BlogWM Phoenix Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Back to Phoenix

The “Greatest Show on Grass” is back at TPC Scottsdale, bigger and better than ever. Now that it is a “designated event,” it not only has its best field ever with 37 top 50 players, the purse is now $20 million, with first place getting an incredible $3.6 million.  Last-place money for those playing the weekend is expected to be around $43,000, about $3,000 more than Jerry Pate won in his 1977 Phoenix Open victory.  Now the last day on Sunday is also Super Bowl Sunday, as the big game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, about 30 miles away.  So for players who make the cut and play early, they can make it to the big game.

Now the big thing about the TPC Scottsdale is the number of fans that attend, as about 200,000 fans will attend each day on Friday and Saturday.  Yes, they may not get 200,000 fans on Sunday, in 2015 the last time the Super Bowl was played in the Phoenix area during the final round, over 83,000 fans still flocked in despite the big game being played just miles down the road.  Yes, they pack them. The last time the event released attendance figures in 2018, 719,179 went through the turnstiles setting the record for the biggest attendance in tournament history. All told, four attendance records were broken in 2018 — the weekly attendance mark, plus record crowds on Wednesday (84,034), Friday (191,400), and Saturday (216,818). Unfortunately, poor weather created poor numbers, and the Phoenix Thunderbirds, the organization that runs the tournament, decided not to report the number of people attending. Still, we know this, it’s a boatload. Each year things get bigger and bigger, they have expanded several popular spots with new bleachers added behind the 10th green, and on the hospitality side, the 17 and 18th holes have close to 50 new suites. So there are a lot of ways to pack in even more people.

Its reputation as the biggest party of the year for the PGA Tour and even with the Super Bowl in the same town, will get a lot of folks. It seems that they pack them in, either finding their way to the big pavilion, which has become the mainstay of this event, or going to the 16th hole, golf’s version of the Roman Coliseum. The 16th hole could be the wackiest place on the PGA Tour. A combination of genuine golf fans wanting to see some great golf and many others that wear out their arms hoisting their favorite adult beverage. The hole is surrounded by bleachers and hospitality tents, giving it that gladiator feel to it.

Is this the week for Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy?

Since Jon Rahm won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the big question in golf is when he will be on top of the Official World Golf Rankings.  McIlroy had a great 2022 winning the Tour Championship and the FedExCup.  In October, when Rory won the CJ Cup, he took over the number-one spot from Scottie Scheffler.  At the time, nobody had a problem with it until Jon Rahm finished T-2nd at the BMW PGA Championship, then won the Spanish Open and DP World Tour Championship.  So many were surprised when Rahm wasn’t able to claim the number one spot when he won in Maui and then the American Express.  At the same time, it’s not like McIlroy didn’t play well.  After winning the Tour Championship, he finished T-2nd at the BMW PGA Championship and 4th at the Italian Open and Alfred Dunhill Links in Pebble Beach.  He added the win at the C.J. Cup with a 4th place finish at the DP World and returned to the winners’ circle at the Dubai Desert Classic.  So for the first time since November at the DP World, both Rahm and McIlroy will be playing in the same event this week and next.  Will we get some closure on this, no.  No matter what happens this week, the controversy will be around next week in Los Angeles and will continue to the Masters, which is just 58 days away.

So no Justin Rose this week?

Rose had a very satisfying victory in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am, but many are wondering why he isn’t playing this week.  Yes, it’s a “designated event,” which you would have thought he had to play in, but that is not the case.  Those that have to play in “designated events” are the top 20 players (23 players as eight were tied for 16) that won money on the Player Impact Program.  Since Rose wasn’t one of the 23 players, he didn’t have to play.  Historically he doesn’t play in Phoenix, the last time he played was in 2010 when he finished T-62nd.  But Rose will play in L.A. next week for the Genesis Invitational.

Do we have to worry about the health of Xander Schauffele or Maverick McNealy?

For many wondering what is up on Maverick McNealy, we know very little about the shoulder injury that forced him to withdraw from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am after nine holes on Sunday.  Seems that McNealy made a double bogey seven on the 18th hole at Pebble (his ninth hole of the day) and withdrew, citing a left shoulder injury.  As of Tuesday afternoon, McNealy is still in Phoenix, but it’s a bit of déjà vu.  Last year Maverick finished T-33rd at the AT&T but withdrew from Phoenix, citing a shoulder injury.  So it seems February is the month for shoulder injuries for McNealy.  Even if he plays, I would be hesitant to pick him, especially with such a great field.  He also has never played in Phoenix.

At the same time, Xander Schauffele is back and in the field in Phoenix.  If you look at Schauffele’s record in Phoenix, he has an awesome record, and we have to think that a lot of bets will be placed on him.  Since withdrawing from the Sentry with back problems, Schauffele returned to American Express and finished T-3rd.  The next week he played well and was in contention, but shot a final round 72 to finish T-13th.  At both events not a sign of back problems.  Last week Schauffele participated in the Hyland X Vision Challenge, in which you played a par-3 blindfolded and seemed to be ok, so we have to think he is healthy and ready to go on Thursday.  Am I going to back Schauffele, yes but going to be very careful to make sure he doesn’t withdraw either late Wednesday or Thursday morning.

Jordan Spieth

Boy, as I wrote in my Prelude to the Phoenix Open, I will not place any money or make a bet on Spieth this week.  Spieth’s record is good and bad at Phoenix, he was T-4th in 2021 but also missed the cut in 1018 & ’20.  Last year Spieth was T-60th, and with his sketchy play over the last five weeks, I would say pass on Spieth and see if he can play his way out of this slump.

Who else is hot coming into Phoenix?

Have to watch Collin Morikawa, he only has played once in Phoenix and was T-25th in 2020.  In both of his starts in January, he was 2nd at the Sentry and 3rd at the Farmers, so have to think he will continue his good play this week.

Of course, we have to watch Max Homa, who had an impressive win in San Diego after finishing T-3rd at the Sentry T of C.  Homa has become a major player over the last six months and a player we have to watch this week and when he defends his Genesis title next week.

Making his return on tour after two weeks off is Tom Kim.  Yes, he did miss the cut at the Sony Hawaii, but in between was T-5th at the Sentry and T-6th at the American Express.  He is playing this week for the first time in Phoenix, and you have to think he will find a way into contention.

Now we can’t forget about Patrick Cantlay. He lost a playoff last year in his first go-around at Phoenix. He comes into the week with a very consistent record. Since the FedExCup playoffs, he was runner-up at the Shriners back in October, T-16th at the Sentry T of C, and T-26th at the American Express.  Cantlay is too good of a player not to bounce back, and has thought it would be a good week for him.

Another player to watch is Sahith Theegala, who was T-3rd last year and, in his last start, was T-4th in the Farmers.

What about defending champion Scottie Scheffler.  Last year was the start to an incredible year, as the Phoenix victory was his first of four victories in a two-month span.  Last year Scheffler finished T-25th at the American Express and T-20th at the Farmers leading up to the start of his hot streak.  This year he was T-7th at the Sentry T of C, and T-11th at the American Express, so have to think this could be a great week for Scottie.

I am fading Taylor Montgomery, who could be the most consistent player in 2023.  He was T-31st at the Farmers, and with 75-75 over the weekend have to wonder if the good run is over.  Yes, he has not been in contention in the final round other than his last two starts at Sony (T-12th) and American Express (5th).  Those playing him in DraftKings have been very well rewarded, but at Torrey, he only won 64 points, and maybe with the tour moving to Florida, Montgomery may be looking for his game again.

Who else should we be looking at? First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

Sub-60 watch

Even though the average player who knows the TPC Scottsdale is a tight layout, for those on the PGA Tour with great weather and no wind, the course could be nothing but a birdie and eagle feast. With great weather predicted for all four days and hardly a breath of wind, the chances are high that a 59 or even a 58 can be shot. For 72 holes, the PGA Tour low has come close to being broken, with Mark Calcavecchia shooting 256 in 2001 and Phil Mickelson shooting the same in 2013. In both cases, Calcavecchia and Mickelson shot 60 (There have been four 60s shot), with Mickelson coming the nearest as a birdie putt lipped out for 59 on his final hole. So I will say this, don’t be surprised to see the sub-60 barrier broken again. As a matter of fact, I can think of about a dozen other courses during the year in which this will pop up. In a way, people love to see it happen, but if it becomes the norm, the PGA Tour may have to do something or ask the courses to do something to prevent this from being more the norm. in 2021 we saw some folks coming close to the mark, Jordan Spieth had a 61 in the 3rd round, and they also had four 63s shot during the week. Last year Scottie Scheffler shot the low round, a 62 in the third round, while four rounds of 64 were shot by Sahith Theegala, Garrick Higgo, Sam Ryder, and Talor Gooch.

So could a 59 be shot? Anything is possible.

WM Phoenix Open history: 

It began in 1932 as the Arizona Open and has been played at the TPC of Scottsdale since 1987.  After the first two years, the event took the name Phoenix Open in 1935. The only older tournaments on the PGA Tour are; the British Open (1860), U.S. Open (1895), Western Open (1899), Canadian Open (1904), PGA Championship (1916), Texas Open (1922), and the Nissan Open (1926).

Due to a lack of local support, the tournament was discontinued after 1935. The competition was revived thanks to the energy and vision of one man, Bob Goldwater, Sr., who was an avid golfer.  So in 1939, Goldwater’s new fledgling golf tournament was the official rebirth of the Phoenix Open. Goldwater was left with most of the work, he printed the tickets, sold sponsorships, and obtained the use of Phoenix Country Club. He even invited a few of his friends to tee it up at the tournament. Those friends just happened to be Bing Crosby, Bob Hope, and a golfer named Ben Hogan. “I loved those early years,” said Goldwater. “I look back on those days with a sense of pride mixed with wonderment.” And, after a few more persuasive talks and the success of the 1939 Phoenix Open, The Thunderbirds came around and lent their full support. During that 1939 tournament, a 27-year-old up-and-comer named Byron Nelson won the $700 first prize. Hogan finished second, 12 strokes back, and collected $450. Since then, The Thunderbirds had been a part of the event every year except 1943, when wartime travel restrictions forced a one-year hiatus. The list of professional golfers who have won in Phoenix reads like the golf Hall of Fame: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Gene Littler, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Miller Barber, Johnny Miller, Ben Crenshaw, and more recently Lee Janzen, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Tom Lehman, Mark Calcavecchia, and Kenny Perry to name a few. Over the tournament’s 81-year history, the Open has been known by many names, including the Western Open, the Arizona Open, the Ben Hogan Invitational, the Phoenix Open, the FBR Open, and now the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The tournament has been played at Phoenix Country Club, Arizona Country Club, and the TPC Scottsdale, which has been the home course of the competition since 1987.  2018 will mark the 32nd consecutive year the tournament has been played at the Stadium Course at the TPC Scottsdale, and it has had a renovation to spruce it up and make it more challenging for the players. Thanks to the most fan-friendly tournament venue on Tour, it attracts the world’s largest galleries of any golf tournament. In fact, compared to the days when the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club, and the top attendance mark was 186,000 (1986), the event has grown by leaps and bounds. At the 2008 FBR Open, a PGA Tour record 538,356 fans attended the tournament, including 170,802 during Saturday’s third round alone. 2008′s Saturday attendance was a single-day PGA Tour record until 2013, when 179,022 fans came out for the third round. The 2016 event set a new attendance record when 618,365 fans came out. But in 2018, 719,179 went through the turnstiles setting the record for the biggest attendance in tournament history.  All told, four attendance records were broken in 2018 — the weekly attendance mark, plus record crowds on Wednesday (84,034), Friday (191,400), and Saturday (216,818).  In 2019 poor weather made it impossible for these records to be broken, and the Thunderbirds decided to stop reporting attendance figures, and we know that no attendance records have been broken since.

Course information:

• Played at TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Az.
• Par:  71 / Yardage: 7,261
• Last year, the course was the 28th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 70.29 average.
• The TPC of Scottsdale was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, with Howard Twitty and Jim Colbert serving as player consultants.  The course opened in 1986 and had some exciting features like a desert between the holes and fairways with many plants from the surrounding area. The layout also features mounding for spectators. The course can comfortably accommodate over 100,000 spectators, in 2018, 216,818 showed up for Saturday’s third round.  The green size is 6,770 square feet, which is slightly over the PGA Tour average. The course has 72 bunkers and six water hazards.
• Surrounded by spectacular mountain views, the course was designed specifically to host the Phoenix Open, and the aforementioned mounding promises an excellent look to all of the 500,000+ in the galleries. Hole No. 16 will always be remembered as the site of Tiger Woods’ hole-in-one in 1998. Hole No. 17 will be recognized for the first and only hole-in-one on a par four during a PGA Tour event, which was recorded by Andrew Magee in 2001.
• Major renovations were done before the 2016 event, with four greens completely rebuilt while the other 14 resurfaced and reshaped.  45 yards were added, but three holes will play slightly shorter.  Every bunker was redone, in most cases bringing them more into play.  Also, 250 trees were added, so combining trees and bunkers coming into play off the tee will make the course slightly tighter.  Despite the change, average scores may be a bit higher but look for the winning score, which has averaged 17 under par for the last 20 years, to stay the same.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the TPC Scottdale:

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Scottsdale, data from last year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, and data from all the field players for stats from 2023.

The field’s scoring average on TPC Scottsdale last year was 70.29, which is three-quarters of a shot under par. The course was the 26th hardest on the PGA Tour in 2022. In 2021 the scoring average was 69.45, making TPC Scottsdale the 42nd (out of 51) hardest course to score on in 2021. Because of the perfect conditions, it was the first time that 70 was broken since 2013, when the scoring average was 68.95.

Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for TPC Scottsdale from last year. With fast fairways, the course ranked 46th in driving distance with an average drive of 313.6 yards (out of 49 courses, which means that three courses saw drives further) and 10th in driving accuracy. Going a step further from the nine TPC courses used on the PGA Tour in 2022, TPC San Antonio was the only TPC course harder to get into the fairway. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens our most important stat. Last year, the course ranked 35th in greens in regulation, again reflecting the easy scoring conditions with the weather. Still, for the previous 14 years, all of the winners have been in the top-13 in greens hit, taking it a step further, those same champions, ten of them finished in the top four, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked T-11th. The previous year Brooks Koepka hit 62 of the 72 greens and ranked 1st. In 2020, Webb Simpson hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked T-6th. In 2019, Rickie Fowler won the event hitting 52 greens and ranked T-13th. We can give Fowler a pass when you consider the poor weather in the final round, with heavy rain during most of his round, which drove the final-round scoring average to 71.58 and led Fowler to shoot 74, the highest final-round by a winner on the PGA Tour since Steven Bowditch’s 74 in winning the 2014 Valero Texas Open. In Phoenix’s final round, Fowler hit 11 greens, which was the reason for his high ranking. Fowler ranked 19th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green with the lousy weather and the highest of the last few winners. Going back a year to Gary Woodland in 2018, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2017 winner Hideki was 18th in driving distance, T-6th in driving accuracy, and T-2nd in greens in regulation, finishing 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Before 2016, Matsuyama also won and was 35th in driving distance, T-44th in driving accuracy, and 1st in greens hit. This added up to 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so you can see the importance in this stat since the last four of the six winners have been either 1st or 2nd. Last year Scottie Scheffler was 8th in driving distance, T-18th in driving accuracy and T-11th in greens in regulation, totally up to finishing 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2021 Brooks Koepka was 6th in driving distance, T-27th in driving accuracy, and T-1st in greens in regulation, totally up to finishing 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The year before, Webb Simpson was 44th in driving distance, T-3rd in driving accuracy, and T-6th in greens in regulation, finishing 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
So our first category is Strokes Gained tee-to-green, which is crucial for keeping the ball in the fairways, hitting greens, and getting it close to the hole. Again the stats for most of the last 14 winners make this stat work, except for last year with Scheffler and in 2019 when Fowler struggled in poor weather.
Our second category is proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year the course ranked T-9th as the field averaged 39 feet from the hole. Last’s winner Scheffler, ranked 22nd, averaged 36 feet, one inch from the hole. Brooks Koepka was T-6th in this stat the previous year, hitting it 33 feet, 2 includes from the hole. In 2020 Webb Simpson was T-9th in this category, hitting it 35 feet, 1 inch away. Again, forget that Rickie Fowler in 2019 won and was 46th in this stat. In 2018 the champion Gary Woodland was 13th. In 2017 the winner Matsuyama, was 2nd, his average shot finishing 31 feet, 1 inch away. When Matsuyama won in 2016, he was 8th, his average shot finishing 35 feet, 10 inches away. For TPC Scottsdale in 2021, the course ranked 16th in proximity to hole.
After that, our third important category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies are significant. Last year TPC Scottsdale had 1,422 birdies and was 22nd in birdie average. Winner Scheffler was 1st in the field with 26 birdies and was 1st in Par Breakers. In 2021 Brooks Koepka was T-5th in the field, making 22 birdies (he also had two eagles) ranking T-5th. TPC Scottsdale had 1,569 birdies and was 35th in birdie average. In 2021, Webb Simpson was 2nd best in the field, making 21. In 2019 Rickie Fowler was the best in the field, making an eagle and 23 birdies, in 2018, Gary Woodland was the best in the field as he made one eagle, and his 26 birdies were the best of the week. Matsuyama was 12th in this stat as he had 19 birdies and an eagle the previous year.
Our last category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-makers delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 19th out of 49 courses, while Scheffler was T-53rd. In 2021, TPC Scottsdale ranked 24th out of 51 courses, while Brooks Koepka ranked T-50th before Webb Simpson ranked 14th. In 2019, Rickie Fowler was T-8th, and 2018 winner Gary Woodland was 25th. The previous year Matsuyama was 17th in scrambling.
So you can see that this isn’t a bomber’s course since accuracy is such a key. Another important thing is if the weather is good, and the only problems stem from freezing mornings in which frost creates delays. This year will be a repeat of last year, the forecast is as close to perfect as possible. Temperatures around the high 70s each day with minimal winds each day will create excellent scoring for the week. Sunday, however, will be chilly as it will only be 67 degrees, but it will be sunny, and winds will be minimum at 8 mph.

One last thing to think about, other than Koepka, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson, the last 11 winners aren’t what you call great putters, so I can see an average to below-average putter winning this event. Last year Scottie Scheffler was 58th in Strokes Gained Putting.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT TPC SCOTTSDALE:

*Strokes gained tee-to-Greens: Important because it shows how TPC Scottsdale ranked T-24th in this stat, meaning that a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, and greens hit is important

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, but proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, TPC Scottsdale ranked T-9th last year, 16th in 2021, and 5th in 2020 as the players averaged getting it 37 feet and 8 inches.

*Par Breakers: Desert courses always seem to give up a lot of birdies and eagles, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 22nd last year and 36th in 2021 in that stat. Making birdies and eagles at TPC Scottsdale could be a chore on some holes.

*Scrambling: Of the 51 courses on tour in 2022, TPC Scottsdale got it up and down 57.40% of the time, ranking 19th. So it’s important for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.

123 of the 134 Players from this year’s field with stats from this year (Rory McIlroy didn’t play enough rounds to get stats):

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the stats of all the players

DraftKings Tips

Look at some vital stats from the WM Phoenix Open

Of the 134 in the field, 109 have played at least once in the W.M. Phoenix Open.  Here are the players with the most under par totals in Phoenix since 2010:

• Rickie Fowler is 105 under in 44 rounds playing 13 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 101 under in 33 rounds playing 9 years
• Webb Simpson is 93 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Brendan Steele is 91 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Jon Rahm is 80 under in 28 rounds playing 7 years
• Martin Laird is 80 under in 46 rounds playing 13 years
• Billy Horschel is 74 under in 38 rounds playing 10 years
• Gary Woodland is 74 under in 40 rounds playing 12 years
• Matt Kuchar is 74 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Justin Thomas is 71 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Xander Schauffele is 64 under in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• J.B. Holmes is 60 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Scott Piercy is 58 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Keegan Bradley is 55 under in 40 rounds playing 11 years
• Zach Johnson is 55 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Harris English is 54 under in 34 rounds playing 10 years
• James Hahn is 49 under in 34 rounds playing 10 years
• Ryan Palmer is 48 under in 40 rounds playing 12 years
• Ryan Moore is 46 under in 44 rounds playing 13 years
• Chris Kirk is 45 under in 37 rounds playing 11 years
• Brian Harman is 44 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Nick Watney is 41 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Adam Hadwin is 39 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Jordan Spieth is 39 under in 20 rounds playing 6 years
• Max Homa is 39 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Russell Knox is 39 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years
• Chez Reavie is 37 under in 30 rounds playing 11 years
• J.T. Poston is 37 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Russell Henley is 36 under in 32 rounds playing 10 years
• Lucas Glover is 33 under in 34 rounds playing 10 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 32 under in 10 rounds playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Xander Schauffele is 64 under playing 5 years (-12.8)
• Jon Rahm is 80 under playing 7 years (-11.4)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 101 under playing 9 years (-11.2)
• Scottie Scheffler is 32 under playing 3 years (-10.7)
• Sungjae Im is 31 under playing 3 years (-10.3)
• Max Homa is 39 under playing 4 years (-9.8)
• Webb Simpson is 93 under playing 10 years (-9.3)
• J.T. Poston is 37 under playing 4 years (-9.3)
• Alex Noren is 28 under playing 3 years (-9.3)
• Justin Thomas is 71 under playing 8 years (-8.9)
• Matt Kuchar is 74 under playing 9 years (-8.2)
• Rickie Fowler is 105 under playing 13 years (-8.1)
• Nate Lashley is 24 under playing 3 years (-8.0)
• Brendan Steele is 91 under playing 12 years (-7.6)
• Billy Horschel is 74 under playing 10 years (-7.4)
• Corey Conners is 22 under playing 3 years (-7.3)
• Jordan Spieth is 39 under playing 6 years (-6.5)
• Martin Laird is 80 under playing 13 years (-6.2)
• Gary Woodland is 74 under playing 12 years (-6.2)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a total of 54 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,300
• Tony Finau – $10,100
• Xander Schauffele – $10,000
• Max Homa – $9,900
• Justin Thomas – $9,800
• Collin Morikawa – $9,700
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,500
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,400
• Viktor Hovland – $9,300
• Sungjae Im – $9,200
• Tom Kim – $9,100
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,000

What a great field and a lot of choices. We would love both Rahm and McIlroy, but their cost would prohibit taking any other players, as the next four would have to average $7,000. Jon Rahm at $11,000, is a great choice, he has been playing well, and we know that this week is essential to his ego to beat McIlroy in a head-to-head battle and retake the number one ranking. So you can’t go wrong in picking him. He averages 91.7 DraftKings points per event. But I don’t think this will be his week, so I am passing on him. As for Rory McIlroy at $10,800, he is the better choice coming off his Dubai win, and we have to think that this week and next in L.A. is him getting ready for the Masters. Scottie Scheffler, at $10,300, is also a great choice. He averages 92.2 DraftKings points and has finished in the top-11 in seven of his last eight starts. Tony Finau at $10,100 is, I think, priced too high, many because of his record at TPC Scottsdale. He has missed the cut in five of his last five starts, but making this every harder, his one cut made him finish 2nd in 2020. But his price is too high to justify him. Xander Schauffele at $10,000 would generally be a great choice. Anyone in the field has the best and most consistent record at TPC Scottsdale, finishing in the top-17 in all of his five starts, including a T-3rd last year and a T-2nd in 2021. The thing that bothers us is his back. It hasn’t been a problem since Hawaii, but you have to keep that in the back of our mind. Max Homa at $9,900 is usually a great pick, but he has historically misplayed right after a win, so we have to think about that. He was T-6th in this event in 2020 and T-14th last year. Justin Thomas at $9,800 is hard to say no to because his record at TPC Scottsdale includes a pair of 3rd place finishes and a T-8th last year. Still, he has struggled in 2023, and I think he needs a few more reps, especially in Florida, for his game to come around. Collin Morikawa at $9,700 is a yes, I think he is very close to finding a way of winning, and it could come this week or next. Patrick Cantlay at $9,500, is also someone to think of. He played great last year, only losing to Scheffler in a playoff. The only thing that bothers me about saying no to him is his inconsistent play in 2023. Hideki Matsuyama at $9,400, could be a great pick. He has an excellent record at TPC Scottsdale, but more importantly, I think he is healthy again and could sneak up and win this week. Viktor Hovland at $9,300 is a no for me. Sorry has missed two of two cuts in Phoenix and didn’t play great at Pebble. Sungjae Im at $9,200 is a no. Yes makes a lot of cuts and checks, but we don’t want a player who will finish T-15th and doesn’t get that many DraftKings points (averages only 75.6 per event). Tom Kim at $9,100 is a good choice. Yes, he is playing TPC Scottsdale for the first time, but he always seems to do well and will content this week. Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,000 is a no, yes was T-10th in his only start in Phoenix last year, but he didn’t look good at Pebble.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament. The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help. It’s a look at the 2010 WM Phoenix Open on who has made the most cuts. Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful. To get on this list, you have to make at least three Phoenix starts:

• Jon Rahm made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $11,000.
• Xander Schauffele made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $10,000.
• Max Homa made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $9,900.
• J.T. Poston made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,300.
• Sam Ryder made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $6,800.
• Mark Hubbard made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $6,300.
• Corey Conners made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,700.
• Shane Lowry made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $8,200.
• Alex Noren made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,600.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $9,200.
• Francesco Molinari made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,000.
• Billy Horschel made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,800.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%. His DraftKings cost is $9,400.
• Zach Johnson made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%. His DraftKings cost is $6,300.
• Matt Kuchar made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%. His DraftKings cost is $7,300.
• Brian Harman made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%. His DraftKings cost is $7,400.
• Adam Hadwin made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is $7,100.
• Patton Kizzire made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%. His DraftKings cost is $6,600.
• Keegan Bradley made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%. His DraftKings cost is $7,700.
• Webb Simpson made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,000.
• Martin Laird made 10 cuts in 13 starts for a 76.9%. His DraftKings cost is $6,700.
• Charley Hoffman made 10 cuts in 13 starts for a 76.9%. His DraftKings cost is $6,300.
• J.B. Holmes made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $6,100.
• Brendan Steele made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,200.
• Justin Thomas made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $9,800.
• Nick Watney made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $6,000.
• Keith Mitchell made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,400.
• J.J. Spaun made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,300.
• Brendon Todd made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is $7,100.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Cameron Young at $8,900, is a good pick. He was T-26th last year in this event and was good last week, finishing 2nd in Saudi Arabia. I think he is close to winning on the PGA Tour. Sahith Theegala at $8,500, is a great pick, he was T-3rd last year in Phoenix and played well at the Farmers. Just like Young, Theegala is due to win soon. Many folks are starting to see Taylor Montgomery, at $8,300, as an excellent choice. I am one of those, and even though he is priced reasonably, I am passing on him, thinking he won’t continue his outstanding play. Rickie Fowler at $8,000, could be a good choice because his game seems to be coming around, and he has a lot of great memories at TPC Scottsdale. Jason Day at $7,900 is a tossup. He is playing well, finishing T-7th at the Farmers, but he hasn’t played well in Phoenix, which tells us that this will not be his week. Billy Horschel at $7,800, is one to think about. He has played well at TPC Scottsdale and has been home in Florida, working hard on some swing changes. Alex Noren at $7,600, is our secret weapon for the week. He was T-6th at Phoenix last year, was T-5th at Abu Dhabi, T-2nd at DP World, and T-4th in Houston during his previous three starts. Maverick McNealy at $7,500 is cheap for a person like Maverick, but I think there are too many hazards with him and his shoulder.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Our first bargain is Keith Mitchell at $7,400. He was T-10th last year in Scottsdale and was T-4th at Pebble. Brian Harman, at $7,400, is an excellent pick because he made eight of nine cuts in this event and was runner-up twice in November at Mayakoba and RSM. Taylor Pendrith at $7,400 is also a thought, he makes a lot of cuts, and despite never playing in Phoenix, he played well at Pebble shooting a final round 64 to finish T-7th. Denny McCarthy at $7,200, is a great pick and has played well of late, including a T-4th at Pebble last week. The only problem, he has missed his previous two cuts in Phoenix and has not played great on this course. Adam Hadwin at $7,100, is an excellent pick because you know he will make the cut. Has made seven of eight at Phoenix and 11 in a row on the PGA Tour. The same with Brendon Todd at $7,100, he makes a lot of cuts and can help score many points by playing four rounds.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

The Key stat for the winner:

• It used to be the player with the hot putter dominated this tournament as between 1997 and 2007, all the champions except for one (2003 Vijay Singh) were in the top-nine in putting. On the reverse, between 1997 and 2008, of the 12 champions, only three were in the top ten of greens hit. Since 2008 of the 14 winners, Rickie Fowler broke the poor streak in 2019 when he ranked T-5th in putting. In 2020 Webb Simpson was T-14th, with Brooks Koepka T-33rd. Before that, the best was two players ranked 10th in putting as the winners ranked between 10th and 71st in putting. But in that same period, all the champions were in the top-6 of greens hit (the worst was Kevin Stadler, who ranked 10th, and Fowler, who ranked T-13th) while five of the winners in those eight years led the stat (Matsuyama led in 2016 and was T-2nd in 2017). A significant change came about to the course in 2004 and then in 2005, so it just took a bit before hitting lots of greens took over. Overall the TPC Scottsdale ranked 35th of all the courses in 2022 in greens in regulation, so it’s essential to hit all of the greens.
• Another key is to follow each one of our vital stats. Each week brings on a different course with different conditions and ways for players to embrace the course. Probably because the WM Phoenix Open always gets excellent weather, you will see each of our key stats materialize throughout the week’s play at this course, and the event is becoming easier to judge who will play well and who will not.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• One useless stat: The course is in the desert and had the longest driving average in past years. In 2014 the average drive was 301.4, but in 2015 it went down to 288.5, probably because of the changes made to the course before the 2015 tournament. Last year the course averaged 306.5 as it ranked 44th on the PGA Tour (only 7 other courses had higher driving averages). So common sense would be that the winners are big hitters, but that isn’t the case. Since 1997, only six of the last 25 champions have been in the top ten of the weekly driving distance stat, with eight out of the top-25. In 2019 Rickie Fowler was 11th in driving distance Webb Simpson was 44th in 2020, and Brooks Koepka was 6th in 2021. Last year Scottie Scheffler was 8th, while TPC Scottsdale was 36th. Still, hitting it long really doesn’t help in winning this tournament.
• 14 of the last 26 champions had a Top-10 finish within three weeks before they won the championship, so look for someone playing well to win. In 2009 Kenny Perry finished T6th at Kapalua just three weeks before the Phoenix Open, but Hunter Mahan was not playing well leading up to the 2010 event. In 2011 Mark Wilson won just two weeks before the event at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and in 2012 Kyle Stanley lost a playoff the week before winning at Phoenix. Unfortunately, that trend ended as the last three winners didn’t play well before winning. In 2015 Brooks Koepka was playing his first event in six weeks, taking some time off, so the time off was perfect for him. In 2016 Hideki Matsuyama finished 2nd in the SBS Tournament of Champions along with his four wins in the last three months. In 2017 Matsuyama finished T-4th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, so look for a player that has done well. In 2018 Gary Woodland was T-7th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T-12th at the Farmers the week before Phoenix. In 2019 Fowler didn’t play that much, but five weeks before, he did finish T-5th at the Hero Challenge. In 2020 Webb Simpson was 2nd in the RSM Classic and 3rd at the Sony Open, his last starts before winning in Phoenix. Now the myth gets completely blown out of the water with Brooks Koepka. He was injured before his injury, and to show how poorly he was playing, he missed the cut in the three events before Phoenix. Last year Scottie Scheffler was 2nd at the Hero World Challenge a month and a half before winning in Phoenix.
• Players can’t be afraid of a lot of people watching, considering as many as 100,000 will be in attendance over the weekend.
• Players must hit lots of greens and make lots of birdies. In the last 26 years, the winners have averaged hitting 75.2% of the greens and averaged 22.4 birdies for the week. In 2020 Webb Simpson hit 56 of 72 greens and made one eagle and 21 birdies. In 2021 Brooks Koepka hit 62 of 72 greens and made two eagles and 22 birdies. Last year Scottie Scheffler hit 56 of 72 greens and made 26 birdies.
• One last important fact is that birdies must be made on par 4s. This is one of those events in which scoring is lower on the par 4s than the par 5s. Since 1997, 16 of the 26 champions have done better. In 2015, Brooks Koepka played the par 5s in just 2 under par while he was 11 under on the par 4s. In 2016 Hideki Matsuyama played the par 5s in 6 under while he was 9 under on the par 4s. In 2018 Woodland was 8 under on the par 4s and 10 under on the par 5s. In 2019 Rickie Fowler was 7 under on the par 5s but 9 under on the par 4s. In 2020 Webb Simpson was 14 under on the par 4s and 3 under on the par 5s. In 2021 Koepka was only 5 under on the par 4s and 10 under on the par 5s. Last year Scottie Scheffler was 8 under on the par 5s but 11 under on the par 4s.
• This week will see great weather as conditions couldn’t be any better in Scottsdale with every day being in the high 70s, no rain and very little wind. Sunday will be a touch cold at 69 degrees.