Honda Classic Key Fantasy Stats

Honda Classic

February 23rd – 26th, 2023

PGA National Champion Course

Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,125

Purse: $8.4 million

with $1,512.000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Sepp Straka

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for PGA National Champion Course, data from last year’s Honda Classic, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at PGA National last year was 71.34, making it the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022. The previous year’s scoring average was 71.10, making it the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021. The year before, it played to a 71.90, making it the 3rd hardest course to score on in 2020. The course has ranked 7th toughest or lower in the last five years. Since joining the tour in 2007, the course has never played under par, and the easiest it ever played was in 2014, when it played to a scoring average of 70.41 and was the 17th hardest course for the year.

This has been the norm for this course since it was first held in 2007. It’s been one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour and has been in the top-ten hardest course list every year except for 2012, when it was the 11th hardest at 71.19, and in 2014, when it was the 17th hardest with a 70.41 scoring average. In 2019 it was the 5th hardest course, with a 71.02 average. In 2018, it was the 2nd hardest course on tour, with a 72.30 scoring average. One of the reasons the course plays so hard is the wind. Last year the winds were terrible on Thursday, with winds at 18 mph with gusts up to 22 mph. For the rest of the event, Friday through Sunday, the winds blew between 10 to 16 mph. This is always the number one reason scoring is so tough at the Honda. In 2018 it blew up to 25 mph each day, which played havoc for the players and protected the course to low scores. This year the winds will be very manageable as Thursday will be 13 mph, but it will only blow at 9 mph for Friday through Sunday. With the long-range forecast not showing rain, the course will play bone dry and again, complex and fast, even with manageable winds.

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year, Greens hit, Rough Proximity to hole, and Scambling are essential. Last year, the course ranked 20th in greens in regulation. Winner Sepp Straka was T-1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 55 of 72 greens. In looking at the stats for PGA National in 2021, the course ranked 16th in greens in regulation. Winner Matt Jones was T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens. In 2020 Sungjae Im was T-2nd in greens hit. Now hitting fairways isn’t that important. The course ranked 25th last year as Straka hit 47 of 56 and ranked 1st (Straka was 13th in driving distance and was 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). In 2021 PGA National ranked 18th in Fairway Accuracy as Jones hit 36 of 56 to rank T-15th (Jones was T-24th in driving distance and was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). The previous year in 2020, it ranked 21st while Im was T-10th in fairways hit (Im was 40th in driving distance and was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). But the importance comes when you miss the fairways, the course has very tough Bermuda rough with perennial ryegrass making it very hard to get out of trouble. Last year the course ranked T-21st in getting it close to the hole from the rough, as Straka was 9th in Rough Proximity. In 2021 PGA National was 24th in getting it close to the hole from the rough, while Jones was 44th. The previous year the course was 7th in getting it close to the hole from the rough, while champion Im had a tough time ranking 64th.
Our third stat is scrambling, last year PGA National was 10th on the tour in getting it up and down, while winner Straka was 3rd in scrambling and 31st in Strokes Gained Around the Green. in 2021 the course was the 7th hardest course on tour in getting it up and down, while Jones was 17th in scrambling but 2nd in Strokes Gained Around the Green. In the previous year, PGA National was 3rd hardest on tour while Im shined on this stat as he was T-5th in scrambling and 5th in Strokes Gained Around the Green.
Last we picked Par Breakers because it was hard to make a lot of birdies and eagles in the past. Last year PGA National had 1,262 birdies and 15 eagles, so it ranked 6th in Par Breakers at 16.35. Champion Straka made 18 birdies and no eagles and ranked T-3rd in Par Breakers. In 2021 PGA National had 1,345 birdies and 51 eagles for the week and averaged 18.42, making it the 13th hardest on tour in Par Breaker. Champion Jones made 20 birdies and one eagle and was T-1st in Par Breakers. The previous year saw PGA National yield 1,172 birdies and 25 eagles for the week, averaging 15.65, the 3rd hardest on tour. As for Im in 2020, he was T-1st in par breakers making 19 birdies for the week. So in looking at why Sepp Straka, Matt Jones, and Sungjae Im won, they both hit lots of greens, did very well getting it up and down on the greens they missed, and were tops in making birdies and eagles. Unsurprisingly, the champions were 1st in Strokes Gained Total of all the categories.
One of the sad elements of this tournament is the weakness of the field, it has the worst turnout since the tour restarted at Kapalua in January. The highest rank played in the field is #18, Sungjae Im, with only three top-20 players and 8 top-50 players. It’s a bit embarrassing when the tournament can’t even get players who live near it, like Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Rickie Fowler. Still, this time slot is very competitive when you think that Phoenix and Genesis were designated events last week, and next week and the week after the Palmer and the Players were also designated events. Something has to give, they can’t play in all of them, and since the Honda is stuck in the middle, they get the short stick on marquee players.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats for players to do well at PGA National:

*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 6,400 square feet, normally, they would be easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is important. Last year on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 20th hardest greens to hit, in 2021, they were the 16th hardest to hit, while in 2020 it was the 4th hardest to hit. In 2019 it was the 7th hardest to hit, in 2018 it was the 4th hardest to hit, while in 2017, they were the 15th hardest and in 2016, they were the 12th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National, in 2015 it ranked 6th, in 2014 it ranked 18th, in 2013 5th, in 2012 11th, and 6th in 2011. So a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Rough Proximity: How close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee, last year PGA National finished T-21st, while in 2021, it was the 24th hardest course on the PGA Tour while in 2020, it ranked 7th. In 2019 it was 6th hardest, and in 2018 it was 9th. In 2017 it was 8th, and in 2016 it was 3rd in this stat.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happen, so it’s important to salvage par. Last year PGA National ranked 10th hardest on tour, while it was 7th in 2021 and 3rd in 2020. In 2019 it ranked 20th, while in 2018, it was the 8th hardest. In 2017 it was the 15th hardest, while in 2016, it was the 5th hardest in scrambling while in 2015, it was the 7th hardest, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that can make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 6th last year, 13th in 2021, and 3rd the year before. In 2019 it ranked 5th, and 2nd in 2018. In 2017 it ranked 18th and 5th in this stat on tour in 2016.

122 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.