BlogWells Fargo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Amazing how we don’t know about a player. Many gamblers that bet on Matt Fitzpatrick between the AT&T Pebble Beach and the Masters were not happy at Fitzpatrick’s poor play. But nobody, other than Fitzpatrick and those close to him, realized he was having neck problems, something those who placed bets on Fitzpatrick wouldn’t have done if they only knew.

After winning the U.S. Open last June, Matt knew he had the game to be one of the top players. But Fitzpatrick had a secret that not many people knew about. Fitzpatrick has been plagued with neck pain since his teenage years. He calls it a “long-term niggle,”  something that comes and goes; there is no rhyme or reason on when it strikes or how long it lingers. Fitzpatrick has done gym work to alleviate the problem for several years.

Going into 2023, Fitzpatrick worked hard on things to help him become a better player. In his 2023 debut, he was T-7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In his next start at the AT&T Pebble, the neck problem flared up while he was getting ready to play the event. In the past, the neck would ease after a few days, but the pain stayed around this time. He missed the cut at Pebble and struggled a bit at Phoenix; he shot a final round 65 to finish T-29th. At Genesis, the pain didn’t ease; on Friday, the pain got worst, going down his should and into his chest. He missed the cut and went to a hospital in L.A. for an MRI. The results, Fitzpatrick had a slight disk bulge. Doctors told him to ease up, and he couldn’t train in the gym or work on his game. He finished T-14th at the Palmer but missed the cut at the Players and Valspar. He wasn’t any better at the WGC-Dell Match Play, losing two of his three matches. The timing of the problem put him in a challenging situation. All of the work he had done in the off-season became non-existent. He couldn’t swing it like he wanted, and going into the Masters, his game wasn’t sharp. But as mysteriously as the pain came before Pebble, the problem cleared up the week before the Masters. He had no pain at the Masters and finished T-10th.  All of this carried over to the RBC Heritage, where his parents took the family on vacations starting when Matt was six years old. Fitzpatrick played great with rounds of 66-70-63-68 and finished tied with Jordan Spieth. Matt won the playoff on the third hole when he hit his 2nd shot to within a foot for a birdie. Pain-free has helped him practice and do his gym work, improving his iron game. He played with his brother Alex at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and was in contention going into the final round, but the two brothers shot 74 and finished T-19th.

So what is the future for Fitzpatrick? Frankly, in my mind, he is dangerous good; he has a ticking time bomb in his neck that could go at any time. We experienced the same with Jason Day, who in 2015 was the best player in the world, winning five events that year. But the same thing happened to Day; he had a disk bulge and struggled between 2019 and this year. He is healthy right now and is playing better golf, but still, we have to be careful because Day never had surgery; he got better with proper exercises and not putting stress on his injuries. Two other players with the same problems are Will Zalatoris and Xander Schauffele. Zalatoris had experienced back and neck problems for years. But, like with Fitzpatrick, it came and went; it wasn’t serious. The sad thing about Zalatoris, he struggled to win on the PGA Tour, and when he did win in Memphis, he hurt himself the following week at the BMW. He took the next four months off and rejoined the tour at the Sentry T of C, finishing T-11th. For many of us, we thought he was healed, but the pain never got any better, and by the time the Masters rolled around, he realized that he had to have surgery to fix the problem. So he is back home to Dallas and is rehabbing, hoping to be back on tour around Christmas time.

As for Xander Schauffele, he, too, out of the blue, had problems. During the second round, he withdrew from the Sentry Tournament of Champions with back pains. It was the first time he had ever had to withdraw, and the concern was that he had the same back pain a few weeks earlier at the Hero. Schauffele returned home and underwent scans and an MRI to diagnose the back pain. The good news was no tear, and the diagnosis was muscular, which meant some rest. He took a week off, trying not to rush but felt OK about going to Palm Springs for the American Express. He said in his Wednesday press conference that he wasn’t 100 percent, and he thought a portion of that was due to mental stress from the previous times the back hurt. After rounds of 65-68-68, he caught fire in the final round to shoot 62 to finish T-3rd, two shots back of winner Jon Rahm. The following week was T-13th at the Farmers Insurance and then T-10th at the WM Phoenix Open. In an interview with Sports Illustrated before Phoenix, he said the back was still touch and go, he had taken further MRI, and doctors assured him there was nothing seriously wrong. He needed patience for it to heal entirely and for him to be pain-free. In the WGC-Dell Match Play, he won all three of his group play matches, beat J.J. Spaun 3 & 2 in the round of 16, but lost to Rory McIlroy 1 up. Schauffele was T-10th at the Masters and 4th at the RBC Heritage and Zurich. So with the season about 70% complete but three majors and the FedExCup playoffs left, could we see him making a run? Possible since his back hasn’t given him any problems since January. But he is being more cautious. He told the press at the Masters that he wasn’t playing many holes or staying on the range too long. We can’t complain because he has been playing much better lately and is someone you must look at in the coming weeks.

The point is that playing golf and picking players is hard enough; the last thing you want is to choose a player with any pain, but we don’t know. As for Fitzpatrick and Schauffele, it looks like they are back to normal.

So how is the field for this week?

Have to say that for a tournament that is two weeks away from the PGA Championship, the folks at the Wells Fargo got a great field. Yes, it helps that this week is a designated event with a big purse and first place of $3.6 million. Not only did they get 20 of the top-25, they got 33 of the top 50 and six players out of the top ten. Yes, it’s disappointing that Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Hideki Matsuyama aren’t in the field, but they still did well. Have a funny feeling that many in the field won’t be in Dallas next week as the AT&T Byron Nelson transitions to another golf course. It will be interesting to see what happens to this event after this year. With the Presidents Cup being played at Quail Hollow last year and the PGA Championship returning in 2025, we may see the last of Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo Championship. The tournament knows they can go to another course and be OK; when they went to Eagle Point in 2017, it was a big success in a robust Wilmington, North Carolina market. The same last year, they went to TPC Avenel in Maryland; it was a successful week. Another thing to watch is that the PGA Tour has twice gone to Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina. That course is excellent and has been a great place players love. With that success, and they can get folks to the event, who knows if Wells Fargo would put Congaree on their rota? So anything can happen in the future.

Lastly, what about Rory? Is he ready to go?

Boy, has this year been a roller coaster of a year? He won at the CJ Cup, won in Dubai, and was 2nd at the Palmer and 3rd at the Match Play. But he missed the cut at the Players, and we let it go because he had a lot of PGA Tour meetings over LIV Golf. The thought was that with all of the meetings, one supposedly was seven hours long, that could have hurt his game. So after finishing 3rd at the Match Play, people thought McIlroy would contend in the Masters. In DraftKings games, 26.6% backed Rory. Only Scottie Scheffler had more backing at 28.5%. So when Rory shot 77 in the second round to miss the cut, many just shook their heads and wondered what was up. He said his game was good rolling into the Masters, so how do we explain what happened? After the second round, Rory blew out of Augusta without talking to the media. He did speak to the media after he shot an opening round 72 and said his game was “a little untidy in places.”  Now we have seen this story before. Since winning his fourth major at the 2014 PGA Championship, McIlroy has missed the cut in seven majors. In most of these, he was the favorite, like in 2019 at the British Open played in Ireland at Royal Portrush. He opened with a 79 that shocked the golfing world. He shot a second-round 65 to miss the cut, but it was still a missed cut. The same in 2021 when Rory missed the cut at the Masters. He again was the favorite, only to shoot 76-74. So what can we expect from Rory this week? Probably a good appearance when you consider in 38 rounds at Quail Hollow, he has only shot over 74 three times. He has played Quail Hollow in 100 under par and been in the 60s 19 times. So he always finds his game at Quail Hollow; even when the PGA was played at the course in 2017, he was T-22nd. I think he will play well this week; that seems to be his record in past years. But will he struggle at the PGA, the U.S. Open, or the British Open? I can’t answer that, but this week will indicate how Rory will be for the rest of the season.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about Wells Fargo:

This is the 20th year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which has been played every year at the  Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, except for 2017 and last year. Eagle Point and TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms were big successes, but Quail Hollow is the course of record for Wells Fargo.

Course information:

• Quail Hollow Golf Club
• Charlotte, N.C.
• 7,538 yards     Par 35-36–71

Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 Bermuda Grass with Perennial Ryegrass.  The greens were changed after last year’s event and are Champion ultra dwarf Bermudagrass.

One of the big secrets to Quail Hollow is that the players love the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina, it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America and the players’ eyes, one of the best challenges. For years it was considered a “U.S. Open-type” venue, and the PGA of America was smart enough to hold its major on it.

Quail Hollow Club is located in Charlotte, North Carolina. It is a private member club founded by James J. Harris on April 13, 1959. The club hosted the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979, the PaineWebber World Seniors Invitational from 1983 through 1989, and has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship since it debuted in 2003.

The property was initially a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course, and it opened in June 1961. To attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much; he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.

Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88.  Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a significant renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.

But at the end of 2016, a lot of things were done to the course in first getting it ready for the 2017 PGA Championship and now for the Wells Fargo and any other events that will be played on the course in the future.  Along with all of the greens being redone, thousands of trees were removed, a bit like what Oakmont Country Club did.  This reshaped the way the course plays and made the elements of wind come into effect more.

They also made significant changes in the four holes.  The first and second holes were condensed into a single hole, a 540-yard par 4. The fifth hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4. A new second hole was built a par 3. The 11th was given extra bunkering.  The average green size is 6,500, which is about average, and the course is dotted with 62 bunkers.  Water comes into play on six holes (7, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18).  Along with changing the greens course, architect Tom Fazio made some changes four years ago to the 8th hole, making it play straight, and now is potentially a driveable par 4.  He also made a significant change to 16, adding 18 yards to the hole and bringing the lake into play, making it much tougher.  He also changed 17, moving the tee to the right and adding 20 yards to the hole.  The changes were well received,even the change from a par 72 to 71.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Quail Hollow.

Quail Hollow has a lot of history in the last 20 years of hosting events as it continues hosting not only the Wells Fargo but, in 2017, the PGA Championship, 2022, the Presidents Cup, and the 2025 PGA Championship. One thing, for the PGA Championship, the first five holes were altered, with par being reduced from 72 to 71 with only a subtraction of 19 yards. For the PGA Championship, there were changes made to the course. First, a new type of Ultradwarf Bermudagrass was planted. They also cut down several thousand trees, so Quail Hollow is much sparser than before. They also have created four holes that will be different as the 1st and 2nd holes are now one long, 540 yard, par 4. The 5th hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4, and a new second hole was built; it’s now a par 3. Also, major work was done to the 11th hole. The famous finish wasn’t touched, but the course is now a par 71 compared to it being a par 72. Even with the reduced par, the course only lost 19 yards and played at 7,554 yards.
The dates are the big difference when the 2017 PGA Championship was played compared to the Wells Fargo. The PGA played in August when the course was bone dry and ran fast. In May, the course was more lush and did not have as much role, so it played a lot easier. In 2017 for the PGA Championship, the course played to an average of 73.47 and was the hardest course for the year. In 2018 when it took back its May date, the course played to a 72.13 average and was 5th hardest on Tour. In 2019 the course played to a 71.76 average and was the 8th hardest. No matter when it was played, the character of the course has not changed between the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo, but yes, it is more challenging at a par 71 than before.
For the Presidents Cup last September, they rerouted the course to ensure that its most famous holes, 16 through 18, would be a factor in match play matches. Holes 1-8 remain unchanged from the original order, but the ninth hole for the Presidents Cup is the normal 12th hole. From there, Nos. 10-15 will be the original Nos. 13-18, meaning the “Green Mile” will be holes 13-15 for the matches. The closing stretch will be holes 10, 11, and nine.
The course will return to normal this year, as the “dream mile” will return to holes 16, 17, and 18. Another thing, since the course was used for the Presidents Cup, the Wells Fargo was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, just outside of Washington D.C

So this week’s information is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, data from the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.

From year to year, Quail Hollow is always demanding and challenging; you look at the list of winners who are some of golf’s best ball strikers like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, Lucas Glover. Yes, some weird winners like Max Homa, Derek Ernst, Joey Sindelar, and James Hahn have won Flukes do happen, but most of the time at Quail Hollow, you’re going to get a quality winner, someone that plays well in major championships and the significant events. So in looking at our four categories, they are all related to ball striking, except for the last category, which I think will be very important: scrambling.
First is driving accuracy; the field at the 2021 Wells Fargo hit a total of 54.09% of the fairways and was the 9th hardest fairway to hit on the PGA Tour. When the Wells Fargo was played at Quail Hollow in 2019 (no 2020 event due to COVID), the course was the 8th hardest, while in 2018, it was the 6th hardest as only 52.34% of the fairways were hit. During the PGA Championship in 2017, 58.59% hit the fairways, as it was the 19th hardest course to hit. In 2021 Rory McIlroy won despite only hitting 33.93% of the fairways, which ranked T-76th or dead last. Max Homa won the Wells Fargo in 2019. He hit 55.63% of the greens and was T-45th. The same happened with Justin Thomas winning the 2017 PGA Championship; he only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-62nd.
The course is also long, so players have to hit drivers off the tee, and you don’t see many players lay back with a 3-wood or long iron. Our second category is proximity to the hole, which is the cousin to greens in regulation. Quail Hollow was the hardest to hit for the PGA Championship in 2017 and was 3rd at 42 feet, 9 inches in Proximity to the Hole. For the 2021 Wells Fargo, the course ranked 2nd with an average of 43 feet, ten inches. As for McIlroy, he ranked T-13th hitting an average of 40 feet, six inches. For Homa in 2019, he ranked T-17th in Greens in Regulation and 16th in Proximity to the hole; as for Thomas at the 2017 PGA Championship, he was T-29th. Our third category is strokes gained tee to green; again, this gives an overall look at a player from the tee to the green; in 2021, McIlroy was 9th; in 2019, Homa was 12th, while at the 2017 PGA Championship, Thomas was 22nd. Our last category is scrambling; in 2021, the course was 10th hardest, while McIlroy was 1st. In 2019 the course was the 12th hardest on the PGA Tour, while Homa was the 2nd best for the week.

So the secret is that a ball striker or an excellent putter will rule and take the championship this week. I go more towards ball striking because, in the past, that has been more important.

*Driving Accuracy: Important because the fairways are close to U.S. Open length, and if you drive it into the rough, it’s tough.

*Proximity to Hole: Hitting greens is important, in 2021 Quail Hollow ranked 10th in Greens in Regulation, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 2nd as the players averaged getting it 43 feet, ten inches.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. In 2021 the course was 35th in driving distance and 9th in accuracy. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better. In 2021 Quail Hollow was 10th on the PGA Tour, showing how tough it is to scramble at Quail Hollow.

Here are the 141 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to the stats of all the players.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Mexico Open (We don’t include team events), a total of 66 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least nine events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week.

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,100
• Xander Schauffele – $10,700
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,500
• Tony Finau – $10,200
• Collin Morikawa – $10,800
• Jordan Spieth – $9,600
• Max Homa – $9,400
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $9,200
• Sungjae Im – $9,100
• Jason Day – $9,000

The pricing of this event is far, yes, Rory McIlroy is the best player in the field, but at the cost of $11,100 and how he has played of late, it’s going to be hard to pick him. On top of McIlroy’s play in 2023, his record is good at Quail Hollow, but the bottom line is a lot of people got stuck with him at the Players and Masters and won’t pick him due to that. I am not picking him; just too many things that can go wrong. Xander Schauffele, at $10,700, could be a good pick; he was T-14th at Quail Hollow in 2021 and has played well of late with a T-5th at the Match Play, T-10th at the Masters, 4th at Hilton Head, and T-4th at the Zurich team. Patrick Cantlay, at $10,500, has played well of late; he has been in the top 20 in his last six starts, including a 3rd at Heritage. But we have to question if Quail Hollow suits his game. He has only played at it once, missing the cut in 2021. I know he had an excellent Presidents Cup, which makes me think his miss cut was an anomaly. Many will take Tony Finau at $10,200 based on his win. Frankly, the course at the Mexico Open was perfect for him; I can’t say the same for Quail Hollow. In five starts, his best finish was T-16th, he was ok in the Presidents Cup, but I still think he is not a good choice this week. Collin Morikawa at $10,800 is also not a good choice; he has never played at Quail Hollow other than the Presidents Cup. Sorry, I don’t think the course suits his game. Also a bit shocked that Jordan Spieth, at $9,600, has only played once at Quail Hollow; he was T-32nd in 2013. Spieth is playing well now. He was T-4th at the Masters and 2nd at Heritage. Sorry, I don’t see him as a good fit this week. Max Homa, at $9,400, will get a lot of takers, mainly because they will know that he won the Wells Fargo twice. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case; his win last year was at TPC Avenel, and with his Quail Hollow win in 2019, he has missed the cut twice. Sorry, I don’t think he will do well this week. Matt Fitzpatrick, at $9,300, is a perfect pick; he is healthy again and won in his last start at Hilton Head but hasn’t played at Quail Hollow yet. He was T-2nd last year, but that was at Avenel. Still, you can’t go wrong with Fitzpatrick. Viktor Hovland, at $9,200, is a good pick. Yes been up and down all year, but he was T-3rd at the Players and T-7th at the Masters. His only Quail Hollow start was T-3rd in 2021, so Viktor is a great pick. Sungjae Im at $9,100 is a no; his Quail Hollow starts were missing the cut in 2021 and T-31st in 2020. Yes, he has been consistent since missing the cut in Hawaii; he was T-7th at Hilton Head. Jason Day at $9,000 is a good pick; he has won at Quail Hollow and has played well in 2023.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Justin Thomas is priced at $8,900, which is very low for him. Sure, he won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017, but of late, he was T-26th in 2021 and T-21st in 2018. For the year, he has had a lot of bumps in the road and has only one top-ten finish in 2023, so I say I take a pass on him. Another winner at Quail Hollow, who I like, is Rickie Fowler at $8,800. He has played well, with four top-17 finishes in his last starts. It’s only a matter of time before he zooms to a victory. The same with Cameron Young at $8,700. It’s only a matter of time before he wins. He is playing Quail Hollow for the first time but was T-2nd at Avenel. Sam Burns is reasonably priced at $8,700, but I am not taking him this week. They only played twice at Quail Hollow, with the best finish, T-55th. He won the Match Play and was T-29th at the Masters, but still not enough to make me pick him. Sahith Theegala at $8,200 is a good pick considering he was 9th at the Masters and T-5th at Hilton Head. He is playing at Quail Hollow for the first time. Brian Harman is a good pick; he is a past winner at Quail Hollow and was T-7th in his last start at Hilton Head. My dark horse pick is Keith Mitchell at $7,800; his record is good at Quail Hollow was T-3rd in 2021 and T-8th in 2019. He was T-4th at Pebble and 5th at Genesis, and despite missing the cut at Hilton Head, he is too good and too cheap to pass up. Patrick Rodgers is also a thought at $7,500. He was T-2nd at Quail Hollow in 2015, and his last start in 2022 was T-37th. He has been good in his last three starts, including a 5th at Valero, Texas, and a T-10th last week in Mexico.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Emiliano Grillo, at $7,400, is an excellent buy. He was T-14th in 2021 and was T-9th in 2018 at the Wells Fargo. He was T-7th at the RBC Heritage and T-5th in Mexico. Joel Dahmen at $7,300 is a good gamble; he was 2nd at Quail Hollow in 2019. Webb Simpson, at $7,200, lives in Charlotte and has played a lot at Quail Hollow; he has come close with a 4th place finish in 2012 and was T-2nd in 2015. Akshay Bhatia at 7,000 is worth the choice; he was 4th last week in Mexico. S.H. Kim, at $7,000, is a great choice and makes a lot of cuts. Dylan Wu at $6,700 is a good choice since he makes a lot of cuts and has made the cut in his last eight starts.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wells Fargo Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Hit it long and straight, avoid the 130 bunkers, and put well, making all your putts inside of ten feet.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Since the course will play at more than 7,538 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. But as you will see, length is not the only strength you need to play well at Quail Hollow. Four of the 17 Wells Fargo winners (James Hahn, Jim Furyk, David Toms, and Joey Sindelar) do not have the reputation as long hitters even though the 2005 winners Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Rory McIlroy, Derek Ernst, J.B. Holmes, and Max Homa do hit it long. So it’s a 50/50 proposition on if longer hitters have an advantage. Remember, if those that hit it long do well at Quail Hollow, why are players like Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler not playing this week?
• Quail Hollow joins Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Bethpage, which have held major championship and PGA Tour events. The course will play a bit easier than it did for the PGA Championship, primarily because of weather conditions and course setup. Still, the fairways will be tight with three-inch plus rough and fast undulating greens. The course consistently ranks as one of the most challenging courses the pros play year in and year out.
• Since the greens have some roll in them, it will also be challenging to not only hit the green but get it close. Sharp iron play will also help with the imagination when you get in trouble. But as we have seen in the history of Quail Hollow, the winners are diverse, such as Jason Day in 2018, Justin Thomas winning the PGA Championship, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, and Tiger Woods. One thing that is interesting of the 16 different winners at Quail Hollow (including Justin Thomas at PGA), eight of them (Day in 2018, Thomas in 2017, McIlroy 2021, ’15 & ’10, Glover 2011, Woods 2007, Furyk 2006, Singh 2005 and Toms in 2003) have won a major championship.
• Scrambling will be at a premium; look for good chippers like Jason Day or Rory McIlroy to have a significant advantage here. Matt Kuchar, Day, J.J. Spaun, Brian Harman, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Denny McCarthy, and Danny Willett are in the top ten for 2023 on this year’s scrambling list these are folks to watch this week.
• Putting is always a key to winning, but good putters should have a field day this year. Green speeds were lowered in 2008, and Anthony Kim was 2nd in total putts. But it popped up in 2009 as Sean O’Hair was T47th, the worst of any champion. In 2010 McIlroy was T38th in this category, while in 2011, Glover was 3rd. In 2012 Fowler was T40th, while in 2013, Derek Ernst was T34th. J.B. Holmes was T4th in total putts in 2014, while in 2015, Rory McIlroy was T-13th in putts, and James Hahn in 2016 was T-14th. In 2017 Justin Thomas was 6th in total putting, 4th in Strokes gained-putting, and 2nd in putting average at the PGA Championship. In 2018 Jason Day was first in total putting, and 2019 champion Max Homa was 2nd. In 2021 Rory McIlroy won and was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting.
• One of the keys to mastering Quail Hollow is playing well on the final four holes. Showing the difficulty of this stretch dubbed the “The Green Mile,” holes 16, 17, and 18 have been in the top 70 of the PGA Tour’s most challenging holes. Throw in the par 5, 15th. It’s a brutal stretch in which the last five champions have excelled on. How good? In 2021, Rory McIlroy was 1 over; in 2019, Max Homa was 1 under; in 2018, Jason Day was 3 under on the mile and 5 under on the last 4 holes. At the PGA Championship in 2017, Justin Thomas was 1 under on the last four holes. In 2016 James Hahn played the stretch in 1 over, the exact total as Rory McIlroy played it in 2015. J.B. Holmes played the stretch in 3 under; in 2013, Derek Ernst was four under; in 2012, Rickie Fowler was 3 under; in 2011, Lucas Glover was 1 under; and in 2010, Rory McIlroy was 3 under.
• Last, we have to look at the weather this week. Look for great weather early on with no storms or rain. But that changes over the weekend with showers rolling in. The good news, temperatures will be mild, around the low-70s each day, going up to 75 on Sunday with low humidity, and winds will be below 12 mph each day.
• Need for patience.  This is one of those courses that par is your friend, so don’t look for low scoring.