BlogSanderson Farms Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Another Tour event that doesn’t have many marquee names, but it’s a great chance to see again the talent of those that recently got their PGA Tour card.  This year, 55 of the top players from the Korn Ferry Tour finals are in the field.  So the chances are one in three that a Korn Ferry graduate will win this week.  Five Mississippians are in the field, including Davis Riley and PGA Tour winner Chad Ramey of Fulton, Mississippi. Ramey won the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship earlier this year… Six of the past nine winners in Mississippi were first-time PGA Tour winners

Sam Burns and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are the lone Presidents Cup participant that is playing in Mississippi.

Look for a possible marquee winner?  You have six major winners in the field, Keegan Bradley, Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Lucas Glover, Jimmy Walker, and Gary Woodland. So there are some marquee names in the field, just don’t think they have a win in them this week.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Here is some tournament and course information:

This event has been played in Mississippi since 1968.  In the beginning, it was an unofficial event and became an official event on the PGA Tour in 1986.  In its first year and until 1993, it played opposite to the Masters.  It was called the Deposit Guaranty and was played at Hattiesburg C.C. in Hattiesburg, Miss.  Not only did the date change to July and opposite the British Open, but in 1994, the event moved to Madison, Miss, and the Annandale Country Club.  It again was moved in the schedule in 1999 when it was opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup, and the Presidents Cup.  In 2011 it switched back to July and the same week as the British Open, with Sanderson Farms taking over in 2013.  Not only did the date change, but the course was different for the first time in 20 years as it moved to The Country Club of Jackson.

The course wasn’t the whole reason for the change, Unlike Annandale, the country club offers more than 120,000 square feet of roofed infrastructure for hospitality which means more money will be donated to charity.  The course is also terrific and has gone through a lot of changes.  The biggest change is the fairways have been narrowed and a second cut added with the rough being allowed to grow in.

The course is a John Fought design that features “Golden Age” architectural features with pushed-up greens and closely mown run-off areas. If the course stays dry, the greens will be treacherous and could make things interesting.

The site had an interesting history because it was better known in Mississippi, not for golf, but in 1966 it was the site of a famous raid that caused liquor to be legalized in the state.  So the Country Club of Jackson will this week be remembered as the site that changed the last dry state in the United States instead of for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sanderson Farms Championship:

This event is always up for grabs, not many players have any history at Country Club of Jackson, so it’s always hard to pick this event.  But we learned a lot in the last eight years it’s been played there, first, that hitting greens is important. C.C. of Jackson ranked 37th hardest last year in hitting greens while it was the 45th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 69.87 scoring average.

Of the 31 that finished in the top-ten the last three years at Country Club of Jackson, 11 of them were in the top-ten in greens hit, with last year’s winner Sam Burns finishing T-1st. In 2021 the winner Sergio Garcia also finish T-1st in greens hit.  So the point is, you have to hit lots of greens.

On the face of it, we’re looking at a pretty long golf course, with the par-five fifth hole able to stretch to 612 yards before the difficult-looking sixth at close to 500 (482). Holes 14 and 15 would look to offer up birdie opportunities before a tough closing stretch, in which the finishing hole is a 505-yard, par 4.  Oh, for the record, there is no let-up on the par-4s, only one on the 16th is under 400 yards, so maybe a power hitter is a player to look for.  The par 5s played tough last year as they were the 31st hardest par 5s on the PGA Tour with a 4.63 scoring average.

This is also one of those courses that you have to hit it long and straight.  Last year it ranked 35th in driving distance, but in 2016, it was 1st, and in 2015, it was 10th.  But in looking at our eighth winners at C.C. of Jackson, the first four champions were mostly short hitters, but the last four winners hit it long, so the course has in a way changed to a bombers course.  Look for long-hitters to do very well this week.

The average winning score from the last eight years has been a notch below 19 under. So going low will be a premium in Mississippi.

The weather is going to be mixed for the players as we don’t know if hurricane Ian will change course and move up Mississippi.  But as of right now, the forecast is for mostly sunny conditions, but temperatures will be in the mid-60s all week.  Winds will be low so look for low scoring like what happened last year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Country Club of Jackson.

This is based on the most vital stats from Country Club of Jackson, data from last year’s Sanderson Farms, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
Last year was the eight-year that C.C. of Jackson has been the home of the Sanderson Farms. In looking at the stats from the winners of those events going back to 2013, the only thing that is striking is how every champion does well in Greens hit. Eight of the nine champions were in the top ten in that stat, and the last two winners, Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns, led the field in Greens Hit. Another stat that jumps at you is the number of birdies made; of course, you need to make many to win.

The par 72 track is not very demanding on the PGA Tour. Last year under perfect conditions, the course played to a 69.87 average, more than two shots under par per round. It ranked 45th out of 50 courses, and only two full-field events played over four days played easier, so going low on the course is very important. The other big question is, does the course favor long hitters, is it a bombers’ paradise? It’s not a haven for long hitters, but in the last four years, the champions have been long off the tee, so this is something to watch and consider. Finesse around the greens aren’t hard, the course ranks 41st out of 50 courses in scrambling so that stat is not vital in the scheme of things. So what is the prototype for winning the Sanderson Farms?

In our four categories, we have picked four needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Green, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens. Last year the average drive was 304.4 yards for measured drives and ranked 35th, meaning that only 15 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 12th with 54.89% of the drives in the fairway, meaning that you can’t be wild and win at C.C. of Jackson. Looking at last year’s winner Sam Burns, he ranked 17th in driving distance and T-8th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2021, winner Sergio Garcia ranked 9th in driving distance and T-14th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. As for 2020 winner Sebastian Munoz, he ranked 3rd in Driving Distance and T-36th in Accuracy, so he ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. So we can see a trend for the last three champions in which driving is important at Sanderson Farms.
Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course where greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation, so C.C. of Jackson was ranked 37th on Tour with 70.36% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner, Burns, hit 63 of 72 greens last year for 87.50%, ranking 1st. In 2021 Garcia hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, ranking T-1st. In 2020, winner Munoz hit 57 of 72 for 79.17%, which ranked T-9th.
Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting which is an integral part of the game. Last year the putting average at C.C. of Jackson was 1.712 as the course ranked 44th, meaning that the course overall is easy to make putts on. It averaged 28.42 putts per round, ranking it 37th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked T-21st. As for last year’s winner Burns, he took 115 putts which ranked T-52nd, and in Strokes Gained Putting, was ranked 57th, showing that ball striking was more important than putting. In 2021 Garcia took 115 putts, ranking T-42nd, and Strokes Gained Putting was 28th. In putts inside ten feet, he ranked T-36th, making 65 of 74 putts. In 2020 Munoz took 112 putts which ranked T-14th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 5th. In the critical putts made inside 10 feet, Munoz made 63 of 70 and ranked T-16th.
The last category is Par Breakers. 1,846 birdies were made on the course, with only three other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 47 eagles, which ranked 40th. Last year’s winner, Sam Burns, made 26 birdies, ranked 2nd, and didn’t make an eagle. So Burns was 2nd in Par Breaker. In 2021 Sergio Garcia made 22 birdies, ranked T-2nd, and made one eagle. So Garcia was T-2nd in Par Breaker. In 2020 Munoz made 21 birdies and no eagles as he was T-6th in Par Breakers.
So we can see this week’s trend: hit fairways, greens, and make a lot of birdies.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee, and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 144 players in the field, 81 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2022.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to see all of the stats from the Sanderson Farms

DraftKings tips

First let’s look at the field and the top 20 who have the best average Draftkings earnings since the start of the 2022 season

• 99.0 points per event – Byeong Hun An in three events
• 85.2 points per event – Matti Schmid in three events
• 80.8 points per event – Thomas Detry in six events
• 76.2 points per event – Sam Burns in 24 events
• 73.0 points per event – Taylor Montgomery in three events
• 71.7 points per event – Russell Henley in 22 events
• 67.9 points per event – Mark Hubbard in 22 events
• 67.6 points per event – Sahith Theegala in 22 events
• 65.8 points per event – Keegan Bradley in 25 events
• 65.5 points per event – Seamus Power in 26 events
• 64.8 points per event – Chris Kirk in 26 events
• 64.5 points per event – Davis Riley in 30 events
• 63.9 points per event – Adam Hadwin in 26 events
• 63.1 points per event – Christiaan Bezuidenhout in 24 events
• 62.5 points per event – Brendon Todd in 26 events
• 62.4 points per event – Denny McCarthy in 29 events
• 61.8 points per event – Justin Lower in 25 events
• 60.8 points per event – Taylor Moore in 29 events
• 60.7 points per event – Wyndham Clark in 31 events
• 60.3 points per event – Aaron Rai in 27 events

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Sam Burns – $10,700
• Sahith Theegala – $10,400
• J.T. Poston – $10,200
• Russell Henley – $10,100
• Denny McCarthy – $9,900
• Taylor Montgomery – $9,600
• Scott Stallings – $9,500
• Keegan Bradley – $9,400
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout – $9,300
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,200
• Davis Riley – $9,000

So like in Napa two weeks ago, the person you least expect to win will be the winner.So we have to find the next Max Homa.  Could Sam Burns at $11,700 pull a Homa and win back-to-back Sanderson Farms titles?  I doubt it and a matter of fact I want no part of him.  The big difference, Homa had a couple of weeks off going into Napa, Burns just played in five matches at the Presidents Cup and didn’t have a win with two halve matches and three losses.  So I really feel he will be tired this week so best to pass on him.  For Sahith Theegala at $10,400 I like him, he was T-8th last year and was T-6th in Napa a couple of weeks ago.  He earns a lot of DraftKings points, averaging 67.6 per event since the start of the 2022 season.  J.T. Poston at $10,200 is also a player to watch, yes he missed the cut last year at the Sanderson Farms, but was 3rd in 2021 and he has the stats to do well.  Russell Henley at $10,100 is also worth the price, he has played ok in this event but I like his 2022 stats and how it sets him up for this course.  Also have to like that he averages 71.7 Draftkings points per event, so he has all of the tools to have a great week.  Denny McCarthy at $9,900 is priced high, but he has a good record at C.C. of Jackson and does rank high with a 62.4 Draftkings points per event.  Sorry it’s a big no for Taylor Montgomery at $9,600, the price is too high for a player with his record.  Mixed feelings on Scott Stallings at $9,500, the price is too high and even though his record is ok at C.C. of Jackson and he won at Annandale but he is very inconsistent.  On the opposite scale, Keegan Bradley at $9,400 is a person to consider.  Yes he missed the cut last year at C.C. of Jackson, but in 2021 he was T-4th and he does make a lot of cuts and averages 65.8 Draftkings points per event.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $9,300 is a no, not only is he coming off the Presidents Cup but also just don’t think his game is good for him at C.C. of Jackson.  Emiliano Grillo at $9,200 is a yes, even though his price his high.  As of Davis Riley at $9,000, he is a no because he just hasn’t played well at C.C. of Jackson missing his last two cuts.

Making cuts at C.C. of Jackson

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the most cuts at the Sanderson Farms.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2015 Sanderson Farms when it was first played at C.C. of Jackson on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Sanderson Farms starts:

• Emiliano Grillo made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Adam Hadwin made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
• Nicholas Lindheim made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Peter Malnati made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 86.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• J.T. Poston made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,300.
• Sam Burns made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,700.
• Denny McCarthy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Chris Kirk made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Adam Schenk made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Andrew Putnam made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Dylan Frittelli made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Henrik Norlander made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Michael Thompson made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Rory Sabbatini made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Ben Martin made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• William McGirt made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Scott Stallings made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,500.
• Lucas Glover made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Kevin Streelman made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 67.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• C.T. Pan made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 67.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Vaughn Taylor made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 67.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Thomas Detry at $8,800 is worth the gamble, he makes a lot of DraftKings points and has the stats to show his game is good for C.C. of Jackson.  Trey Mullinax at $8,300 is worth the cost, he was T-4th last year in this event and still has some steam with his good play over the summer.  Chris Kirk at $8,200 is another person to think about, makes a lot of cuts in this event and he has the game to do well.  The same with Wyndham Clark at $8,000, yes he is not solid off the tee but he does make a lot of birdies and could do well.  Andrew Putnam is priced right at $7,700 he has the game but the big negative is his lack of firepower and struggles making low numbers.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Southern Farms

Look for those Korn Ferry Tour guys that played well at the end of the year, there are a lot of them in this price range.  Justin Lower at $7,500 is one to watch.  Same with Mark Hubbard at $7,400 he played good at the end of the 2022 season and also like Kevin Streelman and Nick Taylor at $7,400.  Joseph Bramlett at $7,200 has done ok in this event and was T-12th two weeks ago in Napa.