BlogFarmers Insurance Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So after the first three weeks of January, Jon Rahm is 2 for 2 in wins and sets up for a big battle this week. All of that stems from how the Official World Golf Rankings changed their method of giving points. It’s a complicated process. Since it first came out in 1986, points were given to events best on the Working Ranking of the field. The tournament was given more points if all the top players showed up. The system worked well for 36 years. Last August, they changed, and to put it in layperson’s terms, they now create field ratings for each event based on each player’s gained world rating, which is determined by round-by-round stroke-play scores adjusted for the relative difficulty of each round. And that is in layperson’s terms.

The point is that it created a drastic result that favors PGA Tour events. Since the change, much criticism has been pointed to who is at the top of the ranking. The most prominent voice of that criticism comes from Jon Rahm, who was sixth in the rankings after the British Open. He finished T-5th at the FedEx St. Jude, T-8th at the BMW Championship, and T-16th at the Tour Championship, but was still sixth in the rankings. But Rahm’s game went into high gear as he was T-2nd at the BMW PGA Championship and then won the Spanish Open. He only went up to 5th in the Rankings with those stellar results. In Rahm’s next two starts, he was T-4th at the CJ Cup and won the DP World Tour Championship, which is very prestige on the European Tour, and the chatter started. Rahm was T-8th at the Hero World Challenge, won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and was still 5th in the ranking. The conversation got a bit higher after that. The number one player in the ranking is Rory McIlroy, who regained the top spot with his win at the CJ Cup. Since then, he has only played in the DP World Tour Championship, finishing 4th. I understand the criticism since Rahm has won five of his last seven starts and is the hottest golf player.

With all the top players not playing as much in the final four months, we can see all the change and lack of change in the rankings.

But this week, we will have an 8,000-mile mono-a-mono battle. For the first time in two months, Rory is playing in Dubai in an event he has won twice and been in the top ten in his last nine Dubai starts. Also playing this week in San Diego at the Farmers Insurance is Jon Rahm, who is no stranger to Torrey Pines. In five Farmers starts, he has a win and five top-ten finishes. But Rahm won the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in 2021, so we know he plays well on the course. So the exciting storyline will be who comes out of the week as the top dog. Rahm played great in the American Express. His usual tee-to-green game was a notch below his norm, but he says his putting was in great shape. They only keep shotlinks stats on the Pete Dye Stadium course but on Saturday, Rahm made over 112 feet of putts. So going into the Farmers, you have to think that Rahm will be in contention and can win three times in a row. The same with McIlroy. He is playing great and will be in contention and could win. So that will be the most important news you see this week, how Rahm should be the number one ranked player in the world. If he can win again at Torrey Pines, he will take over the number one spot unless Rory wins. Check back next week on this.

One essential item. BE AWARE, due to not wanting to play on Sunday and be up against the NFL, this year’s Farmers will start on WEDNESDAY and end on Saturday. So don’t miss the early start.

So who are the players we are watching for this week?

The list is easy. Of course, at the top of the list is Jon Rahm. He has done great at Torrey Pines, the location has a lot of great memories for him. He remembers the first time he came to Torrey, his girlfriend at the time, Kelley drove him as he tried to qualify to play at Torrey in 2016. Kelley knew nothing about golf and was Jon’s caddy. They missed out by a shot and drove back to Arizona after that. The following year Rahm not only got into the tournament but won it. A year after that, Rahm proposed to Kelley, and the couple loves to come back to the Del Mar area to hang out. So it was only fitting that Rahm would win his first major last year at Torrey Pines. So, of course, the whole golfing world will be watching Jon this week.

Another person that will be a favorite this week is Xander Schauffele. He grew up and went to school a few miles from Torrey and has played the course a lot. He was always considered a favorite, but between 2016 and 2020, he missed the cut four out of the five years and was T-25th in 2019. So many just thought that maybe this wasn’t a course for him. At the U.S. Open at Torrey in 2021, Schauffele dismissed the thought he couldn’t play well at Torrey by telling the story of how for some odd reason, he was always sick with the flu or something during Farmers Insurance week. In 2021 Xander did everything he could not to get sick before the Farmers, and sure enough, when he played four rounds with him feeling good, it was no surprise he was T-2nd. Last year wasn’t very good for Xander as he finished T-34th, and we have to wonder if maybe there is a story of something happening to him. The big question is whether this week will be good for him. Three weeks ago, Schauffele withdrew from the Sentry T of C with back pains during the 2nd round. For the 29-year-old, it was the first time he ever had to withdraw, and the concern was since he had the same back pain a few weeks early at the Hero, was there a problem? Schauffele returned home and underwent scans and an MRI to diagnose the back pain. The good news was no tear, and the diagnosis was muscular, which meant some rest. He took the week off and played in the American Express. He said in his Wednesday press conference that he wasn’t 100%, and he thought a portion of that was due to mental stress from the previous times the back hurt. So he was on everyone’s watch list, nobody was willing to risk him, and he made us look bad as he shot 65 in the opening round and then 62 in the final round to finish T-3rd.  So the big question is if Schauffele ok and if he will play well this week? Guess we will have to wait and see.

Taking about the walking wounded, we have to watch Will Zalatoris this week. We know that he took four months off resting a fragile back. He returned to the Sentry T of C and finished T-11th. Last week he was T-36th, finishing with rounds of 67 over the weekend. Zalatoris was T-7th at the Farmers in 2021 and lost to Luke List last year in a playoff. So I have to say, other than Rahm, Zalatoris is the 2nd favorite. Talking about our defending champion, Luke List has struggled with his game. In 27 starts since, he has only made 13 cuts with just two top-25 finishes, his best coming a few weeks ago, a T-11th at the Sentry T of C. So we can forget about him for this week.

The others to watch is rookie Taylor Montgomery. The American Express was Montgomery’s 13th event on the PGA Tour. He first started at the 2019 Barracuda Championship, missing the cut and finishing T-57th at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. He played at the U.S. Open again in 2022, got a sponsor exemption for the Farmers, and finished T-11th at Torrey Pines. Montgomery played in 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour. He earned his PGA Tour card despite going without a victory, as he recorded nine top-10s (the second-highest total on Tour) in just 17 starts en route to a No. 7 finish on the season-long Korn Ferry Tour Eligibility Points List.

He played at the Fortinet Championship and finished 3rd. In nine starts in 2023, Montgomery has finished in the top 15 eight times, and the only time he wasn’t in the top 15 was T-57th at the Houston Open. In DraftKings, Montgomery has turned into a fabulous choice. With his T-5th finish, he earned 141 points, and his nine 2023 starts averaged 97 points per event. His cost has gone up steadily. At the American Express, he was $8,900, but with the high amount of points he has earned, well worth it. Unfortunately, Montgomery was in contention on Sunday at the Stadium Course. Going into the 16th hole, he was only a shot back of Rahm and Thompson. On the par-5 16th, Montgomery was just off the green in two, unable to get it up and down, and made par. On the par-3 17th’s island green, Taylor hit a shank off the tee into the water and, with a double bogey, was out of the tournament even with a closing birdie on 18.

Montgomery is in the field at the Farmers, and hopefully, his Amex finish won’t stick in his head.  We think Taylor will be an excellent pick for the Farmers. Remember, this is the same person who, in his first major finished T-57th at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey, and he was T-11th at the Farmers last year as a sponsor exemption.

Also, have to watch Collin Morikawa and Tony Finau. For Morikawa, this is his first start since his final nine melt-down at the Sentry T of C, which gave the event to Jon Rahm. The big question will be if he can bounce back. He was T-21st in his only Farmers start in 2019 but finished T-4th at the U.S. Open held at Torrey in 2021, so I have to watch him.

The same with Tony Finau, who had played well at Torrey with a T-2nd in 2021. Unfortunately, after that, Torrey hasn’t been too kind to Finau. He missed the cut at the 2021 U.S. Open and missed the cut last year. Despite that, his game has been sharp in 2023, including a win in Houston. Despite finishing T-16th, it wasn’t bad as he shot four rounds in the 60s, so I have to watch him this week.

One last person to watch is Justin Rose. The Farmers was the site of his final PGA Tour win in 2019, and Rose still has some game. He was T-6th last year at Torrey and T-4th at the Canadian Open. He has the Jekyll and Hyde type of game, you never know when he will have a good finish. He was T-9th at Houston and last week T-26th at the American Express, so you don’t know.

Two players I don’t like. One is Justin Thomas, who seems lost mentally. He was T-25th at the Sentry T of C, but the course doesn’t suit him at Torrey. Last year he was T-20th. The second player I don’t like is Hideki Matsuyama, who in nine Farmers start had one top-ten, a T-3rd in 2019. In 2023 he struggled in his six starts, was T-21st at the Sentry T of C, and T-48th at Sony. Just have to wonder if the back is part of his problem.

Who else should we be looking at?  First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

Course information:

• Played at the two courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California
• South Course (Home Course) – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,765
• North Course – Par: 72 / Yardage 7,258

Last year the South course in easy conditions was 15th on the PGA Tour with a 72.35 average.  The year before in tougher conditions, the South Course was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 73.34 average.  The North Course was the 48th hardest course last year, playing to an average of 68.77.

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and opened in 1957.  In the 80s, both courses were revamped with all-new greens with the work done by the city.

The south course opened first on June 19th, 1957, with Paul Runyan, Ralph Duldahl, Olin Dutra, and a local pro, Don Gillett, the first to play it.  Five months later, the North Course opened.  Hard to believe that since the courses opened over 58 years ago, over 14 million rounds have been played on both courses.

The two courses were Leo Calland’s brainchild, then director of San Diego’s park and recreation department. He pushed hard to change an old World War II camp into a golf course.  When he got permission, Bell came in, covered over the blacktop, and could use the excess concrete to roll fairways on a flat site.  After they opened, the lure of both courses was the ocean’s views from every hole.  Both courses sit atop bluffs overlooking the Pacific. These views were seen a couple of years later nationally when Challenge Golf filmed one of their matches with Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Sam Snead, and Doug Sanders.

A decade later, the San Diego Open was looking around for a home.  Since the tournament was first played in 1952, it never really found a home.  It was played on several different courses, but in 1968 it would embark on a significant change.  It decided to copy several west coast tournaments by getting a headline celebrity to host the event getting Andy Williams, who at the time was one of the biggest stars on television with a weekly show.  They also needed financial support and asked for the city to use Torrey Pines free of charge.  It was a match made in heaven.  The course proved very popular with the pros and the TV audience that watched it.

Since then, Torrey Pines has been the tournament’s home, although rumblings were heard that it could be replaced with a TPC course every year. Those rumblings ended with the economic downturn in 2008.

After the 2001 Buick, the South course underwent extensive revamping.  With the chance of getting the 2008 U.S. Open, $3.3 million was spent with Rees Jones, adding a lot of length to the course.  With the changes, the course could stretch to 7,700 yards, although the PGA Tour played it below that figure.  Though Jones didn’t change the course’s routing, he did redo all the bunkers and changed four holes, moving greens on the third, fourth, fourteen, and fifteen holes.  With all the changes, it brought some bite back to a course that 50 years ago was considered very difficult for touring professionals.  Average scores were up almost two shots compared to past years, and the winning score in 2002 of 275 was along with two other years, the highest winning score in 20 years.  The revamp proved such a big success with the players, media, and fans that the USGA gave the 2008 U.S. Open to Torrey Pines, and that was such a big success that in 2021 the USGA would return the Open to Torrey.

To get ready for the 2021 U.S. Open, course architect Rees Jones returned after the 2019 event to get the course prepared by making numerous subtle changes.  $14 million was spent to renovate and strengthen the course by installing a new irrigation system.  They also resed every tee, redid every bunker, and redid the areas around all 18 greens without doing anything to the greens. The most striking alterations come on the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make driving harder in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.  So the changes will add more of a premium on accurate driving, but another thing the changes did was add another 67 yards to the course, making it play to 7,765, which is not only the longest course on tour but the first course to venture over the 7,700-yard mark.  As one pro Beau Hossler said to Tod Leonard of the San Diego Tribune:

“They’re seemingly taking away the easy holes and turning them into moderate ones.  So, basically, there are no easy holes out here when you play it all the way back.”  So it will be interesting to see how much harder the course will play, of course, if the weather is perfect like predicted, scores will be low, and we may never know until either next year’s Farmers or when the U.S. Open is played on the course.

The North Course was redone in 2016 and proved to be about a shot and a half easier than the South.  Still, in many people’s minds, the North is more scenic and more fun to play..

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the South Course at Torrey Pines:

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for stats from 2023.
The event is played on two courses, so the data are only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one-round data from the North Course.
The scoring average of the Torrey South Course field last year was 72.35, and it was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2021 was 73.34, and it was the 4th hardest course on tour. In 2020 the scoring average was 72.53, and it was the 7th hardest course on tour. In 2019 was 71.73, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour. That is the first time that the South Course played under par since 2001, when it played to an average of 71.82. Days after that event, bulldozers came in, and the course was completely renovated for the 2008 U.S. Open by Rees Jones. So why did the course play so easily in 2019? The weather couldn’t be better, warm all four days with wind under 10 mph each day. With that, Justin Rose shot 21 under par, the lowest winning score since Tiger Woods shot 22 under in 1999. Of course, the wind is always a factor, in 2018, with low temperatures the first three days and winds gusting up to 25 mph, the scoring average was 72.81, the 8th hardest course for the year. In 2017 it was windy each day, and the average was 72.77, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It was almost 2 shots easier than in 2016, when it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 74.50. That year, they had high winds so severe that they had to finish the round on Monday, which is why the change happened. 72.947 has been the South Course average since 2016, but the overall tournament average has been 72.187. That’s because one round is played on the North Course, which has been a layup in past years, but the course had some changes done to it. In 2021 the North Course played to a 70.13 average, making it the 44th hardest course on tour. In 2020 the North Course played to a 70.57 average, while in 2019, it played to a 69.84 average, which was down because of the excellent weather conditions. Yes, the course was changed in 2016, making it tougher, but it has historically been about two shots easier. But in 2022, the North Course was very easy, with a 68.77 average, the 48th easiest average on the PGA Tour. So why did last year play so easily? Weather, last year the temperatures went from 65 to a high of 70 on Saturday. With both courses on the Pacific, wind plays a key role, and all four days saw the wind blowing between 6 to 12 mph, very mild conditions.
Our course key is based on the South Course, which underwent another renovation before the 2020 event to prepare for the 2021 U.S. Open. There have been numerous subtle changes on the South Course, but the most striking alterations were made to the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make driving harder in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.
Still, with the course lying on a bluff over the Pacific Ocean, mother nature always plays its part with possible fog this time of year, rain, and wind. For this year, despite the area getting over 7 inches of rain in the last month, for this week, the temperatures will be mild in the low-60s each day, with no rain or fog, and winds will blow each day at around between 9 to 13 mph, very gentle. So look for low scores again.

Driving is essential in looking at Torrey South’s stats last year. Last year it ranked T-27th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and 9th in driving accuracy. In 2021 the course ranked 25th on the PGA Tour in driving distance but 7th in driving accuracy. This stat has always been important, it also ranked 1st in 2019 and ’18, and since 2014 it hasn’t ranked over 9th inaccuracy. So do you have to drive it straight to play well on the South Course? Not really, in looking at all the champions of the Farmers going back to 1997, only four were in the top ten in driving accuracy. Phil Mickelson was T-7th in 2000, Ben Crane was T-8th in 2010, Justin Rose was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Reed was T-9th in 2021. But in looking at the driving distance, it’s a different story. Of the 24 winners since 1999, 13 of them were in the top 11 as 2021 winner Patrick Reed was T-52nd, but 2019 winner Justin Rose was 11th, and 2018 winner Jason Day was 2nd. So driving is essential, the combination of hitting it far and straight. Last year Luke List was 12th in driving distance and T-44th in accuracy.
Another vital stat is proximity to the hole for those that hit the fairway. Last year the field hit an average of 37 feet, 1 inch to the hole, making it T-13th hardest on the Tour. In hitting greens, the field averaged 62.62, which ranked T-16th. In 2021 the field hit an average of 37 feet, 11 inches to the hole, making it the 20th hardest on tour. As for rough proximity, the course was 8th hardest last year, with the field hitting an average of 48′ 8 inches. So with hitting into the fairway and hitting it far, our second important stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. Last year’s winner Luke List ranked 4th in Proximity to the hole and T-11th in Greens in Regulation. 2021 winner Patrick Reed was 39th, while 2020 winner Marc Leishman was 5th, the same as 2019 winner Justin Rose. But the difference was Leishman was T-14th in greens hit while Rose was 2nd.
Our third category is putting inside 10 feet. In 2020, ’21, and last year it ranked 2nd hardest as it’s always in the top ten. As a matter of fact, the greens were the hardest to putt in 2017 and 2016. Several factors have made Torrey Pines the most challenging greens to make putts inside 10 feet over the years. The main reason this stat is so extreme is that the greens are Poa Annua, and since it’s close to the ocean, the greens are hard to judge and tend to get bumpy, especially late in the afternoon. Last year List won despite being terrible in this stat, ranking 59th as he was 43 of 51 in this 10-foot range. In 2021 Reed was 7th, making 47 of 52 attempts inside ten feet. The year before, Leishman was 28th making 44 of 51 attempts inside ten feet. In 2019, Justin Rose was T-39th in that stat, completing 46 of 53 putts. But in 2018, Jason Day shined in this stat, ranking 1st in the field making 49 of 51 tries for the week.
Our last category is scrambling mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed, and Torrey is adamant about getting it up and down. Last year it ranked 18th hardest, while 2021 was the 5th hardest. In 2020 it was the 4th hardest. But in previous years, it was the 15th hardest in 2019, in 2018, it was 19th, but in 2017 it was the 5th hardest. As for last year’s winner Luke List, he was T-6th as he got it up and down in 15 of 19 tries and he ranked T-6th. In 2021 Patrick Reed was 6th in this stat on the 28 greens he missed, he got it up and down 20 times.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you must hit the driver off most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Putting inside 10 feet: This gauges how many putts a player makes inside ten feet. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat, before 2018, it was historically very high in this stat as it was in the top ten on tour between 2011 and 2017. But in 2018, it ranked 19th, in 2019, it was 15th, in 2020, it was 4th, in 2021, it ranked 5th hardest on tour. Last year it ranked 18th on the PGA Tour.

142 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all Player stats for the Farmers

DraftKings tips

Historical ParBreakers

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 season and going through the 2023 American Express, a total of 61 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the very costly guys:

• Jon Rahm – $11,600
• Tony Finau – $10,500
• Xander Schauffele – $10,300
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Will Zalatoris – $9,700
• Justin Thomas – $9,400
• Sungjae Im – $9,300
• Taylor Montgomery – $9,200
• Max Homa – $9,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,000

The folks at DraftKings have given us a lot of good choices this week.  First, you have Jon Rahm at $11,300.  This man not only owns this course, with his U.S. Open victory and his play at the Farmers. On top of that, he is the hottest player in the world right now, and since he averages 88.6 DraftKings points per round, you can’t go wrong.  The odds are more against him not finishing in the top ten over winning the tournament, that is how well he is playing.  I have mixed emotions about Tony Finau at $10,500, he is playing ok but has a mixed record at Torrey Pines.  What eliminates him as a good choice is he only averages 77.8 DraftKings points which are low for a person with such a big price.  Xander Schauffele at $10,300 is a good buy, he has played well since the end of the 2022 PGA Tour season.  Yes, you have to be a bit concerned with his back flaring up, especially since it will be cool this week.  But after his T-3rd finish at the American Express last week, that helped makes my decision.  Collin Morikawa at $10,000, has some apprehension after melting down at the Sentry T of C.  But he is playing well, yes, he is expensive for a player that only averages 758 DraftKings Points per event.  Will Zalatoris at $9,700 is my choice, I think his back is Ok, and he does well at Torrey Pines.  Can’t go wrong with him.  But you can go wrong with Justin Thomas at $9,400.  His game is not sharp right now, and he hasn’t played well since the Tour Championship.  Sungjae Im at $9,300, is also someone to be careful for.  Yes, he was T-6th at the Farmers last year, but he hasn’t played well in January, and afraid he may struggle.  Taylor Montgomery at $9,200, is not struggling and has made a lot of DraftKings points in 2023, averaging 90 per event.  He seems to knock on the door every week he plays, and we have to think it’s just a matter of time before he wins.  Max Homa at $9,100 is a toss-up for me.  He seems to win every fourth month, and that puts him on schedule to win in the next few weeks, he has the game to win I don’t know if Torrey is a good course for him.  He hasn’t shown us much at the Farmers in six starts other than his T-9th in 2020.  There are better choices for this week.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,000 is a big no for me, just don’t think he is 100% right now.

I like this feature where we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the start of the 2022 season to see how they do in making cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.

• Thomas Detry has made 11 in 11 starts for a 100% – His Drafkings cost is $7,600
• Jon Rahm has made 22 in 23 starts for a 96% – His Drafkings cost is $11,600
• Justin Thomas has made 22 in 24 starts for a 92% – His Drafkings cost is $9,400
• Taylor Montgomery has made 10 in 11 starts for a 91% – His Drafkings cost is $9,200
• Max Homa has made 26 in 29 starts for a 90% – His Drafkings cost is $9,100
• Xander Schauffele has made 22 in 25 starts for a 88% – His Drafkings cost is $10,300
• Sungjae Im has made 28 in 33 starts for an 85% – His Drafkings cost is $9,300
• Collin Morikawa has made 20 in 24 starts for an 83% – His Drafkings cost is $10,000
• Sahith Theegala has made 33 in 40 starts for an 83% – His Drafkings cost is $8,700
• Ben Griffin has made 9 in 11 starts for an 82% – His Drafkings cost is $7,300
• Hideki Matsuyama has made 22 in 27 starts for an 81% – His Drafkings cost is $9,000
• Adam Hadwin has made 26 in 32 starts for an 81% – His Drafkings cost is $8,200
• Tony Finau has made 24 in 30 starts for an 80% – His Drafkings cost is $10,500
• Davis Thompson has made 8 in 10 starts for an 80% – His Drafkings cost is $7,800
• Maverick McNealy has made 28 in 35 starts for an 80% – His Drafkings cost is $8,600
• Si Woo Kim has made 28 in 35 starts for an 80% – His Drafkings cost is $8,900
• Will Zalatoris has made 20 in 26 starts for an 77% – His Drafkings cost is $9,700
• Taylor Pendrith has made 20 in 26 starts for a 77% – His Drafkings cost is $7,900
• Keegan Bradley has made 23 in 30 starts for a 77% – His Drafkings cost is $8,300
• Byeong Hun An has made 9 in 12 starts for a 75% – His Drafkings cost is $7,200
• Wyndham Clark has made 28 in 38 starts for a 74% – His Drafkings cost is $7,900
• Davis Riley has made 27 in 37 starts for a 73% – His Drafkings cost is $7,500
• Justin Rose has made 16 in 22 starts for a 73% – His Drafkings cost is $8,100
• J.J. Spaun has made 27 in 37 starts for a 73% – His Drafkings cost is $8,500
• Sebastian Munoz has made 22 in 30 starts for a 73% – His Drafkings cost is $7,500
• Cam Davis has made 22 in 31 starts for a 71% – His Drafkings cost is $8,400

(The ones in bold are what I think are a great bargain.)

In looking at just the record of players in the Farmers, these players make the most cuts in Farmers played:

• Bill Haas has made 15 of 17 Farmer’s cuts and has made his last five cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $6,100
• Gary Woodland has made 12 of 13 Farmer’s cuts and has made his last two cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $7,400
• Keegan Bradley has made 9 of 11 Farmer’s cuts and has made his last five cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $8,300
• John Huh has made 9 of 10 Farmers’ cuts and has made his last seven cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $6,600
• Harris English has made 7 of 9 Farmers cuts but missed the cut in his last start. – His Drafkings cost is $7,800
• Tony Finau has made 7 of 8 Farmers cuts but missed the cut in his last start. – His Drafkings cost is $10,500
• Jon Rahm has made 6 of 6 Farmer’s cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $10,600
• Cam Davis has made 5 of 5 Farmers’ cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $8,400

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Jason Day at $8,800, is a very savvy pick.  His record is pretty good at the Farmers, has six top-ten in 13 starts, including a T-3rd last year, and won the event in 2015 & 2018.  His game has been good in 2023, he was T-18th last week at the American Express.  Sahith Theegala at $8,700, is also a good pick, his numbers are good in 2023, he was T-25th last year in his only Farmers start.  Maverick McNealy at $8,600 is worth the cost, he also played well in 2023, and in four Farmer’s starts, his best finish was 15th in 2020.  Keegan Bradley at $8,300, I like. Forget that he missed his last cut at the Sony, his game is good for Torrey, and in 11 Farmers starts, he has made nine cuts and was 5th in 2018 and T-4th in 2017.  Justin Rose at $8,100, is also a good buy considering that he still can play, he may not win, but he could get you a top ten and earn a lot of DraftKings votes.  In 2023 has played Ok.  Hayden Buckley at $8,000, is good, considering that he was 2nd in his last start at the Sony.  The same with Davis Thompson at $7,800, he showed a lot of game at the American Express.  Thomas Detry at $7,600, should be an automatic pick.  He played for the first time at the Farmers, he has been good in 2023, making all six cuts, and was T-26th at the American Express.  The man averages 88.1 Draftkings points per start, so can’t pass him up

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Have to get Ben Griffin at $7,300, he is playing for the first time at the Farmers but has been solid, making his last eight cuts in a row.  Adam Svensson at $7,200, is a good pick for making the cut and earning a lot of DraftKings points.  He won at RSM just two months ago.  Byeong Hun An at $7,200, is another guy I like making the cut and earning points.  John Huh at $6,600, is another guy I am looking to make the cut, he has made nine of his ten Farmers cuts, including the last seven in a row.  Sorry it’s slim pickings in this price range

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Farmers Insurance Open

The key stat for the winner:

• The South course can be stretched to over 7,750 yards but don’t look for that length, although some tees will be back.  Driving will play an important role this week, fairways will be wet with very little run.  Look for those that do well in the total driving stat, which combines distance and accuracy.  In the past couple of years, the course has prided itself on heavy U.S. Open rough, making it tough to hit your shot into the green if you miss the fairway.  Last year the south course was 6th in rough proximity, while in 2014 and ’15, the course was the hardest course in proximity to the hole, and in 2016 it was 2nd.  Last year players in the rough averaged getting it 50 feet, 1 inch to the hole.  See the same happening this year, so it’s best to keep it in the fairway.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• The course was revamped and toughened 20 years ago, plus the renovation since the 2019 event, so you know it has a “U.S. Open feel” to it.  In past years this course had the reputation as the course that major winners are victorious on as between 1992 and 2008, all the champions also had major victories except for one, Peter Jacobsen, in 1995 (he did win a senior major?).  Nick Watney broke things up in 2009, Ben Crane in 2010, and Bubba Watson wasn’t a major winner when he won in 2011.  Brandt Snedeker kept the streak alive in 2012, but it was broken in 2013 when Tiger returned to the winner’s circle.  In 2015 Jason Day won, but it would be seven months later before he won his first major at the PGA Championship.  In 2019 Rose won, and in 2021 Patrick Reed won, both are major champions, so you have to look at those who have won as players with an added edge.
• One record that got broken in 2017 was Jon Rahm winning.  It was Rahm’s first start in the Farmers, and he had never won before on the PGA Tour, so he killed two birds with one stone, a first-time PGA Tour winner and a Farmers rookie winner.  Now Rahm joined two others to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.  The last rookie PGA Tour winner was in 1991 with Jay Don Blake, who won on the PGA Tour for the first time in his fifth Farmers start.  He joined Greg Twiggs, who in 1989 played his second Farmers, and won his first PGA Tour victory, so in the 67-year history of the Farmers, there are three first-time PGA Tour winners at the Farmers.  But that leaves one record left to Rahm, kind of.  Rahm is the only player to win the Farmers on his first start unless you count the fact that Ted Kroll did the same thing in 1952.  The only thing Kroll was playing in the first Farmers event, so in a way, you really can’t count that since it was the first one, so Rahm is the holder of one of the unique records on the PGA Tour.
• Greens that are classified as “bumpy” may play a role in determining the champion.  Now people who have played it in the last couple of days say they are perfect, but anything could happen.  Although the South greens were redone in 2001, Poa Annua has crept back into almost 99% of the greens.  With that, if it tends to get foggy in the morning, the greens will be inconsistent and drive players a bit crazy.  Again, patience will be the key here.  There is a reason the greens are the hardest to putt on the PGA Tour, and more putts from 3 to 6 feet are missed on it.
• Looking at the list of champions shows that scramblers have done very well in this event.  Look for the player who can get it up and down to win.  Last year it may of ranked 18th, in previous years, it ranked 5th last year and in 2017 and 2016, it ranked 2nd in scrambling.  In 2015 it ranked 10th, and in 2014 it ranked 8th toughest on tour and has been in the top-ten eight of the last twelve years.
• One round is played on Torrey North, a course that will be 507 yards shorter this year than the South.  In 2016 it played three and a half shots easier than the home South course.  Last year it was three and a half shots easier.  To win, the player needs to play great in his round on the North.  Since 1983, no champion has ever been over par on the North course, and except for six years, they have shot in the 60s, with 22 of the 37 shooting 67 or under.  Last year Luke List shot 68 in the second round on the North course.  In 2021 Patrick Reed started his week by shooting 64 on the North Course.  In 2020 Marc Leishman shot 68 on the North Course in his first round.  In 2019 Justin Rose shot 63 on the North Course to begin the tournament.  In 2018 Jason Day shot 64 on the North Course, while in 2017, Jon Rahm shot 69.  In 2016 Brandt Snedeker shot 70. In 2015 Jason Day shot 65 on the North Course, so he was seven under on that course and 2 under on the South Course.  So look for the champion to go low on the North Course
• Before Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Scott Stallings, Ben Crane, Bubba Watson, and Brandt Snedeker won, this was a great bit of Farmer’s trivia.  Before Crane’s 2009 victory, 15 of the previous winners had “California ties”  going a step further, 25 of 64 winners had either been born, raised, gone to school or live in California,  You may wonder why this stat is important?  Poa annua is a grass found mostly in California that gives those who play and know the grass a special advantage, so it’s important.
• The weather will be chamber of commerce for San Diego, as it’s going to be ok most of the time with temperatures in the low 60s and just a bit of fresh air in winds that will be around 10 mph each day.