BlogHonda Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Before tackling the Honda Classic, we must focus on what is happening in golf.  With the advent of LIV Golf, which is opening up its season this week in Mayakoba, the PGA Tour has made several changes.  The big one is making certain events designated in which the top players must play.  Already three have been played at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, WM Phoenix Open, and last week at the Genesis Invitational.  Unfortunately, the Honda Classic isn’t one this year, and thus with two more designated events next week at the Palmer and the week after at the Players, we see the bad side of this new rule.  The Honda Classic, which used to be a can’t-miss event on the PGA Tour, is now the week for marquee players not attending.  So that is why this event has a very weak field of only eight top-50-ranked players.  On top of this, Honda, which was the longest sponsor on the PGA Tour, is leaving this year after being the sponsor since 1982.  Getting iconic sponsors like Honda is hard to get and we only hope another company can be found so that this event will be played again in 2024.  Events in January, February, and March are trendy, and it would be a shame to see this fabulous venue, PGA National, not hold many more events in the future.  At the same time, we have seen many great courses lose PGA Tour events like Doral, just down the road in Miami, Firestone in Akron, La Costa outside of San Diego, and Westchester C.C. outside of New York.

It’s easy to say it’s the players’ fault, and they should be better at supporting a local event.  Probably a dozen top players live within 20 miles of PGA National, like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Tiger Woods. But when you see locals like Rickie Fowler not playing along with past winners that love to play in Florida, like Keith Mitchell, Adam Scott, and Russell Henley, you know there is a problem.

When the PGA Tour developed “designated events,” they said that just about every event had a chance to become one, and maybe this event, with a new sponsor, will become one.  We know that two events are looking for a spot in either March or April, the Cadence Bank Houston Open, and we found out last week that the Tour has an agreement for a new event in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Along with this event, the  WGC-Dell Match Play looks to be gone after this year, along with the Mexico Open at Vidanta.  For years the tour has seen sponsors and events come and go, but for years the tour has had a full schedule, usually having each week of the year from January through December full.

West Coast swing was a big success

The last seven weeks have been great drama and a lot of excitement.  Last year with players like Luke List, Hudson Swafford, Tom Hoge, and Joaquin Niemann winning, it was a breath of fresh air to see some top names like Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, and Max Homa win.  Even Si Woo Kim, who isn’t a player that most fans relate to, has won the Players Championship, so all of the winners on the west coast are players who have won before.  Will all of this momentum continue?  Wouldn’t bet against it, even with LIV Golf trying to make inroads, I see the PGA Tour product as even better than it has ever been.  Even with the loss of players like Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith, most other players haven’t been missed.  So with LIV Golf starting this week, we should know in the next six months if LIV golf can survive as the PGA Tour seems to be more solid and not losing any of its fan base.

Things you need to know about the Honda Classic

This will be the 51st Honda Classic.  The tournament got started in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic and was played at Inverrary Golf & C.C. in Lauderhill, Florida.  A bit strange, and nobody will bother to care, but Jackie Gleason would have been 106 years old last month.  Most of the players don’t even know who he was and how great the old Honeymooner shows were. Maybe I am old and remember him, he was a hilarious guy and loved golf.  In 1981 Jackie Gleason was dropped from the tournament, and the following year Honda came aboard as the tournament sponsor, today they are the longest-running sponsor on the PGA Tour. After playing at several courses for 15 years, the tournament switched courses again in 2007. This time to the Champion Course at PGA National, the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship site.  It became an instant success and upgraded the tournament with more marquee and higher-ranked players attending. In 1976 the Players Championship, which back then moved around to different courses, chose Inverrary Golf & C.C., and the Inverrary Classic wasn’t played that year.  The event is the first event in the Florida swing.

Course information:

• PGA National (Champion Course)
• Palm Beach Gardens, Fl.
• 7,125 yards     Par 35-35–70
• The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 147 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and open to those staying there.  It also sells local memberships.
• Originally designed by George and Tom Fazio in 1981, Jack Nicklaus redesigned the course in 1990, adding the feared “Bear Trap” holes 15, 16, and 17. PGA National has a lot of experience holding golf tournaments, the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship, and 18 Senior PGA Championships have been held on the course.  Since 2007 it’s been the home of the Honda Classic.  PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand. Look for scores to be a bit high, especially if the wind blows.  The course has 78 bunkers and 26 water hazards of which 13 holes have water in play for the professionals.  The last four holes create a lot of drama in which water on par three 15th, and 17th holes have broken many dreams of winning.  The 18th hole also makes a lot of drama; it’s a long par five that is nearly impossible to hit in two, but it’s a true par 5.
• Accuracy is going to play the key over distance.  The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways surrounded by water and sand along the fairways but in the middle of several of the fairways. Hitting greens is very important. Since moving to PGA National in 2007, 9 of the 16 winners and 14 of the 23 runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top ten in greens hit.  Last year’s winner Sepp Straka hit 55 of 72 greens and was ranked T-1st.  The year before Matt Jones hit 52 of the 72 greens and ranked T-5th, the previous winner Sungjae Im ranked T-2nd in greens hit.
• The par 3s are some of the toughest on tour. Last year and in 2021, they ranked 3rd hardest on tour, but winner Matt Jones played them in one under, while last year Sepp Straka played them in one over.  The previous year in 2020, the par 3s ranked 2nd hardest as Sungjae Im playing them in just one under.  The year before in 2019, Keith Mitchell played them in four under, and 2018 winner Justin Thomas was two under on the par 3s.  In the last seven years, the par 3s at PGA National haven’t been worst than the sixth hardest on tour.  So you can see, the par 3s are key in winning.
• One last item that has to be discussed is the “Bear Trap,” holes 15, 16, and 17.  These three holes, surrounded by water and danger, are among the most challenging stretches on the PGA Tour.  Thanks to Shotlink stats, we can see that since 2007 there have been 6,914 total rounds played in the Honda Classic.  Throughout those rounds, the field is 4,374 over par as 1,686 balls have found water in the three-hole stretch.  Even more impressive, of the 582 players that have played in the Honda Classic since 2007, 537 of 612 players (87.8%) are over par on the Bear Trap in their respective careers.  That shows how challenging these holes are.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the PGA National:

This is based on the most important stats for PGA National Champion Course, data from last year’s Honda Classic, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at PGA National last year was 71.34, making it the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022. The previous year’s scoring average was 71.10, making it the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021. The year before, it played to a 71.90, making it the 3rd hardest course to score on in 2020. The course has ranked 7th toughest or lower in the last five years. Since joining the tour in 2007, the course has never played under par, and the easiest it ever played was in 2014, when it played to a scoring average of 70.41 and was the 17th hardest course for the year.

This has been the norm for this course since it was first held in 2007. It’s been one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour and has been in the top-ten hardest course list every year except for 2012, when it was the 11th hardest at 71.19, and in 2014, when it was the 17th hardest with a 70.41 scoring average. In 2019 it was the 5th hardest course, with a 71.02 average. In 2018, it was the 2nd hardest course on tour, with a 72.30 scoring average. One of the reasons the course plays so hard is the wind. Last year the winds were terrible on Thursday, with winds at 18 mph with gusts up to 22 mph. For the rest of the event, Friday through Sunday, the winds blew between 10 to 16 mph. This is always the number one reason scoring is so tough at the Honda. In 2018 it blew up to 25 mph each day, which played havoc for the players and protected the course to low scores. This year the winds will be very manageable as Thursday will be 13 mph, but it will only blow at 9 mph for Friday through Sunday. With the long-range forecast not showing rain, the course will play bone dry and again, complex and fast, even with manageable winds.

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year, Greens hit, Rough Proximity to hole, and Scambling are essential. Last year, the course ranked 20th in greens in regulation. Winner Sepp Straka was T-1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 55 of 72 greens. In looking at the stats for PGA National in 2021, the course ranked 16th in greens in regulation. Winner Matt Jones was T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens. In 2020 Sungjae Im was T-2nd in greens hit. Now hitting fairways isn’t that important. The course ranked 25th last year as Straka hit 47 of 56 and ranked 1st (Straka was 13th in driving distance and was 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). In 2021 PGA National ranked 18th in Fairway Accuracy as Jones hit 36 of 56 to rank T-15th (Jones was T-24th in driving distance and was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). The previous year in 2020, it ranked 21st while Im was T-10th in fairways hit (Im was 40th in driving distance and was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). But the importance comes when you miss the fairways, the course has very tough Bermuda rough with perennial ryegrass making it very hard to get out of trouble. Last year the course ranked T-21st in getting it close to the hole from the rough, as Straka was 9th in Rough Proximity. In 2021 PGA National was 24th in getting it close to the hole from the rough, while Jones was 44th. The previous year the course was 7th in getting it close to the hole from the rough, while champion Im had a tough time ranking 64th.
Our third stat is scrambling, last year PGA National was 10th on the tour in getting it up and down, while winner Straka was 3rd in scrambling and 31st in Strokes Gained Around the Green. in 2021 the course was the 7th hardest course on tour in getting it up and down, while Jones was 17th in scrambling but 2nd in Strokes Gained Around the Green. In the previous year, PGA National was 3rd hardest on tour while Im shined on this stat as he was T-5th in scrambling and 5th in Strokes Gained Around the Green.
Last we picked Par Breakers because it was hard to make a lot of birdies and eagles in the past. Last year PGA National had 1,262 birdies and 15 eagles, so it ranked 6th in Par Breakers at 16.35. Champion Straka made 18 birdies and no eagles and ranked T-3rd in Par Breakers. In 2021 PGA National had 1,345 birdies and 51 eagles for the week and averaged 18.42, making it the 13th hardest on tour in Par Breaker. Champion Jones made 20 birdies and one eagle and was T-1st in Par Breakers. The previous year saw PGA National yield 1,172 birdies and 25 eagles for the week, averaging 15.65, the 3rd hardest on tour. As for Im in 2020, he was T-1st in par breakers making 19 birdies for the week. So in looking at why Sepp Straka, Matt Jones, and Sungjae Im won, they both hit lots of greens, did very well getting it up and down on the greens they missed, and were tops in making birdies and eagles. Unsurprisingly, the champions were 1st in Strokes Gained Total of all the categories.
One of the sad elements of this tournament is the weakness of the field, it has the worst turnout since the tour restarted at Kapalua in January. The highest rank played in the field is #18, Sungjae Im, with only three top-20 players and 8 top-50 players. It’s a bit embarrassing when the tournament can’t even get players who live near it, like Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Rickie Fowler. Still, this time slot is very competitive when you think that Phoenix and Genesis have designated events last week, and next week and the week after the Palmer and the Players were also designated events. Something has to give, they can’t play in all of them, and since the Honda is stuck in the middle, they get the short stick on marquee players.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FOR PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT PGA NATIONAL:

*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 6,400 square feet, normally, they would be easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is important. Last year on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 20th hardest greens to hit, in 2021, they were the 16th hardest to hit, while in 2020, it was the 4th hardest to hit. In 2019 it was the 7th hardest to hit, in 2018 it was the 4th hardest to hit, while in 2017, they were the 15th hardest and in 2016, they were the 12th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National, in 2015 it ranked 6th, in 2014 it ranked 18th, in 2013 5th, in 2012 11th, and 6th in 2011. So a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Rough Proximity: How close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee, last year PGA National finished T-21st, while in 2021, it was the 24th hardest course on the PGA Tour while in 2020, it ranked 7th. In 2019 it was 6th hardest, and in 2018 it was 9th. In 2017 it was 8th, and in 2016 it was 3rd in this stat.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happen, so it’s important to salvage par. Last year PGA National ranked 10th hardest on tour, while it was 7th in 2021 and 3rd in 2020. In 2019 it ranked 20th, while in 2018, it was the 8th hardest. In 2017 it was the 15th hardest, while in 2016, it was the 5th hardest in scrambling while in 2015, it was the 7th hardest, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that can make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 6th last year, 13th in 2021, and 3rd the year before. In 2019 it ranked 5th, and 2nd in 2018. In 2017 it ranked 18th and 5th in this stat on tour in 2016.

122 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all player stats

Historical totals

Of the 144 in the field, 105 have played at least once in the Honda.  Here are the players with the most under-par totals at Honda since 2010:

• Sepp Straka is 5 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Sungjae Im is 5 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Byeong Hun An is 4 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Matthias Schwab is 3 under in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Lee Hodges is 2 under in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Alex Noren is even par in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Cameron Davis is 1 over in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Adam Svensson is 1 over in 8 rounds playing 2 years
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 1 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Matt Kuchar is 1 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Taylor Pendrith is 1 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Will Gordon is 1 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Andrew Kozan is 2 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Callum Tarren is 2 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Dylan Wu is 2 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Davis Riley is 3 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Anders Albertson is 4 over in 2 rounds playing 1 year
• Webb Simpson is 5 over in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Danny Willett is 5 over in 6 rounds playing 2 years
• Curtis Thompson is 5 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Sam Stevens is 5 over in 4 rounds playing 1 year
• Shane Lowry is 6 over in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Matt Wallace is 6 over in 8 rounds playing 3 years
• Robby Shelton is 6 over in 6 rounds playing 2 years
• Austin Smotherman is 6 over in 2 rounds playing 1 year

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Sepp Straka is 5 under, playing 4 years (-1.3)
• Sungjae Im is 5 under, playing 4 years (-1.3)
• Byeong Hun An is 4 under, playing 4 years (-1.0)
• Alex Noren is even par, playing 4 years (0.0)
• Cameron Davis is 1 over, playing 3 years (0.3)
• Adam Svensson is 1 over, playing 2 years (0.5)
• Shane Lowry is 6 over, playing 5 years (1.2)
• Webb Simpson is 5 over, playing 4 years (1.3)
• Luke Donald is 12 over, playing 9 years (1.3)
• Harris English is 10 over, playing 7 years (1.4)
• Aaron Wise is 7 over, playing 4 years (1.8)
• Russell Knox is 17 over, playing 9 years (1.9)
• Matt Wallace is 6 over, playing 3 years (2.0)
• Ryan Palmer is 22 over, playing 11 years (2.0)
• J.T. Poston is 12 over, playing 5 years (2.4)
• Jonas Blixt is 12 over, playing 5 years (2.4)
• Danny Willett is 5 over, playing 2 years (2.5)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Genesis, a total of 55 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

With the field the way it is, and the course playing tough, one of the biggest items you should consider is picking six guys to make the cut.  This will be the hardest event so far in 2023 to pick players participating in four rounds.  So make extra sure about your picks and remember the tour is now in Florida, and players that have done poorly out west may suddenly find their games on Bermuda greens, heat, humidity, and wind.

So remember, we are looking for off-the-wall players who may not have played well since the tour was in Florida last year.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Sungjae Im – $10,700
• Shane Lowry – $10,400
• Chris Kirk – $9,900
• Billy Horschel – $9,700
• Alex Noren – $9,500
• Min Woo Lee – $9,400
• Matt Kuchar – $9,300
• Aaron Wise – $,200
• Denny McCarthy – $9,100
• Thomas Detry – $9,000

We are now in a tournament where nobody has dominated on a course that is hard to dominate.    Remember this, in past years, this course has played tough due to the wind.  Forecasts predict rough conditions on Thursday.  But after that, the winds will be very manageable, so look for scores lower than in past years. But again, try your hardest to pick six guys to make the cut.  Off the bat, our top pick is the 2020 champion Sungjae Im at $10.700.  Last year he also was the favorite and missed the cut.  He was the favorite in 2021 and wasn’t playing well, but he finished T-8th.  This year is different. He is playing well in his last three starts were T-4th at the Farmers, T-6th at the Phoenix, and T-56th at Genesis.  Does that mean you fork over $10,70?  I won’t and advise you not to overpay for him, but you should know that he averages 75.8 DraftKings points per event, which is the second-best of those in the field.   Have to wonder how DraftKings prices Shane Lowry at $10,400?  Yes, he was runner-up last year, his only top-ten finish in five Honda starts.  Now he did win the BMW PGA Championship in September, but since then, in eight events only made five cuts, and his best finish was T-14th in last week’s Genesis.  In his record on Florida courses, he was good last year and finished 8th at the Players in 2021.  Also, Lowry is high in DraftKings points per event with 71.7.  So he is a toss-up for me. Yes, a good player, but hasn’t done much lately.  Now Chris Kirk at $9,900 I can see taking, he was 3rd at both the Sony Open and American Express.  He missed the cut at Phoenix, but he does play great in Florida and averages 64.9 DraftKings points per event.  Billy Horschel at $9,700, is someone to think of, yes he plays well in Florida and doesn’t play well on the West Coast swing.  He averages 68.7 DraftKings points per event, but one thing to wonder about, he is working on his swing and, since winning at Memorial in May, has only two top-20 finishes, the best being a T-7th at the CJ Cup on a course like those in Florida.  Alex Noren at $9,500 is too high a price.  Last week at Genesis, he was priced at $7,300, which was more manageable.  He has missed his last two cuts, and even though he was T-5th at Abu Dhabi can’t see paying so much for him.  Min Woo Lee at $9,400, is a player that most betters aren’t familiar with.  He was terrible on the PGA Tour last year, but since October has been on a tear on the European Tour.  He has been a runner-up in his last eight starts, has three third-place finishes, and hasn’t been worse than T-13th.  He has struggled in his 16 PGA Tour starts missing ten of 16 cuts.  But we have to keep in the back of our minds he has been successful of late in Europe, so maybe the good play will continue.  Matt Kuchar at $9,300 is priced way too much, but he has two things going for him.  With Justin Rose winning at Pebble, it gives players like Kuchar the thought that they could also win in their 40s.  Kuchar won at the Honda, but that was 21 years ago on another course.  He played three times at PGA National, and in his last start in 2011 was his best, T-17th.  One thing working for use is that Kuchar makes many cuts, but can we justify it with his $9,300 price tag?  He was T-7th at the Sony and 8th at the Genesis, so he is a toss-up.  Aaron Wise at $9,200 is an easy no for me, he isn’t playing well and has never shined at PGA National, so save him for April and May when he plays better.  Denny McCarthy at $9,100 for many, could be the highest price player to choose.  He was T-3rd at the Honda in 2021 and T-30th last year.  He had some great final rounds on the west coast swing, getting him a T-4th at Pebble and T-14th at Genesis.  He is one of those players who knock on the door and could be good this week with his great putting.  Thomas Detry at $9,000 is priced high for a player who never has played in the Honda.  But I have taken him the last few weeks, and he has performed brilliantly and has a lot of DraftKings points.  Still, the price tag is high for a guy that you can usually get for under $8,000.  I will pick him this week because at Bermuda because he was priced at $10,500, came through with 122.5 points, and finished 2nd.  Think he will shine this week.

Here is our new feature: we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look at the 2010 Honda Classics onward, who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Honda Classics starts:

• Shane Lowry made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Ben Martin made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Cameron Davis made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Jason Dufner made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Jhonattan Vegas made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Ryan Palmer made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• J.T. Poston made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Jimmy Walker made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• William McGirt made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,700.
• Aaron Wise made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Sepp Straka made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.
• Byeong Hun An made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Webb Simpson made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Austin Cook made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Alex Noren made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,500.
• Ben Crane made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Harris English made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Taylor Pendrith at $8,900, is painfully priced high, but he makes a lot of cuts and averages 70.0 DraftKings points.  In his last two starts was T-7th at Pebble and T-57th at Phoenix.  In three starts in Florida has made all three cuts. He is a tossup for me.  Adam Svensson at $8,700, is another painful choice, he was T-9th at the Honda last year, won at the RSM, which is a course that plays like a Florida course, and was T-9th at Genesis.  He didn’t play great on the West Coast but is one of those that we like in Florida.  Sepp Straka at $8,500, is another to think of, he is the defending champion and seems to be well-suited for Florida courses.  Adrian Meronk at $8,300, is another to think about, has played great in Europe, won in Australia, was T-4th at the Ras Al Khaimah last month, and was T-45th at the Genesis.  Cam Davis at $8,100, has played terribly on the west coast, but the Australian has played well in Florida, including a T-8th at the Honda in 2020.  Ben Griffin at $7,900, is one of those great buys that nobody really knows about.  Yes, he missed the cut in his last start at Pebble but was on the wrong course in big winds, so we have to forget about that.  In his other events since finishing 4th at the Wyndham last year, he has shined and was T-3rd in Bermuda on a course that will play similar to PGA National.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Very few bargains.  Have a couple of guys worth the price, first Joseph Bramlett at $7,500.  He played well on the west coast, and think it will spill over to this week.  Ryan Palmer at $7,400, has played 15 times in the Honda with two top-tens and made 12 cuts; the price is right for a guy that should make the cut.  Brandon Wu at $7,300, is another player who makes a lot of cuts and has played well on Florida courses.  He was T-2nd at Pebble, T-50th at Phoenix, and missed the cut at Genesis.  Russell Knox, at $7,200, makes cuts and plays well in Florida and in the wind.  Hard to believe that Aaron Baddeley, who is $7,000, has never played at PGA National.  Have played some good golf of late, and he is a good bet to make the cut.  Akshay Bhatia at $6,800, is a guy that plays well on Bermuda and in wind.  He won on the Korn Ferry Tour in the Bahamas, think this week will be good for him.  Jason Dufner at $6,700, is a player who has played in the Honda 14 times and only missed one cut (sorry, it was last year).  He has struggled in the last year but can make the cut this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Honda Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

At the Honda and PGA National, historically, all of the winners have some connection to playing well on Bermuda by either being born in Florida, South Africa, or Australia or have moved to the Southeast like last year’s champion Sepp Straka.  He was born in Vienna, Austria, and moved to all places in Valdosta, Georgia, at the age of 14.  So he grew up on Bermuda and played well in the wind.  You also have 2019 champion Keith Mitchell who lives in St. Simons Island, Georgia.  2018 winner Justin Thomas now lives just down the road from PGA National and with 2017 winner Rickie Fowler.  Even defending champion Sungjae Im bought a house in Atlanta and liked to stay a lot with relatives in the Tampa Bay area. There is also a connection with those like past champions Ernie Els, Camilo Villegas, Padraig Harrington, and Rory McIlroy, who have homes in Jupiter, Florida.  Even Adam Scott has a home in the Bahamas with the same conditions as Florida courses. Even guys like 2007 winner Mark Wilson, who was born in Wisconsin and lived in Illinois, have a connection.  He went to school in North Carolina, so you can see why his five PGA Tour have been on Bermuda courses in Florida, Mexico, Hawaii, Phoenix, and Palm Springs.  2004 winner Russell Henley grew up in Macon, Georgia, and lives on Kiawah Island, which could understand why his two PGA Tour and three Korn Ferry tour wins are on courses with Bermuda grass.  So look for players with that Bermuda connections.  Even 2021 champion Matt Jones, despite living in Scottsdale, Arizona, was born and raised in Australia and learned to play on Bermuda and wind.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Unbelievable and bizarre stat:
• PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand. Look for scores to be a bit high, especially when the wind blows.  This will be the first time players see Bermuda fairways, rough, and greens on the year that haven’t been overseeded with rye, so it will take some getting used to.
• Accuracy is going to play the key over distance.  The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways that are surrounded by water and sand not only along the fairways but in the middle of several of the fairways. Hitting greens is very important. Since moving to PGA National in 2007, 10 of the 16 winners and 14 of the 23 runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top ten in greens hit.s
• Very tough par 4s at PGA National, Mark Wilson, was 4 under in ’07, Ernie Els was 2 under in ’08, Y.E. Yang was 6 under in ’09, while Camilo Villegas was 9 under par in ’10. Keeping the trend going was Rory Sabbatini in 2011, playing them in 7 under, but showing that they are tough was Rory McIlroy, who was only 3 under in 2012, Michael Thompson, who was only 2 under on them in 2013, and Russell Henley who was 6 under in 2014.  In 2015 Padraig Harrington played them in 5 under, while Adam Scott was 4 under in 2016.  In 2017 Rickie Fowler was 5 under on the par 4s, while 2018 winner Justin Thomas was 1 under.  In 2019 Keith Mitchell proved how tough the par 4s played as he was even par for the week, and 2020 champion Sungjae Im was one over par on the par 4s.  In 2021 Matt Jones played the par 4s in five under. Sepp Straka did the same 5 under in his 2022 win.
• Good putting and scrambling.  The massive greens have many contours, so the winner will be a perfect lag putter.
• Interesting to note that 11 of the last 19 winners of the Honda are those that are either born Floridians or now live in Florida (unfortunately, defending champion Sepp Straka and 2019 winner Keith Mitchell don’t qualify even though Mitchell’s St. Simon’s Island home is in Georgia next to the Florida border and Straka also lives in Georgia).  A perfect example is 2006 champion Luke Donald.  Even though he was born in Great Britain and spent most of his time in Chicago, he had a house just a few miles away.  Look for that kind of connection in the winner.  We don’t count 2013 winner Michael Thompson on our list, but he lives in Birmingham, Alabama, so he always has to deal with Bermuda when he is home.  The same with 2014 winner Russell Henley who lives in Kiawah Island, South Carolina, and again with a Bermuda connection.  Now we can’t consider Padraig Harrington as a “Floridan” even though he has had a place in Florida and has spent time there, while Adam Scott grew up playing not only on Bermuda grass but also playing in winds that will be around this week.  Oh, and 2018 winner Justin Thomas and 2017 winner Rickie Fowler live just up the road in Jupiter and play into the scenario of picking a player with local roots.
• Good bunker player since there are a lot of strategically placed bunkers on the course.
• Look for those that play well in wind, look at 2015 & ’05 champion Padraig Harrington along with 2018 champion Justin Thomas and 2017 winner Rickie Fowler, 2016 winner Adam Scott and 2021 champion Matt Jones.  All are from areas with winds in Ireland, Kentucky, California, and Australia, so don’t think anybody is better qualified after learning to play golf in these areas.  It could be quite windy this time of year, and the course is susceptible to winds, so look for a good wind player.