Sony Open in Hawaii Key Fantasy Stats

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 12th – 15th, 2023

Waialae C.C.

Honolulu, HI

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,044

Purse: $7.9 Million

with $1,422,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Hideki Matsuyama

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, based on data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and using data from all the players in the field averaging the rank from 2023 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 68.00, making it two shots under par and the 41st hardest course on tour (9th easiest). In 2021 the scoring average was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on tour (7th easiest). The important reason for such an easy scoring average the last two years was perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the biggest change being part of the course going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course has played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind; in 2020, they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday and 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year will be different, with warm skies but light winds between 6 to 14 mph each day.

As we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds, the scores were low. So in looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players, like it was in Kapalua. That brings in a different realm of players, those with explosive offensive will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course, but still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shoot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than Kapalua, which are wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year the course ranked 29th in driving accuracy as the players hit 61.56% of the fairways. Last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama was ok off the tee as he hit 71.43% of the fairways and ranked T-13th.In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green Matsuyama ranked 5th.2002 In 2021, the course ranked 19th in driving accuracy as the players hit 57.64 of the fairways. 2021 winner Kevin Na was not very straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In 2020 things were different; with the lack of rough, the field was more accurate as 65.53% of the fairways were hit, and it ranked 32nd. The previous year with hard, tight fairways, they were hit 56.27% of the time, making it a more demanding course as it ranked 13th. In 2018 and 2017, it ranked 14th, so hitting fairways is essential. 2020 winner Cameron Smith was T-41st in Driving Accuracy, which wasn’t that great. The year before, it was important and one of the keys to why Matt Kuchar won in 2019, as he ranked T-4th in driving accuracy. Kuchar was also great in strokes gained tee-to-green. He was 3rd along with being 7th in strokes gained approach-the-green. Now last year’s winner, Na wasn’t that great as he was 44th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 4th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the great weather.
In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something that all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 15 of the 21 were in the top 12 while seven of the 21 were in the top three. Last year Hideki Matsuyama was not himself as he ranked T-36th in greens hit. In 2021 Kevin Na let us down as he ranked T-29th in Greens hit. The same with 2020 winner Cameron Smith who ranked 20th, but the previous year, 2019, Matt Kuchar showed the importance of this stat, hitting 60 of the 72 greens to lead the field and becoming the third winner since 1997 to lead that stat (John Huston in 1998 & Jimmy Walker in 2015). So our second category is Greens in Regulation. Last year the course was the T-41st hardest on tour, as the field hit 732.61% of the greens. In 2021 the course was the 48th hardest on tour as the field hit 73.21% of the greens (The course was easy to hit as only 3 courses had more greens hit). In contrast, during the 2020 Sony Open, 64.51% of the greens were hit as the course ranked 14th, so in windy conditions, the course is drastically harder.
Next is Par Breakers since Waialae ranked 41st with the most birdies on the PGA Tour last year with 1,725 and the 43rd highest in Eagles with 53. In 2021 Waialae had the 46th most birdies on the PGA Tour last year with 1,795 and the 44th highest in Eagles with 60. In 2020 with different conditions, only 1,269 birdies were made as the course ranked 23rd, and 34 eagles were made, which ranked T-24th. Last year Matsuyama won, making 26 birdies, and was the leader in Par Breakers. The previous year’s winner, Kevin Na made 24 birdies and one eagle and ranked 3rd in Par Breaker. In 2020 Cameron Smith won, making 21 birdies, and was T-1st in Par Breakers.
Last is putting average. We pick this stat because of the fact that if you look at the past winners, most of them, like last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama are notoriously not very good putters. Yes, Cameron Smith won, and he is one of the best putters in golf, but you look at all of the winners, and we find a lot of poor putters. Last year Matsuyama ranked 3rd in putting as he averaged 27.0 putts per round. In 2022 Matsuyama was T-69th in putting average for the year and 174th in Strokes Gained Putting. In 2021, Kevin Na was also T-3rd, averaging the same 27.0 putts per round for the Sony. In 2021 on Tour, Na was T-34th in putting average and 87th in Strokes Gained Putting.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who it’s the most greens in regulation. Last year Waialae ranked 4th easiest in greens hit during 2021.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Putting average: The lowest amount of putts for the week.

125 of the 144 Players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.