BlogArnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Tour is back at Bay Hill, which was the pride and joy of Arnold Palmer. This will be the seventh time that this event has returned to Bay Hill without Palmer.  Despite the concern that marquee names wouldn’t attend the last few years, that isn’t the case, as it’s a designated event with a top prize of $3.6 million.  So just about anybody that is anybody is playing this week.  That is good because if the event isn’t a designated event next year, many will probably not go.

As we said last week, it’s not about the course, the money, the sponsor, or how the tournament is run. Again it’s all about the scheduling, and players can’t play week in and week out. We are in the middle of a great run, starting at the Phoenix three weeks ago, then the Genesis.  Things continue as a great field will be at the Players Championship and then the WGC-Match Play.  Unfortunately, the fields will be weak at the Valspar and the Valero Texas Open. Still, with the Masters six weeks away, we have a great stretch of golf, maybe too much.

One thing to think about, no matter how good the folks that are running the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you will never substitute Arnold Palmer, who had a critical role in this event. The tournament and course had been his pride and joy for close to four decades since he bought the course in 1976 and had the Florida Citrus Open transferred to Bay Hill in 1979. Not only did Palmer tinker with the course each year to make it fresh, but Palmer also used to contact and write letters to players asking them to play. You just had to play in the event when you get a letter from Palmer. Byron Nelson used to do that for his tournament, and no matter what you thought about the course, you wouldn’t say no to Palmer or Nelson. Down to the point that when players didn’t play, like Bubba Watson a couple of years ago, they would come over and meet with Palmer to explain their reason for being absent.

So, unfortunately, even though each week has a great event with powerful sponsors, some events won’t get all of the marquee names to play in. So it will be interesting to see how the Arnold Palmer Invitational will cope in the years to come. It’s evident that even with a purse of $20 million and a first-place check of $3.6 million, you just aren’t going to get everyone to play.

Talking about the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship

Are you ready for some match play? It happens in three weeks, and players have this week and next to qualify. After the Players Championship, those in the top-64 of the world rankings are in. This is supposed to be the last year of this event, and it will be interesting to see how far down they will have to go.  Right now, these LIV golfers are in the top-64 but won’t be playing: Cameron Smith (5), Joaquin Niemann (23), Abraham Ancer (27), Thomas Pieters (37), Talor Gooch (44), Mito Pereira (48), Harold Varner III (49), Dustin Johnson (54), Jason Kokrak (60), and Patrick Reed (63).  That’s ten, meaning anyone in the top 74 will get in.  Now Maverick McNealy is 67 and won’t play in either the Palmer or Players due to a shoulder strain.  He said over the weekend that he thinks he will be able to avoid surgery but will have to miss an extended time to rehab the shoulder, so he may be opening up another spot.  So the bubble man will be #74 Davis Riley, who is playing this week at the Palmer. #75 Christiaan Bezuidenhout is also at the Palmer.  #76 is Sadom Kaewkanjana, a LIV player who won’t get in. Same with #77, Daniel Berger, who has been out since the U.S. Open with a sprain to his lower back and is not close to coming back.#78 is Adrian Otaegui, who played several times on LIV Golf, so he won’t get in.  So the next three #79 Harris English, #80 Thomas Detry, and 81 Thriston Lawrence, are at the Palmer, and they could have a chance of getting into the Match Play.  Making the most significant climb up the ladder is Phoenix runner-up Nick Taylor. He started the year 257 in the rankings and now sits 71st, he probably will get in, but anything could happen in the next couple of weeks.  Also, Amex runner-up Davis Thompson started the year 174th on the list, sits at 62, and will play in the Match Play.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Arnold Palmer Invitational

According to the PGA Tour, this will be the 58th Arnold Palmer Invitational, which started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open.  But if you look around, there is no big splash. You can’t find anywhere in any of the material that the tournament puts out anything raving about its 58th anniversary.

There is a good reason for that.

If you asked Arnold Palmer, he only counted the years when the event moved to Bay Hill, so this would be the 45th time this tournament has been played. The event started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open, and it barely survived when Arnold Palmer and his associates took over in 1978.  They gave new life to the event by moving it to Bay Hill in 1979.  In the 44 years since it changed to the Bay Hill Club, the tournament has been elevated to a level that it’s considered one of the premier stops on tour, as voted by the players.

Some other things to consider from past winners of the Palmer:

• 16 of the last 16 champions made the cut the previous time they played in the Palmer.
• 25 of the 26 Palmer winners had at least one previous career PGA Tour or European Tour victory.  The only player to win with no victories before winning the Palmer was Matt Every in 2014.
• 25 of the last 27 champions had at least one other top-ten in that season
• 16 of the last 18 winners had a top-20 finish in another Palmer start and had played in at least three Arnold Palmers.

Course information:

• Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Orlando, Fl.
• 7,466 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 73.9 rating and a slope rating of 136 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay on the course and its members.
• The average green size at Bay Hill is 6,500 square feet, which is a little over the PGA Tour average.  The course has 103 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes.
• The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 73.89, and was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  The reason for the high average is high wins up to 20 mph over the weekend. In 2021 the field’s scoring average at Bay Hill was 73.02, and it was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  The previous year was 74.11 due to high winds all week.  It was the hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2020.  In 2019 the average was 72.38 as the course was ranked the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2018 the course played to a scoring average of 72.02, making it the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2017 Bay Hill was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 72.89 average.  In 2016 Bay Hill was the 28th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 71.48 average, which is half a shot under par.  Great weather was the reason for the low scores with the lack of wind; you can see how challenging the course has been over the years.
• In 2015 Bay Hill was the 36th hardest course, but in the previous years, when there was wind, in 2014, it was the 16th hardest course on Tour, playing to a 72.473 average, a half a shot over par when it was windy all week.  So you can see the difference between 2014 and 2015 just about a shot and a half.
• In 2013 the Bay Hill was the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 72.928 average playing .928 strokes over par.
• Dick Wilson and Joe Lee initially designed and built the course in 1960.
• It’s funny how Arnold Palmer got associated with it. In 1948, 73 years ago, Palmer was playing college golf at Wake Forest, and they made a trip down to Orlando to play against Rollins College.  According to Orlando Sentinel writer Mike Bianchi, Palmer loved the area and the beauty of what Orlando was.  Orlando back then was still 21 years before DisneyWorld and was not considered a big area. Still, Palmer loved it so much that he thought of transferring to Rollins College.  But he stayed at Wake Forest and ten years later became the top golfer in the world.  But Palmer still had Orlando in the back of his mind, and in 1965, those memories were rekindled.
• In the early 1960s, when Bay Hill opened, Palmer and Jack Nicklaus played an exhibition tournament at the course, and the King was so attracted to Bay Hill that he got together a group of investors and leased the club with an option to buy it.  In January of 1976, the group purchased the course, and since then until his death, Palmer would spend most of the winter in a condo behind Bay Hill.  Palmer loved to tinker with the course. Since Palmer left the Champions tour and had more time on his hands around 2000, he spent lots of time making changes, probably the biggest coming in 2007 when he took the par 5, 4th and 16th holes and converted them into par 4s, thus reducing the par of the course to 70.  That didn’t last long as Palmer changed his mind again in 2010 and changed the par back on the 4th and 16 holes as the course went back to a par 72.
• Until about nine years ago, when he started slowing down, Palmer would always tinker with something on the course, making small changes here and there, but there haven’t been any changes in seven years now.  Despite the club not tinkering with the course anymore, there is always one thing that is consistent each year, and that is rough, which is very high and difficult to get out of and helps bring scores up each year.  We can see a bit of a trend, scores were high with the winners between 2012 and 2014 at 13 under par, but in the two years Matt Every won, he was 13 under in 2014 and 19 under in 2015.  In 2016 Jason Day was 17 under par.
• Bay Hill received a facelift before the 2016 event as all the greens on the course were re-grassed with Emerald Bermuda, making the greens roll more accurately and faster.  The fairways and tees were also re-grassed with Celebration bermudagrass.  One last change was when they closely mowed areas around the green, which meant chipping and scrambling were more laborious than in past years. The scores hovered right around that 15 under total, until severe weather brought the winning score down to 4 under in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton.  In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau won with an 11 under figure; last year, Scottie Scheffler won at 5 under.  But with lots of wind, it’s guaranteed that the winning score will be around that 5 under figure, like  Scheffler last year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Bay Hill:

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 73.89, and was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The reason for the high average is due to winds up to 20 mph over the weekend. In 2021 the scoring average was 73.02, the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The previous year, Bay Hill’s scoring average of 74.11 which was the hardest course on the PGA Tour for 2020. The year before, it was the 9th hardest with a 72.38 average.
The course is very tough, with 103 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes. The rough and hard greens come down to the elements, and with wind, it makes the course a true brute. Last week at the Honda, we saw what nice weather and the lack of wind could bring, an easy course in which Chris Kirk shot 266, 14 under, and the lowest anyone has ever shot over 72 holes at PGA National. But this week will bring on totally different conditions with warm and windy conditions. Thursday will be only 10 mph, but on Friday, conditions will worsen as winds will blow at 20 mph in the afternoon. It’s best before you make your picks on Wednesday to check the tee times, you may want to select a player who plays late Thursday and early Friday and have a big advantage. We saw this at the Honda last week that those playing late Thursday or early Friday had a shot and a half-advantage. Saturday will be a bit better for the weekend with winds at 17 mph, and Sunday, things get better at 10 mph.

In looking at the stats for Bay Hill last year, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Proximity to Hole, and Rough Proximity are important. First, is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, last year Bay Hill ranked 16th hardest in Driving Accuracy and 2nd in Greens in Regulation. In 2021 Bay Hill was 13th hardest in fairways hit but 5th in greens hit. In 2020 Bay Hill was 10th hardest in fairways hit but 1st in greens hit. Last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler was T-55th in Driving Accuracy and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, totaling 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. 2021 winner Bryson DeChambeau was T-25th in Driving Accuracy, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, totaling 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2020 Tyrrell Hatton was T-33rd in fairways hit, T-9th in greens hit, and 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2019 Francesco Molinari was T-3rd in fairways hit, and T-6th in greens hit, and 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-te-Green. 2018 winner Rory McIlroy was T-48th in fairways hit, and T-45th in greens hit for an overall 7th ranking in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In Proximity to hole Bay Hill was T-3rd last year, 6th in 2021, and 2nd in 2020. For 2019 it was 3rd and 13th in 2018. Last year’s winner Scheffler was 10th in Proximity to hole, and in 2021 DeChambeau was T-54th. In 2020 Tyrrell Hatton was 10th, in 2019, Molinari was 18th, and McIlroy was 1st in 2018.
Now in Rough Proximity, Bay Hill ranked 1st last year, 4th in 2021, and 1st in 2020. For 2019 Bay Hill ranked 2nd and 3rd in 2018. Last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler was 10th in Rough Proximity, while DeChambeau was 35th in 2021, while in 2020, Hatton was 12th. For 2019 Molinari was 15th, and McIlroy was 32nd in 2018.
In our last critical category Putting inside Ten Feet, Bay Hill was 5th last year, 24th in 2021, and 15th in 2020. For 2019 it was 32nd and 25th in 2018. Scheffler ranked 17th last year in Strokes Gained Putting and 76th in Strokes Gained Putting, making only 61 of 75 putts. In 2021 DeChambeau ranked 21st in Strokes Gained putting and T-12th in Putting inside ten feet, making 64 of 69 tries. In 2020 Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, as he was 21st in Putting inside 10 feet, making 63 of 70 putts. Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting in 2019 and was 16th in Putting inside 10 feet making 60 of 65 putts. As for McIlory, he made his biggest gains in 2018 on the greens, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting as he was 2nd in Putting inside ten feet, making 59 of 61 putts.

In looking at the winners’ stats, the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. Just look at this chart of all the Bay Hill winners from 1997, and you can see they either putt lights out and hit the ball subpar, or they hit the ball great and don’t do as well on the greens:

One thing about the greens, they are some of the best on the PGA Tour, and with little undulations, lots of putts are made.
Last year Scheffler was 17th in Strokes Gained Putting and 27th in total putting. Scheffler’s Achilles heel in putting last year was 25 putts between five and nine feet and only made nine of them. In 2021, DeChambeau was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting and 20th in total putting. DeChambeau had 61 putts from six feet and in and made 58. In 2020, Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting and T-34th in total putting. In 2019, Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd in total Putting. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches; in the 56 putts he had of seven feet or under, he only missed one. In 2018 McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the true key to him winning. The same with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the true key for him winning. The same thing happened with the 2016 champion Jason Day. He was 6th in Storkes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one, so you can see that you can not hit the ball that great but win, but it’s easier if you can hit the ball great.

But remember this, the weather is always the barometer for good play at Bay Hill.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a good barometer on the overall play from drives to hitting into the greens. For years Bay Hill is always in the top-15, last year, it ranked T-3rd.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin with shots from the fairway, last year, it was 6th, with each shot ending up 40 feet, 11 inches from the hole.

*Rough Proximity: Average length that a player hits to the pin from out of the rough. Showing how hard the rough is at Bay Hill, it was the hardest course to get close to the hole from the rough in 2016, players were only able to average 51 feet, 2 inches on each shot from the rough. It was also ranked 1st in 2020, with the average ball ending up 54 feet, 4 inches from the hole. Last year it ranked 1st as players were only able to average 55 feet, 8 inches from the hole, so it’s important to drive it well and keep it out of the rough.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. In 2016 Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses ranked, while last year ranked 5th (32nd hardest) out of 36 courses, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

110 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the player’s stats for the Arnold Palmer

DraftKings Picks & Historical totals

Of the 120 in the field, 98 have played at least once in the Arnold Palmer.  Here are the players with the most under-par totals at Bay Hill since 2015:

• Rory McIlroy is 55 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Francesco Molinari is 43 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Jason Day is 27 under in 29 rounds, playing 10 years
• Justin Rose is 27 under in 38 rounds, playing 12 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 22 under in 17 rounds, playing 5 years
• Adam Scott is 19 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Keegan Bradley is 17 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is 17 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Chris Kirk is 12 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 11 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Sungjae Im is 9 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Adam Hadwin is 8 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 8 under in 32 rounds, playing 8 years
• Luke List is 7 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Jordan Spieth is 6 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Charley Hoffman is 5 under in 24 rounds, playing 8 years
• Zach Johnson is 5 under in 50 rounds, playing 13 years
• Justin Thomas is 4 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Lucas Herbert is 2 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Scottie Scheffler is 2 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Tony Finau is 1 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Gary Woodland is even par in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Aaron Baddeley is 1 over in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Cameron Young is 1 over in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Corey Conners is 1 over in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 2 over in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jon Rahm is 2 over in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Collin Morikawa is 3 over in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Justin Suh is 3 over in 2 rounds, playing 1 year
• Will Zalatoris is 3 over in 8 rounds, playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Rory McIlroy is 55 under, playing 7 years (-2.0)
• Francesco Molinari is 43 under, playing 9 years (-1.4)
• Emiliano Grillo is 22 under, playing 5 years (-1.3)
• Jason Day is 27 under, playing 10 years (-0.9)
• Adam Scott is 19 under, playing 6 years (-0.9)
• Justin Rose is 27 under, playing 12 years (-0.7)
• Tyrrell Hatton is 17 under, playing 6 years (-0.7)
• Sungjae Im is 9 under, playing 4 years (-0.6)
• Adam Hadwin is 8 under, playing 4 years (-0.6)
• Tommy Fleetwood is 11 under, playing 6 years (-0.5)
• Keegan Bradley is 17 under, playing 12 years (-0.4)
• Chris Kirk is 12 under, playing 10 years (-0.4)
• Luke List is 7 under, playing 5 years (-0.4)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 8 under, playing 8 years (-0.3)
• Scottie Scheffler is 2 under, playing 2 years (-0.3)
• Charley Hoffman is 5 under, playing 8 years (-0.2)
• Zach Johnson is 5 under, playing 13 years (-0.1)
• Tony Finau is 1 under, playing 4 years (-0.1)
• Gary Woodland is even par, playing 7 years (0.0)
• Aaron Baddeley is 1 over, playing 6 years (0.1)
• Corey Conners is 1 over, playing 4 years (0.1)
• Billy Horschel is 4 over, playing 10 years (0.1)
• Rickie Fowler is 5 over, playing 11 years (0.1)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Honda, a total of 56 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,500
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,900
• Rory McIlroy – $10,600
• Max Homa – $9,700
• Justin Thomas – $9,600
• Collin Morikawa – $9,500
• Will Zalatoris – $9,400
• Tony Finau – $9,300
• Xander Schauffele – $9,200
• Patrick Cantlay- $9,100
• Viktor Holland – $9,000

A very interesting week, and the top of the list has some people who could win this week.  But at the end of the day, some players at $9,000 and below may better serve us this week.  First off is Jon Rahm at $11,500.  That is probably a mandatory selection since Rahm has won five times in the last five months and three times in his last five starts.  Still, he doesn’t have much Florida experience, only played in eight events in Florida.  Yes, he was T-6th at Valspar in 2019 and T-9th at the 2021 Players.  But I feel his game is not suited for Florida golf, so I am taking a pass on him.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,900, is a very good choice, showed that he can play well in Florida, but the question can he pull another double as he did in Phoenix.  He doesn’t have Rahm’s wins, but Scheffler is playing very well, and you can’t beat his 93 DraftKings point average.  I love Rory McIlroy at $10,600, despite his struggles in his last two events.  Rory has five top-tens in eight Palmer starts, think he is the player to beat this week.  Max Homa at $9,700, is a big no for me, this California kid struggles on Florida courses.  Yes, he was T-6th at Valspar in 2021 and T-10th at Bay Hill in 2021, but both years were calm weeks with very little wind.  So I would pass up on Homa for the next few weeks.  Justin Thomas is at $9,600, but the big question for me, he lives just down the road in Jupiter but only played once in 2015, finishing T-49th, so that tells me not to pick him because he has no confidence on the course.  Collin Morikawa at $9,500, is also a question mark, only played the course twice, the last time was T-9th in 2020.  Despite him playing well in 2023, it worries me that he missed the cut in Phoenix, despite playing great all the other times.  I will say no to Morikawa this week.  There is no real upside to Will Zalatoris at $9,400.  Yes, he was 4th in his last start at Genesis and was T-10th at Bay Hill in 2021, but I don’t think he is 100% yet, and there are better choices.  One of those better choices is not Tony Finau at $9,300.  Other than a 5th place finish at Valspar in 2017, he has played terribly and has avoided playing in the Palmer, so pass on him.  Xander Schauffele at $9,200, is a hard choice, other than finishing T-2nd at the Players in 2018 hasn’t had a top-ten in any of his other Florida starts.  His game has been Ok despite the back scare, I have to take a pass on him this week.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,100, is a no for me, he has never played at the Palmer or Honda and despite a runner-up at Valspar in 2017, has missed the cut in four of his seven Florida starts.  Viktor Holland at $9,000, is a yes for me, plays great in Florida with a pair of runner-ups at the Palmer and Workday Championship.  Has not played great of late but has made paychecks, and we feel he is close to his game right now.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  Going back to the 2010 Arnold Palmer on who has made the most cuts, it’s a look.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Bay Hill starts:

• Hideki Matsuyama made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Rory McIlroy made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
• Tyrrell Hatton made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• David Lingmerth made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Byeong Hun An made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Keith Mitchell made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Viktor Hovland made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Sungjae Im made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Troy Merritt made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Beau Hossler made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• J.J. Spaun made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Zach Johnson made 12 cuts in 13 starts for a 92.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Martin Laird made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Rickie Fowler made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Keegan Bradley made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Billy Horschel made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Francesco Molinari made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Patrick Rodgers made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Adam Scott made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Luke List made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Emiliano Grillo made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Sam Burns made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Chez Reavie made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Jason Day made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.
• Adam Hadwin made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Alex Noren made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Aaron Wise made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Tom Hoge made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

As I have said above, the difference between failing or winning comes down to some of these picks.  First is Sungjae Im at $8,900, he has played well in Florida and has played well of late.  His record is ok at the Palmer, was 3rd in 2020, and despite finishing T-42nd last week at the Honda, think he will play better this week.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,800, is someone to think of, has played well at the Palmer and Florida and, other than missing the cut at Pebble and Rivera, has played well.  Matt is worth considering.  Cameron Young at $8,700, is another to consider, he hasn’t played well other than finishing runner-up in Saudi Arabia but was T-16th at Honda and T-13th at the Palmer last year.  As much as I like him, going to take a pass.  Jordan Spieth at $8,600, is someone to think of, but his game has been all over the ballpark.  Lots of peaks and valleys, and he finishes T-6th at Phoenix and misses the cut the next week at the Genesis.  I feel there are better choices that will make you sleep better.  Jason Day at $8,500, is a very good choice, his game has seriously improved in 2023, he is healthy again, and I have to think a win could be on the horizon.  Has won at the Palmer and has played well in Florida, he has made a lot of DraftKings points, so he is a winner for me.  Tom Kim at $8,400, is also someone to think about, yes has never played an event in Florida but grew up in conditions similar, I think he is worth the price.  Tyrrell Hatton at $8,300, is an automatic pick.  He has played ok of late but has a great record in Florida, and the Palmer is his best Florida event.  Sam Burns at $8,100, is a great pick, again plays well in Florida and hasn’t played badly on the West Coast swing.  Keith Mitchell at $8,000, should be an automatic pick, has played well in Florida and had a great run on the west coast swing.  Shane Lowry at $7,900, is a player you want no part of this week and has missed the cut in all four of his Palmer starts.  Chris Kirk is $7,700, and the question is, can he do two wins in a row?  His record in Florida is ok, and he has finished in the top-15 in five of his last six Palmer Starts.  Now nobody has ever won the Honda and Palmer in the same year, but Kirk could do it if he isn’t too tired from last week.  More great picks, like Rickie Fowler at $7,700, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, Adam Hadwin, and Justin Rose at $7,600.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Gosh, we picked clean the $7,500 to $8,900 price range, are there any bargains?  Gary Woodland at $7,400, has great marks in Florida, and has played better on the west coast swing.  Has a good record at the Palmer, including T-5th last year.  Adrian Meronk at $7,200, is a very good choice, has played well in Europe and was T-14th last week at the Honda.  After that, I think he is on the cusp of some really good things.  Russell Henley at $7,100, is always a good choice in Florida, he should make the cut and get a lot of points.  Ryan Fox at $7,000, is also a good, solid choice.  Has never played in Florida but has played well on courses in Australia and Asia that have similar experiences.  Byeong Hun An at 7,000, is another good choice as a player who will make the cut and score a lot of points.  Has a good record at the Palmer, making five of five cuts.  Another good choice of a player who makes a lot of cuts is Taylor Pendrith at $6,900.  Many will pick Justin Suh and Eric Cole at $6,900, on what they did last week at Honda.  I am taking a pass on both, think they are spent after the Honda.  Ben Griffin has been another very steady player who will make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

The key stat for the winner:

• It’s said that ball striking is becoming a dinosaur on the PGA Tour, but that isn’t the case at Bay Hill, where hitting lots of greens is essential. Between 1997 and 2008, there wasn’t a winner that didn’t finish out of the top 20 of greens hit for the week.  In 2009 Tiger Woods changed that when he finished T50th, but since then, eight of the last 12 winners were in the top 20, including 2017 champion Marc Leishman who led the greens hit category  Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, was T-9th, hitting 44 of 72 greens.  In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd hitting 50 of 72 greens, in 2020, Tyrrell Hatton was T-9th in hitting 42 of 72 greens, while in 2019, Francesco Molinari was T-6th hitting 48 of the 72 greens.

Another key Bay Hill stat:

• Now it’s easy to point out how the winners have been in greens hit, but what has the trend been for everyone in the field?  The pattern is that more folks are hitting more greens.  In 2009, Bay Hill had the hardest greens to hit.  In a way, the wind helped make that stat, the weekend saw high winds with gusts up to 30 mph, but only 55.02 of the greens were hit that year.  The next year it jumped to 61.25% and was ranked 9th, and the number has stayed about the same with its ranking going up, in 2011 it ranked 15th on the PGA Tour.  In 2012 it climbed to 20th and then 16th in 2013.  In 2014 it ranked 23rd, and more players hit more greens, with the average going up again to 64.00%.  With the lack of wind and great weather, 2015 was a banner year for the players as they hit 68.41%, making it the 35th highest on the PGA Tour.  In 2016 it was the 14th hardest, with a field average of 60.98, the least amount since 2009.  In 2017 the course was the 7th hardest, with a field average of 58.71, while in 2018, with the lack of wind, the course was the 17th hardest on tour, with an average of 50.53.  In 2020 the course was the hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 74.11 average, in 2019, Bay Hill was the 5th hardest, with an average of 57.64.  In 2021 the course was 5th hardest in greens hit as the field hit 56.84 as the course played to a 73.02 average, 9th hardest on tour.  Last year Bay Hill was the 2nd hardest in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 54.70 greens, one of the reasons the course was the 4th hardest on the PGA Tour.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• This is the last tournament before the Players Championship, the most important PGA Tour event.  Making this month even more important, the Match Play is three weeks away and the Masters five weeks away.
• Kenny Perry had a perfect combination of being ranked fourth in both driving distance and accuracy in 2005.  Look for accuracy to once again prevail and look for another player like Perry, that combines straight driving with a bit of length.  So how do we determine a player like this?  Look at the total driving stat that combines distance and accuracy ranks to help determine your winner.  This year’s total driving stats are in our GOLFIQ stat section.  Players like Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry, Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Hayden Buckley, and Will Gordon are in the top ten.
• Unimportant stat: In eight of the last 23 years, Tiger Woods has been the winner. So what does that mean?  Experience seems to be important in many tournaments, but not at Bay Hill.   Since 1979, 14 of the winners either became first-time winners or had only won once before, just like last year’s champion Scottie Scheffler.  Also, 2017 champion Marc Leishman who claimed his second PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer.  Matt Every won for the first time at Bay Hill in 2014 (then winning for the second time in 2015), Martin Laird in 2011, Rod Pampling in 2006, and Chad Campbell in 2004.  But on the other side of the coin, the tournament has had some great players winning, like 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, 2016 champion Jason Day, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Ben Crenshaw, Fred Couples, Tom Kite, Paul Azinger, Payne Stewart, Fuzzy Zoeller and Tiger Woods.
• Birdies and patience are essential at Bay Hill. On most courses, the norm is making lots of birdies to keep pace, but at Bay Hill, pars are just as important.
• One thing for sure is that the odds are quite good that the winner will be from either Florida or the Orlando area.  Of the 120 in the field this week, a quarter of the field live in Florida, with a dozen or so having ties in the Orlando area.
• The weather in Florida has been pretty good the last couple of days, and the forecast calls for that to continue.  Each day will be perfect with no rain and sunny skies with temperatures in the high 80s.  Wind will be heavy, with gusts up to 25 mph.  That and the lack of rain will make the course player very fast and tough.