BlogThe RSM Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

About the rest of the year.

This is the last event left on the calendar year.  There is a week off for Thanksgiving, so for marquee names, they are off resting on some sunny beach.  Then the Hero Challenge is returning again in the Bahamas with Tiger Woods playing.  Other than that, we are going into a quiet period in the game, and there will be very little interest between now and the Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first week of January.  The European Tour ends its 2022 season in Dubai and goes straight into the 2023 season with both the Joburg Open in South Africa playing the same week as the Australian PGA Championship.  The event has been part of the European Tour since 2016 and was played last year but not part of the European Tour schedule.  But it’s back next week and has a good field with Cameron Smith, Ryan Fox, and Adam Scott to name a few.  At the same time, the Joburg Open is being played in South Africa and doesn’t have that great of a field, mostly of South African players.  The first week of December has the Hero World Challenge, and the European Tour will have the Australian Open, for the first time co-sanction with the Australian Tour and the South African Open.  After that is the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa, and then the following week, the AfrAsia Mauritius Open.  As for us, I am taking the next week off and returning for a preview of the Hero Challenge.  We will also get ready for the 2023 season with some new stuff that we will introduce at Kapalua. This is your time to send your ideas for things you like to see in the future, remember you can get me at Golfersal@aol.com or Sal@Golfstats.com

Big disappointment

Also sad when the highest rank player in the field withdraws on Tuesday.  That just happened last weeks winning Tony Finau withdrew from the RSM, citing an injury.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

The RSM Classic

The RSM Classic is an event in a small resort town or, should we say, an island in Georgia, which has been well-received since it started in 2010.  Davis Love III got behind it, and his charities are the benefactors of this event.  Love also gets behind the tournament to get his friends and fellow players to attend.  The event also has a great sponsor in RSM, who is a tax and consulting firm.  The good thing is that folks like Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Harris English, Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, and Brian Harman, who live in Sea Island, are playing.  This event has been held at different times during the fall swing, but again this year will be the last fall event for this fall season.  Six years ago, the field was increased from 132 players to 156 as another course (the Plantation) is used in the first two rounds, so players are on the Seaside Course for three rounds.

Seaside Course information:

• Sea Island, Ga.
• 7,005 yards     Par 35-35–70

The Seaside course is part of the three courses at Sea Island Golf Club.  The Seaside course, which was the venue of the McGladreys and then changed to the RSM Classic, is a classic Harry Colt and Charles Alison design dating from 1929. Tom Fazio completed a renovation in 1999. It’s another of those hidden gems that not many people know about, it’s a true Scottish links course near the Atlantic with ocean views that plays fast and firm.

The main challenges could be in the greens, which are nearly impossible to read. The layout features other notable challenges like the bunkering, which is old fashion and truly memorable. They offer various sizes and shapes, but they are all strategically placed to deliver a formidable test for even the most experienced players.

The first nine goes out and back counterclockwise, while the second nine follow a clockwise direction. Each of the four par-3s faces its unique direction, which is unique for any course, so players get a different feel on each par-3 when it’s windy, that is always the case at Sea Island.

The course meanders through marshlands and lakes, with water or marshes coming into play on most holes.  There are only 40 sand bunkers on the course, but they are all in strategic spots to catch drives and wayward shots to the greens that are an average size of 7,000 square feet.  The course has bermudagrass all through it, with a 72.3 rating and a slope of 137.

It’s been the venue for some significant amateur competitions over the years, including the US Senior Amateur and the US Senior Women’s Amateur.

Plantation Course informational

• Sea Island, Ga.
• 7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72

The Plantation is the first course at Sea Island, it was a nine-hole course that opened in 1928.  Built by Walter Travis, it opened when a ferry service was first introduced to bring people over to Sea Island.  A year later, the Seaside course was built.  The land on which the course was built was a working plantation.  Some of the oak trees that are on the course were planted over two hundred years ago.  In 1998, Sea Island’s ownership brought Rees Jones to upgrade the original course.  The course was turned into a “parkland by the sea” course as it has views of the Atlantic but is parkland in nature.  It’s totally different than the Seaside Course, which is links nature.  The Plantation course will play at 7,060, has a 74.8 rating with a slope rating of 138, and to a par of 72.  It does have wide-open fairways, but lakes come into play on 10 of the 18 holes, so it will present a different challenge for players.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at the Sea Island Resort

This is based on the most vital stats from the Seaside course at the Sea Island Resort based on data from last year’s RSM Classic and using data from all the players in the field with stats from this year.
The Seaside course at the Sea Island Resort has been the RSM Classic’s home since the tournament started in 2010. The Seaside course is one of those gems that has been around since the early 1930s and was renovated in 1999. It’s a true Scottish Links close to the Atlantic with plenty of ocean views and windy conditions that give the players something that isn’t experienced much on the PGA Tour. To get a full field of 156 players with limited daylight this time of year, in 2016, the tournament used the neighboring Plantation Course for one of the four rounds, so 54 of the 72 holes are played on the Seaside Course. We will use just stats from the Seaside course for this statistical look. The course has bermudagrass all through it, with a 72.3 rating and a slope of 137.

Last year the Seaside course played to a 68.97 average score (a full shot under its par 70) and was the 33rd toughest course of the 50 courses used last year. (the plantation course, used for one round played to a 71.34 average, but since it’s a par 72, it was three-quarters of a shot under par and was the 36th hardest course) In 2021 the course played to a 68.69 average score (a full shot under its par 70) and was the 39th toughest course of the 51 courses used last year. (the plantation course, used for one round played to a 70.69 average, but since it’s a par 72, it was a shot and a quarter under par and was the 25th hardest course) The wind is an important factor in if the course will play tough or not, the last two years, the wind blew 10 to 15mph every day. In 2019 when the course played to a 68.84 average, the wind blew 5 to 10 mph average. In 2018 the course played to a 69.24 average, and the winds blew 10 to 15 mph. In 2017 the course played to a 68.89 average, the lowest the course has ever played, one of the reasons is the benign conditions due to the lack of wind. In 2014 when the wind blew, the course played to a 70.25 scoring average, the hardest it has ever played. Conditions for this week are calling for windy conditions each day, it being 13 mph Thursday through Saturday and calmer to 9 mph on Sunday. Weather will be close to perfect for this year’s event, in the high 50s each day, with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing 10 to 12 mph each day.

This course is a lot like British Open rota courses. Like at St. Andrews last summer, each day had wind of 8 to 20 mph, making the course play tougher. But if you can get the conditions at Royal Birkdale in 2018, the lack of wind helps make the course a bit of a pushover for players since the fairways are very generous with very little rough. So with the short yardage, the greens are easy targets, as many birdies are made on a course that only has two par 5s. In looking at this event’s twelve winners, except for Charles Howell III, are short hitters to medium length off the tee. An example of that is last year’s winner Talor Gooch. He was 140th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee for the year, ranking 64th in driving distance and 69th in fairway accuracy. The year before, winner Robert Streb really proved this point. For the year (2021) he was 164th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee as he ranked T-139th in driving distance and 131st in fairway accuracy. In 2020 Tyler Duncan was T-87th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee as he ranked 173rd in driving distance and 6th in fairway accuracy The same for shotmaking, of the twelve past champions, only 2019 winner Charles Howell III is the only great ball striker. So basically, the course allows a person that hits it short and is an average shotmaker to win. But in looking at the stats, the thing that does strike out is that scrambling and putting is what has made most of the champions at the RSM Classic.
We think that this is still important, so below is a look at the last nine winners and how they ranked in those key stats on or around the greens for the week:

Scrambling
2014 – Chris Kirk was 5th
2015 – Robert Streb was 25th
2016 – Kevin Kisner was 3rd
2017 – Mac Hughes was 2nd
2018 – Austin Cook was T-1st
2019 – Charles Howell III was T-70th
2020 – Tyler Duncan was 1st
2021 – Robert Streb was 5th
2022 – Talor Gooch was 4th

Strokes gained putting
2014 – Chris Kirk was 11th
2015 – Robert Streb was 2nd
2016 – Kevin Kisner was 3rd
2017 – Mac Hughes was 3rd
2018 – Austin Cook was 13th
2019 – Charles Howell was 24th
2020 – Tyler Duncan was 14th
2021 – Robert Streb was 9th
2022 – Talor Gooch was 6th

Overall putting average
2014 – Chris Kirk was 10th
2015 – Robert Streb was T-1st
2016 – Kevin Kisner was 3rd
2017 – Mac Hughes was 1st
2018 – Austin Cook was T-12th
2019 – Charles Howell was T-54th
2020 – Tyler Duncan was T-10th
2021 – Robert Streb was T-16th
2022 – Talor Gooch was T-16th

One-putts
2014 – Chris Kirk was T-27th
2015 – Robert Streb was T-1st
2016 – Kevin Kisner was 3rd
2017 – Mac Hughes was 1st
2018 – Austin Cook was T-8th
2019 – Charles Howell was T-45th
2020 – Tyler Duncan was T-34th
2021 – Robert Streb was T-13th
2022 – Talor Gooch was T-16th

Putting inside 10 feet
2014 – Chris Kirk was T-33rd
2015 – Robert Streb was T-6th
2016 – Kevin Kisner was T-8th
2017 – Mac Hughes was 26th
2018 – Austin Cook was T-34th
2019 – Charles Howell was T-53rd
2020 – Tyler Duncan was T-20th
2021 – Robert Streb was T-12th
2022 – Talor Gooch was T-23rd

Average distance of putts made
2014 – Chris Kirk was 10th
2015 – Robert Streb was 3rd
2016 – Kevin Kisner was 5th
2017 – Mac Hughes was 1st
2018 – Austin Cook was T-17th
2019 – Charles Howell was 17th
2020 – Tyler Duncan was 45th
2021 – Robert Streb was 13th
2022 – Talor Gooch was 6th

One other stat that we feel is important is something that is rarely looked at but should on this course, Strokes Gained Total, which basically looks at all the number of strokes for the player on the same course and event
2014 – Chris Kirk was 1st
2015 – Robert Streb was T-1st
2016 – Kevin Kisner was 1st
2017 – Mac Hughes was T-2nd
2018 – Austin Cook was 1st
2019 – Charles Howell was T-13th
2020 – Tyler Duncan was 1st
2021 – Robert Streb was T-11th
2022 – Talor Gooch was 1st

So we see how a long hitter like Howell has broken things up a bit, but that happens in golf, and you have to believe that what has happened so many times in the past will happen again this year, the good scrambler and putter will be the guy to pick this week.

So in looking at our four categories, we are putting a lot of efficiencies in those stats around and on the greens. Our first stat is Strokes Gained Putting because this is the most important stat that everyone has figures on showing who is putting the best. Now courses don’t average Strokes Gained stats, so we looked at the overall putting average for the seaside course, and last year it ranked 4th on the PGA Tour. Our 2nd stat is scrambling because again, the past winners showed the importance of this stat, and it ranked 20th best on the PGA Tour last year (remember, that means players do very well in getting it up and down). The third category that we are using is greens hit, this shows the importance of making sure to hit greens, it ranked 47th last year (again showing a lot of players hit greens, only three courses, so more greens hit). Our last category is birdie average because it’s important to make a lot of them last year the Seaside course averaged 3.66 birdies per round and ranked T-25th last year.

*Strokes Gained Putting: A way to see how many strokes gained or lost putting

*Scrambling: Who gets it up and down the most of anyone in the field

*Greens in Regulation: How many greens are hit from the fairway.

*Birdie Average: Who has the lowest average of birdies per tournament

140 of the 156 Players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

#	Name	*Strokes Gained Putting	*Scrambling	*Greens in Regulation	*Birdie Average	Total Rank All Categories	DraftKings Salary
1	Brian Harman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	76	7	20	17	120	10300
2	Tony Finau (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) (WD)	2	50	67	7	126	11200
3	Tom Hoge (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	23	77	9	25	134	9800
4	Brendon Todd (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	41	45	89	17	192	8000
5	Jason Day (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	91	23	19	75	208	9400
6	Justin Lower (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	46	100	53	11	210	7300
7	Taylor Montgomery (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	11	40	141	27	219	9600
8	Mackenzie Hughes (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	9	18	141	54	222	8600
9	Andrew Putnam (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	35	8	58	124	225	7900
10	Justin Rose (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	6	15	67	144	232	8200

Here is a link to all player stats for the RSM Classic

DraftKings tips

First, let’s look at the field and the top 40 who have the best average Draftkings earnings since the start of the 2022 season (must have 8 or more events)

82.9 points per event – Taylor Montgomery in 8 events – Cost $9,600 (Has made 7 of 8 cuts)

75.0 points per event – Tony Finau in 27 events – Cost $11,200 (Has made 21 of 27 cuts) (WD)

74.1 points per event – Ben Griffin in 8 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 6 of 8 cuts)

70.2 points per event – Byeong Hun An in 9 events – Cost $7,200 (Has made 7 of 9 cuts)

69.0 points per event – Seamus Power in 31 events – Cost $10,500 (Has made 20 of 31 cuts)

68.8 points per event – Taylor Pendrith in 24 events – Cost $8,500 (Has made 19 of 24 cuts)

67.2 points per event – Matt Kuchar in 23 events – Cost $8,900 (Has made 18 of 23 cuts)

67.2 points per event – Sahith Theegala in 37 events – Cost $8,800 (Has made 30 of 37 cuts)

65.9 points per event – Keith Mitchell in 30 events – Cost $9,300 (Has made 23 of 30 cuts)

65.8 points per event – Brian Harman in 30 events – Cost $10,300 (Has made 24 of 30 cuts)

65.5 points per event – Davis Riley in 35 events – Cost $8,100 (Has made 25 of 35 cuts)

64.0 points per event – Brendon Todd in 30 events – Cost $8,000 (Has made 22 of 30 cuts)

63.8 points per event – Justin Lower in 30 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 20 of 30 cuts)

63.7 points per event – Chris Kirk in 30 events – Cost $7,600 (Has made 22 of 30 cuts)

63.3 points per event – S.H. Kim in 8 events – Cost $7,500 (Has made 6 of 8 cuts)

63.0 points per event – Jason Day in 24 events – Cost $9,400 (Has made 16 of 24 cuts)

62.6 points per event – Tom Hoge in 37 events – Cost $9,800 (Has made 23 of 37 cuts)

62.4 points per event – Justin Rose in 20 events – Cost $8,200 (Has made 14 of 20 cuts)

62.4 points per event – Troy Merritt in 31 events – Cost $7,400 (Has made 24 of 31 cuts)

62.3 points per event – Joel Dahmen in 32 events – Cost $9,200 (Has made 24 of 32 cuts)

62.2 points per event – Patrick Rodgers in 34 events – Cost $8,700 (Has made 23 of 34 cuts)

61.9 points per event – Nick Hardy in 26 events – Cost $7,600 (Has made 17 of 26 cuts)

61.4 points per event – Denny McCarthy in 35 events – Cost $9,100 (Has made 27 of 35 cuts)

60.9 points per event – J.J. Spaun in 34 events – Cost $7,800 (Has made 24 of 34 cuts)

60.7 points per event – Kevin Kisner in 25 events – Cost $8,300 (Has made 14 of 25 cuts)

60.4 points per event – Scott Stallings in 34 events – Cost $7,600 (Has made 20 of 34 cuts)

60.3 points per event – Aaron Rai in 34 events – Cost $7,800 (Has made 24 of 34 cuts)

60.2 points per event – Taylor Moore in 34 events – Cost $7,400 (Has made 22 of 34 cuts)

60.0 points per event – Wyndham Clark in 36 events – Cost $8,000 (Has made 26 of 36 cuts)

59.6 points per event – Andrew Putnam in 37 events – Cost $7,900 (Has made 25 of 37 cuts)

59.5 points per event – Adam Svensson in 37 events – Cost $7,200 (Has made 25 of 37 cuts)

59.4 points per event – Greyson Sigg in 35 events – Cost $7,500 (Has made 23 of 35 cuts)

59.2 points per event – Dean Burmester in 9 events – Cost $6,300 (Has made 5 of 9 cuts)

58.8 points per event – Russell Knox in 35 events – Cost $7,000 (Has made 24 of 35 cuts)

57.7 points per event – Austin Smotherman in 31 events – Cost $6,800 (Has made 20 of 31 cuts)

57.6 points per event – Lee Hodges in 36 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 22 of 36 cuts)

57.3 points per event – Sam Ryder in 36 events – Cost $7,000 (Has made 20 of 36 cuts)

57.1 points per event – Brandon Wu in 33 events – Cost $7,100 (Has made 18 of 33 cuts)

57.1 points per event – Mackenzie Hughes in 31 events – Cost $8,600 (Has made 20 of 31 cuts)

56.9 points per event – Stephan Jaeger in 37 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 20 of 37 cuts)

 

Lots go a bit deeper, let’s look at those that played in the RSM last year and just their totals for the eight events in the 2023 season

91.5 points per event – Taylor Montgomery in 6 events – Cost $9,600 (Has made 6 of 6 cuts)

91.3 points per event – Seamus Power in 6 events – Cost $10,500 (Has made 5 of 6 cuts)

90.8 points per event – Mackenzie Hughes in 5 events – Cost $8,600 (Has made 5 of 5 cuts)

89.3 points per event – Brian Harman in 4 events – Cost $10,300 (Has made 4 of 4 cuts)

85.5 points per event – Tom Hoge in 6 events – Cost $9,800 (Has made 5 of 6 cuts)

81.8 points per event – Will Gordon in 6 events – Cost $7,700 (Has made 6 of 6 cuts)

78.9 points per event – Nick Hardy in 6 events – Cost $7,600 (Has made 6 of 6 cuts)

77.7 points per event – Greyson Sigg in 6 events – Cost $7,500 (Has made 5 of 6 cuts)

77.6 points per event – Matt Kuchar in 4 events – Cost $8,900 (Has made 4 of 4 cuts)

77.1 points per event – Joel Dahmen in 7 events – Cost $9,200 (Has made 6 of 7 cuts)

76.7 points per event – J.J. Spaun in 6 events – Cost $7,800 (Has made 6 of 6 cuts)

76.1 points per event – Patrick Rodgers in 8 events – Cost $8,700 (Has made 7 of 8 cuts)

75.3 points per event – Ben Griffin in 6 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 5 of 6 cuts)

73.8 points per event – Dean Burmester in 4 events – Cost $6,300 (Has made 3 of 4 cuts)

73.3 points per event – Aaron Rai in 7 events – Cost $7,800 (Has made 6 of 7 cuts)

72.6 points per event – Justin Lower in 7 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 5 of 7 cuts)

72.5 points per event – Hayden Buckley in 6 events – Cost $7,400 (Has made 4 of 6 cuts)

71.5 points per event – Aaron Baddeley in 3 events – Cost $6,500 (Has made 2 of 3 cuts)

71.4 points per event – Danny Willett in 4 events – Cost $7,000 (Has made 3 of 4 cuts)

71.2 points per event – Andrew Putnam in 8 events – Cost $7,900 (Has made 7 of 8 cuts)

71.2 points per event – Denny McCarthy in 7 events – Cost $9,100 (Has made 6 of 7 cuts)

71.1 points per event – Scott Stallings in 4 events – Cost $7,600 (Has made 4 of 4 cuts)

70.1 points per event – Brendon Todd in 6 events – Cost $8,000 (Has made 4 of 6 cuts)

 

So let’s make some picks for the RSM going off of the above lists and pick six players, which would be winners?

Remember, with a $50,000 cap, that means we have to average $8,333 per player:

This week we will enter the $300K pitch and putt game with a cost of $20

• Seamus Power – $10,500
• Taylor Montgomery – $8,500
• Taylor Pendrith – $8,500
• Will Gordon – $7,700
• Ben Griffin – $7,300
• Dean Burmester – $6,300

DraftKings picks from last week.

Based on a version of the above chart, I made my six DraftKings picks last week, and it’s time to see how I did.

The six players I picked had mixed results, but I didn’t make any money at the end of the day.  In the $300K flop shot, I was one of 17,647 entries, with my guys ranking at 4,192.  The game cost $20.

The winner scored 538.5 points, while my six guys earned just 372.50 points.  I was 7 points out of getting a payday.  One of the biggest reasons I didn’t make any money, I had Justin Lower who missed the cut.  The sad thing about Lower, he shot 69 but was two over on the back to miss the cut by two shots.  On the other end of the Spectrum, Ben Griffin, who I paid $6,800, finished T-16th but was very productive with 74.5 points.

So here are the results of my six guys from the Houston Open:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,500 finished T-9th with 78.5 points
• Maverick McNealy – $9,400 finished T-27th with 61.5 points
• Will Gordon – $7,700 finished T-43rd with 59.5 points
• Justin Lower – $7,400 missed the cut with just 27.5 points
• Ben Griffin – $6,800 finished T-16th with 74.5 points
• Justin Rose – $7,200 finished T-9th with 70.5 points

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $11,200  (WD Injury)
• Seamus Power – $10,500
• Brian Harman – $10,300
• Tom Hoge – $9,800
• Taylor Montgomery – $9,600
• Jason Day – 9,400
• Kevin Mitchell – $9,300
• Joel Dahmen – $9,200
• Denny McCarthy – $9,100
• Matthew NeSmith – $9,000

Not the greatest of fields, with only seven top-50 world-rank players in the field.  So this week will be a bit harder because there are not as many marquee names.  First, I have mixed emotions about Tony Finau at $11,200.  The negative is that of the twelve winners, only one has hit it a long way, like Finau.  This isn’t a course for long hitters, it takes finesse, good putting, and scrambling, which isn’t at the top of Finau’s list.  I didn’t like him last week in Houston; look what happened: he won.  Can he do it again, remember, over the summer, he won the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage in back-to-back weeks, so I have to think it’s possible for that to happen again.  He has played once at RSM and finished T-14th in 2014, so despite his large price tag, he will probably earn you 75 points for the week.  Guess it doesn’t matter since Finau just withdrew on Tuesday.  I do like Seamus Power at $10,500.  He won in Bermuda and was T-3rd at Mayakoba.  On top of that, he was T-4th last year at the RSM, so seems to be a good bet.  On the surface Brian Harman at $10,300 doesn’t look that great, but he has been very consistent, making his last eight cuts and finishing 2nd at the Mayakoba Classic.  He doesn’t hit the ball far but does it straight, which should be good for him if he gets hot with the putter.  Tom Hoge at $9,800 has been a good pick until the Mayakoba when he missed the cut.  Still, he has been good the last two years, but I won’t take him because his price is too high.  Taylor Montgomery at $9,600, has been the new star on the PGA Tour after playing great last year on the Korn Ferry.  Will be playing for the first time at the RSM, but his putting is good and should carry him over this week.  Jason Day at 9,400 is another of those guys looking to make a comeback, he missed the cut last year at the RSM but did finish T-12th the year before.  He has been good lately in his last four starts, have been in the top 25 in all, and has averaged 89.5 points in those four events.  So yes, think about him.  Kevin Mitchell at $9,300 is not my first, second, or even tenth choice.  Has played a lot at the RSM Open and was T-12th last year, he was T-9th last week in Houston, but he is still a no for me.  Joel Dahmen at $9,200 is priced too high for what you get.  Sure he has made his last five cuts, was T-3rd at Mayakoba and T-9th in Houston, but he won’t get you the points you need for his price tag.  The same with Denny McCarthy at $9,100, he is a great putter and was T-10th last year at the RSM, but he just lacks much firepower.  Now in looking at Matthew NeSmith at $9,000, people will disregard him, but he has played well in his three RSM starts and has three top-tens in his last four starts.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I am a bit intrigued by Matt Kuchar, priced at $8,900.  Has played a lot at the RSM and has played ok in 2023, making all three cuts.  In his last start at Mayakoba earned 89.5 Draftkings points.  We still like Mackenzie Hughes, who is priced at $8,600.  He made the cut in all his 2023 starts and won at Sanderson Farms.  Taylor Pendrith at $8,500 has also ranked many DraftKing points and played consistently, making the cut in his last 12 PGA Tour starts.  I liked Justin Rose last week and like Justin Rose this week at $8,200.  He was T-12th last year at the RSM, and his game looks to be on the comeback path.  Brendon Todd at $8,000, does get a lot of DraftKings points, and in 2023 has averaged around 70 points per event.  Harris English at $7,700, is a person to think about, in his comeback from injury has gotten more consistent, and he is close to a breakout.  Will Gordon at $7,700, is also a player who makes many cuts and makes rack-up points.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the RSM Classic

Could this be Hayden Buckley’s week at just $7,400?  He has played great in 2023, and feel this could be his week.  The same with Ben Griffin at $7,300, who has racked up a lot of cuts in 2023 and was T-3rd in Bermuda.  Russell Knox at $7,000 is the perfect price for a guy like Knox, who makes many cuts.  One big bargain is Dean Burmester at $6,300, he has played well in 2023.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at The RSM Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

• This is a true links course, so players will have to be able to play firm, fast fairways, and be good in the wind.  Hitting into the greens tends to be very tricky, and for those that miss the greens, getting it up and down is key.  In looking at the first three winners, they aren’t among the leaders in scrambling, Slocum in 2010 was T20th, Crane in 2011 was T41st, and Gainey was T35th in 2012.  But the three have one big stat in common, and that is they all led the scrambling from the fringe stat, while 2014 winner Chris Kirk was 5th in scrambling, the 2015 winner Robert Streb was 25th, the 2016 winner Kevin Kisner was 3rd, the 2017 winner Mac Hughes was 2nd in scrambling and 1st in scrambling from the fringe and 2018 winner Austin Cook was T-1st in Scrambling so this is an important stat.  In 2020 Tyler Duncan was 1st in scrambling so that is a good stat to look at, 2021 winner Robert Streb was 5th in scrambling.  Last year Talor Gooch was 4th  For those wondering if I forgot 2019 winner Charles Howell, he was the worst of the winners ranking T-70th in scrambling  In going to the page on Golfstats it’s the leaders from this year’s scrambling category.  Look, and you will see guys like William McGirt, Matt Kuchar. Brian Gay, Brian Harman, and Andrew Putnam are in the top ten, they could be sleeper picks for this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• One of two stats is key, you either have to hit a lot of greens or putt really well.  Look at the eleven winners, Slocum in 2010 was T7th in greens hit and 39th in Strokes Gained putting.  Crane in 2011 was T26th in greens hit, but 2nd in Strokes gained putting, while Gainey in 2012 was T23rd in greens hit but 3rd in Strokes Gained putting.  In 2014 Chris Kirk was T15th in greens hit and T11th in Strokes Gained putting, while in 2015 Robert Streb was T-47th in greens hit but 2nd in Strokes Gained putting.  In 2016 Kevin Kisner was T-9th in Greens hit and 4th in Strokes Gained putting, while Mac Hughes was T-11th in greens hit and 3rd in Strokes Gained putting in 2017.  2018 champion Austin Cook was T-2nd in Greens hit, and 13th in Strokes Gained putting.  2019 winner Charles Howell III was 1st in Greens hit and 24th in Strokes Gained putting, So you can see what is important to win this week.  2021 winner Robert Streb hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked T-7th, while last year’s winner Talor Gooch was T-4th in Greens hit and 6th in Strokes Gained Putting
• All twelve winners had one thing in common: the ability to play the par 4s.  In 2010 Slocum was 11 under on them, the next closest player was 9 under.  In 2011, Crane was 12 under, the next closet was 11 under, and in 2012 Gainey was 12 under the next closet was 11 under.  In 2014 Chris Kirk was 6 under, in 2015, Robert Streb was 7 under the best for the week was 8 under.  In 2016 Kevin Kisner was 15 under (the best of anyone in the history of the event), in 2018 Mac Hughes was 9 under on the par 4s, in 2019 Austin Cook was 11 under and 2019 Charles Howell was 9 under. In 2020 Tyler Duncan was 7 under on the Par 4s, while Robert Streb was 10 under on the par 4s.  Last year Talor Gooch was 10 under on the Par 4s, so if it’s Sunday and you’re looking for someone with the edge, look at that stat.
• Driving accuracy means nothing on the Seaside Course that makes sense since it’s a resort course.  Last year it was 44th, in 2020, it was 40th in 2019 it was 47th. In 2018 it was 48th, in 2017, 44th, in 2016, it was 47th, in 2015, it was 43rd, while in 2014, it was 42nd.  In 2012 it was 44th in driving accuracy, while it was T43rd in 2011 and 38th in 2010, so poor drivers could do well this week.
• Most people disregard putts per round, but this is important on this course.  As you don’t have to drive the ball straight on this course to succeed, you do have to take the least amount of putts.  In the putts per round category, Seaside was 4th last year and in 2020, T-6th in 2019, 6th in 2018,  7th in 2017, and 4th in 2016, 2015, and 2014.  It was 2nd in 2012 and 2011, and 3rd in 2010.  In a way, this is because it’s a resort course, but still, putting is important.
• Look for a good mix of players from Sea Island, Jacksonville, and Ponte Vedra to be in the field, a bit of local knowledge.
• We find a completely Bermuda course, which is important because it takes a special player to win on Bermuda grass.  Last year’s winner Talor Gooch, was born and still lives in Oklahoma and played with Bermuda grass. Robert Streb was the winner for the second time in 2021.  He was born and raised in Oklahoma and lives in Kansas, but he is still a player that loves Burmuda. In 2020 Tyler Duncan was a Florida guy living in Ponte Vedra Beach so we can see he plays a lot on Bermuda.  The same happened with 2019 winner Charles Howell III, who was from Orlando (via Augusta, Ga), in 2018, Austin Cook was from Arkansas, so both were used to Bermuda. Of course, Mac Hughes, who is from Canada and lives in Charlotte, ruined this stat, but in the other years, it was very interesting.  In 2016 Kevin Kisner won he was from up the road in Aiken, South Carolina, and knows how to play in Bermuda. Robert Streb won in 2015, and he is from Kansas, which has Bermuda grasses.  But previously, Chris Kirk (born and lives in Atlanta), Gainey (born and lives in South Carolina), and Slocum (born in Louisiana and lives in Georgia) are southern boys that have been around Bermuda all of their lives.  Ben Crane was born in Portland and went to school in Portland, Oregon, which isn’t a place to learn Bermuda, but look at Crane’s wins, three of the four have come on courses with Bermuda, and he does live in Texas today.  The point is, look for a player that does well on Bermuda courses.  Of course, Mac Hughes ruined the trend in 2017, but you have to think that someone born or raised in the North or Midwest has very little chance of winning.