BlogHero World Challenge Preview and Picks

The Buzz

So 2022 is ending, and the last individual event is the Hero World Challenge. This event started in 1999 as another off-season event. Back then, it was called the Silly Season, with half a dozen unofficial events, which were nothing more than a big money grab. 23 years later, the Hero World Challenge is the last end-of-the-season event left, mainly because Tiger Woods associated himself with the event. In 2016 the event moved to the Bahamas and one of the most exclusive resorts on the planet.

No Tiger

We were all looking forward to Tiger Woods returning to competitive golf this week, but he had to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He is still planning on playing in the Match next week and with his son at the PNC Championship. He has been replaced with RSM Classic winner Sepp Straka. 

Chasing World No. 1: 

With Rory McIlroy not playing this week, we thought that either Scheffler or Rahm could take over, but with the new way they are giving points, it looks like McIlroy will end the season #1. Rory played in the Bahamas last year but didn’t play at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This year it’s flipped. He isn’t playing in the Bahamas but will be in Maui the first week in January.

Seven new faces: 

Among the 20 players in the field, 14 have previously competed at the Hero World Challenge. The six first-timers have combined to win five times on the PGA Tour since the last time the tournament was played.

Here is how the six first-timers have done since December of last year: Cameron Young (Runner-up four times, including the British Open, he also had two top-three finishes). Corey Conners (Four top-tens, including a T-6th in the Masters, 3rd at the WGC Match Play). Max Homa (Won twice at Wells Fargo and Fortinet Championship). Sungjae Im (Eight top-tens, three runner-up finishes, and a T-2nd at the Tour Championship). Tom Kim (Played in his first PGA Tour event in May, got temporary membership and full membership by winning the Wyndham Championship. Two months later won again at the Shriners Children’s). Shane Lowry (Was 2nd at the Honda Classic, T-3rd at the Masters and RBC Heritage. Won the European BMW PGA Championship in September).  Last was Sepp Straka, who attended the event on Monday when Tiger withdrew.  He won in his last start at the RSM Classic.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Albany Golf Club

The course is part of a luxury resort community set on 600 oceanside acres in New Providence in The Bahamas.  The course, designed by Ernie Els and opened in 2010, is unique because it sits on an oceanfront site with the best weather in the Bahamas.  The course gets gentle breezes off the ocean to keep the temperature just around 80.  In its seventh year as host, the Ernie Els-designed Albany GC combines the best of links and desert features with windswept dunes and numerous scenic and strategically challenging water features.  The club has one of the finest practice faculties, which features a 400-yard driving range and plenty of chipping and putting greens.  The club also has state of the art swing-performance center.  So it only makes sense that many PGA Tour pros are members of Albany, including Els, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Trevor Immelman, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, and Tim Clark.  On top of that, Woods, Scott, Els, and Rose have a home in Albany.

Course information:

• Albany Golf Club
• New Providence, The Bahamas
• 7,414 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course can stretch to 7,400, but this week will play at 7,414.  It has five par 5s and 3s, Els took a flat site and dug out some water hazards, excavating sand from the deep-water channel, which became the resort’s marina.  The excavated material became sand dunes that separate the fairways and make the course look like it’s been on linksland for thousands of years.  The course is challenging for those playing this week in Albany, but low scores are the norm.  That’s because the course is in pristine shape.  Along with wide-open fairways, greens that allow players to attack the pin are the reason for the low scores. One element that makes it more challenging is the wind, which blows every day, but mostly around 10 mph.  When it blows, the course has some bite, but winds will be normal at 15 to 22 mph this week.

The secret to playing well at Albany Golf Club

This course has had an incredible six years.  It is intriguing that the winners weren’t the marquee players, which were favorites.  Each of the winners is players you wouldn’t believe could win. A perfect example is the last winner of the Hero, Viktor Hovland, and the previous winner Henrik Stenson.  They were not the favorites, but both played very well beating the favorite, last year, Hovland was a shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler, while Stenson looked like a superstar, beating Jon Rahm by a shot.  Unfortunately, both didn’t play that well after that, Hovland did win the Dubai Desert two months later and was great in the Florida swing but played terribly after the Players.  For Stenson But since Stenson’s win, he has only finished in the top 20 in three of his 50 starts.  He has since joined LIV Golf and won an event on that tour.  Like the other winners, Hideki Matsuyama finished dead last in 2016 and won it the next year.  So the key is to look at those in the field and see who has played well of late.  In 2018 Rickie Fowler won and has struggled.

Since this is an unofficial event, stats aren’t kept, so we have very little intel on the keys to winning.  In looking at five of the six champions at Albany, they all are great ball strikers.  The except is 2018 winner Rickie Fowler, who was a great putter and won thanks to the short stick.  You can’t go wrong with a player who is high in greens in regulation but look at those with Great Proximity to Hole numbers.  Also, look at players that have been on the cusp of winning and haven’t achieved many wins.  Look at players like Tom Kim, Max Homa, Cameron Young, and Matt Fitzpatrick over Justin Thomas, Rory Scottie Scheffler, and Collin Morikawa.  The only true favorite is Jon Rahm, who has had good luck at Albany Golf Club.

DraftKings tips

Let’s look at the field on their best average Draftkings earnings since the start of the 2022 season.

87.9 points per event – Scottie Scheffler in 28 events – Cost $10,900 (Has made 24 of 28 cuts)

86.9 points per event – Xander Schauffele in 22 events – Cost $9,900 (Has made 20 of 22 cuts)

84.4 points per event – Justin Thomas in 22 events – Cost $10,200 (Has made 20 of 22 cuts)

83.2 points per event – Tom Kim in 14 events – Cost $6,500 (Has made 13 of 14 cuts)

82.6 points per event – Jon Rahm in 20 events – Cost $10,700 (Has made 19 of 20 cuts)

78.5 points per event – Viktor Hovland in 24 events – Cost $8,700 (Has made 21 of 24 cuts)

78.4 points per event – Sungjae Im in 29 events – Cost $7,800 (Has made 25 of 29 cuts)

77.1 points per event – Max Homa in 27 events – Cost $6,600 (Has made 24 of 27 cuts)

75.0 points per event – Tony Finau in 27 events – Cost $9,300 (Has made 21 of 27 cuts)

74.3 points per event – Sam Burns in 27 events – Cost $7,200 (Has made 20 of 27 cuts)

72.4 points per event – Matt Fitzpatrick in 21 events – Cost $8,300 (Has made 18 of 21 cuts)

72.2 points per event – Billy Horschel in 24 events – Cost $6,100 (Has made 19 of 24 cuts)

72.1 points per event – Collin Morikawa in 22 events – Cost $6,900 (Has made 18 of 22 cuts)

70.8 points per event – Corey Conners in 28 events – Cost $6,300 (Has made 22 of 28 cuts)

70.8 points per event – Shane Lowry in 19 events – Cost $7,000 (Has made 16 of 19 cuts)

70.4 points per event – Cameron Young in 27 events – Cost $6,700 (Has made 20 of 27 cuts)

68.8 points per event – Jordan Spieth in 23 events – Cost $7,500 (Has made 18 of 23 cuts)

68.3 points per event – Tommy Fleetwood in 19 events – Cost $7,300 (Has made 16 of 19 cuts)

61.5 points per event – Kevin Kisner in 26 events – Cost $6,000 (Has made 15 of 26 cuts)

51.9 points per event – Sepp Straka in 39 events – Cost $6,200 (Has made 22 of 39 cuts)

So let’s make some picks for the Hero Challenge going off of the above lists and pick six players, which would be winners?

Remember, with a $50,000 cap that means we have to average $8,333 per player:

This week we will enter the $300K pitch and putt game with a cost of $20

• Jon Rahm – $10,700
• Justin Thomas – $10,200
• Viktor Hovland – $8,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $7,300
• Max Homa – $6,600
• Tom Kim – $8,700

DraftKings picks from two weeks ago at the RSM Classic.

The six players I picked had good results, as all six made the cut and made $45. In the $300K flop shot, I was one of 17,647 entries, with my guys ranking 350.  The game cost $20.

The winner scored 663 points, while my six guys earned 553.5 points, so I was 109.5 points off the winner.  Seamus Power was my top earner, finishing T-5th and winning 113.5 points.  Second was Taylor Montgomery, who finished T-25th and earned 100.5 points.  I had two players, Will Gordon and Taylor Pendrith finishing T-15th and earning a total of 190 points.  My worst pick was Dean Burmester, for who I only paid $6,300, and he finished T-54th earning 66.5 points.  To think I was only 33 points out of the top 100 in which I would have won $100.

So here are the results of my six guys:

Seamus Power – $10,500 finished T-5th with 113.5 points

Taylor Montgomery – $8,500 finished T-25th with 100.5 points

Will Gordon – $7,700 finished T-15th with 96 points

Taylor Pendrith – $8,500 finished T-15th with just 94 points

Ben Griffin – $7,300 finished T-29th with 83 points

Dean Burmester – $6,300 finished T-54th with 66.5 points

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $10,900
• Jon Rahm – $10,700
• Justin Thomas – $10,200
• Xander Schauffele – $9,900
• Tony Finau – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $8,700
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $8,300

Only 20 players in a non-cut event, boy, this is a dream come true.  Making the dream even better, only three of the 20 are over $10,000, while between $7,000 to $9,900 are only seven players.  For those under $7,000 is players like Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Max Homa, Tom Kim, and Billy Horschel, so yes we can pick many big-name players.  Still, as we told you above, this event hasn’t seen many marquee winners, so maybe that is why DraftKings priced things.  Now, this is all good news, but the bad news is that you better pick winners, I will say that the person with the most points will have five of his players in the top six.

Off the bat is Scottie Scheffler – $10,900, who I think Draftkings is giving us a big break.  Sure Scheffler was the runner-up last year, and he hasn’t played badly this year with a T-3rd at the Mayakoba and T-9th in Houston.  Still, I don’t think he will win and not even make it into the top three.  Now Jon Rahm at $10,700 is a better pick, he won at Albany in 2018 and was 2nd in 2019.  Now Rahm has gotten his moe-joe back after a poor 2022, he won the Spanish Open and the DP World Championship.  He was also T-4th at the CJ Cup, so he should be the favorite.  Justin Thomas at $10,200 is a good pick considering he has finished T5th in his last two starts at Albany.  He also makes a lot of DraftKings points averaging 84.4 over the last two years (22 events).  The big choice is between Thomas and Xander Schauffele at $9,900, I like Thomas, who has a better record than Schauffele at Albany.  Tony Finau at $9,300 is ok, he was 2nd at Albany in 2018 and averages 75 Draftkings points per event.  Many will pick Viktor Hovland at $8,700, he is the defending champion, and as you can see, even though I don’t like him, I picked him due to making 78.5 DraftKings points per event.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,300 is cheap when you consider he has played well of late with a T-5th at the DP World Championship and was T-13th at the CJ Cup.

*Players in that $6,000 to $7,800 price range, which ones are worth the money and get you maximum points?  

Of the bat, I see problems in Sungjae Im at $7,800, Jordan Spieth at $7,500, and Sam Burns at $7,200, who withdrew with an unknown injury at Houston.  I think that Tommy Fleetwood at $7,300 is a great bargain, he was T-3rd in this event in 2018.  Lately, his game has shined, he was T-4th at the CJ Cup, won the Nedbank Golf Challenge, and was T-5th at the DP World Dubai.  For this course, I like Shane Lowry at $7,000, even though he has never played in this event.  I like that he won at BMW PGA and does well in the wind.  I am skipping on Collin Morikawa at $6,900, he is not playing well.  The same with Cameron Young at $6,700 but I think he is perfect for the course and will break out of his funk.  Max Homa at $6,600 is a good pick for the price, the same with Tom Kim at $6,500.