BlogAbu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Already the DP World Tour has played in six events, but this is the first event of the calendar year and the first of four Rolex Series events.  Next week the tour moves to Dubai, and then they will play in a series of events in Asia and South Africa.  For the three-week Asian Tour, it brings back the events that went away due to COVID, The Singapore Classic, Thailand Classic, and the Hero Indian Open.  This leads up to the Masters.

This desert swing used to have three events, but the Qatar Masters is now gone, and the Ras Al Khaimah Championship has now become the third event.  Another thing that has happened, we aren’t seeing an exodus of PGA Tour players in this week’s field.  The only full-time PGA Tour players in the field are Irishman Seamus Power and Austrian Sepp Straka, who are both playing for the first time.  Half a dozen Americans are in the field, but they play mostly in Europe.  American Patrick Reed is in the field due to him being a LIV player and unable to play on the PGA Tour.

A new home for the championship

After 15 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the event moved to the Yas Links Abu Dhabi last year. The Yas Island is Abu Dhabi’s premier leisure, retail, and entertainment hub, leading the way in supporting the emirate’s Economic Vision 2030. The new venue offers a unique blend of stunning views, first-class hospitality, and a diverse range of award-winning leisure and entertainment attractions, enhancing the experience for fans, whether they attend in person or watch from around the world.

The course was built by Kyle Phillips and has gotten a lot of great press. As the name suggests, the new venue has links feel to it, and with the wind in the weather forecast, it looks set to provide a fascinating test. The Abu Dhabi course was more traditional, while Yas Links will be more of a link feel, with holes that look like they’re being played in Scotland.

The venue seemed to be successful last year, but by moving away from Abu Dhabi, it seemed to take some of the steam out of the event by playing on a course with a lot of history on it.

This year’s field is missing a lot of players who were in the field last year, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Adam Scott.  The field does have Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Tyrrell Hatton, Ryan Fox, Seamus Power, and defending champion Thomas Pieters but it’s nothing compared to its heydey when in pre-covid days they got not only McIlroy in the field but also Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Matt Fitzpatrick, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Cantlay and Paul Casey

So does this mean that the PGA Tour has now kind of won the battle.  For the first time in years, the American Express has the better field as more Americans who didn’t go over to LIV golf are playing more on the PGA Tour

Course Information

• Yas Links Golf Club
• Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Par  36-36-72  Yardage 7,425

Yas Links is situated on the popular Yas Island. Designed by Kyle Phillips, this links-style course brings a fusion of desert landscapes and tough playing conditions with the aim of testing players to the maximum. With this being the inaugural event, it will be an interesting watch to see how the layout and the challenge fare against golf’s elite.

Because of the switch of courses, you may see some players that we aren’t familiar with doing well.  Last year saw players like Shubhankar Shama, James Morrison, and Jeff Winter in contention, that will be the case this year.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,800
• Shane Lowry – $10,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
• Alex Noren – $10,100
• Robert MacIntyre – $9,800
• Thomas Pieters – $9,600
• Seamus Power – $9,500
• Min Woo Lee – $9,400
• Patrick Reed – $9,300
• Ryan Fox – $9,200
• Victor Perez – $9,100
• Jordan L. Smith – $9,000

So it’s a brand new year for the European Tour and a different golf course for the second year in a year. Yas Links is a course that has more links feel and look. The big question is, will the marquee players do well and figure out the course, or will it be some new player who has a great week.

Tyrrell Hatton at $10,800 is the top dog and for a good reason.  He won the event in 2021 and was T-6th on the new course, so we can’t have any arguments on that.  The one thing that does bother me about Hatton, he hasn’t played competitively since finishing T-2nd at the DP World two months ago.  So could this be a problem, I don’t think so.  Last year Hatton played in one event, the Hero Challenge between Abu Dhabi and the DP World, and was able to finish T-6th on the new Yas Links Course, so it hopes to you.  Shane Lowry at $10,500, has the same problem, lack of playing time since the DP World.  But he did play in the Hero World Challenge and was T-12th last year,, still he is a past winner of this event but on a different course.  So he is a toss-up, think he will give you a top ten, but winning may not happen.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,300, has a similar problem, he played in the Hero but finished dead last and was T-5th at the DP World.  He did win the Nedbank, so his game has been ok of late.  My problem with him and the reason not to pick him, he was T-48th last year on the Yas Links, and that was after years of playing great and even winning at the Abu Dhabi Club.  Alex Noren at $10,100 is a tough choice. First, he hasn’t played in Abu Dhabi since 2017 and hasn’t played since DP World.  But he finished off the year with a T-2nd at DP World and T-4th in Houston, so he is a toss-up pick.  Robert MacIntyre at $9,800 is a no for me, he missed the cut last year at Yas Links and hasn’t played since the DP World finished T-34th.  Sure, he won the Italian Open in September, but that was long ago.  Thomas Pieters at $9,600 is another toss-up, he hasn’t played since the Alfred Dunhill links in September.  The reason for his absence his girlfriend and him had the couple’s second child in October and took the time off.  He played last week in the Hero Cup and is the defending champion, so he is a good pick.  Seamus Power at $9,500 is a thought, he has never played in this event but has played well of late.  Yes, he was T-25th at the Sentry T of C but ended his year with a win in Bermuda and T-3rd at Mayakoba, and T-5th at RSM.   We think of Powers like Shane Lowry, we expect big things to come from both of them.  Min Woo Lee at $9,400, is the hottest player on the DP World Tour right now.  Since missing the cut last September at the Italian Open, he has been in the top 12 in his next six events, including finishing 3rd at the Australian Open, Andalucia Masters, and Acciona Open.  He was T-36th at Yas Links last year, and despite the little knowledge of him, we will have to think about picking him, even at the high price of $9,400.  For Patrick Reed at $9,300, we have seen very little of him since playing on LIV GOlf.  For him, it’s been a great success, he has earned over $21 million in just seven events, with a best finish being 2nd in Bangkok.  So we can’t say no to him, even with no record of this event.  In events sanctioned by the World Golf Rankings in the last six months, he missed the cut at the French Open, was T-5th at the BMW PGA, and T-31st in Singapore.  So is he a good pick for this week, I am taking a pass on him. Ryan Fox at $9,200 is a toss-up pick, his record is not great in six events in Abu Dhabi, and after a great September/October came back to earth, missing the cut at the Australian PGA and T-38th at the Australian Open.  Still, he is a talent, and anything is possible with him.  Victor Perez at $9,100 is very hard to gauge, he seems to have a great start every six events, and he has no real consistency.  In Abu Dhabi, he was T-2nd in 2020, but since was T-46th and T-58th last year.  So Perez is a no for me.  On the other side of the scale, its a yes for me on Jordan L. Smith at $9,000.  He hasn’t played since the DP World but finished the year great, including a victory at the Portugal Masters.  His record is ok in Abu Dhabi, he was T-12th last year at Yas Links.

Here are those players with costs between $7,500 and $8,900 that are worth the price:

This is the picks of players you must master; I feel the winner will come in this group. Players like Adrian Meronk at $8,900, could do well. He won the Australian Open and was T-7th at the DP World.  Has not had much success in Abu Dhabi, withdrawing last year and missing the cut in 2020.  Antoine Rozner at $8,700, needs consideration, he won his last start in Mauritius, not a big event, but a win is a win.  He missed the cut last year at Yas Links and was T-16th in 2021.  Adrian Otaegui at $8,500, is a very hard choice.  He has been great on the European Tour with a 2nd at the Alfred Dunhill and winning the Andalucia Masters, but in Abu Dhabi, he has missed his last four cuts.  Still have to take him based on his recent record.  Thriston Lawrence at $8,200, is too good to pass up, he is playing in Abu Dhabi for the first time, but he has won twice in the last five months on the European Tour.  Sepp Straka at $8,100 is a great pick, yes he is up and down and could miss the cut one week and finish 2nd the next week.  He was T-21st at the Sentry T of C and T-10th at the Hero Challenge.  Think he is priced just right to pick him.  Sam Horsfield at $8,000, is one of those folks not many have seen since he plays LIV Golf.  Only has one top-ten on that tour in eight events, but has won $5.5 million, so he is riding in style.  I like him because he was T-12th last year at Yas Links and T-12th in this event in 2020.  Another LIV golfer to consider is Bernd Wiesberger.  He didn’t play that well but still won $2 million in eight starts, he has played 11 times at Abu Dhabi and was T-12th last year.  Adri Arnaus is not one of my main choices, but with his price being $7,800, he is a good pick because of how steady he has played in Abu Dhabi, making four of four cuts, he was T-20th last year.  An even better pick is Scott Jamieson at $7,600  He has played great in Abu Dhabi, in his last three starts were T-10th last year, T-16th in 2021, and T-8th in 2020.  He has been consistent on the DP Tour and was T-11th in his last start at the Dunhill Championship.  Alexander Bjork at $7,500, is in the same boat making his last four cuts in Abu Dhabi, finishing T-20th last year.  He has also made cuts on the European Tour and was T-32nd in his last start at the Andalucia Masters.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Want a cheap player off the bat like Yannik Paul at $7,400.  Playing in Abu Dhabi for the first time but had a great ending to the 2022 year with a win at the Mallorca Open.  Oliver Bekker at $7,300 is worth looking at, he has made his last eight cuts on the DP World Tour and was T-7th at the Mauritius Open and T-4th at the Alfred Dunhill.  Find it hard to believe you can get Justin Harding for just $7,300.  He has been consistent in his three starts in Abu Dhabi, finishing T-25th last year.  Many don’t know about his, yes he joined LIV golf and only played in the first three events finishing T-10th in London, T-8th at Portland, and T-19th at Bedminster.  Hard to believe that was his last start on that tour, his last start was T-23rd at the BMW PGA.  Nothing seems to be wrong with him physically, and he has made all three cuts in his three Abu Dhabi starts, so jump all over Harding.  Another solid pick is Jason Scrivener at $7,100.  He was 2nd in Abu Dhabi in 2021 and missed the cut last year.  Has been consistent on the DP World Tour and was T-2ndf at the Australian PGA Championship.  Another good pick is Rafa Cabrera Bello at $7,000 the reason I say that he has made his last seven cuts in Abu Dhabi was 2nd last year at Yas Links and has four top-ten finishes in a place that seems special to him.  Also, a good choice is Pablo Larrazabal at $6,900 he won in Abu Dhabi in 2014 and was T-2nd in 2017.  He was T-25th last year and has been consistent on the DP World Tour.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Yas Links Golf Club

The key stat for the winner:

• There are very few key stats since they are playing on a new course for just the second time. Everything is up in the air as we see what is good, challenging, and straightforward.
• A new course gives that newcomer a good chance, so don’t be surprised to see a non-favorite do well.  Last year, of course hitting greens was important, along with putting well.
• Guess what the weather is going to be? Easy, it will be perfect with temperatures in the mid-70s and no rain. The wind has been a problem in the past, but this year it won’t be a problem for players as each day, it will blow between 10 and 15 mph.
• One last thing, it’s easy to say that a Tyrrell Hatton or a Tommy Fleetwood could win. Both players are great drivers and will give them a significant advantage as both can overpower the course. But a case in point, yes, Hatton and Fleetwood are the game’s stars, but you never know from week to week who could be on top.
• But when you think about how easy it will be for Hatton or Fleetwood to win, remember that guys like Lee Westwood, Gary Stal, Pablo Larrazabal, and Robert Rock were not considered “favorites” in the years they won, so the point is don’t be surprised if the winner isn’t a marquee name.  Maybe Seamus Power, Ryan Fox, or even a Rafael Cabrera-Bello will surprise a few folks.