Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Fantasy Stats

Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 2nd – 5th, 2023

Bay Hill Club

Orlando, FL

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,466

Purse: $20 million

with $3,600,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Scottie Scheffler

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 73.89, and was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The reason for the high average is due to winds up to 20 mph over the weekend. In 2021 the scoring average was 73.02, the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The previous year, Bay Hill’s scoring average of 74.11 which was the hardest course on the PGA Tour for 2020. The year before, it was the 9th hardest with a 72.38 average.
The course is very tough, with 103 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes. The rough and hard greens come down to the elements, and with wind, it makes the course a true brute. Last week at the Honda, we saw what nice weather and the lack of wind could bring, an easy course in which Chris Kirk shot 266, 14 under, and the lowest anyone has ever shot over 72 holes at PGA National. But this week will bring on totally different conditions with warm and windy conditions. Thursday will be only 10 mph, but on Friday, conditions will worsen as winds will blow at 20 mph in the afternoon. It’s best before you make your picks on Wednesday to check the tee times, you may want to select a player who plays late Thursday and early Friday and have a big advantage. We saw this at the Honda last week that those playing late Thursday or early Friday had a shot and a half-advantage. Saturday will be a bit better for the weekend with winds at 17 mph, and Sunday, things get better at 10 mph.

In looking at the stats for Bay Hill last year, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Proximity to Hole, and Rough Proximity are important. First, is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, last year Bay Hill ranked 16th hardest in Driving Accuracy and 2nd in Greens in Regulation. In 2021 Bay Hill was 13th hardest in fairways hit but 5th in greens hit. In 2020 Bay Hill was 10th hardest in fairways hit but 1st in greens hit. Last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler was T-55th in Driving Accuracy and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, totaling 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. 2021 winner Bryson DeChambeau was T-25th in Driving Accuracy, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, totaling 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2020 Tyrrell Hatton was T-33rd in fairways hit, T-9th in greens hit, and 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2019 Francesco Molinari was T-3rd in fairways hit, and T-6th in greens hit, and 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-te-Green. 2018 winner Rory McIlroy was T-48th in fairways hit, and T-45th in greens hit for an overall 7th ranking in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In Proximity to hole Bay Hill was T-3rd last year, 6th in 2021, and 2nd in 2020. For 2019 it was 3rd and 13th in 2018. Last year’s winner Scheffler was 10th in Proximity to hole, and in 2021 DeChambeau was T-54th. In 2020 Tyrrell Hatton was 10th, in 2019, Molinari was 18th, and McIlroy was 1st in 2018.
Now in Rough Proximity, Bay Hill ranked 1st last year, 4th in 2021, and 1st in 2020. For 2019 Bay Hill ranked 2nd and 3rd in 2018. Last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler was 10th in Rough Proximity, while DeChambeau was 35th in 2021, while in 2020, Hatton was 12th. For 2019 Molinari was 15th, and McIlroy was 32nd in 2018.
In our last critical category Putting inside Ten Feet, Bay Hill was 5th last year, 24th in 2021, and 15th in 2020. For 2019 it was 32nd and 25th in 2018. Scheffler ranked 17th last year in Strokes Gained Putting and 76th in Strokes Gained Putting, making only 61 of 75 putts. In 2021 DeChambeau ranked 21st in Strokes Gained putting and T-12th in Putting inside ten feet, making 64 of 69 tries. In 2020 Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, as he was 21st in Putting inside 10 feet, making 63 of 70 putts. Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting in 2019 and was 16th in Putting inside 10 feet making 60 of 65 putts. As for McIlory, he made his biggest gains in 2018 on the greens, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting as he was 2nd in Putting inside ten feet, making 59 of 61 putts.

In looking at the winners’ stats, the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. Just look at this chart of all the Bay Hill winners from 1997, and you can see they either putt lights out and hit the ball subpar, or they hit the ball great and don’t do as well on the greens:

One thing about the greens, they are some of the best on the PGA Tour, and with little undulations, lots of putts are made.
Last year Scheffler was 17th in Strokes Gained Putting and 27th in total putting. Scheffler’s Achilles heel in putting last year was 25 putts between five and nine feet and only made nine of them. In 2021, DeChambeau was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting and 20th in total putting. DeChambeau had 61 putts from six feet and in and made 58. In 2020, Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting and T-34th in total putting. In 2019, Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd in total Putting. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches; in the 56 putts he had of seven feet or under, he only missed one. In 2018 McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the true key to him winning. The same with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the true key for him winning. The same thing happened with the 2016 champion Jason Day. He was 6th in Storkes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one, so you can see that you can not hit the ball that great but win, but it’s easier if you can hit the ball great.

But remember this, the weather is always the barometer for good play at Bay Hill.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a good barometer on the overall play from drives to hitting into the greens. For years Bay Hill is always in the top-15, last year, it ranked T-3rd.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin with shots from the fairway, last year, it was 6th, with each shot ending up 40 feet, 11 inches from the hole.

*Rough Proximity: Average length that a player hits to the pin from out of the rough. Showing how hard the rough is at Bay Hill, it was the hardest course to get close to the hole from the rough in 2016, players were only able to average 51 feet, 2 inches on each shot from the rough. It was also ranked 1st in 2020, with the average ball ending up 54 feet, 4 inches from the hole. Last year it ranked 1st as players were only able to average 55 feet, 8 inches from the hole, so it’s important to drive it well and keep it out of the rough.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. In 2016 Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses ranked, while last year ranked 5th (32nd hardest) out of 36 courses, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

110 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.