BlogMasters Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Of course, and we are all getting sick of it, LIV golf.  In some respects, the fans really don’t care, it’s more of the media manufacturing this big riff and if the players will get together and fight over things.  Just like anything, these are adults that really don’t want to be part of the news on this.  Like life, people will generally hang out with people they like and associate with, so I see very few problems.  As for the Champions dinner on Tuesday night, I can’t say anyone wants to make an ass of themselves, so I think it will be very civil.  The one thing I can say about LIV golf, there are people who watch it because they think it’s different, but those numbers are dwindling.  I would have to say I can’t tell you the importance of a LIV golfer winning this week.  Many feel that LIV golf is like eggs being placed on a hot summer road, they are getting very overcooked and won’t be edible much longer.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

As for those that are favorites and those that have fallen out of that circle, I think that for months we have been talking a lot about Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm being big favorites.  Sure, McIlroy hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since CJ Cup in South Carolina in October.  Now he did win on the DP World Tour in Dubai in January, but he played great at the Palmer and Match Play.  But in looking at odd boards, these three are the favorites coming into this week.  After that, it’s a mix between Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Cameron Smith.

So many are wondering, who are the dark horses or the guys not talked about?

Here are five of my half-the-wall choices as guys to watch.

Brooks Koepka

He has been dominant since joining LIV golf last summer.  He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the 2021 Phoenix Open.  But in reality, he hasn’t really been healthy since winning the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.  Koepka has been plagued by multiple injuries, revealing he had “dislocated and shattered” his right knee, having torn his left patella tendon in 2019.  Along with that, he has nursed a left wrist injury.  Koepka’s treatment included withdrawing bone marrow from his hip and injecting it into his left wrist and then another session a month later of platelet-rich plasma injections.  He has gone through a stem cell procedure on his left knee after struggling with a partially torn patella tendon and numerous surgeries.  There are a lot of injuries on the PGA Tour, but other than Tiger Woods, nobody has been through the wringer like Koepka.

But it’s time to say that Koepka is finally pain-free and most of his problems with injuries are behind him.  He has won twice on the LIV tour, the last one coming in Orlando last week.  He feels he is hitting the ball great again, and his short game is coming around, so I have to say watch out for him this week.

Corey Conners

History tells us that a winner the week before a major is hard to duplicate the next week.  It hasn’t been done since Rory McIlroy won the 2014 WGC-Bridgestone and then the PGA Championship the next week.  For the Masters, it has been done three times, the last in 2006 when Phil Mickelson won the BellSouth and the Masters.  This brings us to Corey Conners, who won last week in Texas.  Corey shouldn’t be disregarded in winning the Masters because he was T-6th last year, T-8th in 2021, and T-10th in 2020.  I Think Conners has the game, and he is a dark horse you should think about.

Jordan Spieth

Sure, he missed the cut last year, which kind of shattered the assumption that every time Spieth tees it up in the Masters, he will be in contention.  Jordan has only been out of contention in the final round three times in his nine starts.  So Spieth has a special thing about Augusta Nationals.  But what I like about Jordan is a weird item.  You see, Jordan has won the last two Easters, in Texas in 2021 and in the RBC Heritage last year  And guess when Easter falls in 2023?  Yes, this Sunday, so if you believe in superstitions, you must bet a dollar or two on Jordan.  One last thing about Jordan, he is playing great right now.

Max Homa

He seems to play his best golf on the West Coast, then goes under the table and coasts through the rest of the season.  He has played in 161 PGA Tour events and has won $20.5 million.  53 of those starts are in events on the west coast, places like California, Hawaii, Arizona, and Nevada.  $11.8 million of that money has been won in those four states or more than half of his career earnings.  Four of his six wins are in those states, and it’s safe to say he plays his best in that state.  So when he ventures east, things don’t respond as favorably as on the west coast.  Sure, he has won twice at Wells Fargo, but he seems to love the poa and Bermuda of the West.  So what does this have to do with Max and Augusta?  His record at the Masters isn’t great, so why am I plugging Homa with two missed cuts and a T-48th?  There is a very quiet thing about Augusta National and Riviera Country Club.  You see 13 players, like Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Byron Nelson, Fred Couples, Tom Watson, Craig Stadler, Nick Faldo, Adam Scott, and Phil Mickelson, have won at both Riviera and Augusta National.  Homa has a great track record going at Riviera, his last four starts are 2nd, T-10th, win, and T-5th.  I think Homa is coming into his game and realizing that winning on the West Coast doesn’t make a career, he has to do it in the majors, and I have a feeling he will play a part this week.  We will see, but I will wager a dollar or two on Homa.

Justin Rose

He has played great at Augusta National.  In 17 starts, he has been in the top ten six times, and came within a playoff with Sergio Garcia to win the Masters.  Rose had this weird obsession as in four of those Masters, he was the first-round leader/co-leader, a rare feat.  Rose is the type of player who could surprise us, so don’t forget to put a dollar or two on him this week.

So is there anyone else?  Of course, how about past Masters winners Adam Scott and Patrick Reed? These guys can get hot and be in contention.  But I will not place a dime on any of them, they may get a top-ten, but they have very little chance of winning again.

Whom do I not like?

Short and simple, think Dustin Johnson is not 100%, he has had some back problems the last few months.

Also don’t think Cameron Smith will struggle.  Just think he isn’t sharp, and when you play full-time on LIV Golf, you aren’t going to be as sharp for a major because you don’t play enough.  Also, leary on Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, and Will Zalatoris, I think they won’t be firing on all cylinders due to cranky backs.

Masters rookies:

What about the Masters’ rookies? Could Fuzzy’s record be in danger?  Of the field of 88, there are just 16 Masters rookies.  Of those 16, I only see one with the possibility of winning Adrian Meronk, and that is a very long shot  Still, it will be a long week for those 16 Masters rookies.

Last but not least, the rookies:

There are seven of them, and my sentimental choice is the mid-amateur winner Matthew McClean.  He is an Irishman with a very interesting story, coming over to the United States with his buddy Hugh Foley to play together in the U.S. Mid-Amateur championship being played in Wisconsin.  They not only spent just about every moment together during the trip, but they both made it to the finals, with McClean winning 3 & 1.  This is something that only happens in fairytales. Of course, McClean has no chance of winning, and his goal is to have a great time this week and make the cut.

Of the other amateurs, look for Sam Bennett, Harrison Crowe, and Gordon Sargent to make the cut.

So buckle up and get ready for a wild week, the Masters will be exciting again.

Things you need to know about the Masters

This week will be the 87th edition of the Masters. It was played yearly except between 1943 and 1945 when the war suspended the championship.  It has been played at Augusta National every year, the only major played on the same course each year.

The Masters was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had always dreamed of having a U.S. Open played at Augusta National.  But with the hot summers in June, Jones approached the USGA with the idea of playing the Open at Augusta in April, but the USGA turned him down.  So, Jones and Clifford Roberts decided to hold their annual event beginning in 1934.  Roberts proposed that the event be called the Masters’ Tournament, but Jones objected, thinking it was too presumptuous.  The name Augusta National Invitation Tournament was adopted, and that title was used for five years until 1939, when Jones relented, and the name was officially changed.

Course information:

• August National Golf Club
• August, S.C.
• 7,545 yards     Par 36-36–72

While playing championship golf, Bobby Jones had always hoped that he would be able to build a championship golf course near his Atlanta home one day.  Upon his retirement after the 1930 U.S. Amateur, Jones set out to complete his dream.  In the 1920s, he met New York banker Clifford Roberts who helped Jones with his vision. After looking at several places, they both decided on Augusta, Ga., as the site provided the best weather in the winter months.  They scouted the area for a piece of land that, according to Jones, plans would utilize the natural shape and slope of the property to build the course.  Jones didn’t want a venue that relied on severe rough as a hazard and hoped that he could find a piece of property with a stream running through to build several holes around it for water hazards.  He also wanted to create a championship course that would be playable for the average golfer, using mounds and slopes as hazards instead of sand bunkers.

Also helping Jones and Roberts in their search was Thomas Barrett Jr. He knew of a piece of land in Augusta that he thought would be perfect for Jones’ dream course.  He recommended a piece of property called Fruitlands Nursery.  The land consisted of 365 acres, once an indigo plantation the family bought in 1857.  The man was Louis Mathieu Edouard Berckmans, who was a horticulturist by hobby.  Along with his son Julius Alphonse, an agronomist and horticulturist by profession, they formed a business in 1858 to import trees and plants from various countries.  It would be the first commercial nursery in the south, and they called it Fruitland Nursery. Even though Berchmans died in 1883, the business flourished. Many flowering plants and trees, including a long double row of magnolias, were planted before the Civil War, and today they serve as the club’s entrance on the property.  But Prosper’s claim to fame was that he popularized a plant called the azalea.

Upon Prosper’s death in 1910, the business stopped operation, and the heirs sought a buyer.  That buyer appeared in late 1930 when Tom Barrett first showed Jones Berchman’s nursery.  Upon seeing the property from what is now the practice putting green, Jones knew he had the perfect land for an ideal golf course.  He told Roberts and Barrett that he thought the ground had been lying there all these years, waiting for someone to come along and lay a golf course on it.

An option was taken on the property for $70,000, and it was decided to establish a national membership for the club, and Jones proposed Augusta National would be an appropriate name. Jones also agreed in the planning stage he wanted Dr. Alister Mackenzie of Scotland to serve as the course architect since the pair held similar views. Before coming to Augusta, Mackenzie had designed two courses in California – Pasatiempo and Cypress Point.  Jones played those courses after failing in the first round of the 1929 U.S. Amateur and fell in love with the courses and MacKenzie’s design.  So that was the main reason he got MacKenzie to help him.

Jones and Mackenzie completed the plans, and the construction started in July of 1931. Unfortunately, after the construction work was completed, Mackenzie died before Augusta National was entirely covered with grass. The course was finished and opened in December 1932 with limited member play. A formal opening took place in January of 1933.

Since the course opened, it has been changed several times in 87 years.  In 1934 the tournament nines were different and were changed for the 1935 event.  Also, the grasses have changed over the years between bent and bermudagrass, Today Augusta National’s tees and fairways are Bermuda grass, but they are overseeded each fall with ryegrass.  The greens are bentgrass, that gives them tremendous speed and smoothness.

The average green size at Augusta is 6,150 square feet, which is about the PGA Tour average. Water comes into play on five holes on the backside, with only 43 bunkers.

For the 2019 Masters, the 5th hole was lengthened.  The land purchase that they made many years ago allowed Augusta National to shut down Berkman’s Road, which the old 5th tee was up against.  So they could move the tee back 30 yards and now make the 5th hole an absolute monster.

When the players arrived last year, they noticed a couple of changes to three of the holes.  The par 4, 11th had a new tee that added 15 yards to the hole.  The tee is also to the golfer’s left of the old tee.  The fairway has been re-contoured, and several trees removed on the right side.  This change is not to make the hole harder but should make the fairway more obtainable off the tee.

The second change is to the par 5, 15th hole.  20 yards have been added to the hole, and the fairway was also re-contoured.  20 yards shouldn’t mean much for the players, for the long hitters will have to use a long iron to get home in two, but for the player that is average length off the tee, it may give them more of a decision if they want to hit the green in two.

The last change came on the par 4, 18th hole.  For the players, this is a bit strange, 13 yards have been added to the back of the tee, but they are saying it doesn’t mean a change in length to the hole.  Officals have changed due to more players driving it past the big bunker on the left side of the fairway.  But despite the 13 added yards, because of the dogleg right nature of the hole, it won’t add 13 yards.

With the changes, it adds 35 yards to the scorecard, bringing the total yardage up to 7,510.

Changes for 2023

Now for this year, the big change was to the 13th hole.  We have been told that this change was years in the making, and it took the purchase of some land from neighboring Augusta Country Club for it to happen.  We thought that it would happen last year, and it didn’t.  Now for this year, 35 yards have been added to the 13th hole.  This is a monumental change, one that for half the field means they won’t be able to go for the green in two.  For the other half, it will mean a longer shot into the green, meaning more of a challenge.  But for some of the really long hitters who have been using 3-wood off the tee for placement of the drive, they can now flair away with the driver and not worry about rolling through the fairway into the trees and the hazards that brings.  Will I think scores go up, probably a bit this year but remember, this change isn’t making the hole harder, it’s just making it not as easy.  Getting the ball on two is going to be two well place shots, and the days of going into the 13th green with a 7 or 6 iron on your second shot, those days are gone.

For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this course overview done by Masters.Com.

One last thing, the forecast for this week isn’t great.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Augusta National.

This is based on the most important stats for Augusta National, based on data from last April’s Masters, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
Last year’s Masters was played at its regular time in April for the second straight year. In April 2022, the course played to a 73.95 average and was the 3rd hardest course on the PGA Tour. This was back to normal. In April 2021, the course played easily to a 71.75 average, making it the 21st hardest course on Tour. The 2020 Masters was played in November 2020, postponed due to COVID. Now in the earlier 2020 Masters, the course was played entirely differently in November, and its 71.75 made it the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 (despite it historically being called the 2020 Masters, it was played in the 2021 PGA Tour season, so far 30 courses have been played). Even more relevant, it was only the third Masters in which the scoring average was below par and the lowest scoring average beating out the 71.87 field average in 2019, ranking the course the 16th hardest on the PGA Tour. When it returned to its original date in April of 2021, the scoring average was 73.06, and it was the 7th hardest course on Tour for 2021.

Looking at the weather for Augusta

I can see another round of weather playing a part in the championship. The bad news,right now on Monday looking at the long range forecast, each day will have showers and rain. The good news is that over all four days, the top wind speed with be 11mph on Friday, and the other three days will be between 7 and 8 mph. So the green coats of Augusta, even with SubAir under all the greens, will still not be the speed officials want them. Also, with the rain, the prospect of Augusta National playing fast won’t happen, so look for scoring to be on the low side. So the course will lose much of its bite, something it is famous for.

Does Augusta favor the bomber?

One thing that we have to look at is the claim that Augusta is great for long-hitters. That is partly true. Hitting it long does have its advantage, especially on Augusta’s par 5s. Dustin Johnson proved this in 2020 when he was 6th in driving distance on the measured holes with a 306.7 average. Where Johnson was able to shine was on the par 5s, he was 11 under, and only one player was better than him. Johnson took advantage of his length as he hit 60 greens in regulation, the best in the field. The following year, 2021, went back to the norm as Hideki Matsuyama hit an average of 288.8 yards and ranked 47th of those that made the cut. Despite Matsuyama hitting it much shorter, he still played the Par 5s in 11 under, the same as Johnson. Last year Scottie Scheffler ranked 16th in driving distance, and he was 8 under on the Par 5s, showing that both Matsuyama and Scheffler didn’t win because of length.
Now showing players that aren’t as long as Johnson, in 2018 and 2017, both winners Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia showed their advantage as they both ranked 6th in driving distance and played the par 5s in 7 under for Garcia and 13 under for Reed. But in looking at the past champions, it’s mixed with long hitters and short. The perfect example was in 2019. Tiger Woods ranked 44th in driving distance, the highest of champions since Jordan Spieth in 2015. Also, in 2016 and 2015. Danny Willett ranked 32nd in driving distance, while in 2015, Jordan Spieth ranked 52nd. But look at the top ten for the week in April of last year. Four of the top-11 were in driving distance. In 2021 five in the top-12 were in the top ten, in 2019, only 3, while in 2018, only 4, while in 2017, only 3 out of 10 while in 2016, 5 out of 14 while in 2015, only one of the 11 were ranked in the top-ten in distance, showing that there is more to Augusta than people think. They have been keeping stats at the Masters since 1980, and of the last 42 winners (Seve in 1980 had no stats), 19 winners were in the top 10, and only six were in the top-3. So we can say that hitting it long has advantages, but even short hitters win at Augusta. A perfect example is Zach Johnson winning in 2007 and ranked 57th in driving distance. On the par 5s, he didn’t hit any of them in two and still played the par 5s in 11 under, so length means very little.

We need to go back to the dark ages of stat keeping.

In looking at the stats, Augusta National doesn’t utilize stroke gain stats which we have been using more of, so we have to go back to the old fashion stats. The same in putting. They don’t have stats for the number of putts made inside five feet or ten feet, so looking at putting stats available at the Masters, they don’t tell the story. So in looking at the stats for Augusta National, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens, can scramble well, can avoid three-putts, and play well on the par 5s. So these are the four stats we pick for this week’s key course stats.

So which stats are important?

In looking at Augusta National last year compared to other PGA Tour courses, Augusta ranked 5th in greens in regulation (57.36). This was the lowest since it ranked 1st in 2007, and for the last ten years, its average rank is 12.6 has been a very consistent number for the last decade. As for importance, last year’s winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 5th, and the 2021 winner Hideki Matsuyama was T-10th. Of the 42 winners that have stats, 27 of them were in the top ten, with nine of them leading that stat. Jack Nicklaus in 1986 was 1st in Greens hit, and since then, only seven of them weren’t in the top 20. Patrick Reed in 2018 ranked 21st, which is a dramatic withdrawal because it was the 3rd highest rank in the previous 23 Masters champions going back to 1997. So we can see the importance of not only hitting greens but placing the ball on the greens to have the best putt since the greens are very severe in slope and break.

Our next category is scrambling, and last year the course ranked 4th while Scottie Scheffler ranked T-2nd. In 2021 the stat was again influential as the course ranked 9th while Hideki Matsuyama was 2nd. We know that in November 2020, Dustin Johnson was 4th in Scrambling. Tiger was on the other end of the spectrum in 2019, ranking T-50th. In 2018 Augusta was 5th on Tour while Reed was T-16th. The point is Augusta is one of the hardest courses to make par on when you miss the greens, so the winner better be able to get it up and down.

Our third stat to look at is three-putt avoidance at Augusta. The course was 4th as Scottie Scheffler was T-23rd (he had two, three putts, and one four putt over the 72 holes). The previous year, 2021, the course was 3rd while Hideki Matsuyama was T-33rd (He had four, three putts). In 2020 Dustin Johnson was T-5th (he had one three-putt all week), and in 2019 the course was the 6th hardest on Tour, while Tiger was T-22nd (only had two three-putts). In 2018 it played 5th hardest on Tour, while Reed only had two three-putts for the entire week and ranked T-13th. Oh, to show the importance of not three-putting, when Dustin Johnson defended his Masters title in 2021, he missed the cut by making six three-puts over just 36 holes. Oh, for those wondering who the last champion who went 72 holes without a three-putt, Jose Maria Olazabal accomplished that feat in 1999. Before that, Tiger Woods in 1997, Ben Crenshaw in 1995, and Olazabal had no three-putts for the week.

Our last category is par 5. The Par 5 average last year for the field ranked T-6th with a 4.78 average or 2.82 under for the week. Winner Scheffler was 8 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Cameron Smith was the best at 9 under). In 2021 Augusta ranked 4th with a 4.311 average. As for Matsuyama, he ranked T-2nd at 4.31 or 11 under for the week. In 2020 the course ranked 34th at 4.59 while Johnson played the par 5s in 11 under. In 2019 the course average was 4.58, and was T-33rd on Tour. In 2019, Tiger was 8 under for the week, which ranked T-27th. In 2018, Augusta was 4.70, and it was T-17th on Tour. Reed was 13 under for the week, which is the key to how he won. You look at the history of the Masters, the best is 15 under by five different players (Greg Norman in 1995, Tiger Woods in 2010, Ernie Els in 2013, Phil Mickelson in 2015, and Marc Leishman in 2020), and there were only five different players at 14 under so you can see that 13 under by Reed was a milestone, so playing the par 5s was very important in Reed’s victory. Since 1997 every winner has been under par on the par 5s except for Danny Willett, who played them in even par in 2016. But if you average out the winners in the last 25 years, they average 8 under, so you can see the importance of playing the par 5s well for the week.

So let’s take a more careful look at how the last eight champions became victorious.
Last year Scottie Scheffler was 5th in greens hit, T-2nd in scrambling, T-23rd in three-putt avoidance, and was 8 under on the par 5s. He dominated early and held on for the victory doing just about everything right.
In 2021 Hideki Matsuyama was T-7th in greens hit but 2nd in scrambling and had an average putting week, which is good for him. Matsuyama played the par 5s in 11 under, which was 4th best.
In 2020 Dustin Johnson did nothing wrong. It was probably the best overall display ever seen at the Masters. Of course, this claim does have an asterisk next to it since the tournament was played in November. That does make sense when you see the scores. What Augusta National prides itself on the course didn’t have the same bite it typically has. In November, 43 players were under par, and two of its biggest records fell. The first was the low 72-hole score. Dustin Johnson became the first player in history to break the 270 mark as he shot 20 under 268. Of course, records are meant to be broken, but the one record that probably stings the most is, for the first time in Masters history, someone shot four sub-60 rounds. What makes the record being broken even tougher to swallow is that the winner didn’t accomplish the record. Runner-up Cameron Smith will go into the record books with his rounds of 67-68-69-69. The Masters’ statistician was busy as 40 Masters records were broken and 14 were tied. So we can see that hopefully, the move back to April was well welcomed by those in charge of course setup.
Back to our roll call of recent winnings, in 2019, Tiger did it with his ironwork. He hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field. This helped him to make 22 birdies which were 2nd best.
In 2018, Reed did it with his putter. He had the least amount of putts and was the best in one-putts with 38. But playing the par 5s in 13 under put him over the top.
In 2017 Sergio Garcia won it with his ball striking. He was 2nd in fairways hits and T-2nd in greens hits. This allowed him to miss the rare putt here and there, but still enough for the win.
In 2016 Danny Willett was T-6th in greens in regulation. He was 1st in scrambling, T-2nd in three-putt avoidance, and 54th in par 5 average.
How about 2015 for Jordan Spieth. He ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 75% of his greens. He was T-10th in scrambling, T22nd in three-putt avoidance, and T-4th in Par 5 Scoring. One other essential item that won’t be on this list but you should have in the back of your mind is making lots of birdies, in 2015, Spieth led that stat making 28 birdies for the week, while Willett was T-16th making just 13 for the week.

Again, if a person can hit a lot of greens, scramble well on the ones he misses, and make a good share of putts, especially in the 4 to 10-foot range, he is a can’t miss to not only contend but possibly win.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is an excellent barometer of how good players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with tough shots to get it close, scrambling is essential. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some challenging places

*Three putt avoidance: Augusta has the toughest greens in the world to putt on. They only average 6,486 square feet, so they aren’t big or small, but they are sloppy, and you can face many ten-foot lag putts. So when you are 30 or 40 feet away, getting up and down in two putts is tough and essential.

*Par 5 scoring: This is the one place long hitters due have an advantage on, the par 5s. Three of the four are within reach of the longest hitters, and depending on how Augusta sets up the 8th hole, that could be easy or hard. But to win, it’s important to do well on the Par 5s.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023, with 50 of the 88 players having stats. One other thing, the Masters is not part of the PGA Tours shotlink program, so that you won’t see stats like Strokes Gained this week:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

#	Name	*Greens in Regulation	*Scrambling	*Three putt avoidance	*Par 5 scoring average	Total Rank All Categories	DraftKings Salary
1	Scottie Scheffler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	1	9	3	5	18	11100
2	Brian Harman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	23	7	30	17	77	6700
3	Tom Kim (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	12	10	44	45	111	7700
4	Tony Finau (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	11	23	78	7	119	8900
5	Jason Day (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	20	2	36	69	127	8700
6	Max Homa (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	34	6	33	55	128	9200
7	Jon Rahm (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	3	46	80	2	131	10800
8	Patrick Cantlay (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	6	42	88	1	137	9500
9	Xander Schauffele (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	50	64	20	12	146	9000
10	Sungjae Im (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	51	18	77	3	149	8100

Here is a link back to all the stats for the players

DraftKings tips

Of the 88 in the field, 72 have played at least once at Augusta National in the Masters.

*Here are the players with the most under-par totals at the Masters since 2010:

• Jordan Spieth is 44 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Justin Rose is 32 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Jon Rahm is 30 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Rory McIlroy is 30 under in 48 rounds, playing 13 years
• Dustin Johnson is 30 under in 40 rounds, playing 11 years
• Tiger Woods is 26 under in 36 rounds, playing 9 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 19 under in 42 rounds, playing 11 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 17 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Phil Mickelson is 17 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Tony Finau is 16 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Cameron Smith is 15 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Justin Thomas is 13 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Will Zalatoris is 12 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Corey Conners is 11 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Xander Schauffele is 11 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Jason Day is 11 under in 37 rounds, playing 11 years
• Brooks Koepka is 7 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Cameron Champ is 5 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Collin Morikawa is 5 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Sungjae Im is 3 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Keith Mitchell is 1 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Will Zalatoris is 12 under, playing 2 years (-6.0)
• Scottie Scheffler is 17 under, playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Jon Rahm is 30 under, playing 6 years (-5.0)
• Jordan Spieth is 44 under, playing 9 years (-4.9)
• Tony Finau is 16 under, playing 5 years (-3.2)
• Tiger Woods is 26 under, playing 9 years (-2.9)
• Justin Rose is 32 under, playing 12 years (-2.7)
• Dustin Johnson is 30 under, playing 11 years (-2.7)
• Cameron Smith is 15 under, playing 6 years (-2.5)
• Rory McIlroy is 30 under, playing 13 years (-2.3)
• Corey Conners is 11 under, playing 5 years (-2.2)
• Xander Schauffele is 11 under, playing 5 years (-2.2)
• Justin Thomas is 13 under, playing 7 years (-1.9)
• Cameron Champ is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Collin Morikawa is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 19 under, playing 11 years (-1.7)
• Phil Mickelson is 17 under, playing 12 years (-1.4)
• Jason Day is 11 under, playing 11 years (-1.0)
• Brooks Koepka is 7 under, playing 7 years (-1.0)
• Sungjae Im is 3 under, playing 3 years (-1.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Valero Texas Open, a total of 63 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,100
• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Rory McIlroy – $10,600
• Cameron Smith – $9,800
• Jordan Spieth – $9,700
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,500
• Justin Thomas – $9,300
• Max Homa – $9,200
• Collin Morikawa – $9,100
• Xander Schauffele – $9,000

Have to say that the Masters could be one of the hardest events to pick.  If you look at the 10 names above, 7 are great choices, with half being slam dunks to finish in the top five.  So you have to choose well in those below $8,400, and it’s very hard to pick once you get in the below $7,500 category.

I look at these prices, and my first thought is that they are more than fair.  The last thing you hate to see is a couple of overpriced guys in the $10,000 or above range, but that isn’t the case.  Maybe it is because the field is smaller, of course, there has to be a scale based on the number of players in the field.  So with the Master’s field at just 88, maybe this is the reason.

Another thing is one of the differences between the Masters.  Only 30 guys have a real chance of doing well, so you are limited in picks, so maybe that is why the prices are lower.  No matter we have to pick six great choices.  Before we start, the cost of $15 for the million-dollar game on DraftKings is the same as last year.  One thing that is important, with only 88 players in the field and the top 50 and ties making the cut, you better pick six guys that are around for four rounds.  This is the most important thing you have to do, you could pick five superstars, but that one crappy pick that missed the cut could cost you a lot of money.  Remember last year, Jordan Spieth missed the cut, in 2021, Rory McIlroy and defending champion Dustin Johnson missed the cut so stuff like that does happen.  On the list of our ten, the possibility of Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele are there, yes the odds are very high on that happening, but again how many folks thought that Jordan, Rory, and Dustin could miss the cut.

Scottie Scheffler makes a lot of sense at $11,100. He has won twice in the last couple of months.  He has some ok results, and in his last 12 starts been out of the top-12 just once, T-45th at the CJ Cup.  Still, he has to do the deed, and there is the pressure when you’re the top dog.  We saw it at the Match play when Scheffler missed a four-footer on the 2nd extra hole in his semi-match with Sam Burns.  With the miss, it opened the door for Burns to make birdie on the next hole and go on to win the Match Play.  Don’t see that happening as much this week, Scheffler has a one-in-three chance of winning, so we will see.  One reason he is worth the money is that in his last 31 starts, he averages just over 93 points per event, and in his last eight events has been over 80 points per event, you have to take him.  Jon Rahm at $10,800, is a risk because he has struggled the last three starts.  Still, he is solid in the Masters and does get a lot of DraftKings points, I worry that he may not be up to it, so I am passing on Jon.  Rory McIlroy at $10,600, is a go for me, yes he has struggled to win the Masters, and each year has to get harder and harder.  But remember this, Phil Mickelson struggle for 12 years on tour before he won his first major at the Masters at age 34.  Rory is 33, so there is still a lot more time, and frankly think he will be sharp this week.  Cameron Smith at $9,800, is a question mark.  Have always thought that the Masters would be the one major he could win.  Smith is not the greatest of drivers and struggles at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.  But with his great putting, that would help him at Augusta, that is why he has four top-tens in six starts.  But to putt well, you have to play consistently, and he has made like ten starts in the eight-plus months since winning the British Open.  On LIV, he won in Chicago but has struggled in his last eight starts.  Best to pass on him.  Jordan Spieth at $9,700, has been my choice all year to win the Masters.  Yes, his game has had peaks and valleys the last three months, but think his whole plan was to be ready for Augusta, and I think he will be in the running.  One worry, he sometimes struggles to make DraftKing money, but I still think he is a great choice this week.  Same with Patrick Cantlay at $9,500, he has had his peaks and valleys, but I think he is a solid player to choose from.  Justin Thomas at $9,300, is a no for me, just hasn’t played great in 2023 other than at Phoenix.  Max Homa at $9,200, I like him a lot and think he is ready to prove himself on the big stage of a major, and this will be a great week to prove that.  Collin Morikawa at $9,100, is a no just because he hasn’t played great lately and isn’t that great of a putter.  Sure, he was 5th last year, but I don’t think he can repeat that this year.  Xander Schauffele at $9,000, is a no.  Think his back could be an issue, the weather is crappy right now, it’s not that warm and very damp, which is not great for a person with possible back issues.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Masters on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Masters starts:

Adam Scott made 13 cuts in 13 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.

Tiger Woods made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

Justin Thomas made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.

Cameron Smith made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,800.

Jon Rahm made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,800.

Tony Finau made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.

Viktor Hovland made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.

Cameron Champ made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

Scottie Scheffler made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,100.

Collin Morikawa made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,100.

Bubba Watson made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

Hideki Matsuyama made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.

Jordan Spieth made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.

Rory McIlroy made 11 cuts in 13 starts for a 84.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.

Justin Rose made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.

Phil Mickelson made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.

Russell Henley made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.

Bryson DeChambeau made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.

Keegan Bradley made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.

Tommy Fleetwood made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.

Si Woo Kim made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.

Dustin Johnson made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.

Corey Conners made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

Xander Schauffele made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.

Patrick Reed made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

Billy Horschel made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.

Jason Day made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.

Kevin Na made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.

Brooks Koepka made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

Kevin Kisner made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, we have big no’s with Tony Finau at $8,900 and Dustin Johnson at $8,800.  As for Finau, he has struggled since finishing T-9th at Torrey.  His record isn’t great at Augusta, so those are good enough reasons to say no.  As for Johnson, he has not played well enough of late. Also, he showed possible back problems in January it’s best to pass on him.  Jason Day at $8,700, is a yes for me, his game has been sharp all year, the swing changes have been good, his putting is solid, and he is close to winning again, and it could be this week.  Cameron Young at $8,600, is a no for me.  Yes, he was runner-up at the Match Play, but he seems to have a top-five and then a lull for a few weeks before another good finish.  Just think this won’t be his week.  Sam Burns at $8,300, is a very good pick, he is playing great, and I can see it continuing.  Will Zalatoris at $8,200, is a no, I think the back will be a problem, yes a good record in two Masters starts, but he isn’t 100%, and with the poor weather think he will struggle.  Brooks Koepka and Corey Conners at $7,600, are stealing and should both be taken.  Both have played well at Augusta and come into the Masters in great shape and ready to do well.  Adam Scott at $7,500, will not win this week, but he will make the cut and earn a lot of points.  Remember this Scott is a perfect 13 for 13 in making cuts at the Masters since 2010.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Off the bat, everyone would like to think that Tiger Woods can win.  But we must remember he has played in only four events on the PGA Tour in over 862 days.  Tiger Woods is priced at $7,300, which is a lot of money for a guy who doesn’t play a lot.  But at the same time feel he will make the cut and do well for you, he is a great choice.  Patrick Reed at $7,300, makes a lot of cuts, so he is cheap at this price.  Just so damn hard to root for Reed. Kurt Kitayama at $7,100, is also good, great putter that has struggled with the driver in his first go at the Masters and could be successful.  Keith Mitchell at $7,100, is another great choice for making the cut and getting a lot of points.  The same with Chris Kirk at $7,100 and Sergio Garcia at $7,000.  Adrian Meronk at $6,400 is also a great choice, I think he has the game to do well at the Masters in his first go around.  Gordon Sargent at $6,100, is also a good choice, an amateur playing for the first time, he has the game to play well at Augusta and is the best amateur in the field. Think he is a slam dunk for the best price player to make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Masters:

The key stat for the winner:

• There are a few things that all winners at the Masters have in common.  First, it’s precise ball striking, like a Ben Hogan, length and power like Tiger Woods, deft touch with a putter on the steeply contoured greens like a Ben Crenshaw, and the mind and wisdom of a Jack Nicklaus.  All of these are what it takes to win the Masters.
• Precise ball hitting is a must. With steeply contoured greens, you have to position shots to the green in an area where you will set up an easy putt. That’s why players like Nick Faldo and Ben Hogan have five titles. If you look at the champions of the Masters, a poor putter usually doesn’t win.  Being able to avoid three putts is essential.
• Zach Johnson had six three-putts in 2007 and Bubba Watson in 2012 with four, which dents our theory about three putts.  In looking further back in history, both Vijay Singh in 2000 and Tiger Woods in 2001 had more in the year they won the Masters than the previous seven champions of the 1990s put together.  That doesn’t mean that we will have a new trend. I will bet that the winner this year has the least three putts of anyone else in the field. Last year Scottie Scheffler had two, three putts, and one four putts over the 72 holes. The year before, 2021, Hideki Matsuyama had four three putts. In 2020 Dustin Johnson only had one three-putt.  In 2019 Tiger Woods had two in his win.
• To show you how theories don’t work continually, look at the argument that says you have to hit it long to win at Augusta.  Yes, Tiger, Phil, and Vijay hit the ball long, but past champions like Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Zach Johnson, Mark O’Meara, and Ben Crenshaw could be the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour.  Gosh, look at Jordan Spieth in 2015, he ranked 52nd in driving distance at Augusta in his winning year.  No matter what, length is significant, look at Tiger Woods’s victory in 1997. Reaching par-5s with wedges is a considerable advantage over players hitting into the greens with long irons and woods.  But again, theories don’t sometimes work at the Masters. Look at Zach Johnson in 2007. He lay up on all the par 5s and played them in 11 under par.  With wet fairways and greens due to the weather, it brings in shorter hitters and gives them a chance.
• Stats are great, but in reality, they don’t mean much when it comes to picking a winner at the Masters.  Since 1993 the only real favorite to win the Masters was Tiger Woods, who won in 1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 & 2019, and Phil Mickelson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  How many folks placed a bet on 2019 winner Tiger Woods, or the year before with Patrick Reed or 2016 champion Danny Willett? I would say not many people. Still, players like Sergio Garcia in 2017, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Bubba Watson in 2014, and Adam Scott winning in 2013 weren’t a big surprise. But nobody would have thought that Bubba Watson would win in 2012, it was a big surprise for Charl Schwartzel in 2011, Angel Cabrera winning it in 2009, Trevor Immelman winning it in 2008, and Zach Johnson winning it in 2007.  Still, in the folklore of Masters champions, some surprise champions include Mike Weir, who won in 2003, and Vijay Singh in 2000.  Even more prominent surprise winners have been Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara, Bernhard Langer, and Ben Crenshaw, who came from out of the blue to win.  Still, one thing is certain; you must have a track record to win at Augusta.  The last time a non-winner from the PGA or European Tour won was back in 1948 when Claude Harmon, father of Butch, won his first and only individual title on the PGA Tour at the Masters.  As the old saying goes, records are meant to be broken, and who knows, maybe a non-winner will surprise us this week, but it’s doubtful.  So let’s see who could possibly be a “surprise winner” this year.  My first choice is Brooks Koepka, who nobody is even thinking of.
• I can say this, look at the top 30 or 40 players off the world rankings.  We hear it all the time how the best players seem to win majors.  If you go off the world rankings, Ben Curtis was 396 when he won the British Open in 2003, and Shaun Micheel was 169 when he won the 2003 PGA Championship.  At the Masters, you won’t find that kind of a winner, since 1988 there have been only two Masters champions not in the top 50, #56 Zach Johnson in 2007 and #69 Angel Cabrera in 2009.  In 2020 Dustin Johnson was #1, and in 2019 Tiger Woods was 12th going into the Masters, 2018 Patrick Reed was 24th in the rankings, in 2017, Sergio Garcia was 11th, in 2016, Danny Willett was ranked 12th going into the Masters while Jordan Spieth in 2015 was 4th going into the Masters.  In the 35 years of the world rankings, the average Masters champion ranked 14th.  We’ve seen six #1s win; 20 of the 34 winners were in the top ten the week before their victory. Last year Scottie Scheffler was number one, and in 2021 Matsuyama was 25th the week before his Masters win. So you can expect someone who is high in the world rankings to win this week.  Not harping on this, but we could have that trend broken if Brooks Koepka wins, he is 118th in the rankings right now.
• Last, experience and wisdom are important, that’s why Jack Nicklaus has six titles. The last player to win the Masters in his first start is Fuzzy Zoeller, who did it back in 1979.  As I said earlier, there are 5 first-timers this year on the PGA Tour, and only three are in the field (Adam Svensson, Kurt Kitayama, and Taylor Moore ), and it’s a stretch seeing one of them winning.  Experience is always important at the Masters so look for a winner, someone with a lot of experience.