BlogAT&T Byron Nelson Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The AT&T Bryon Nelson field has a bit more marquee players than last year but I have to wonder if Craig Ranch is hurting them.  This is a tournament that had a unique niche on the PGA Tour.  Since 1968 it has been the most financially successful charity event on the PGA Tour, raising $180 million for its charity, the Salesmanship Club.  Between 1983 and 2017, it was played at TPC Las Colinas, a course that many PGA Tour players may not have loved but was an excellent spot for those that attended the tournament.  For the fans, they loved all of the locations they could watch golf in comfort, either under shady trees or in stands around the course.  They also loved the big party pavilion located off the 2nd hole, So for years, the AT&T Byron Nelson was the in-place for fans to watch golf.  The course also had excellent infrastructure, with a Four Seasons hotel behind the 18th green and the Las Colinas Sports Club.  These tended to erase the fact that the course wasn’t the gem-like Colonial Golf Club, 40 miles down the road in Ft. Worth, and the home to the Charles Schwab Challenge was.

For years between 1990 and 2006, the year Byron Nelson died, this event always attracted a great field, with many marquee names. That’s because Byron Nelson spent a lot of time recruiting players and always being a part of the tournament and sitting behind the 18th green to thank all the players for coming.  So for players, even though they didn’t like the course, they felt that they owed Byron Nelson their support each year.  Hey, even Tiger Woods showed up year after year.  But in 2007, after Byron Nelson passed away, that all changed.  Players started skipping the Nelson, and even though the lack of marquee names didn’t affect the bottom line of the tournament, fans still sold the week out the course just became a dirty secret for organizers.

So for years, the Salesmanship Club were always looking for a better facility, and the opportunity came knocking on their door when a new course was built in Dallas, Trinity Forest.  For years they watched the development of this course and finally worked out a deal to move the Byron Nelson to the new home in 2018.  The last year that the Nelson was played at TPC Las Colinas, they raised $6.8 million for charities.  So when they moved, they expected to roll along and not only be loved by those that attended the tournament, but they were hoping that players would love the course and, in future years, gain more marquee names.  But that never happened.  Despite the course being better than TPC Las Colinas, the tournament got a lousy slot in the schedule, and players avoided it.  On top of that, poor weather and the lack of a party atmosphere for those that attended the tournament created lower attendance.  Trinity Forest may have been a good course, but it had very few trees to shade the fans from the 95+ days in the first year.  So this event which was a money tree for its charities struggled, in 2018, it netted $4.8 million and then $3 million in 2019.  So tournament officials gave up on Trinity Forest when COVID canceled the Byron Nelson in 2020.  They first looked into going back to TPC Las Colinas, but they lost the tournament’s parking.  So they decided on a new course, TPC Craig Ranch, which had held two Korn Ferry Tour events and had some excellent infrastructure along with many shady trees.  Not only did the club, which is very private want to hold the event, but the town of McKinney, Texas, has stepped up to help this tournament be a success.  The first year was ok as more people attended even though officials put limits due to COVID-19 protocols.  But its charity profit went up as $5.5 million was raised in 2021 and 7.5 million last year.  So with no limitations to the gallery, the event is hoping for a bigger take for its charity.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic:

This will be the 69th edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic, which was formerly called the Dallas Open. The TPC at Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas was the primary site of the tournament between 1983 and 2017 when it moved to Trinity Forest Club.

The inaugural Dallas Open in 1944 was won by Byron Nelson by a whopping 12 strokes.  Three annual tournaments were staged with Nelson winning the first, then Snead winning the next, followed by Hogan winning in 1946.  After that, the city couldn’t find a sponsor for the tournament, and after a lapse of 10 years, James Ling sponsored the event beginning in 1956.  The tournament has been played every year since then except for 1963, when the PGA Championship was played in Dallas, and 1965 when the tournament was switched from September to the spring.  In 1967 the Salesmanship club took over sponsorship, and the following year the tournament was renamed after Byron Nelson, who was born just outside of Dallas and had a 630-acre ranch in Roanoke, Texas.  The tournament is the 9th oldest active event on the PGA Tour and, along with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is the only event named after former players.

So this is another drastic change for fans of this event, they enjoyed everything about TPC Four Seasons but didn’t like Trinity Forest.  So with the change now to TPC Craig Ranch tournament organizers is making sure that TPC Craig Rance will be even bigger and better for the fans and their charities.

Course information:

• TPC Craig Ranch
• McKinney, Texas
• 7,468 yards     Par 36-36–72

This is the second year of AT&T Byron Nelson being changed to its new home TPC Craig Ranch.  Tom Weiskopf designed the course, which opened in 2004.  In the years of planning and constructing it, the PGA Tour gave input on what the course needed to hold a tournament.  Frankly, the original owners wanted to hold a regular PGA Tour on it.  The property is massive and large enough to handle big crowds.  Each hole is framed with lots of trees down the side of it and despite being under 20 years old, looks very mature. The Rowlett Creek runs through the property, which creates more challenging shots.  The greens are average size at 6,800 feet and are fair with not much undulations.  The greens are bent, which will give players a more appealing feel.  83 bunkers dot the course, and for the players, if the weather is good, they can have their way with this course.  In 2021 in the weeks before the tournament, the growing season suffered from a hard freeze which stopped the rough growth, and help make the course a layup.  So in looking at the stats, 70.55% of the greens were hit by the field as it ranked 13th in most greens hit.  One of the reasons that happened was the lack of rough, and that won’t be the case this year.  Now the course will play to a par 72 and at 7,468 will be classified as a “Bombers Delight.”  So we are seeing a lot of long hitters in the field as they are thinking this course will be perfect for their game.  I still think that the secret to TPC Craig Ranch will be hitting fairways and greens.  In looking at the stats for those last year, seven of the top-12 players were in the top 10 in greens hit.  Another important stat is those that scramble well and find a way to get it up and down on greens missed.  65.67% of the field got it up and down on greens missed, and it was the 4th highest on tour.  Another reason that long hitters have an advantage in 2021, 2,007 birdies were made at TPC Craig Ranch, the most of any course on the PGA Tour.  So this translate to those that are the best in Par Breakers do well, in 2021 25.30% of the course had eagles and birdies made on the course, on four other courses had a higher average.

The one thing that many agree on is that the winner will have to use a lot of imagination to get around the course.  The course is a par 72 and will play at 7,468, and Weiskopf has put a gambling aspect to the design.  All four par 5s are accessible in two, giving players a chance for eagles as in 2021, the par 5s played to a 4.53 average, and eight courses saw easier par 5s.  All the top three in the standings in 2021 took advantage of this, winner K.H. Lee was 11 under on this, and runner-up Sam Burns played them in 15 under.  Along with the par 5s, there are three par 4s #3, #6 and #14, that could lead to birdies or even eagles.  If the PGA Tour moves up the tees on holes 6 & 14, they could be drivable, but the 14th hole with water down the left side could lead to double bogeys or more.  So you can see why we are calling this a bomber’s delight. There could be some great excitement with this course.

One big change to the course will be on the par 3 17th.  The Salesmanship Club has put in stands all around the par 3, giving it a touch of the 16th hole at WM Phoenix Open.  They are calling it the “Ranch 17,” and from pictures I have seen, the hole will be shall we say, very intimate.  They are saying they can have 6,000 spectators, and the stands are so close to the play it will be interesting to see the buzz it creates.  Still, you need to have marquee names, and that is still lacking this event which is not only a week before a major but a week from a designated event which means most of the marquee players are taking this week off.

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,900
• Tyrrell Hattan – $10,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,800
• Tom Kim – $9,600
• Jason Day – $9,400
• K.H. Lee – $9,300
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Si Woo Kim – $9,100
• Matt Kuchar – $9,000

First of all, I broke three ribs in a stupid fall last week.  Have to say never experienced as much minute-to-minute pain as this.  I am a lot better now, but sitting at a computer typing away is still not fun.  So we are going to be short, hopefully, pretty close to normal for next week’s PGA.

Have to say DraftKings has done a good job with the pricing this week, yes no argument about Scottie Scheffler being $11,900.  The problem with taking him is that we are left with just $38,100.  So that means we are only left with $7,620 for each of the other five players.  So if you are to pick Scheffler, he better earns over 100 DraftKings points.  Last year when Scheffler finished T-15th, he earned 118.5 points; in 2021, when he finished T-47th, he earned 86.5 points.  So yes, you will get a good share of points with Scheffler but will struggle with your other picks.  Frankly, you can do better with multiple picks of players like Tom Kim at $9,600, Jason Day at $9,400, K.H. Lee at $9,300, and Adam Scott at $9,200.  As for Lee, who has won this event the last two years, he earned 154.5 points last year and 147 points in 2021.  Lee finished T-8th last week in the Wells Fargo, so I have to say pick him.  I also like Adam Scott, who finished T-32nd last year at the Nelson but still earned 100 DraftKings points.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to say not much in the way of choices, I like Seamus Power at $8,900 because he has been steady on TPC Craig Ranch.  Tom Hoge at $8,500, has been consistent and makes a lot of cuts.  Stephan Jaeger at $8,200 was T-38th last year and was T-18th in Mexico, and T-27th at Wells Fargo.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $8,000, was T-12th last year at the Nelson and solid in 2023, was T-19th in his last event played at the Heritage.  Joseph Bramlett at $7,900, was T-51st last year and T-7th in 2021.

Are there any bargains out there?

Ben Griffin at $7,500, is playing for the first time at the Nelson. He has been steady all year.  Michael Kim at $7,500 is also playing well right now, he was 67th in his only TPC Craig Ranch start.  One last person is Jimmy Walker at $7,100, his game has come along, and he has been in the top-25 in his last four PGA Tour starts.

So what will it take to play well at TPC  Craig Ranch?

The ability to hit it long and leave yourself with a wedge into the greens.  Once you get them onto the green, make some putts.  This is a course that will allow a lot of birdies and eagles. Look for some really low scoring

Weather will be the key.

Look for some poor weather this week, every day will be in the low 80s with scattered Thunderstorms each day.  So anything could happen if there are a lot of delays.