BlogSony Open in Hawaii Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Since 1999 when it was slotted behind the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Sony got an added boost in that most of those at the Sentry T of C made the short flight to Honolulu to play this event.  Over the years, it’s gone up and down, but most of the time, being behind the Sentry has helped the field for the Sony.  Of the 39 players in Kapalua last week, 17 have made it to the Sony.  The only problem, eleven of the top ten in the Official World Golf Rankings were at the Sentry (#2 Scottie Scheffler, #4 Patrick Cantlay, #5 Jon Rahm, #6 Xander Schauffele, #7 Will Zalatoris, #8 Justin Thomas, #9 Matt Fitzpatrick, #10 Viktor Hovland, #11 Collin Morikawa, #12 Tony Finau, #13 Sam Burns) have decided to bypass Sony, thus robbing the Sony of a really great field.  Because of the new rules of elevated events in which the best players have to play in 13 elevated events, many of the top players won’t attend events like the Sony.  So of those that attended the Sentry last week, these are the players that will play at Sony and how they finished at Sentry:

• T-3rd at Sentry – Tom Hoge
• T-5th at Sentry – Tom Kim
• T-5th at Sentry – J.J. Spaun
• T-7th at Sentry – K.H. Lee
• T-13th at Sentry – Jordan Spieth
• T-13th at Sentry – Sungjae Im
• T-16th at Sentry – Brian Harman
• T-18th at Sentry – Corey Conners
• T-21st at Sentry – Hideki Matsuyama
• T-21st at Sentry – Mackenzie Hughes
• T-21st at Sentry – J.T. Poston
• 29th at Sentry – Adam Scott
• T-30th at Sentry – Russell Henley
• 34th at Sentry – Keegan Bradley
• T-35th at Sentry – Ryan Brehm
• 37th at Sentry – Adam Svensson
• 38th at Sentry – Chad Ramey

Since Sentry and Sony are back to back, only Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) have won both events in the same year.  The bad news is last week’s winner Jon Rahm isn’t playing at the Sony, so there won’t be back-to-back Hawaii Slam.

Waialae Course information:

The course was designed by Seth Raynor and Charles Banks and opened in 1925. It has gone through a series of changes, first by Bob Baldock in 1966, then Arthur Jack Snyder in 1969, then Robert Nelson and Rodney Wright in 1984, then by Arnold Palmer & Ed Seay in 1991, and finally by Desmond Muirhead in 1992.  To make things even tougher, Waialae hired Rick Smith in the late ’90s to develop some more renovations for the future.  Smith returned the course to the original design that Seth Raynor first produced.

One of the significant changes made, which didn’t affect the course but did affect the tournament, came in 1999.  That’s when championship and PGA Tour officials moved up the tees on the 1st and 13th holes and changed them from par 5s to 4s. It didn’t make the course easier or tougher. It was a perception that the course was harder with scores going up, even though that wasn’t the case.

The average green size at Waialae is 7,500 square feet, and the course has 79 bunkers.  Nine of the holes have water on them, but for the touring pros, only three of those holes are affected.  For tournament week, the nines are reversed so that the par3 8th hole, which runs along the Pacific, becomes the 17th and is shown on television. One rarity you don’t see on many courses is that four of the closing five holes (14, 15, 16 & 18) are sharp dogleg lefts, so those that hook the ball have an advantage.

Another thing about Waialae: It’s been the only home of the Sony Open since 1965.  The only other courses with a better track record on the PGA Tour are Augusta National, which has been the home of the Masters since 1934, Pebble Beach, which has been the home of the AT&T since 1947, and Colonial, which has been the home of the Charles Schwab Challenge since 1948.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Waialae:

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, based on data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and using data from all the players in the field averaging the rank from 2023 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 68.00, making it two shots under par and the 41st hardest course on tour (9th easiest). In 2021 the scoring average was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on tour (7th easiest). The important reason for such an easy scoring average the last two years was perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the biggest change being part of the course going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course has played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind; in 2020, they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday and 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year will be different, with warm skies but light winds between 6 to 14 mph each day.

As we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds, the scores were low. So in looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players, like it was in Kapalua. That brings in a different realm of players, those with explosive offensive will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course, but still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shoot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than Kapalua, which are wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year the course ranked 29th in driving accuracy as the players hit 61.56% of the fairways. Last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama was ok off the tee as he hit 71.43% of the fairways and ranked T-13th.In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green Matsuyama ranked 5th.2002 In 2021, the course ranked 19th in driving accuracy as the players hit 57.64 of the fairways. 2021 winner Kevin Na was not very straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In 2020 things were different; with the lack of rough, the field was more accurate as 65.53% of the fairways were hit, and it ranked 32nd. The previous year with hard, tight fairways, they were hit 56.27% of the time, making it a more demanding course as it ranked 13th. In 2018 and 2017, it ranked 14th, so hitting fairways is essential. 2020 winner Cameron Smith was T-41st in Driving Accuracy, which wasn’t that great. The year before, it was important and one of the keys to why Matt Kuchar won in 2019, as he ranked T-4th in driving accuracy. Kuchar was also great in strokes gained tee-to-green. He was 3rd along with being 7th in strokes gained approach-the-green. Now last year’s winner, Na wasn’t that great as he was 44th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 4th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the great weather.
In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something that all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 15 of the 21 were in the top 12 while seven of the 21 were in the top three. Last year Hideki Matsuyama was not himself as he ranked T-36th in greens hit. In 2021 Kevin Na let us down as he ranked T-29th in Greens hit. The same with 2020 winner Cameron Smith who ranked 20th, but the previous year, 2019, Matt Kuchar showed the importance of this stat, hitting 60 of the 72 greens to lead the field and becoming the third winner since 1997 to lead that stat (John Huston in 1998 & Jimmy Walker in 2015). So our second category is Greens in Regulation. Last year the course was the T-41st hardest on tour, as the field hit 732.61% of the greens. In 2021 the course was the 48th hardest on tour as the field hit 73.21% of the greens (The course was easy to hit as only 3 courses had more greens hit). In contrast, during the 2020 Sony Open, 64.51% of the greens were hit as the course ranked 14th, so in windy conditions, the course is drastically harder.
Next is Par Breakers since Waialae ranked 41st with the most birdies on the PGA Tour last year with 1,725 and the 43rd highest in Eagles with 53. In 2021 Waialae had the 46th most birdies on the PGA Tour last year with 1,795 and the 44th highest in Eagles with 60. In 2020 with different conditions, only 1,269 birdies were made as the course ranked 23rd, and 34 eagles were made, which ranked T-24th. Last year Matsuyama won, making 26 birdies, and was the leader in Par Breakers. The previous year’s winner, Kevin Na made 24 birdies and one eagle and ranked 3rd in Par Breaker. In 2020 Cameron Smith won, making 21 birdies, and was T-1st in Par Breakers.
Last is putting average. We pick this stat because of the fact that if you look at the past winners, most of them, like last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama are notoriously not very good putters. Yes, Cameron Smith won, and he is one of the best putters in golf, but you look at all of the winners, and we find a lot of poor putters. Last year Matsuyama ranked 3rd in putting as he averaged 27.0 putts per round. In 2022 Matsuyama was T-69th in putting average for the year and 174th in Strokes Gained Putting. In 2021, Kevin Na was also T-3rd, averaging the same 27.0 putts per round for the Sony. In 2021 on Tour, Na was T-34th in putting average and 87th in Strokes Gained Putting.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT WAIALAE:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who it’s the most greens in regulation. Last year Waialae ranked 4th easiest in greens hit during 2021.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Putting average: The lowest amount of putts for the week.

125 of the 144 Players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to see all the player’s stats for the Sony Open

DraftKings tips

Historical ParBreakers

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 season and going through the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, a total of 58 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

Here is a look at the bottom ten, yes you want no part of these folks.

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

DraftKings tips

• Tom Kim – $10,500
• Sungjae Im – $10,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,100
• Jordan Spieth – $10,000
• Tom Hoge – $9,900
• Russell Henley – $9,800
• Brian Harman – $9,700
• Corey Conners – $9,600
• Billy Horschel – $9,500
• Keegan Bradley – $9,300
• Maverick McNealy – $9,100
• Taylor Montgomery – $9,000

In past Sony’s, because of the weather conditions with lack of wind and perfect conditions, we have looked for players that produce the most offensive power, meaning lots of birdies and eagles this week. This week that will be necessary, with excellent conditions and no wind, it will create a big onslaught onto Waialae. Now we know that predicting weather is very dicey in Hawaii, even the TV stations in Hawaii are vague on long-term predictions because they know that it could switch at a moment’s notice. But in all my time in Hawaii, it’s a rarity to see four straight days of hardly any wind. Still have to consider that and make sure to pick someone with a lot of firepower.

A year ago, not many people knew of Tom Kim, today Kim is our front-runner at $10,500, and we can’t find a reason to say no.  In his last 12 events, his best point total for an event is 140 points at Shriners, and his worst performance is 55 points at the BMW Championship.  Kim is the type of player that gets a lot of points, last week at the Sentry, he finished T-5th and earned 129.5 points.  So feel free to pick this 21-year-old, he will be fine.  On paper, Sungjae Im at $10,300, is worth the cost, he makes a lot of cuts and averages 79.5 points per event.  What worries me is in four Sony starts, he hasn’t played that great, missing the cut last year, so pass on him.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,100 is another pass for me, yes he is our defending champion, but his game has been very inconsistent of late, including a T-21st last week in Kapalua.  Jordan Spieth at $10,000 is also a no for me, sorry but his game has not been spot on, an example of this is last week at the Sentry, he shot 67-66 in the first two rounds but followed it up with a 71-69 over the weekend.  So take a pass on Jordan.  Tom Hoge at $9,900 is a toss-up for me; yes, he plays great on ocean courses, an example of that was his T-3rd last week in Maui.  I worry about him being too tired after a day trek to Los Angeles to watch his TCU Horned Frogs get the worst beating of any team in football.  His long flight back to Hawaii on Tuesday had to be sad for him.  I like Russell Henley at $9,800 a lot, his record is good at the Sony, he won it in 2013 and was runner-up last year.  He also won at Mayakoba in November, but most of all, this is a course he can do well on.  Brian Harman at $9,700 is a good choice, his game has been solid of late, he was T-4th at the Sony in 2018, think he is on the cusp of playing well.  He ended 2022 with a pair of runner-up finishes at the Mayakoba and Houston.  Corey Conners at $9,600 is a yes for me, he has played solidly and averaged 71.6 DraftKings points per event.  But his Sony record shouts out to pick him, he has been in the top 12 in his last three starts, including a T-3rd in 2019.  Billy Horschel at $9,500, is also a good pick very solid player who averages 72.7 points per round, he did finish T-7th at the Sony in 2021.  Of all these players, I like Keegan Bradley at $9,300 the most.  He has never had a special moment at the Sony, but he is playing well, and Waialae will be up his alley the way he is playing.  So a very good pick.  The same with Maverick McNealy at $9,100.  He always earns a lot of DraftKing points, and his game has been solid since missing the cut at Fortinet back in September.  Taylor Montgomery at $9,000 is also a good choice, he is a newcomer to the PGA Tour, but his game has been solid, making the cut in his seven 2023 starts.  Yes, he is a Sony rookie, but don’t let that stop you from choosing him this week.

*Players in the $7,500 to $8,900 range:

Adam Scott at $8,600 is a strange pick.  Yes, he isn’t the superstud that he use to be, but he is a solid player that makes cuts and, along the way, gets a lot of DraftKings points.  An example of that was last week in the Sentry. Scott finished 29th but earned 86 points, so he is a guy that, if you need someone in that $8,600 price range, pick him.  Cam Davis at $8,500 is another of those players to pick for the same reason you pick Adam Scott.  Davis is a solid player who makes many cuts and always picks up good paychecks.  He also earns a lot of DraftKings points, he averages 66.1.  Keith Mitchell at $8,300, is also a good pick, just like Scott and Davis.  But he comes into the Sony with a good record of finishing in the top 25 in four of his five starts, including a T-7th last year.  Matt Kuchar at $7,900 is a gamble but could be good.  Yes, he isn’t the same player he was a few years ago, but he can still put up a lot of DraftKings points.  But at the same time, he misses one in four cuts, so he is dangerous.  The reason to pick him this week, he solid record at the Sony, including a win in 2019 and a T-7th last year.  Last in this category is Will Gordon at $7,600.  He has been very solid in his seven starts in 2023, including a T-3rd at Mayakoba, and despite missing two of two Sony cuts feel he will do a lot better this week.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

The first pick is Adam Svensson at $7,500, he has played solidly in 2023, including a win at the RSM Classic.  Next up is a bit of a gamble: Webb Simpson at $7,400.  He is getting over a series of injuries and comes to a course he has dominated on.  In 12 Sony starts, he has made 12 cuts and been in the top-25 in eight times, including a 3rd place finish in 2020.  Greyson Sigg at $7,300, could be the smartest pick of anyone.  He has played solidly in 2023, making all six cuts, and averaged 87 DraftKings points for the season.  His only Sony start was T-42nd last year.  Another good pick is Lucas Glover at $7,000.  He makes a lot of cuts and, despite not being much in the offense department, was T-5th last year at the Sony.  So the price is right, and he just about guarantees playing 72 holes.  Now a Japanese player in the field this week that have had a solid career is Keita Nakajima at $6,700.  Yes, he is worth the money, his last event in Japan, was T-8th at the Casio World Open. He won an event as an amateur in 2021 and was worth the dive.  Another Japanese player worth the money is Yuto Katsuragawa at $6,700, he was T-8th at the Nippon Series JT Cup and in the fall, was 2nd at the Vantelin Tokai Classic and 3rd at the Panasonic Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sony Open in Hawaii

The key stat for the winner:

• The PGA Tour is still in Hawaii for the Sony Open. Played at Waialae C.C. it’s a fun course for the pros, especially if the wind doesn’t blow. The wind is the only true protection Waialae gets. If it blows, scores are reasonable, but without winds, scores go low, just as Justin Thomas showed us in 2017 by shooting 59. So with no winds this week, we could see a lot of low scoring. 

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• The first thing to realize is that Waialae is the complete opposite of the Plantation Course, which held the Sentry T of C last week. Driving accuracy meant nothing, as the Plantation course has the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. But this week is different; Waialae is one of the most demanding driving courses on tour each year. So it helps to drive the ball straight, so look at the driving accuracy charts and in the top-20, you may find your winner. Looking at the last couple of years’ driving accuracy list, funny how past champions in the previous decade, like Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Zach Johnson, Paul Goydos, David Toms, and Jerry Kelly, have ranked high.
• Another critical stat to look at is total driving which combines distance with accuracy and looks for the leaders in this stat playing at the Sony to do well.
• On a scale of 1 to 10, hitting greens is essential, with ten being the most critical, giving hitting greens a 7. Still, you can’t dismiss this stat since 1997, 14 of the last 21 champions have been in the top ten in this stat, and none of them were worst than 20th.  That is until 2021 when winner Kevin Na hit 55 of the greens and ranked T-29th.  Even worst was last year when Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of the 72 greens and ranked T-36th.  In the previous year, 2019, Matt Kuchar led the stat hitting 60 of 72 greens, he joined Jimmy Walker in 2015 and John Huston in 2008 as the three champions to lead the greens hit category since 1997.
• Putting is another important stat, but like hitting greens, I give it a 6 on a scale of 1 to 10. What I found interesting in this stat was making putts over ten feet, look for those types to do well. In diving into Shotlink stats for putting inside of 10 feet for 2023  Maverick McNealy, Harry Higgs, and S.H. Kim are a top-ten players in the field this week. Last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama was 15th, while in the previous year, Kevin Na was T-46th.  2020 champion Cameron Smith was 10th, in 2019 Matt Kuchar was T-11th, 2018, champion Patton Kizzire was 4th in this stat. 2017 champion Justin Thomas was 11th, 2016 champion Fabian Gomez was T-32nd, in 2015 Jimmy Walker was T-6th in putts made from 10 to 15 feet, while 2013 champion Russell Henley was 2nd in putts made between 10 and 15 feet and was 6th in putts made between 15 and 20 feet
• More important stats this week are picking a high on the par breaker list. Tom Kim and Brian Harman are in the top ten.
• Finally, the par 4s at Waialae is U.S. Open-caliber, they are tough and rank on top of the tour as the toughest in golf. Again in looking at the winners going back to 2000, when changes were made to reduce par from 72 to 70, every champion was between 2 under and 10 under. Last year Hideki Matsuyama was 12 under on them, while in the previous year, Kevin Na was 9 under. In 2020 Cameron Smith was 4 under when he won last year, Matt Kuchar was 11 under, in 2018, Patton Kizzire was 8 under, 2017 winner Justin Thomas was 15 under, while Fabian Gomez was 12 under the year before. In 2015 Jimmy Walker was 16 under, the previous year, he was 10 under. In 2013 Russell Henley had the tournament best in this stat, playing the par 4s in an incredible 17 under. In looking at those playing the par 4s the best on tour in 2023 these players are in the top ten playing Sony; Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, Taylor Montgomery, and J.J. Spaun.