BlogHero Dubai Desert Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This event has always been among the richest on the European Tour ever since it was first played in 1989.  Dubai is known for its wealth. Its skyline is something out of a futuristic science fiction movie. You can buy just about anything known to humans, except for alcohol, which is scarce because of religious beliefs.  Over the last 33 years, this event has taken a bite on whatever west coast event is played on the PGA Tour, those that run Dubai would pay top dollar for the best players in the world.  But things have changed in the last seven years, Abu Dhabi and now Saudi Arabia has more money to spend, so it’s doing a better job of getting better fields.  But even next week with Saudi International, it seems that Dubai isn’t at the same level in paying for star players.  The field this year is mixed at best, with only one top-20 player in the World Rankings, Rory McIlroy.  After that, it’s Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyrrell Hatton. As for Americans in the field, Patrick Reed is the top-name player.  Other marquee names in the field are Lee Westwood, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari, and last week’s winner Victor Perez.

Course Information 

• Played at the Emirates Golf Club
• Dubai, United Arab Emiraates – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,428
• Emirates Golf Club hosted the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and held the Omega Dubai Moonlight Classic for numerous years.  It was the first all-grass championship golf course in the Middle East when it opened in 1988. The club is part of a 54-hole facility with the Faldo Course and the Creek Course, which held this tournament in 1999 and 2000.
• The Emirates course was designed by Florida architect Karl Litten and lies amongst a plethora of sand dunes on a site donated initially by Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Al Maktoum. The instructions were that the desert flora was maintained in its natural state. Within a year of opening, the newly christened Majlis hosted the inaugural Dubai Desert Classic in February 1989.  The Majlis course’s sprinklers keep the Bermuda grass growing, alongside the indigenous desert flora, giving a dramatic contrast. The lush fairways and large greens provide a formidable golf test, guaranteeing a magnificent finish on the 18th hole. This long dogleg has seen as many inspirational finishes as watery disasters in its 20-year history.  Other course highlights include the par-three 7th and the grueling par-four 8th.
• There are five lakes dotted around the course, with water coming into play on seven holes.  There are only 41 bunkers on the course but something a bit unique, five greens with no bunkers guarding them.  There isn’t that much rough, but if you hit it off the fairway, you could find yourself in desert scrub, which is sometimes harder to hit out of than rough.  The course is always in great shape and, in a way, follows the same creed as Augusta National in which the staff works hard to maintain this course in a manner that many feel it’s always the best-manicured course on the European Tour.
• Like last week in Abu Dhabi, the key to playing the course has windless conditions.  If the Shamal winds hit the area by chance, it makes the course very tough, but this event has never suffered any weather problems.  In looking at the weather forecast, this week will have rain, which is very rare for the area.  The rain moves in on Wednesday and should be gone by Saturday.  Temperatures will be right around the low 70 mark, wind will be between 10 and 13 mph.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,400
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,600
• Shane Lowry – $10,300
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,900
• Adrian Meronk – $9,700
• Robert MacIntyre – $9,500
• Min Woo Lee – $9,400
• Victor Perez – $9,300
• Thomas Pieters – $9,200
• Jordan Smith – $9,100
• Lucas Herbert – $9,000

These are hard choices to make because most of the top-price players are marquee names and cost top dollars, and you have to go through the names to weed out who the top players are.  Have to say this: Rory McIlroy being $11,400 puts a lot of pressure on you if he is a good pick.  The odds of him winning is probably 20%, and you will see probably 30 to 40% of those picking him.  So if you pick him, great, you are keeping up with the 40% of others that picked him.  The worst thing that could happen is he misses the cut.  The odds are slim on that happening.  I would have to see the odds of McIlroy finishing in the top ten are 75%.  So even if he doesn’t win, he will probably earn a lot more DraftKings points than most of the others in the field.  The big disadvantage to picking McIlroy is the cost, if you take him, you can’t take anyone like Tommy Fleetwood or Min Woo Lee because it would be high.  Also, if you take McIlroy, you need to find three others in the below $7,500 price range, which is hard to do.  Now, if you don’t pick him and he doesn’t play well, great for you.  But again, for you to really win, you will need the amounts of points that Rory will bring in.  Even though Tyrrell Hatton at $10,600, is a great pick and will do well, he is a lot of money and will strap you into taking more under $8,000 priced players.  Can he win, yes.  Will he earn a lot of points, probably.  But his cost is too high.  Same with Shane Lowry at $10,300, just hasn’t played well of late and hasn’t been in the top 15 since winning four months again in the BMW PGA Championship.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,900 is ok but doesn’t have that great of a record in Dubai, but it is still worth taking.  Of all of them, Adrian Meronk at $9,700 is a splendid choice considering that in his rookie start last year in Dubai was T-4th, he was T-10th last week in Abu Dhabi and won the Australian Open.  Robert MacIntyre at $9,500 is a toss-up, he won the Italian Open months ago and hasn’t done much since.  He missed the cut last year in Dubai but was 3rd in 2021 and T-8th in 2020.  Min Woo Lee at $9,400 is a better choice, and if you are looking to hook up with McIlroy, Lee is perfect at his price.  Yes, he may have missed the cut in his one start at Dubai in 2021, but on the DP World Tour, he has finished in the top 12 in his last seven starts, including runner-up last week in Abu Dhabi.  Thomas Pieters at $9,200 is not for me, he sure has made seven cuts in eight Dubai starts, but none of them were top-10 finishes.  As for 2023, he missed the cut in his only start of the year at Abu Dhabi.  Jordan Smith at $9,100 is also a no.  Yes, he was T-9th at Dubai last year, but he hasn’t played much in 2023 and missed the cut last week in Abu Dhabi.  Now Lucas Herbert at $9,000, could be a good pick, he won in Dubai in 2020 and T-10th in his last start at the Australian Open last month.

So we have to find a couple of good picks in the $7,500 to $8,900 range. 

I do like Francesco Molinari at $8,900, his record is not great in Dubai, but he was T-5th in Abu Dhabi.  Senior Padraig Harrington at $8,500 is a good buy, he was T-9th at Dubai last year and T-6th in 2021.  Harrington was 4th in Abu Dhabi, so showing a lot of good form.  Antoine Rozner at $8,300 is good, he won in Mauritius last month and was T-9th in Dubai in 2021.  Adrian Otaegui at $8,000 is worth the cost, he will make the cut and has played Ok in 2023, and in Dubai makes a lot of cuts.  Sami Valimaki at $7,900 is another good buy at a low price that will make the cut and earn a lot of points.  The same with Lee Westwood at $7,700, he has played a lot in Dubai and made a lot of cuts.  Talking about a reliable guy that makes cuts and earns points, Jason Scrivener at $7,600 is a good choice.  The same with Bernd Wiesberger at $7,600 has been good in Dubai.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

You can never go wrong with Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $7,400, last week, I took him, and he finished T-10th and also plays well in Dubai.  Sebastian Soderberg at $7,300 is good also, was T-2nd last week in Abu Dhabi.  Love Alexander Bjork at $7,300 because he makes a lot of cuts and translates to lots of DraftKings points.  Also, five for five in made cuts in Dubai.  Shubhankar Sharma at $7,200, is also playing well, T-7th at Abu Dhabi and 3rd at the Nedbank.  Richie Ramsay at $7,100, is a person I have picked several times because he is always cheap and makes a lot of cuts, he is 8 for 12 in cuts made in Dubai.  Same with Pablo Larrazabal at $7,100, who can earn many points at a cheap price.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

• What is the key stat that helps players win in Dubai?  It seems that hitting lots of greens is very important.  Of the last 14 winners going back to 2010, all of them were in the top 19 (except for 2018 winner Haotong Li was T-46th).  Last year Viktor Hovland ranked T-6th hitting 50 of 72 greens.  The previous year Paul Casey ranked T-4th hitting 54 of 72 greens.  2020 winner Lucas Herbert hit 48 of 72 greens and was T-4th.  In  2019 Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd, hitting 58 of 72, in 2017, Sergio Garcia was first, hitting 59. Rafael Cabrera-Bello in 2012 also led that stat hitting 61, the best of anyone.  Stephen Gallacher was 12th in both his wins in 2013 and 2014.  In 2015 Rory McIlroy hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th, so the winner must hit lots of greens.  The following year Danny Willett was the worst of the pack, hitting 56 of 72 greens to rank T-19th.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The Dubai Desert Classic has been known as a tournament that produces low scores, as the winner has had an average score of 16 under par.  In 2019 Bryson DeChambeau went low at 24 under, in 2018, Haotong Li went low at 23 under. In 2015 Rory McIlroy was 22 under, while in 2016, Danny Willett was 19 under, the same score that 2017 champion Sergio Garcia had. But last year, Paul Casey was 17 under par, during the year before, Lucas Herbert won at 9 under. Again the winds played a factor, and the course was challenging so that anything could happen. Also, watch the winds, that has a lot to do with the scoring.
• You can’t call this course a long-hitters paradise.  Yes, Alvaro Quiros won in 2011, averaging the best of those in the field, and the same with Rory McIlroy in 2015.  In 2017 Garcia was T-2nd, but the other winners have been in the middle in hitting it long.  Also, hitting fairways is not very important, and only four winners in the last 12 years have been in the top 20 of this stat.  Last year Viktor Hovland was one of them, hitting 35 fairways to rank T-3rd.  In 2015 Rory hit only 25 fairways and ranked T-65th, while in 2016, champion Danny Willett ranked 10th in driving distance, and he hit 31 fairways, which ranked T-38th.  In 2017 Sergio Garcia had the best driving week of any champion, hitting 39 fairways, ranking T-2nd, and driving an average of 305 yards, which ranked 3rd.  In 2019 DeChambeau was T-18th in fairways hit and T-26th in driving distance, while in 2018, Li was T-14th in driving distance and T-43rd in fairways hit.  In 2021 Paul Casey ranked T-17th in driving accuracy and T-23rd in driving distance.  In 2020 Lucas Herbert was T-30th in driving accuracy, T-17th in driving distance, and T-4th, hitting 48 greens in regulation.
• Mastering the par 5s is the key, last year, Viktor Hovland played them in 10 under while the previous year, Paul Casey played them in 13 under, while in 2020, Lucas Herbert played them in 8 under.  In 2019 DeChambeau played them the best at 14 under, in 2018, Haotong Li played them the best at 13 under.  2015 winner Rory McIlroy may have only been 10 under, while in 2009, McIlory played them in 12 under.  In 2016 Danny Willett was 12 under on the par 5s, while in 2017, Sergio was 9 under.
• The only way a winner goes over par in any round is because of the wind. Last year was the biggest case as in windy conditions, Viktor Hovland shot 73 in the third round, the highest round by a winner since Alvaro Quiros shot 73 in a windy first round in 2011.  Henrik Stenson in 2007 shot all four rounds in the 60s, and it wasn’t until Sergio did it in 2017 and in 2018 Haotong Li was in the 60s all four rounds.   Only 5 champions (Alvaro Quiros 73, 1st rd in 2011, Tiger Woods 73, 3rd rd in 2008, Jose Caceres 73, 4th round in 2000 and Eamonn Darcy 75, 3rd round in 1990) have had a single round over par, and that was on a day of high winds.  In 2020, Lucas Herbert was very consistent with rounds of 69-71-71-68 to claim victory.  In 2021 Paul Casey was up and down, 67 in the first round, up to 70 in round two, back down to 64 in round three, and 70 in the final round.