BlogGenesis Invitational Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So the seven-week west coast swing ends this week, and with that, the Tour moves east to spend time on courses in Florida and Texas as players prepare for the Masters. In the next six weeks, there will be the Players Championship, a World Golf Championship event, plus two more designated events.  All the courses will be in great shape with Bermuda greens, and some players will love to say goodbye to Poa Annua greens and new challenges. So as we bid farewell to the west coast, we will see if players that have done well over the last 6 weeks, like Jon Rahm, Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, and Justin Rose, will continue to play well. One of the surprises of this year’s west coast swing is the caliber of winners, and that all six winners have won before on the PGA Tour, and in the 15 events on the PGA Tour in 2023, only one, Adam Svensson at RSM, never won before. Even more surprising, four of the six winners are in the top-12 of the Official World Golf Rankings, and the other two, Si Woo Kim is 42nd, and Justin Rose is 36.

This week has a loaded field in Los Angeles as all top-ten players are in the field. Because of the upgrade of the Genesis to a designated event, the purse is up from $12 million last year to #20 million this year, with the winner getting $3.6 million. It joins Phoenix as the highest, non-major, Players or FedExCup playoff event. So just like last week no holding back. If you’re in a pick your pro, you will want to use your best player. Despite it being highly regarded, five of the winners in the last decade weren’t the players you thought could win. Defending champion Joaquin Niemann is a perfect example. Yes, he may have won the 2019 Greenbrier, but many considered that a flunk as he wasn’t considered a player to win. On DraftKings, you could have bought him for just $7,800. The same year with Max Homa, you could have gotten him for only $8,200. The same with 2020 winner Adam Scott, not many folks gave him much of a chance, you could have purchased him for $9,000. Or the previous winner J.B. Holmes, you could have paid only $7,200 on Thursday morning on DraftKings.  Same with guys like James Hahn in 2015 or John Merrick in 2013. It was his first and probably only win on the PGA Tour for Merrick. Since winning ten years ago, he has played in 127 PGA Tour events and has only been in the top ten once, a T-6th in the 2013 RBC Canadian Open. He is not on the PGA or the Korn Ferry Tours, he only played nine times in 2022 and hasn’t played since the 2022 3M Open.  The point is, no matter how loaded a field is, there is always another John Merrick ready to surprise us all.

But before we say “adios” to California… 

We have one more stop and some unusual items this week.

Scottie Scheffler won again in Phoenix, we have to wonder if he can accomplish the same things as last year, winning four times in two months and topping it with a Masters win.

This week is going to be very interesting. In looking at the Top-ten, everyone except Patrick Cantlay is playing well and could contend this week. I like Viktor Hovland for some odd reason. I think his game is close, and if he could find a good mindset could win. Of those in the top ten, Cantlay is in a weird place. He finished T-2nd at the Shriners and didn’t play again until the Sentry T of C, where he finished T-16th.  Since then, he has gone downhill, he was T-26th at the American Express and missed the cut in Phoenix.

Who could surprise us this week?

Just like Justin Rose surprised us at Pebble Beach, could this be Adam Scott’s week?  He has won twice at Riviera and was T-4th last year.  He was 2nd at the Australian Open in December and was T-21st in his last start at the Sony Open.

Could this be the week for Tony Finau.  He lost in the playoff to Max Homa in the 2021 Genesis and has played well on the west coast swing.  He was T-7th at the Sentry, T-16th at American Express, T-9th at Farmers, and T-14th at Phoenix.

We also should watch Justin Thomas, who was 4th in Phoenix.  He has mixed results at Riviera.  His last four starts were 2nd in 2019, missed the cut in 2020 & ’21, and was 6th last year.

Also, have to watch Jason Day, he has been getting better in his starts, was T-7th at the Farmers and 5th last week in Phoenix.

Could Jordan Spieth win?  He has some good history at Riviera, including a T-4th in 2015 and was T-6th in Phoenix.

Also, don’t forget Rickie Fowler, who was T-11th at the Farmers and T-10th in Phoenix.

Who else should we be looking at? First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.  

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

Things you need to know about Riviera and the Genesis Open

• Riviera C.C. has held a U.S. Open, two PGA Championships. a Senior Open, and the U.S. Amateur.  No other stop on the PGA Tour can claim the distinction of holding those three majors and the highest Amateur championship in golf. Of the 54 courses that will hold a PGA Tour event this year, Riviera, Pebble Beach, and Oak Hill are the only ones that have hosted both the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship.
• In the history of this tournament, 72 different champions, 50 of the 94 winners have also won a major championship.  Going a step further, 36 of the 59 winners at Riviera have also won a major championship. Of those 36, 22 have also won the Masters, so there is a link between winners at both Augusta National and Riviera.
• Taking a step further, in tournaments going back to 1925, more Hall of Fame members have won at the Genesis than any other tournament.  The Genesis has been won 39 times by 25 different Hall of Fame members, the closest to it is the BMW Open which has been won 37 times by 22 different Hall of Fame players.  As you can see, this event has an excellent track record for producing first-class champions.
• One last thing to look for is the close finish.  There have been 19 playoffs at the tournament, with eight coming since 1998, including wins by Billy Mayfair (1998), Robert Allenby (2001), Mike Weir (2003), Adam Scott (2005), and Charles Howell III (2007), Bill Haas (2012), John Merrick (2013) and James Hahn (2015). Dating back to 1989, the tournament ended either in a playoff (9 times) or with a one-stroke win (10 times).  So out of the last 32 times, the event has been played – 19 have been won by a playoff or a shot. But we have now seen four years of rarities in the last five years.  In 2017 when Dustin Johnson lapped the field, winning by five shots, and in 2018 when Bubba Watson beat Tony Finau and Kevin Na by two shots. J.B. Holmes beat Justin Thomas by just a shot in 2019. In 2021 Adam Scott beat Matt Kuchar, Sung Kang, and Scott Brown by two shots, the same as Joaquin Niemann last year as he beat Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young by two shots.

Course information:

• Riviera Country Club
• Pacific Palisades, Calif.
• 7,322 yards     Par 35-36–71
• The course has a 74.3 rating and a slope rating of 139 from the championship tees. Riviera is a private club.
• Last year Riviera was the 21st hardest course on tour, with a 70.46 average.  In 2021 it was the 17th hardest course on tour, with a 71.27 scoring average.  It was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour the year before, with a 71.26 average.  In 2019 it also was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 71.20 scoring average.  In 20018, Riviera was the 9th hardest course with a 71.76 average.  In 2017 it was the 23rd hardest course, with a 71.01 average. In 2016 Riviera was the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 71.02 average. In 2015 Riviera was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 72.59 average, while in 2014, Riviera was the 24th hardest course playing to a 71.209 average while in 2013, Riviera was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 71.85 average.
• Riviera was designed by George Thomas, with some help from William Bell, and was opened in 1927.  In 2001, Riviera brought in architect Tom Fazio with the goal of improving the course for a bid to host the 2008 U.S. Open, which ended up going to Torrey Pines.  Fazio did lengthen several holes, enlarge some of the greens, and restore five of the holes to their original design before a flood forced them to be changed.  Riviera also saw a significant renovation in 1993 when Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore renovated all of the greens. Four years ago, the course had all of its bunkers restored.
• In the summer of 2009, Riviera Country Club completed phase II of the restoration of hole #8, directed by Fazio Golf Course Designers. The modifications intended to restore the 1926 original design intent of George Thomas’ “Double Fairway built around a dry wash.” In 1939, the original design intent was lost to a strong flood that scoured the “dry wash” along with the right fairway. Phase I of the restoration, in 2000, involved restoring the right fairway. Phase II included restoring the dry wash barranca, thus cutting the fairway into two parts.
• The average green size at the Riviera is 5,000 square feet, which is slightly under the PGA Tour average.  The course has 57 bunkers and no water hazards, but there is a dry barranca that comes into play for the pros on six holes.

History of Riviera:

Riviera Country Club is one of golf’s most intriguing clubs.

In 1922, Frank Garbutt, who was the vice president of the downtown Los Angeles Athletic Club, was looking for a golf course site for the club. He found a piece of property in the Santa Monica Canyon,  about two miles from the Pacific Ocean.  As he stood on an 80-foot bluff overlooking the canyon, where  Riviera’s clubhouse stands today,  Garbutt knew he had found the perfect site.

Garbutt hired George Thomas to design the course, but when the noted architect made his first site inspection, he didn’t share Garbutt’s opinion.  Thomas wasn’t impressed with the property and told Garbutt that any course built on the site would cost the club a bundle. Garbutt told Thomas to create the best course in the world at any cost.

Thomas brought in 200 men to clear the canyon. He installed a state-of-the-art irrigation system and hauled 19,000 pounds of grass seed and topsoil from the San Fernando Valley.  When the course was finished in 1927, it cost $675,000, giving it the distinction of being the most expensive course ever built.  That didn’t include the architect’s fee because Thomas, a wealthy man who dabbled in course architecture, never charged a dime for his work.

Bottom line, Thomas built what many considered the best course in the West.  In 1939, when the National Golf Foundation named the ten best courses in America, Riviera placed third behind Pine Valley and Pinehurst No. 2.  Seventy years later, it still ranks among the best in various course ratings and opinion polls.

Riviera gained fame as the club of choice for movie stars.  Among them were Douglas Fairbanks (who put up $1,000 of the $10,000 prize fund for the first Los Angeles Open), W.C. Fields, Basil Rathbone, Dean  Martin, Burt Lancaster, and Sammy Davis Jr.  In the 70s, the membership included Glen Campbell, Peter Falk, James Garner, and Robert Wagner.  Scenes from several movies were shot at Riviera, including “Pat and Mike,” “The Caddy,” and “Follow the Sun.”

Today, those familiar with Riviera as a PGA Tour stop also recognize it as the course with the Kikuyu grass and a bunker in the middle of the green.

Kikuyu is a robust and sturdy strain of grass that was imported from Africa more than 70 years ago for use on polo grounds.  When Riviera opened, polo was popular in L.A. There were several polo grounds in the neighborhood.  There are many stories about how Kikuyu appeared at Riviera, but the tale most often told is that one night after a local polo field was seeded, a windstorm carried the Kikuyu seed onto Riviera.  Since Kikuyu grass is essentially a weed, it proliferated. The course superintendent ignored its encroachment, and before he knew it, Riviera had been taken over by Kikuyu.

Instead of resisting its growth, Riviera learned how to perfect Kikuyu. Today it blankets the course, making a pitch and run shots nearly impossible because the thick grass grabs the club head.  Many believe Kikuyu is the finest form of grass to play off fairways because the ball sits up, regardless of the lie.

Riviera’s other unique feature is the sixth hole, a 170-yard par 3 that features a bunker in the middle of the green, making the putting surface into a doughnut shape. If a player’s tee shot lands on the wrong side of the bunker, he must chip over the sand or take several putts around it. For the average player, option No. 1 means taking a divot out of the green.

Riviera has held several major championships.  The 1948 U.S. Open was the first and won by Ben Hogan, who shot 8-under-par  276, an Open scoring record that stood until Jack Nicklaus posted a 5-under-par 275 in 1967 at Baltusrol.

In 1983, the PGA Championship was held at Riviera and won by Hal Sutton. The PGA returned in 1995, with Steve Elkington beating Colin Montgomerie in a playoff. Both shot 267, which remains the record for any major championship.

Riviera hosted a Senior Tour major in 1998 when Hale Irwin rebounded from a first-round 77 and claimed the title.

Unfortunately, the odds of Riviera holding another major are slim, even though it did hold the U.S. Amateur championship in 2017.  Now the course will host the Olympics in 2028. The course is regarded as one of the gems on the PGA Tour, but traffic is a mess, and the congested neighborhood offers limited options for parking, hospitality, and merchandise tents.  Still, for the pros, it’s a special treat, for most of them, once a year.

Major Championships held at Riviera:

• 1948 U.S. Open won by Ben Hogan
• 1983 PGA Championship won by Hal Sutton
• 1995 PGA Championship won by Steve Elkington
• 1998 U.S. Senior Open won by Hale Irwin
• 2017 U.S. Amateur won by Doc Redman

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Riviera:

This is based on Riviera’s most important stats, based on data from last year’s Genesis Invitational, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
The scoring average of Riviera’s field last year was 70.46, and it ranked 21st hardest on Tour. In 2021 Riviera’s field average was 71.27, ranking 17th hardest on Tour. In 2021 it was 71.26, and it ranked the 10th hardest on Tour. Now, what controls this is the weather. Of course, when one thinks of a tournament being played in Los Angeles, one thinks of great weather and nothing but sunshine. Many people believe that all the pros play in sunglasses to protect their eyes from the sun’s glare, but that’s not the case. Riviera is located in Pacific Palisades, just outside of Los Angeles, and the course is on top of a hill about a mile from the Pacific Ocean. So during the day, it could be 85 degrees 15 miles away in Downtown Los Angeles but only 65 at Riviera. The weather can be venerable despite what you may think of Los Angeles in mid-February. In 2020, the weather couldn’t be better. Last year the weather was perfect, thus low scores. But in 2021, on Saturday, inclement weather, including winds up to 35 mph, played havoc. Still, things were good the rest of the time, so the scoring average was around par. But in 2019, when the scoring average was 71.20 (ranked 10th), it was rainy the first two days as all four days it never got warmer than 62, and over the weekend, the winds blew between 10 and 25 mph. Same with 2018, when the scoring average was 71.76, the course ranked 9th hardest. Now it doesn’t have to rain to make it play tough. In 2015 the course played hard, the average was 72.59 (ranked 5th hardest course for the year) as the course was dry and fast, with high winds during the tournament playing havoc for the players.
The good news is that for this year, just like at Torrey Pines for the Farmers, the weather at Riviera is going to be ok, a bit cold with temperatures in the low 60s and winds in the ten mph range, with partly sunny skies all four days and no chance of rain. The one thing that this doesn’t help is short hitters, as the ball won’t fly as long.

In looking at Riviera’s stats, every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and a key to playing the course well. The course ranked 5th in greens hit last year and 2nd in greens hit in 2021, which is the norm for any year of perfect weather. In 2020 it ranked 2nd, in 2019, it ranked 10th, while in 2018, it ranked 1st.
In driving accuracy, the course was 5th last year, 2nd in 2021, 4th in 2020, 12th in 2019, and 5th in 2018. So the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential. Last year, we saw this as tournament winner Joaquin Niemann was 58th in Fairways hit and T-14th in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Niemann was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 17th. The previous year’s winner Max Homa was T-3rd in Fairways hit and T-5th in greens hit, which since keeping stats in 1997, was the best of those stats for winners. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Homa was 3rd, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 2nd. Now in previous years, fairways hit weren’t as important. Homa was the best for any champion in 25 years as in that time period, only three winners finished in the top ten of fairways hit (Bubba Watson in 2014 & Nick Faldo in 1997)
A critical thing for Riviera is getting the ball close from the fairway; Riviera was 2nd in Proximity to Hole last year and 5th in Proximity to Hole in 2021. The year before, Riviera was 4th, and the same in ’19 & ’18. It ranked T-6th in 2017 and 5th in both 2016 and 2015. So we see that good players from tee to green have a distinctive advantage. Last year Niemann was 5th in this stat. The previous winners haven’t seen to do well in this stat as Homa in 2021 ranked T-34th, 2020 champion Adam Scott ranked T-18th, and 2019 champion J.B. Holmes was T-30th.

Putting also showed that you have to putt well. This is because Riviera has probably the most problematic greens for players to putt on. With Poa Annua and being close to the ocean, the greens along with Pebble Beach two weeks ago are probably some of the bumpiest on Tour. That is why the course ranked 6th last year on the PGA Tour and 5th in 2021 in putting inside ten feet. In 2020 it ranked 3rd, in 2019 it ranked 2nd, in 2018, it ranked 4th in putting, while in 2017, it was 7th, it was 2nd in 2016, and 3rd in 2015. Last year it ranked 3rd in putting from 4 to 8 feet on the PGA Tour, while it was 2nd in 2020. In 2019 it ranked 3rd, 6th in 2018, 4th in 2017, 2nd in 2016, and was 1st in 2015. So it makes sense that putting is probably the 3rd most crucial stat for the players.

So how did the winner Joaquin Niemann do last year, and what was the key to him winning? He didn’t hit many fairways, only 25, which is the lowest of any winner going back to 1997. He hit 47 of 72 greens, which ranked T-14th, and despite these poor stats was 1st in Strokes Gained Approach the Green and 2nd in Strokes Gained Around the Green. So it only makes sense that Niemann was 10th in Scrambling and had the lowest amount of putts with 102. He was 7 under on the par 4s and 10 under on the par 5s. But the big key for Niemann was shooting 63 in the first and second rounds for a two-shot lead and just held on with a 68-71 finish.

So how did the winner Max Homa do in 2021? It took a two-hole playoff for him to beat Tony Finau. He was a shot better than Sam Burns and three shots better than Cameron Smith, who finished 4th. So how did Homa win? He was 2nd in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 9th in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Homa hit a lot of fairways, 32 of 56 to rank 3rd, hit 45 of 72 greens to rank T-5th. Putting was good, yes he was T-23rd in putting inside ten feet, but he was 1st in putting average. Now the key for Homa was consistency, he made only 17 birdies to rank T-7th but also made only nine bogeys for the week. His final round 66 included five birdies, and he was one of three players (Viktor Hovland & Jim Furyk) to go bogey-free in the final round.

So how did 2020 winner Adam Scott do? He was two shots better than Matt Kuchar, Scott Brown, and Sung Kang and three shots better than Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Joel Dahmen, Max Homa, and Bryson DeChambeau. So how did Scott win? He wasn’t as good as others have been off the tee as he hit only 23 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-63rd, but he hit 52 of 72 greens, which ranked 1st. In Proximity to the hole, he was T-18th and was T-33rd rough Proximity. This is the big reason why Scott won, it wasn’t due to putting. In Strokes Gained Putting, he ranked 27th at Riviera. In putts from 4 to 8 feet, he ranked T-40th and was 51st in putts inside 10 feet. Scott was good in birdies making 21 to lead that stat, and it translated to 2nd in Par Breakers.

So let’s see how 2019 champion J.B. Holmes won. He floundered off the tee hitting 29 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-59th. But like Scott and Homa, he was good at hitting 52 greens to rank T-2nd. But the key for Holmes winning was his putter. He dispelled his reputation of not being a great putter when Holmes was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting for the week. In putting from 4 to 8 feet, he was 3rd, and in the inside 10 feet range was 10th, making 61 of 68 putts in that range. So let’s see how Bubba Watson won the Genesis in 2018. He was two shots better than Kevin Na and Tony Finau. So how did Watson win? He was good from off the fairway, Watson was T-7th, hitting 46 of 72 greens, and was 9th in Proximity to hole. He ranked T-27th in fairways hit. In Par Breakers, he was 1st making an eagle and 20 birdies. Talking about birdies on the three par 5s, he played them in 8 under par, since 1997, only five champions played the par 5s better.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT RIVIERA:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: A way to gauge how players save shots from tee to green. Important because Riviera is a “shot-makers” course, and those that are good from tee to green tend to do well at Riviera. Now the rough isn’t harsh at Riviera, but hitting the 5,000-square-foot greens is tough.

*Greens in Regulation: Important to see who hits the most greens at Riviera. Since the greens are middle-sized, hitting them is important and is the reason for player success at Riviera.

*Putting inside 10 feet: In 2012 & ’15, Riviera had the most challenging greens to putt on for the year. In 2013, ’14, ’16, and ’19, they were the 2nd hardest on Tour. Last year it ranked 6th, while the year before, it ranked 5th. Players are sometimes puzzled by the greens, which get bumpy and very hard to read in the afternoon. So making those putts are crucial in winning.

*Par 5 scoring average: Two of Riviera’s three par 5s are easy to get home in two and score well on. The longest of them is 17th, and most of the time is played downwind, thus making that hole a birdie hole. The winner will do well on the par 5s.

117 of the 130 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the stats for players at the Genesis Invitational.

DraftKings Tips

Look at some vital stats from the Genesis Invitational

Of the 130 in the field, 103 have played at least once in the Genesis since 2010.  Here are the players with the most under-par totals at the Genesis in the last ten years:

• Adam Scott is 57 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• J.B. Holmes is 36 under in 46 rounds, playing 12 years
• Matt Kuchar is 30 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Xander Schauffele is 30 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 29 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Justin Rose is 27 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Jon Rahm is 26 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Max Homa is 24 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• James Hahn is 22 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Justin Thomas is 22 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Jordan Spieth is 21 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Rory McIlroy is 21 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Viktor Hovland is 21 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Collin Morikawa is 19 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 18 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Tony Finau is 18 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Cameron Young is 17 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Patrick Rodgers is 14 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Luke Donald is 12 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Luke List is 12 under in 22 rounds, playing 7 years
• J.T. Poston is 11 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Wyndham Clark is 11 under in 8 rounds, playing 3 years
• Adam Hadwin is 10 under in 30 rounds, playing 8 years
• Keegan Bradley is 10 under in 40 rounds, playing 12 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 10 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Viktor Hovland is 21 under, playing 2 years (-10.5)
• Jon Rahm is 26 under, playing 4 years (-6.5)
• Collin Morikawa is 19 under, playing 3 years (-6.3)
• Xander Schauffele is 30 under, playing 5 years (-6.0)
• Adam Scott is 57 under, playing 10 years (-5.7)
• Matt Fitzpatrick is 9 under, playing 2 years (-4.5)
• Rory McIlroy is 21 under, playing 5 years (-4.2)
• Max Homa is 24 under, playing 6 years (-4.0)
• Justin Rose is 27 under, playing 7 years (-3.9)
• Wyndham Clark is 11 under, playing 3 years (-3.7)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 29 under, playing 8 years (-3.6)
• J.B. Holmes is 36 under, playing 12 years (-3.0)
• Justin Thomas is 22 under, playing 8 years (-2.8)
• Patrick Cantlay is 18 under, playing 7 years (-2.6)
• Matt Kuchar is 30 under, playing 12 years (-2.5)
• Scottie Scheffler is 10 under, playing 4 years (-2.5)
• Sahith Theegala is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Tommy Fleetwood is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• James Hahn is 22 under, playing 9 years (-2.4)
• Tony Finau is 18 under, playing 8 years (-2.3)
• Lanto Griffin is 7 under, playing 3 years (-2.3)
• J.T. Poston is 11 under, playing 5 years (-2.2)
• Jordan Spieth is 21 under, playing 10 years (-2.1)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a total of 55 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Jon Rahm – $11,100
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,700
• Rory McIlroy – $10,500
• Justin Thomas – $10,100
• Xander Schauffele – $9,900
• Max Homa – $9,700
• Tony Finau – $9,500
• Sungjae Im – $9,400
• Collin Morikawa – $9,300
• Sam Burns – $9,100
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,000

Have to say this, a great field this week at Genesis gives you many options.  But one option you won’t have is taking two players over $10,000.  That will make it even harder.  A key that could help many good players in the 9,000 range, it’s possible to take three of them.  Taking Schauffele, Morikawa, and Cantlay will cost $28,200, leaving you with $21,800 or about $7,267 per your next three choices.  Look at our list of those that make the most cuts at Genesis, and you will see a lot of great players under $7,600 that you can choose from that could surprise you.  You can even go with a Adam Scott and Justin Rose at $8,000 or a, Rickie Fowler at $7,900 and Jason Day at $8,400, or possibly Billy Horschel at $7,200 to help average things out.

Jon Rahm is $11,100 and very high, but he has played well of late and averages 92.3 DraftKings Points per event.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,700 is also high, but he has played well all year and, after winning last year at Phoenix, was T-7th at Riviera.  He has averaged 93.3 points per event, and we just can’t beat that.  Rory McIlroy at $10,500, is another high player, but he offers a lot and has done well at Riviera, including a T-4th in 2019, T-5th in 2020, and a missed cut in 2021 and T-10th last year.  I really like Justin Thomas at $10,100, he was runner-up at Riviera in 2019 and 6th last year.  His game showed a lot of magic at Phoenix, and I can see that good play carrying over.  Xander Schauffele at $9,900 is also a good buy, has been consistent at Riviera and since withdrawing from the Sentry, was T-3rd at the American Express, T-13th at the Farmers, and T-10th last week in Phoenix.  We can’t say anything bad about Max Homa at $9,700.  Has played well of late and won at Riviera in 2021, can’t get better than that.  Tony Finau at $9,500, is an excellent pick, He lost a playoff at Riviera in 2021 and has finished in the top-16 in his last six starts.  Sungjae Im at $9,400 is a no for me, has never played well at Riviera, and even though he was T-4th at the farmers and T-6th in Phoenix don’t think this will be his week.  Collin Morikawa at $9,300 has folks wondering how he missed the cut in Phoenix, but it’s a new week, and Morikawa was runner-up last year and other than Phoenix, has played well.  Sam Burns at $9,100 is a no, other than finishing 3rd at Riviera in 2021, he has played ok of late but nothing great.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,000 is a no, he is just in this funk and hasn’t shown us enough for his Riviera play.

Here is our new feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Genesis on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Genesis starts:

• Justin Rose made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $8,000.
• Xander Schauffele made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $9,900.
• Jon Rahm made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $11,100.
• Alex Noren made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $7,300.
• K.H. Lee made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $7,400.
• Collin Morikawa made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $9,300.
• Lanto Griffin made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $6,500.
• Patton Kizzire made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $6,400.
• J.B. Holmes made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is $6,000.
• Adam Scott made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $8,000.
• James Hahn made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is $6,700.
• Adam Hadwin made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is $7,500.
• Matt Kuchar made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is $7,100.
• Jordan Spieth made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $8,600.
• Rory McIlroy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $10,500.
• J.T. Poston made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $7,300.
• Justin Thomas made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $10,100.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $8,200.
• Tony Finau made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $9,500.
• Luke Donald made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $6,200.
• Stewart Cink made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $6,300.
• Brian Harman made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $7,500.
• Scottie Scheffler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is $10,700.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I like Viktor Hovland at $8,900, his record at Riviera is good, with a T-5th in 2021 and a T-4th last year.  Has played ok of late, yes it could be better, but Hovland is good on Poa greens.  Jordan Spieth at $8,600 is worth the money, his game came around in Phoenix, and he has played ok at Riviera.  Everything about Jason Day at $8,400 is good.  His game and putting have come around, and he is playing like he used to play ten years ago.  Justin Rose is a bargain at $8,000.  His win showed that he still can play, and he has always played well at Riviera.  The same with Adam Scott at $8,000, who has special magic at Riviera and hard courses.  Rickie Fowler at $7,900, has been steadily improving, and only in a matter of time, like this week, that he gets into the final round.  Sahith Theegala at $7,800 is a good price for his consistency this year.  Also, like Adam Hadwin at $7,500, he has a steady record at Riviera and has played well of late, making his last 12 cuts.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

I really don’t know what to say about Tiger Woods.  He is priced at $7,300, which seems like a bargain, but he has always struggled at Riviera and had trouble walking on courses in December.  I have to say no to him.  Alex Noren is $7,300 and was a big disappointment last week, missing the cut at Phoenix.  Still, he has played steadily at Riviera, and on the year, so I think he is worth the price.  Billy Horschel is $7,200, and we feel he is worth the price, but it may be best to pass on him.  He has struggled at Riviera and is mostly a Florida player.  He is also going through swing changes, so I must say to pass on him.  Matt Kuchar at $7,100 is a good choice due to his good record at Riviera and his low price tag.  He is worth choosing since he will probably make the cut and earn you points.  The same with Kurt Kitayama at $7,100, worth taking just because he can make the cut.  While we are on the subject of making cuts, Thomas Detry at $7,100, has made the cut in his last 12 events around the world, and in his last 11 events averages 84.1 DraftKings points, so he is the bargain of all bargains.  In the same realm, others who play well at Riviera making cuts that you should consider is James Hahn at $6,700, has made eight of nine cuts at Riviera, and Luke Donald at $6,200, plays well at Riviera and has a shot at making the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Genesis:

The key stat for the winner:

• I find it very interesting that of all the courses on the PGA Tour year in and year out, Riviera has been in the top ten every year since they kept track in 2003 of making the least amount of putts from 10 feet and in.  The reason for that is the poa annua greens are very tricky to putt and late in the afternoon, get bumpy, which creates more challenges than ever.  So look for a player with lots of patience with the putter and who can overcome these obstacles.

So the stat shows that you have to make those pesky putts if you want to win, look at how it’s been done since 2003.

• In 2022 players made 86.92%, which ranked 6th on tour.  Winner Joaquin Niemann made 89.869%, ranking 23rd.
• In 2021 players made 86.14%, which ranked 5th on tour.  Winner Max Homa made 88.89%, ranking T-23rd.
• In 2020 players made 85.10%, which ranked 3rd on tour.  Winner Adam Scott made 83.787%, ranking 51st.
• In 2019 players made 85.33%, which ranked 2nd on tour.  Winner J.B. Holmes made 89.717%, ranking 10th.
• In 2018 players made 85.79%, which ranked 4th on tour.  Winner Bubba Watson made 87.67%, ranking T-32nd.
• In 2017 players made 86.20%, which ranked 7th on tour.  Winner Dustin Johnson made 92.54%, ranking 6th.
• In 2016 players made 84.69%, which ranked 1st on tour.  Winner Bubba Watson made 91.67%, ranking T-5th.
• In 2015 players made 85.15%, which ranked 1st on tour.  Winner James Hahn made 82.05%, ranking 65th.
• In 2014 players made 84.87%, which ranked 2nd on tour.  Winner Bubba Watson made 88.57%, ranking 18th
• In 2013 players made 83.37%, which ranked 2nd on tour.  Winner John Merrick made 85.53%, ranking T33rd
• In 2012 players made 84.39%, which ranked 1st on tour.  Winner Bill Haas made 87.14%, ranking 22nd
• In 2011 players made 84.84%, which ranked 1st on tour.  Winner Aaron Baddeley made 91.18%, ranking 6th
• In 2010 players made 86.48%, which ranked 8th on tour.  Winner Steve Stricker made 84.51%, ranking 61st
• In 2009 players made 85.67%, which ranked 7th on tour.  Winner Phil Mickelson made 87.84%, ranking T29th
• In 2008 players made 85.08%, which ranked 5th on tour.  Winner Phil Mickelson made 91.55%, ranking 4th
• In 2007 players made 85.35%, which ranked 6th on tour.  Winner Charles Howell made 91.78%, ranking 2nd
• In 2006 players made 85.30%, which ranked 3rd on tour.  Winner Rory Sabbatini made 82.89%, ranking T63rd
• In 2005 players made 86.53%, which ranked 8th on tour.  Winner Adam Scott made 85.71%, ranking T57th
• In 2004 players made 85.04%, which ranked 4th on tour.  Winner Mike Weir made 93.75%, ranking 4th
• In 2003 players made 84.90%, which ranked 1st on tour.  Winner Mike Weir made 85.71%, ranking T38th

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

Unbelievable and bizarre stat:

• Riviera is a classic layout and a different breed than most courses on the PGA Tour. So you would think placing drives in the right spot is essential.  Consider some of the champions over the last 27 years:  Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Bill Haas, Steve Stricker, Charles Howell III, Rory Sabbatini, Mike Weir, Len Mattiace, Nick Faldo, Kirk Triplett, Craig Stadler, Corey Pavin, Tom Kite, and Ted Schultz have the reputation of being the best in placing drives in the right spot.  So that means only one thing, driving is significant at Riviera?  Sorry but that isn’t the case.  Before 2021 the last winner to finish in the top ten in driving stats was 2014 winner Bubba Watson who was T8th, but before that, it was Nick Faldo in 1997.  In 2021 Max Homa showed that hitting fairways was important in his win, in 2021 ranked 3rd in Fairways hit, 32 of 56,  Of the 26 since 1997, only seven have finished in the top-25, so that means that 18 of them were out of the top-25, amazing.  In 2020 Adam Scout was T-23rd, in 2019, J.B. Holmes was T-59th in driving accuracy. So being a straight driver is not an advantage at Riviera, even though Max Homa proved that wrong last year. Last year Joaquin Niemann went back to the premise of winners not finding the fairways at Riviera, as he was 58th in Driving Accuracy.
• Experience is key. The list of champions in the last 30 years includes Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson Fred Couples, Tom Kite, Corey Pavin, Craig Stadler, Nick Faldo, Ernie Els, and Mike Weir, all major championship winners.  There have been 25 different Hall of Fame members that have won 39 championships, so the cream seems to always come to the top.
• Not many shotmaking courses left on the PGA Tour.  Outside of Riviera can only name about a half dozen, from Pebble to PGA National to Hilton Head to Colonial.  So for most of the pros, hitting lots of greens and shaping the ball into the proper position is essential. So it only makes sense that players who hit lots of greens always do well at Riviera, right?  Of late, that stat has been important, in the last 26 years, nine winners have been in the top five for the week in greens hit, while eleven have been out of the top ten.  Last year Joaquin Niemann was T-14th in Greens in Regulation.   Bill Haas was the worst in 2012; he was ranked T-58th, hitting only 36 of 72 greens, in 2011 Aaron Baddeley was 3rd, while in 2010, Steve Stricker was T10th while in 2009, Phil Mickelson was T9th in greens hit at Riviera.  In 2013 John Merrick ranked T23rd hitting 46 of 72 greens; in 2014, Bubba Watson ranked T3rd hitting 51 of 72 greens; in 2015, James Hahn hit 40 of 72, which ranked T-28th. In 2016 Bubba hit 51 of 72 greens, ranking T-7th, while Dustin Johnson in 2017 led the stat by hitting 56 of the 72 greens.  In 2018 Bubba won, hitting 46 of 72 greens and ranked T-7th; in 2019, J.B. Holmes hit 52 of 72 greens and was ranked T2nd.  In 2020 Adam Scott became the 3rd player in the last 24 years to lead the greens hit category, hitting 52 of 72 greens.  In 2021 Max Homa did great, finishing T-5th hitting 45 of 72 greens.
• Putting has become more important in the last couple of years.  You have to make a lot of putts, especially in the under ten feet range to do well.  In 2012 Bill Haas had the least amount of putts with 103, while in 2010, Steve Stricker had the least amount of putts with just 104.  In 2014 Bubba Watson ranked T15th taking just 108 putts, while James Hahn took 107 putts and ranked T-10th in 2015.  Bubba Watson took 113 putts in 2016, which ranked T-25th, while in 2017, Dustin Johnson took 114 putts which ranked T-48th.  In 2018 Bubba Watson had 108 putts which ranked T-16th; in 2019, J.B. Holmes had 111 putts which ranked T-11th.  In 2020 Adam Scott had 114 putts, ranking T-43rd, while Max Homa was T-10th in taking 106 putts.  Last year Joaquin Niemann only had 104 putts and was T-1st.
• Players who are good scramblers do well at Riviera, especially those who can play the delicate shots around the green from the Kikuyu grass.  In 2011 Aaron Baddeley led the scrambling stat for the week, getting it up and down 18 of 20 times.

So how have the past winners done scrambling in their winning year?  Ten of the 18 winners since 2002 have been in the top 10.

• In 2022 Joaquin Niemann was 10th, getting it up and down 19 of 25 tries (77.0%)
• In 2021 Max Homa was T-24th, getting it up and down 18 of 27 tries (66.67%)
• In 2020 Adam Scott was 17th, getting it up and down 12 of 20 tries (60.00%)
• In 2019 J.B. Holmes was 17th, getting it up and down 14 of 20 tries (70.00%)
• In 2018 Bubba Watson was T-20th (worst winner performance since 2008), getting it up and down 18 of 26 tries (69.23%)
• In 2017 Dustin Johnson was T-5th, getting it up and down 13 of 16 tries (81.25%)
• In 2016 Bubba Watson was 4th, getting it up and down 16 of 21 tries (76.19%)
• In 2015 James Hahn was 13th, getting it up and down 22 out of 32 tries (68.75%).
• In 2014 Bubba Watson was T16th, getting it up and down 15 out of 21 tries (71.43%).
• In 2013 John Merrick was 19th, getting it up and down 17 out of 26 tries (65.38%).
• In 2012 Bill Haas was 7th, getting it up and down 26 out of 36 tries (72.22%).
• In 2011 Aaron Baddeley was 1st, getting it up and down 18 out of 20 tries (90.00%).
• In 2010 Steve Stricker was T8th, getting it up and down 19 out of 24 tries (79.17%).
• In 2009 Phil Mickelson was T29th, getting it up and down 14 out of 21 tries (66.67%).
• In 2008 Phil Mickelson was 4th, getting it up and down 20 out of 26 tries (76.92%).
• In 2007 Charles Howell III was T6th, getting it up and down 16 out of 21 tries (76.19%).
• In 2006 Rory Sabbatini was T62nd, getting it up and down 14 out of 24 tries (58.33%).
• In 2005 Adam Scott was T14th, getting it up and down 8 out of 10 tries (80.00%).
• In 2004 Mike Weir was T7th, getting it up and down 20 out of 26 tries (76.92%).
• In 2003 Mike Weir was 6th, getting it up and down 19 out of 26 tries.
• In 2002 Len Mattiace was T11th, getting it up and down 22 out of 28 tries (78.57%).
• In 2001 Robert Allenby was 69th, getting it up and down 11 out of 20 tries (55.00%).
• In 2000 Kirk Triplett was 71st (dead last), getting it up and down 5 out of 14 tries (38.46%).

Last but not least, the weather will be perfect all week, with sunny skies and temperatures each day in the low-60s.  Winds will blow off the ocean at 10 mph