BlogZozo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Three weeks in, and amazing, we have three winners who have won before on the PGA Tour. The biggest surprise was Korn Ferry Tour graduate Taylor Montgomery who was 3rd at the Fortinet, T-9th at Sanderson Farms, and T-15th at the Shriners. He is taking this week off, guess we can’t blame him since he feels that it’s best not to exhaust himself by going to Japan for a week and then to have to play next week in South Carolina. Now it’s not like your golfing over to Japan in the back of a United plane bound for Tokyo. The PGA Tour has a charter for those going over to help ease some of the travel. Still, going to Japan from Las Vegas is not an easy proposition. The flight is about 13 hours, and Japan is 16 hours ahead of Las Vegas. So at best, you get into Japan on Tuesday morning, go to the hotel for a quick shower, and then you get some of Tuesday and all day Wednesday to prepare. Unfortunately, your body shows signs of jet lag when the tournament starts on Thursday morning. Then for those playing in South Carolina, you have an even longer flight from Japan and more time change.

But the reward is the key, the event only has a field of 78, with first place earning $1,980,000, and if you finish last, you still get $17,600 for your troubles. Despite the schedule for 2023 coming out, it ends after the Tour Championship in August. We know that to get into the playoffs, it will be for just the top 70, and those will have to earn their PGA Tour cards in Fall events. But at the same time, the PGA Tour announced that there would be three big-money international events in the fall for the top-50. I have to speculate that the Zozo Championship will probably be one of them. So these years Zozo could be the prelude to that.

Two 20-year-old winners:

We saw two 20-year-olds winning on Sunday. In Las Vegas, Tom Kim (AKA Joohyung Kim) won when Patrick Cantlay gave the tournament to Kim by making a triple bogey on the final hole. Kim has been on my radar screen, and Golfstats has talked about him since he qualified for the 2020 PGA Championship in San Francisco. Kim was born in Seoul, South Korea, and his father Chang-Ik, who played some golf in America and became a teaching professional, taught him everything. Kim was home-schooled in the lead-up to his professional career. While growing up in Australia, Kim looked around for a suitable first name and chose Tom as he was a fan of the Thomas the Tank Engine television series. Kim turned professional at 16 and played on the Philippine Tour, then in 2019 on the Asian Development Tour. He was winning professional events at the age of 17, and with his win at the 2019 Panasonic Open in India, he became at 17 years and 149 days, the second youngest to win on the Asian Tour. He moved on to the Korean Tour and in limited play due to COVID in 2020. He played in seven events in Korea, Asia, and Japan and had two fourth-place finishes, a 2nd at the Busan Gyeonghnam Open in Korea, and then the next week, won the Gunsan CC Open. With the PGA Championship just four weeks away, Kim moved up to 92nd on the World Ranking and earned his first Major start. He missed the cut in San Francisco but played in three events on the PGA Tour in the fall of 2020, making the cut in all three. In 2021 he played very consistently in Korea and in 14 starts, had five top-3s, including a win at the SK Telecom Open. In 2022 he started on the Asian Tour and, with his victory in the Singapore International, moved to 89th in the World Rankings. In April, he played in three events on the Asian Tour and finished 2nd at the Trust Golf Asian Mixed Cup, T-4th at the Trust Golf Mixed Stableford Challenge, and T-5th at the Maekyung Open. That would be his last start in Asia. He worked himself up to 71st in the world rankings and was given berths at the AT&T Byron Nelson, finishing T-17th and missed the cut at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. His next start was the International Series in London, and he finished 5th. Because he won the Asian Tour’s order of merit in 2021, he got into the U.S. Open and finished 23rd. He got into the Genesis Scottish Open and was 3rd, then T-47th at the British Open. That got him special membership for the PGA Tour in the three remaining events before the FedExCup playoffs. He was T-26th at the 3M Open, 7th at the Rocket Mortgage, and with his win at the Wyndham Championship, he got his full PGA Tour membership and was able to play in the first two FedExcup playoff events. He finished the year 35th on the final 2022 FedExCup points list.

With his victory at the Shriners, he has notched himself into Tiger Woods status, becoming the first player since Woods to win twice before turning 21. So it will be interesting to see if Kim could emulate Woods and go to an even higher level in Golf. Time will tell, but he looked great for the last two years, and I see if he is healthy, nothing but great things coming from him.

Now the other 20-year-old winner was Eugenio Lopez-Chacarera. He has come to professional Golf in an entirely different realm. We can say he was in the right place at the right time to take full advantage of the LIV Golf Tour. Chacarera was a star at Oklahoma State, the number 2 ranked amateur in the country. Despite never playing in any majors or even in the U.S. Amateur, after Chacarra finished 2nd in the individual standings of the finals of the NCAA (he lost in a playoff), he was approached by LIV Golf. According to the Spanish Paper Marca, despite wanting to stay an amateur for another year, he signed a three-year contract worth between $8 and $15 million. The exact figure has never been made public, but as he told the “Marca,” the agreement now gives him peace of mind and ensures his family’s future. So just like that, Chacarra hit the lottery, found himself playing in his first professional event in Portland, and finished T-27th. He played in the other three and didn’t finish better than a T-21st in Chicago. But at the LIV Golf Invitational Bangkok, Chacarra hit the second lottery of his life, playing like a superstar to lead wire-to-wire with rounds of 65-63-69 for a four-shot victory over Patrick Reed. With the triumph, Chacarra won $4 million, and with his Fireball team winning $3 million, he collected $4,750,000 for his three days of work in Bangkok. So despite only playing in three PGA Tour events as an amateur and a European Tour Challenge event and only making one cut, I have to say that Chacarra has made more money than any 20-year-old in Golf. Despite playing in 77 professional events around the world, even Joohyung Kim, with 8 wins around the world, is at the same earnings that Chacarra won in just one event, and we haven’t figured in the $8 to $15 million “appearance fee” that Chacarra got to join LIV Golf. Despite Chacarra being set for life financially, it will be interesting to see if Chacarra will be able to play in any majors in 2023, and the odds are in Kim’s favor in having a more satisfying start to his career. As of this week, Chacarra will be playing in Saudi Arabia and trying to replicate his $4.75 million score, while Kim is in Japan playing in the Zozo Championship.

Other guys to watch in the future.

Some guys to watch for in Japan, Sepp Straka was 2nd in the Sanderson Farms, and Sungjae Im was 7th at the Shriners. Tom Hoge was T-12th at the Fortinet and T-4th at the Shriners, but the hottest player coming into Japan has to be Matthew NeSmith, who was T-9th at the Sanderson and T-2nd at the Shriners. One player I am hesitant with is defending champion Hideki Matsuyama. He hasn’t had a top-ten since his 4th at the U.S. Open, and I still don’t think he is healthy, so it’s probably best to pass on him this week. One person I am still keen on is Rickie Fowler, even with him missing the cut at the Shriners, think he will sometime soon surprise us all.

Other revelations, watch Si Woo Kim, who was T-8th at the Shriners. Last year he was T-18th in Japan. Also, watch Sanderson Farms winner Mackenzie Hughes, he was T-4th last year in Japan. Keegan Bradley was T-5th at Sanderson Farms and T-7th in Japan last year. As for players on the Japan Golf Tour, Kazuki Higa led their money list and was T-3rd last week at the Vantelin Tokai Classic. Just last month, Higa won the Shinhan Donghae Open. Japan Golf Tour rookie Riki Kawamoto won last week at Vantelin and will play in the Zozo Championship.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Course information:

• Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
• 34 – 36 = 70
• 3,279 – 3,762 = 7,041
• There are 5 par 3s, 10 par 4s and 3 par 5s
• All 5 par 3s are under 191 yards
• There are 3 par 4s under 400 yards, 5 par 4s over 480 yards
• 1 par 5 over 600 yards

This event got its start three years ago when it was played in Japan.  It became an instant success when Tiger Woods won it, the last event Woods has won.  Because of COVID-19, the event in 2021 was played outside of Los Angeles at Sherwood C.C.  With the pandemic easing, it returned to Japan and the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, the same club that Tiger Woods won three years ago.  As for Accordia Golf, it’s not one of the best courses in Japan.  It also doesn’t have the reputation of being a brute of a course. In 2020 45 of the 78 broke par, and the course played to a 69.52 average for the par 70 layout.  Last year the course had more bite to it, and only 27 of the 78 broke par with the course playing to a 70.48 scoring average as it was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022.

So the course does have some bite to it, a course that we will see more bomb and gouge on.  Accordia is outside of Tokyo and was picked because it can accommodate a lot of spectators.  The original course opened in 1965, and a second 18 was open soon after. Japan course architect Junya Fujita did both, and they have held several professional events, the biggest being the 1977 Japan Open.  The course being played this week is a composite of the 36 holes as it will play to a par 70 at 7,041 yards.  The first thing for everyone to realize, this is a concise course under the standards of having the best players in the world play it.  With Zoysia fairways, the course will play to its true yardage, but the combination of many mature trees and most of the holes bending to one way or another takes the driver out of the hands of the long drivers.  The rough is thick, but since most shots will be between a 6 iron to pitching wedge, it’s nothing the pros can’t handle.  There are a lot of thick trees that line the fairways, and wayward drives will cause problems for those that are wild off the tee, but still, the length will be an advantage this week. One thing the players find strange, each hole has two greens. That’s because they have summer and winter greens in Japan.  So like last year and in 2020, the PGA Tour will pick the green that is in the best shape and presents the best challenge.  The greens are extensive and easy to hit from the fairways, they do have some undulations.  The players will find the greens a bit slow for what they are used to, which could be a significant advantage for poorer putters.  Bunkers are no problem and are there more for cosmetic looks, and any chip around the green will be easy.

Now the bad news, the weather for the week won’t be good.  Thursday will hit a high of 66, with rain most of the day.  Friday will get to 61 with rain in the morning. Saturday and Sunday will be mostly cloudy, with temperatures in the mid-70s.  Each day will see winds between 7 and 11 mph.

Players we shouldn’t forget about

This week’s event is being played in Japan, which has a very capable tour in which 18 members of the Tour are playing this week.  We all know about Hideki Matsuyama, who won this event last year.  But a few others are playing that we don’t know much about but could also be content.  We talked about Kazuki Higa earlier, but Yuto Katsuragawa is second on the money list.  He is hot as a pistol, was 2nd last week at the Vantelin Tokai Classic, and 3rd the week before at the Panasonic.  He is playing at the Zozo for the first time.  Third on the money is is Tomoharu Otsuki, he was T-35th last year at the Zozo.  He won last month at the ANA Open and how been consistent all year.  The best amateur in the last couple of years has been Keita Nakajima, who turned pro a few weeks ago.  Since turning pro, he was T-48th at the Panasonic Open and T-26th last week at the Tokai Classic, he is my long shot this week.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Xander Schauffele – $10,800
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,400
• Collin Morikawa – $10,200
• Sungjae Im – $10,000
• Tom Kim – $9,700
• Viktor Hovland – $9,500
• Cameron Young – $9,300
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,100
• Corey Conners – $9,000

Before we start, have to remind you that Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of us, so you have to get your picks in by Wednesday afternoon.  The game will probably close on Wednesday night at 7:30.

We have an event in which there won’t be a cut, so we can have all six players generating points for 72 holes.  A change of pace, I like the top player, Xander Schauffele at $10,800.  He won in Tokyo at the Olympics last summer, yes, he only finished T-28th last year but was T-10th in 2020.  This is his first tournament since he finished 4th at the Tour Championship, he won three of his four matches at the Presidents Cup.  Think he will have a good week.  Not the same for Hideki Matsuyama at $10,400, think he will give you a top-ten but just don’t think he can win, he played terribly at the President Cup, losing three matches, winning one and halving one.  I also don’t have much faith in Collin Morikawa at $10,200.  Yes, 2022 was not a great year, but he did win two of three matches in the Presidents Cup and has had a month off, so maybe he is refreshed and ready to go.  Has had success on this course, was T-7th last year.  I like Sungjae Im at $10,000, he was T-3rd at this course in 2020 and was 7th last week at the Shriners.  Tom Kim at $9,700 is hard to judge, he has never played this event but is coming off a win.  He is young enough that the last week’s winner will be easy to get over, don’t think he will win but should have a top-five or six.  Viktor Hovland at $9,500 is a no, sorry just don’t think this week suits his game.  Cameron Young at $9,300 is a yes for me, it’s more of a feeling than stats.  He has never played in Japan, but he is coming off a big break, and I feel that he travels well and will have a great week.  Also like Tommy Fleetwood at $9,200, he is getting back into the swing of things after his mom’s death.  Was T-7th last year at Accordia.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,100 is also a yes, he has never played at Accordia but played well of late, finishing 8th at the Italian Open and T-7th at the Dunhill Links.  Last, we have Corey Conners at $9,000, he hasn’t played much since the head of 2022, but have to say he did play at Accordia in 2020 and was T-6th, so maybe he will be a surprise this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to say that Si Woo Kim at $8,800 is worth the price, he was T-9th at the Shriners and has always been consistent, plus he makes a lot of Draftking points, last week, he earned 115.5 points in Las Vegas.  Tom Hoge at $8,600 is a good choice, he has experience at Accordia finishing 17th last year, plus he was T-12th at Fortinet and T-4th at the Shriners.  Maverick McNealy at $8,400 was a good choice last week when he finished T-10th at the Shriners and earned 105 DraftKings points, he was T-25th last year at the Zozo.  Mito Pereira at $8,300 is worth a chance, he was T-4th at the Shriners and earned 125 DraftKings points, he is playing the Zozo for the first time.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $8,000 is also a good choice he was T-20th at the Shriners.  Sepp Straka at $7,900 is also on a high after finishing 2nd at the Sanderson Farms.  The best player in this price zone is Matthew NeSmith at $7,800, he was T-2nd last week at the Shriners and T-9th at the Sanderson Farms.  Another great buy is Mackenzie Hughes at $7,600, he not only won at the Sanderson Farms but last year was T-4th at the Zozo.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Zozo Championship

With all of the Japanese players, this section is ripe with a lot of players worth the money.  Off the bat, I still like Rickie Fowler at $7,400, even though he missed the cut in Las Vegas.  Hard to believe Brendan Steele is at $7,400 despite finishing T-2nd last year at the Zozo, but he has missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms and the Fortinet.  It’s now time to find some Japanese players, first is Kazuki Higa at $6,600, then Yuto Katsuragawa at $6,300 and then Keita Nakajima at $6,100.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Zozo Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Of the field of 78 players, only a handful have seen the course.  30 of the 78 players will be a new adventure learning the course.
• Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:
• Just like last week, this course can be seriously attacked, and long hitters have a big advantage.  Now that doesn’t mean you can be wild, just off the fairway works, but if your way off line it will be a tough go because the course has a lot of trees down each fairway.
• We can see that the greens are easy to hit, but since many of them sit up if a green is missed by a lot, it will be hard to get it up and down, so those that scramble well will have an advantage.
• Look For a birdie fest this week.  The year the 78 players made 945 birdies on the course, that works out to 3.05 per round.  Of the 14 that finished in the top-ten, they averaged making 3.86 birdies per round.
• Don’t disregard any of the Japanese players, a half dozen could be in the mix to content this week.
• One last thing, look for players that have done well of late.