BlogRBC Heritage Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

First of all, sorry that this is a bit late.

So what did you all think of the Masters?  

Have to say it’s nice to see Jon Rahm win his second major. He has been one of three players (Scheffler & McIlroy) that have played great in the last two years, and with Rahm’s Masters win, it makes him the top dog. I didn’t put much emphasis in my preview on him winning. After a great west coast swing in which he won three times, he didn’t play well. I chalk that up to Rahm not being able to play in Florida. His win at the Masters, after such a dominant west coast, solidifies my thought that Florida is not Rahm’s friend.

What did we learn at the Masters?

How good Jon Rahm is and shows how dominant he really is. Since winning the U.S. Open in 2021 at Torrey Pines, it was easy to say that Rahm won on a course he favors. He went to St. George the next week and finished T-3rd, but since has struggled in the majors in 2022. An old saying is that if you win a major, you’re not considered great until you win your second. Well, Rahm has done that.

His win was pretty significant when you realize that Rahm is the first European player to claim both the Masters and the U.S. Open. Rahm becomes the fourth Spaniard to win the Masters and he did it on his hero, Seve Ballesteros’ 66th birthday. It was also on the same date as the last victorious Spaniard, 2017 when Sergio Garcia won. Also, a bit of a strange omen, Masters caddies get their bib numbers based on the time the caddie registers. Rahm’s caddie Adam Hayes was the 49th caddie to register, getting the number 49 was another way of saying April 9th. For the week, Rahm was excellent in all parts of his game. He hit 48 of 54 fairways, tying Trevor Immelman for the best driving performance for a champion, which Trevor won in 2008. Rahm hit 52 of 72 greens, third-best in the field. On top of hitting many greens, of the 20 greens he missed, he got up and down on 16 of the 20. Putting has always been one of the challenging aspects of his game, and he showed it this week with four three-putts and a four-putt which came on his first hole on Thursday. Still, he made the putts when he needed them. A perfect example was Sunday morning when he was on the 7th green with a birdie putt. After Brooks Koepka missed his putt for par, Rahm made his birdie putt and then made good putts at 8 and 9. We can dive into hocus-pocus strokes gained here and there, but the bottom line in the clutch is that Rahm did what it took to win.

Brooks Koepka

If there is anyone on tour that reminds me more of a machine, it’s Koepka.  When he gets into this groove, sorry nobody can beat him, and Koepka was in that groove. For his first 42 holes, Koepka was that dominant player, he was 13 under par, and when he started Sunday morning on the 7th green with a ten-footer for par, he had a four-shot lead over Jon Rahm, seven shots over Sam Bennett, nine shots over Phil Mickelson and 11 shots over Jordan Spieth. Koepka was in the driver’s seat, and I feel if he had made that ten-footer for par at 8:33 Sunday morning, Rahm would have missed his putt, and I would be writing something entirely different. Brooks won four majors in a stretch of eight majors from 2017 through ’19. But there are those majors that Brooks let slip through his fingers. Like the 2019 Masters that Tiger won, he was in great shape until a poor tee shot at 12 in the final round led to a double bogey, Tiger beat him by a shot. Two months later, in the U.S. Open at Pebble, Koepka made birdie on four of his first five holes to catch Gary Woodland but played the rest of the day at one over. Woodland birdied 14 and 18 and beat Brooks by three shots. Then there was the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah when Brooks went mano-a-mono against Phil Mickelson in the final round. After making a birdie on the first hole to catch Mickelson, he made a double bogey at 2 and then four bogeys in a seven holes stretch between the 7th to 13th hole and finished runner-up, two back of Mickelson. A month later, at Torrey Pines, Koepka was tied for the lead going into the final nine, but with three bogeys on the back nine and Rahm finishing birdie-birdie, Rahm was four back. With his Masters flub no telling how many majors Brooks could own now. One thing for certain: I called it in the preview that I thought Koepka would win. The only problem for me and many others is that it’s hard to root for Brooks with his LIV golf connections. Many others said the same thing, Sal, I can’t pick someone I can’t root for.

The same with Phil Mickelson, who had his best event since winning the PGA Championship. During the week, Phil said his game was close, and sure enough, it was as if he shot a final round 65 to catch Koepka for 2nd place. But the big question, with LIV golf in the state that it’s in, with two feet in the grave, who will root for those players in a major?

You have Jordan Spieth. He may have had the best week of all. He made 21 birdies, the same as Koepka, while playing the par 5s in just seven under. Jordan was four under in his first eight holes and five under in his last 11 holes. But in between, he had a pair of doubles and eight bogeys in a sloppy week of golf. Augusta is one of those sweet spots for Spieth as he finished T-4th due to his bogey at 18. But in ten Masters starts, Spieth has six top-four finishes, so he loves the place.

Last but not least is another person that loves the place, Tiger Woods. I fear the end is near for Tiger. Between the wet conditions and cold weather, he looked terrible on Saturday, struggling and walking like a 90-year-old. You can see that his heart and mind are in it, but the wheels aren’t there, and we can’t see him ever winning again. I was told by a person close to the Woods camp that Tiger tried for hours to get ready for Sunday, but he couldn’t relieve any of the pain, forcing him to withdraw. It’s a shame to see a war horse like him breaking down.

Things you need to know about the RBC Heritage

This will be the 55th edition of the Heritage, which is now well-established thanks to the sponsorship deal with RBC nine years ago. It was a long haul with many anxious moments and rumors of its demise, but the tournament is now healthy again.

Harbour Town has been the site of the tournament every year.   In 1989 the Tour Championship was held at Hilton Head.

The first Heritage Classic was played to great fanfare in 1969, even though it was a “turkey” of an event. Initially, it would be a regular tournament on Hilton Head Island, giving away $45,000. But Charles Price, founding editor of Golf Magazine, talked to a few people, including Charles Fraser, who owned the new course Harbour Town, and suggested that he should apply for PGA Tour sanction instead of a small tournament. They scrambled around and raised the purse to $100,000, then got a date for the tournament on Thanksgiving weekend. Jack Nicklaus, who helped Pete Dye design the course, played and brought some friends, including Arnold Palmer, who went out and won the first Heritage Classic. Thanks to Palmer winning, they say it put the tournament on the map and helped create a beautiful tradition for a championship after its first year.

The Heritage Classic was played over Thanksgiving weekend in its first four years. It was moved in 1974 to September and then the next year to March. Between 1983 and 2019, it’s been played the week after the Masters, except for 2012, when it was two weeks after the Masters. Because of COVID-19, it was played in June, but for all the years after, it’s returned to its usual place after the Masters.

This year it’s a designated event, meaning the purse went from $8 million to $20 million, a drastic climb. Many will question if it’s fair to ask players to attend a big event the week before or after a major. The WGC-Bridgestone was always played before the PGA Championship and worked, but times are changing, and some may not want to play before or after a major. We see that Jason Day and Rory McIlroy have withdrawn, so the field has a stain to it.

Course information:

• Harbour Town Golf Links
• Sea Pines Resort, Hilton Head Island, S.C.
• 7,191 yards     Par 36-35–71
• Harbour Town Golf Links features a course rating of 75.6 and a slope rating from the back tees of 147. The tees, fairway, and rough are Celebration Bermuda Grass, as the greens are Poa Annua. The course is a resort course and can be played by the public. Last year Harbour Town was the 37th hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 69.14 average. One of the reasons it played so easily was the time of year it was played, and the weather was perfect with no wind.
• The course was designed and built by Pete Dye in 1969. Jack Nicklaus got his start in golf course architecture as he assisted Dye in designing and building Harbour Town.   The average green size at Harbour Town is 4,500 square feet, which means it has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. The course has 145 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes.
• Over the years, the course has changed very little change, in 2011, seven new teeing grounds were put in with an added yardage of 127 yards for the 2012 event, taking the course over the 7,000 mark to 7,099. The holes that yardage was added to were the 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16 & 18. In most cases, players didn’t use a driver, but holes like 16 with an additional 36 yards will force players to hit a driver. The same with 18, 20 yards has been added to a hole that will play to 472 yards.
• There were also some changes in some of the bunkers so that they are more in play, and the area around the second green got some work. Also, some trees that played havoc on those who hit it just off some of the fairways were removed, improving the sightlines.
• Two last things, in the summer of 2015, every blade of grass on the layout had been replaced – tees, greens, rough, practice facility. The irrigation system was also replaced with the latest technology, so it may be a bit for the players to get the course’s feel and get to know all of the rolls and breaks on the greens.
• Lastly, in 2016 Hurricane Matthew hit Hilton Head Island, and despite the power, other than debris and loss of trees, there was no long-range damage. We saw what mother nature could do to a golf course when we saw how heavy rains washed away the Greenbrier course, and they couldn’t play the Greenbrier Classic. The same at Houston, rain from a Hurricane put the Golf Club of Houston underwater, but it was back to normal when the Houston Open was played. Hilton Head, they were lucky. Yes, even today, players will notice a lack of trees seven years later, especially on holes near the bay like 16, 17, and 18.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in Harbour Town.

This is based on the most important stats for Harbour Town, data from last year’s RBC Heritage, and data from all the field players with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Harbour Town last year was 70.74, the 19th hardest course for the year. In 2021 the average was 70.33, and it was the 26th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2021 the average score was 69.14, making it the 37th hardest course on Tour. It’s the lowest scoring average the course has ever had since records were kept back in 1997. The reason probably is that the tournament was put back in June, and conditions were much different. In 2019 the scoring average was 71.17, ranked the 11th hardest course of the year. It was a half a shot tougher than in 2018 when he played to a 70.85 average. Weather is always a factor. Winds off the Atlantic make the course hard like it was in 2019, each day had winds over 10 mph, and on Friday, they had gusts up to 40 mph, and Saturday, 30 mph. After four days of cold and wet weather at the Masters, the news is good and bad. The good news is that after playing at Augusta with temperatures in the low 50s, temperatures will range from 73 to 76 degrees as the week progresses. But the bad news is cloudy skies on Thursday and Saturday, but thunderstorms on Friday and Sunday. So for a second straight week, the weather will become the narrative for the week, and winds will be manageable between 7 and 11 mph each day.

Despite the course being one of the best on the PGA Tour, the winners weren’t top-notch until Webb Simpson won it in 2020, Stewart Cink in 2021, and Jordan Spieth won last year. In 2019 C.T. Pan won, and since the victory, he has only finished in the top five twice, a T-3rd at the Charles Schwab, a month after winning at Hilton Head. Pan also finished T-3rd at the 2021 Honda Classic. Pan was 9th at the 2022 Genesis Invitational, but those were his only top-tens. Pan has struggled in 2023, with a best finish of 44th at the Bermuda Championship. He hasn’t played since Mayakoba last November.
In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira won, and he also has struggled in 95 PGA Tour events since. He has not finished in the top ten, with a best finish of T-11th in the 2021 Wells Fargo. For 2022 his best finish is T-12th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, his only top-14 of the season. In 2023 Kodaira had one top-25 finish, a T-16th at Zozo Championship. The same with 2017 winner Wesley Bryan. Since winning, he has played in 83 events and has only had eight top-25 finishes, the best a T-3rd in the 2017 John Deere Classic. To be fair to Bryan, at the end of 2018, he hurt himself and found out he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and at the end of January of 2019 had surgery which took a year to get better. Since coming back has played a limited schedule and struggled. In 2023 Bryan played in six events, with a 6th at Puerto Rico, but missing five cuts.

So winning the RBC Heritage has not been any launching pad to stardom on the PGA Tour. Not only has Pan, Kodaira, or Bryan not returned to the winner’s circle, 2015 champion Jim Furyk has not won on the PGA Tour. The same happened with 2020 winner Webb Simpson and 2021 champion Stewart Cink. One thing that is a fact for this event, with better scoring conditions, the course tends to get an inexperienced winner, as we have seen. Another factor we see, since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the schedule has been loaded with significant events week in and week out. Between now and the PGA Championship, there are only two powerhouse events, this and Wells Fargo, in three weeks. So a lot of players will be taking the next few weeks off. Because the RBC Heritage is a “designated event,” the field is excellent for this week as most of the marquee players are there.

So what will it take to win this week? Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America. It’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost overpowering. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2022, the course averaged 278.6 yards, meaning it was the 6th shortest of all the courses on Tour. Since it’s so low (The highest on Tour last year was TPC Scottsdale, 311.3 yards), players not only throttle it down on many holes, they lay up with three woods or long irons. So our first important stat is driving accuracy. You have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Last year the course ranked 35th (63.36%) in this stat compared to the others on Tour. Looking at past champions, seven of the last 14 were in the week’s top ten in accuracy. But that trend has changed as the last four and six of the previous seven have not even been in the top 30. Last year’s champion Jordan Spieth hit 36 of 54 fairways and ranked T-31st. 2021 champion Stewart Cink hit 31 of 54 fairways and ranked T-57th. 2020 champion Webb Simpson hit 33 of 54 fairways which ranked T-33rd. In 2019 C.T. Pan was terrible in this stat, as he hit just 29 of the 54 fairways and ranked T-59th, the worst of any champion since 1997. The year before, Satoshi Kodaira hit 42 of 56 and ranked T-4th.

For our next categories, in looking at the stats for Harbour Town, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens; Last year, it ranked 10th as 60.12% of the players hit the greens. Last year’s winner Jordan Speith hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-9th. In 2021, Harbour Town ranked 19th, as 60.12% of the players hit the green, as 62.12% of the players hit the greens. In 2020 it ranked 17th, in 2019 and in 2018, it ranked 6th on Tour. 2017 was a misnomer as it ranked 16th, while in 2016, it ranked 2nd on the Tour and was in the top-6 in five of the last eight years. In the previous 26 years, 14 of the champions ranked in the top ten, with six leading the category. Stewart Cink was 1st in the category in 2021, hitting 56 of 72 greens, the best of all the champions since 1997. 2020 winner, Webb Simpson, ranked T-12th and hit 53 of 72 greens. In 2019, C.T. Pan ranked 37th, hitting 42 of 72 greens, while in 2018, Satoshi Kodaira ranked T-7th, so hitting greens is essential to winning at Harbour Town.

The next important is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens. At 4,500 square feet, they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since the course. It ranked 43rd last year (64.78, 8th best on Tour). In 2021 it ranked 44th (63.80, 8th best on Tour). In 2020 Harbour Town ranked 40th (67.14, 2nd best on Tour). In 2019 it ranked 42nd (62.99, 8th best on Tour) and 45th in 2018. It was 46th in 2017, 26th in 2016, and 49th best in 2015, which meant that the average player got it up and down 64.68% of the time. Only three courses saw averages higher you have to scramble well to exist. Last year’s winner, Jordan Spieth, ranked 6th, getting it up and down 18 of the 22 greens he missed. In 2021, Stewart Cink ranked T-4th getting it up and down 13 of 16 greens missed. In 2020 Webb Simpson ranked T-27th, while 2019 winner C.T. Pan ranked T-16th. 2018 champion Satoshi Kodaira was T-13th mostly because he hit a lot of greens.

Last, we pick a stat rarely used, strokes gained putting. That’s because at Hilton Head putting well doesn’t mean much, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8-footers. Last year in this stat, Jordan Spieth, despite having the reputation as one of the best putters on Tour, putted terribly. He was 60th in Strokes Gained Putting as he was 71st in putting from 4 to 8 feet and was 57th in putting inside ten feet, making 63 of 73 putts. In the previous year’s champions, in 2021, Cink ranked T-25th mostly because he hit so many greens. In 2020 Simpson ranked 2nd. In 2019 Pan ranked 5th, while in 2018, Kodaira ranked T-13th. So maybe it’s best to pick those putters that make putts in the five to ten-foot range?

So as you can see, the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, every one of them is ranked at the bottom of driving distance, and the longest is Jordan Spieth last year, who ranked 2nd as all of his drives averaged 290.5 yards. So think of it, most of the champions do not hit it long, something you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Heritage finished 35th, in 2021, it ranked 29th in this stat, while in 2020, it was 33rd in this stat. In 2019 it ranked 21st, 24th in 2018, 21st in 2017, 18th in 2016, and 36th in 2015.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Harbour Town, last year Harbour Town ranked 10th, in 2021, it was 19th, while in 2020, it ranked 17th in this stat but was 6th in 2019 and in 2018. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter, since Harbour Town’s greens are so small, you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts, but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2022, with 130 of the 147 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the stats for the 130 players

DraftKings tips

Of the 143 in the field, 112 have played at least once at Harbour Town in the RBC Heritage since 2010:

*Here are the players with the most under-par totals at the Masters since 2010:

• Matt Kuchar is 92 under in 52 rounds, playing 13 years
• Webb Simpson is 68 under in 48 rounds, playing 12 years
• Luke Donald is 64 under in 46 rounds, playing 13 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 43 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• J.T. Poston is 38 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Shane Lowry is 36 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Kevin Streelman is 34 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is 34 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Jordan Spieth is 32 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• C.T. Pan is 32 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Matt Fitzpatrick is 32 under in 26 rounds, playing 8 years
• Jim Furyk is 32 under in 38 rounds, playing 12 years
• Maverick McNealy is 28 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Russell Knox is 28 under in 28 rounds, playing 9 years
• Brian Harman is 26 under in 40 rounds, playing 11 years
• Wesley Bryan is 26 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Andrew Landry is 25 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Joel Dahmen is 25 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Troy Merritt is 25 under in 26 rounds, playing 8 years
• Collin Morikawa is 24 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Corey Conners is 24 under in 18 rounds, playing 6 years
• Sepp Straka is 23 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Dylan Frittelli is 22 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 22 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• Kevin Kisner is 22 under in 32 rounds, playing 10 years
• Adam Hadwin is 21 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Si Woo Kim is 21 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 20 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Jason Dufner is 19 under in 40 rounds, playing 11 years
• Stewart Cink is 19 under in 44 rounds, playing 13 years
• Billy Horschel is 17 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 17 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 20 under, playing 2 years (-10.0)
• J.T. Poston is 38 under, playing 4 years (-9.5)
• Maverick McNealy is 28 under, playing 3 years (-9.3)
• Patrick Cantlay is 43 under, playing 5 years (-8.6)
• Joel Dahmen is 25 under, playing 3 years (-8.3)
• Collin Morikawa is 24 under, playing 3 years (-8.0)
• Sepp Straka is 23 under, playing 3 years (-7.7)
• Shane Lowry is 36 under, playing 5 years (-7.2)
• Matt Kuchar is 92 under, playing 13 years (-7.1)
• Tyrrell Hatton is 34 under, playing 5 years (-6.8)
• Doug Ghim is 13 under, playing 2 years (-6.5)
• Andrew Landry is 25 under, playing 4 years (-6.3)
• Webb Simpson is 68 under, playing 12 years (-5.7)
• Tommy Fleetwood is 17 under, playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Dylan Frittelli is 22 under, playing 4 years (-5.5)
• Jordan Spieth is 32 under, playing 6 years (-5.3)
• C.T. Pan is 32 under, playing 6 years (-5.3)
• Wesley Bryan is 26 under, playing 5 years (-5.2)
• Luke Donald is 64 under, playing 13 years (-4.9)
• Sam Burns is 14 under, playing 3 years (-4.7)
• Emiliano Grillo is 22 under, playing 5 years (-4.4)
• Matt Fitzpatrick is 32 under, playing 8 years (-4.0)
• Corey Conners is 24 under, playing 6 years (-4.0)
• Justin Thomas is 16 under, playing 4 years (-4.0)
• Si Woo Kim is 21 under, playing 6 years (-3.5)
• Tyler Duncan is 14 under, playing 4 years (-3.5)
• Kevin Streelman is 34 under, playing 10 years (-3.4)
• Sungjae Im is 13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Masters, a total of 64 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,100
• Scottie Scheffler – $11,000
• Jordan Spieth – $10,400
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,300
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Viktor Hovland – $9,800
• Cameron Young – $9,600
• Tony Finau – $9,400
• Xander Schauffele – $9,300
• Max Homa – $9,100

This is an easy event to judge, looking for those that hit it straight, greens, and putts well. So right off the bat, I have to wonder how many people will be taking Jon Rahm at $11,100? I won’t touch him, yes, the course is suitable for him, but the problem of having to be in top shape after winning the Masters is an arduous task. Dustin Johnson was the last player to go to Hilton Head in 2020, but that doesn’t count since the Masters was played in November. So the last time a Masters champion played the following week at Hilton Head was Jordan Spieth in 2015, he finished T-11th. So I don’t think it’s wise to pick Rahm this week. Scottie Scheffler at $11,000 is a no also. I’m sorry he hasn’t played the course, and I don’t think his game is meant for a course like Hilton Head. Defending champion Jordan Spieth at $10,400 is also a no. He was complaining after the Masters of being exhausted and not mentally sharp when a player says that it’s code that you don’t want him. The first yes, and I think he can win, is Patrick Cantlay at $10,300. His game is sharp at Hilton Head he was 2nd last year, T-3rd in 2019 & ’17, and T-7th in 2018. He is an excellent pick to win. Collin Morikawa at $10,000 is a maybe, it all depends on his putting. In three starts, he was T-7th in 2021, but I think he is too expensive. Viktor Hovland at $9,800 I like that he plays well on courses by the sea, and I could see him having a great week after playing well at the Masters but falling flat on Sunday. Cameron Young at $9,600 is a big yes for me, he was T-3rd last week and had been playing well. Tony Finau at $9,400 is a maybe, he has made cuts and been in the top-26 in his last 11 starts. He has played indifferently at Hilton Head, the course probably doesn’t favor his game. The same with Xander Schauffele at $9,300, just like Will Zalatoris having surgery last weekend. We really don’t know much about Schauffele’s back. He limited his practice at Augusta, so that tells us something. But he was 5th at the Match Play and T-10th at the Masters, so don’t disregard him. Max Homa at $9,100, could be a perfect pick, he seems to be dangerous on short courses, and even though he was T-41st in his only start in 2020, he could be good.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Heritage on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Heritage starts:

Matt Kuchar made 13 cuts in 13 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.

Webb Simpson made 12 cuts in 12 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.

Ryan Palmer made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

Jordan Spieth made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.

Wyndham Clark made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

Andrew Landry made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.

Justin Thomas made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.

Dylan Frittelli made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.

Maverick McNealy made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.

Sepp Straka made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.

Joel Dahmen made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

Collin Morikawa made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,000.

Xander Schauffele made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.

C.T. Pan made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

Brian Harman made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

Jason Dufner made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.

Kevin Streelman made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

Billy Horschel made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

Shane Lowry made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.

Patrick Cantlay made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,300.

Tyrrell Hatton made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.

Wesley Bryan made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.

Luke Donald made 10 cuts in 13 starts for a 76.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.

Ben Martin made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.

J.T. Poston made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.

Ryan Moore made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.

Doc Redman made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

Denny McCarthy made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Justin Thomas at $8,900 is not a good choice. His game is in disarray, and this course is not suited for his game, so I will pass on him. Sam Burns at $8,700 is a choice, he won at the Match Play, and the course seems to play in his wheelhouse. I like Tom Kim at $8,500, yes, he never has played in this event, but his game has been steady since missing the cut at the Sony Hawaii. This course is much like Sedgefield C.C., where Kim won the Wyndham Championship, so think about him. Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,400 is a yes for me. He played at the Masters as his game was coming together. He also was T-4th at Hilton Head in 2021. Sahith Theegala at $8,000 is a reasonable price for someone that could win. He has played well and consistently this year, was 9th at Augusta last week, and in his only Hilton Head start, was T-70th last year. Matt Kuchar at $7,700 is a great choice, he was T-3rd at Hilton Head last year, 2nd in 2019, and won in 2014. He is playing great, and he should be an automatic pick. The same with Justin Rose at $7,700. He hasn’t played much in this event but has the game to play well. I also like Taylor Montgomery at $7,500. The secret to his game is putting, so he could be very good at Hilton Head.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Min Woo Lee at $7,400 is worth it. Yes playing for the first time, but his game is ok now. Webb Simpson at $7,400, is a great pick and always plays well on this course, including a win in 2020. He was T-7th in his last start at Valspar and is ready to contend. How can you go wrong with Adam Scott at $7,400? He always makes the cut and will score a good amount of points. Seamus Power at $7,300, is also a winner, was T-6th in his only Hilton Head start in 2019, has been ok, and makes a lot of cuts. Matt Wallace at $7,300 is good, he plays ok at the Heritage and has played well the last month, including a victory at the Corales Puntacam last month. Cam Davis at $7,100 is good, he was T-3rd last year but has been very inconsistent in 2023. Thomas Detry at $7,100 is always a good choice, playing at Hilton Head for the first time.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Heritage:

The key stat for the winner:

• Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America; it’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost over power. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. So what will it take to win this week’s Heritage Classic?
• What makes the course challenging is the greens. At 4,500 square feet, they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Over the last 16 years, they have been difficult to hit. Of all the tournaments, the U.S. Open is the only one that ranks harder to hit than the greens of Hilton Head.
• Over the years, putting and hitting greens have been vital to winning at Harbour Town. If you look at the list of Heritage champions, all of them are good putters, especially from the ten to twenty feet range.
•  With greens as small as those, Hilton Head scrambling is essential in winning. Remember this, Harbour Town is a course in which you must scramble well on it. Last year seven courses were harder to get up and down. But in 2020, only one course scrambled better than Harbour Town as the field got it up and down 67.14% of the time. Look at the recent winners to see how important this stat is. Last year’s winner, Jordan Spieth, ranked 6th in getting it up and down. In 2021, Stewart Cink ranked T-4th getting it up and down 13 of 16 greens missed. In 2020 Webb Simpson ranked T-27th getting it up and down 14 of 19 times. In 2019 C.T. Pan missed 30 greens but got it up and down on 22 of these greens in his winning effort. The year before, Satoshi Kodaira missed 23 greens but got it up and down 17 times and was T-13th in scrambling. In 2017, Wesley Bryan missed 32 greens but got it up and down 27 times to lead the field in scrambling. In 2016 Branden Grace was 22 of 28 greens missed and 3rd in scrambling. In 2015, Jim Furyk led the stat getting it up and down 21 of the 22 greens he missed, the best in championship history. The year before, Matt Kuchar was 12th in that stat on the PGA Tour in 2014. The 2013 winner Graeme McDowell led the scrambling list at Harbour Town, getting it up and down 79.2% of the time. In 2012 Carl Pettersson was 21st, and Brandt Snedeker did an excellent job at 20th. But in the years before, it was even better, as in 2010, Jim Furyk was 4th in this category, getting it up and down 23 of 28 times. In 2009 Brian Gay was first in this category, getting it up and down 22 of 24 tries. In 2007 Boo Weekley only took 97 putts and won the category, Aaron Baddeley was 7th in his win in 2006, Davis Love III was 3rd in his 2003 victory, Justin Leonard was 7th in his 2002 win, Jose Coceres was 5th in 2001, and Nick Price was 3rd in 1997.
• Heritage always seems to have dramatic finishes. In the last 24 Heritage’s, nine have had playoffs, seven have had a one-shot margin of victory, while the other was two, four, and five. Last year Jordan Spieth beat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. In 2021 Stewart Cink won by four shots. In 2020 Webb Simpson beat Abraham Ancer by a shot. In 2019 C.T. Pan won by a shot over Matt Kuchar. In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira beat SiWoo Kim in a playoff. In 2017 Wesley Bryan beat Luke Donald by a shot, while the year before, Branden Grace was the exception to the rule beating Luke Donald and Russell Knox by two shots. The previous year Jim Furyk beat Kevin Kisner in a playoff, while in 2014, Matt Kuchar defeated Luke Donald by a shot, thanks to a Kuchar birdie on the 72nd hole. In 2013 Graeme McDowell won in a playoff with Webb Simpson, while in 2012, Carl Pettersson had an easy time winning by five. In 2011 Snedeker went three extra holes before beating Luke Donald. It can’t get any more exciting than in 2007 when Boo Weekley beat Ernie Els by a shot, but he chipped in on 17 and 18 for the win. In 2010 Jim Furyk beat Brian Davis in a playoff. So you have to think things will be close at the end of Sunday.
• Just like last week with some weather that came into Augusta on Friday and Saturday , weather will be a factor over the weekend with thunderstorms and showers on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.