BlogThe American Express Preview and Picks

The Buzz

For years the event was one of the top events and never had to worry about sponsorship as Chrysler was a part of the event since its early years.  But when Chrysler dropped sponsorship in 2008, it left the tournament very venerable.  It no longer had Bob Hope’s influence, who grew too old to participate in the 90s, and when he died in 2003, the event was in chaos.  With Hope, the event had a firm footing as players loved to be a part of the event, and they got the best of stars playing with the players.  But just after Hope died, the stars didn’t show up, and players found participating in a five-day, 90-hole event too much.  This event’s difference was that it was played in five days on four different courses, and the pro was paired with four amateurs.  The AT&T Pebble Beach was over four days over three courses, but it paired the golfer with a celebrity for the 3 days in which each pairing was two professionals with two amateurs.  So this was more of a team event between the player and amateur.  But the Hope had a professional with four different amateurs over four days, players hated this more and more.

This went on for three years after Chrysler left, and after the 2011 event, many thought the tournament was finished. That wasn’t the case, Tim Finchem and the Tour arranged with Bill Clinton to get his foundation involved and then got Humana to take over sponsorship.  The format changed from a 90-hole tournament to 72 holes, which help coax more players to attend.  Humana stuck around for four years before leaving as the sponsor, but the tour got CareerBuilders to step in and take over through 2021, so it was thought that the event was on a substantial foundation.  But CareerBuilder’s stepped away after 2018, and things got foggy again.  The event went on in 2019 without a sponsor, while another was found, which just happened to be American Express.

A sponsor was easier to find because of what the tournament did after the 2014 event was played.  The most popular home venue for the tournament was the Palmer Course, which was the home course for 14 of the 17 years between 1999 and 2015.  But after 2015, the Palmer private and Nicklaus private didn’t want to be a part of the tournament. It was a terrible deal for tournament officials because they realized the importance of the Palmer course after a disastrous change in 2006 when the event was played at the Classic Club for three years.  Along with the PGA Tour, Tournament officials made what could have been a very controversial decision to bring the Stadium Course out of retirement, the Pete Dye design course, which held the event in 1987 to a lot of complaints.

Back then, the course was stunning on television, but the players hated it.  In the age of persimmon drivers and balata balls, the players thought the Dye track was too hard and “gimmicky”  with its island green, 20-foot-deep bunkers, a green surrounded by a nine-foot moat-style bunker.  Hitting drives was demanding because if the fairways were missed, the ball’s chances are in a bush or behind a tree.  The course was the most penal course in the Palm Springs area and the country.  On top of that, the players hated how long it took to play.  Playing with amateurs, it took over six hours to get around.

The players demonized the course as being too hard, and it was.  Over the course of 25 years, all the courses that held the Desert Classic ranked very easily and knew as places to make lots of eagles and birdies.  But that wasn’t the case with PGA West in 1987. The field played two rounds on the course in 1987, and they didn’t like it at all.  It played to a 74.157 average for the week,  two shots over par for the field.  It ranked as the 7th hardest course that year, with the players loudly voicing their displeasure in the days after Corey Pavin won.  When the Tour dropped the TPC Stadium Course a few weeks later, it made many players very happy, and it was thought that it would never have another PGA Tour event.

In 1987 of the 18 holes played at PGA West, 16 of them were played over par.  The only ones under were the par 5, 8th, and the par 4, 12th. Hard to believe that three of the four par 5s were over par, and the 11th hole played to a 5.308 average.  In the 35 years since, only ten par 5s played harder, with the 14th at Pebble Beach playing the hardest.

So the question in 2016 was if players thought that PGA West, which was impossible 29 years previous, would play differently?  Over the three decades, the course was softened.  Bushes and small trees that use to line the fairways had been removed, making the fairways more generous.  The moat bunker at 12 is gone, and with golf equipment better and the course gaining only 190 yards, it still looked speculator on TV but didn’t kill the pros. When the course returned in 2016, it played to an average of 70.818, making it the 41st hardest of 50 courses.  In 1987, 16 of the 18 holes played over par.  In 2016 only seven played over par.  More importantly, the players loved playing the course; many thought it was one of the best courses of the year.  So going into the 2017 event, the course was again the star.  Things didn’t change that year as the course played to an average of 71.588 and was the 30th hardest course of the year (mostly because of the wet weather all four days).  Despite it being harder, there was nothing but praise as players loved the Stadium Course.  In 2018 things were more of the same, it played to a 71.18 average and was the 36th hardest course for the year.  In 2019 the course played to a 70.24 scoring average and was the 40th hardest course for 2019. In 2020 the course played to a 70.36 average and was the 36th hardest course.  In 2021 it played to a 70.81 average and was the 36th hardest (out of 51 courses).  Last year it played to a 70.57 average and was the 37th hardest course.  So the course went from one of the most difficult golf courses to one very manageable.  More importantly, players have loved the course, so it’s now become a fixture for this event.

Major changes for 2021

With the solid footings of American Express, the event looked like it would have a bright and fun future for many more years.  But with the Pandemic out of hand in California, significant changes were made.  The most brutal change for the tournament was the pro-am portion was dropped, so no amateurs partners.  With the amateurs being dropped, that meant that 624 players wouldn’t be playing, so the sponsors illuminated one course, which was played on just two courses.  Because the Nicklaus course shares the same clubhouse with the Stadium course, they had to drop LaQuinta, which has been a regular course since it joined the rota in 1963.  In the 58 years before 2021, it only missed nine events in 1980, 1987, 1989, 1990,1993, 1996,1999, 2002, and 2009.

But the big deal was that players got to play the Stadium Course for three of the four days and television, which means getting more marquee players on TV.

Reverting back for 2022.

So things are back to normal, the amateurs are back, and La Quinta Country Club is back in the rota, holding one of the four rounds.  This will be a special year for La Quinta as it will be the 51st time the American Express is being played on it.  It’s funny, when La Quinta debuted in 1964, it was considered a very difficult course with its tight fairways and small greens.  Funny how things have evolved in the 58 years since it’s gone from one of the toughest courses on tour to one of the easiest today.

Some other things that are back is fans, and along with the fans, they enjoyed some of the post-round concerts.  Last year Maroon 5 with Adam Levine played on Friday while Brad Paisley played on Saturday.  This year on Friday, Gwen Stefani will play, and Saturday will be Darius Rucker.

So how many of you know who Bob Hope is???

For many, you ask them who Bob Hope was. Unfortunately, many don’t realize his importance in the entertainment and golfing world.  He was probably the most significant comedian between the 1930s and 90s and hosted this event between 1965 and his death in 2003 at age 100. Hope’s name was the fixture until it was dropped in 2012.

Yes, Bob Hope would be proud that the event is still popular today.  Of course, this event has competition as it’s played the same week as the Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour.  Abu Dhabi has an excellent field of marquee players like Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, and Tyrrell Hatton are in the field.  Another disadvantage is due to LIV Golf.  Phil Mickelson, who use to host this event along with defending champion Hudson Swafford, Patrick Reed, and Pat Perez, can’t play in the event they won.  Still, the field has the best field it ever has had, with ten of the top 20 in the world in the field

So will the low scoring continue at the American Express?

Scoring has always been low in this event.  Since it went from 90 holes to 72 in 2011, the range of scores has been from 20 under par (in 2017) to as low as 28 under by Patrick Reed in 2014.  59 has been shot twice in this event, first by David Duval in the final round at the Palmer Course in 1999.  In 2017 Adam Hadwin shot 59 at La Quinta.  As for the Stadium course, Patrick Cantlay shot 61 in the final round last year.  Showing how you have to shoot low, of the 10 players that finished in the top ten in last year’s American Express, only one round saw a score over par for any round. Of the 40 rounds played by those 10 players, 32 rounds were in the 60s, so we can see that scoring will be low.

In the two weeks of play in Hawaii, Jon Rahm was 27 under at Kapalua, while Si Woo Kim was 18 under in the Sony Open.

So let’s play a little Monday quarterbacking and pick who will go low this week.  One thing, both Rahm and Kim are playing, and of the previous nine fall events, only Tom Kim (who won Shriners Children’s with a 24 under total) is the only winner of 2023 in the field at the American Express.

Si Woo Kim and Jon Rahm could be very good picks since both of them have won the Amex.  In four tries, Rahm is 66 under par, Si Woo Kim is 56 under, and Tom Kim, he played once at the American Express and missed the cut in 2021

Who else should we be looking at?  First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.  

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

Of course, a couple of people off the top, Jon Rahm who won this event in 2018.  Also, one of my favorites, Adam Hadwin, was T-6th in 2016, 2nd in 2017, T-3rd in 2018, and T-2nd in 2019.  Hadwin didn’t play in 2020 because his wife had the couple’s first child, but when he got back in 2021, he had a disappointing T-32nd finish.  Last year he was T-25th.  Sungjae Lee is also another player who has played well in the Amex, he was T-12th in 2019, T-10th in 2020, T-12th in 2021, and T-11th last year  We also have to mention that Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler are playing.  Cantlay was T-9th in 2019, 2nd in 2021, and 9th last year, so he will create great interest.  The same with Scheffler, who was 3rd in 2020, missed the cut in 2021, and was T-25th last year.  Another player not to forget is Will Zalatoris, who was T-6th last year.  We also can’t forget about Tony Finau, who was T-14th in 2020, T-4th in 2021, and T-40th last year.

Off-the-wall players?

Many will not think of Lee Hodges, who was T-3rd in 2019 last year.  I mention Hodges because he shot a third-round 64 to lead but shot a final-round 70. It was his career-best finish.  Another player to watch is Andrew Putnam, who was T-4th last week at the Sony and has been in the top 25 in his last three Amex starts.

One last player to think about is Rickie Fowler.  Yes, he has not played well the last two years, he was T-10th in 2020, but we can see signs that he possibly is breaking out of his slump.  He was T-2nd at the Zozo Championship in October, think he is ready to play well again.

Course information:

A unique event that will return to three courses this year, with Pete Dye Stadium hosting two of the four rounds.

7,187 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 76.1 rating and slope rating of 150 from the championship tees, making it one of the country’s hardest.

The course was designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1986.  Dye was hired by the Landmark developing company, which was big in the 80s with over a dozen courses worldwide.  Landmark owners Ernie Vossler and Joe Walser gave Dye the task of building the most challenging course in the World.

Along with the 1987 Desert Classic, the Skins Game was held on the course between 1986 and 1991.  PGA Tour qualifying school was held six times, the last being 2008, but the hint that the course was becoming more playable was when the Champions Tour had the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on it in 1995 and ’96.  The seniors took a liking to the course, which was softened for that event.

The average green size is 6,500 square feet, and the course has nearly a hundred bunkers around it.  Water comes into play on nine of the holes, and the Desert Classic course record is 61 by Patrick Cantlay in the final round in 2021.

Last year the course played to a 70.57 average and was the 37th hardest course on tour (out of 50 courses).

Now the course may be one of the most intimidating courses on the PGA Tour, but thanks to some work is very manageable.  In 2022, 480 rounds were played on it, with 87 rounds in the 70s, 141 under-par rounds, 26 rounds at even par and only 59 rounds over par.

Other courses used in the Rota:

• La Quinta C.C.
• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 74.2 rating and a slope rating of 136 from the championship tees

The course is private and not open to the public and returns to the rota after not being played in 2021.

La Quinta was designed by Billy Bell and Lawrence Hughes and opened in 1959.  In 1999, Robert Muir Graves and Damian Pascuzzo came in, and rebuilt all the greens, bunkers, and tees.  He has also taken all the water hazards on the course and made them all come into play. The flagpole at the first tee is the official flagpole from the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley. The Novotny family gave it to La Quinta Country Club in memory of Frank Capra, who was a living legend .

The average green size at La Quinta is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 101 bunkers.  There are five water hazards as eight holes are affected.  La Quinta was first used as a tournament course in 1964, and after this year will be a part of 51 of the 64 Desert Classic and historically been the hardest of the courses used.  It was the host course in 1970, 1977, 1980, and 1983.

Here is the scoring average of the La Quinta course compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

• 2022 – 69.917 average, 8th easiest of the 50 courses used for the year
• 2020 – 69.176 average, easiest of the 41 courses used for the year
• 2019 – 68.718 average, easiest of the 49 courses used for the year
• 2018 – 68.831 average, easiest of the 51 courses used for the year
• 2017 – 69.635 average, 2nd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2016 – 69.148 average, 3rd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2015 – 70.083 average, 6th easiest of 52 courses used for the year
• 2014 – 69.768 average, 4th easiest of 48 courses used for the year
• 2013 – 69.487 average, 3rd easiest of 43 courses used for the year
• 2012 – 70.678 average, 41st hardest of 49 courses used for the year
• 2011 – 70.024 average, 43rd hardest of 51 courses used for the year
• 2010 – 69.969 average, 47th hardest of 52 courses used for the year

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,147 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 143 from the championship tees.

The course is open to the public.

The course is a tamer version of its neighbor, the Stadium course.  Look for lots of birdies to be made as the fairways are generous, and the greens should be easy to hit.  The Nicklaus course held the final PGA Tour qualifying tournament on the course in 1988, ’90. ’93, 2000, ’02, ’04, ’06, ’08, ’12, and ’13, so many of the players in the field will have played it.

Last year the course was used for the sixth straight year and had blended very well into the tournament.  The course had a 70.256 average making it the 39th hardest of 50 courses used on the PGA Tour in 2022.

COURSE KEYS

We won’t have course keys since the event was played on three different courses in previous years.

DraftKings tips

Historical ParBreakers

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 season and going through the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, a total of 59 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top-50 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,500
• Tony Finau – $10,200
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,100
• Xander Schauffele- $10,000
• Sungjae Im – $9,800
• Will Zalatoris – $9,600
• Tom Kim – $9,500
• Sam Burns – $9,400
• Brian Harman – $9,300
• Si Woo Kim – $9,200
• Cameron Young – $9.100
• Aaron Wise – $9,000

A great field this week and a lot of great picks.  Off the bat, you can’t go wrong with Jon Rahm at $10,800.  He has played the best of any player, winning three events in his last five starts.  In eight of his last nine starts, he has been in the top ten, and after seeing him play well at the Sentry T of C, you have to think he will do well in an event he has won.  Yes, you can’t go wrong with him, he averages 85.5 DraftKings points per event.  Next is Scottie Scheffler at $10,500, he too, has played well, he has finished in the top ten in six of his last seven starts.  Was T-7th at the Sentry, and now his record is mixed in the Amex, was 3rd the first time he played in 2020, but since missed the cut in 2021 and T-25th in 2022.  Sorry even with him averaging 90 DraftKings points, I feel there are better players with good value, so pass on him.  Tony Finau at $10,200 is also a pass for me, sure he was 7th at the Sentry and Hero, plus he won at Houston.  He was 4th in the Amex in 2021, but that is his only top-ten in five starts.  Also don’t like that he averages just 76.8 DraftKings points per event.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,100 is also playing well and in his last three Amex starts was T-9th in 2019, 2nd in 2021, and 9th last year.  Of all the players in the field, his 90.8 Draftkings points per event are the best.  Xander Schauffele at $10,000, is a big no for me.  He says he has suffered back pains in his last two events and was forced to withdraw from the Sentry in the second round.  So no matter what he says, worried that he won’t be 100%.  Sungjae Im at $9,800 is a tough choice because the price is too high, and he missed the cut at the Sony last week.  He has only played well once in 2023, and that was a 7th-place finish in Las Vegas, which was in the desert and in looking at his Amex record in the desert, he has four top-12 finishes.  Still, at the end of the day, his 77.8 DraftKings points per round make his price too high to take.  Now Will Zalatoris at $9,600 is worth the gamble.  In his first start in four months at the Sentry T of C, he played well and had no pain or problems in his back.  So you have to feel that his work in altering his swing was worth it.  Also, this is an event that many poor putters have won, so this could be a good week for Will.  Tom Kim at $9,500 is a no for me.  Yes, he got the bad end of tee times and had to play in wind, but have to think he may be a bit tired.  Sam Burns at $9,400 is way too high for his accomplishments or lack of.  Since finishing T-4th at the Canadian Open back in June, he has played in 12 events, and his only top-ten was a T-7th at the CJ Cup.  He does have a T-6th at the 2020 Amex, but that is his only good start in three tries, so take a pass on him.  Yes, Brian Harman at $9,300 is a lot, and he was T-16th at the Sentry and T-32nd at the Sony, but he was T-3rd last year at the Amex, T-8th in 2021 and T-3rd in 2017, so a lot of good vibes for him at this event.  Si Woo Kim at $9,200 is worth the price considering he won last week and won the Amex two years ago.  But his track record with victories is poor, in his three PGA Tour wins, he has missed the cut in his next start so take a pass on Kim this year.  Cameron Young at $9.100 is a tossup for me, like that he was 3rd at the Hero and T13th at the Sentry T of C, and last year was T-40th in his only Amex start.  He is high, but this could be a good event for him.  Aaron Wise at $9,000 is a no for me, he has missed the cut in his last three Amex starts and has only played well once since his runner-up finish at the Memorial.  So take a pass on him.

I like this feature where we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the start of the 2022 season to see how they do in making cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.

• Thomas Detry made 10 in 10 starts for 100%.  His Drafkings cost is  $7,600
• Jon Rahm made 21 in 22 starts for 95%.  His Drafkings cost is  $10,800
• Patrick Cantlay made 20 in 22 starts for 91%.  His Drafkings cost is  $10,100
• Taylor Montgomery made 9 in 10 starts for 90%.  His Drafkings cost is  $8,900
• Xander Schauffele made 21 in 24 starts for 88%.  His Drafkings cost is  $10,000
• Tom Kim made 15 in 17 starts for 88%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,500
• Scottie Scheffler made 26 in 30 starts for 87%.  His Drafkings cost is  $10,500
• Sungjae Im made 27 in 32 starts for 84%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,800
• Aaron Wise made 24 in 29 starts for 83%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,000
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout made 24 in 29 starts for 83%.  His Drafkings cost is  $7,700
• Brian Harman made 27 in 33 starts for 82%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,300
• Sahith Theegala made 32 in 39 starts for 82%.  His Drafkings cost is  $8,600
• Adam Hadwin made 25 in 31 starts for 81%.  His Drafkings cost is  $8,200
• Ben Griffin made 8 in 10 starts for 80%.  His Drafkings cost is  $7,200
• Taylor Pendrith made 20 in 25 starts for 80%.  His Drafkings cost is  $8,000
• Tony Finau made 23 in 29 starts for 79%.  His Drafkings cost is  $10,200
• K.H. Lee made 27 in 34 starts for 79%.  His Drafkings cost is  $8,300
• Si Woo Kim made 27 in 34 starts for 79%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,200
• Denny McCarthy made 29 in 37 starts for 78%.  His Drafkings cost is  $7,800
• Will Zalatoris made 19 in 25 starts for 76%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,600
• Sam Burns made 22 in 29 starts for 76%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,400
• Cameron Young made 22 in 29 starts for 76%.  His Drafkings cost is  $9,100

(The ones in bold are what I think are a great bargain.)

Here are those players with costs between $7,500 and $8,900 that are worth the price:

Here is your value, but again they are priced in the high sections.  First is Taylor Montgomery at $8,900, yes he is a rookie and playing in all of these events for the first time, but he has been spotless.  He has made all 8 cuts in eight starts and finished in the top 15 seven times.  He was T-12th at the Sony Open and, in ten events, averages 85 DraftKings points.  Don’t see him slowing down any.  The same with Cam Davis at $8,800, since missing the cut at the Wells Fargo in May, he has played in 17 worldwide events and made 16 cuts with eight top-20 finishes.  I worry a bit that he only averages 66.8 DraftKings Points, but he played well in three Amex starts, and his last start in 2021 was 3rd.  We have seen the same fine play from Andrew Putnam, priced at $8,700.  He was T-4th at the Sony, was T-2nd at the Zozo, and has finished in the top 21 in four of his last five Amex starts.  This may be the perfect week for him to get his first PGA Tour win.  Another good buy is Sahith Theegala at $8,600, he was T-2nd at the RSM and 33rd at the Sentry T of C.  In his only Amex start was T-33rd last year.  Tom Hoge is $8,400 and we like that he was 2nd at the Amex last year and T-6th in 2020.  After finishing T-3rd at the Sentry T of C, he was T-41st at the Sony.  I don’t like that he averages 63.8 DraftKings points, but that is mostly due to him missing 11 cuts in his last 22 starts.  We have to pick Adam Hadwin at $8,200 just because of his great record in this event.  He has made seven of seven cuts and was T-6th in 2016, 2nd in 2017, T-3rd in 2018, and T-2nd in 2019.  His wife had a baby, which caused him to miss the 2020 Amex, and he was T-32nd in 2021 and T-25th last year, so a very good pick.  Rickie Fowler is $7,800 and it may be worth the gamble.  He hasn’t played since the CJ Cup, but he has been working on a new swing.  If he can get it going early, he could have a good week.  Patrick Rodgers at $7,700 is also a good bet at a good price.  Since missing the cut at the Fortinet, he has made seven straight cuts with four top-16 finishes, like that in those seven starts has averaged 87.1 DraftKings points.  Last in this category is Thomas Detry at $7,600.  He got on the PGA Tour via the Korn Ferry Tour and has been good in 2023, making four top-15 finishes in five starts.  In his last ten DraftKings events averaged 86.3 points per event, as he has made every cut in every event.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Will Gordon is only $7,400 and a very good buy.  In his only Amex start, he was T-64th in 2021, in eight 2023 PGA Tour starts has made eight cuts with a best finish at the Mayakoba, a T-3rd.  Last week at the Sony, he was T-28th.  David Lipsky at $7,300 could be a bargain, but a warning he does miss a lot of cuts.  But he was T-14th at the Amex last year and T-4th last week at the Sony, so worth the gamble.  Now Greyson Sigg at $7,100 is probably a much better choice.  That is because he has been more consistent, making all seven of his 2023 cuts, he was T-48th last week at the Sony and T-25th at the Amex last year.  Another person to think of is Byeong Hun An at $7,100.  He was T-8th in his last Amex start in 2021 and was T-12th last week in Hawaii.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Desert Classic

The key stat for the winner:

• With the addition of the Pete Dye Stadium Course, it now gives the tournament a bit more of a challenge.  You won’t find any 59s shot on this course, in its first year, 2016, 65 was the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2017 Dominic Bozzelli shot 64 in the first round, making it the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course, which was one of the 50 rounds shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2018 Kevin Chappell shot 64 in the second round, and Sam Saunders shot 64 in the final round, the low at the Stadium Course.  In 2019 several 64s were shot at PGA West, but the possibility of someone shooting 63 or lower is small.  In 2020 we saw a new course record: Sam Burns and Abraham Ancer shot 63. Now Patrick Cantlay broke all of the records in 2021 when he shot 61 in the final round.  Last year the low round on the Pete Dye course was 64 by Lee Hodges. Still, the key here is that low scores aren’t shot on this course like the others.
• The most important stat is how many birdies are allowed on the three courses.  The rules were changed in 2021 because of COVID, and only two courses were used.  But last year, the three courses returned, and we can see that 658 birdies with 30 eagles were made at La Quanta, 83 birdies and 17 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 1006 birdies with 16 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.  So a key stat to look at for this week is Par Breakers on tour.  Of the top 10 on that list playing this week are Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, and Tom Hoge, all good picks this week.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• This week the pros will play over three courses in four days, quite a learning scale with very little time to prepare and learn two new courses.  Making it even harder for those coming from Hawaii unless they took red-eyes on Sunday Night or missed the cut; they won’t get to start practicing until Tuesday.  Still, it’s better than the days when this event was played over five days.
• Another problem for the pros, the first three days, they play with two amateurs.  So patience is needed to tolerate those five-plus hour rounds.  Look for experienced players to do well, those with a long track record at the Desert Classic should be your favorites. Since 1984, the champion has averaged winning in his 6th start.  But things have changed over the years, last year Hudson Swafford played in his ninth start when he won the Amex for the fourth time.  In 2021 Si Woo Kim played in his fourth Amex.  In 2019 Adam Long was playing in his first American Express, in 2018, Jon Rahm won on his second try in the event.  In 2017 Hudson Swafford won on his fourth start, while in 2016, Jason Dufner won on his 7th try.  In 2015 Bill Haas won on his 11th try, while the year before, Patrick Reed won in only his second start.  In 2013, Brian Gay won on his 12th American Express start, while 2012 winner Mark Wilson made his fourth start when he won.  Experience is a must in this event.  Yes, Adam Long won in 2019 in his first Amex, Jhonathan Vegas won the first time around in 2011, and Charley Hoffman in 2007 was the first player to make his Hope debut a victory since Donnie Hammond did it in 1986.  Still consider Long, Hoffman, Vegas, and Reed are exceptions to the rule.
• As we said before, the winner will have to make lots of birdies and eagles to win. When it was played over 90 holes, Phil Mickelson made 37 birdies in 2004, while Justin Leonard made 33 in 2005.   D.J. Trahan made 35 in 2008, along with Pat Perez in 2009,  Bill Haas made 34 in 2010, and Jhonathan Vegas made 34 in 2011.  When the event changed to 72 holes in 2012, Mark Wilson made 24 birdies, while Brian Gay made 27 in 2013. In 2014, Patrick Reed went crazy with 30 birdies and two eagles, while in 2015, Bill Haas made one eagle and 22 birdies.  In 2016, Jason Dufner went low on new courses and had 30 birdies.  In 2017 Hudson Swafford had 26 birdies.  In 2018 Jon Rahm had an eagle and 26 birdies; in 2019, Adam Long made 3 eagles and 24 birdies.  In 2020 Andrew Landry made 31 birdies and not eagles, which helps make the point that to win, they will have to birdie at least 3 out of every ten holes played.  2021 was a bit different since the Stadium Course was played three times, and winner Si Woo Kim only made one eagle and 23 birdies.  Last year when the event returned to three courses, winner Hudson Swafford made 29 birdies and an eagle.
• Look at someone who destroys the par 5s.  The last 26 winners have averaged a bit under 14 under on them, with Phil Mickelson playing them in 14 under in 2002.  Mike Weir played them in 15 under in 2003, and Phil Mickelson played them in 12 under in 2004.    Justin Leonard played them in 10 under in 2005; Chad Campbell played them in 18 under in 2006, Charley Hoffman played them in 15 under in 2007, while D.J. Trahan was 13 under on them, with Pat Perez setting the record for playing them in 19 under in 2009.  Bill Haas played them in 16 under in 2010, while Jhonathan Vegas was 11 under the last year it was held at 90 holes.  In 2012, Mark Wilson was 15 under, while Brian Gay was 10 under in 2013.  In 2015 Patrick Reed was 14 under on them.  Jason Dufner went low in 2016, playing the par 5s in 12 under.  In 2017 Hudson Swafford broke tradition as he played the par 5s in 8 under, the first time since 1997 that someone was in single figures on the par 5s.  In 2018 Jon Rahm played the par 5s at 13 under par, while in 2019, Adam Long played them at 11 under par.  2020 winner Andrew Landry also played the par 5s in 11 under.  Even though Si Woo Kim had to play the Stadium Course three times, he did great on the par 5s, playing them in 13 under.  Last year Hudson Swafford was 12 under on the par 5s.
• Weather will be picture-perfect this year, with each day being in the mid-60s with very little wind.  Now over the last month, the La Quinta weather has been very wet with a lot of rain, so the courses could be softer than past years.