BlogDP World Championship, Dubai Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week is the end of the 2021 European Tour season.  Now, this tour is in flex right now.  For over 20 years, its primary source of revenue is when the Ryder Cup is played on a European venue.  In principle, this happens every four years, but it has stretched out another year with the pandemic.  For the last few years, money has been tight, so much so that they now have signed an alliance with the PGA Tour to get help from the America Tour.  We saw the fruit of that agreement with the co-sanctioning of three events over the summer.  The first is the European Tour Scottish Open. The other two are the PGA Tour Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship.  The big battle ahead for both tours is the LIV Golf.  They made a big dent to the PGA Tour as that tour banned players from participating in PGA Tour events.  The European Tour didn’t Institute the same kind of ban, and players have been able to play in several DP World Tour events.

About the rest of the year.

This is the last event left on the calendar year.  There is a week off for Thanksgiving, so for marquee names, they are off resting on some sunny beach.  Then the Hero Challenge is returning again in the Bahamas with Tiger Woods playing.  Other than that, we are going into a quiet period in the game, and there will be very little interest between now and the Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first week of January.  The European Tour ends its 2022 season in Dubai and goes straight into the 2023 season, with the Joburg Open playing the same week as the Australian PGA Championship.  The event has been part of the European Tour since 2016 and was played last year but not part of the European Tour schedule.  But it’s back next week and has a good field with Cameron Smith, Ryan Fox, and Adam Scott to name a few.  At the same time, the Joburg Open is being played in South Africa and doesn’t have that great of a field, mostly of South African players.  The first week of December has the Hero World Challenge, and the European Tour will have the Australian Open, for the first time co-sanctioned with the Australian Tour and the South African Open.  After that is the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa, and then the following week, the AfrAsia Mauritius Open.  As for us, I am taking the next week off and returning for a preview of the Hero Challenge.  We will also get ready for the 2023 season with some new stuff that we will introduce at Kapalua. This is your time to send your ideas for things you like to see in the future, remember you can get me at Golfersal@aol.com or Sal@Golfstats.com

This week

Have to say that this week’s field for the DP World, Dubai is one of the best fields they have ever gotten.  Unfortunately, three players, including the defending champion Collin Morikawa, didn’t come.  Will Zalatoris has been hurt since the Tour Championship and Thomas Pieters is not in the field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by five players: Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson.  All of them except Stenson are in the field.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Two essential elements come across in the previous 13 winners.  First is driving distance, nine of the 13 winners were in the top ten while three (Jon Rahm in 2017, Rory McIlroy in 2015, and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Last year’s winner Collin Morikawa ranked 10th.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year winner Collin Morikawa was T-4th, 2020 champion Matt Fitzpatrick was T-6th, 2019 champion Jon Rahm was 1st, 2018 Danny Willett was T-3rd, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball well and straight from tee to green.  Last year Matt Fitzpatrick was T-6th in Greens hit, 1st in fairways hit, and T-8th in putting.  In 2019 Jon Rahm was T-7th in fairways hit, 1st in greens hit, and T-11th in putting.
• All of the par-5s are easy, last year’s winner Collin Morikawa was 10 under, the 2020 winner Matt Fitzpatrick was 8 under, 2019 winner Jon Rahm was 13 under, the best of anyone in tournament history. 2018 winner Danny Willett was 12 under, in 2017 Rahm was 8 under while Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them in 2016,  In 2015, McIlroy was 9 under on them, and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also, at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011, while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
• Surprisingly all the winners have played the par 4s well; last year, Morikawa was 7 under, the same for 2000 winner Fitzpatrick, Rahm in 2019 was 4 under,  Willett in 2018 was 4 under, in 2017, Rahm was 12 under, while in 2016 Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under, while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009, while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
• There is zero chance of rain in the next week, and the wind will be moderate, between 11 and 14 mph each day.  Again look for low scores, as the temperature will be in the high 80s each day.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,000
• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Viktor Hovland – $10,300
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,100
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,900
• Shane Lowry – $9,700
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,500
• Jordan Smith – $9,300
• Ryan Fox – $9,100
• Rasmus Hojgaard – $9,000

I will put more resources into this event than the RSM.  I think I have a better chance because I understand European Tour players better, and the outcome always seems to have a better result with marquee names doing ok.  The only problem, the DraftKings games aren’t that big, with big prizes and games worth playing, oh well.  The first choice by DraftKings is Rory McIlroy at $11,000; there is a great reason for that. He has won on this course twice and was runner-up once.  On top of that, he has played well since winning the Tour Championship he was T-2nd at the BMW PGA, 4th at the Italian Open, T-4th at the Dunhill Links, and won at his last start the CJ Cup.  The second choice is Jon Rahm at $10,800; frankly, he could win.  He has won twice in three starts in this event and T-4th in his other start, so he likes the course.  In his last three starts, he finished T-2nd at the BMW PGA, Won the Spanish Open, and was T-4th at the CJ Cup, so I think he is the favorite in my mind.  Viktor Hovland is $10,300, but despite his one Dubai start being a T-3rd in 2020, he has not played his best.  Sure, it’s not bad, T-5th at the Zozo Championship, T-21st at the CJ Cup, and T-10th in Mayakoba, he has played in two DP World Tour events of late and was T-5th at the BMW PGA and T-34th at the Italian Open.  Still, he isn’t a great pick with so many others around him.  Next is Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,100, he has two wins in this event and was runner-up last year.  Despite not being that great the last couple of months, other than losing a playoff at the Italian Open, you have to respect his great record on the Jumeirah course.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,900, has had his moments in this event, he was runner-up in 2019.  But other than that, his record has been spotty, with only one top-ten finish (T-10th in 2020).  Still, you have to give him some respect, he won last week in the Nedbank and was T-4th at the CJ Cup.  The same with Shane Lowry at $9,700 in nine Dubai starts does have a runner-up in 2017, but he has played well of late, including a win at the BMW PGA Championship.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,500, has also had his moments on the Jumeirah course in eight starts, he has four top-tens, including a runner-up in 2016.  In the last couple of months has struggled but was 8th in Italy and T-7th at the Dunhill Links.  Jordan Smith at $9,300 is a no for me, his best finish in four Dubai starts is T-12th in 2018.  Now he won the Portugal Masters a few weeks ago and was T-13th at the Nedbank, but I still don’t think that is good for him.  Ryan Fox at $9,100, doesn’t have a great record on the Jumeirah Course in two starts but in his last four starts won the Dunhill Links, was T-4th at Mallorca  and 2nd last week at the Nedbank.  Rasmus Hojgaard at $9,000 is a no, he was T-27th in this event last year and T-51st the year before.  He was T-8th last week at the Nedbank, 5th at the Andalucia Masters, and runner-up at the Cazoo Open, but I just don’t think he will play well on the Jumeirah Course.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Robert MacIntyre at $8,600 is a thought.  Last year, he was T-4th in this event and won the Italian Open in September.  But since then hasn’t been that great, but you go with him off of his good start in Dubai last year.  Antoine Rozner at $8,500 is a thought, yes, his record in two Dubai starts is not great, best T-36th.  But he has three top-ten finishes in his last eight starts, including 4th place finishes in Switzerland and St. Andrews.  Adrian Otaegui at $8,300, is a good choice in three Dubai starts, was T-4th in 2018, and won the Andalucia Masters.  Yannik Paul at $7,700 is a good choice, yes playing in Dubai for the first time, but he has been ok of late and won at the Mallorca Open.  Gavin Green at $7,600 is a good choice because he is hot right now.  Coming into Dubai, he was T-11th at the Mallorca Open, 2nd at the Portugal Masters, and 7th at the Nedbank.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the DP World

In looking at some bargains, one has to be Richie Ramsay at $7,400, he was 4th last week at the Nedbank and has a lot of experience playing in six DP World, his best finish being T-16th. Adri Arnaus at $7,100 he has a good record in Dubai, including a T-9th last year and T-10th the year before.  He hasn’t played well on the DP World Tour in months, but have to think that coming back to this course will help him.  Watch Sebastian Soderberg at $6,500, he has never played in this event but was T-5th last week in the Nedbank.  Want a guy with a lot of experience at Jumeirah is Rafa Cabrera Bello at $6,400, he has played in the event 11 times and was T-9th in 2014, but he never has played badly in this event and will get you a lot of points.  One last player with the same experience is Pablo Larrazabal at $6,100.  He has played in 8 DP Worlds, was 10th once, and has made his last three cuts.  Also has potential, he won twice in March and April.

*So, who are my six DraftKings picks for this week?

• Rory McIlroy $11,000
• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Adrian Otaegui – $8,200
• Richie Ramsay – $7,400
• Rafa Cabrera Bello – $6,400
• Pablo Larrazabal – $6,100