BlogValero Texas Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Many will wonder if this is nothing more than a good time to take a week off.  Despite having a great sponsor, this event hasn’t been a marquee stop on the PGA Tour for years, and for many they will continue the tradition this week. It doesn’t matter when it’s played, in September, in April, or the week before the Masters, it’s hard to get marquee players to this event.  Kind of a shame, the course is good and is an excellent test in getting the ball in the fairway and on the greens, which players will be doing next week at the Masters.  Maybe the problem is something simple like the players don’t like the course, or perhaps the wind, which always seems to be around in this event, is a turn-off for players.  The last thing in the world they want to do is play in wind and screw up their swings before a major.  But of the 144 in the field, only 10 are going on to Augusta National (last year it was 23).  So with one spot being given to the winner of the Valero, odds are great that someone will be added to the Masters field on Sunday.

Winning a major the week after winning on the PGA Tour

We talk about this all the time when the majors come around.  Is it good for a player to participate the week before?  Now in most cases that player is trying to get ready to play in a major.  The last thing most of these players think about is winning, of course, they want to get their games ready and don’t want to spend the energy it takes to win a week too early.  Last year was a perfect example, Rory McIlroy played in the tournament but missed the cut.

Now in the history of the majors going back to 1950, only six times has a player won the week before winning a major.  Here is the list:

• Rory McIlroy – Won WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2014 PGA Championship
• Tiger Woods – Won WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2007 PGA Championship
• Phil Mickelson – Won BellSouth Classic, followed by the 2006 Masters Tournament
• Sandy Lyle – Won Greater Greensboro Open, followed by the 1988 Masters Tournament
• Lee Trevino – Won the Canadian Open, followed by the 1971 British Open
• Art Wall – Won the Azalea Open, followed by the 1959 Masters Tournament

Who is the hottest player in the game, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, or Rory McIlroy

Have to say all three can say they are the hottest based on their play in the last six months. But going into the Masters, we have to say it’s Scheffler. Since finishing T-3rd at the BMW Championship in August, Scheffler has played in 13 events and has only been out of the top-ten three times. Buts since winning the WM Phoenix just about two months ago, he was T-12th at the Genesis, T-4th at the Arnold Palmer, Won the Players, and was 4th at the Match Play. The key to Scheffler’s excellent play is consistency, Since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, he has played 24 rounds and shot in the 60s 19 times. Only once did he score an over-par round, the 73 in the final round of the Arnold Palmer. Sure Scheffler lost both his semi and consolation matches, but he still has to be the hottest player on the planet.

As for Rory McIlroy, he too has played well with two wins in the last six months and was T-2nd at the Arnold Palmer and 3rd at the Match Play. Some say we can’t call him a “hot” player since he missed the cut at the Players. But since then, we have found out that Rory was in a seven-hour-long meeting days before the start of the Players, and he was dealing with driver problems brought on by overuse of his driver. Now Rory never complained about this, but by his schedule, at the Match Play, you can see that he won’t allow this drain to affect his game. Of anyone going into the Masters, Rory has the added strain of trying to win the Grand Slam at the Masters, plus his absence of not winning a major since 2014 also adds to the anxiety. I think that Rory has been a bit unlucky. A perfect example was his play at St. Andrews in the British Open last July. Rory played well for four days, but Cameron Smith shooting 30 on the back nine on Sunday stopped Rory from winning. The same with his play at the Masters last year. After opening up with a pair of 73s, he shot a final round 64, which got him with three of Scheffler. In the eight years since he won the PGA Championship in 2014 for his last major, he has been in the top-five nine times and been runner-up twice. In all cases, it’s been one round that has derailed him. Rory roared out of the post in the PGA Championship last year at Southern Hills with a first-round 65. But he followed it up with a 71-74-68 to finish 8th. Same at the U.S. Open, he shot 67-69 but had a third-round 73, making it impossible to win. He ended with a 69 in the final round to finish T-5th.  So we must wait and see if Rory can play a perfect 72 holes of golf in a major.

Many are also worried about Jon Rahm, who after winning three events on the west coast and finishing 3rd at Phoenix and T-7th at the Farmers, many thought that Rahm would be the guy. Since winning at the Genesis, he was T-39th at the Palmer, forced to withdraw after one day of the Players due to a stomach ailment. He also didn’t fare well at the Match Play, losing two of his three matches. But I have to say, chalk it up to playing in Florida. His game doesn’t mesh with “The Sunshine State,” as we can see over the years that Rahm can’t play in Florida. I usually would bruise this off, saying that Rahm will get it together at the Masters. But last year, when he played poorly on the west coast swing and Florida, the poor play continued at the Masters, with him finishing T-27th. The problem I see with Rahm is the same problem other great players at a young age had, life. Look at how great Jordan Spieth was, and then he got married, had a kid, and his game cooled down. I feel that Rahm, who just had his second child, could have a dilemma between maintaining a great game and having a life with a family. So I don’t expect much out of Rahm at Augusta. We just have to wait and see.

Max Homa is the one person I feel will surprise us, and he isn’t in the talk of hot players. In the last three months, Homa has been T-3rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, won the Farmers, T-39th in Phoneix, 2nd at Genesis, T-14th at the Palmer, T-6th at the Players, and T-9th at the Match Play. In a way, he is one of the hottest players in golf. Many don’t use this stat, but of those that won the Genesis Open, 20 of them have also won the Masters. In the last 20 years, players like Mike Weir, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Dustin Johnson have won on both Riviera and Augusta National. Both courses have different characteristics and logistics. Still, players that have done well at Riviera have done well at the Masters. This tradition started when Byron Nelson won the Masters in 1937 and then won at Riviera. Gosh, Sam Snead won at Riviera in 1945 and then at Augusta in 1949. Hogan won two L.A. Opens at Riviera and the 1948 U.S. Open at Riviera, then won twice at Augusta. So if you want to place a great bet, put some money on Max Homa for the Masters. You can get Homa at +2500 at Draftkings, and many books have Homa at 30 to one, a lot better than the odds for Scheffler and McIlroy, which are both about 7 to one.

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is a historic tournament; it’s the 6th oldest professional tournament in golf worldwide, the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour, and the longest held in the same city. This is the 101st anniversary of the first one played in 1922 at Brackenridge Park. Robert MacDonald won that one, and in 1923 Walter Hagen won. The list of winners is good. Hagen, Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, and Sam Snead won. Arnold Palmer won three in a row between 1960 and 1962. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for the Valero Texas Open host courses, the event was predominantly hosted by the Brackenridge Park Golf Course, the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, and Oak Hills Country Club between 1995 and 2009, The Resort at La Cantera. Twelve years ago, they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, part of a two-course project.

Always known as a place where pros can go to score low on, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. In the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, Al Brosch became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for the lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under also was a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open. But at TPC San Antonio, not many records are broken as the course is very tough.

Course information:

• TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks Course
• San Antonio, Tx.
• 7,438 yards     Par 36-36–72
• AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains, Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens and Bandera in the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay on the path, and it’s members.
• The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour.  It has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.
• The scoring average of the field at TPC San Antonio last year was 71.76 and it was the 17th hardest course on tour.  TPC San Antonio has been played on since 2019
• There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move was financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which had been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood.  The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,438 yards and a par 72.  It was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted.  The course opened in 2009 and is one of the ten TPC courses that will be used on the PGA Tour this season.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in TPC San Antonio.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from last year’s Valero Texas Open (won by J.J. Spaun), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at TPC San Antonio last year was 71.76, and it was the T-17th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2021 the scoring average was 72.48, the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The event was not played in 2020 due to COVID-19, but in 2019 the course played to a 71.24 average and was the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In the decade the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. Previously the course had played hard. In the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is the winds; the area is notorious for having winds. Last year it was windy all four days. On Friday, they had gusts up to 27 mph. Back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and lack of winds. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot around tougher than in 2019, as it ranked 12th. In 2017 the course played to a 72.85 average, the 10th hardest in 2016, the course to a 72.21 average, and the 17th hardest course. In 2015, with challenging conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on Tour. So we can see, TPC San Antonio can be a brute between it being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So weather is always important for this week, and looking at the long-range forecast.

we can see it will be pretty good with temperatures in the mid to high 80s each day and no rain. Now the winds will blow between 9 and 15 MPH, with Friday having winds of 13 mph and Sunday at 11 mph, which will be challenging for the players. Essential to see the hour-by-hour winds because it sometimes gives an advantage to those that don’t have the brute of the winds.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the most challenging courses the Tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is important. Last year it ranked 26th out of 36 courses in driving distance(all 14 drives measured). So with an average drive of 296.9 years, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. Last year’s winner, J.J. Spaun, will go down as one of the shortest hitters to win in this event. His average drive was 291.0 yards, and he ranked 56th (72 made the cut)/ In 2021, Jordan Spieth was T-15th in this stat as his average drive was 297.7 yards. In looking at the past winners of this event since it’s been played at the Canyons course in 2010, only three of the ten winners have been in the top ten in driving distance. Going further in looking at the list of winners, they have many short hitters winning this event. Between 2017 and 2019, the three champions, Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. Last year’s champion J.J. Spaun ranked 136th in all drives in 2022, so long hitters don’t rule the roast at this venue.
So you may think accuracy is essential, but on the other end of the spectrum, that’s not the case, either. Of the last eight winners going back to 2014, only two champions were in the top-25 of driving accuracy, and that was last year’s winner J.J. Spaun who was T-9th, and 2019 winner Corey Conners who was T-7th in his victory.
Still, you can see those results in fairway accuracy. The course was 8th last year with a 53.44 average and 11th in 2021 with a 55.03 average. It was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average, it was 19th on Tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so it’s crucial to place drives in the fairway.

But one of the keys is hitting greens. Last year the course ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation, while in 2021, the course was 9th in Greens in Regulation. In 2019, the course was 13th in greens in regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high, probably because of all the wind. Yes, the greens have been very tough to hit. In 2017 it was 3rd, in 2016, it was the 15th hardest. In 2015, it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on Tour, and then between 2012 and 2019, all the winners were in the top-17 in greens in regulation, with 2019 winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat. But now we may be seeing this trend broken. Last year J.J. Spaun ranked T-16th in greens hit with 48 of 72. The same happened in 2021. Jordan Spieth ruined this stat as he ranked T-57th in Greens in Regulation, the worst performance of a winner at TPC San Antonio. Despite that, our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Despite not hitting many greens, last year’s winner Spaun was 5th, and the 2021 winner Spieth was 3rd in this vital stat as the field made it the 24th hardest previous year and 11th hardest on Tour in 2021. In 2019, the course ranked T-7th, as winner Corey Conners was 2nd. In 2018 the course ranked T-6th in greens hit, with the winner Landry ranking 1st while 2017 champion Kevin Chappell ranked 2nd in this stat, 2016 winner Charley Hoffman was 10th in this stat, and 2015 winner Jimmy Walker was 3rd. So we can see why this is a big stat.

Like we have seen the last few weeks on Tour, you must scramble well if you miss fairways. But that didn’t happen last year, as TPC San Antonio ranked 31st while Spaun was 57th. In 2021, TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd, while Spieth was 4th. In 2019 TPC San Antonio ranked 43rd in scrambling out of 49 courses meaning that players tended to get it up and down more than any other Tour events. Now for winner Conners, he was terrible in this stat, ranking 70th and only getting it up and down 30.77% of the time. In 2018 TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd in scrambling on Tour, meaning that the pros could get up and down when missing greens, but winner Andrew Landry was 2nd in scrambling, getting it up and down in 15 of the 19 greens he missed. So we will have to see if this stat holds up this year.

Another essential item in doing well is putting. Last year the course ranked 30th in making putts inside 10 feet, with an average of 88.78% of putts made. Winner Spaun showed off how good his putting can be as he was T-7th in this stat, making 63 of 67 putts inside ten feet. The same in 2021 as the course ranked 11th in making putts inside 10 feet, with an average of 87.11% of putts made. Winner Spieth showed off how good his putting can be as he was T-5th in this stat, completing 66 of 71 putts inside ten feet. In 2019 the course ranked 19th in making putts inside 10 feet with an 87.82 average, while Conners lacked in this stat, ranking T-50th, making only 65 of 75 putts. In 2018 the course ranked 10th in making putts from ten feet, with an 86.82 average. Again, looking at our winner Landry’s profile, he ranked T-10th in this stat, completing 66 of 72 putts from ten feet and in.

Last is birdie average. Last year, players averaged making 3.55 birdies per round, ranking 36th on Tour. Winner Spaun made the most birdies of anyone with 23. Now it’s hard to imagine, but in 2021 the players only averaged making 3.30 birdies per round (rank T-16th) as Spieth made 24 birdies and was 1st. In 2019 3.68 birdies per round were made by the field as Corey Conners was first making 29 birdies for the week. In 2018 the course averaged 3.41 birdies per round. That ranked it 12th on Tour, while Landry won, making 21 birdies for the week, a 5.25 average.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a great barometer on how players games are from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023, with 120 of the 144 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to see the stats of all players at the Valero Texas Open

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 97 have played at least once at TPC San Antonio in the Valero Texas Open since 2010:

• Charley Hoffman is 71 under in 46 rounds, playing 12 years
• Matt Kuchar is 40 under in 40 rounds, playing 10 years
• Corey Conners is 35 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Kevin Streelman is 33 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Martin Laird is 31 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Ryan Moore is 29 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Si Woo Kim is 28 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Chris Kirk is 26 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Ryan Palmer is 22 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• Lucas Glover is 20 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Dylan Frittelli is 19 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jimmy Walker is 18 under in 40 rounds, playing 12 years
• Kevin Chappell is 17 under in 33 rounds, playing 10 years
• Andrew Landry is 13 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Rickie Fowler is 13 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Richy Werenski is 11 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Matthias Schwab is 9 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Trey Mullinax is 9 under in 11 rounds, playing 4 years
• Nick Taylor is 7 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Aaron Rai is 6 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Brendon Todd is 6 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Beau Hossler is 5 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Matt Wallace is 5 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Patton Kizzire is 5 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Adam Schenk is 4 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Chad Ramey is 4 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Padraig Harrington is 4 under in 17 rounds, playing 5 years
• Greyson Sigg is 3 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• J.J. Spaun is 3 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• Lanto Griffin is 3 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Adam Long is 2 under in 8 rounds, playing 3 years
• Nate Lashley is 2 under in 8 rounds, playing 3 years
• Zac Blair is 2 under in 11 rounds, playing 4 years
• Byeong Hun An is 1 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 1 under in 5 rounds, playing 2 years
• Roberto Diaz is 1 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Corey Conners is 35 under, playing 4 years (-8.8)
• Dylan Frittelli is 19 under, playing 3 years (-6.3)
• Charley Hoffman is 71 under, playing 12 years (-5.9)
• Ryan Moore is 29 under, playing 5 years (-5.8)
• Lucas Glover is 20 under, playing 4 years (-5.0)
• Kevin Streelman is 33 under, playing 7 years (-4.7)
• Si Woo Kim is 28 under, playing 6 years (-4.7)
• Rickie Fowler is 13 under, playing 3 years (-4.3)
• Matt Kuchar is 40 under, playing 10 years (-4.0)
• Martin Laird is 31 under, playing 9 years (-3.4)
• Chris Kirk is 26 under, playing 8 years (-3.3)
• Andrew Landry is 13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
• Richy Werenski is 11 under, playing 4 years (-2.8)
• Matt Wallace is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Patton Kizzire is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Trey Mullinax is 9 under, playing 4 years (-2.3)
• Ryan Palmer is 22 under, playing 12 years (-1.8)
• Kevin Chappell is 17 under, playing 10 years (-1.7)
• Greyson Sigg is 3 under, playing 2 years (-1.5)
• Jimmy Walker is 18 under, playing 12 years (-1.5)
• Brendon Todd is 6 under, playing 5 years (-1.2)
• Nick Taylor is 7 under, playing 6 years (-1.2)
• Lanto Griffin is 3 under, playing 3 years (-1.0)
• Beau Hossler is 5 under, playing 5 years (-1.0)
• Adam Schenk is 4 under, playing 4 years (-1.0)
• Padraig Harrington is 4 under, playing 5 years (-0.8)
• Adam Long is 2 under, playing 3 years (-0.7)
• Nate Lashley is 2 under, playing 3 years (-0.7)
• J.J. Spaun is 3 under, playing 5 years (-0.6)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 1 under, playing 2 years (-0.5)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,900
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,500
• Rickie Fowler – $10,200
• Corey Conners – $10,100
• Taylor Montgomery – $9,900
• Si Woo Kim – $9,700
• Davis Riley – $9,500
• Chris Kirk – $9,300
• Matt Kuchar – $9,200
• Ryan Fox – $9,000

With a weak field, that means DraftKings has to take guys that are very overpriced.  A perfect example is Tyrrell Hatton – at $10,900 and Hideki Matsuyama at $10,800.  Picking Hatton or Matsuyama at that price is like paying for a ride on the Titanic, not a great move.  Both are trying to prepare for the Masters, and Matsuyama seems to hurt himself at the Match Play.  So happy picking, but remember this week, the favorites are probably not worth the money.

So let’s look at the top of the barrel and have to say that Tyrrell Hatton at $10,900 is drastically overpriced.  Yes, he was 2nd at the Players and T-4th at the Palmer, but he has never played this course, and I don’t think it suits his game, so he is a no.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,500 is a big no, yes he was 5th at the Players Championship, but he was hurt last week at the Match Play.  Despite him being a good tee-to-green player, his record in this event is not great, so pass on him.  Rickie Fowler at $10,200 is way overpriced, he should be at $8,500.  In three starts at TPC San Antonio, his best finish is T-17th, yes feel he may get into the top-25 but not at this price.  Corey Conners at $10,100 is worth talking about, he has won at TPC San Antonio and hasn’t played that badly.  But again, when you think of the price, best to pass on him.  Taylor Montgomery at $9,900 is another price too high, never played in this event and has been struggling a bit since finishing 5th at the American Express over two months ago, he is a no.  Si Woo Kim at $9,700 is our first possibility. His record is very solid in this event, he was T-4th in 2019, T-23rd in 2021, and T-13th last year.  Key to his game is great tee-to-green play which we saw with his victory at the Sony Open.  Waialae, which is the home of the Sony is a lot like TPC San Antonio, so he is our first yes.  I don’t understand the pricing of Davis Riley at $9,500.  He has only played once in this event and was T-63rd last year.  He had a few good events in April/May, but since his T-4th at the Colonial last year only has one top-ten since, T-8th at the Arnold Palmer.  Think he will make the cut and get you 70 or so points, but not worth the high cost.  Chris Kirk at $9,300 is worth a thought or two, he was T-8th at TPC San Antonio in 2018, was T-6th in 2021, and T-35th last year.  He did win at the Honda and was 3rd in Palm Springs and Hawaii, so we have to think he is ok, but again priced high.  Matt Kuchar at $9,200 is a yes, I don’t think he will win but feel he will make the cut and has four top-tens at this event, including a runner-up last year.  His game is sharp for this course, and he showed a lot of spunk last week at the Match Play, getting to the round of 16.  Ryan Fox at $9,000 is a no, has never played in this event, and even though he will make the cut and score you 60 or so points, not worth the cost.

Here is our feature, which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  Going back to the 2010 Valero Texas Open, it’s a look at who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Valero Texas Open starts:

Corey Conners made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,100.

Dylan Frittelli made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.

Kevin Streelman made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.

Ryan Moore made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.

Lanto Griffin made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.

Matt Kuchar made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.

Charley Hoffman made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.

Martin Laird made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.

Si Woo Kim made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.

Beau Hossler made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.

Brendon Todd made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.

Padraig Harrington made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.

Andrew Putnam made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.

Ben Martin made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.

Lucas Glover made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

Ryan Palmer made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.

Richy Werenski made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

Chris Kirk made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.

Troy Merritt made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.

Chesson Hadley made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.

Kevin Chappell made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.

Jimmy Walker made 8 cuts in 12 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

Rickie Fowler made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,200.

Cameron Champ made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.

Nick Taylor made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

Byeong Hun An made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.

Stewart Cink made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.

Joseph Bramlett made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.

Michael Thompson made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.

Brice Garnett made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.

Brian Gay made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, I like defending champion J.J. Spaun at $8,900.  He played this course well last year, and for 2023 he has had some good finishes like T-5th at the Sentry T of C, and T-9th last week at the Match Play.  I have always liked the consistency of Ben Griffin who is $8,700. In 16 starts in 2023, he has made 14 cuts, and even though he has never played in this event, but think he is worth the money.  Matt Wallace is $8,500 and had a career-changing experience last week.  With the win in the Dominican Republic, he can now play full-time on the PGA Tour.  Is he going to be tired, possibly.  But he did finish 3rd in this event in 2021, so he knows how to play well at TPC San Antonio.  Thomas Detry at $8,400 has been one of my favorite picks in 2023.  Other than missing the cut at the Players, he has always come through and produced a good amount of DraftKings points  He was T-8th last week at the Corales, he is playing for the first time in the Valero.  Cam Davis at $8,300 is also worth a look at, after a terrible stretch of five missed cuts, he was T-6th at the players and won two of three matches at the WGC-Dell last week.  Adam Schenk at $8,200 did finish T-7th in this event in 2019, his last start was 2nd at Valspar. Hopefully, he can keep the good vibes going.  Nicolai Hojgaard at $8,000 is also worth a look, never played in this event but has a very good run going, in his last seven starts has five top-13 finishes, including a 2nd at the Corales last week.  Nick Taylor at $7,600 is also a person to look at, he has played well the last two weeks, including a 2nd at Phoenix, T-10th at the Valspar, and T-31st at the Match Play.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Sepp Straka at $7,400 is good for the price, and has had some top-tens at Honda (T-5th) and Sanderson Farms (2nd).  Will Gordon at $7,200 is worth the price, he makes a lot of cuts, the same with Nate Lashley at $7,200 and Ben Martin at $7,100.  Kevin Streelman at $7,000 is your best shot of success, in eight Valero starts has made eight cuts, was T-8th in 2018, and 6th in 2019.  Normally I don’t like someone that comes into an event with four missed cuts, but Charley Hoffman at $7,000 has made 15 of 16 cuts at the Valero, including seven top-ten finishes, and was 2nd in 2021.  Akshay Bhatia at $7,000 is also worth the price, he was 2nd in Puerto Rico and T-24th last week at Corales.  One person that could be worth it is Kazuki Higa at $6,900.  He is the best player in Japan, over for the Masters.  His last three starts were T-13th at the International Series Oman, T-11th at the Thailand Classic, and T-4th at the Hero Indian Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• For the regulars of past Valero Texas Opens, 13 years ago was the start of a new era here.  For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice, and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience as Leonard has not finished better than T30th in eight tries, while Johnson missed the cut in 2010 and last year.   In looking at the performance stats from 2010 through 2021, hitting greens seemed to be the key for many in the top ten. So a combination of that tells us that a player needs to hit lots of greens and putt well.  In looking at the ten winners at TPC San Antonio, all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011 ranked T40th in greens hit in 2017, Kevin Chappell ranked T-36th in putts in 2019 Corey Conners ranked T-30th in putts and in 2021 Jordan Spieth was T-57th in greens hit).

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: With the course being new in 2010, it made sense with wins from inexperienced winners.  It was a mixed bag, with inexperienced players like last year’s winner J.J. Spaun, Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry in 2018, Kevin Chappell won in 2017, Charley Hoffman won in 2016, and Jimmy Walker won in 2015 and 2014 winner Steven Bowditch.  But we have also players with winning records like Jordan Spieth winning in 2021, Corey Conners winning in 2019, Adam Scott winning in 2010, and Ben Curtis in 2012, so the players should know the course by now but look for a non-marquee guy to win.
• Since TPC San Antonio joined the PGA Tour in 2010, it has never been out of the top 20 of toughest courses on tour Until 2019, when it ranked 28th because of the perfect weather and lack of wins.   Last year it played to an average of 71.76.  But it was a brute again, in 2021 it the scoring average was 72.48.
• A pretty unique trend at the Texas Open is that 3rd round leaders tend to rule the roast.  Since 1988 the 3rd round leader has won 24 of the 34 tournaments so if you are looking for a neat bet with someone, bet the 3rd round leader to win the championship.  Since moving to TPC San Antonio in 2010, seven of the 12 winners have led after the third round, Last year, J.J. Spaun went into the final round as a co-leader with three others, shot 69, and won.  In 2021 Jordan Spieth went into the final round tied for the lead with Matt Glover.  In 2019 Corey Conners was 2nd going into the final round and won.  In 2018 Andrew Landry and 2017 Kevin Chappell both led going into the final round.
• Look for the course to play tough, with thick rough, and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players.  Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio, of those that have finished in the top-3, only nine have been in the top ten in driving distance.  So this is a course that power won’t dictate a win.
• 16 previous Texas Opens have been decided in playoffs.  But as a bit of an oddity, the last playoff was in 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll.  That was the last year that LaCantera held the event, so in the 12 years of play, there haven’t been any playoffs yet at TPC San Antonio.
• The long-range weather forecast is expected to be good, with just cloudy conditions, but winds will blow between 8 and 14 mph.