BlogBMW PGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So the PGA Tour is off for two weeks and returns next week in Napa for the Fortinet Championship.  Now, this doesn’t mean we will be missing any good golf, this week the focus will be on the DP World Golf Tour and the BMW PGA Championship.  This is the main championship of the European Tour, the equivalent to the PGA Tour’s Players Championship.  This event has been on the Tour as long as there has been a European Tour, going back to 1972.  For years it rotated around the best courses in England, being played at Wentworth, Royal St. George’s, Royal Birkdale, and St. Andrews, until 1984 when it settled to its permanent home, Wentworth.

Wentworth Club is best known for its associations with professional golf. It has three eighteen-hole courses: the famous Harry Colt-designed West Course from 1926, the earlier yet lesser-played East Course, which was also designed by Colt in 1924, and the recent Edinburgh Course designed by John Jacobs, and a nine-hole par-3 executive course.  The headquarters of the PGA European Tour is located at the club, and each year it hosts the Tour’s PGA Championship. It was the venue of the 1953 Ryder Cup and of the World Match Play Championship from 1964 until 2007.

The club is surrounded by and entwined with the Wentworth Estate, one of the most expensive private estates in the London suburbs, which was built at the same time where many top golfers and other celebrities have homes. One of them is Ernie Els, who became the club’s “worldwide touring professional” in 2005. Over the winter of 2008-09, Els, who was developing a golf course design practice, made alterations to the West Course, lengthening it by 310 yards and adding 30 bunkers.  The changes weren’t well received.  In 2017 the changes were redone to soften the changes and since people like the course.

This is the most prestigious event on the DP World Tour.  It’s played on a classic old course Wentworth, about 20 miles west of London.  Over the years, it’s had a tough time getting a top-notch field as some European Tour members took passes to play on the PGA Tour instead of its tour’s premiere events. Making it easier for marquee names to play in this event, in 2019, it was moved from May to September, but that hasn’t helped, some of the top-notch players who began their careers in Europe passed on it.

This year things are different

For many different reasons, this event hasn’t been able to get a lot of marquee names.  But because of the PGA Tour schedule and the fact that LIV Golf players have limited playing opportunities away from LIV Golf, this year’s BMW PGA has one of its best fields.  It’s gotten 14 top-50 players, including top-ten Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Viktor Hovland.  For McIlroy and Rahm, it’s the first time they are playing at Wentworth since 2019.  For Sergio Garcia, it’s the first time he has been playing since 2014.  Even McIlroy is sticking around and will play in Italy next week.  Another windfall for this event is that 17 players from the LIV Golf tour are playing at Wentworth.  Some LIV players who have played well at Wentworth include Patrick Reed, who was T-4th in 2019 and T-3rd in 2020.  Last year’s runner-up Laurie Canter, who now plays on the LIV Tour, is back this year.  Same with Lee Westwood, who has played in 28 straight BMW PGA’s and returns for the 29th straight year.  He was runner-up at Wentworth in 2000 and 2011.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,100
• Jon Rahm – $10,900
• Shane Lowry – $10,600
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,200
• Billy Horschel – $10,000
• Adam Scott – $9,800
• Viktor Hovland – $9,600
• Talor Gooch – $9,400
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,300
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Patrick Reed – $8,900

Great to play DraftKings this week.  I will say this, I make more money with my European Tour picks over PGA Tour because there aren’t as many savvy people that play in European Tour games.  So take advantage that the competition is not as good as it is on the PGA Tour.  Like anything else, always be leery of these high price guns.  A perfect example is Jon Rahm at $10,900.  Rahm hasn’t won in over a year since the U.S. Open, and despite a good year finishing 15th in the FedEx Cup, he may not be playing well enough to justify the $10,900 price tag.  So again, be careful; Rahm’s price is very dear, and you have to get a top-three to make it worthwhile.  Same with Shane Lowry at $10,200.  He has played well, but not great.  Since finishing T-9th at the Irish Open at the start of July, he only has one top-20 finish in four starts.  So be careful.

Off the bat, Rory McIlroy is $11,100, a high price but one worth it for Rory when you realize that he has won at Wentworth and was 2nd in his last starts at Wentworth in 2018 and T-9th in 2019.  He won the Tour Championship and the FedExCup and has played well this summer, so despite the high cost is worth the money.  Can’t say the same for Jon Rahm at $10,900.  I realize that in one start at Wentworth was 2nd, but that was in 2019.  His play this year was a notch below how he played last year, he will finish in the top-20, but at the cost is not worth the gamble.  Shane Lowry at $10,600 is also a no because of his high cost.  He has played regularly in this event for the last 12 years, was 2nd in 2014, and has eight top-15 finishes, but in his last start, he was T-17th at Wentworth and on the PGA Tour hasn’t been in the top-ten since the Irish Open.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,200, is in the same boat as Lowry, yes he has had good finishes at Wentworth, including a T-7th in 2020, and was T-20th last year.  But his game has been mixed since winning the U.S. Open, he was T-5th at the FedEx St. Jude and T-15th at the Tour Championship.  Sorry, don’t think it’s worth the high cost.  Defending champion Billy Horschel is $10,000, but since winning the Memorial, his best finish in his last eight starts was T-21st at the Tour Championship.  Adam Scott is $9,800, which is too much for a guy who in six Wentworth starts, his best finish is T-11th.  On the PGA Tour, he was T-5th at the FedEx St. Jude and BMW but 25th at East Lake.  Also not a fan of Viktor Hovland at $9,600, he was T-49th last year at Wentworth, and other than a T-4th at the British Open has not been very impressive since the Florida swing.  Sorry but another no for me with Talor Gooch at $9,400.  He has not played at Wentworth, and he didn’t play well in the Llv Golf Boston event after leading, finishing with a 69 to end the week 6th.  At this point, you are probably wondering, is there anyone he likes?  Yes, I like Tyrrell Hatton at $9,300, he won at Wentworth in 2020.  He didn’t play great in the FedEx Cup playoffs but was T-8th at Wyndham and T-11th at the British.  I have mixed emotions over Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100.  Was T-12th last year at Wentworth, but after finishing T-4th at the Scottish Open and British Open fell off the face of the golfing world.  That is because his Mom was sick and passed away, which is why he was not playing.  Will he be ready now, I think he will be.  I also like Patrick Reed at $8,900.  He was T-4th at Wentworth in 2019 and T-3rd in 2020.  He was T-31st at Boston but finished with a 66, so I think he will be fine.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I like Abraham Ancer at $8,700, he hasn’t played at Wentworth and was 8th in the LIV event in Boston.  But I feel that Wentworth will suit his game.  Thomas Pieters at $8,500 is also a thought, he was T-9th last year at Wentworth and for the year has been solid, including a 2nd at the BMW International and T-8th at the Czech Masters.  Lee Westwood at $8,100, is also a person worth the cost, he has played in the last 28 BMW PGA and was runner-up twice.  Like that, he finished with a 62 in the final round of the LIV golf Boston, finishing T-4th.  Danny Willett at $7,900, is also a person to watch, he won at Wentworth in 2019.  Even though he has had an up and down summer, he was T-7th at the 3M Open and T-9th two weeks ago in Switzerland.  Eddie Pepperell is also a good buy at $7,800.  He has played ok at Wentworth, was 6th in 2020, and over the summer has been steady, including a 2nd at the Hero Open.  Adrian Meronk at $7,700 is also a choice, yes he missed the cut in his only Wentworth start, but he won in Ireland and is 2nd in birdies per round. Also, like Ewen Ferguson at $7,600, never played before at Wentworth but think he will be fine.  Of late was 2nd at the Made in Himmerland and won the Handa World Invitational

Any bargains out there?

This week it’s hard to find any bargains.  I am looking for someone who can make a lot of birdies and make the cut.  One person that comes out of left field is Thriston Lawrence at $7,400.  He won in Switzerland two weeks ago, has been steady, and is 7th on the European Tour in making birdies.  Kurt Kitayama at $7,400, is also a person to watch.  After finishing 2nd in the Scottish Open, played ok on the PGA Tour, finishing T-19th at the BMW Championship.  Victor Perez at $7,300, is a player that can do anything.  He may have finished T-49th at Wentworth last year but was 2nd in 2020.  The same for the year, but he won the Dutch Open and was T-3rd at the Porsche European Open.  Marcus Helligkilde, at $7,200, is a player not many have heard of in America, but he is having a great year on the DP World Tour.  He was T-8th last week at the Made in Himmerland and T-4th at the Handa World in Ireland.  Also like Pablo Larrazabal at $7,000.  He has had his up and downs at Wentworth and the same on the European Tour.  Yes missed the cut at Made in Himmerland, but he won in South Africa and Spain early in the year and leads the European Tour in birdie average.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the BMW PGA Championship.

The key stat for the winner:

• Wentworth is a classic shotmaker course, that is why those that hit lots of greens like Luke Donald have done well at Wentworth.  Having a short game is also important because for those that miss the greens, getting it up and down is tough as there are a lot of bumps and knolls around these greens.  But the key to playing well is to hit lots of greens like 2016 winner Chris Wood who was T-4th in greens hit.  Even better is what Byeong-Hun An did in 2015, he only missed 11 greens all week, leading the field in greens hit.  To show how important it is to hit greens, going back to 2009, all of the champions but Rory McIlroy were in the top ten of greens hit. In 2020 Tyrell Hatton was T-25th, which isn’t bad, last years winner Billy Horschel hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field.
• Since major work was done on Wentworth in 2011, the par 4s are really tough, some of the hardest on the European Tour, with five of the 12 playing over 449 yards.  In the last five years, 98% of those that made the cut have played the par 4s in 5.8 over par, so you can see how Luke Donald won in 2012 when he played the 4s in 3 under, Matteo Manassero was 1 over in his ’13 win, Rory McIlroy played the par 4s in 1 under in 2014, Byeong-Hun An was 3 under on the par 4s in 2015, and Chris Wood was 2 under on them in 2016. In 2020 the winner Tyrrell Hatton was 2 under and Billy Horschel won last year playing the par 4s in 9 under.
• On top of new greens that went in before the 2017 event, many other things have been done to Wentworth.  29 bunkers were completely removed as every bunker on the course was redesigned and rebuilt.  So now it’s a lot tougher if you hit it into one of them.  Hopefully, with these changes and the ones a couple of years ago, it will be more appealing to the players.

The weather is not the greatest of news, looks like each day will have its share of rain, with temperatures each day around 70 degrees.