Valero Texas Open Key Fantasy Stats

Valero Texas Open

March 30th – April 2nd, 2023

TPC San Antonio (ATT Canyons)

San Antonio, TX

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,438

Purse: $8.9 million

with $1,602,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
J.J. Spaun

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from last year’s Valero Texas Open (won by J.J. Spaun), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at TPC San Antonio last year was 71.76, and it was the T-17th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2021 the scoring average was 72.48, the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The event was not played in 2020 due to COVID-19, but in 2019 the course played to a 71.24 average and was the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In the decade the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. Previously the course had played hard. In the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is the winds; the area is notorious for having winds. Last year it was windy all four days. On Friday, they had gusts up to 27 mph. Back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and lack of winds. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot around tougher than in 2019, as it ranked 12th. In 2017 the course played to a 72.85 average, the 10th hardest in 2016, the course to a 72.21 average, and the 17th hardest course. In 2015, with challenging conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on Tour. So we can see, TPC San Antonio can be a brute between it being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So weather is always important for this week, and looking at the long-range forecast.

we can see it will be pretty good with temperatures in the mid to high 80s each day and no rain. Now the winds will blow between 9 and 15 MPH, with Friday having winds of 13 mph and Sunday at 11 mph, which will be challenging for the players. Essential to see the hour-by-hour winds because it sometimes gives an advantage to those that don’t have the brute of the winds.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the most challenging courses the Tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is important. Last year it ranked 26th out of 36 courses in driving distance(all 14 drives measured). So with an average drive of 296.9 years, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. Last year’s winner, J.J. Spaun, will go down as one of the shortest hitters to win in this event. His average drive was 291.0 yards, and he ranked 56th (72 made the cut)/ In 2021, Jordan Spieth was T-15th in this stat as his average drive was 297.7 yards. In looking at the past winners of this event since it’s been played at the Canyons course in 2010, only three of the ten winners have been in the top ten in driving distance. Going further in looking at the list of winners, they have many short hitters winning this event. Between 2017 and 2019, the three champions, Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. Last year’s champion J.J. Spaun ranked 136th in all drives in 2022, so long hitters don’t rule the roast at this venue.
So you may think accuracy is essential, but on the other end of the spectrum, that’s not the case, either. Of the last eight winners going back to 2014, only two champions were in the top-25 of driving accuracy, and that was last year’s winner J.J. Spaun who was T-9th, and 2019 winner Corey Conners who was T-7th in his victory.
Still, you can see those results in fairway accuracy. The course was 8th last year with a 53.44 average and 11th in 2021 with a 55.03 average. It was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average, it was 19th on Tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so it’s crucial to place drives in the fairway.

But one of the keys is hitting greens. Last year the course ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation, while in 2021, the course was 9th in Greens in Regulation. In 2019, the course was 13th in greens in regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high, probably because of all the wind. Yes, the greens have been very tough to hit. In 2017 it was 3rd, in 2016, it was the 15th hardest. In 2015, it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on Tour, and then between 2012 and 2019, all the winners were in the top-17 in greens in regulation, with 2019 winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat. But now we may be seeing this trend broken. Last year J.J. Spaun ranked T-16th in greens hit with 48 of 72. The same happened in 2021. Jordan Spieth ruined this stat as he ranked T-57th in Greens in Regulation, the worst performance of a winner at TPC San Antonio. Despite that, our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Despite not hitting many greens, last year’s winner Spaun was 5th, and the 2021 winner Spieth was 3rd in this vital stat as the field made it the 24th hardest previous year and 11th hardest on Tour in 2021. In 2019, the course ranked T-7th, as winner Corey Conners was 2nd. In 2018 the course ranked T-6th in greens hit, with the winner Landry ranking 1st while 2017 champion Kevin Chappell ranked 2nd in this stat, 2016 winner Charley Hoffman was 10th in this stat, and 2015 winner Jimmy Walker was 3rd. So we can see why this is a big stat.

Like we have seen the last few weeks on Tour, you have to scramble well if you miss fairways. But that didn’t happen last year, as TPC San Antonio ranked 31st while Spaun was 57th. In 2021, TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd, while Spieth was 4th. In 2019 TPC San Antonio ranked 43rd in scrambling out of 49 courses meaning that players tended to get it up and down more than any other Tour events. Now for winner Conners, he was terrible in this stat, ranking 70th and only getting it up and down 30.77% of the time. In 2018 TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd in scrambling on Tour, meaning that the pros could get up and down when missing greens, but winner Andrew Landry was 2nd in scrambling, getting it up and down in 15 of the 19 greens he missed. So we will have to see if this stat holds up this year.

Another essential item in doing well is putting. Last year the course ranked 30th in making putts inside 10 feet, with an average of 88.78% of putts made. Winner Spaun showed off how good his putting can be as he was T-7th in this stat, making 63 of 67 putts inside ten feet. The same in 2021 as the course ranked 11th in making putts inside 10 feet, with an average of 87.11% of putts made. Winner Spieth showed off how good his putting can be as he was T-5th in this stat, completing 66 of 71 putts inside ten feet. In 2019 the course ranked 19th in making putts inside 10 feet with an 87.82 average, while Conners lacked in this stat, ranking T-50th, making only 65 of 75 putts. In 2018 the course ranked 10th in making putts from ten feet, with an 86.82 average. Again, looking at our winner Landry’s profile, he ranked T-10th in this stat, completing 66 of 72 putts from ten feet and in.

Last is birdie average. Last year, players averaged making 3.55 birdies per round, ranking 36th on Tour. Winner Spaun made the most birdies of anyone with 23. Now it’s hard to imagine, but in 2021 the players only averaged making 3.30 birdies per round (rank T-16th) as Spieth made 24 birdies and was 1st. In 2019 3.68 birdies per round were made by the field as Corey Conners was first making 29 birdies for the week. In 2018 the course averaged 3.41 birdies per round. That ranked it 12th on Tour, while Landry won, making 21 birdies for the week, a 5.25 average.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a great barometer on how players games are from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023, with 120 of the 144 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.