BlogMexico Open at Vidanta Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week the Tour moves back to Mexico as a replacement for the WGC-Mexico Championship, played in Mexico City between 2017 and 2020. That event became a big success; being in Mexico City, they had many local folks attend the event. Unfortunately, Covid-19 prevented the event from returning to Mexico as it was moved to Florida for its last event. Since the tournament is gone, it looks like the World Golf Championships are at its end.

The Tour kept in touch with the Mexican company Grupo Salinas, which was crucial in bringing the WGC-Mexico Championship to Mexico City. They are turning the country’s national Championship, the Mexico Open, into a yearly PGA Tour stop. The event has a long history, it started in 1944, and the first four of them were won by Al Espinosa. Over the years, it has had a great list of champions like Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Ben Crenshaw, Bob Rosburg, Jay Haas, John Cook, and Stewart Cink, to name a few. It was part of the PGA Tour Latinoamerica Tour for the last few years.

The field will consist of 144 players, with about a dozen professionals with ties with Mexico. Now the field isn’t great; besides Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, the field is sparse as most of the marquee players are taking the week off.

Have to wonder what the future of this event is. It’s in the last year of its contract, and there has been some talk that it’s just not working; it’s now hard to get any marquee names due to all the changes. I don’t think this event will disappear; it has a deep history since it was first played in 1944. I can see this turning into a Korn Ferry Tour but don’t be surprised not to see this event on the PGA Tour schedule next year.

Tiger surgery, could this be the end of his playing career?

Sorry to see that Tiger had to undergo another surgery last week.  He has been my hero since I first saw him play at the 1993 Amateur at Muirfield.  I have never seen anybody that was as automatic as Tiger.  If Tiger was in contention going into Sunday, you knew he was a threat threat to win, if he was leading, you knew he would do the job and win.

I love that Tiger has found a way to return after that dreadful accident two years ago in Los Angeles after he almost lost his leg.  Even though I realistically knew he will never win again, I was hoping in the next couple of years of seeing Tiger have some brilliant round in a major, kind of like Ben Hogan’s 66 in the 1967 Masters.  I was saddened to see Tiger struggle in the rain-delayed third round, and now I realize that the end could be close.  Tiger has the biggest heart in golf, he proved that by winning the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines with a broken leg.  But you can’t contend if you don’t have the legs, and with subtalar fusion on his right ankle, you have to think his competitive future could be in doubt.  Since 2008 when he had surgery after the U.S. Open win, Tiger has had a string of surgeries and roadblocks.  Still, despite that, he found a way to win the 2019 Masters, something that many will always remember.  But the facts are in front Tiger, there is only a small amount of things and surgery doctors can do.  We probably won’t see Tiger back until the Hero in December, but after this comeback, will Tiger be willing to do what he has done so many times in the last 15 years to put the time and effort in trying to get competitive again?  Age, pain and arthritis is now Tiger’s future and in the days before the Masters he raised the fact that he may not have much left in him to come back.  It will be interesting to see what he does, I don’t think he will follow the path of Arnold Palmer and play in as many events as he could.  Tiger is a pround man who if he can’t win, won’t bother to show up.  Have a feeling when Tiger gets around to it in the coming months reality will set in.  I know it’s a shame, I really wanted to see him win one more time to be the all-time wins leader and I always had thought that Tiger could possibly catch and pass Nicklaus major win record.  But we have to realize that just isn’t in the cards.

Things you need to know about Mexico Open

This may be called the second Mexico Open, but as we have said historically, the Mexico Open started in 1944. It takes the place of the WGC-Mexico Championship, which had a terrific five-year run. The difference between the two is that the WGC-Mexico Championship was played for four years at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. At that event, it was mostly locals from the city, and it turned into a perfect event with a lot of community support.

The Mexico Open returns to the Greg Norman signature course at Vidanta Vallarta, a tourist community outside Puerto Vallarta. So the event will be marketed towards those on vacation in Puerto Vallarta, which has many resorts and hotels dotting the beaches.

Course information:

• Vidanta Vallarta (Greg Norman Course)
• Vallarta, Mexico
• 7,456 yards     Par 35-36–71
• The Greg Norman course at Vidanta Vallarta opened in 2016 but underwent many modifications to hold the event last year. The course winds along the American River and provides views of the Sierra Madre Mountains. It’s a par 71 course that will be played at 7,456. The course has a slope ranking of 143, and from the back tees, is rated at 75.1. The course is accessed by the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge, which is 560 feet long.
• Last year the scoring average of the event was 70.32 and ranked as the 24th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• Now for mortals like you and I, the course is very demanding. But for the best players in the world, we saw a lot of birdies and eagles last year. What makes the course challenging for you and me are the water hazards, large waste areas, and patches of indigenous vegetation. But for the best players in the world, they will find a course with wide, inviting fairways and perfect playing conditions. The greens have undulations on them, but they are in excellent shape and will be great for those that put them well. The biggest challenge for the players will be the wind; the course lies just a half mile away from the Pacific Ocean, so that will affect how the course is played. For the players spotting iguanas is part of the fun while you keep an eye on the crocodiles sunning in the neighboring sanctuary.
• For the average player, water plays on 15 of the 18 holes. But for the best players in the world, water will come into play on 11 holes, 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11, 14, and 17. The secret of playing well will be in the shots into the greens and being able to make a lot of 10-foot putts. There are four par 5s, with two playing over 600 yards. Despite that, all will be accessible in two, and the winner must play these four holes in at least 10 under. Last year Jon Rahm won playing the par 5s in 12 under par. That could have been the key to his win as runner-ups Tony Finau and Kurt Kitayama played them in 7 under par. I won’t be surprised to see the winner this year in the 13 and 14 under-par totals on the par 5s. So power off the tee will be necessary; we can classify Vidanta Vallarta as a “Bombers course.”  Winner Jon Rahm was 3rd in driving distance averaging 317.6 yards per drive. The leader in that stat was Cameron Champ at 320.5 yards, he finished T-6th, and Brandon Hagy was 2nd at 319.1 yards, but he finished T-42nd. In looking at some of the long drivers on the PGA Tour in Mexico this week, #3 Luke List, #4 Jon Rahm, and #10 Byeong Hun An are in the field in Mexico.
• The par 5s are easy, but the five par 3s will challenge players. Four of the five have water seriously in play, so if a player can get around in 1 or 2 under, he will have a significant advantage. Last year Jon Rahm played them in 2 under, while Kurt Kitayama was 4 under, while Tony Finau was 2 under. The par 3s at Vidanta Vallarta were T-22nd in 2022.
• The greens on the Greg Norman course range from average to huge, have plenty of slope and contour (including tiers and valleys) and are in excellent condition. Most are raised with false fronts, and all are well-guarded with 40 bunkers. If you miss a green, expect the ball to roll into a collection area. From there, you will be presented with how you try to get it up and down. Some will fly it to the pin, while others will bump and run it up. If you fly it to the pin, you will not get it right and have more problems. So most of the time, you will see a player bump it onto the green and close to the hole. Last year putting was important in Jon Rahm’s victory. He was 18th in Strokes Gained putting but was 4th in putting inside ten feet as he made 63 of 67 attempts. If we look at those players that lead Strokes Gained Putting for 2023 and are playing this week, #1 Maverick McNealy is playing, #4 Harry Hall, #8 Ben Taylor, and #9 Andrew Novak are in the field this week.
• Another key about Vidanta Vallarta is the greens are so big that of all the courses on the PGA Tour, Vidanta Vallarta was the highest total in Proximity to Hole at 43 feet, 10 inches. Last year a lot of birdies (1,698 were made) as only ten other courses had more birdies, so the winner needs a lot of offense to win.

So is the course hard enough so that a marquee player has the advantage of winning?

Last year Jon Rahm proved that a marquee player could win, but the big problem is that there aren’t many marquee players on the field besides Rahm, Tony Finau, and possibly Gary Woodland. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a newcomer winning this week.

I wish I could give you a better way of choosing players, but in a way, it’s best to look at results from these four events to see the trend on who to pick. The Mexico Open will resemble these events, which are also played along the ocean and have the elements of wind. So look at the Bermuda Championship, Mayakoba Championship, Puerto Rico Open, and Corales Puntacana Championship, as the way players have done on those courses will show up this week. You will see no rhyme or reason in choosing winners, and basically, the players who will play well are those that find some secret in the days before the start of the event.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 RBC Heritage (We don’t include team events), a total of 65 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $12,200
• Tony Finau – $10,700
• Wyndham Clark – $9,700
• Gary Woodland – $9,600
• Nicolai Hojgaard – $9,500
• Maverick McNealy – $9,400
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,300
• Taylor Pendrith – $9,200
• Byeong Hun An – $9,100
• Alex Noren – $9,000

Before we start this week’s Mexico Open, it’s important to note that we have very little information on past results (just last year’s event), so we don’t know who likes and plays the course well. Only half of the players have seen Vidanta Vallarta before this week (79 making their debut at the event), so it’s safe to say that everyone is on equal terms on course knowledge. Frankly, my best advice is to take the week off and prepare for next week’s Wells Fargo, another designated event with a great field.

Besides Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, this week doesn’t have many marquee players, so all players’ values are wildly skewed. Frankly, of the 10 players listed above, I am only comfortable with four, Rahm, Finau, Woodland, and Rodgers. Of the others, I can tolerate Nicolai Hojgaard and Byeong Hun An, so it’s best to find those best picks in the 8,000 price range. One thing that you should think of, instead of looking for winners, in a full field of 144 players, if you pick six that make the cut, you will win money.

Our first player Jon Rahm at $12,200; gosh, it’s rare to find a player that is so expensive. But the course is perfect for him; he feels comfortable in Puerto Vallarta and on the course. With his length off the tee and how the course suits his game, you could miss out on at least 100 DraftKings points if you don’t take him. The odds of Rahm finishing in the top ten are probably 8 to 10, so if you don’t pick him, you will be at a serious disadvantage because I feel that between 40 to 60% of the players will pick Rahm. Some will think that Tony Finau at $10,700 is a cheaper good choice; I feel that Finau will play well but give his top-ten odds at 5 to 10. Again, if you will spend $10,700 for Finau, $1,500 more for Rahm is a safer bet. Wyndham Clark at $9,700 is a lot of money for a player like Clark, who averages just 65 DraftKings points per event. Yes, he has made the cut in his last 13 events, and yes was 5th at Valspar and 6th at Corales Puntacan. Yes, he does drive it long and hits a fair amount of greens. I don’t think he is a good enough putter. He was T-29th at the RBC Heritage, but his cost is prohibitive; I say no to him. Gary Woodland at $9,600 is a good choice for the course.  One problem could be his putting, which has not been good, and he is awful on greens he misses, so I say no, even though he has played well of late with a T-14th at the Masters he may not be a great choice for this week. Nicolai Hojgaard at $9,500 is again a high cost for a player with his record. Sure, he was 2nd at the Corales Puntacan and is one of the longest drivers off the tee, but I don’t think he is a good suit for this course. Have to also say no to Maverick McNealy at $9,400. I still think he is not healthy; he took a month off after hurting his shoulder at Pebble and hasn’t played that great since returning. There are so many lingering issues with him, so sorry he is a no. Patrick Rodgers at $9,300 is a big yes for me. Everything points to the stars aligning correctly for him this week. He finished 10th in Mexico last year and was 5th last month at the Valero Texas Open, a course similar to Vidanta Vallarta. He is sneaky long and is ready to contest and win. Taylor Pendrith at $9,200 is a possibility; he drives it long and can play well, but he has not seen the course and hasn’t played well since Pebble, sorry take a pass on him. Now I do like Byeong Hun An at $9,100. He is long off the tee and has played well in 2023. His last start was T-13th at Zurich; he also was T-6th at Valero, Texas, so take a chance on him. Alex Noren at $9,000 is a no; just too expensive for a player with his record and no record in this event.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Beau Hossler at $8,800 is possible; he played well at Zurich with Wyndham Clark and has some good finishes in 2023. But he also missed four cuts in a row at the Genesis through the Florida swing, so buyer beware on Hossler. Brandon Wu at $8,300 is a gamble, but he finished T-2nd last year and has some good finishes in 2023. I like Alex Smalley at $8,400; he was T-6th at Mexico last year, and despite being hit and miss on the PGA Tour in 2023 have to think the course is suitable for him. S.H. Kim at $8,200 is our first have-to-take pick. He is nothing fancy, but he makes a lot of cuts and will get many points at a low cost. Another good pick will be MJ Daffue at $8,000. He is playing this event for the first time, he ranks T-26th in driving distance, but we have to be worried since he is 179th in Strokes Gained Putting, and in 31 events, he still hasn’t gotten a top-ten finish. But he has made the cut in his last seven starts, and I feel he is close to finishing an event in the top ten. Another automatic pick has to be Chez Reavie, who is just $7,700. He has struggled with his game since winning the Barracuda Championship last summer. The low point came when he missed six cuts in a row between the American Express and Valspar, but since has played great, finishing T-6th at Valero Texas and T-11th at RBC. Last year he was T-13th in Mexico, so I have to like him a lot. I also like David Lipsky at $7,600. I don’t like him as much as Reavie, but Lipsky was T-6th last year in Mexico, and despite a mix of mostly poor play in 2023 have to think the course suits his eye. The same with Lanto Griffin at $7,500; he was T-15th last year in Mexico. I like that he finished T-15th at the Valero Texas Open, yes, he missed the cut at Hilton Head, but that course is not the same as Vidanta Vallarta.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Memorial

Watch Akshay Bhatia at $7,400; he has mixed results in 2023 but did finish 2nd in Puerto Rico, so there is a thought that Mexico could open similar doors for him this week. I really like Andrew Novak at $7,300. He was T-15th last year in Mexico and was T-9th at Valero Texas Open. Kevin Streelman at $7,300 is a thought, he was 67th last year in Mexico and had good and bad results for 2023, but I think the course suits him. Cameron Champ at $7,100 is a big gamble considering that he has only made two cuts in 13 2023 starts. But he was T-6th in this event last year and hit it a long way, so this could be the perfect place to snap his last six starts’ missed cut streak. Again it’s hard to find any good picks for this event; one thing to look for is a player that did well at the Valero Texas Open; if he played well there, he would play well this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Mexico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• Lots of patience to learn the course and will take a lot of patience in which birdies and eagles will be easy to make. This doesn’t happen much on the PGA Tour, but they could take apart this course if the weather is good.

Some more keys:

• The ability to hit it long and straight could be the way to winning this event.
• The greens are very demanding, and with them being hard, they will bounce off the greens and give players challenging pitches in which they either have to bump and run them to the pin or fly it to the pin.
• Last, we have to talk about the weather. The course hasn’t seen rain in weeks, so that it will be hard and firm. But looking at the weather forecast, every day will be picture-perfect, with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will come off the ocean at 12 mph, so look for excellent scoring conditions.