BlogValspar Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Boy, have we had a lot of things happen in the last week.  First, we had all the news of the new way they will schedule the 2024 season and what it will mean for the future of professional golf.  Then we had the excitement of Scottie Scheffler winning the Players in commanding fashion.  Now on Tuesday, we have the announcement that the USGA and the R&A will roll back the golf ball in 2026.  For some, they think this is something that should have happened decades ago when distance started getting out of wack.  But for others and golf ball manufacturers, this is a terrible day.  I have to wonder what this means for everyday golfers, will they continue to play the ball they are used to, or will they feel obligated to play the game like the pros do, even if it means losing 20 to 30 yards.  The big thing about this will be making golf courses on the PGA Tour play much harder.  The days of players slugging it out as far as possible, and even if they get into rough, it’s no problem to wedge it onto the green.  With a loss of 20 yards, playing out of the rough with a seven or eight iron instead of a wedge will change attitudes, which could bring back accuracy in golf.  It means very little to me since I don’t play much golf, but if I were a regular Saturday player, I would not be happy losing 20 yards.  If they are going to change the way golf is played, why don’t they approve five balls and make them tournament balls in which players have a choice of just five golf balls?  We know this was a possibility, especially 20 years ago when solid core balls became the rage because of how long players could drive them.  Guess it will be interesting to see how the manufacturers feel.  If I were the CEO of Titleist, the number one ball, I could be a bit perturbed that these changes could create those on the PGA Tour to play with another golf ball.  There is going to be a comment period of about six months before the ruling parties make the changes official for January of 2026.

Now pertaining to Valspar, many of the top players in the field played well at the Players.  Justin Suh, Justin Rose and David Lingmerth were T-6th.  Also, Adam Hadwin and Denny McCarthy finished T-13th.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Valspar Championship

This will be the 22nd Valspar Championship, with the first one played in 2000.  The Valspar was the first full-field PGA Tour event held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open was played between 1930 and 1964.

The tournament was formally called the Tampa Bay Classic and then changed in 2003 to the Chrysler Championship.  Chrysler dropped out in 2006, and PODS took over sponsorship and got an added boost with the advent of the FedEx Cup series and the transfer of the Players Championship to May.  So in 2007, just six months after the close of the 2006 event, the tournament moved into its new March date. But that didn’t last long, as with a change of management at PODS; they left after the 2008 event.   The power of the PGA Tour shined through as Transitions Lens, an optical lens manufacturing company whose headquarters are in the Tampa Bay area, came to the rescue with a four-year deal. Unfortunately, that deal ended after the 2012 event.  They got EverBank to write off some of the expenses in 2013, but for 2014 got their sixth and present sponsor Valspar, a company who is a paint and coatings manufacturer.  The 2001 event didn’t happen because of the 9/11 tragedy.

When the tournament first started in 2000, it was the first time that a full PGA Tour event was held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open,  held between 1930 and 1964.  The course was the home of the mix-event JCPenney Classic, which ended in 1999.

Now the event doesn’t have much history, which is a problem for attracting a great field.  But the Innisbrook Copperhead course is a hidden gem on the PGA Tour and one that gets players’ attention.  Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses like Bay Hill.

Course information:

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Palm Harbor, Fl.
• 7,340 yards     Par 36-35–71
• The course has a 76.8 rating and a slope rating of 144 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay there.  It also sells local memberships.
• The course has 63 bunkers and eight water hazards, of which six holes have water in play for the professionals.
• Larry Packard designed the Copperhead course, which opened in 1974.  It was restored in 1999, two years after Westin Inc. purchased it. The goal of the restoration project was to regain the shot values and still challenge today’s longer-hitting PGA Tour players when Innisbrook hosts PGA Tour events. The plan involved refurbishing all 18 greens, restructuring many of the bunkers, removing some trees around the greens to improve air movement and sunlight, and clearing out undergrowth between fairways. The length of the golf course is the most visible change from 7,087 to 7,230 yards by the addition of tournament tees on five holes.  Since then, minor renovations have added another 110 yards to the course, bringing the final yardage to 7,340.
• So from day one in 2000, the Copperhead course has the reputation of being a fantastic, fair course that many of the players enjoy.  As I said before, you can’t overpower the Copperhead course, and by no coincidence, players that hit it long usually take this week off.  So the course demands hitting fairways and avoiding the rough.  Another key to the course is the greens. They are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour because of the grain on the greens.  Last year the field finished 45th in overall putting average with only five courses better, meaning players can make putts on this course.  The 2022 winner was Sam Burns, who was 8th in Strokes Gained putting, so good putting is key.  Some other great putters that have won the Valspar include Jordan Spieth, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, and last year’s winner Sam Burns.
• More Proof of the toughness of the course, in the history of this event, only 72 times has a player shot four under-par rounds, with 13 doing it last year and seven players doing it in 2021.  Before the last time was Tiger Woods in 2018.  Taking it a step further, only 22 times has a player shot four rounds in the 60s, last year seven players did it, and in 2021 three, Sam Burns, Cameron triangle, and Viktor Hovland did it.  Before that, the last time a player shot four rounds in the 60s was in 2012.  We must understand that mother nature is one of the factors of this stat.  The winds of March seem to show up each year this event is played, and this is why the course has played over par every year between 2012 and 2019.  Because of the perfect weather and lack of wind, the last two years have made the course play to an average of 70.96 in 2021 and 70.23 last year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Copperhead Course:

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, data from the 2022 Valspar Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from this year. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Cooperhead last year was 70.23, and it was the 29th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Despite high winds of up to 22mph on Friday and winds of 6 to 12 the other days, the course played easier making 2022 the easiest it has played in its history. Historically the course seems to be getting easier. In 2021 the course played to a 70.96 average and was the 20th hardest course that year. The weather was good, yes the course saw winds of up to 15 mph every day except for Saturday, which was a great day, and the winds were only 8 mph. Now the Cooperhead course is a very demanding course, the 70.96 average was the first time the course played under par since 2012, when perfect weather brought the scoring average below par at 70.73. In 2019 (no event in 2020), the scoring average was 71.98, making Cooperhead the 6th hardest course to score on in 2019. In 2018 the scoring average was 71.97, and again it was the 6th hardest course to score on in 2018. What makes the course so hard is the winds that would blow up to 30 mph making the course really hard. In the wind, the course is a bear, look at 2015, when the average was 72.88 (3rd hardest), in 2014, the average was 72.59 (10th hardest), and in 2013 it played at 71.91, making it the 12th hardest course on tour. So historically, the Copperhead is a challenging course to start with, add some wind, and it’s a brute. But when you have four days of calm conditions, the course can get easier as in 2017, during perfect conditions with little winds, the course played to a 71.51 scoring average, making it the 17th hardest course. Now in all those periods when the course played over par, the event was played in mid-March which is the windiest time for that area, but in 2021 it was an exception to the rule since the course was played in April and spilled over to the first of May. This week winds will be hard on Thursday, it will be at 10 mph. But after that, look for winds in the 17mph range, and with temperatures right around 75 each day, look for scoring to be a bit tougher this year.

In looking at the stats for Cooperhead for 2022, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet were important. So our first stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because of the fact that last year the course ranked 17th in Driving Accuracy and 14th in Greens hit. With winner Sam Burns (he has won it two years in a row) was T-38th in Driving Accuracy and T-13th in Greens in Regulation, so he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The previous year in 2021, the course ranked 20th in Driving Accuracy, and 6th in greens hit. Winner Burns was T-14th in Driving Accuracy and T-35th in Greens hit, so he was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Because of the COVID breakout, there was no event in 2020. So in 2019, the course ranked 11th in driving accuracy and 1st in greens hit. Paul Casey, who was the defending champion in 2019, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and in 2018 he was 6th. In 2019 Casey was 9th in driving accuracy (was T-68th in 2018) and was T-5th in Greens hit (was T-30th in 2019). Showing how important greens hit is, of the players who finished in the top five in 2019, 3 of them were in the top eight in greens hit. In 2018, of the top-4 in position, 3 of them were in the top ten of greens hit, with 4th place finisher Sergio Garcia finishing 2nd in greens hit.
Our second category is Proximity to Hole because it is important to get it close to the hole from the fairway. Last year the Cooperhead course ranked 28th in Proximity to the hole as Burns was T-34th. In the previous year, 2021, the course was 19th in Proximity to the hole, while Burns was 10th.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because of the importance of putting well at Innisbrook. The greens are average size and don’t have much undulation, so players can do well on the greens. Last year the field finished 45th in overall putting while Sam Burns ranked 8th in Strokes Gained Putting. In 2021 the winner, Burns, was 2nd in overall putting and 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, and he found the Cooperhead greens easy to maneuver. In 2019 the winner, Casey, was T-32nd in overall putting average, but in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 43rd (we always knew that Paul Casey putting is not the strong suit of his game). Overall in the last ten years, only Burns and Jordan Spieth were the only good putters to win.
Last, we have Par Breakers, as the course was the 18th hardest course on tour last year in Par Breakers. Our winner Burns made 20 birdies and two eagles, so he was T-1st in Par Breakers. In 2021 the Cooperhead course was the 11th hardest course on tour in Par Breakers. Burns was 1st in Par Breakers as his 21 birdies were 2nd best, and his 2 eagles were also 2nd best. Just about the same for 2019, the Cooperhead course was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour to get birdies and eagles. This is one of the reasons the scoring average is high, players can’t make a lot of birdies or eagles. In looking at the comparison, it had a 16.04 average in Par Breakers at Innisbrook, but the most productive course in 2019 in Par Breakers was La Quinta C.C. that average is 27.88 But Par Breakers wasn’t a problem for winner Paul Casey as he ranked T-1st in 2019 and T-5th in Par Breakers in 2018.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL ON THE COOPERHEAD COURSE:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication of players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course.

128 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year

Be aware that Keegan Bradley withdrew on Wednesday:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all of the player stats for the Valspar

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 99 have played at least once in the Valspar.  Here are the players with the most under-par totals at Valspar since 2010:

• Sam Burns is 38 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Luke Donald is 35 under in 42 rounds, playing 11 years
• Webb Simpson is 25 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Justin Thomas is 24 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Justin Rose is 21 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Jason Dufner is 18 under in 40 rounds, playing 11 years
• Davis Riley is 17 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Matthew Nesmith is 16 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Matt Fitzpatrick is 14 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Jimmy Walker is 12 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Wesley Bryan is 12 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jordan Spieth is 10 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Kevin Streelman is 10 under in 32 rounds, playing 10 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Adam Hadwin is 9 under in 22 rounds, playing 7 years
• Austin Smotherman is 8 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Doc Redman is 8 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Denny McCarthy is 7 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Nate Lashley is 7 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Brandon Wu is 6 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Harry Higgs is 5 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Joel Dahmen is 5 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Greyson Sigg is 4 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Hank Lebioda is 4 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jhonattan Vegas is 4 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Michael Gligic is 4 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Gary Woodland is 3 under in 34 rounds, playing 11 years
• J.T. Poston is 3 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Kramer Hickok is 3 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Sam Burns is 38 under, playing 4 years (-9.5)
• Justin Thomas is 24 under, playing 5 years (-4.8)
• Wesley Bryan is 12 under, playing 3 years (-4.0)
• Doc Redman is 8 under, playing 2 years (-4.0)
• Denny McCarthy is 7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Luke Donald is 35 under, playing for 11 years (-3.2)
• Justin Rose is 21 under, playing 7 years (-3.0)
• Webb Simpson is 25 under, playing 10 years (-2.5)
• Joel Dahmen is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Jordan Spieth is 10 under, playing 5 years (-2.0)
• Jimmy Walker is 12 under, playing 7 years (-1.7)
• Jason Dufner is 18 under, playing 11 years (-1.6)
• Adam Hadwin is 9 under, playing 7 years (-1.3)
• Hank Lebioda is 4 under, playing 3 years (-1.3)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $10,900
• Jordan Spieth – $10,600
• Sam Burns – $10,200
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,000
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
• Justin Rose – $9,600
• Keegan Bradley – $9,400 (Withdrew on Wednesday)
• Denny McCarthy – $9,300
• Adam Hadwin – $9,200
• Brian Harman – $9,100
• Davis Riley – $9,000

This is a tough tournament to gauge for many different reasons.  First, it’s not one of those events that, historically, players attend, a perfect example of that is Jordan Spieth, who won the tournament in 2015 but didn’t play in it the last couple of years.  Then you have the question of if Sam Burns could win his third Valspar in a row.  This is very rare, Burns is trying to become the 10th man to three-peat at an event since World War II.  Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller, and Gene Littler are those who have three-peated since World War II. Steve Stricker is the most recent to achieve back-to-back-to-back wins. He won the John Deere Classic in 2009-11. So the odds for Burns are very long.

Then you have the weather, historically winds play havoc with scoring, this week, look for the winds to play havoc.

But the most critical problem of this event is that historical data may not help things because the elements change yearly, and players don’t participate every year.  So it’s important to see which players seem to produce a lot of offense every time they play.   As you can see in the chart up above, our top players do give a lot of offense, so it will be an interesting week

So let’s look at our top players, first off is Justin Thomas at $10,900.  He says he likes the course, and it’s one that he can score on.  Last year he finished T-3rd, so you have to think if he is going through the effort of playing, he feels good about his game.  The good news is Thomas has made the cut in all of his 8 PGA Tour starts in 2023, but since finishing 4th at Phoenix, was T-20th at Genesis, T-21st at the Palmer, and T-60th at the Players.  Because of the high cost and the fact that he just hasn’t been sharp, he is a no for me. Jordan Spieth, at $10,600, is also a no.  Yes, he won the Valspar in 2015, but since was T-18th in 2016 and missed the cut the last time he played the Valspar in 2018.  Spieth shows signs of glory but always seems to screw it up with a poor shot and a run of poor putting.  The latest sign of inconsistency was last week at the Players, he shot a third-round 66 but then finished with a 72 to finish t-19th.  Sam Burns, at $10,200, is the two-time defending champion and someone I can’t back.  He did finish T-6th in Phoenix, but has not played well this year including missing the cut at the Genesis and Palmer, before finishing T-35th at the Players.  Matt Fitzpatrick, at $10,000, is a thought, he was T-5th last year at the Valspar.  But his game has not been sharp, after finishing T-7th at the Sentry TofC, he missed cuts at Pebble, Genesis, and last week at the Players.  So avoid him.  Tommy Fleetwood, at $9,800, was T-16th last year, but he has struggled with his game in 2023.  Since the beginning of the year, in early January, in six starts, his best finish was T-20th at Genesis.  Last week at the Players was in contention going into the final round but shot 76 to drop to T-27th.  Justin Rose, at $9,600, is our first pick on this list, he has played well at the Valspar in 11 starts and was T-5th twice in 2011 and 2018.  We like that he was contending at the Players last week, finishing T-6th.  He also had momentum on his side with his Pebble win a month ago.   Denny McCarthy, at $9,300, does make sense. He has played at the Valspar three times and in 12 rounds only been over par twice.  Was T-9th in 2019, what I like about Denny is his good putting.  That goes a long way in this event, he has knocked on the door several times without a victory, and this week could be his time for glory.  Adam Hadwin, at $9,200, is also a good pick, he won at the Valspar in 2017 and was T-7th last year.  Has had a lot of good events this year, including finishing T-13th at the Players last week.  Brian Harman, at $9,100, is a no for me.  Yes, he was T-5th last year, but in eight Valspar starts only made three cuts.  His game hasn’t been good since he was T-2nd at the RSM, so take a pass on him.  Davis Riley, at $9,000, because he was runner-up last year at the Valspar.  He was T-8th at the Honda but has missed the cut in four of his last six starts, so he is a no for me.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  Going back to the 2010 Valspar, it’s a look on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Valspar starts:

• Sam Burns made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,200.
• Wesley Bryan made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Kramer Hickok made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• J.B. Holmes made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• David Lingmerth made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Luke Donald made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Jason Dufner made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Justin Thomas made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,900.
• Jordan Spieth made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
• Patton Kizzire made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Russell Knox made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Zach Johnson made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Lucas Glover made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Justin Rose made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
• Jimmy Walker made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Webb Simpson made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Rory Sabbatini made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Justin Suh at $8,900, is not a bad choice.  He has never played at Valspar, but I like how well his game has been lately.  Was T-5th at the Honda, T-24th at the Palmer, and T-6th at the Players.  Have to think he will continue the good run.  Gary Woodland at $8,600, is not a bad thought, he won at Valspar in 2011 and has been inconsistent during 2023 but shows some promise finishing T-9th at Houston and Genesis.  Brandon Wu at $8,500, is also a possibility.  He was T-33rd in his first Valspar start last year and since finishing T-2nd at Pebble, has had mixed results, including a T-14th at the Honda and T-19th at the Players.  Ben Griffen at $8,400, is also a thought, has never played in the Valspar but has had a pretty good year.  His last three starts was T-21st at the Honda, T-14th at the Palmer, and T-35th at the Players.  Another Valspar rookie is Victor Perez at $7,800, he has only played in three events in 2023, winning Abu Dhabi.  He is the type of player if he gets on a roll is hard to beat.  Akshay Bhatia, at $7,500, is playing in his first Valspar after winning a temporary spot on the PGA Tour for 2023.  He was 2nd in Puerto Rico, and many say he will be a force on tour real soon

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Will Gordon at $7,500 is a good buy. Playing in the Valspar for the first time, he made the cut in all of his three Florida events, and was T-54th last week at the Players.  Pierceson Coody at $7,400 is a good buy, he has played well in the last month, including winning at Panama on the Korn Ferry Tour.  He was T-14th at the Palmer.  David Lingmerth at $7,300, is a very savvy choice and one that will do you well.  He has played four times at the Valspar, and despite his best finish being T-27th, making cuts at Valspar is important.  But what I like most about him, his career has not been great since winning the 2015 Memorial, but he has fought back and can be on the cusp of some good things.  He was T-10th at the Honda, T70th at the Palmer, and T-6th at the Players, so he is playing well on a course he can do well on.  Ryan Gerard at $7,300, is also a good bet, he was 4th at the Honda and T-11th in Puerto Rico, he is close to getting temporary status on the PGA Tour, and that could come this week.  Eric Cole, at $7,300, is another rookie that is playing this week because of his runner-up finish at the Honda.  Cole is on a hot streak and could continue it this week.  He was 2nd at the Honda, missed the cut at the Palmer, and was T-27th at the Players.  Matthew NeSmith at $7,200 is also worth a look at.  He was T-3rd last year at the Valspar, and even though he has missed cuts in three of his last four starts, the course is one that will help him.  Last is Luke Donald at $6,800, he has been off and on in 2023 as he gets ready to be captain at the Ryder Cup.  But what I like about Luke, he won the Valspar in 2012 and in 13 starts, only missed the cut once.  Last year he was T-16th at the Valspar.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valspar Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• In looking at the 21 champions of this event, 12 of them have this in common.  They were in the top-13 in greens hit.  Matter of fact, six of them were in the top five including 2019 champion Paul Casey who was T-5th in Greens hit in 2019.  Last year’s winner Sam Burns was t-13th. So it is crucial hitting lots of greens, and those that do, usually have an advantage

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• This event is one of the hidden gems on the PGA Tour.  Played on a great course,  one thing is for sure players respect the course and show up, of its past champions, all active players (except for Charl Schwartzel and Paul Casey) are in the field.  They played this event in October until 2007, and the change hasn’t made much of a difference other than the rough is a bit healthier now.
• Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses like Bay Hill a couple of weeks ago.  Stats that prove this is first driving distance averages, in 2022 the average of all the drives in the field was 278.8 yards, the 5th lowest on the PGA Tour.  Since 2005 it’s been in the bottom six every year as the shortest driving average course.  So it only makes sense that when you look at the champions, the only real long drivers were Gary Woodland in 2011 and Vijay Singh in 2004.  All the others were in the middle to back of the pack in the average driving distance, so this is the one course that short hitters can do well on.

This chart shows how short the champions have been since 2005:

• Maybe it’s no coincidence that players that hit it long took this week off as of the top 20 in the driving distance stats for 2023, 12 are in the field this week.

Brandon Matthews-2nd, Cameron Champ-4th, Wyndham Clark-5th, Jhonattan Vegas-T-6th, Matti Schmid-8th, Gary Woodland-9th, Trevor Cone-10th, Byeong Hun An-12th, Trey Mullinax-15th, Kyle Westmoreland-17th, Sam Burns-18th, and Joseph Bramlett-20th.

• Florida is always windy this time of year, but this week may not be that bad.
• All the par 5s are within reach of the average player, and though the course is over 7,300 yards, it won’t present much of a problem. Look for lots of par 5 greens to be hit in 2. The average of all the champions on the par 5s is just a notch under 9 under   In 2012 & ’13, both Luke Donald and Kevin Streelman were 9 under on the four par 5s, while in 2014, John Senden was 7 under.  Jordan Spieth played the par 5s at 7 under in 2015, and Charl Schwartzel was 9 under on the 5s in 2016.  In 2017 Adam Hadwin played them at 6 under par, in 2018 Paul Casey was 8 under, but he was the tournament’s best 15 under par in 2019. In 2021 Sam Burns was 15 under, and last year 10 under on the par 5s.
• Look at all these facts, and you can conclude that good ball strikers rule the roost at Innsbrook.  This is not your typical Florida type of course, because the fairways are tight, and the rough will be tall.
• The last seven winners have gone on to have great seasons as they have finished the year of their win inside the top-30 in FedEx Cup standings, with 2010 champion Jim Furyk and 2015 champion Jordan Spieth winning the FedEx Cup title.

Weather is always of interest, especially the forecast of wind that makes the course play hard.  The weather is not going to be as good as the other events on the Florida swing.  Thunderstorms could be a problem on Saturday, and the rest of the days will be under partly cloudy skies.  Players won’t like the winds blowing between 15 and 20 mph each day.