BlogPGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Lot’s of buzz going into the PGA Championship. The biggest must be about the site, Oak Hill, and the recent revision they made to revert the course back to the original way it played when it first opened in 1926. Donald Ross was brilliant, and his courses had some unique appeal. Like the greens, most of Ross’s greens are small with a lot of undulation. Ross courses have some of the hardest and most penal; you hit it into a Ross bunker, and it’s going to be challenging getting it out and close to the hole. Another aspect of a Donal Ross course is driving it straight and avoiding the rough. This week the rough will play a significant role in the championship. That is because the rough is very thick and will make driving difficult. It’s not like it’s long, about three inches, but combining a fescue/Kentucky bluegrass and rye mix will make it very difficult if you have more than 140 yards left. Two problems hitting it into the rough creates. First is the greens’ size; they are small at 4,500 square feet and well guarded. Even if you are hitting a nine-iron, getting it on the green is impossible. That is with a nine-iron. Any other club will be impossible, so look for a player to gouge it out and, in most cases, hit it back into the fairway. Over the last 20 years, we have seen minimal courses with the capability of ensuring a player hits it into the fairway. A perfect example was at the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot. The rough wasn’t as lush as in past years, and Bryson DeChambeau took advantage of this. He was able to rear back and hit it hard and far. If it went into the rough, there was no problem because he could get through the shot and put the ball onto the green. So this is one of the reasons long hitters have won majors of late, they have a significant advantage, but that won’t help them this week. You won’t score well if you don’t hit it onto the fairway.

Oak Hill has a résumé of great players winning on the course. Great players have won at Oak Hill, starting with the 1941 Rochester Times Union won by Sam Snead and then in 1942 with Ben Hogan. Including Snead and Hogan, other winners at Oak Hill include Jack Nicklaus, Lee Trevino, Cary Middlecoff, and Curtis Strange. If you look at the six winners of the U.S. Open and PGA Championship held at Oak Hill, they all have a critical aspect of their games; they hit many fairways and greens. Even the longshot winners, Shaun Micheel, and Jason Dufner, were great ball strikers.

So with those thoughts, what will be the storylines for this week?

Jon Rham could be the best choice for this week

Have to say that Jon Rahm does have a significant advantage over everyone else in the field. He is on a roll; in the 30 events played in the 2023 season, Rahm has won four times, including the Masters. The key to his game is three-fold. Despite ranking 73rd in driving accuracy, he is the best driver in the field when you see that he is 19th in Strokes Gained off the tee and 2nd in Strokes Gained tee to green. On hitting greens, Rahm is 2nd this year in Greens in Regulation, and 3rd in Strokes Gained approach the green. The last key to his game is putting; he is 7th in Strokes Gained Putting. To top this out, Rahm is 1st in Strokes Gained Total, in which all Strokes Gained stats are used. So we can see why he is the favorite and possibly the best front-runner since Tiger Woods in his prime. All of this doesn’t matter if you don’t do the deed, and in his last 20 major starts going back to the 2018 Masters, Rahm has won twice, been in the top-five in seven times, and only missed three cuts, the last being the 2019 PGA Championship.

So Rahm has everything going for him except for one thing, we need to discuss now: the weather and how this will be a factor. The weather for the championship is a bit dodgy, but hey, playing a championship in upper New York in mid-May was always a crap shot. Everyone knew that anything was possible and that cold weather was likely. Rochester weather is notorious for its unpredictability in May. One year a surprise storm dumped 10 inches of wet snow on Mother’s Day. The latest snow measured in Rochester was May 19, 1976, when 0.4 inches fell. We aren’t going to get snow this year, but when the snow comes up on Thursday morning, temperatures will be around 35 degrees. So those playing in the morning will have to deal with this cold weather, as they will be at a severe disadvantage as temperatures will climb to 63 in the afternoon. Then if that isn’t enough, winds will be between 12 and 18 miles per hour on Friday afternoon with gusts up to 255 miles per hour. So those, including Rahm, who tees off at 8:33 on Thursday, will have a significant disadvantage. But Rahm had the same problem at the Masters and won, so anything is possible.

Scottie Scheffler, is he ready?

I am in a big pick-your-pro where the cost is high, but the payouts make it fun to play in. At the Match Play, I took Scottie Scheffler and was on pins and needles in each of his matches. His game from tee to green was flawless, but his putting was not there. In his semi-final match against Sam Burns, he won the 18th hole to send it into overtime. On the 2nd extra hole, Scheffler had a four-footer to win the match and missed. Since then, he has struggled, mostly with his putter, and at the Byron Nelson, he hit a few squirrely drives. Now I really can’t complain about a player that, in his last 13 starts, has won twice, finishing in the top-ten seven times, and his worst finish is T-12th. I can see that Scheffler is one of the best players in the world, and he will play well; I don’t think he will win this week; I think he is playing with his “B” game right now. Still not a wrong choice, and he will finish in the top ten.

What do we think about Rory?

I and nobody else knows what to think about Rory. He has always been a great player; he is a superstar. But whenever he gets to the level of being a world beater like Tiger Woods was, Rory stumbles. Rory played great in the fall, and when he won in Dubai in January, I thought it would be a banner year. But since then, he finished T-2nd at the Palmer, an event that he should have won, and then finished 3rd in the Match Play, again an event that was within capabilities to win. We could account for him missing the cut at the Players; yes, he spent too much time being a cheerleader for the PGA Tour in its fight with LIV golf. But when he shot 72-77 to miss the cut at the Masters, nobody could explain that. In small circles, the rumor was that Rory was burnt out, he withdrew from the Heritage, which could cost him up to $3 million because he missed two designated events, but he didn’t look very sharp at the Wells Fargo. So I don’t know what to say, my gut says that Oak Hill is tailor-made for his game, but if I choose him and he falters again, I look bad. But if I say to pass on him and he plays well, I look foolish. So I am going to play Switzerland on him and not say anything. As of this writing, I haven’t made any of my bets (I usually do them late Wednesday), so I could change my mind and make some bets on him, but as of right now, I need a good reason to do that. Sorry to cop out on you.

Jason Day, great win last week

What a great win for him at the Byron Nelson. He shot a final round 62 at the AT&T Byron Nelson to win by a shot over Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat. It’s been a long journey back from the abyss. As Day said afterward, there had been many times in the last three years he just thought of retiring but didn’t. He got healthy again and worked hard on his game. He began working with swing coach Chris Como at the end of 2020. The only goal to start was to get swinging pain-free and injury-free. It’s been a long ride back after suffering several injuries from neck and back problems, dealing with sinus problems, and bouts with vertigo. The latest bout came with dizziness at the Masters when he shot a final round 80. It’s been a long quest to regain the prominence he held in 2015 when he won five times, made it to the #1 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings, and had that position for 47 weeks. Day dropped to as low as 175th in the rankings before the start of the 2023 Shriners Children in October. Since then, Day has climbed back, and after his Nelson win was 20th in the rankings. I can see beautiful things for Day down the road, but not this week. Have to think that winning on Sunday took a lot out of him. You could see the anxiety lifted in his post-round celebration with his family and friends. It will carry over to this week, and he will be mentally off. After this, I think he will be great; he is my first choice right now for the U.S. Open; Los Angeles Country Club is perfect for his game. So take this week off from Jason and bet on him in future events.

Jordan Spieth how hurt is he?

Now this is a straightforward choice. Of course, everyone brings up the old story of beware of the injured golfer. But players with sore wrists, playing a course with thick rough that could screw up the wrist very quickly, is an easy call for me, sorry pass on Jordan. He arrived in Rochester on Monday night and was to play nine holes on Wednesday. He has told people if the wrist is sore, he won’t play, so we have to see what happens. But again, I don’t see this working.

The defending champion Justin Thomas, will he putt well this week?

We have heard very little about the defending champion, as Thomas has only finished in the top ten twice in 2023 (4th at Phoenix, T-10th at Valspar). Thomas’s big problem has been putting; he has no confidence with the short stick. Things have gotten so bad he has now changed some things. Going into the Wells Fargo, Thomas ranked 152nd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting, losing an average of .225 strokes to the field. While at home, he got together with putting coach John Graham and the inventor of the AimPoint system, and they spent two days working on the system. It’s a way for players to get accustomed to the feel of the slope on the greens to determine how much break to play. Thomas used the system at Wells Fargo, and his putting was a bit better as Thomas finished T-14th. He was 29th in Strokes Gained putting, which is a bit better than he has been for the year. Still, for the week, he made 64 out of 71 putts inside ten feet, so again, a bit of help. I don’t see Thomas winning this week; I think it’s going to take a few reps before Thomas gets things together, frankly believe that Los Angeles Country Club, the site of next week’s U.S. Open, is an excellent venue for him, and I see him contending them, just not this week.

Some longshots

Have two names to tell you about, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka.  See both of these guys contending and winning. They have the game; they have played before at Oak Hill; Johnson was T-8th in the 2013 PGA Championship. So don’t be caught off guard by these two; they will be content.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Tournament information:

This is the 104th edition of this event, one of golf’s four major championships. It’s the third oldest behind the British Open and U.S. Open. The plans for the PGA Championship were created on January 16, 1916, at a meeting of a group of PGA Tour professionals, including Walter Hagen. Their vision was to create a national championship that would rival the U.S. Open in terms of importance. Their dream became a reality just months later as the first PGA Championship Match Play event was played at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, NY, that year. Englishman Jim Barnes took home the inaugural crown.

After the inaugural tournament, the event took a two-year break from 1917 to 1918 because of World War I. The break-in action didn’t phase Jim Barnes, as he went on to win the PGA Championship in its return to the Tour in 1919. Since the two-year hiatus, The PGA Championship has only seen one other break in 1943 due to World War II. The most significant change in the event’s history occurred in 1958 when the format changed from Match Play to 72-hole stroke play.

The famed Wanamaker trophy, awarded to the winner of the PGA Championship, can trace its routes back to the beginning of golf equipment. In the early 20th Century, A.G. Spalding & Bros. was the predominant maker of golf equipment; however, Rodman Wanamaker sought to create a company that would rival Spalding in the golf industry. Though his plan ultimately failed, his dream will always be remembered as he was the one that first sponsored the PGA Championship and the trophy which today bears his name.

Course information:

• Oak Hills C.C. (East Course)
• Rochester, New York
• 7,394 yards     Par 35-35–70

In the middle 1920s, Donald Ross was hired to build two golf courses on 350 barren, treeless acres. He built two wonderful courses with the east course being very special.  What makes it so special is all of the events it has held.  The very first one was the 1941 Rochester Times Union won by Sam Snead and then in 1942 with Ben Hogan.  Since then Oak Hill is the only club to have played host to the U.S. Open, PGA Championship, Ryder Cup, U.S. Amateur, Senior U.S. Open and Senior PGA Championship.

Here is a look at the major Championships held at Oak Hill:

• 1949 U.S. Amateur won by Charles Coe
• 1956 U.S. Open won by Cary Middlecoff
• 1968 U.S. Open won by Lee Trevino
• 1980 PGA Championship won by Jack Nicklaus
• 1984 Senior Open won by Miller Barber
• 1989 U.S. Open won by Curtis Strange
• 1995 Ryder Cup won by Europe
• 1998 U.S. Amateur won by Hank Kuehne
• 2003 PGA Championship won by Shaun Micheel
• 2008 Senior PGA Championship won by Jay Haas
• 2013 PGA Championship won by Jason Dufner
• 2019 Senior PGA Championship won by Ken Tanigawa

Below in our key fantasy stats we have more on Oak Hill.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Oak Hill:

The PGA Championship returns to Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York, 10 years after Jason Dufner won by two shots over Jim Furyk. Oak Hill Country Club is hosting the PGA Championship for the fourth time, having previously done so in 1980, 2003, and 2013. Only Southern Hills, the site of last year’s PGA Championship, has hosted this championship as often (five times). Oak Hill CC has also hosted three U.S. Open Championships (1956, 1968, 1989). Only three other clubs have hosted at least three PGA Championships and three U.S. Opens: Oakmont (3 PGA, 9 US), Oakland Hills (3 PGA, 6 US), and Southern Hills (5 PGA, 3 US). Jack Nicklaus won the 1980 PGA Championship at Oak Hill CC, while Lee Trevino won the U.S. Open in 1968. The only other club at which Nicklaus and Trevino won major championships is Muirfield, at which Nicklaus and Trevino won British Opens in 1966 and 1972.

Talking about returning to Oak Hill, 33 in the field this week also played in 2013. The prominent players are Adam Scott (T-5th), Dustin Johnson (T-8th), Jason Day (T-8th), Rory McIlroy (T-8th), Keegan Bradley (T-19th), Rickie Fowler (T-19th), Hideki Matsuyama (T-19th), Matt Kuchar (T-22nd), Webb Simpson (T25th), Justin Rose (T-33rd), Shane Lowry (T57th), Brooks Koepka (T-70th), Phil Mickelson (T-72nd), and Gary Woodland (74th). Other prominent players who played but missed the cut include Jordan Spieth, Billy Horschel, Luke Donald, and Russell Henley. Going even further, seven players in this year’s field played at Oak Hill in 2003: Shaun Micheel (Won), Luke Donald (T-23rd), Adam Scott (T-23rd), Phil Mickelson (T-23rd), Padraig Harrington (T-29th), Paul Casey (66th), and Justin Rose (missed cut).

In the middle 1920s, Donald Ross was hired to build two golf courses on 350 barren, treeless acres. While creating the courses, Ross inspired a local lad, Robert Trent Jones, to become an architect. At 18 years old, Jones was the leading golfer in the Rochester area. His dream was to be the best golfer in the world, and it was shattered when a doctor told him he had developed an ulcer and had to give up competitive golf. Not knowing what to do with his life, he thought it would be nice to design golf courses. At about this time, he heard of the two courses under construction at Oak Hill and decided to see what was happening. After convincing him that Jones is serious, Jones meets Ross and shows him the course. Ross took the time to explain what he was doing, and with this meeting, Jones decided to make it his life’s work.
He returned to Rochester in the 1950s and extensively changed every hole except the 14th hole. Jones also extended the length of the course by almost 400 hundred yards and reduced the par from 72 to 70.
In 1975 the club brought in George and Tom Fazio for further alterations. They revised several holes, most notably the fifth and sixth holes.

Over the years, the one thing that Oak Hill is famous for is its trees. When Ross built the course, the land was treeless. Member Dr. John Williams was a botanist and made it his personal project to cover the property with trees. In his backyard, Williams planted seeds and raised them to saplings. He then transplanted them to the course. People began sending him seeds and acorns worldwide as the project became better known. Williams even got one from a tree planted by George Washington at Mount Vernon. With his hard work, Williams transplanted the barren landscape into a forest with over 80,000 trees on the Oak Hill property. When the PGA was played in 2013, over 34,000 trees were on the East Course of Oak Hill.

But in 2015, things changed. In its first 90 years, the Donald Ross course evolved from the original ways that Ross built the course in 1934. With the growth of trees and the changes made by other architects, the course differed from the course that Donald Ross built. The membership wanted to resurrect the way Ross first created the course and hired an unknown architect, Andrew Green. He went through the archives, looked through photos, and understood what the course was like in the 20s. Starting in 2019, many of the 34,000 trees were removed, mostly around tees and greens, to get better sun, eliminate the claustrophobic conditions, and make for better crowd movement. Now this sounds sinister when you think of all the beautiful oaks, elms, and maples on the property. But Oak Hill followed the lead of two famous courses, Oakmont in Pittsburg and Winged Foot outside New York. These two are some of the most treasured courses in the world, and their tree elimination made the course much better.

Another thing that Green did was to change holes 5, 6, and 15 and revert them to the original Donald Ross design. Green also redid all 18 greens and reverted them to how Donald Ross originally built them. The restoration also included reshaping the bunkers and adding chipping areas around the greens. All of the greens, a combination of bentgrass/Poa Annua, reverted to pure bentgrass. Green also restored the shapes and contours of the greens, reverting them to how they were when the course opened close to 90 years ago. Green was also able to add 231 yards from what the course played in the 2013 PGA Championship. The course has two par 5s, the 4th at 615 yards and the 13th at 623 yards. Both won’t be considered “lay-up” holes as birdies will be well-earned. Of the 12 par 4s, four of them are over 480 yards (6th, 9th, 17th & 18th) and just two holes (12th & 14th) are under 400 yards. The 14th is a drivable par-4, and PGA officials will allow players a chance to drive the hole. The hole is steeply uphill, with bunkers fronting the green and a newly designed short grass roll-off. The green is two-tier, and it will be challenging to hold the ball onto the top tier.

Driving will be challenging, and media members on the course on Monday report that the rough is very thick and will make driving difficult. Some are comparing the course to the way Bethpage Black was played in the 2019 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka. Eliminating so many of the trees in the fairway will mean that many shots into the greens will have to be gouged out of the thick fescue/Kentucky bluegrass, rye mix.

So the first thing to consider is how different Oak Hill is compared to when the PGA was played in 2013. Back then, the course played to a 72.00 scoring average. The 2003 PGA Championship played even harder to a 74.55 average, but we have to remember that 25 club pros were in the field in 2003 and 20 in 2013. Still, an average of close to par would be acceptable for the week.

So we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed at Oak Hills this week. The things to watch for, accuracy will be the key to winning this week, not only in driving accuracy but precious iron play into the greens. This course will demand a great shotmaker, and when you miss a green, you will have to show the skill of handling both sand play and pitch shots from chipping areas around the green. If that isn’t enough, a poor putter won’t cut it on this course. The greens have a lot of undulations and mounds, and since the greens are small at 4,500 square feet, there won’t be any long, lag-putting. The greens will be fast and take a lot of nerves to make most of those nasty five and six-footers.

So this is based on the most important stats for Oak Hills, based on what I feel is essential, and using data from all the players in this week’s field with stats from 2023. Of course, weather plays a factor in scoring, and the course did have a good amount of rain in April, but it’s been dry in May. Since it’s being played in mid-May, it will be cold in Rochester. On Tuesday, high winds with gusts up to 30-35 mph will help dry out the course. Rain is expected to come in Friday evening, with showers likely over the weekend. On some good news, it will only get into the mid-50s on Wednesday and won’t get much above 70 during the week.

Since it’s essential to not only keep it in the fairway but also drive it far, I use a stat that is a bit old and not used much, but I feel crucial Total Driving which adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two necessary items for the week. In 2013 Jason Dufner won the PGA Championship, and he did it with his ball-striking skills from tee to green. He was the 25th longest driver of the week and was T-18th in Driving Accuracy.
Our second category is Greens in Regulation, the number of greens hit from the fairway. To score and score well on this course, hitting greens is critical. Dunfer showed that as a key in his victory as he hit 54 of the 72 greens and was 3rd in that stat for the week.
Our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This combines all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens, which have close to 38 of them around them. Those stats weren’t available in 2013, but Dufner was 12th in scrambling and T-73rd in Sand Save Percentage.
Our last category is stroked Gained Putting. This is an excellent way of determining how a player does overall on the greens, and since putting is vital to winning at Oak Hill, I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Total Driving: It adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way to determine how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt, and coming up with a stroke figure.

The 97 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023. There are no stats for the 20 club pros in the field and foreign players.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all of the player stats

Who has earned the most DraftKings points

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Byron Nelson (We don’t include team events), a total of 68 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least nine events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,400
• Scottie Scheffler – $11,200
• Rory McIlroy – $10,700
• Collin Morikawa – $10,300
• Brooks Koepka – $10,100
• Xander Schauffele – $9,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
• Jordan Spieth – $9,600
• Tony Finau – $9,500
• Justin Thomas – $9,400
• Cameron Smith – $9,300
• Cameron Young – $9,200
• Viktor Hovland – $9,100
• Sungjae Im – $9,000

There is no surprise with Jon Rahm at $11,400 and Scottie Scheffler at $11,200 being our top guys.

Rahm has been on a tear the last four months with four victories, one coming at the Masters. Rahm says he loves the course; he is the best driver in the game right now, so we have to believe he will be content. He averages 91.2 DraftKings points per event, so that you will get a lot out of him. Yes, he is a boatload of money, but he won’t disappoint. Scottie Scheffler – $11,200 is a lot of money, and he should do well for you, but I don’t think he will win, and who knows, last year he was the favorite at Southern Hills and missed the cut. I don’t see that happening, but we all never know. Rory McIlroy at $10,700 is a big mystery to me. Sure, he is worth the money, but we don’t know which McIlroy will show up this week, the one that is always in contention or the McIlroy that missed the cut at the Players and Masters. I am not touching him this week; best for you to heed that advice. Collin Morikawa at $10,300 will disappoint you; not playing well now. His putting is terrible. For the last year and a half, he only averages 68.9 DraftKings points, so best to pass on him. Brooks Koepka at $10,100 is my primary choice after Rahm showed us a lot at the Masters, and I think Oak Hill is perfect for his game; expect good things for him this week. The same with Xander Schauffele at $9,900 he is playing well right now and has the game to win. If he can make a few more putts, nobody will beat him. Ditto for Patrick Cantlay at $9,700. This course is a lot like Caves Valley, Sherwood C.C., Muirfield Village, East Lake, and Wilmington C.C., all places he won. He has the game. If he putts, he will win. Jordan Spieth is at $9,600. All we need to know is that he has a ginger wrist; he will not be good this week. Tony Finau at $9,500 gives me mixed emotions. He has struggled in PGA Championships and U.S. Opens. I don’t think he has the game for high-pressure events like the majors. But what will make up your mind? He averages 79.6 DraftKings points, so not worth the cost. Justin Thomas, at $9,400, has not played well in 2023, and I can’t see him doing well. Yes, go to the AimPoint system in putting, but it’s too early in that transition to help us this week. Cameron Smith at $9,300 is a big no for me. First, he never plays well at the PGA Championship or U.S. Open; he is too wild off the tee. So on this course, it will make him look even worst. Many folks will back Cameron Young at $9,200. Sorry, I don’t think he will do well this week. Haven’t played well since the Masters; wait and take him to the U.S. Open at L.A.C.C., which will be better for him. The same with Viktor Hovland at $9,100; he just is not playing well enough now. Usually, Sungjae Im at $9,000 is too high, but he has played well lately. If you want a winner or a runner-up, don’t pick Im. But if you’re looking for a top-15, he is your man.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Many will take Jason Day at $8,900 based on the fact that he won last week. But as I said above in talking about Day, I think he will be drained after winning last week and sluggish this week, so take a pass on him. Dustin Johnson at $8,800 this week is well worth the money. He is perfect for Oak Hill finishing T-8th in 2013, and I think he will be in the running this week; he is a must-pick. Guess we will see if Max Homa, at $8,700, can play well in a major. Frankly, there are too many better bargains, and it’s best to pass on him.  The same with Hideki Matsuyama at $8,600.  He has the game to do well at Oak Hill but still has to worry about his back; take a pass on him. An excellent pick Tyrrell Hatton at $8,500, his game is looking good, and he plays well on tight courses. Same with Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,400; he proved it last year in winning at Brookline; he can play well on demanding courses that reward good drivers like Fitzpatrick. Tommy Fleetwood at $8,000 is an excellent buy, playing well and finishing T-5th at the Wells Fargo. He was T-5th last year at Southern Hills, much like Oak Hill. Corey Conners, at $7,900, is also a good player for a course like Oak Hill. Adam Scott at $7,800 is a big must to take. He was T-23rd at Oak Hill in the 2003 PGA and T-5th at Oak Hill at the 2013 PGA; he is playing well, and if he can make a few putts, he will be in the running. Rickie Fowler at $7,600 is a terrific buy; I can see some great things from Fowler this week. Talor Gooch, at $7,600, is also a good buy, he has played well this month on LIV golf and wants to make the U.S. Open, so he needs to play well this week.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the PGA Championship

We also have to find some cheap players to make the cut and give you some points. Off the bat-like Thomas Detry, at $7,400, has done some nice things and does make cuts. Harris English, at $7,200, plays well on challenging courses and will make the cut. Tom Hoge at $6,900 is a good buy. He makes a lot of cuts and can play well on difficult courses. He was T-9th last year at the PGA Championship. Matt Kuchar, at $6,900, is a great bargain, he makes a lot of cuts and was T-22nd at Oak Hill in 2013, plus he has been playing well of late. Harold Varner III at $6,600 is a big bargain, he has played well on LIV golf and does well on challenging courses.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Oak Hill:

• Long hitters don’t have an advantage at Oak Hill because accuracy is more important than length. First, the course will play at 7,394 yards; with the wind, the fairways will have a lot of roll, so length shouldn’t be a factor. What makes the course hard is the tight fairways with little greens. Lots of par 4s; if you do well on the Par 4s over the year, you will do well this week. So shot placement is essential. Look at the list of major champions at Oak Hill; every one of them controls the driver getting the ball in the fairway, which is the key. So that is the reason many feel that Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, or Scottie Scheffler could win this week.
• Look at the top ten of the Total Driving stat of the PGA Tour,  I think that the winner is in the top-15 on this list.
• Since the greens are tiny, they will also be tough to hit and hold. Sharp iron play will also help with the imagination when you get in trouble. But as we have seen in the last five PGA’s with winners as diverse as Phil Mickelson, Colin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Thomas, anything can happen. The key is to be peaking about Wednesday, right before the start of the championship. That’s what happens to the winners.
• Scrambling will be at a premium; look for good chippers like Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, or Matt Kuchar will have a significant advantage here.
• Putting is always a key to winning, but this year, with greens that are smaller than average, the longest putt will be from 40 feet, thus giving players more chances to make putts.
• There is also the unknown factor in which the course could yield low scores to an unknown player. In 8 of the last 14 PGA’s, the winner has claimed his first major in the PGA Championship, so this could be a good omen for Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, or Max Homa. As we said, both Jimmy Walker and Jason Dufner weren’t household names when they won, so you never know if that will get repeated.
• Weather will play a factor as the conditions will see cold mornings, lots of wind, temperatures barely over 72, and some rain.
• Of course, at the end of the day, a player that drives the ball long and straight and will make almost all of his putts inside 8 feet will win. That is very easy to say. Is there a human being that can do that? There will be a few, but we won’t know until the weekend.