Henrik Stenson proved the importance of hitting greens as he led that stat, the same in 2014 with Billy Horschel.  In 2015 Jordan Speith was T-9th in greens hit, while in 2016, Rory McIlroy was 2nd in greens hit.  In 2017 Xander Schauffele was 2nd, hitting 56 of the 72 greens.  Now Tiger Woods in 2018 went against the grain when he hit only 48 greens and ranked T-14th. But as you can see, hitting greens are essential because if you miss a green at East Lake, it will be challenging to get up and down for par.  In 2019 Rory McIlroy hit 50 of the 72 greens and ranked T-5th, while Dustin Johnson in 2020 hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th.  Last year Patrick Cantlay hit 55 of 72 greens to rank T-1st, showing that those that hit greens tend to do well on this course.
• Another key is holding the lead going into the final round.  Since 1987, the player who either led or had a share of the lead through 54 holes has gone on to win 20 out of 23 times – Tom Watson (1987), Curtis Strange (’88), Jodie Mudd (’90), Craig Stadler (’91), Paul Azinger (’92), Billy Mayfair (’95), Tom Lehman (’96), David Duval (’97), Tiger Woods (’99), Vijay Singh (2002), Chad Campbell in 2003, Bart Bryant in 2005, Adam Scott in 2006, Tiger Woods in 2007, Jim Furyk in 2010, Brandt Snedeker in 2012, Henrik Stenson in 2013, Billy Horschel in 2014 and Jordan Spieth in 2015.

Check it out at GolfStats.Com.  

• 2016 winner Rory McIlroy broke the streak as he was T-3rd, 4 shots back, and shot a final round 64 to tie for the lead before winning in a playoff.  In 2017 Xander Schauffele was T-2nd, 2 shots back, and shot a final round 68 to win by a shot, while Tiger was co-leader in 2018.  In 2019 Rory McIlroy went into the final round T-2nd and won, the same with Dustin Johnson, who shot 64 on Sunday to win.  Last year Patrick Cantlay led by two going into the final round.
• Experience and having a good year, especially coming into the event, is also a factor. Just look at the winners over the years.  Patrick Cantlay last year, Dustin Johnson in 2020, Rory McIlroy in 2019 and in 2016, Tiger Woods in 2018, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Henrik Stenson in 2013, Brandt Snedeker in 2012, Jim Furyk in 2010, Phil Mickelson the year before, Tiger Woods in 2007, Adam Scott the year before that.  Bart Bryant in 2005 and Retief Goosen in 2004 were examples of this. Scott finished either 2nd or 3rd six times going into the event, Bryant had won the Memorial early in the year while Goosen won the U.S. Open and then capped off with the Tour Championship.  All of them won, capping off great years, so I feel that this year’s winner will be one of the top four, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. They have all had great seasons and could carry it on this week.
• One last thing to look for. Yes, the course is demanding, but as it goes into the year being played for the 22nd time and the 19th year in a row as the host course, the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores.  Yes, it’s going to take four rounds in the 60s to win, but other than Bart Bryant’s brilliant 17 under-par performance in 2005 and Tiger Woods’s 23 under performance in 2007, it’s rarely been taken apart.  Look for that trend to get broken this year because those players way behind will have to go low and will be looking to go low.
• Lastly, the weather in Atlanta.  It’s going to be wet from Wednesday through Sunday, hopefully, with a small field, they will be able to get through with little delays.