BlogThe Players Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

How time flies fast. To think that just two years ago, golf was getting over COVID-19. At the time, Bryson DeChambeau was a big deal. Dustin Johnson was considered the best player in the world, the PGA Tour shocked the world by raising first place at the Players from $2.25 million to $4.5 million. Two years ago, Phil Mickelson was probably the most popular player active on tour, and the thought of Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler being the best players in the world was an absurd thought.

But in the two years since, more people feel that Scheffler and Rahm have brighter futures than DeChambeau, Mickelson, or Johnson. Again, the first-place check of $4.5 million awaits the winner of this week’s Players Championship. Showing you how shocking that figure of $4.5 million is, in 1998, the total purse of the Players Championship was $4 million, with it going up to $5 million in 1999.

Golf is a much different game now. Gambling has become significant, and this week for pick your pro players, choosing the right player is so important with such a high first-place prize. As for gamblers, The Players Championship is one of the most harrowing events to pick winners on. Over time, the course has evolved into a masterpiece and a different course from year in and year out. In looking at the Players Championship, it’s hard to find anyone that you can say is the right horse this week for the TPC Sawgrass. In the 40 times that the Players have played at TPC Sawgrass, only four have won it twice, Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, and Tiger Woods. Of all the tournaments played for over 20 years on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship is the only non-fall, full-field event the defending champion hasn’t won. Looking at the Players Championship field, it’s hard to pinpoint a horseplayer for this course.

To show how hard this event has been on every player, in looking at the 112 in the field this week, the most top-tens is just four, Adam Scott, who has played in 20 Players, Rory McIlroy, who has played in 12 Players, Jason Day and Francesco Molinari who both have played in 11 Players.  Of those in the field, only one, which will surprise you, has three top-ten finishes: Brian Harman.  Of the 112 players who have played in the Players, 74 of them have never finished in the top ten.  This shows that really aren’t many favorites based on past performance.

Give you an example of how you can’t count anyone as a favorite, Rory McIlroy won in 2019, and when he was defending champion in 2021, he missed the cut. Showing it’s hard to pick, McIlroy won in 2019 and missed the cut the previous year. The same with Jason Day, who won the Players in 2016, the prior year, he missed the cut, and in five previous visits to The Players before the win, he missed the cut three of the five years. Last year’s winner Cameron Smith isn’t in the field, 2021 champion Justin Thomas had played in five previous Players and only had one top-ten, so you couldn’t say he was a “horse for the course.” We can say the same for World Number one golfer Jon Rahm, he played at the Players five times, and in 2021 it was his first and only time in the top ten, he finished T-9th. Last year of the top-12 players on the leaderboard, five of them, Cameron Smith, Anirban Lahiri, Paul Casey, Harold Varner III, and Dustin Johnson, aren’t in the field this year. Look at some of the best young players, 2nd ranked player Scottie Scheffler has played twice in the Players and finished T-55th last year and missed the cut in 2021. 4th, Patrick Cantlay has played in five Players but has missed the cut in his last three starts. 6th ranked Xander Schauffele. finished T-2nd in his first start in 2018 but has missed the cut in his last three starts.  Talking about top-ranked players globally, you can’t find a player with more honors than Stewart Cink, who has played in 22 Players but has only made the cut in half of them, 11.  In all of those starts, he only has one top-ten finish, T-3rd in 2007.  Justin Rose has won around the world, but in 17 starts at the Players, he has only two top-tens, the best being T-4th in 2014.

The list of 35 champions is awe-inspiring as many of the best golfers of the last 40 years have won the Players. Still, the TPC Sawgrass has this amazing aurora in which we can say that there has never been anyone or a set of golfers that have dominated over TPC Sawgrass. The term “Horses for Courses” is a gambling term used in golf, indicating those golfers who do their best on specific courses. Just look at Tiger Woods. He won nine times at Torrey Pines, eight times at Bay Hill and Firestone Country Club, and five times at Augusta National, Cog Hill, and Muirfield Village. Yes, he won The Players twice, but in 19 starts, he only has five top-tens and the two victories to show that even the best in the world has problems playing the course.

Looking at the world’s best players, Jack Nicklaus played at TPC Sawgrass ten times and never finished higher than T-17th. Tiger Woods did win twice and was runner-up in 2000. But in his other 16 starts, he only had two top-ten and just six top-20 finishes, which showed that Tiger might have won twice but had a lot of tough times at Sawgrass. The point to all of this is to show that The Players Championship is the hardest of all events to pick a winner. There is no Horse for this course, and even though some of the top names in golf, like Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Nick Price, Davis Love III, and Fred Couples have won, we have also seen players like Craig Perks, Wi Woo Kim, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, and Stephen Ames win in the last 17 years.

Who is hot right now

Have to say that Jon Rahm is the hottest player on the field, he has won five times in his last ten starts.  Rahm won the Genesis three weeks ago and the American Express six weeks ago.  Max Homa has won twice in 2023, he was 2nd at the Genesis.  Scottie Scheffler won in Phoenix four weeks ago and was T-4th last week at the Honda,  In his last eight starts, he has six top-ten finishes, and his worst finish is T-12th at the Genesis.  These three will be prime picks this week, even though none of these three have played well at TPC Sawgrass.  But if you are going to take a hot player and say he can win this week, you don’t have to go further than Jason Day.  He won at The Players in 2016, and despite some lean times due to injuries, Day is on the comeback trail.  In his last six starts, he was T-18th at the Amex, T-7th at the Farmers, 5th at Phoenix, T-9th at the Genesis, and T-10th last week at the Honda.  Have to say he could be the best pick for this week, he has the experience and has played well.  One last player to consider, who is hot, is Patrick Cantlay, who was 3rd at the Genesis and T-4th at the Honda. So don’t be surprised to see any of these players winning this week.

We are talking about those going from hot to ice cold.

Going into Arnold Palmer, one of the hottest players in golf was Collin Morikawa, who was 2nd at Sentry Toff, rd at the Farmer, and T-6th at the Genesis.  But he missed the cut at Phoenix and did it again at the Palmer last week.  Since then, Justin Rose won at Pebble but missed the cut at Genesis and Palmer.  Another terrible guy is Hayden Buckley.  After finishing 2nd at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he has missed four cuts in his last five starts.  American Express runner-up Davis Thompson also has cooled down since Palm Springs, in four starts since has missed the cut twice, and his best finish was T-53rd last week.  So for these players, it’s best to forget about them this week.

The season is almost half over. 

It may be early March, but we are playing the 20th of 47 events on tour for the year.  So it’s hard to believe that the golf year is about halfway over.  Over the next 24 weeks, along with this week’s Players, we have four majors to play, one WGC event, and three FedEx Cup playoffs, so I guess it’s easy to say this is the start of the massive events on the PGA Tour.  But in a way, that isn’t true.  In past years the Players was the first time you could count all the best players in one spot.  But with four designated events played already, the Players is just another designated event, and we have seen the best play in four other events in the last nine weeks.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week we have the crowning jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 49th edition, which has been played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Besides the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf.  In looking at the field the last couple of years, only one other tournament in golf gets more top-100 ranked players, the PGA Championship.  Thanks to LIV Golf, those days are probably finished, as the four major will be the only place all of the best will be together for one event.  We are continuing to see the importance of changing dates from May back to March, this will be the fourth time in a row the Players will be in March.  With very little rain the last few weeks, tournament officials will get a firm and fast course.  If the weather does get windy, which isn’t forecast, but you never know since the course is just a mile from the ocean, we could have a very tough course this year.  So look for high scores, as the weather and wind will make it challenging.

Many may feel that it takes a lot of experience to win the Players? Since the event moved to the Stadium course, 19 different players in their 20s have won, including last year’s champion Cameron Smith, 2021 winner Justin Thomas, 2019 champion Rory McIlroy, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim, 2016 champion Jason Day and 2015 winner Rickie Fowler.  The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004, Sergio Garcia in 2008, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Fowler in 2015, Day in 2016, Kim in 2017 and Rory in 2019.  I also bring up guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson, and Tim Clark, who have also won, so anything can happen this week.

Course information:

• The Players Stadium Course
• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,256 yards     Par 36-36–72

TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration bermudagrass while the rough is 419 bermudaGrass.  The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa in it, which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course played to a 72.62 average last year and was the 12th toughest course on tour in 2022.

Here is a look at how hard TPC Sawgrass has played over the years.

Rank compared to

Year  Scoring avg    other courses

2022       72.619      12th

2021       72.421      16th

2019       71.513      23rd

2018       71.409      29th

2017       73.289       5th

2016       72.055      19th

2015       72.083      18th

2014       72.155      25th

2013       72.323      19th

2012       72.466      19th

2011       72.000      23rd

2010       71.804      28th

2009       72.690      12th

2008       74.286      6th

2007       73.248      12th

2006       73.529      7th

2005       72.841      17th

2004       73.004      12th

2003       72.541      21st

2002       73.500      3rd

2001       73.536      3rd

2000       74.451      2nd

1999       74.642      3rd

1998       73.375      7th

• The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982.  That year the course was very “raw,” with many complaints from the players that the greens and landing areas had too much slope.  Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years, improvements have made the course more “player-friendly”.
• Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players didn’t care much about to one of the most loved but most robust courses on Tour.  With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course underwent an extensive renovation in 2007 in which all of the grass on the tees, fairways, and greens were stripped off with a new drainage and irrigation system placed underneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system just like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.
• At the same time, 122 yards were added to the course, and the rough was Bermuda instead of rye.
• With all of this, plus the new clubhouse, it gave the Players a new dimension in making it one of the best tournaments in the world, with the possibility of it being considered a major one day.
• A couple of things to know, the average green size is 4,500, which is small and makes the targets harder.  Small greens emphasize shotmaking more, but you have to be useful in getting it up and down.  Water is on all 18 holes, but for the pros, water comes into play on 11 holes. There are a total of 92 bunkers around the course, along with a lot of waste areas in the fairways.
• Two other things, in 2018 and in 2017, the course played to a yardage of 7,189 which is 26 yards shorter than in 2016 before the 12th hole got changed.
• This year the course goes back over 7,200 yards as 19 yards have been added to the 9th hole, making it a 602-yard par 5.

A look at the winners of the Players at TPC Sawgrass:

35 have won the 40 Players Championship since the event moved to its permanent home of TPC Sawgrass.  Of those 35 champions, they have…

• Played in 15,077 PGA Tour events in their careers
• Won a total of $1,081,969,898. Yes, over a billion dollars have been won by the 35 winners
• With a total of $73.8 million being won at the Players
• The 35 have won a total of 468 times on the PGA Tour
• While 21 of the 34 won a total of 53 major championships
• Seven of the 35 are members of the World Golf Hall of Fame
• Ten of the 35 winners spent a total of 1,286 weeks as world number one.
• (Woods 683 weeks, Greg Norman 311, Rory McIlroy 122, Jason Day 51, Nick Price 44, Fred Couples 16, David Duval 15, Adam Scott 11, Martin Kaymer 8, and Justin Thomas 5 weeks)
• Of the winners of the Players, only two won their first event at the Players, Craig Perks and Tim Clark. For Perks, it was his only win on the PGA Tour, while Clark won again four years later.
• Of the 35 winners, these nine did it on their second start: Adam Scott, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Stephen Ames, Steve Elkington, and Si Woo Kim.
• Only four made the Players their last PGA Tour victory: Jerry Pate, Craig Perks, K.J. Choi, and Justin Thomas.

In talking about those that have won at the Players, it’s interesting to note that the new breed of winners, those at the top of the world rankings, seem to struggle at the Players.  Of the top ten, only #3 Rory McIlroy, #5 Cameron Smith, and #8 Justin Thomas have won at TPC Sawgrass.  Here is what has happened to all ten:

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Sawgrass.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Sawgrass, data from last year’s Players Championship, and data from all the field players with stats from 2023. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
In 2019 the Players Championship returned to its March date, thinking that the course would have more bite to it with March winds. When it was played in May, the course played differently due to the heat but mostly the lack of winds. Between 2013 and 2018, the course only played tough once, in 2017, when all four days saw the wind blowing 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph over the weekend. The course played to a 73.29 average and was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The next year in 2018, a combination of low winds, lots of thunderstorms, and rain helped make the course play to a 71.41 scoring average, the lowest the course has ever played in its history. So it was essential to change dates, and even though they did change dates in 2019 and each day saw winds in the 8 to 20 mph area, the scoring was still low, with the average being 71.51, which ranked T-23rd.
Still, the weather is one of the things that makes TPC Sawgrass unique, weather and wind. It’s about a mile from the Atlantic, and if the wind blows, it plays tough. When course architect Pete Dye was still alive, he said many times over the last 40 years of his life that he kept in the back of his mind in designing the holes was the March winds. Each hole is challenging with water on every one of them, but water becomes a hazard on 12 holes, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9,11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, and 18. Bunkering is also challenging, along with chipping, as most of the greens are raised, so a shot missing a green is an adventure getting it up and down.
Between the first year, it was played at TPC Sawgrass in 1982 and its last year in its last March date in 2006. It was played in March when conditions were different due to higher winds and cooler weather. When the dates changed from 2007 to May, winds decreased and were much warmer. You could say that the change of dates made the event play easier because of the lack of wind. So when the tournament returned in March 2019, we had already seen drastically different conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast for this week, we know that weather will be a factor this year. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday in the afternoon, but Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s each day, but the weather is not going to be that great. Winds will be blowing around 11 to 14 mph on the first three days, Sunday is going to be better with winds around 9 mph. Not only is it supposed to rain all day, but look for winds in the neighborhood of 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
So look for a lot of what happened on Saturday and Sunday at the Palmer, in-between conditions on a really tough course that is bone dry from the lack of rain.

Still, how much did the change of date cause the course to play differently? The winners have been pretty consistent, as hitting greens is very important in most years. Between 1997 and 2006, seven of the ten winners were in the top ten in greens hit, with four leading that stat. Since the change to May, of the 12 winners, six of the winners have been in the top ten, with only one, Sergio Garcia leading in greens hit. In 2018 Webb Simpson was T-5th, but most of the time in the May dates, it wasn’t that important. With the change to March in 2019, Rory McIlroy was T-3rd hitting 58 of 72 greens, while Justin Thomas in 2021 was T-17th, hitting 52 of 72 greens. Last year Cameron Smith had a tough time, only hitting 45 of 72 greens and ranking T-52nd.

In looking at our four categories, we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as very important. The course ranked T-29th last year, T-25th in 2021, and 3rd in 2019. (Remember, no 2020 because of COVID-9). It was T-15th on tour in 2018 and T-11th in 2017. But in 2016, it was T-2nd, so we picked that as the key stat.
In looking at our past winners, Cameron Smith ranked 35th in this stat last year. In 2021, Justin Thomas led that stat, and in 2019, Rory McIlroy led the stat also. In 2018, Webb Simpson was 16th. But in 2017, Si Woo Kim was 2nd in his win, while in 2016, Jason Day was 3rd. In 2015 Rickie Fowler won, ranking 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2014 winner Martin Kaymer was 2nd in this stat while 2013 champion Tiger Woods was 1st. So you can see that Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is very important in winning at the Players, as proven in seven of the last nine winners, other than Smith and Simpson finished no higher than 5th.

The next important stat is Proximity to hole. Last year it ranked t-9th on Tour as Smith ranked T-11th. In 2021 it ranked 9th on the PGA Tour, with Justin Thomas ranking 8th. In 2019 it ranked 6th on tour, with McIlroy ranking 11th, the previous year, the course ranked 9th on tour, with Simpson ranking 69th. In 2017 it ranked 2nd on tour, with Kim finishing T-39th in that stat. In 2016 it ranked 14th on tour, with champion Jason Day ranking T-50th in this stat. But in 2015, this stat was important in Rickie Fowler’s win. He was T-3rd while in 2014 Martin Kaymer was 46th while Tiger in 2013 was T-23rd. Still, since hitting greens and getting it close is crucial, we feel this stat’s importance.

Our third important stat is scrambling since it’s vital to hit greens, and hard to do this. You have to be able to get it up and down on the greens you miss. Last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 12th hardest in scrambling while winner Cameron Smith ranked T-22nd. In 2021 it was the 6th hardest while winner Justin Thomas ranked 14th. In 2019 the course was 8th hardest while McIlroy was T-40th. In 2018 it was 7th hardest on tour while Simpson was 24th. In 2017 the course was 4th in this stat while the winner Si Woo Kim was 1st in scrambling. For 2016 the course ranked 9th in scrambling, while we see that winner Jason Day was 1st in this stat. In 2015 Rickie Fowler was 10th, while in 2014, Martin Kaymer was 4th, and Tiger Woods in 2013 was 6th. So you can see the importance of scrambling.

Our fourth stat is something that was very hard to pinpoint. That is because putting doesn’t show us much, and there is nothing that catches our attention in playing the par 3s, par 4s, and par 5s. But one thing that TPC Sawgrass does give up is a lot of birdies. It seems hard to believe since the course is so hard, but 1,457 birdies were made last year, and it ranked 32nd hardest. Winner Smith led the stat as he made 24 birdies on the week. In 2021 1,576 birdies were made as 15 other courses saw more birdies made, and winner Justin Thomas ranked 3rd, making 21 birdies (Paul Casey & Talor Gooch made 22). In 2019 1,704 birdies were made on the course, as only eight other courses saw more birdies made. I was surprised to see that Rory made 21 birdies, and it was T-5th (Brandt Snedeker and Abraham Ancer led with 23). The biggest change is that since the event moved to March, we have seen fewer birdies made each year. The difference between 2019 and last year is a remarkable 247 fewer birdies last year compared to 2019, so maybe this is a sign that the course is getting tougher.
Back to May events, in 2018, 1,754 birdies were made, and only four of the 51 courses saw more birdies made. Webb Simpson made 23 which was T-2nd. In 2017, remember the course played very tough, it had 1,429 birdies made, making it the 17th hardest of 50 courses. One thing to realize is that the field is 144 players, while most events have fields of 156, giving it more chances for more birdies, But if you look at some of the other courses that have had more birdies, they aren’t as challenging as TPC Sawgrass, so that is why making lot’s of birdies is essential. Now total birdies are very misleading since some players like Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott haven’t played as many events as those that play week in and week out. Our fourth important stat is birdie average, which is the average birdies made for each round. In looking at the last nine winners, Cameron Smith ranked 1st, Justin Thomas ranked 3rd, Rory McIlroy ranked T-5th, Webb Simpson ranked T-2nd in 2017, Si Woo Kim ranked T-34th while in 2016 Jason Day ranked T-2nd in birdie average, 2015 winner Rickie Fowler was T-1st, Martin Kaymer in 2014 was T-9th, and Tiger in 2013 was T-15th.
But the big thing to think about this year is that the course will play differently not only with the change of dates and the grass, which will be overseeded with Rye, creating different challenges. But the weather is going to be perfect so that good play gets rewarded and pro shots get penalized. Last year was a bit of a fluke as Cameron Smith wasn’t that great from tee to green but dominated all the putting stats, especially in the under 10 feet range, as he made 60 of 65 in this range. So will we see high scores this year? Probably not, but if the forecast is wrong and the wind blows, with hard, fast fairways and greens could make for tough going.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 22nd, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Sawgrass ranked T-9th as the players averaged hitting it 26 feet, 0 inches away from the hole.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Takes the number of birdies and multiplies it by the number of rounds so that we can see the average of birdies made per round. Last year 1,457 birdies were made, making it a 3.44 average per player.

Here are 139 of 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

#	Name	*Strokes gained Tee-to-Greens	*Proximity to hole	*Scrambling	*Birdie Average	Total Rank All Categories	DraftKings Salary
1	Tony Finau (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	4	37	11	5	57	9200
2	Max Homa (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	9	45	7	4	65	9900
3	Jon Rahm (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	3	15	60	1	79	11800
4	Tom Kim (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	14	40	10	24	88	8100
5	Patrick Cantlay (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	7	66	19	2	94	9700
6	Viktor Hovland (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	23	45	36	13	117	8900
7	Collin Morikawa (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	5	50	52	14	121	9500
8	Ben Griffin (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	30	31	46	19	126	7100
9	Tom Hoge (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	35	4	75	12	126	7400
10	Brendon Todd (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	67	19	13	52	151	6900

Here is a link to all the player’s stats for The Players Championship

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 112 have played at least once at TPC Sawgrass.

Here are the players with the most under-par totals at The Players since 2010:

• Adam Scott is 47 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Justin Thomas is 41 under in 27 rounds, playing 7 years
• Jason Day is 38 under in 36 rounds, playing 11 years
• Matt Kuchar is 34 under in 41 rounds, playing 12 years
• Rory McIlroy is 29 under in 32 rounds, playing 10 years
• Francesco Molinari is 28 under in 34 rounds, playing 11 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 27 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 25 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Si Woo Kim is 23 under in 21 rounds, playing 6 years
• Keegan Bradley is 22 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
• Justin Rose is 21 under in 36 rounds, playing 11 years
• Corey Conners is 18 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Billy Horschel is 17 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Russell Knox is 17 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Webb Simpson is 15 under in 34 rounds, playing 11 years
• Jon Rahm is 14 under in 19 rounds, playing 5 years
• Kevin Kisner is 14 under in 22 rounds, playing 7 years
• Shane Lowry is 14 under in 22 rounds, playing 7 years
• Tom Hoge is 13 under in 15 rounds, playing 4 years
• Alex Noren is 12 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• Chris Kirk is 12 under in 37 rounds, playing 11 years
• Doug Ghim is 12 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Joel Dahmen is 12 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Will Zalatoris is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Ryan Palmer is 9 under in 34 rounds, playing 12 years
• Jhonattan Vegas is 8 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Seamus Power is 8 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Taylor Pendrith is 6 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Chesson Hadley is 5 under in 18 rounds, playing 6 years
• Dylan Frittelli is 5 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Russell Henley is 5 under in 26 rounds, playing 9 years
• Sungjae Im is 5 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Viktor Hovland is 5 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Denny McCarthy is 4 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• J.T. Poston is 4 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Lucas Glover is 4 under in 29 rounds, playing 10 years
• Max Homa is 4 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Adam Hadwin is 3 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Jordan Spieth is 3 under in 22 rounds, playing 8 years
• Rickie Fowler is 3 under in 31 rounds, playing 11 years
• Xander Schauffele is 3 under in 10 rounds, playing 4 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Corey Conners is -18 under, playing 3 years (-6.0)
• Doug Ghim is -12 under, playing 2 years (-6.0)
• Justin Thomas is -41 under, playing 7 years (-5.9)
• Tommy Fleetwood is -25 under, playing 5 years (-5.0)
• Will Zalatoris is -10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Joel Dahmen is -12 under, playing 3 years (-4.0)
• Seamus Power is -8 under, playing 2 years (-4.0)
• Adam Scott is -47 under, playing 12 years (-3.9)
• Hideki Matsuyama is -27 under, playing 7 years (-3.9)
• Si Woo Kim is -23 under, playing 6 years (-3.8)
• Jason Day is -38 under, playing 11 years (-3.5)
• Tom Hoge is -13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
• Rory McIlroy is -29 under, playing 10 years (-2.9)
• Matt Kuchar is -34 under, playing 12 years (-2.8)
• Jon Rahm is -14 under, playing 5 years (-2.8)
• Francesco Molinari is -28 under, playing 11 years (-2.5)
• Dylan Frittelli is -5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Viktor Hovland is -5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Alex Noren is -12 under, playing 5 years (-2.4)
• Russell Knox is -17 under, playing 8 years (-2.1)
• Keegan Bradley is -22 under, playing 11 years (-2.0)
• Kevin Kisner is -14 under, playing 7 years (-2.0)
• Shane Lowry is -14 under, playing 7 years (-2.0)
• Denny McCarthy is -4 under, playing 2 years (-2.0)
• Max Homa is -4 under, playing 2 years (-2.0)
• Justin Rose is -21 under, playing 11 years (-1.9)
• Billy Horschel is -17 under, playing 9 years (-1.9)
• Sungjae Im is -5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Webb Simpson is -15 under, playing 11 years (-1.4)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Palmer and Puerto Rico, a total of 58 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,800
• Rory McIlroy – $11,000
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,600
• Xander Schauffele – $10,000
• Max Homa – $9,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
• Collin Morikawa – $9,500
• Justin Thomas – 9,400
• Tony Finau – $9,200
• SungJae Im – $9,000

Remember what I told you before, there are no real favorites at the Players, and this tournament is hard to gauge since there are no “horses for courses.”  Making things even harder, the course is bone dry and playing fast, so with any wind, it will be really hard to gauge a winner.  So the strategy should be to go low and not get caught with many high-paying players.  Also, you have to pick six players that will make the cut.  In some cases, that could be hard.  So I am saying no to John Rahm at $11,800, just because his record isn’t great at TPC Sawgrass, and he has struggled to play in Florida.  Just remember last week at the Palmer, Rahm was great in the first round but terrible the other 54 holes, so don’t even think of picking him this week.  As for Rory McIlroy at $11,000, I am being careful with him, yes he is playing well, and he was runner-up last week, but his cost is very high. He also made many DraftKings points last week and earned 94.5, so Rory is a tossup pick.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,600, has to be a yes, he was T-4th at the Palmer and has averaged over 105 DraftKings points in his last eight starts.  Xander Schauffele at $10,000, is a big fat no, other than finishing runner-up at the Players in 2018 since then has missed the cut three straight times.  He has also not played well in his last couple of starts.  Max Homa at $9,900, is also a big fat no, don’t think this California kid can play on Bermuda and wind.  He was T-14th at the Palmer last week and was T-13th at the Players last year, but his cost is too high for the return.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,700, is a very hard choice. First, his history at the Players is not good, missing his last three cuts, but his game has come around of late, he was 3rd at the Genesis and T-4th at the Palmer, so maybe this will be his week to shine.  Collin Morikawa at $9,500, is a no, he is very inconsistent, missing the cut at Phoenix, then T-6th at the Genesis, and missing the cut last week at Bay Hill.  He missed the cut last year at the Players, sorry can’t see him turning it around.  Justin Thomas at 9,400, is another tough choice, yes he won at the Players in 2021 but has struggled of late except for a 4th at Phoenix.  You never know what he can do, don’t think he is worth it this year.  Tony Finau at $9,200, is a no, miss the cut in his last two Players’ starts, and he has been in the top-25 in his last eight starts, but he is just too much of a gamble for this week.  SungJae Im at $9,000, is also a no, just too expensive for what he gives us.  Sure, he was T-4th at the Farmers and T-6th at Phoenix but was T-56th at Genesis, T-42nd at Honda, and T-21st at the Palmer.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Players Championship on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least four Players starts:

• Justin Thomas made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.
• Jon Rahm made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,800.
• Tom Hoge made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Adam Scott made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Si Woo Kim made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Nick Taylor made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Keith Mitchell made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Matt Kuchar made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Russell Knox made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Keegan Bradley made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Chris Kirk made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Adam Hadwin made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Brian Harman made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Billy Horschel made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Jhonattan Vegas made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Patton Kizzire made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Jason Day made 7 cuts in 11 starts for a 63.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Justin Rose made 7 cuts in 11 starts for a 63.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Michael Thompson made 5 cuts in 8 starts for a 62.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Rory McIlroy made 6 cuts in 10 starts for a 60.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,000.
• Alex Noren made 3 cuts in 5 starts for a 60.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Viktor Hovland at $8,900, is a thought.  He was T-9th last year at the Players and was in contention last week at the Palmer before falling on the back nine to finish T-10th.  Just have this feeling that he is on the cusp of getting it together, and it could come this week.  Many like Will Zalatoris at $8,800, but I am not one of them.  Just don’t think he plays well in Florida, and he has been inconsistent since his return to the Sentry.  Don’t get fooled by his 4th at Genesis, think he won’t do the job this week.  Jordan Spieth at $8,700, is another that we can go in either direction.  He looked great at the Palmer until the final five holes when his putter got ice-cold.  Besides finishing T-4th in his first Players start in 2014, he has struggled at TPC Sawgrass, so it’s best to forget about him.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,600, is a good possibility, he can play well in tough conditions, and his T-14th at the Palmer was good considering his shot 76 in the third round.  Cameron Young at $8,500, is also worth a look, yes he missed the cut last year at the Players, but he is so explosive and is cheap enough to gamble on.  Tyrrell Hatton at $8,300, has to be one of your players, He struggled in the last round of the Palmer last week, finishing T-4th.  But he looked good and was T-13th last year at the Players, look for good things from him.  Shane Lowry at $8,200, is also worth taking, he was 8th at the Players in 2021 and T-13th last year.  He struggled at the Palmer last week over the weekend, but think he will straighten that out.  Now Jason Day at $8,000, is my main choice for the week.  He is a past winner at the Players, but I like how well he has played, finishing in the top ten in his last four starts.  Just have a feeling he has drastically improved his game and looks healthy again.  Tommy Fleetwood at $7,900, will be many people’s choice, but he won’t mind.  Just don’t think his game is ready, he hasn’t shown us much in months.  Last year Anirban Lahiri was the talk of the Players on the way to finishing 2nd, think that Sahith Theegala at $7,600, will be the talk this week.  He has played great in 2023, was T-5th at the Zozo Championship, T-2nd at the RSM, T-4th at the Farmers, T-6th at the Genesis, and T-14th last week at the Palmer.  He is ready to play great this week, and his price tag is a great bargain when you consider that he has averaged over 85 DraftKings points in 2023.  Keegan Bradley at $7,500, is a great bargain when you consider how well he has played and was 5th last year at the Players.  Last week was T-10th at Bay Hill.  Rickie Fowler at $7,500, is also worth trying, he has been in the top 31 in his last four starts, and as a past winner have to think he will be great this week.

Are there any “Bargains” at the Players Championship?

Yes, there are, and the biggest right off the bat am very shocked to see these two great Florida players so cheap. First is Keith Mitchell at $7,400, he was T-13th at the Players last year and was T-24th at the Palmer.  You have to think he will make the cut and earn you many DraftKings points.   The same with Corey Conners at $7,400.  He has played ok this year, making a lot of cuts, and you know that he will do well in getting a lot of DraftKings points.  Taylor Pendrith at $7,200, is also worth a look, he was T-13th at the Players last year, and even with missing the cut at the Palmer, feel he is too good of a Florida player not to pick him.  Same with Adam Hadwin at $7,100, he also missed the cut at the Palmer, but I am not worried since he has played well at the Players, including a T-9th last year.  Thomas Detry at $7,100, is also back in favor with me after withdrawing at the Honda.  He played steady last week at the Palmer finishing T-24th, and I think will do the same this week at the Players.  Ben Griffin at $7,100, is also very steady, he was T-21st at the Honda and T-14th at the Palmer, playing in his first Players.  Many will pick Kurt Kitayama at $6,900, because he is cheap at $6,900 but because he played so well at the Palmer.  I think his game is great with his improved driving, and he will continue this at the Players.  Last is Webb Simpson at $6,800.  This past champion has been struggling with injury and seems to have put things back together again.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at The Players Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for it with his win in 2002.  Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour.  On top of that, since 1982, when the Players switch to the Stadium course, there have been 35 different winners, with 21 of them winning 52 major championships. Still, the fact is if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it, the cream always rises to the top.   Just look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass, Thomas, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson, Day, McIlroy, and Woods. Not a bad list.  But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions, so if that happens this year, look for a marquee winner.  Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship.  Talking about weird winners, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim also goes down in the annals of the Players as a long-shot winner.  He became the youngest winner at 21 years, 10 months, and 16 days and he only had 61 career PGA Tour starts, the 2nd least of anyone to win the Players (Henrik Stenson won on his 44th PGA Tour career start)  In his winning year the weather saw four days of winds up to 20 mph.  Also, remember one of the worst weather weeks the Players had ever seen in 2005, it was bad that the tournament finished on Monday with Fred Funk winning.  So maybe this opens the door if the weather is bad for a non-marquee winner.

Totally useless stat:

One of the most significant oddities of The Players Championship is the fact that nobody has ever repeated as champion, which won’t happen this year. If you go back and look at all the tournaments that started before 1998, the only other one like this was the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee which is no longer played.  Six players have won this event multiple times (including all years), but none in consecutive years. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 1978). Two-time winners include Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996), and Davis Love III (1992, 2003).  There have only been four multiple winners since it moved to TPC Sawgrass.

The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle, who won in a playoff in 1987.  We say unusual because of his 13 starts he only made three cuts, his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994, and a T70th in 1997.  Now Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries, but after winning the 2002 Players, he finished T17th the next year.  Also, have to add the 2016 winner Jason Day to this list.  In five tries before he won, he missed the cut three times.

So what does it take to win at the Players?

• Going back to 2000, every winner but nine have been in the top 10 of greens hit category, and five of them have led (Sergio Garcia-2008, Stephen Ames-2006, Fred Funk-2005, Adam Scott-2004, Hal Sutton 2000). In 2012 Matt Kuchar was T3rd in hitting 53 of the 72 greens, in 2013, Tiger Woods was also T3rd hitting 55 of 72 greens.  In 2014 Martin Kaymer also finished 3rd, hitting 54 of 72 greens. In 2015 Rickie Fowler had the worst greens-hit performance of any champion going back to 1997, he hit only 45 of 72 greens and ranked T-51st.  In 2016 Jason Day hit 52 of 72 greens and ranked T-15th, in 2017 Si Woo Kim hit 45 of 72 greens (the least of any champion since 1997) and ranked T-37th.  In 2018 Webb Simpson hit 55 of 72 greens and was T-5th; in 2019, Rory McIlroy hit 58 of 72 greens and was T-3rd.  In 2021 Justin Thomas hit 52 of 72 greens and was T-17th, while Cameron Smith hit 45 of 72 greens last year and ranked the worst of all the champions at T-52nd.
• Great putting is a must for the week. The greens are always tricky and fast; historically, players have had a tough time making putts inside of ten feet.  In looking at the rankings, last year, TPC Sawgrass was the 15th hardest course in making putts inside ten feet with an average of 87.68.  In 2021 it was T-23rd hardest course in making putts inside ten feet with an average of 86.75%.  In 2018 it was ranked T-14th hardest course with an average of 87.02%. In the past, the number of putts hasn’t been the key, as between 2004 and 2010, nobody was in the top ten in the number of putts made. K.J. Choi broke that streak finishing T6th in 2011 with only 108 putts, while Kuchar was T5th in 2012 with 110 putts.  In 2013 Tiger Woods was T35th taking 114 putts; in 2014, Martin Kaymer also took 114 putts, ranking T38th.  In 2015 Rickie Fowler was T-2nd taking only 106 putts, while in 2016, Jason Day was T-3rd taking just 107 putts.  In 2017 Si Woo Kim kept the streak going as his 108 putts ranked T-3rd, and in 2018, Webb Simpson also had 108 putts which ranked T-4th.  In 2019 Rory McIlroy had 116 putts which ranked T-43rd.  In 2021 Justin Thomas had 112 putts and ranked T-8th, while last year, Cameron Smith putted lights out with only 101 putts to lead that stat and have the lowest putts of any champion going back to 1997.
• Scrambling is important, no matter how well a player does, he will still miss greens and have to be able to get it up and down to win.  Last year it was the 12th hardest on the PGA Tour, with a field average of 53.92.  Winner Cameron Smith was T-22nd in scrambling, Smith got it up and down 18 of the 27 greens he missed.  In 2021 TPC Sawgrass was the 6th hardest with a field average of 52.19.  Justin Thomas was 14th last year, getting it up and down 13 of 20 greens missed.  In 2019 TPC Sawgrass was the 8th hardest course to get it up and down, as the field averaged 55.08 in getting it up and down.  McIlory finished T-40th in scrambling.  In 2018 it was the 7th hardest course to get it up and down as the field averaged getting it up and down 53.013%, with Webb Simpson finishing 24th.  But in 2017 SiWoo Kim and Jason Day in 2016 leading the scrambling stat getting it up and down 81.48 for Kim and 85% for Day.  There are a lot of tough chips on this course, and it will take a lot of chips and runs instead of pitching it in the air.
• Lastly, the last three holes are the most talked about holes in golf.  They all represent their challenges, problems, and drama, as water plays a prominent role.  Between 2003 and 2019, 2,127 balls have gotten wet on the three holes, compare this to holes 1 thru 15, which have had a total of 1,911 balls in the water.  The 17th has the most with 932; the 18th has seen 872 go in the water, while the 16th has seen 626 balls in the water.  So in doing the math, these three holes have been played 7,850 times with 2,430 in the water for a 30.9% average.  So the chances of getting your ball wet on those holes on any given round is a shade under 3 in 10.  In 2005 & ’07, 50 balls went into the water on the 17th hole, the most of any year since 2003.  Last year 29 balls for water on 17.

Here is how the last 15 winners of the Players did on the final three holes in their final rounds:

Since hole-by-hole records have been kept, here is a summary of how the winners fared on the final three holes in the final round:

16th hole – Winner has never made higher than par, with four Eagles (last was Rickie Fowler in 2015), 14 birdies (last was Justin Thomas in 2021), and 20 pars

17th hole – Winner has birdied the hole 11 times (last was Cameron Smith in 2022), par has been made 25 times, and three bogeys on the hole (last was Matt Kuchar in 2012).

18th hole – Only four times has the winner birdied 18, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Steve Elkington in both 1991 & ’97, and Rickie Fowler in 2015.  25 times has the winner made par while 8 times the champion made bogey, the last being Phil Mickelson in 2007.  In 2018 Webb Simpson made a double on the hole, the first champion to end his championship in that manner.  In 2022 Cameron Smith had a bogey on 18 in the final round

Here is a look at how the last 15 winners of the Players have done on 16, 17, and 18 in their winning years: