BlogBermuda Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Hard to believe that the fall portion of the PGA Tour is halfway finished, and a big trend is already happening.  For the third year in a row, the first five winners have won before on the PGA Tour, showing us that more players see the importance of playing in the fall.  This week is the Bermuda Champions. This event was supposed to be a second-tier event opposite the WGC-HSBC Champions for the third year in a row, the China event was canceled, and frankly, we may never see that event again. So the Bermuda Championship is again a full event status, despite having a poor field.

The field for this week’s event is not very rich, as the marquee names are John Daly, Lucas Glover, and Luke Donald.  So the chances are good that we will have a rookie winner this week, but you never know.  Despite a field loaded with winners, in the past winners have won.  In the first Bermuda Championship in 2020, Brendon Todd won for the second time in his career.  The next year Brian Gay, who had won four times on the PGA Tour, won his fifth title.  Last year Lucas Herbert won for the first time on the PGA Tour, but he had two wins on the DP Tour in the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic and the 2021 Irish Open.  So anything is possible, look for past winners on the PGA Tour, guys like Lucas Glover, Garrick Higgo, Seamus Power, and Erik Van Rooyen.

Many ask me why more marquee players are on the field.  Bermuda is a dream place to visit, the beaches are very nice, the island is never crowded.  Normally the weather is nice and in the high 70s.  But this week the weather will be very iffy, it will be 80 and each day will have thunderstorms.  If that is bad enough, the winds will be coming from the south at 15 mph, which will make things challenging.  Players dislike playing in winds because it messes up swings for the week after.  Another black mark, the course is not that great and is tricky to play in wind.  So for players, it’s not really a fun week, have to wonder if the event could move to the Mid-Ocean Club, which is one of the gems in the world if more players would attend.  But it’s not; frankly, you can’t have a great weekly event every week.

Things you need to know about the Port Royal GC

Located on the island of Bermuda, which is in the Atlantic Ocean 650 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The course is on the southwest part of the island, with most of the holes having views of the Atlantic.  It was originally supposed to be built in 1965, and they had some problems with one farmer who changed his mind about selling the property.  In 1967 all the land was bought, and Robert Trent Jones did the routing, and the course opened in 1970.

Course information:

• Port Royal GC
• Southampton, Bermuda
• 6,828 yards     Par 36-35–72

The course is government-run and one of the most popular public courses in the world, and it was the host of the Bermuda Open.  The course got a $16 million renovation in 2009 so that it could host the PGA Grand Slam of Golf.  With the support of the Bermuda Government, Port Royal is now one of the world’s premier public golf courses boasting TifEagle greens, a state-of-the-art irrigation system, and sweeping ocean views from nearly every hole.

Jones built the course to utilize the ocean views along with the par 3 16th hole that dangles over the Atlantic Ocean.  At 6,828 yards, it’s the shortest course on the PGA Tour for 2022 (The Travelers TPC River Highlands at 6,841 is 13 yards longer), but one that won’t appeal to long hitters.  The reason, most of the holes have sharp doglegs, which require finesse off the tee.  The course only has three holes that don’t dogleg, so most players have to throttle back off the tee.  So off the bat, those that are short off the tee have an advantage.  In looking at the previous champions, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd are the shortest players on the PGA Tour.  Last year’s champion Lucas Herbert is a lot longer, last year, he was T-34th in driving distance on all drives and T-4th this year.  So we can see merit for both long and short hitters this week.

The most significant protection Port Royal has is mother nature.  Sitting on a bluff over the Atlantic, it has severe wind coming off of the ocean.  On a perfect day, winds will be around 10 mph.  But on average, expect average winds between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts up to 30 miles per hour.  Last year the weather wasn’t very good. Thursday and Friday had scattered showers, with winds between 20 and 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.  Over the weekend, they had scattered showers and winds between 10 – 15 mph with gusts at 20 mph. So as we said earlier, this is one of the reasons you don’t see more marquee names; most players tend to avoid courses with a history of high winds.  Many a player have found themselves all messed up after playing a few rounds in the wind.  So look for those who excel in windy conditions, players that grew up in windy places like Texas, Florida, Australia, or Great Britain and Ireland. Those players who fit the bill are Brian Gay, Russell Knox, Thomas Detry, Seamus Power, Patrick Rodgers, Akshay Bhatia, Nate Lashley and Lucas Glover.

I also have to look at players with a lot of experience, this is not a course that will allow a young player to win, so I see the champion who has won before.  Most importantly, look for those that have played a lot in windy conditions.  Lastly, you want a player who can play well on par 4s, past winners Brendon Todd was 12 under on the par 4s, 2021 winner Brian Gay was 15 under, and last year Lucas Herbert was 7 under.

Still, the course will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, so those with offense will do well.

DraftKings tips

First, let’s look at the field and the top 30 who have the best average Draftkings earnings since the start of the 2022 season (must have 5 or more events)

80.9 points per event – Thomas Detry in 8 events – Cost $10,500 (Has made 8 of 8 cuts)

77.1 points per event – S.H. Kim in 5 events – Cost $9,600 (Has made 5 of 5 cuts)

76.7 points per event – Byeong Hun An in 6 events – Cost $8,500 (Has made 5 of 6 cuts)

67.9 points per event – Scott Brown in 14 events – Cost $6,600 (Has made 8 of 14 cuts)

66.7 points per event – Mark Hubbard in 26 events – Cost $10,000 (Has made 20 of 26 cuts)

65.8 points per event – Ben Griffin in 5 events – Cost $7,200 (Has made 3 of 5 cuts)

64.9 points per event – Seamus Power in 29 events – Cost $10,200 (Has made 18 of 29 cuts)

63.3 points per event – Justin Lower in 27 events – Cost $9,900 (Has made 18 of 27 cuts)

63.0 points per event – Kevin Yu in 5 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 3 of 5 cuts)

61.2 points per event – Austin Eckroat in 7 events – Cost $8,300 (Has made 6 of 7 cuts)

60.3 points per event – Aaron Rai in 31 events – Cost $10,100 (Has made 22 of 31 cuts)

59.9 points per event – Denny McCarthy in 33 events – Cost $10,400 (Has made 25 of 33 cuts)

59.9 points per event – Nick Hardy in 24 events – Cost $9,800 (Has made 15 of 24 cuts)

59.2 points per event – Patrick Rodgers in 31 events – Cost $9,700 (Has made 20 of 31 cuts)

59.0 points per event – Austin Smotherman in 28 events – Cost $7,500 (Has made 19 of 28 cuts)

57.3 points per event – Russell Knox in 32 events – Cost $9,200 (Has made 21 of 32 cuts)

57.2 points per event – Greyson Sigg in 33 events – Cost $9,400 (Has made 21 of 33 cuts)

57.0 points per event – C.T. Pan in 27 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 20 of 27 cuts)

56.9 points per event – Tyler Duncan in 30 events – Cost $7,400 (Has made 18 of 30 cuts)

56.7 points per event – Stephan Jaeger in 35 events – Cost $9,300 (Has made 19 of 35 cuts)

56.4 points per event – Sam Ryder in 34 events – Cost $7,700 (Has made 19 of 34 cuts)

56.2 points per event – Lucas Glover in 30 events – Cost $7,500 (Has made 21 of 30 cuts)

56.0 points per event – Nate Lashley in 28 events – Cost $7,000 (Has made 16 of 28 cuts)

55.8 points per event – Brandon Wu in 30 events – Cost $8,400 (Has made 15 of 30 cuts)

55.6 points per event – Michael Gligic in 27 events – Cost $8,100 (Has made 18 of 27 cuts)

55.5 points per event – Cameron Percy in 18 events – Cost $7,900 (Has made 10 of 18 cuts)

55.1 points per event – Adam Long in 31 events – Cost $8,900 (Has made 20 of 31 cuts)

53.9 points per event – Harry Hall in 6 events – Cost $7,600 (Has made 2 of 6 cuts)

53.5 points per event – Callum Tarren in 29 events – Cost $8,200 (Has made 14 of 29 cuts)

53.4 points per event – Matthias Schwab in 26 events – Cost $7,000 (Has made 17 of 26 cuts)

So let’s make some picks for the Bermuda Championship going off of the above list and pick six players, which would be winners?

Remember, with a $50,000 cap, that means we have to average $8,333 per player:

This week we will enter the $300K pitch and putt game with a cost of $20

• Thomas Detry – $10,500
• Justin Lower – $9,900
• Austin Eckroat – $8,300
• C.T. Pan – $7,300
• Kevin Yu – $7,300
• Scott Brown – $6,600

DraftKings picks from last week.

Based on a version of the above chart, I made my six DraftKings picks last week, and it’s time to see how I did.

The six players I picked were mixed by the good news is I won.  In the $300K flop shot, I was one of 17,647 entries, with my guys ranking 983.  The game cost $15, and I won $35, so a profit of $20.

The winner scored 643 points, while my six guys earned 531.  The winner was not only had the winner Rory McIlroy, but he also had Kurt Kitayama, who finished 2nd, K.H. Lee, who finished 3rd, and Jon Rahm, who finished T-4th.  His worst pick was Brian Harman, who finished T-23rd.

On my picks, it helped a lot that I picked the winner McIlroy and my other top-ten was Billy Horschel at T-7th.  Three of my six finished T-13th.  After that, my last guy Byeong Hun An finished T-62nd.

So here are the results of my six guys:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,100 who won with 159.5 points
• Bill Horschel – $8,000 finished T-7th with 90 points
• Taylor Montgomery – $8,200 finished T-13th with 85 points
• Tyrrell Hatton – $8,500 finished T-13th with 84 points
• Tom Hoge – $7,000 finished T-13th with 82.5 points
• Byeong Hun An – $6,500 finished T-62nd with 50.5 points

So I had a good week and was 41 points out of getting into the top-100 which won $70

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Thomas Detry – $10,500
• Denny McCarthy – $10,400
• Adrian Meronk – $10,300
• Seamus Power – $10,200
• Aaron Rai – $10,100
• Mark Hubbard – $10,000
• Justin Lower – $9,900
• Nick Hardy – $9,800
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,700
• S.H. Kim – $9,600
• Alex Smalley – $9,500
• Greyson Sigg – $9,400
• Stephan Jaeger – $9,300
• Russell Knox – $9,200
• Robbie Shelton – $9,100

This is another really hard event to peg.  Because most of the players are from the Korn Ferry Tour and don’t have many DraftKing stats, you will notice that those with great historical data are very expensive  Lot’s of players at the top that you don’t want to pay over $9,000 for, but have to.  Making it harder of course, will be the weather, and there is a 36-hole cut, so we have to try and pick six that will be around all four days.  I feel that ensuring all your players stick around for the weekend is the most important thing.  Lot’s of former Korn Ferry Tour players on the field, it’s time to pick those that will do well.

It’s not hard to believe that DraftKings picked Thomas Detry – $10,500 as the top player.  He was a regular on the DP Tour but got into the Korn Ferry finals and, with his T-4th at the Albertson, was able to get his card.  Since then has had some good finishes, T-5th at the BMW PGA and then T-12th at the Fortinet, T-9th at the Sanderson Farms, and T-69th at the Shriners.  He played last year in Bermuda and finished T-22nd.  For DraftKings, he is perfect, of those in the field, he has the best average of points per event of 80.9, so he is one that should do well.  Denny McCarthy at $10,400, is one of those players that is hard to pick, but he has made 25 of his last 33 starts and did finish T-4th in Bermuda in 2021.  Adrian Meronk at $10,300 is also a hard choice.  He is priced because of the way he played between May and June when he won the Irish Open and did well.  Since then, the DP World Tour has made cuts but nothing to make you want to take him, so pass on Meronk.  Seamus Power at $10,200 is a toss-up, he has made three cuts in Bermuda and was T-12th last year.  He struggled of late, and in his last 29 starts, he has only made 18 cuts, so that is something to worry about.  Yes, he averages 64.9 DraftKings points, but I am worried about him making the cut.  Aaron Rai at $10,100 is a no, he finished T-5th last month in Italy, but I just don’t think he is worth the price.  Mark Hubbard at $10,000 has some merit and has made the cut in his two Bermuda starts, his best finish was T-22nd last year.  Has made 20 cuts in his last 26 starts, so that is good news, again the price is high, but he could do well.  I do like Justin Lower at $9,900, first was T-17th last year in Bermuda.  Does play well on courses by oceans with wind, and I like that he has averaged 63.3 DraftKings per event.  Nick Hardy at $9,800 is very high and only makes 62% of his cuts.  Still, he racks up DraftKings points averaging 59.9 points.  Patrick Rodgers at $9,700, has always had the potential but hasn’t brought in the goods.  He makes a good share of cuts, but he struggles to get into the top ten he was 4th in Bermuda last year, so maybe he will be good.  S.H. Kim at $9,600, has too little of a record to make him a choice.  Now he has played in four events in 2023 and made four cuts with a T-4th in Las Vegas.  Still not enough to get my support.  Alex Smalley at $9,500 is a shot in the dark, yes was T-12th last year in Bermuda and T-2nd at Corales, another event on an ocean.  He was T-6th in Mexico and T-10th in Scotland, so that is the reason to pick him.  But the big problem is a lack of making DraftKing points, has averaged 52.1 per event, which places him halfway down the list of those playing this week.  Greyson Sigg at $9,400 is a no, he finished T-22nd in Bermuda last year but only made 21 of 33 cuts, and I think you should pass on him.  Same with Stephan Jaeger at $9,300, he misses his fair share of cuts and gets a high price because he was T-20th last year in Bermuda.  Now I do like Russell Knox at $9,200, he has finished T-12th, T-16th, and T-11th in his three Bermuda starts.  Now he has won twice on the PGA Tour, and he reminds me of Brian Gay, so he could surprise some and win.  Robbie Shelton at $9,100 is a no for me, yes he played well last year on the Korn Ferry Tour and has made three cuts in three 2023 starts, but sorry, he is too much money.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money and will make the cut?:

Adam Schenk at $8,700 is a possibility, he has been steady of late and was T-26th in 2021.  Austin Eckroat at $8,300 is a player with some potential, has made a lot of cuts, and was T-22nd last year in Bermuda.  Sam Ryder at $7,700 is also worth looking at; he made six of his last seven cuts and has the potential for good things.  Lucas Glover at $7,500 is also worth a look at.  We know that he can win at any time, he is great from tee-to-Green but a terrible putter.  He is also a good bad-weather player, and I like that he was T-5th in Hawaii last year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

You have to go through lots of players very carefully to find a combination of making lots of cuts and the potential for doing well this week in very windy conditions.  I see C.T. Pan at $7,300, he does make cuts and averages 57 DraftKings points per event.  Also, I like Kevin Yu at $7,300 because in his limited play on the PGA Tour has done good things.  Nate Lashley at $7,000 is also worth watching, he is hit and miss making 16 of his last 28 starts, but he has eight top-25s in them, and you never know if he can get hot and win.  Brian Gay at $6,700 has not played well since he finished T-12th in Bermuda last year, but he plays well in this event and is worth a stab in the dark.  Scott Brown at $6,600 is a good player on courses by oceans, and have to think he will be fired up to play well this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Bermuda Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• So what vital stats is essential at Port Royal GC?  This is the shortest course on the PGA Tour, and short hitters that keep it safe off the tee seem to do better than bombers  Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because there are no real marquee players that you know of. Yes, the field does have PGA Tour winners, DP World Tour winners, and major champions.  The odds of them winning is slim or none; the person you least expect will win.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Maybe.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.