BlogPuerto Rico Open Preview and Picks

Things you need to know about the Puerto Rico Open

This will be the 14th Puerto Rico tournament that got started in 2008. This has always been a tournament about second-tier players, giving opportunities to those that didn’t qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a perfect way for a bottom-tier player to get himself full status with a win. Unfortunately, the winner gets about anything given to a regular winner except for one crucial invite to the Masters. Augusta won’t invite the winner in Puerto Rico this week. Another snub, the new Ryder Cup list won’t include money earned this year.

Course information:

• Grand Reserve Country Club
• Rio Grande, Puerto Rico
• 7,506 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Don’t let the name fool you. Seven years ago, this course was named Trump International. But that was in name only, Trump just managed things, and when the property went into bankruptcy, so did the Trump name. The course has a 77.7 rating and a slope rating of 135 from the championship tees. The course is public and also sells local memberships.
• Last year Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 71.34 and was the 23rd hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2021 Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 71.23 and was the 28th hardest courseIn 2020, Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 70.64 and was the 31st hardest course on tour in 2020. The hardest it ever played was in 2015, this course was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 72.570 average (high average due to high winds all four days). 
• The course is part of a 36-hole complex built in 2004 by Tom Kite. The championship course, the lakes and ocean nines, is used for the championship. The 18-hole is flat, with 13 of the 18 holes having water in play for the professionals. There are 62 bunkers, and the greens are 6,000 square feet, which is average size. The course has a special grass, SeaDwarf Paspalum, which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low quality of water to survive. The course is very tough for the average player, while it’s manageable for the pros who will play it this week. Since the course opened, it’s become the best course in Puerto Rico. What makes this course play tough is the weather. If it’s windy, then the course will play tough.
•   This year weather will play a factor this week, it will be warm with temperatures in the mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies, but with winds that will kick up each day that average between 14 to 18 mph wind.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Honda, a total of 56 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

It’s back to a regular tournament, and I will say this. With the field the way it is, and the course playing tough, one of the most critical items you should think about is picking six guys that will make the cut. This will be the hardest event in 2022 to pick players who will participate in four rounds. So make extra sure about your picks and remember the tour is now in Puerto Rico, and players that have done poorly out west may suddenly find their game on Bermuda greens’ heat, humidity, and wind.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Nate Lashley – $10,300
• Andrew Novak – $10,100
• Scott Piercy – $9,800
• Sam Stevens – $9,700
• Dylan Wu – $9,600
• Akshay Bhatia – $9,500
• Erik Barnes – $9,500
• MJ Daffue – $9,300
• Erik Van Rooyen – $9,200
• Cameron Percy – $9,100
• Carl Yuan – $8,900

What makes this event so tough is that a good amount of the players in the field, the average betters, have never bet on them.  We also had to be careful, names we do recognize, like Nate Lashley, Scott Brown, and Sean O’Hair, are really struggling, one of the reasons they are playing in Puerto Rico instead of Bay Hill.  So the key is to find guys that aren’t playing badly, they can’t keep up on the PGA Tour, players that do well on a course with lots of wind.

Right off the bat, have to decide on Nate Lashley, who is the top dog at $10,300.  The good news, he has played twice in Puerto Rico and was T-7th last year and T-8th in 2019.  Of all the players that have earned DraftKings points, he has an average of 54.6.  For 2023 he has made six of 11 cuts which aren’t good for a guy this expensive.  Have to go with him since he seems to play well on this course.  Andrew Novak at $10,100 has played in Puerto Rico once and finished T-22nd last year. We like him because in 2023, he made five of seven cuts, but like that, on seaside courses at Corales Puntacan was T-11th last year and T-17th in Bermuda last October.  Scott Piercy at $9,800, is a no, he missed the cut in his only Puerto Rico start and has only had one top-ten finish, and has struggled in 2023. Sam Stevens at $9,700 is a no for me, never played in Puerto Rico and has struggled in 2023, his best finish was T-13th at the Farmers.  Dylan Wu at $9,600, has the same story as Piercy, missed the cut in his only Puerto Rico start and has struggled in 2023.  That is until last week when he was T-10th at the Honda.  Akshay Bhatia at $9,500, is a Korn Ferry Tour player who had some success early in the Bahamas, finishing T-4th and T-7th, these are promising because both of those courses have the same design and problems as the Grand Reserve.  Never played in Puerto Rico, but he did make the cut at Honda finishing T-49th.  Have a good feeling about him.  I don’t have a good feeling about Erik Barnes at $9,500.  Never has played in Puerto Rico and does have a T-10th at the RSM Classic and a T-13th at the Farmers.  Still too many missed cuts in 2023.  MJ Daffue – $9,300, has some potential, and plays on many tours, including South Africa and Korn Ferry.  He was T-52nd in Puerto Rico in 2020, but like that, he has made about 60% of his cuts and had a T-9th at the Alfred Dunhill in December, playing in South Africa.  Erik Van Rooyen at $9,200, is a hit-or-miss type of guy.  In 2023 has only made three cuts in seven starts, but one of them was a T-6th at the American Express. Never played in Puerto Rico.  Cameron Percy at $9,100, shows a lot of promise, in nine Puerto Rico starts has two top-tens, T-7th last year and in 2021.  Also has four top-12 finishes in his last 21 starts, last week was T-12th at Honda.  Carl Yuan at $8,900, is a no, too many missed cuts on the PGA Tour, and missed the cut in his only Puerto Rico start.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I think the winner will come from this batch of players.  I like Harry Hall at $8,800, he has been consistent in 2023, in 12 starts made seven starts.  A rookie at Puerto Rico.  Ryan Gerard is $8,500, which is high for a guy who has made just one start as a professional on the PGA Tour.  That one start was pretty good, and a 4th last week at the Honda.  So he is a toss-up for me.  Brice Garnett at $8,400, is a yes for me, was T-7th last year in Puerto Rico and T-5th the year before.  On the PGA Tour, he has played a lot and misses a lot of cuts, but I feel this week will be good for him.  Harry Higgs at $8,100, makes 40% of his cuts, so he is a toss-up.  Can’t find anything to recommend him, but he does have a lot of experience.  Like Augusto Nunez at $7,800, mostly because he has made four of his last five cuts.  Paul Haley II at $7,600, is a yes for me, despite one missed cut at Puerto Rico, he has made five of his last six cuts, which is encouraging.  Same with Tano Goya at $7,500, he has made the cut in four of his last four starts, and in his only Puerto Rico start was T-44th in 2009.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Off the bat, I like Jim Herman at $7,500.  He misses a lot of cuts but every now and then strikes lighting in a bottle with three PGA Tour wins and one on the Korn Ferry Tour.  He was T-7th last year at Puerto Rico.  Josh Teater at $7,500, plays mostly on the Korn Ferry Tour, making half of his cuts.  But in 2020, he was runner-up in Puerto Rico, so have to consider him.  Fabian Gomez at $7,400, has been inconsistent in his PGA Tour starts, but in Puerto Rico, he has made 8 of 9 cuts, so we have to take him at such a cheap price.  S.Y. Noh at $7,300, makes 65% of his cuts and in Puerto Rico, has made four out of five so worth the gamble.  We have to take Scott Brown at $7,200, because he has won at Puerto Rico andmade ten cuts in ten tries.  On the PGA Tour, he has done ok of late, we are taking him to make the cut.  Last we have Geoff Ogilvy at $6,700, yes he isn’t the star he was a decade ago but can still make cuts.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Puerto Rico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

So what key stats is vital at Grand Reserve? Players that hit it long tend to do better, but the course is a bomber’s paradise. Because of the high winds that hit the course, hitting greens is tough. Last year it was 25th in Greens in Regulation, and in 2021 23rd hardest in greens hit. In 2020 was 26th in 2019, it was 18th, in 2017, it was 49th, in 2016, it was 26th, in 2015, it was the 20th hardest, while in 2014, it was the 38th hardest. Nothing else stands out in looking at all the stats other than driving distance.

There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event. Since it’s a second-tier event, it combines PGA and Korn Ferry tours. So there are no absolute favorites because there are no true marquee players. One thing of the past winners, done of them achieved significant success on the PGA Tour, so this is, for many, just a stepping stone to getting full-time access to the PGA Tour. Yes, Tony Finau won in 2016 and has won many times since on the PGA Tour. In 2020 Viktor Hovland broke the mold by winning in Puerto Rico and winning again on the PGA Tour at Mayakoba. In 2021 Branden Grace won and has played well since finishing T-2nd at Wyndham, 4th at Memorial, and T-7th at the U.S. Open. Last year’s champion Ryan Brehm is playing in the Palmer.

Since 2013, they collected stats, but it is hard to find what type of player wins. So the key is to look at two things, first, past results on this course and how they are playing going into the event. One thing about the winners is that they hit many greens, and six of the last nine were in the top ten in Greens in Regulation. Last year’s winner Ryan Brehm was T-11th hitting 53 of 72 greens. The previous year, Branden Grace was T-3rd in greens hit.

Will a newcomer win this week? Probably. It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.