BlogSentry Tournament of Champions Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Happy New Year to all of you.

So this week will be the start of the new PGA Tour rules in which 12 events will have elevated purses.  One of those events is the Sentry Tournament of Champions, in which the purse has gone from $8.2 million last year to $15 million.  Cameron Smith was the winner last year and won $1,476,000, but this week’s winner will get a whopping $2.7 million.  Still, the big purse didn’t seem to pique Rory McIlroy’s interest as he decided at the last minute not to play.  He did the same thing last year and will start his year playing in the Middle East swing of the DP World Tour.

We will see players who won on the PGA Tour in the 2022 season but won’t be defending their championship.  In the fall portion, Houston winner Jason Kokrak and RSM winner Talor Gooch didn’t defend their titles.  This week Cameron Smith won’t be at Kapalua, and in future weeks Hudson Swafford won’t defend in Palm Springs, Joaquin Nieman won’t defend at the Genesis and Cameron Smith will not be at the Players Championship.

Still, one of the best perks on the PGA Tour for winning is starting the year off in Maui. For the average person, they would kill just to get to Hawaii.  The winners in 2022 will not only get to go to Hawaii, but they get a week at a Ritz Carlton on one of the prettiest beaches in the world. Food couldn’t be any better; the scenery is the best for those who like water sports from surfing to snorkeling the Kapalua beaches are the best. Yes, this is arduous work, and to think, there is no hustle or bustle this week, play lousy, finish last, and you’ll still make $200,000. But if you play well and win, it’s a $2.7 million payday. What a life.

For those looking for Pick your Pro 2023, It will be up in a week or so.  Sorry but at the last moment, my wife and I got tickets for the Rose Bowl game to watch Penn State win, so I am a bit behind, should have it up in the next week.

Course information:

The Plantation course was designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw and was opened in May of 1991. Between 1992 and 1997, the course was the venue of the Lincoln-Mercury Kapalua Open, with the Mercedes Championships moving to the Plantation course in 1999. The average green size at Kapalua is 8,700 square feet, which means that it has some of the largest greens on tour. This will place a premium on putting, especially on long putts. The course has 95 bunkers and no water hazards, with vast fairways that a 747 can land on them.  The event has been played on this course since 1999, and looking at the champions, there are as many short hitters in their winner’s roles as long hitters.  What makes the course difficult is mother nature, without an abundance of trees, the course is completely open to the elements.  Along with the Maui sunshine, winds affect the course every single day, sometimes as a gentle breeze but on most days wimping from off the ocean up the hillside winds of 15 mph is the norm.  When the winds go higher, sometimes in the 40 mph range, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is very hard to maneuver around.

Last year, the course played to a scoring average of 68.22 (remember it’s a par 73), so the course played 4 and three-quarters of a shot under par, and it was the easiest course on the PGA Tour in 2022.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Plantation Course at Kapalua:

This is based on the most important stats for Plantation Course at Kapalua, based on data from last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from the 2023 season.
One thing that is important to know, this course looks tough on TV, but it’s one of the easiest courses. Last year the field’s scoring average was 68.22, so with par being 73, the average score is almost 4 shots under par, making it the easiest of the 50 courses on the PGA Tour in 2022. The year before the scoring average was 69.32 making it the easiest of the 51 courses charted in 2021. The year before, the average was 72.23, making it three-quarters of a shot under par, making the Plantation Course the 20th hardest course on tour. The big question many will wonder is, why was there a difference of almost 4 shots between 2022 and 2020?
First of all, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most unique courses to hold a PGA Tour event. The course was carved out of the side of a mountain, so the elements played an essential role. The architects Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore put a lot of thought into routing the holes and built the course with trade winds in mind. The trade wind blows toward the ocean, meaning the wind goes in the same direction as the slope and the grain. The ball then rolls for miles, or it seems that way. Each year the Plantation course appears to have its share of 400-yard drives. With Kona winds, it blows up the hill and into the grain, which reduces the role. Last year the course had six drives of 400 yards and longer. In 2021 the course had 8 drives of 400 yards and longer. In 2000 there were only five, the difference in 2000 was that the week had Kona winds while the other years had trade winds.
So the course is at the mercy of the weather conditions, mostly the degree of wind and the direction. The Plantation Course is a resort course and not geared to be super tough. The course is the only par 73, and that is because the course has four par 5s, but only three par 3s. But the big reason for the course being accessible is the fairways; there is no way that you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua, a 777 can land on them. Last year the course ranked 49 out of 50 courses in driving accuracy as 73.82% of the drives were in the fairway. In 2021 it ranked 51st out of 51 courses in driving accuracy as 79.01% of the drives were in the fairway. The same goes for 2020. It was the most accessible course on tour as 80.93% of the fairways were hit. One thing about the course is that since the fairways are firm and many are downhill, you think the average drive would be enormous. But it isn’t. Last year the average drive was 304.3 yards and ranked 34th out of 50 courses. In 2021, the average drive was 296.9 yards, making it the 32nd hardest course on the PGA Tour.
Still, many say that the course is for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a significant advantage, 2018 winner Dustin Johnson finished 6th on the PGA Tour in driving distance that year and 2nd at Kapalua with a 296.3 average. In 2019, winner Xander Schauffele was 19th in driving distance on the PGA Tour and 14th at Kapalua with a 280.4 average. In 2020, winner Justin Thomas was 13th on the PGA Tour in driving distance with an average drive of 299.5 yards, but at Kapalua was 11th averaging 271.5 yards per hole. 2021 winner Harris English was 82nd in driving distance for the year and ranked 25th at Kapalua with a 277.1 average. English was the second shortest winner in the 23-year history (the shortest was Jim Furyk, 44.4 in 2001). Last year’s winner Cameron Smith ranked 4th in driving distance with an average drive of 313.1 yards and T-14th in Driving Accuracy hitting 75.0% of the fairways.
In other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions in the last few years. Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016. Even better yet, Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, and Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history. Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance, so the myth that this course is for bombers is not right, except for one little fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel, the Plantation course tends to get hit by high winds. When that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north (Kona), it helps short hitters. The same thing happens when it’s dry, firm, and fast, it helps the short hitters. For this week, winds will come out of the east-northeast, and they are predicted to be for Thursday and Friday at 15 mph and then on Saturday and Sunday at 13 mph, so look for a lot lower scores this way year because winds will be very mild. Now there will be no rain, so with the fairways firm and fast, it will help shorter hitters.

After play in 2019, the Plantation Course was closed and had an intensive, $11 million renovation project. The course was re-grassed and reshaped to make it play firmer and faster, which it did, making it a bit harder. They also redid the greens taking out the slope and undulations, which made the course easier.

The one undisputed fact that many still don’t understand about the winners at Kapalua that will probably continue, in most cases, the best putter has been the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind: of the Kapalua winners since 1999, the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round was 4th until 2020. Justin Thomas ranked T-11th, which is the highest of any winner. Still, if you looked at the playoff, Patrick Reed was in it and ranked 1st in putts per round. In 2021 Harris English ranked T-5th in putts per round, so you can see putting is the key to winning at Kapalua, if you’re a poor putter, you have just about no chance of winning. Last year was won by Cameron Smith, who is considered one of the best putters in the game. For the week he was `1st` in Strokes Gained Putting and from 4 to 8 feet was ranked 2nd making 16 of 18 putts.
Now Thomas didn’t putt that great in his win in 2020. In putts inside 10 feet, he ranked 29th (out of 34 players in the field), making 66 of 78 putts. But what Thomas did right was hitting greens. He ranked 3rd, hitting 56 of 72. They all ranked in the top ten of the last five winners, so hitting greens is essential. Another critical item inputting is the lack of three-putts. Last year Harris English didn’t have a single three-putt, the year before, Thomas had one three-putt over the 72 holes, which ranked T-2nd. In 2019 winner Schauffele had 1 in the first round, in 2018, Johnson didn’t have a single three-putt, while Thomas in 2017 had just 2 three-putts. Also, all of the winners were good at scrambling except for last year’s winner English and 2020 winner Thomas. Last year English ranked T-17th in scrambling, while in 2020, Thomas ranked 32nd as he only got it up and down in 7 of the 16 greens missed. In 2019 Schauffele was 8th, in 2018, Johnson was 6th, while in 2017 champion Thomas was 12th in scrambling, but the year before Jordan Spieth was 3rd. The 2015 winner Patrick Reed was 2nd the same for the 2014 winner Zach Johnson. One thing to remember about Thomas’s victory in 2020 was how ugly it was. He made bogey on 16 and 18 to force the playoff but made up when he went birdie, par, birdie in the playoff. The year before Xander Schauffele’s victory was historic as he shot 62, which is the lowest round shot by a champion at Kapalua.
So the key to remember about this week’s event in Maui, look for those that putt well, sure if they hit it long, it’s an added plus but putting rules this week.

So here are our four choices for the most important stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 8,722 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall putting stats placed it 47th hardest to putt in 2022, as one-putts are at a premium as the course was the 16th hardest in that stat. Three putts are very common as the course ranked 46th in 3-putt avoidance last year. Last year Smith was 1st in one-putts and T-13th in 3-putt avoidance.

*Proximity to Hole: In greens in regulation 82.42% were hit last year, making it the easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In proximity to the hole players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year they averaged 35 feet, 4 inches which were T-25th on the course in 2022. As for Smith, he averaged 34 feet, 9 inches and ranked 20th So you have to not only get on the green, but Proximity to hole is important

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field was the easiest in birdie average and easiest in Par Breakers last year. Smith made 31 birdies, the 2nd best of anyone in the field.

*Scrambling: With big greens, it’s nearly impossible to miss them, still if you do miss a green you have to get it up and down. Last year the course ranked 45th on tour in scrambling, but that was a bit misleading because you better get it up and down for those that win. Last year smith missed 10 greens and got it up and down 8 times (80.00%) to rank T-9th, again showing in past years how this stat has been important.

37 of the 39 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link for all player stats for the Sentry ToC

Playing in events on the OceanThis is a stat that more and more folks should be interested in.  In the last couple of years, 15 of the 50 events played are either on the Pacific, Atlantic, or Caribbean seas.  Here is a look at some of the players who do well on courses by water since the start of 2020.

Viktor Hovland could be the King in Ocean events.  All three of his PGA Tour wins have come by the sea at Mayakoba and Puerto Rico.  He also has won two Hero World Challenges in Bermuda.  In 16 starts since 2020 by the sea, he has 7 top-ten finishes.

Jon Rahm has done great, since 2020 he has played by the ocean 15 times, with one win at the 2021 U.S. Open.  He has eleven top-ten finishes including runner-up finishes in the 2020 Farmers, 2022 Sentry TofC, and the 2020 Hero Challenge.

Justin Thomas has played in 17 ocean events.  He won the 2021 Players and has 9 top-ten finishes.

Others that have played well in Ocean events include Collin Morikawa, Xander Scheuffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Jordan Spieth, who in his career won five events by the ocean at the 2014 Hero World Challenge, 2016 Sentry TofC, 2017 AT&T Pebble, 2017 British Open and 2022 Heritage.

DraftKings tips

Historical ParBreakers

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 season and going through the 2023 Hero World Challenge, a total of 57 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $10,300
• Jon Rahm – $10,000
• Justin Thomas – $9,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
• Xander Schauffele – $9,500
• Collin Morikawa – $9,400
• Tony Finau – $9,300
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,100

A happy New Year to you and happy picking in DraftKings for the year.

In looking at the prices for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the first one is Scottie Scheffler at $10,300  Makes sense since he is the Player of the Year and was great in 2023, but in looking for him to do well this week I have my doubts, not because he does make a lot of DraftKings points, but I don’t like three things on him.  First, he only played once at Kapalua and was T-13th in 2021.  I also don’t like his play on seaside courses, yes he has done at the Hero World Challenge and was T-3rd at the Mayakoba in November, but he hasn’t been a world beater on Ocean side courses.  But the last thing that bothers me the most, he is a very average putter, we are looking for players that do well in putting.  So he is a pass for me.  Jon Rahm at $10,000 is a different story.  He is an above-average putter, but we like that he makes a lot of DraftKings points (an average of 82 per event).  But we like his great play on ocean courses, on the PGA Tour in 14 starts by the sea hr has ten, top-ten finishes.  We also like his play in past Sentry’s, in five starts he has two runner-ups including a 2nd last year.  To top everything off, not only does he always make a lot of DraftKings points, but in his last five starts since the Tour Championship, he has two wins and a runner-up.  So he is my top choice.  Justin Thomas at $9,900 is also a good pick, in seven starts at Kapalua, he has two wins and two third-place finishes.  Last year he was T-5th and you can always count on him doing a good job on this course..  Patrick Cantlay at $9,700 is also a good choice that many will pass on.  He was 4th at Kapalua last year and in 2020.  Now we like that he is a very good putter, the one problem area he only has played once since the Tour Championship and was T-2nd in Las Vegas.  For those with short memories, Cantlay had the lead going into the 72nd hole but make a quad-8 on the hole handing the title to Tom Kim.  Xander Schauffele at $9,500 is also a great choice, he won at Kapalua in 2019 and was runner-up in 2020.  Yes, he was 12th last year but that doesn’t worry me because he is a good putter and in his two starts since the Tour Championship was T-9th at the Zozo Championship and was 4th at the Hero.  He also has a good record in events by the water.  Collin Morikawa at $9,400 is a hard choice, he isn’t that great of a putter and hasn’t played that great in the last year.  Still, he has a good record at Kapalua and is one to watch finishing T-5th last year, and T-7th in 2021 and 2020.  Still putting is the weakest part of his game so that is why I can’t recommend him.  Tony Finau at $9,300 is a dangerous pick since he hasn’t played well at Kapalua in his three starts.  Tony was very impressive since the summer winning three times including a win in Houston in November.  Finau has putted better so he could be a pleasant surprise.  Last is Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,100 he will be playing at Kapalua for the first time.  Fitzpatrick doesn’t show a knack for playing well on courses by an ocean, but he was 22nd last year in Strokes Gained putting so he could surprise us.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Will Zalatoris at $8,900 is making his first start at Kapalua and his first start since his back forced him to withdraw at the BMW Championship in August.  We haven’t seen him since and have to wonder if he is really healthy and will be rusty.  So avoid him like you would the plague.  Cameron Young at $8,800 is another rookie, he is an average putter but has seen peaks with the putter. One thing to watch, after not showing much ability for playing ocean courses, things got better in 2022 when he was T-2nd at Heritage, 2nd at the British Open, and 3rd at Hero.  So he is worth the money.  Tom Kim at $8,700 is the new favorite on the PGA Tour.  Since playing regularly on the PGA Tour after the British Open, his game has shown special magic winning at the Wyndham and Las Vegas.  Hasn’t played much on ocean courses but for DraftKings pick, he has averaged 82.07 points in 15 events, so he will be another person that could surprise us.  Viktor Hovland at $8,500 is a person to think about.  We have to like that play on oceans is the best, all three of his PGA Tour victories have been at Mayakoba and Puerto Rico.  On top of that has won twice at the Hero in the Bahamas.  He was also T-2nd at the Farmers, T-4th at the British Open and he averages 80.59 DraftKings points.  A bit worried that in two Kapalua starts he was at the bottom of the standings both times.  But he is a good putter, yes bad off the green but I have a feeling this week could be good for him.  Jordan Spieth is at $8,200 and yes his putting isn’t up to his normal stuff. But he is back at Kapalua where he won, and finished 2nd and 3rd, despite that being T-21st last year, sorry I am taking a pass on him.  Brian Harman at $8,000 is a player to think about.  After years of not playing well on Ocean Courses, he has woken up finishing T-6th at the British, 2nd at Mayakoba, and Hero.  He finished T-3rd at Kapalua in 2016 the last time he played there.  Putting is not a problem, he is above average but the biggest problem is not much offense in his game, he averages just 67.55 DraftKings points which are below average.  Russell Henley at $7,700 is a thought, he finished T-3rd at Kapalua in 2015.  Also has a knack for playing on ocean courses and in the wind, of his four PGA Tour wins he claims victory at Mayakoba and the Sony Open, plus the Honda Classic is played five miles from the ocean but is always windy.  He averages 70.51 DraftKings points per event so at his cheap price, he has to be one of your picks.  Last is Adam Scott at $7,600, he has a lot of positives for his price.  First, he averages 73.27 DraftKings points per event.  He was runner-up at Kapalua in 2007, but he was 2nd in Australia in November so for the price a great buy.

*So are there any “Bargains” out there?

Of the field of 39, 13 of the players have never played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions.  So that will mean it will be hard to dig up a bargain or two this week when you consider that ten of the 13 are priced below $7,500.  Off the bat I like Aaron Wise at $7,400, he is an average putter who could strike at any time.   I also like Sahith Theegala at $7,300 which gives lots of value. I like how well he has played since joining the PGA Tour last year, his last start was T-2nd at RSM.  He is an average putter but when he gets hot, he can go low, especially on a course like Kapalua.  Another great choice is Seamus Power at $7,200.  He is a very good putter, ranked 40th in Strokes Gained Putting last year, he was T-15th in his first go around at Kapalua last year.  What I really like is his great record in events played on an ocean, he has seven top-15 finishes in his last 17 starts, including winning at Bermuda, T-3rd at Mayakoba, and T-9th at RSM.  He also has averaged 21.05 DraftKings points per round played.  The pickings get very slim after that, the only other person I can recommend is Tom Hoge at $6,500.  He has missed a lot of cuts but if you look at his DraftKings points on a per-round basis, he averages 19.37 and he did win last year at Pebble Beach played on the Pacific.

*So who are my six DraftKings picks for this week?

• Jon Rahm – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay at $9,700
• Brian Harman at $8,000
• Russell Henley at $7,700
• Sahith Theegala at $7,300
• Seamus Power at $7,200

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sentry Tournament of Champions:

The key stat for the winner:

• The Plantation Course is not a driving course. A good driver has no advantage here so players just have to rear back and hit it as far as they can. The fairways are big enough to land a 747 on them and for those that miss the fairway, the rough frankly is of no worries, so this is one of the rare events that driving means nothing.  2013 was a perfect example, winner Dustin Johnson missed the most fairways of anyone in the field (missed 37 of the 60 attempts) but on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson’s average drive of 279.5 yards was the second longest.  2017 winner Justin Thomas was T-17th in driving accuracy hitting 44 of 60 fairways while he was 3rd in driving distance for the week at 301.6 yards per drive.  Thomas in 2020 was T-19th hitting 47 of 60 fairways but was 3rd in Greens in Regulation hitting 56 of 72 and ranking 3rd.  2021’s winner Harris English was T-14th hitting 50 of 60 fairways but was T-3rd in Greens in Regulation hitting 62 of the 72.  Last year’s winner Cameron Smith was T-14th hitting 45 of 60 fairways but was T-5th in Greens in Regulation hitting 62 of 72
• The motto in this is, hitting it long does not have that much of an advantage.
• Again in some cases, stats are misleading because even though you can hit it long, the course is one of those where everyone hits all the greens so everyone is in the same boat.
• So along with players hitting it as far as they can, also look for players hitting lots of greens. Since they are so large, averaging 8,700 square feet, you can see that players miss only three greens per round. So hitting lots of greens is a misnomer.  The average proximity to the hole is 35 feet 4 inches which made the pins the hardest to get close so you can see that lag putting is crucial.
• So two key stats stand out as necessary, first approach putt performance which gauges who lag putts the closet to the hole? In 2022, those playing at Kapalua averaged getting their first putt within 2 feet, 0 inches away.  The other key stat is birdie or better conversion per greens hit, Kapalua was 50th as players birdied 40.12% of the greens they hit, so making birdies is easy and necessary.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Still, the king of stats is putting.  With big greens, putting is essential.
• Look at last year’s winner Cameron Smith.  He was T-5th in hitting greens and averaged 34 feet, 9 inches from the hole that ranked 20th.  But he won the tournament with his putter as he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting.
• Last but not least we need to access the true changes made to the course.  Lots of times these changes are just cosmetic in nature, but in the case of these changes after the 2019 tournament we won’t see the changes on TV, but the players have experienced them.  The talk among the players was about how much you had to be careful driving the ball. Now the ball can roll into danger because there is more roll in the fairway.  What could be misleading this year is the winds, they will be low and with the changes to the course, many will say it will be interesting to see if more of the shorter hitters, the Patrick Cantlay’s, the Adam Svensson’s, the Brian Harman’s and the Russell Henley’s of the world will have a better chance and will content this week on a really long course.