Farmers Insurance Open Key Fantasy Stats

Farmers Insurance Open

January 25th – 28th, 2023

Torrey Pines South Course

San Diego, CA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,765

Purse: $8.7 Million

with $1,566,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Luke List

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for stats from 2023.
The event is played on two courses, so the data are only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one-round data from the North Course.
The scoring average of the Torrey South Course field last year was 72.35, and it was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2021 was 73.34, and it was the 4th hardest course on tour. In 2020 the scoring average was 72.53, and it was the 7th hardest course on tour. In 2019 was 71.73, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour. That is the first time that the South Course played under par since 2001, when it played to an average of 71.82. Days after that event, bulldozers came in, and the course was completely renovated for the 2008 U.S. Open by Rees Jones. So why did the course play so easily in 2019? The weather couldn’t be better, warm all four days with wind under 10 mph each day. With that, Justin Rose shot 21 under par, the lowest winning score since Tiger Woods shot 22 under in 1999. Of course, the wind is always a factor, in 2018, with low temperatures the first three days and winds gusting up to 25 mph, the scoring average was 72.81, the 8th hardest course for the year. In 2017 it was windy each day, and the average was 72.77, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It was almost 2 shots easier than in 2016, when it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 74.50. That year, they had high winds so severe that they had to finish the round on Monday, which is why the change happened. 72.947 has been the South Course average since 2016, but the overall tournament average has been 72.187. That’s because one round is played on the North Course, which has been a layup in past years, but the course had some changes done to it. In 2021 the North Course played to a 70.13 average, making it the 44th hardest course on tour. In 2020 the North Course played to a 70.57 average, while in 2019, it played to a 69.84 average, which was down because of the excellent weather conditions. Yes, the course was changed in 2016, making it tougher, but it has historically been about two shots easier. But in 2022, the North Course was very easy, with a 68.77 average, the 48th easiest average on the PGA Tour. So why did last year play so easily? Weather, last year the temperatures went from 65 to a high of 70 on Saturday. With both courses on the Pacific, wind plays a key role, and all four days saw the wind blowing between 6 to 12 mph, very mild conditions.
Our course key is based on the South Course, which underwent another renovation before the 2020 event to prepare for the 2021 U.S. Open. There have been numerous subtle changes on the South Course, but the most striking alterations were made to the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make driving harder in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.
Still, with the course lying on a bluff over the Pacific Ocean, mother nature always plays its part with possible fog this time of year, rain, and wind. For this year, despite the area getting over 7 inches of rain in the last month, for this week, the temperatures will be mild in the low-60s each day, with no rain or fog, and winds will blow each day at around between 9 to 13 mph, very gentle. So look for low scores again.

Driving is essential in looking at Torrey South’s stats last year. Last year it ranked T-27th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and 9th in driving accuracy. In 2021 the course ranked 25th on the PGA Tour in driving distance but 7th in driving accuracy. This stat has always been important, it also ranked 1st in 2019 and ’18, and since 2014 it hasn’t ranked over 9th inaccuracy. So do you have to drive it straight to play well on the South Course? Not really, in looking at all the champions of the Farmers going back to 1997, only four were in the top ten in driving accuracy. Phil Mickelson was T-7th in 2000, Ben Crane was T-8th in 2010, Justin Rose was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Reed was T-9th in 2021. But in looking at the driving distance, it’s a different story. Of the 24 winners since 1999, 13 of them were in the top 11 as 2021 winner Patrick Reed was T-52nd, but 2019 winner Justin Rose was 11th, and 2018 winner Jason Day was 2nd. So driving is essential, the combination of hitting it far and straight. Last year Luke List was 12th in driving distance and T-44th in accuracy.
Another vital stat is proximity to the hole for those that hit the fairway. Last year the field hit an average of 37 feet, 1 inch to the hole, making it T-13th hardest on the Tour. In hitting greens, the field averaged 62.62, which ranked T-16th. In 2021 the field hit an average of 37 feet, 11 inches to the hole, making it the 20th hardest on tour. As for rough proximity, the course was 8th hardest last year, with the field hitting an average of 48′ 8 inches. So with hitting into the fairway and hitting it far, our second important stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. Last year’s winner Luke List ranked 4th in Proximity to the hole and T-11th in Greens in Regulation. 2021 winner Patrick Reed was 39th, while 2020 winner Marc Leishman was 5th, the same as 2019 winner Justin Rose. But the difference was Leishman was T-14th in greens hit while Rose was 2nd.
Our third category is putting inside 10 feet. In 2020, ’21, and last year it ranked 2nd hardest as it’s always in the top ten. As a matter of fact, the greens were the hardest to putt in 2017 and 2016. Several factors have made Torrey Pines the most challenging greens to make putts inside 10 feet over the years. The main reason this stat is so extreme is that the greens are Poa Annua, and since it’s close to the ocean, the greens are hard to judge and tend to get bumpy, especially late in the afternoon. Last year List won despite being terrible in this stat, ranking 59th as he was 43 of 51 in this 10-foot range. In 2021 Reed was 7th, making 47 of 52 attempts inside ten feet. The year before, Leishman was 28th making 44 of 51 attempts inside ten feet. In 2019, Justin Rose was T-39th in that stat, completing 46 of 53 putts. But in 2018, Jason Day shined in this stat, ranking 1st in the field making 49 of 51 tries for the week.
Our last category is scrambling mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed, and Torrey is adamant about getting it up and down. Last year it ranked 18th hardest, while 2021 was the 5th hardest. In 2020 it was the 4th hardest. But in previous years, it was the 15th hardest in 2019, in 2018, it was 19th, but in 2017 it was the 5th hardest. As for last year’s winner Luke List, he was T-6th as he got it up and down in 15 of 19 tries and he ranked T-6th. In 2021 Patrick Reed was 6th in this stat on the 28 greens he missed, he got it up and down 20 times.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you must hit the driver off most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Putting inside 10 feet: This gauges how many putts a player makes inside ten feet. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat, before 2018 it was historically very high in this stat as it was in the top-ten on tour between 2011 and 2017. But in 2018 it ranked 19th, in 2019 it was 15th, in 2020 it was 4th, in 2021 it ranked 5th hardest on tour. Last year it ranked 18th on the PGA Tour.

142 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.