Valspar Championship Key Fantasy Stats

Valspar Championship

March 16th – 19th, 2023

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Palm Harbor, FL

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,340

Purse: $8.1 million

with $1,458,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Sam Burns

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, data from the 2022 Valspar Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from this year. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Cooperhead last year was 70.23, and it was the 29th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Despite high winds of up to 22mph on Friday and winds of 6 to 12 the other days, the course played easier making 2022 the easiest it has played in its history. Historically the course seems to be getting easier. In 2021 the course played to a 70.96 average and was the 20th hardest course that year. The weather was good, yes the course saw winds of up to 15 mph every day except for Saturday, which was a great day, and the winds were only 8 mph. Now the Cooperhead course is a very demanding course, the 70.96 average was the first time the course played under par since 2012, when perfect weather brought the scoring average below par at 70.73. In 2019 (no event in 2020), the scoring average was 71.98, making Cooperhead the 6th hardest course to score on in 2019. In 2018 the scoring average was 71.97, and again it was the 6th hardest course to score on in 2018. What makes the course so hard is the winds that would blow up to 30 mph making the course really hard. In the wind, the course is a bear, look at 2015, when the average was 72.88 (3rd hardest), in 2014, the average was 72.59 (10th hardest), and in 2013 it played at 71.91, making it the 12th hardest course on tour. So historically, the Copperhead is a challenging course to start with, add some wind, and it’s a brute. But when you have four days of calm conditions, the course can get easier as in 2017, during perfect conditions with little winds, the course played to a 71.51 scoring average, making it the 17th hardest course. Now in all those periods when the course played over par, the event was played in mid-March which is the windiest time for that area, but in 2021 it was an exception to the rule since the course was played in April and spilled over to the first of May. This week winds will be hard on Thursday, it will be at 10 mph. But after that, look for winds in the 17mph range, and with temperatures right around 75 each day, look for scoring to be a bit tougher this year.

In looking at the stats for Cooperhead for 2022, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet were important. So our first stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because of the fact that last year the course ranked 17th in Driving Accuracy and 14th in Greens hit. With winner Sam Burns (he has won it two years in a row) was T-38th in Driving Accuracy and T-13th in Greens in Regulation, so he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The previous year in 2021, the course ranked 20th in Driving Accuracy, and 6th in greens hit. Winner Burns was T-14th in Driving Accuracy and T-35th in Greens hit, so he was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Because of the COVID breakout, there was no event in 2020. So in 2019, the course ranked 11th in driving accuracy and 1st in greens hit. Paul Casey, who was the defending champion in 2019, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and in 2018 he was 6th. In 2019 Casey was 9th in driving accuracy (was T-68th in 2018) and was T-5th in Greens hit (was T-30th in 2019). Showing how important greens hit is, of the players who finished in the top five in 2019, 3 of them were in the top eight in greens hit. In 2018, of the top-4 in position, 3 of them were in the top ten of greens hit, with 4th place finisher Sergio Garcia finishing 2nd in greens hit.
Our second category is Proximity to Hole because it is important to get it close to the hole from the fairway. Last year the Cooperhead course ranked 28th in Proximity to the hole as Burns was T-34th. In the previous year, 2021, the course was 19th in Proximity to the hole, while Burns was 10th.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because of the importance of putting well at Innisbrook. The greens are average size and don’t have much undulation, so players can do well on the greens. Last year the field finished 45th in overall putting while Sam Burns ranked 8th in Strokes Gained Putting. In 2021 the winner, Burns, was 2nd in overall putting and 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, and he found the Cooperhead greens easy to maneuver. In 2019 the winner, Casey, was T-32nd in overall putting average, but in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 43rd (we always knew that Paul Casey putting is not the strong suit of his game). Overall in the last ten years, only Burns and Jordan Spieth were the only good putters to win.
Last, we have Par Breakers, as the course was the 18th hardest course on tour last year in Par Breakers. Our winner Burns made 20 birdies and two eagles, so he was T-1st in Par Breakers. In 2021 the Cooperhead course was the 11th hardest course on tour in Par Breakers. Burns was 1st in Par Breakers as his 21 birdies were 2nd best, and his 2 eagles were also 2nd best. Just about the same for 2019, the Cooperhead course was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour to get birdies and eagles. This is one of the reasons the scoring average is high, players can’t make a lot of birdies or eagles. In looking at the comparison, it had a 16.04 average in Par Breakers at Innisbrook, but the most productive course in 2019 in Par Breakers was La Quinta C.C. that average is 27.88 But Par Breakers wasn’t a problem for winner Paul Casey as he ranked T-1st in 2019 and T-5th in Par Breakers in 2018.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL ON THE COOPERHEAD COURSE:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication of players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course.

128 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year

Also, be aware that Keegan Bradley withdrew on Wednesday:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.