Sentry Tournament of Champions Key Fantasy Stats

Sentry Tournament of Champions

January 5th – 8th, 2023

Plantation Course at Kapalua

Kapalua, Maui,, HI

Par: 73 / Yardage: 7,596

Purse: $15 million

with $2.7 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Cameron Smith

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Plantation Course at Kapalua, based on data from last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from the 2023 season.
One thing that is important to know, this course looks tough on TV, but it’s one of the easiest courses. Last year the field’s scoring average was 68.22, so with par being 73, the average score is almost 4 shots under par, making it the easiest of the 50 courses on the PGA Tour in 2022. The year before the scoring average was 69.32 making it the easiest of the 51 courses charted in 2021. The year before, the average was 72.23, making it three-quarters of a shot under par, making the Plantation Course the 20th hardest course on tour. The big question many will wonder is, why was there a difference of almost 4 shots between 2022 and 2020?
First of all, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most unique courses to hold a PGA Tour event. The course was carved out of the side of a mountain, so the elements played an essential role. The architects Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore put a lot of thought into routing the holes and built the course with trade winds in mind. The trade wind blows toward the ocean, meaning the wind goes in the same direction as the slope and the grain. The ball then rolls for miles, or it seems that way. Each year the Plantation course appears to have its share of 400-yard drives. With Kona winds, it blows up the hill and into the grain, which reduces the role. Last year the course had six drives of 400 yards and longer. In 2021 the course had 8 drives of 400 yards and longer. In 2000 there were only five, the difference in 2000 was that the week had Kona winds while the other years had trade winds.
So the course is at the mercy of the weather conditions, mostly the degree of wind and the direction. The Plantation Course is a resort course and not geared to be super tough. The course is the only par 73, and that is because the course has four par 5s, but only three par 3s. But the big reason for the course being accessible is the fairways; there is no way that you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua, a 777 can land on them. Last year the course ranked 49 out of 50 courses in driving accuracy as 73.82% of the drives were in the fairway. In 2021 it ranked 51st out of 51 courses in driving accuracy as 79.01% of the drives were in the fairway. The same goes for 2020. It was the most accessible course on tour as 80.93% of the fairways were hit. One thing about the course is that since the fairways are firm and many are downhill, you think the average drive would be enormous. But it isn’t. Last year the average drive was 304.3 yards and ranked 34th out of 50 courses. In 2021, the average drive was 296.9 yards, making it the 32nd hardest course on the PGA Tour.
Still, many say that the course is for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a significant advantage, 2018 winner Dustin Johnson finished 6th on the PGA Tour in driving distance that year and 2nd at Kapalua with a 296.3 average. In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 19th in driving distance on the PGA Tour and 14th at Kapalua with a 280.4 average. In 2020, winner Justin Thomas was 13th on the PGA Tour in driving distance with an average drive of 299.5 yards, but at Kapalua was 11th averaging 271.5 yards per hole. 2021 winner Harris English was 82nd in driving distance for the year and ranked 25th at Kapalua with a 277.1 average. English was the second shortest winner in the 23-year history (the shortest was Jim Furyk, 44.4 in 2001). Last year’s winner Cameron Smith ranked 4th in driving distance with an average drive of 313.1 yards and T-14th in Driving Accuracy hitting 75.0% of the fairways.
In other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions in the last few years. Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016. Even better yet, Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, and Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history. Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance, so the myth that this course is for bombers is not right, except for one little fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel, the Plantation course tends to get hit by high winds. When that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north (Kona), it helps short hitters. The same thing happens when it’s dry, firm, and fast, it helps the short hitters. For this week, winds will come out of the east-northeast, and they are predicted to be for Thursday and Friday at 15 mph and then on Saturday and Sunday at 13 mph, so look for a lot lower scores this way year because winds will be very mild. Now there will be no rain, so with the fairways firm and fast, it will help shorter hitters.

After play in 2019, the Plantation Course was closed and had an intensive, $11 million renovation project. The course was re-grassed and reshaped to make it play firmer and faster, which it did, making it a bit harder. They also redid the greens taking out the slope and undulations, which made the course easier.

The one undisputed fact that many still don’t understand about the winners at Kapalua that will probably continue, in most cases, the best putter has been the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind: of the Kapalua winners since 1999, the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round was 4th until 2020. Justin Thomas ranked T-11th, which is the highest of any winner. Still, if you looked at the playoff, Patrick Reed was in it and ranked 1st in putts per round. In 2021 Harris English ranked T-5th in putts per round, so you can see putting is the key to winning at Kapalua, if you’re a poor putter, you have just about no chance of winning. Last year was won by Cameron Smith, who is considered one of the best putters in the game. For the week he was `1st` in Strokes Gained Putting and from 4 to 8 feet was ranked 2nd making 16 of 18 putts.
Now Thomas didn’t putt that great in his win in 2020. In putts inside 10 feet, he ranked 29th (out of 34 players in the field), making 66 of 78 putts. But what Thomas did right was hitting greens. He ranked 3rd, hitting 56 of 72. They all ranked in the top ten of the last five winners, so hitting greens is essential. Another critical item inputting is the lack of three-putts. Last year Harris English didn’t have a single three-putt, the year before, Thomas had one three-putt over the 72 holes, which ranked T-2nd. In 2019 winner Schauffele had 1 in the first round, in 2018, Johnson didn’t have a single three-putt, while Thomas in 2017 had just 2 three-putts. Also, all of the winners were good at scrambling except for last year’s winner English and 2020 winner Thomas. Last year English ranked T-17th in scrambling, while in 2020, Thomas ranked 32nd as he only got it up and down in 7 of the 16 greens missed. In 2019 Schauffele was 8th, in 2018, Johnson was 6th, while in 2017 champion Thomas was 12th in scrambling, but the year before Jordan Spieth was 3rd. The 2015 winner Patrick Reed was 2nd the same for the 2014 winner Zach Johnson. One thing to remember about Thomas’s victory in 2020 was how ugly it was. He made bogey on 16 and 18 to force the playoff but made up when he went birdie, par, birdie in the playoff. The year before Xander Schauffele’s victory was historic as he shot 62, which is the lowest round shot by a champion at Kapalua.
So the key to remember about this week’s event in Maui, look for those that putt well, sure if they hit it long, it’s an added plus but putting rules this week.

So here are our four choices for the most important stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 8,722 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall putting stats placed it 47th hardest to putt in 2022, as one-putts are at a premium as the course was the 16th hardest in that stat. Three putts are very common as the course ranked 46th in 3-putt avoidance last year. Last year Smith was 1st in one-putts and T-13th in 3-putt avoidance.

*Proximity to Hole: In greens in regulation 82.42% were hit last year, making it the easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In proximity to the hole players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year they averaged 35 feet, 4 inches which were T-25th on the course in 2022. As for Smith, he averaged 34 feet, 9 inches and ranked 20th So you have to not only get on the green, but Proximity to hole is important

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field was the easiest in birdie average and easiest in Par Breakers last year. Smith made 31 birdies, the 2nd best of anyone in the field.

*Scrambling: With big greens, it’s nearly impossible to miss them, still if you do miss a green you have to get it up and down. Last year the course ranked 45th on tour in scrambling, but that was a bit misleading because you better get it up and down for those that win. Last year smith missed 10 greens and got it up and down 8 times (80.00%) to rank T-9th, again showing in past years how this stat has been important.

37 of the 39 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2022:

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