BlogShriners Children’s Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Off to Sin City:

The oldest running fall event, Shriners Hospitals for Children, has all of the glamour of Las Vegas on a course that a lot of players like to play on. For some, this will be a fun week with a little bit of golf mixed in with the fast-paced action of Las Vegas.

Founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic, the event has undergone six name changes in the event’s history. Frys.Com became the title sponsor for the event in 2006, replacing its former title, the Michelin Championship at Las Vegas. 2007 was the final year of Fry’s involvement, and in 2008 Justin Timberlake took on the duties of becoming the tournament presenter with Shriners Hospitals for Children sponsoring the event. Timberlake is no longer associated with the tournament.

At the tournament’s inception, the tournament managers prided themselves on running a tournament that stood out amongst the slew of annual PGA events. It was the first event to offer a total purse of $1 million; at the trophy presentation, the winner used to receive his trophy with two showgirls by his side. Though these ideas help separate the event from others, the most drastic deviation from the norm is the tournament’s format, which in a way, “borrowed” the format at the Bob Hope Open.

In its inception, the tournament was played over five rounds at between three and four courses. However, in 2003, when the original tournament founders abdicated control to another volunteer organization, the event was immediately switched to the more conventional four-round format. Over the years, courses have been dropped, and for the 13th straight year, it’s only played on the TPC Summerlin.

One thing about this event is it’s always lovely winning an event, but some of its past champions, they never got back to the winner’s circle again on the PGA Tour. Look at the 22 past winners since 2000, only 12 Kevin Na (2019), Bryson DeChambeau (2019), Patrick Cantlay (2018), Webb Simpson (2014), Ryan Moore (2012), Kevin Na (2011), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2021 & ’09), George McNeill (2007), Troy Matteson (2006), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Bob Estes (2001) won again on the PGA Tour. The others, Rod Pampling (2017), Smylie Kaufman (2016), Ben Martin (2015), Marc Turnesa (2008), Wes Short Jr. (2005), Andre Stolz (2004), Phil Tataurangi (2002), and Billy Andrade (2000) never made it back to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, and some of them don’t even play anymore on the PGA Tour.

So why are so many players playing?

You have to play in the fall now. It’s not a “junk” section. We are talking about 9 official events in 10 weeks. That’s a fifth of the 47 events on the PGA Tour.  Now that doesn’t count the fall events, which will be a part of this season so that the season could be as big as 56 events. Between the start of the season and the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January, there will be $75 million in prize money given away, which isn’t peanuts.

So that is why you are seeing more and more marquee players now playing. It’s a small fortune they are playing for these days. To think just 26 years ago, in 1996, the year Tiger Woods joined the PGA Tour, Tom Lehman won the money list with $1,780,159.  Woods won in Vegas that year and earned $297,000.  This week is the.3rd PGA Tour event and Max Homa and Mackenzie Hughes have won $1,440,000. 54 years ago, Frank Beard won the money title with $164,707, about the same amount that Joseph Bramlett, who is 24th on the money list, has won in 2 starts this year. It took Ben Hogan 16 years on the PGA Tour before he won his first $100,000. Going a step further, Gene Sarazen collected money on the PGA Tour between 1920 and 1976, and this may seem hard to believe, but in his 56 years of playing, he won 38 times, seven of them majors, and only won $77,787. Will Gordon is 49th on the money list with winnings of $81,794 in just two starts, oh how times have changed.

One last thing this week is the 26th anniversary of Tiger Woods’s first win on the PGA Tour. In 1996 he won the Shriners by beating Davis Love III in a playoff. For the victory, Tiger won $297,000. Keegan Bradley, Emiliano Grillo, Nick Hardy, and Mark Hubbard won $280,9430 for finishing T-5th at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Course information:

TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1992. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The tees, fairways, and rough all comprise of 419 Bermuda Grass, cut at 3/8″, 3/8″, and 2″, respectively. The greens consist of a 1/8″ cut of A-1/A-4 Creeping Bent Grass. This short cut mixed with the always speedy Bent Grass, explains the rather Stimpmeter reading of 11 feet. As for hazards, the course features 99 sand bunkers (with 51 around the greens), and water comes into play on four holes.

The signature hole at TPC Summerlin is the short 341-yard par-four 15th hole. The sizeable elevated green is reachable from the tee; however, numerous bunkers guard the green, making the play risky but possibly very rewarding. As for accolades, Golf Digest rated this as the fourth “Best in State” course for 1995-96, and the fifth-best for 1997-98. Also, GolfWeek awarded it 98th in the category of “America’s 100 Best Modern Courses” for 1997.

Last year was the 14th time that Summerlin was the only course used.  In 2009 they made significant changes, switching par to 71 by making the third hole a long par 4 at 473 yards. In addition to this change, trees were added along the fairways’ right side on Nos. 9 and 16, both par 5s. The rough has also grown longer than in years past, and for holes 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, and 16, the fairways are going to be between 3 and 5 yards narrower than in 2008. All of these changes were made to try and make the course play a bit tougher, but the key to this course playing tough is wind.  Without it the pros have a field day on it.

Lots of birdies are made on this course, last year, 1,905 were made along with 43 eagles. The finish is demanding with the par 3 17th hole playing the 6th hardest hole at 3.044, while the 18th hole was the 3rd hardest at 4.070.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Summerlin.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour. It was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992, just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995, it was the home course of the event and became the tournament’s sole venue in 2008. The course has always been well respected, and for a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on a typical day without wind.

The last two years have seen calm and perfect playing conditions. Last year the course played to a 68.93 average, making it the 42nd hardest of 50 courses on the 2022 PGA Tour schedule. The same in 2021 as the course played easy at a 68.34 average, ranking it 48th of 51 courses. Of the three courses that played easier in 2021 (Sherwood C.C., Caves Valley & Kapalua), they didn’t have full-field events, so the course was the easiest in events that had full fields. The same with 2020, it played to a 68.88 average, which ranked 39th on the PGA Tour. Only two courses played easier that year, and both were at the American Express, so TPC Summerlin played the easiest full-field course on the PGA Tour in 2020. The course played to a 69.13 average in the previous year, which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before, in 2018, in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the course played much tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th most demanding course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017 Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th most challenging course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bomber’s delight, it isn’t. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008, only two bombers won the event, Bryson DeChambeau won in 2019 and Smylie Kaufman in 2016. Last year’s champion SingJae Im finished the year 80th in driving distance and ranked 26th during the Shriners. In looking at all of the other winners, champions like Martin Laird, Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers, so they don’t hit it far. 2021 winner Martin Laird was 15th during the week in driving distance (was T-104th for 2021). The year before, champion Kevin Na was 25th at the Shriners in driving distance, but for the year was 170th, one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019 before Bryson DeChambeau made his stunning transformation in becoming the longest hitter on tour, he was 30th for the week and T-34th over the 2019 season. In 2018 Patrick Cantlay was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year.

So what kind of players wins at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 15 champions since 2007, seven were in the top-five of greens in regulation, and only two winners, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th, and Kevin Na in 2020 was T-46th, were both higher than 15th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). In 2022 Sungjae Im was 1st in Greens hit, joining Bob Estes (2001) as the only two players since 1996 to lead the Greens in Regulation category. Another essential item is putting. Six of the winners were in the top-10 in putting average, with only three not in the top-25 (Im was T-16th last year, Laird was T-25th in 2021, Na was 1st in 2020). The one stat that seems essential is that ten of the previous 15 winners were in double digits in under-par figures on the par 4s. Last year’s winner Sungjae Im was 15 under, the best total of a winner since Bob Estes in 2001 was 18 under. In 2010, winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under, in 2017, Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s, Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under in 2019 while Kevin Na was 10 under in 2020 the same as Laird was in 2021.

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 42nd hardest course to drive in 2022. In 2021 it was the 37th most challenging course to drive in the fairway in calm conditions. In 2020 it was the 35th hardest course to drive in the fairway in calm conditions, but in windy conditions in 2018, it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017 it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course. In 2016 it ranked 11th, and in 2015 it was 17th, so hitting it straight is essential. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them except Kevin Na finished in the top-20, with last year’s winner Martin Laird ranked T-5th, 2020 winner Kevin Na ranked T-25th in driving accuracy. Last year Sungjae Im hit 41 fairways and ranked T-19th.

Some other keys to playing well are making lots of birdies; last year, SungJae Im 26, in 2021, Martin Laird made 22, and in 2020, Kevin Na had 26 birdies and ranked 3rd. In 2019 DeChambeau had 22 birdies, while in 2018, Cantlay had 20 birdies, which were tied for most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played.

One essential item is the weather. This year, every day will be mostly perfect in Las Vegas, with lots of sun and temperatures ranging from 90 degrees on Thursday to 89 on Friday, 87 on Saturday, and 86 on Sunday. Last year, the wind was very low, averaging about 10 mph each day, but this year it will be between 6 to 8 mph during the tournament rounds. So look for the scores to be about the same as the last two years.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. For Im, last year he was 9th, in 2021 Laird was 26th while Na in 2000 ranked 54th, but in 2019 Bryson DeChambeau was 6th, and in 2018 winner Patrick Cantlay was 1st. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked 11th last year and 50th in greens hit last year. Last year’s winner Im ranked 16th, Martin Laird ranked 44th in 2021, Kevin Na was terrible, ranking 60th, but in 2019 DeChambeau was 10th. Also, wind plays a significant factor in this stat. In 2018 in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation, which means many greens will be hit.
Next up, we pick not only scrambling, but sand saves because if the greens are missed, you still have to make par. Last year the field averaged 28th in scrambling, and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 25th in sand save percentage, so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Im was 13th last year in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Laird was great in this stat in 2021, ranking 4th.
Our last category is par breakers, the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lots of birdies and eagles is always essential, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin. Last year 1,905 birdies were made (only two other courses had more) and 43 birdies. The course was T-44th in Par Breakers. Last year’s winner Sungjae Im made 26 birdies (2nd) and one eagle and was 2nd in Par Breakers. In 2021, Laird was T-4th. In 2020 Na was 1st in Par Breakers, DeChambeau was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Cantlay was T-2nd in 2018.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green, so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of a shot going into the green leaves a player.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

92 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Link back to all the player stats

DraftKings tips

First, let’s look at the field and the top-20 who have the best average Draftkings earnings since the start of the 2022 season (must have 4 or more events)

• 87.8 points per event – Patrick Cantlay in 20 events
• 87.0 points per event – S.H. Kim in 3 events
• 82.3 points per event – Thomas Detry in 7 events
• 81.1 points per event – Byeong Hun An in 4 events
• 78.5 points per event – Tom Kim in 11 events
• 78.0 points per event – Sungjae Im in 26 events
• 77.8 points per event – Taylor Montgomery in 4 events
• 76.0 points per event – Max Homa in 25 events
• 70.2 points per event – Aaron Wise in 24 events
• 69.3 points per event – Taylor Pendrith in 22 events
• 67.2 points per event – Maverick McNealy in 29 events
• 66.6 points per event – Mark Hubbard in 24 events
• 66.2 points per event – Keith Mitchell in 26 events
• 66.1 points per event – Seamus Power in 27 events
• 65.9 points per event – Matt Kuchar in 21 events
• 65.1 points per event – Chris Kirk in 27 events
• 65.1 points per event – Davis Riley in 31 events
• 65.0 points per event – Cam Davis in 25 events
• 64.6 points per event – Davis Thompson in 5 events
• 64.0 points per event – Adam Hadwin in 27 events
• 63.3 points per event – Christiaan Bezuidenhout in 25 events

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Patrick Cantlay – $11,100
• Max Homa – $10,600
• Sungjae Im – $10,400
• Aaron Wise – $9,900
• Tom Kim – $9,700
• Taylor Montgomery – $9,500
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,300
• Cam Davis – $9,200
• Alex Noren – $9,100
• Tom Hoge – $9,000

After making great strides in getting more marque names to play at the Shriners, things have changed this week.  Last year with the CP Cup being played in Las Vegas, a lot more marquee players attended both events.  But with the CJ Cup moving to South Carolina and the tour coming from Mississippi and going next week to Japan, we have seen a drastic change in the field.  Last year 50 top-100 players and 27 of the top 50 attended the Shriners.  But this year is different as only 11 top-50 players are in the field.  Guess this is the new norm for fall golf, next year with all of the changes will probably see even worst fields as the top-125 take most of the fall off.

As for this year, we do have some big names at the Shriner, so making picks will be hard as most of the notable players will have a high price tag.  As we have seen in the past, top names seem to not come to the top, and the players we least expect a win, just like Mackenzie Hughes did.  For Hughes, he was not on many people’s radar scoop since he had such a terrible summer.  But Hughes found some magic not only around but on the greens to win the Sanderson Farms.  So we need to find the next Mackenzie Hughes.  Now we can’t totally ignore the biggest marquee name in the field, Patrick Cantlay, at $11,100.  He ended the regular season winning the BMW Championship and finishing T-7th at East Lake.  In the Presidents Cup, he played great, winning three of his four matches.  But the biggest item for Cantlay is his dominance in this event.  In four starts, he has a win and two runner-ups, his worst finish was T-8th in 2020.  In 16 rounds, he has only been over par once, the final round in 2021, and he has 13 rounds in the 60s, so we have to say despite the high price tag, you need to consider him, especially when you consider that in 20 events, Cantlay averages 87.8 points per event, the highest average of DraftKings points of anyone in the field.  In comparison, Max Homa is priced at $10,600 and averages 76.0 points per round.  Now Max is a big no for me, in five starts in Vegas, he only has made one cut, so it’s safe to say he won’t contend this week at TPC Summerlin.  But for defending champion Sungjae Im at $10,400, he needs to be considered.  Since playing well at the FedExCup playoffs, finishing T-2nd at the Tour Championship, he played in the Presidents Cup and did win his singles match against Cameron Young.  So with a good record in this event, he is a safe bet.  But between Cantlay and Im, you can only choose one, and for me, that would be Cantlay.  Aaron Wise at $9,900 is a no for me.  Yes, I realize he was T-8th last year at the Shriners, but he hasn’t played since finishing T-13th at the Tour Championship, and I just don’t think TPC Summerlin offers much for Wise.  Tom Kim, or as we got to know him as Joohyung, is at $9,700, which is high for a rookie.  After a great summer, he slowed up a bit, finishing T-54th at the BMW Championship.  In the Presidents Cup, he did win two of the five matches he played in, but we have to ask ourselves if Kim could play well at TPC Summerlin, a course he has never played at?  I say no to his this week, his TPC record is spotty at best, and think we need to watch him in further starts.  Taylor Montgomery at $9,500 is the surprise of the young PGA Tour season.  He was T-9th at the Sanderson Farms, but many don’t realize that Montgomery has been in the top ten in his last six starts, returning to the Korn Ferry finals.  Even more dramatic, he has been in the top 13 in 15 of his last 18 starts, which is remarkable.  But looking at his last six starts, he is a remarkable 91 under par in those events and has been in the 60s in 18 of his last 24 starts.  Sure he hasn’t played at TPC Summerlin, and $9,500 is a big number for a rookie, but he has shown he is worth the cost, especially when you see he has earned 77.8 DraftKing points in the four PGA Tour events that give points.  Emiliano Grillo at $9,300 is a no for me.  Yes, he was T-5th last week in Mississippi, but in four Summerlin starts, his best finish is T-34th.  He averages 65 DraftKing points per round, but that isn’t enough to sway me into taking him at his high price.  Alex Noren at $9,100 is a tossup.  Yes, I know that he was T-2nd at the Dunhill Links, but he now has to endure the long trip from Scotland, and since he has no record at this course, we don’t have much to go by.  Lastly, we have Tom Hoge at $9,000.  Could he be the next Mackenzie Hughes?  He was T-14th last year in this event, and we like the fact that in six Summerlin starts, he has made five cuts with a T-7th at the Shriners.  He was T-12th at the Fortinet and over the summer, missed six straight cuts before finishing T-4th at the 3M Open and 10th at the Tour Championship.  So yes, he is worth the cost.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the most cuts at Sanderson Farms.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 1096 Shriners on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Shriners starts:

• Patrick Cantlay made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,100.
• Beau Hossler made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Cam Davis made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Gary Woodland made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Nick Taylor made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 88.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Stewart Cink made 12 cuts in 14 starts for a 86.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Martin Laird made 11 cuts in 13 starts for a 85.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Kevin Streelman made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Adam Hadwin made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Tom Hoge made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Ryan Moore made 12 cuts in 15 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Adam Schenk made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Andrew Putnam made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Joel Dahmen made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Robert Streb made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Si Woo Kim made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• John Huh made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 78.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Scott Piercy made 12 cuts in 16 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Russell Knox made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Chesson Hadley made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,9400.
• Nate Lashley 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Seamus Power made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Wyndham Clark made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Brian Harman made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Matt Kuchar 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Troy Merritt made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to say that there are some good picks in this price range.  First is Brain Harman at $8,900, a record at Summerlin that is mixed but played well in 2022.  Davis Riley at $8,800 is also someone to consider, he was T-56th last year at Summerlin and was T-19th at Sanderson Farms.  Si Woo Kim at $8,600 is also a person to watch, he was T-8th in 2021, but like that in 26 PGA Tour events, averages 78.0 points per event.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $8,200 intrigues me, first with the fact that in 25 PGA Tour events averages 63.3 DraftKing points event and has played steady of late.  Most of all, he fits into this category of a possible winner that nobody thinks about.  Also, like Maverick McNealy at $8,100, yes has missed three of the four cuts in this event and missed the cut at Fortinet, but again fits that mold of a player you least expect to do well.  Also, like Thomas Detry at $7,900, a Shriner’s rookie in his last three starts was T-9th at Sanderson Farms, T-12th at Fortinet, and T-5th at BMW PGA Championship.  I have also been harping on Rickie Fowler, who is $7,800 this week.  Yes, not an impressive record at Summerlin, but he was T-4th in 2019, and we all know has been working hard with Butch Harman.  Think they will be working hard this week since Butch lives in Vegas, so look for a good week out of Fowler.  Adam Hadwin at $7,700 is also worth the money, he was T-6th last year and T-4th in 2019.  He averages 64 DraftKing points per event and makes a lot of cuts.  Seamus Power is $7,600 and another worth the money, racks in a lot of DraftKing Points with 66.1 per event.  Also, have to watch Matt Kuchar at $7,600, he always makes cuts, and in 21 PGA Tour events, averages 65.9 DraftKing points per event.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Lots of good choices, first Matthew Nesmith at $7,500 has three top-20s in this event, including T-8th in 2020.  Mark Hubbard at $7,400 is also playing well, was T-5th at Sanderson Farms and T-21st at Fortinet.  Gary Woodland at $7,400 is also played well at Summerlin, and was T-10th in 2019.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

The key stat for the winner:

Making lots of birdies is important.  The average for the last 18 winners since the course reverted to a 72-hole affair is 22 under, and the winners average making 24 birdies per event or six per round.  So the secret is to make a lot of birdies.  Last year Sungjae In made 6 birdies in his win.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

With fairways that are wide open, fairways with lots of roll, dominating the par 5s has been a key.  It’s also interesting to note that in the last 17 years, the winners have averaged 10 under par on the par 4s.  Last year Sungjae Im was 15 under on them, while in 2021, Martin Laird was 9 under on them, in 2020, Kevin Na was 10 under the year before Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under the best of anyone in the field.  In 2018 Patrick Cantlay was 1 over the only time a winner has been over par but remember, it was very windy.  In 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under on the par 4s, in 2016, Smylie Kaufman was 6 under on the par 4s while Ben Martin was 9 under in 2015, and in 2014 Webb Simpson was 12 under, the same as Ryan Moore was in 2012. Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under in 2010, while the least low was 6 under by George McNeill in 2007.

Being an accurate driver, a long driver, or a person that hits a lot of greens doesn’t give you a big advantage.  Scrambling is very important, TPC Summerlin ranked 28th on the PGA Tour last year.  If there ever was a tournament that favors the newcomer, this is it.

Most of the time, the weather is wonderful, it should be that way this year, with very little wind the first two days but getting breezy over the weekend.

You have to realize where you are at.  In Las Vegas, “lady luck” is very important in winning, a lot of players that you would never think would win have found the “luck factor” in victory.