BlogCharles Schwab Challenge Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Championship gave us a lot of great stories. From Brooks Koepka winning to Michael Block elevating how we think of club professionals, it was an exciting week at the PGA Championship. But first, we have to talk about what a great course Oak Hill has turned into. The course has held a lot of major championships on it over the last 60 years. Still, with the new look in which Andrew Green restored the Oak Hill to the way Donald Ross intended it to play a hundred years ago, it came out as one of the best courses to hold a major over the last decade. The only problem is when will the next major happen at Oak Hill? The PGA of America has named courses through 2029, with 2031 and 2034 being played at Congressional and PGA Frisco. Supposedly they have just about promised 2030 to Bethpage, so there isn’t a date open till 2032. The same with the USGA; they have the courses already picked out through 2030, with 2033, ’35, ’37, and ’39 already promised. So it could be a while before Oak Hill gets another major.

As for Michael Block, he was a breath of fresh air when you consider that we have never had a club pro contend in the final round 71 was very respectable, and with him just four years away from Senior Golf, we can see his future is very bright.

Victor Hovland

Have to think he is long overdue to win again, which could be in a major. He has contended in the last three, starting at St. Andrews last year. He got lost with Cameron Smith playing so well on the back nine to win; Hovland played his last six holes in two over, while Smith played his final nine holes in six under par, with Hovland finishing T-4th. At the Masters, Hovland opened up with a 65 but stumbled with 73 in the second round. He got himself back into contention with a 70 but couldn’t get rolling in the final round; his double bogey at six took him out of contention as he could only play his last 12 holes in even par to finish T-7th. At the PGA, it was a simple case that Brooks Koepka was too good. Hovland finished T-2nd, shooting a final round 68, which included a double bogey on the 16th hole. But overall, he made tremendous strides to make us think he will win in the next few weeks. With the U.S. Open next month at Los Angeles Country Club, you have to wonder if Hovland is a person to consider. He is just five years from winning the U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach and has to think that Hovland’s game will match up with the challenge at Los Angeles Country Club. Already you have to believe that since the course will play a lot like Oak Hill with a player having to be the best from tee to green, Hovland could win there. One thing to think about, many will pick Hovland this week at Colonial, and I have to believe that isn’t the right move, so be smart and wait for the Open. He is going to play at Memorial but hasn’t shown that the course suits him, but you never know.

Scottie Scheffler

That is another excellent run for Scottie. He played great in three of the four rounds, and if it wasn’t for him struggling in the rain on the front nine, the story could have been different. Scheffler was five under in his first 36 holes and six under for his final 29 holes; just that stretch between one and seven on Saturday did him in. With Brooks winning the PGA and with the run that Jon Rahm has had, including winning the Masters, Scheffler has been lost. In his last 14 events going back to November at Mayakoba, he hasn’t finished worst than 12th. He has two wins (Phoenix & Players), two seconds (Hero & PGA), and seven top-five finishes, and he hasn’t labored at all in this stretch. In this run, he is 175 under par in 52 rounds. In those rounds, he has had 37 rounds in the 60s and over par in just four of these rounds. In the 12 stroke play events, he is a total of 43.47 under the field average, and his worst under-field average total was 1.17 under the 68.92 field average at the Sentry T of C and as good as 8.73 under par in his Phoenix win, where the field average was 70.98. If you are a draft Kings player and have bet on Scheffler, he has rewarded you. In his 14 events since Mayakoba, he has a total of 1,527.2 points which averages out to 109.1 points per event. His worst production was earning 72.5 points in his T-12th at the Genesis. His best was 191.2 at the Match Play, which is a bit deceiving since he played in seven rounds during the week. His next-best total was 133.0 points in his Phoenix win. In his 14 starts, he has earned 100+ points in eight of his 14 starts. His average for the year is 109.1 points, so he has done great. Still, the problem is that his average cost over the 14 events is $10,957. At the Byron Nelson, he was $11,900, at the PGA, he was $11,200 and this week at Colonial, is $11,500. Yes, he has been great; he is a bit lost because of the outstanding play of Jon Rahm, but he is still one to consider the best on tour right now.

A person to consider at Colonial that nobody will see

Going into the Charles Schwab have to think that the dark horse will be Justin Rose. He has always been a consistent player. One of the things that has held him at bay is his back, which has been a problem over the last five years. But Rose has worked hard to figure out how to swing the club to avoid any problems; this year, he has had a productive year. Of course, we know about his win at Pebble Beach, but the year has been good. In 13 starts, he has missed three cuts, but in the other 10, he has seven top-25 finishes, and he was in the running on Sunday at Oak Hill. He finished T-9th at the PGA Championship and had a good run going into the final round. After six holes, he was two under for the day and 4 under; after the seventh hole was just four back of Koepka.  But Rose played his last 12 holes in three over un route to shooting 71. I like Rose because he won at Colonial in 2018, and the course suits his game. He doesn’t hit far, which is fine for Colonial, but when Rose is on his game, he can go low at Colonial. So watch him play well.

Rory McIlroy

After struggling over the last few weeks, Rory was better at Oak Hill. He opened with a 71 and played his final 54 holes in three under par. Rory finished T-7th and was never in contention, but he played well enough to finish well. His game still seems a bit lost. His driving wasn’t crisp, and he was T-12th in greens hit. On top of that, his putting was not sharp as he was 31st in Strokes Gained putting and was T-36th in putting inside ten feet, making 66 of 74 putts. One of the reasons you can see that Rory is not playing well, he only won 72 DraftKings points, a sign that things aren’t perfect. As we look forward to the U.S. Open, L.A. Country Club should be perfect for Rory, but again his game hasn’t been sharp since the Arnold Palmer. So he has a lot of work ahead of him, but if he could find the same magic he had earlier in the year, he will contend. If not, Rory will continue to struggle and find himself not in the running on the final day.

Mixed emotions about Brooks winning

This week was the Brooks Koepka we expected to see at a major. The player who dominates and is always in control and as cool as a cucumber. We saw this over the first 36 holes at the Masters, and then he stumbled. Koepka told the media that he lost a lot of sleep in the days after the Masters, trying to figure out what went wrong. He got his answer at the PGA Championship. Now Koepka struggled in his start, he was three over par after 12 holes on Thursday, and it looked like he could miss the cut, not win. But Koepka reached back and found a way to save the round; he birdied the 14th hole and shot 72 in a round that could have easily been a 74 or 75. Koepka won this week differently. He did it with his iron play in his four previous major victories. He led the field in greens hit in his 2017 U.S. Open win and in his 2019 PGA Championship victory. In his 2018 U.S. Open win, he was 4th, and in this 2018 PGA Championship victory was T-15th.  But at Oak Hill, he struggled, hitting only 44 of 72 greens and ranked T-29th.  Where Koepka excelled was around the greens. He was 4th in Strokes Gained around the green as he was T-4th in scrambling. In the 28 greens he missed, he got it up and down 19 times, which meant he picked up six full shots over the field. On the greens, Koepka was good; he was 13th in Strokes Gained Putting and, from the inside ten feet range, made 62 of 67 putts. Koepka did the job by not making worst than a bogey, while his 18 birdies were the best in the field. Another key to winning was his play on the back nine at Oak Hill; he was nine-under two shots better than anybody else. Since winning the 2017 U.S. Open, Koepka has won five times, finished runner-up four times, and been in the top four 11 times, an incredible 50% of the 22 majors since Erin Hills. So how good is this? Since turning pro in 1997, Tiger has played in 85 majors, winning 15 times, being runner-up seven times, and 32 top-four finishes which is a 37.6% average, way below Koepka.  Phil Mickelson has played in 115 majors as a professional, won six times, been runner-up 12 times, and 27 times in the top-four, which is a 23.4% clip, again great for all of us mortals but half of the clip of Koepka.

Koepka’s place in golf’s history books is set with each passing major. Koepka is the third player to win three or more PGA Championships in the stroke play era, joining Jack Nicklaus (five wins) and Tiger Woods (four). He’s the third player to win the PGA Championship three times in a six-year span, joining Nicklaus and Walter Hagen. He’s also one of just five players in history to win the PGA three or more times and the U.S. Open more than once. Only seven players since 1950 have won five or more men’s majors before age 34: Woods, Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Tom Watson, Gary Player, Arnold Palmer, and Koepka.

Koepka won four majors in just over two years but in eight starts. After finishing T-6th at the British Open in 2021, Koepka injured himself, and golf has been a struggle. Brooks made a tough decision to play LIV golf. Frankly, in my mind, the decision was an easy win; he was hurt, there was no guarantee that he would be able to come back, and he was offered, in some circles, a reported $100 million. That is stupid money, even for a player as talented as Brooks Koepka, who at the time, was injured. Today the $100 million looks like a great deal for LIV golf, especially when you realize that they paid Phil Mickelson a reported $200 million; he has played in 14 LIV events, and his best finish is T-8th. I watched the series that Netflix did in its “Full Swing” documentary earlier in the year. In watching it then, I wondered if Brooks was a bit disappointed that he is playing for LIV golf. Sure, he is making a boatload of money; he has a limited schedule of events to play in. But Brooks, like Tiger Woods, feels the importance of doing well in the majors. For that to happen, they do need some prep, and when Brooks stumbled at the Masters, I had to think that Brooks didn’t have the same intense prep work that the PGA Tour gives players.

As he flew home to Florida, I had to wonder if Brooks had any doubts about his deal playing LIV golf. According to Sports Illustrated, Koepka’s deal runs through 2025, and there is a penalty clause in the contract that says if Brooks wants to return to the PGA Tour, he and many others like Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, who have big deals are required to pay between to three times the value of their contract. So if Brooks decided to return, it would cost him $300 million to get out of the deal. So it will be interesting to see how things play out in the months and years down the road. But we know one thing, Brooks is back to being his dominant self, and things will be interesting over the next two majors.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about The Charles Schwab Challenge and Colonial:

This is the 76th year of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Commonly referred to as the Colonial National, it’s not the oldest event on the PGA Tour in longevity. Several events have been played longer. As for the same course, Augusta National and the Masters can claim to have been played on the same course longer on the PGA Tour, with Colonial being the second longest length of a course for a tournament. Colonial does have one distinction it’s the only course in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975), and the U.S. Women’s Open (1991).

The tournament got started in 1946 when it was apparent that the USGA wasn’t going to make Colonial an annual stop. The event was the inspiration of John Marvin Leonard, who operated a store in downtown Fort Worth and wanted to see the best golfers in the world play on his course. Having Ben Hogan win its first two events gave the event and the course the recognition that it needed.

Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course got the name “Hogan’s Alley.” At one time, Hogan practically held every record of the tournament. In the 21 times, Hogan played at Colonial, his highest finish was a T-56th in his last appearance in 1970 at the age of 58. Over Hogan’s career, he won 54 tournaments, with the last victory coming in the 1959 Colonial. One of Hogan’s most enduring records at Colonial was the 65 he shot in the 3rd round in 1948. It took seven years for someone to tie the record when Chandler Harper did it in 1955, and it took 22 years for someone to beat the record when Dale Douglass did it with his 63 in 1970. Hogan loved Colonial and became a due-paying member of the club. So it’s no surprise that the greatest of Ben Hogan’s life and golf career is celebrated in the Hogan Room with an audio-visual presentation of his career and some memories of his career, including clubs and replicas of all the trophies and medals.

Now the history of Ben Hogan and Colonial didn’t start with his win in 1946. It was started in the early 1930s when a young Ben Hogan decided to play on the PGA Tour. He received financial backing from Marvin Leonard, the man who built Colonial. Hogan wasn’t a big success; many times, he was forced to drop off the tour and take a job to earn enough money to rejoin the tour. However, as soon as Hogan began making money on tour, he offered to settle his account with Leonard, who told him to forget about the money. However, in the 1950s, Hogan was able to pay back Leonard in an even bigger way. After Hogan launched the Ben Hogan golf equipment company, he offered Leonard the opportunity to purchase 50 percent of the company. Leonard seized the opportunity and, along with Hogan, made a handsome profit when the company was sold to AMF in 1960.

The Colonial Country Club was the vision of Leonard, a native of Fort Worth. He was considered a “workaholic” in the 1920s when his doctor told him he needed to slow down his pace. Leonard turned to golf and joined Glen Garden Golf Club and Rivercrest Country Club, the best courses of the time in Fort Worth. As Leonard’s interest in golf grew, he became more interested in all aspects of the course, including the types of grass. In the south, Bentgrass was thought to be impossible to grow, so all of the courses in Texas were Bermuda, which tended to be bumpy. Leonard thought it would be a good idea to have bent grass, and in trying to get Rivercrest to change, the club president got tired of the requests and told him, Marvin, if you’re so sold on bentgrass, why don’t you go build your own golf course and put it on that course?” So in 1934, Leonard did just that.

He acquired 157 acres in Southwest Fort Worth and hired golf architect John Bredemus to build him a championship course. On January 29, 1936, the course was opened, and many thought it could be one of the most magnificent courses in the world. In the late 30s, Leonard also felt that Colonial was the best and lobbied the USGA to hold the U.S. Open at Colonial. Even though the Open was never played in the South, when Leonard offered $25,000 to hold the event at Colonial, it was given the 1941 Open. To make sure that the course withstood the challenge of the best players in the world in 1940, he called in Perry Maxwell to redo holes 3, 4 & 5.

Even with the rain that hampered the Open, it was a big success, and plans to start a yearly tournament at Colonial were talked about, but plans were put on hold because of World War II. When the war ended, the club decided to hold the Colonial National Invitational and to add some prestige, offered a purse of $15,000, the third-largest sum on the PGA Tour. With a first-place check of $3,000 awaiting the winner, a field of 32 players teed off with Ben Hogan winning. Since then, 75 Colonials have been held with the course pretty much the same as it was in 1941, with some minor revisions that were implemented in 1969 when several holes along the Trinity River were damaged by flooding.

One of the biggest distinctions of the Charles Schwab is the number of great players who have won it. In the 75 years of this event, 61 different players have won. Of those 61, 30 have won a major championship, and out of all of the winners, 16 are in the World Golf Hall of Fame, so this event has a great resume of past champions. Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years has won at Colonial (with the exception of Tiger Woods). The list includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Roberto De Vicenzo, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Justin Rose, Ben Crenshaw, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson to name a few.

Now this event almost was lost when tournament host Dean & Deluca begged out of their sponsorship a few years early. Frankly, when I heard that Dean & Deluca was sponsoring a tournament in Texas, it made no sense. You see Dean & Deluca is a bunch of high-end stores like Whole Foods or Wegmans, but they are mostly in the New York area. They were planning on putting one in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but when those plans went away, so did Dean & Deluca on the PGA Tour. As we can see with tournaments like Houston, you could be rolling along in great shape, but then your sponsor decides it’s not worth the $10 million a year investment, and that event is in trouble. The good news, the Colonial found a new sponsor in time for the 2018 and with Charles Schwab will continue on the PGA Tour as they have signed on to 2026.

Course information:

Colonial Country Club

Fort Worth, Texas

7,209 yards     Par 35-35–70

The Colonial has a 75.1 rating and a slope rating of 138 from the championship tees. The course is very private. The tees, Fairways, and rough are Bermuda Grass while the greens are Bent.

It was designed and built by John Bredemus, with Perry Maxwell doing some touch-up work, and opened in 1936.  There were some minor revisions in 1969 to some of the holes to prevent flooding from the nearby Trinity River.

In 2000, the club completed a two-year course renovation, which started in November of 1998 when they installed a new irrigation system.  The primary work was done in rebuilding all 18 greens with new A-4 bentgrass.  They also redesigned and rebuilt all 84 bunkers, giving them a new definition so that they will be seen from tees and fairways.

All of the green and bunker work was done three weeks after the 1999 tournament ended, with the membership not having the full course reopen until April 1st of 2000. The club has also planted close to a hundred trees that won’t be in play but in years to come, will help define the holes.

We usually don’t talk about technology in golf, but when we talk about Colonial, one of the reasons for it losing its fear factor is technology.  Colonial is one of golf’s treasured layouts that can’t keep up with technology.  The course sits next to the Trinty River on the north and houses on the East, South, and West of it, so there is no way to add any yardage.  So the course is at the mercy of mother nature, if it gets windy, the course will play tough, but if not it’s easy.  We go more into detail on this later.

This course for years was feared by all the touring pros; if you look at the winning score pre-1996, you saw years in which the winner was 7, 8, 9, and 10 under.  However, starting in 1997, every year but two (8 under in 1999 and 9 under in 2014) saw scores in the double digits for the winners showing how easy the course got.

One advantage the course has is being short. Most of the holes at Colonial are doglegs, so the driver is taken out of the hands of players, which means most of the holes you have to lay up, meaning more players hit more fairways.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Colonial.

This is based on the most important stats for Colonial, based on data from last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Colonial was 70.72, making it the 11th hardest course last year. The year before, it played a half a shot easier, at 70.21, making it the 18th hardest course in 2021. The year before that, it played three-quarters of a shot easier at 69.57, mainly because it was played a month later as the course was dry, with no winds. That is the key to this course. If there is no wind, it plays much easier, but with wind, like in 2019, it played to a 70.86 and was the 7th hardest course of the year. In 2018 with favorable wind conditions and a soft course, it played a 69.83 average, T-20th in course rankings. In 2017, Colonial was 71.15 (lots of wind every day), making it the 7th hardest course on Tour that year as the course played over a shot a round over par. In 2016 Colonial was 70.20, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter of a shot over par and almost a half a shot harder than the course played in 2015 when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015. So why the difference? Rain and wind in 2015, they had flooding conditions the week before the tournament, and the course was very wet. On top of that, winds averaged between 10-15 mph. In 2016 the course didn’t have as much rain, and winds blew up to 20 mph the first three days and calmed a bit for the final round. But in 2017, winds blew each day at around 20 mph, which made the course play very tough, the hardest it’s played since 2002 when the course played to a 71.21 average and ranked 6th on Tour. So as we can see, mother nature and wind dictate how tough each Charles Schwab Challenge will be.
So how is the weather going to be for this Year? For this week, temperatures will be in the high 80s with winds of only 9 mph the first three days, going up to 11 mph on Sunday with temperature going up to 88.

Colonial Country Club is a relic of a bygone era in which accuracy off the tee makes precision shotmaking to the greens essential. On top of that, when the course is dry with lots of runs, put in some wind, and it can play tough. But with no or little wind and dry conditions, you will see many birdies and eagles, which has happened over the years. You can’t overpower this course. In past years, you didn’t see long-ball hitters like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Luke List, and J.B. Holmes here. This year only two players who are in the top ten of driving distance for 2023 are in the field, Cameron Champ and Byeong Hun An, are in the field. Bryson DeChambeau showed the vulnerability of Colonial Country Club in 2020. With his newfound power, DeChambeau could fly over the trees and cut off the doglegs. For four days at Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau flexed his muscles with 19 drives of 330 or more yards. DeChambeau missed a short putt at 17, making a bogey, and was a shot back of the Daniel Berger/Collin Morikawa playoff at the end of the day. What DeChambeau did was lay out the groundwork for an all-out assault on Colonial Country Club. Surprisingly after what happened in 2020, DaChambeau has not been back to Colonial, and with him being on LIV, golf will be playing in Washington, D.C., instead of Ft. Worth.

Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years has won at Colonial (except for Tiger Woods), as Justin Rose was added to the list in 2018, which includes Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott and Mickelson to name a few. In looking at the key to playing well at Colonial, the most important stat is Ball Striking (which the PGA Tour doesn’t include in course stats). Looking at the list for 2023, the odds are a player in the top 30 of that list will come out on top this week. Just look at the list. Some of the players at the top in the field include Scottie Scheffler (1st), Will Gordon (6th), Hayden Buckley (7th), Akshay Bhatia (9th), and Collin Morikawa (T-10th), to name those in the top-12.

So who will win this week? Tell you this; it will be a guy with a lot of fitness and a sharp iron player. Look at last year’s winner Sam Burns who fit the bill perfectly when you see that in Strokes Gained Total, Burns was 1st last year at Colonial. So why is this so important in a time when overpowering courses are the norm? There is no room to add yardage to Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players must throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. That is why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and Daniel Berger have won this event.

In looking at our four categories, Fairway Accuracy is crucial. Last year, Colonial was the 13th hardest course to get into the fairway, while last year’s winner Sam Burns was 38th in fairway hit. Our second stat is greens in regulation; last year, Colonial ranked 9th, while Burns ranked T-7th in this stat, hitting 48 of 72 greens. Since 2001, five winners have led this stat to show the importance. In the last six years, Kevin Na and Justin Rose led the stat; in 2017, Kevin Kisner was 2nd with Berger T-4th in 2020.
Our third stat is Par Breakers. Last year Colonial ranked 9th overall, while Burns was 1st in this stat. Our last stat is Strokes Gained Putting, as Burns was 6th in this stat. As Colonial doesn’t keep track of that stat tournament-wise, I can tell you this: six of the last 21 winners have led in the total number of strokes, so putting is very important.
So with perfect weather, you won’t have any “non-marquee” type of winner; the man who wins on Sunday will be a player who has won before and many times on the PGA Tour. To show how much this means something, since 1990, only one winner never won on the PGA Tour, and that was Sergio Garcia, who had won twice on the European Tour.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so parbreakers is the percent of time scores are under par.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 112 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the stats for the players at Colonial

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 PGA Championship (We don’t include team events), a total of 69 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least nine events:

Of the 120 in the field, 92 have played at least once at Colonial in the Charles Schwab since 2010.

• Jordan Spieth is 90 under in 40 rounds, playing 10 years
• Zach Johnson is 48 under in 48 rounds, playing 13 years
• Tony Finau is 36 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Chris Kirk is 31 under in 44 rounds, playing 11 years
• Brian Harman is 30 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Justin Rose is 30 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Kevin Kisner is 30 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Harris English is 25 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Collin Morikawa is 18 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Ryan Palmer is 18 under in 44 rounds, playing 13 years
• Russell Knox is 16 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Ben Martin is 15 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Rory Sabbatini is 15 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• David Lingmerth is 14 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 14 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Maverick McNealy is 12 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Andrew Putnam is 11 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• Viktor Hovland is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Brendon Todd is 8 under in 23 rounds, playing 7 years
• Sungjae Im is 8 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Davis Riley is 7 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 7 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Tyler Duncan is 7 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Billy Horschel is 5 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Cam Davis is 5 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Jordan Spieth is 90 under, playing 10 years (-9.0)
• Collin Morikawa is 18 under, playing 3 years (-6.0)
• Tony Finau is 36 under, playing 7 years (-5.1)
• Justin Rose is 30 under, playing 6 years (-5.0)
• Viktor Hovland is 10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Zach Johnson is 48 under, playing 13 years (-3.7)
• Harris English is 25 under, playing 7 years (-3.6)
• Kevin Kisner is 30 under, playing 9 years (-3.3)
• Brian Harman is 30 under, playing 10 years (-3.0)
• Ben Martin is 15 under, playing 5 years (-3.0)
• Maverick McNealy is 12 under, playing 4 years (-3.0)
• Chris Kirk is 31 under, playing 11 years (-2.8)
• David Lingmerth is 14 under, playing 5 years (-2.8)
• Russell Knox is 16 under, playing 7 years (-2.3)
• Scottie Scheffler is 7 under, playing 3 years (-2.3)
• Tyler Duncan is 7 under, playing 3 years (-2.3)
• Andrew Putnam is 11 under, playing 5 years (-2.2)
• Emiliano Grillo is 14 under, playing 7 years (-2.0)
• Sungjae Im is 8 under, playing 4 years (-2.0)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout is 4 under, playing 2 years (-2.0)
• Cam Davis is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Ryan Palmer is 18 under, playing 13 years (-1.4)
• Rory Sabbatini is 15 under, playing 12 years (-1.3)
• Brendon Todd is 8 under, playing 7 years (-1.1)
• Billy Horschel is 5 under, playing 5 years (-1.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,500
• Tony Finau – $10,700
• Viktor Hovland – $10,600
• Collin Morikawa – $10,400
• Max Homa – $10,100
• Jordan Spieth – $9,900
• Sam Burns – $9,700
• Sungjae Im – $9,500
• Justin Rose – $9,300
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200
• Chris Kirk – $9,100
• Si Woo Kim – $9,000

Off the bat, we have to make a decision on Scottie Scheffler at $11,500.  As I wrote above, he is a really great player, and no matter what his price, most of the time, he gets the job done and racks up a lot of points.  Last year he was 2nd, and all year has played great, I don’t see any reason not to pick him other than the high price.  Tony Finau at $10,700 is a tough go, since winning in Mexico has struggled, he shot 77 on Sunday at the PGA.  His record is good at Colonial, and other than the high price don’t see why you shouldn’t pick him.  Viktor Hovland at $10,600 has played well, came close at the PGA Championship, and was T-7th at the Masters and T-3rd at the Players.  Think he is close to winning. Just don’t think it will be this week.  I can’t fathom anyone picking Collin Morikawa at $10,400.  He hasn’t played well since the west coast swing, and he has degress at Colonial after finishing 2nd in 2000.  Save the money and go in another direction.  Max Homa at $10,100 could be a good pick, the course is up his alley and he has played well of late, he can surprise all of us.  Jordan Spieth at $9,900 normally would be a good pick, but I think he is tired and could be a bit in need of a rest.  Sam Burns at $9,700 is our defending champion, and since winning the match play has struggled.  Just think he will be a very bad pick for this week.  Sungjae Im at $9,500 is a good player if you need a top-ten, but he is priced too high.  I don’t think he will be a good pick for this week.  I like Justin Rose a lot even at $9,300.  Think he comes to a course he can do well on and show us at Oak Hill he still has the game on a tough course.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,200 could also work out, his game is getting better, and the course is up his alley.  Chris Kirk at $9,100 is also a good pick, he plays well on this course, and his game is solid.  Si Woo Kim at $9,000 is a no, he has never played well at Colonial and missed the cut at the PGA.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the Colonial going back to 2010 on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Colonial starts:

• Chris Kirk made 11 cuts in 11 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,100.
• Jordan Spieth made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Tony Finau made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,700.
• Ben Martin made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Mark Hubbard made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Collin Morikawa made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Tyler Duncan made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Byeong Hun An made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Emiliano Grillo made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Zach Johnson made 11 cuts in 13 starts for a 84.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Justin Rose made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.
• Brian Harman made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• David Lingmerth made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Billy Horschel made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Rory Sabbatini made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Jimmy Walker made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Maverick McNealy made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Troy Merritt made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Adam Long made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Richy Werenski made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Harris English made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Brendon Todd made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Russell Knox made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Ryan Palmer made 9 cuts in 13 starts for a 69.2%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Kevin Kisner made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Rickie Fowler made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Cam Davis made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Sam Burns made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Cam Davis at $8,600 is good, he has played well at Colonial and had a good week at Oak Hill.  Also, like Min Woo Lee at $8,400.  With his T-18th at the PGA, he now has membership on the PGA Tour for the rest of the year, so look for good things from him this week.  Stephan Jaeger at $8,100 is a good pick.  Has been consistent and makes a lot of cuts.  Kurt Kitayama at $7,900 is a must-use pick, is playing well was T-4th at the PGA, and the course fits his game.  Byeong Hun An at $7,900 is also a good pick because the course is good for his game, and he is playing well now.  Harris English at $7,800 is good because he has been up and down this year but plays well at Colonial.  Ryan Fox at $7,500 is a good choice, the course should be ok for him in his debut.

Any bargains out there?

Looking for those diamonds in the rough?  A perfect example is Davis Riley at $7,400, he was T-4th last year at Colonial but has missed three cuts in a row.  So he is a toss up choice, I am taking him.  Billy Horscel at $7,400 is another of those off-and-on players that you have to take a chance on this week.  Ryan Palmer at $7,200 is also a good choice.  Makes a lot of cuts. Think his game will be good this week.  Eric Cole at $7,200 is another gamble that is worth taking, played well at the PGA Championship.  Ben Martin at $6,800 is a good pick, is five for five in making cuts at Colonial, yes he missed the cut at Wells Fargo but played well in the events before that.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Charles Schwab Challenge:

The key stat for the winner:

• Experience at Colonial seems to be an essential part of winning.  Since 1996, 24 players have won at Colonial and have a total of 278 victories, so that means an average of 12.2 wins for each of the champions.  Last year’s winner Sam Burns won four times, Jason Kokrak won twice, Daniel Berger and 2019 champion Kevin Na won for the 3rd time and all won again within six months, Kokrak at Houston, Berger at the AT&T and Na at the Shriners Hospitals.  2018 winner Justin Rose won three other times after winning the Colinial, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the 8th time while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.  In 2012 Zach Johnson won for the 8th time in his career as winners range from Tom Watson with 34 wins and Nick Price with 18 to Sergio Garcia, who made Colonial his first PGA Tour win in 2001.  The fact is rookies don’t win at Colonial.  Yes, Sergio Garcia got his first PGA Tour win at Colonial but he had won in Europe.  The same happened with the next first-time winner Ian Baker-Finch in 1989, he had won in Australia.  In looking at the 75-year history of Charles Schwab, only eight first winners have done the deed, which tells us to look for an experienced person to win.

Another key:

• Look at all of the champions; you will see one thing in common, they are accurate drivers of the ball, which historically has been very important in winning at Colonial.  The bottom line is wild drivers don’t win here.  Now, of course, there is always an exception to the rule, in 2016 Jordan Spieth only hit 38 fairways and ranked T-54th.  The previous year Chris Kirk only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-60th, while in 2007, Rory Sabbatini only hit 29 fairways and ranked T60th.   However, last year Daniel Berger was T-17th, the same as Kevin Na. In 2018 Justin Rouse was 6th in driving accuracy, in 2017, Kevin Kisner hit 40 fairways and ranked 1st getting us back to the era between 1998 and 2005 when all the winners didn’t rank higher than 9th in fairway accuracy, with seven of them being in the top-five. Driving accuracy is still critical in winning this event.
• An important stat to look at to gauge the champion this week is strokes gained tee-to-green.
• Look at this list of players for 2023 in strokes gained tee-to-green, I feel that one of those in the top-30 of this list will probably be the winner this week.  1st on the list is Scottie Scheffler, 4th on the list is Tony Finau, 5th on the list is Collin Morikawa, 9th on the list is Tommy Fleetwood, and 11th on the list is Viktor Hovland.
• Shot-making is almost a lost art, and if you look at all of the champions in this millennium, all of them were great shotmakers.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.  Now there is another way, if you don’t hit greens, that is scrambling.   Look at the chart below of the last eleven winners, in looking at the two stats hitting greens or scrambling, and you will see a key for winning.

• Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but the weather in Texas can sometimes be iffy in May. But this week is going to be one of the most consistent weeks, every day will be between 85 and 89, but look for some winds on Saturday and Sunday.