Wells Fargo Championship Key Fantasy Stats

Wells Fargo Championship

May 4th – 7th, 2023

Quail Hollow Club

Charlotte, N.C.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,538

Purse: $20 million

with $3,600,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Max Homa

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

Quail Hollow has a lot of history in the last 20 years of hosting events as it continues hosting not only the Wells Fargo but, in 2017, the PGA Championship, 2022, the Presidents Cup, and the 2025 PGA Championship. One thing, for the PGA Championship, the first five holes were altered, with par being reduced from 72 to 71 with only a subtraction of 19 yards. For the PGA Championship, there were changes made to the course. First, a new type of Ultradwarf Bermudagrass was planted. They also cut down several thousand trees, so Quail Hollow is much sparser than before. They also have created four holes that will be different as the 1st and 2nd holes are now one long, 540 yard, par 4. The 5th hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4, and a new second hole was built; it’s now a par 3. Also, major work was done to the 11th hole. The famous finish wasn’t touched, but the course is now a par 71 compared to it being a par 72. Even with the reduced par, the course only lost 19 yards and played at 7,554 yards.
The dates are the big difference when the 2017 PGA Championship was played compared to the Wells Fargo. The PGA played in August when the course was bone dry and ran fast. In May, the course was more lush and did not have as much role, so it played a lot easier. In 2017 for the PGA Championship, the course played to an average of 73.47 and was the hardest course for the year. In 2018 when it took back its May date, the course played to a 72.13 average and was 5th hardest on Tour. In 2019 the course played to a 71.76 average and was the 8th hardest. No matter when it was played, the character of the course has not changed between the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo, but yes, it is more challenging at a par 71 than before.
For the Presidents Cup last September, they rerouted the course to ensure that its most famous holes, 16 through 18, would be a factor in match play matches. Holes 1-8 remain unchanged from the original order, but the ninth hole for the Presidents Cup is the normal 12th hole. From there, Nos. 10-15 will be the original Nos. 13-18, meaning the “Green Mile” will be holes 13-15 for the matches. The closing stretch will be holes 10, 11, and nine.
The course will return to normal this year, as the “dream mile” will return to holes 16, 17, and 18. Another thing, since the course was used for the Presidents Cup, the Wells Fargo was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, just outside of Washington D.C

So this week’s information is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, data from the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.

From year to year, Quail Hollow is always demanding and challenging; you look at the list of winners who are some of golf’s best ball strikers like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, Lucas Glover. Yes, some weird winners like Max Homa, Derek Ernst, Joey Sindelar, and James Hahn have won Flukes do happen, but most of the time at Quail Hollow, you’re going to get a quality winner, someone that plays well in major championships and the significant events. So in looking at our four categories, they are all related to ball striking, except for the last category, which I think will be very important: scrambling.
First is driving accuracy; the field at the 2021 Wells Fargo hit a total of 54.09% of the fairways and was the 9th hardest fairway to hit on the PGA Tour. When the Wells Fargo was played at Quail Hollow in 2019 (no 2020 event due to COVID), the course was the 8th hardest, while in 2018, it was the 6th hardest as only 52.34% of the fairways were hit. During the PGA Championship in 2017, 58.59% hit the fairways, as it was the 19th hardest course to hit. In 2021 Rory McIlroy won despite only hitting 33.93% of the fairways, which ranked T-76th or dead last. Max Homa won the Wells Fargo in 2019. He hit 55.63% of the greens and was T-45th. The same happened with Justin Thomas winning the 2017 PGA Championship; he only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-62nd.
The course is also long, so players have to hit drivers off the tee, and you don’t see many players lay back with a 3-wood or long iron. Our second category is proximity to the hole, which is the cousin to greens in regulation. Quail Hollow was the hardest to hit for the PGA Championship in 2017 and was 3rd at 42 feet, 9 inches in Proximity to the Hole. For the 2021 Wells Fargo, the course ranked 2nd with an average of 43 feet, ten inches. As for McIlroy, he ranked T-13th hitting an average of 40 feet, six inches. For Homa in 2019, he ranked T-17th in Greens in Regulation and 16th in Proximity to the hole; as for Thomas at the 2017 PGA Championship, he was T-29th. Our third category is strokes gained tee to green; again, this gives an overall look at a player from the tee to the green; in 2021, McIlroy was 9th; in 2019, Homa was 12th, while at the 2017 PGA Championship, Thomas was 22nd. Our last category is scrambling; in 2021, the course was 10th hardest, while McIlroy was 1st. In 2019 the course was the 12th hardest on the PGA Tour, while Homa was the 2nd best for the week.

So the secret is that a ball striker or an excellent putter will rule and take the championship this week. I go more towards ball striking because, in the past, that has been more important.

*Driving Accuracy: Important because the fairways are close to U.S. Open length, and if you drive it into the rough, it’s tough.

*Proximity to Hole: Hitting greens is important, in 2021 Quail Hollow ranked 10th in Greens in Regulation, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 2nd as the players averaged getting it 43 feet, ten inches.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. In 2021 the course was 35th in driving distance and 9th in accuracy. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better. In 2021 Quail Hollow was 10th on the PGA Tour, showing how tough it is to scrambling at Quail Hollow.

Here are the 141 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.