BlogAT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Tour season is just over a third of the way over, 13 events played, and 34 left to play, we are seeing a different list of winners. First, there are only no first-time winners, two multiple winners (Jon Rahm and Max Homa), and seven of the 13 winners are in the top 25 of the World Rankings #1 Rory McIlroy, #3 Jon Rahm, #12 Tony Finau, #13 Max Homa, #14 Tom Kim, and #21 Keegan Bradley ). All of this shows how good the fields are on the PGA Tour, that just about anyone who tees it up can win, and that players are constantly in flux.

Another thing that we are seeing is that despite the middle east getting some marquee players, many more are teeing it up on the West Coast. An example of this is the last two weeks; the American Express and the Farmer’s fields were better than Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Now, this week the Saudi International is playing, but they only will have seven of the top 50 World Ranked players. Yes, the field of AT&T isn’t the best, but with the way of the schedule, it’s gotten very competitive.  A perfect example of that is Jason Day.  A lot of people were shocked not to see his name on the list of players at the AT&T, and he explained why he didn’t play after being in this event for the last ten years.  He seems to be required to play in the WM Phoenix and Genesis with the new rules. Since Day played at the American Express, he had to decide to play in either the Farmers or Pebble. Since he has won twice at the Farmers, he picked that one, thus the reason he isn’t playing at Pebble for the first time since 2012.  Now his decision wasn’t bad as he finished T-7th at Torrey.  If you look at his Pebble Beach record, he has played it 13 times and finished in the top-seven eight times, including a T-2nd in 2018. He has played at Pebble for the last ten years and has been in the top-five four of his last six starts. So it is a bit disappointing because he has only played in Phoenix four times and had just one top-ten. The same with Riviera for the Genesis. He has played in it five times and only made two cuts, the best being a T-62nd in 2012. The last time he played was in 2020, when he missed the cut.  Still, with 17 designated events and with two at Phoenix and L.A., you can see why players aren’t playing this week at Pebble.

What we learned from last week:

That Max Homa is for real, as he started the final round five back of the lead and shot 66 to win by two shots.  His sixth PGA Tour victory was, with four coming to California.  We also learned that Jon Rahm is human.  After winning four of his last six starts, Rahm opened up with a 73 and closed with a final-round 74.  In between, he shot 67-66, but he pretty much took himself out of contention with a bogey on his first hole and a double bogey at five.  Torrey Pines is one of Rahm’s favorite courses, so everyone was caught off guard.  The big question is, will Rahm bounce back in Phoenix next week, or will this finish affect his game.  My bet is he will be in contention both at Phoenix and L.A.

We also learned that Collin Morikawa would win soon as he finished 3rd at the Farmers, and Keegan Bradley and Sahith Theegala continued their good play and could soon be winners.  Also, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, who hasn’t won since 2018 & 2019, could find themselves back to winning.

Who else should we be looking at?  First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.  

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

One other player to watch this week is Jordan Spieth

He was 2nd last year and T-3rd in 2021.  He loves playing in the AT&T, won it in 2017 and in ten starts and six top-ten finishes.  The last time Spieth played at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he was a co-leader after the first round but shot 75 in the second round to make the cut.  The last time he played well was at the British Open when he finished T-8th at St. Andrews.  Conventional wisdom says that he may be in trouble this week, but he rarely plays poorly at Pebble.

Nice to see the pro-am, fans, and three courses back

Last year saw the return of the three-course rota, with celebrities playing and fans back.  Bill Murray is back in the celebrity field with former major leaguer Buster Posey, Packer QB Aaron Rodgers, Bills QB Josh Allen, and Will Arnett.

How about the weather for the week?

For years the weather for the AT&T has had its share of terrible conditions.  in 2020 it was one of those perfect years of sunshine and temperatures in the mid-60s.  2021 saw mostly cloudy skies with rain on Saturday and windy conditions every day, it never got above 60.  Last year had perfect conditions with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high 60s.

This year won’t be as nice as each day will be cloudy and temperatures in the high 50s.  Look for rain on Sunday, with winds in the 15 mph range.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

This and the American Express are the only events played on three different courses. Each player and the team will play one round at Pebble Beach (which is the host course), Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula C.C. After Saturday, the cut is made, and the final round is played at Pebble Beach.  The AT&T is two tournaments in one.  The field paired with an amateur partner played the first three rounds together.  After 54 holes, a cut is made, and approximately 25 low teams of the best amateurs/pros will make it to the final day at Pebble Beach.

This is the last of the big-time pro-celebrity events on the PGA Tour.  The American Express, which was the Bob Hope used to have a good field of celebrities, but now the only one left is this event.  The good news is that crowd favorite Bill Murray is in the field this year.  Other celebrities joining him are Will Arnett, Michael Pena, Chris O’Donnell, Darius Rucker, Ray Romano, and former 49er QB Steve Young.

For some, the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am is the greatest.  Played at one of the most speculator places in all the world, on three of the most celebrated courses in the world.  On top of that, the Monterey area offers a lot to do with great places to go, like the Monterey aquarium, some great restaurants, and bars plus you can’t beat a walk around the village of Carmel after the tournament is over.

For others, playing with amateurs in foursomes with rounds sometimes going six hours isn’t their cup of tea.  Still, it’s a staple on the PGA Tour.

Course information:

• Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,972 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 74.4 rating and a slope rating of 142 from the championship tees. Pebble Beach Golf Links is a resort open to the public.
• Last year Pebble played to a 70.756 scoring average as conditions were good with little wind.  It was the 35th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2022, Pebble played to a 72.52 scoring average, the 8th hardest course on tour.  The reason it played so hard compared to last year was the high winds around all four days.
• Jack Neville designed the course, and Douglas Grant in 1919,  Revised in 1928 by Henry Chandler Egan.  Between then and 1997, there were few minor changes done to the course.  But in 1998, the biggest change happened when the par-three 5th hole was rebuilt.  Jack Nicklaus did the redesign, and the hole was relocated about 100 yards away, along with a 50-foot cliff over the Pacific.  At the cost of $3 million, the new hole could be one of the most expensive holes that hold a PGA Tour event.  It’s funny to compare the cost.  $3 million for one hole in 1999, the total cost to build the course in 1919, and that included the money spent at the time was the first automatic sprinkling system in golf, was a mere $66,000.
• The course is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, its 120 miles south of San Francisco, Pebble Beach is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world.
• Despite the official name, the course is not a real links course because it is set on craggy cliffs above Carmel Bay.  Eight of the holes skirt the coastline, and it’s these holes that distinguish Pebble Beach.
• The land was owned by Samuel Morse, the nephew of the telegraph and Morse code inventor.  Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Peninsula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront, for $1.3 million in 1915.  Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties Company and envisioned a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay.  Instead of selling the oceanfront property for homesites, Morse built his golf course.  One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville, who won the California Amateur Championship. Although Neville had never produced a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the design.  Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him on the project, and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.
• In 1918 the course was opened for play, but in the inaugural competition, the course was deemed to be unplayable for the average golfer and was closed for revision.  Neville and Grant softened it up, and in 1919 it was again open for play.
• Over the course of the next ten years, the course was modified by Neville and Grant, and in 1928 H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter, and Roger Lapham strengthened the course for the 1929 U.S. Amateur.  Since then, the course has remained the same, except for the redesign of the fifth hole, which is undoubtedly an endorsement of the sound design of Neville and Grant.
• Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay.  They are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th.  The 18th hole is considered by many as the best finishing hole in golf.  It was originally a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards.
• Pebble Beach has held many tournaments the U.S. Open (1972, ’82, ’92, 2000, 2010, and 2019), the PGA Championship (1977),  five U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61, ’99 & 2018), the 1989 Nabisco Championship and is the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am which at one time was the Bing Crosby.
• The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest used on the PGA Tour.  The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine holes along the Pacific.
• In prepping Pebble for the 2019 U.S. Open in 2015, the 17th green was modified and rebuilt, and over the summer of 2016, the 14th green underwent a severe change.  The green doesn’t have the drastic elevation change in the front, back right.  The bunker is still deep and tough, making the green a bit flatter and having more pin places.  In 2017 the 13th hole saw the green rebuilt to create a hole location on the right side of the green, and a bunker was put into the left of the green.

Other courses used in the rota:

• Spyglass Hill Golf Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 7,041 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 148 from the championship tees.  The course is open to the public.
• Last year Spyglass played to a 72.179 average and was 16th hardest course on tour.
• The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1966.  The course was built thanks to Samuel Morse, who initially thought of creating it as part of the Lodge at Pebble Beach.  The course was to be called Pebble Beach Pines Golf Club, but Morse changed it to Spyglass Hill.  That was partly because of his friend Robert Louis Stevenson who got his inspiration for his book Treasure Island while visiting the area in which Spyglass was built.
• Spyglass is a mix of several different courses.  The first five holes go down through dunes and offer magnificent views of the Pacific.  The next couple of holes plays back into the pines, still offering ocean views.  For the last nine, you wouldn’t even know that the ocean is a mile away, the holes play through Monterey pines.  Spyglass is a different course than Pebble.  While the greens at Pebble are small, those at Spyglass are large and undulating.  Weather is a big part of Pebble, while it can be blowing up a storm there, Spyglass is just a couple miles away and could be calm.  When Spyglass first opened up it annually would drive the pros that played in the Crosby crazy and would be among the hardest courses on Tour.  It’s still one of the toughest courses on tour, but the course has softened with time, and now there is nothing but praise about the course.
• The big advantage of playing Spyglass Hill is after the first six holes, the last 12 holes are protected from the wind which helps on windy days.

• Monterey Peninsula C.C. Shore Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,934 yards     Par 34-37–71
• The course has a 73.3 rating and slope rating of 133 from the championship tees.  The course is private.
• Last year the Shore Course played to a 70.104 average (it’s a par 71 course) and was 31st hardest course on tour.
• In 2014 the Shore Course was the 22nd hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 71.252 average.  But in 2015, again in perfect weather, the course played to a 68.936 scoring average as only two other courses in 2015 played easier.  In 2016 the course got tough again and played to a 70.699 average, making it the 25th toughest on tour.  In 2017 the par 71 course had a 71.26 average earning it the 19th hardest course on tour.  In 2018 the course had a 70.058 average and was the 38th hardest course on the PGA Tour. in 2019, the Shore Course played to a 70.65 average and was the 22nd hardest course on tour, in 2020, it played to a 69.69 average and was the 30th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• Monterey Peninsula Country Club was founded on January 19, 1925. Samuel Finley Brown Morse, president, and general manager of the Del Monte Properties Company.  The club has two clubs; the Dunes Course was originally designed by Charles B. MacDonald and Seth Raynor in 1925. The Dunes Course was redesigned and rebuilt in 1998 by Rees Jones and was the site of the Bing Crosby Pro-am for 18 consecutive years beginning in 1947, and then shifted to the Shore Course in 1965 and 1966. In 1967, the tournament was moved to Spyglass Hill Golf Course. The Crosby later returned to MPCC in 1977.
• The Shore Course, this year’s AT&T site, was initially designed by Robert Baldock and Jack Neville. Construction began in 1960, and the course was opened for play in 1961. Reconstruction of the Shore Course started in February 2003, and the new course was opened in June 2004. Golf course architect Mike Strantz created a links-type golf course on the Club’s ocean-side property. For the AT&T, the course will play at a par 71 and 6,934.
• Two things will come into play this week at the Shore course; one is how it won’t be protected from the elements of wind off the ocean.  The course it replaced, Poppy Hills, was very well protected with big pines, but that won’t be the case here, so if you get unlucky and are paired on this course on a poor day, it could put you out of the tournament.  The second tough element will be the greens, which average 7,000, and Mike Strantz made them tough, and it will take much local knowledge to read them.  Most of the pros in the field are making sure to play the Shore Course, and they all are saying the same thing; the greens will be tough this week.

Because the event is played over three courses, we don’t have key stats for this week.

DraftKings tips

Historical ParBreakers

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 season and going through the 2023 Farmers Championship, a total of 62 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Jordan Spieth – $10,600
• Viktor Hovland – $10,300
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,100
• Tom Hoge – $10,000
• Seamus Power – $9,800
• Andrew Putnam – $9,700
• Maverick McNealy – $9,600
• Justin Rose – $9,500
• Matt Kuchar – $9,400
• Denny McCarthy – $9,200
• Keith Mitchell – $9,100
• Joel Dahmen – $9,000

Have to say that this week will be very difficult to maneuver. Last week was a breeze, most of the players at the top were well worth the value that DraftKings gave them, and the big problem was who to take at the top.  This week it’s the complete opposite, of those at the top of our list, I can see a problem with most of these players.  At the top is Jordan Spieth at $10,600, yes, he loves the courses and the event and has a great record.  But he hasn’t played well since the British Open and had problems in his last start at the Sony, where he led after the first round but missed the cut.  You don’t want to pick Spieth because he only averages 69.1 DraftKings points per event, which is low for a player who has to pay so much for him.  Now I can grasp Viktor Hovland at $10,300, he won the Hero World Challenge last month and has played well in the 2023 season.  But the biggest advantage of Hovland is that he averages 81.7 DraftKings points per event.  He has only played once at the AT&T and finished T-38th, but as an amateur in 2019 was T-12th in the U.S. Open and played at Pebble.  Can he surprise us, yes and we should concern him.  I also like Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,100, yes his point total is low at 74.3 per event, but he was T-6th last year at the AT&T.  In his last start, he was T-7th at the Sentry T of C.  Tom Hoge at $10,000 is way overpriced due to him being the defending champion.  Now he averages just 64.7 DraftKings points per event, which is low but mostly because he has played in 41 events, which is lower than average.  I can’t find myself paying so much money for Hoge.  Seamus Power at $9,800 is a thought, yes his 71.1 points per event is low, but he was T-9th at the AT&T last year, and he has played well since winning in Bermuda in October.  So yes, I can back Power.  Andrew Putnam at $9,700 is a mystery for me.  Sure he was T-4th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and yes, he was T-6th last year at the AT&T.  But other than that, you are buying a guy that does make a lot of cuts (last 14 in a row), but doesn’t produce a lot of birdies and averages 62.3 points per event.  Yes, I would back him if he was $7,700, but not $9,700.  Maverick McNealy at $9,600 is a yes for me.  He grew up right off the 15 holes of Pebble and knew the course really well.  He was T-5th in 2020 and 2nd in 2021.  Last year he stumbled and finished T-33rd.  He does make a fair amount of birdies and has been consistent on Tour in 2023 so I like him, despite his cost.  Justin Rose at $9,500 is a no for me, he has limited experience in the AT&T, only playing for three years.  He did finish T-3rd at Pebble in the 2019 U.S. Open.  Matt Kuchar at $9,400 is a no for me, mostly because his record is not good at the AT&T, but other than finishing T-7th at the Sony Open a few weeks ago, he has struggled.  Denny McCarthy at $9,200 is too much for what you are getting from him.  Yes, he will probably make the cut and get you 50 or 60 points, but you can do better with other lower-cost players.  Same with Keith Mitchell at $9,100, too much money to produce 50 or 60 points.  I can see Joel Dahmen at $9,000.  He was T-6th at the AT&T last year, he has made five cuts in five tries in this event, and in his last three starts was T-3rd at Mayakoba, T-9th at Houston, and T-5th at the RSM Classic.  Now the reason for the big break, and yes, he withdrew from the American Express, is to be home with his wife, who had a boy on January 19th in Scottsdale.  So we can go two ways on this, yes, Dahmen could be rusty at Pebble or be on a very good high after the birth of the couple’s first child.  Think he will do well, one other item he plays well on courses by oceans.

I like this feature where we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the start of the 2022 season to see how they do in making cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.

• Thomas Detry has made 12 in 12 starts for a 1.00% – His DraftKings cost is $8,800
• Viktor Hovland has made 23 in 26 starts for a 88% – His DraftKings cost is $10,300
• Matt Fitzpatrick has made 20 in 23 starts for a 87% – His DraftKings cost is $10,100
• Ben Griffin has made 10 in 12 starts for a 83% – His DraftKings cost is $8,600
• Maverick McNealy has made 29 in 35 starts for a 83% – His DraftKings cost is $9,600
• Will Gordon has made 8 in 10 starts for a 80% – His DraftKings cost is $7,600
• Robby Shelton has made 8 in 10 starts for a 80% – His DraftKings cost is $7,800
• Denny McCarthy has made 30 in 38 starts for a 79% – His DraftKings cost is $9,200
• Taylor Pendrith has made 21 in 27 starts for a 78% – His DraftKings cost is $8,900
• Byeong Hun An has made 10 in 13 starts for a 77% – His DraftKings cost is $7,400
• Jordan Spieth has made 20 in 26 starts for a 77% – His DraftKings cost is $10,600
• Matt Kuchar has made 19 in 25 starts for a 76% – His DraftKings cost is $9,400
• Keith Mitchell has made 25 in 33 starts for a 76% – His DraftKings cost is $9,100
• Joel Dahmen has made 25 in 33 starts for a 76% – His DraftKings cost is $9,000
• Justin Rose has made 17 in 23 starts for a 74% – His DraftKings cost is $9,500
• Troy Merritt has made 25 in 34 starts for a 74% – His DraftKings cost is $7,200
• Justin Suh has made 8 in 11 starts for a 73% – His DraftKings cost is $7,300
• Davis Riley has made 27 in 38 starts for a 71% – His DraftKings cost is $7,800
• Russell Knox has made 27 in 38 starts for a 71% – His DraftKings cost is $7,500
• Lanto Griffin has made 17 in 24 starts for a 71% – His DraftKings cost is $7,600
• Ben Taylor has made 7 in 10 starts for a 70% – His DraftKings cost is $7,200
• Brendon Todd has made 23 in 33 starts for a 70% – His DraftKings cost is $7,900
• Andrew Putnam has made 28 in 40 starts for a 70% – His DraftKings cost is $9,700
• Zecheng Dou has made 7 in 10 starts for a 70% – His DraftKings cost is $6,900
• Lucas Glover has made 23 in 34 starts for a 68% – His DraftKings cost is $6,800
• Seamus Power has made 22 in 33 starts for a 67% – His DraftKings cost is $9,800
• S.H. Kim has made 8 in 12 starts for a 67% – His DraftKings cost is $7,600
• Dean Burmester has made 8 in 12 starts for a 67% – His DraftKings cost is $8,400
• Nick Hardy has made 19 in 29 starts for a 66% – His DraftKings cost is $7,700
• Greyson Sigg has made 25 in 38 starts for a 66% – His DraftKings cost is $7,300
• Matthias Schwab has made 21 in 32 starts for a 66% – His DraftKings cost is $6,900

(The ones in bold are what I think are a great bargain.)

In looking at just the record of players in the AT&T Pebble, these players make the most cuts in AT&T’s played:

• Jordan Spieth has made 10 of 10 Pebble cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $10,600
• Nick Taylor has made 6 of 8 Pebble cuts and has made his last four cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $8,000
• Tom Hoge has made 5 of 8 Pebble cuts and has made his last three cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $10,000
• S.Y. Noh has made 5 of 6 Pebble cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $6,800
• Joel Dahmen has made 5 of 5 Pebble cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $9,000
• Trey Mullinax has made 4 of 4 Pebble cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $8,100
• Maverick McNealy has made 3 of 4 Pebble cuts and his last three in a row. – His Drafkings cost is $9,600
• Matthew NeSmith has made 3 of 3 Pebble cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $7,300
• Justin Rose has made 3 of 3 Pebble cuts. – His Drafkings cost is $9,500

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Thomas Detry at $8,800, is a player to think about.  He has not missed a cut since the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and has played well around the world.  He was T-5th at the BMW PGA and 2nd at Bermuda (a course on the ocean), and he will give you a solid performance, including making the cut.  In 12 events averages 85.1 DraftKings points, and despite not playing in the AT&T he is a player to pick this week.  Ben Griffin at $8,600, is another player that I have picked several times this year and been happy with him.  Hasn’t played before in the AT&T but has made cuts and just in 10 2023 events, has averaged 76 points per event.  David Lipsky at $8,200 is worth looking at.  He was T-24th last year in his only AT&T start and was T-4th at the Sony Open in Hawaii.  Sure missed the cut at the American Express but has played solidly in the last year.  Trey Mullinax at $8,100 is a possibility.  For that, he has made four of four cuts at the AT&T and could get you 70 DraftKings points for a low cost.  Nick Taylor at $8,000 is another of those to watch.  He won the AT&T in 2020 and was T-14th last year.  Yes, he has missed a fair amount of cuts in the last year, but at Pebble, he seems to go at a higher gear than others.  Russell Knox at $7,500, is a player who won’t win or finish in the top 10 but makes a lot of cuts (71%) and gets decent points for a low price.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

So who are our bargains for the week?  I will say there aren’t that many, which means you better be careful in spending for the star players.  Also it’s best to find someone that is cheap and excels at Pebble.  Someone like Greyson Sigg at $7,300, he was T-33rd last year at Pebble.  He also did well until he missed the cut at the Amex.  Also, Matthew NeSmith at $7,300, he is 3 for 3 in making cuts at the AT&T and was T-11th in 2020.  He has missed his last three cuts but didn’t play that badly, so I think things will be good this week.   Kevin Streelman at $7,100, is another of those with a good record at the AT&T.  He has played it 15 times, making 10 cuts, and even though he missed the cut last year was 13th in 2021, 2nd in 2020, T-7th in 2019, and 6th in 2018.  He misses many cuts but doesn’t think that will happen this year.  Danny Willett is $7,100 and worth it when you consider he is playing in the AT&T for the first time.  But he was T-12th at Pebble in the 2019 U.S. Open.  One item of concern, he had a should injury at the RSM Classic, took some time off, and returned to the American Express missing the cut.  Still, he may be ready to go 72 holes.  S.Y. Noh at $6,800, mixed results this year, but at the AT&T he has been in the event six times, making five cuts, including a T-8th in 2017.  Marcel Siem at $6,500 is a good buy, he played once at the AT&T and was T-18th in 2015.  Played on the European Tour in November and December, making five of five cuts, including a T-5th at the South African Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

The key stat for the winner:

• The AT&T Pebble Beach brings on some special problems; it takes a lot of patience to endure this week with amateur partners.  Another problem is the luck of the draw; someone could be playing at Spyglass that is tree lined on the last 12 holes, and may not get the brute of a heavy wind that some players encounter at Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula, which are tree-less and could get clobbered by the wind.  For some that play in the late afternoon, the conditions of the greens get dicey, especially since Poa Annua greens get bumpy and hard to predict.  So it takes a particular breed of player to endure this.
• Mixed news it will be cloudy during the event, with rain possible on Sunday.  So if you are on the ocean holes at Pebble, you will still feel the winds, and on the shore course of Monterey Peninsula, the winds always blow in off the ocean.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: Except for Brett Ogle in 1993, Dustin Johnson in 2009, and Nick Taylor in 2020, those that have won at Pebble were veteran players.  The point here is don’t look for any inexperienced players winning here, in its history going back to 1950, only one pro has won on his first visit to Pebble, and that was Ogle.  In 2019 48 year-old Phil Mickelson won for the fifth time.  But on the other end of the spectrum, Daniel Berger won in 2021 at the age of 27, the previous year, Nick Taylor won for the first time at 31 and has been around since 2008.  Last year Tom Hoge shocked the golfing world by winning the AT&T at the age of 23 after spending seven years in struggle on the PGA Tour.
• Now, we could expect a rookie or a person with minimal experience to win. Look at D.A. Points in 2011; he missed three out of four cuts before winning.  Some could call this a flunk; I feel that having comedian Bill Murray as his partner helped him, and without Murray, Points probably would have never won.  In 2016 Vaughn Taylor saved his career with a victory that did surprise many.  In 2018 Ted Potter, Jr. won in his ninth start.  It wasn’t that great of a year, he missed the cut in five events, and his best finish was T-13th before winning at Pebble.
• Also, look at Dustin Johnson, in 2009 Johnson was a surprise winner because he won due to the weather reducing the event to 54 holes, it’s always easy to win a tournament that you lead after 54 holes.   This type of player will win this week, the guy you least expect to win.
• The best-kept secret of this event between 1981 and 2005 is that none of the first-round leaders went on to win.  But, Phil Mickelson started a trend in 2005 that 8 of the last 16 winners, Mickelson twice, Johnson twice, and Points in 2011 were in the lead after the first day.  In 2015 Brandt Snedeker led after the first and second rounds, then was T-2nd in the third round.  In 2016 it was back to normal as Taylor was way back after the first and second rounds and six back of the 54-hole leader, But in 2017 Jordan Spieth had the lead after every round, the first player to have the outright lead after every round since Mickelson did it in 2015.  In 2020 Nick Taylor shot a first-round 63 to take the lead and never looked back, leading after every round.  In 2021 Daniel Berger opened with a 67 and was T-11th before he went crazy, shooting 66-72-65 to win.  Last year Tom Hoge shot 63 to lead after the first round and never looked back to win by two shots.
• One streak that is on the line and looking to stay intact is that in the previous 63 years of the American Express, nobody has ever won both the AT&T and the American Express in the same year.  Jon Rahm isn’t playing so it is now 0 for 64 years.
• Putting is always a key at the AT&T, especially since the tricky poa annua greens tend to get very bumpy in the afternoon.  Those that can deal with it will be ahead of the game mentally.
• Look for someone who either hits lots of greens or putts very well to win.  He also has to play very well over the weekend, that seems to be the key to the rest of the winners.  Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Because of that and the greens at Pebble don’t have many undulations, putting becomes vital in winning.  In making putts between 4 and 8 feet it has ranked one of the hardest courses on tour 7 of the last 14 years, Last year it ranked 4th while in 2021 it ranked 1st while in 2020 it ranked 3rd. It was 1st in 2019, 10th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, and 3rd 2016.  In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 1st last year and in 2019, 6th in 2018, 4th in both 2017 and in 2016, 15th in 2015, but first in 2014.   In putts outside of 25 feet it was 36th last year, 38th in 2021, T-20th in 2020 and in 2019, 36th in 2018,  31st in 2017, and 9th in 2016.
• Lastly and very importantly, To win, you must make sure that you play well at Spyglass Hill.  In a way, that is the hardest of the courses, and a good round there gives you a big advantage.  A perfect example was in 2005 with Phil Mickelson, he opened up with a 62 at Spyglass, shattering its scoring record, and could build upon that great round.  Spyglass is not the only secret, but playing well on Monterey Peninsula is essential.  All three of these courses usually play to a total field average of par, since 2005 Spyglass has been over par 12 of the last 17 years, and last year, Spyglass played to a 72.788 average.

What we did in the chart below was take the field average for that course and subtract the winners score to figure out how many shots are picked up on the field and come up with a total shot gained on the field for these two rounds.  The findings are remarkable across the board for the 12 winners.